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Iran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a live weapons system, driving tanker traffic to a standstill and exposing just how thin Europe’s “post‑Russia” energy strategy really is. In Ukraine, Russia is throwing massed drones and artillery at the grid while Ukrainian forces notch local gains and President Zelensky now claims about 460 square kilometres liberated since late January—making Western delivery schedules, not Ukrainian will, the real constraint. And in India, New Delhi has locked in a politically committed interim trade framework with Washington while simultaneously deepening a “middle powers” track with Ottawa and others, signalling that it wants access to a Western Indo‑Rim (WIRO) system without accepting one‑way vulnerability to U.S. tariffs or Russian arms delays.

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A World On Fire | EU-North American Spotlight and Ukraine and Middle East War Coverage

European Union

Hormuz, WIRO, and Europe’s Second Energy Shock

What looked like a short, sharp scare in Hormuz has become a multi‑week choke on the West’s second major energy corridor.

* 02‑28 onward – IRAN – STRAIT OF HORMUZ – After an escalation that included attacks on several commercial vessels, tanker traffic through Hormuz has “nearly ceased,” with more than 200 ships stranded in and around the strait.

* 03‑01 to 03‑04 – GULF / GLOBAL – Brent has climbed roughly 12 percent week‑on‑week, European gas benchmarks have spiked about 50 percent, and analysts now warn that the real risk is a gas/LNG shock more than an oil shock.

* 03‑02 – QATAR – LNG – QatarEnergy declares force majeure on LNG exports after Iran‑related attacks and halts liquefaction, with expectations that normal export volumes will not resume for at least a month.

* 03‑04 – IRAQ / KUWAIT – OIL – J.P. Morgan and Iraqi officials say Iraq and Kuwait could be forced to curb output by more than 3 million barrels per day within days if Hormuz remains blocked, with total regional shut‑ins potentially reaching 3.8–4.7 million bpd within two to three weeks.​

* 03‑02 to 03‑04 – EU – BRUSSELS – Beyond convening the gas coordination group, the European Commission backs creation of an energy crisis task force to manage price spikes and supply security as storage sits roughly a third below the five‑year average.

“The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz would force Iraq and Kuwait to curb output within days… J.P. Morgan estimates exports from the region could be cut by up to 4.7 million barrels per day.”​

Reuters

“The Iran war is more likely to deliver a gas shock than an oil shock for Europe, given its dependence on Qatari LNG, even after diversifying away from Russian pipeline gas.”​

The Guardian

This is the first real test of what we call the Western Indo‑Rim system—WIRO. Geographically, it is the Western Indian Ocean Region: Hormuz, the Gulf of Aden, Bab el‑Mandeb, down through the Mozambique Channel, carrying a huge share of global oil, LNG, and container traffic. For India, this is the arena where it wants to act as a “net security provider”; for Europe, it is the corridor that replaced Russia’s cheap pipeline gas with Gulf and Qatari flows.

Systemically, WIRO is supposed to marry:

* Western and partner navies securing chokepoints;

* EU and U.S. industrial policy is building redundancy into energy and defence supply chains;

* A rules‑based order that keeps Chinese and Russian leverage in check across these waters.

Hormuz shows how incomplete that project is. If WIRO were mature, an Iranian drone and missile campaign would hurt—but the combination of diversified LNG, alternative corridors, and pre‑baked crisis instruments would stop it from becoming a multi‑week systemic shock. Instead, Brussels is scrambling to stand up an energy crisis task force while European refiners, airlines, and industrial users reprice everything from jet fuel to fertiliser. The EU’s push for “Made in Europe” industrial policy and strict digital rules on U.S. platforms collides with this reality: Europe wants a shielded WIRO, but it has spent years fighting with Washington and Ottawa over who pays for resilience and whose firms benefit. Hormuz has turned that contradiction into a live cost centre.

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United States & Canada

U.S. Maritime Guarantees, Unconvinced Markets, and Canadian Chokepoints

Washington is discovering that carrier groups and escort plans are necessary but not sufficient when insurers and traders are already pricing for a long war.

* 03‑02 to 03‑04 – U.S. / GULF – President Donald Trump unveils a plan combining naval escorts, shipping guarantees, and emergency energy releases to restore confidence in Hormuz routes.

* 03‑03 to 03‑04 – OIL & GAS MARKETS – Brent hits back‑to‑back 52‑week highs, European gas posts its biggest rally in four years, and LNG analytics firms highlight Asia and Europe as the regions most exposed to prolonged disruption.

* 03‑02 onward – SHIPPING – Oil and gas majors, plus trading houses, suspend shipments via Hormuz; by day five of the stand‑off, many tankers are still stranded, and refiners in Asia are cutting runs rather than betting on a quick fix.

“Trump’s Hormuz plan may help at the margin but is unlikely to reverse the broader pullback in insurance and cargo flows… The market is moving faster than policy.”​

Analyst Note

The signal here is brutal: markets no longer treat U.S. naval assurances as a silver bullet. They matter—they cap tail‑risk scenarios—but they don’t erase insurers’ fear of repeated strikes or the structural reality that Iran can harass the strait with drones and small boats for months. In WIRO terms, that means U.S. power buys time, not certainty, and allies are watching how much of that time Washington can convert into real diversification rather than just rhetoric.

Canada, meanwhile, is tightening its own leverage over alliance logistics. Ottawa’s updated approach to military and high‑risk overflights—scrutinising and in some cases constraining certain routes and cargoes—is not about this week’s crisis but about the next decade’s. In a North American air‑defence space already integrated through NORAD, Canadian control over key air corridors is a reminder that even within the West, chokepoints are becoming policy tools. When you combine that with the EU’s regulatory warfare against U.S. platforms and the U.S.'s tariff and sanctions volatility, you get a picture of an alliance moving toward militant interdependence rather than seamless solidarity.​​

Ukraine

March 3 Map: Contested Ground, Punished Grid

The latest March 3 campaign assessments show a front that is grinding but not static—and a Russian strategy still focused on making Ukraine dark before trying to take more ground.

* Late January–end February – UKRAINE – MULTIPLE FRONTS – Ukrainian forces conduct counterattacks in the Orikhiv–Huliaipole–Oleksandrivka belts and near Pokrovsk, liberating dozens of localities and, by government count, about 460 square kilometres since late January.

* 03‑03 – UKRAINE – NOVOPAVLIVKA DIRECTION – ISW geolocates a recent Ukrainian advance southwest of Novomykolaivka along the Novopavlivka axis, indicating that Kyiv is still finding tactical opportunities despite Russian pressure.

* 03‑03 – ENTIRE FRONT – ISW notes that Russian forces have not made confirmed advances in key sectors such as Slovyansk, Dobropillia, Pokrovsk, Oleksandrivka, and western Zaporizhzhia in the last 24–48 hours, even though fighting remains intense.

* February–early March – UKRAINE – NATIONAL – Russia continues large‑scale drone and missile barrages against energy infrastructure—some involving hundreds of projectiles in a single night—causing rolling blackouts and stressing Ukraine’s grid as winter ends.

“Ukrainian forces have recently made a confirmed advance southwest of Novomykolaivka along the Novopavlivka axis.”​

ISW

“President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces have liberated about 460 square kilometers of territory since late January.”​

ISW

The shape of the war has not changed: Russia trades missiles for megawatts, hoping that grid damage, blackouts, and industrial disruption will weaken Ukraine’s ability to sustain offensive operations heading into a likely spring–summer push. Ukraine’s counterattacks show that where it can concentrate munitions, ISR, and mobile units, it can still claw back ground and impose costs. But every new Russian barrage is also a reminder that air‑defence interceptors, shells, and repair equipment are the binding constraints.

That circles back to Western credibility. Kyiv now bases its public claims of progress on geolocated gains and independent mapping; its allies need to match that transparency with delivery timelines that are measured in weeks, not months. For middle powers watching from New Delhi or Ottawa, the question is simple: if this is how slowly the West can move for a partner it calls “existential,” what happens to them when their crisis hits?

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India

The India–U.S. Framework: Locked In, With an Escape Hatch

India has gone from negotiating to owning an interim trade framework with Washington—even as it keeps an exit ramp for future U.S. tariff shocks and deepens its middle‑powers hedge.

* 02‑02 to 02‑03 – INDIA / U.S. – DEAL TERMS – U.S. and Indian officials confirm an interim trade framework under which:

* U.S. tariffs on many Indian exports, previously set at about 50 percent (a reciprocal tariff plus a Russia‑oil penalty), are to be reduced to an 18 percent baseline.

* India commits to purchasing roughly $ 500 billion in U.S. goods over five years, including petroleum, defence equipment, electronics, aircraft, pharmaceuticals, telecoms, and coking coal.

* 02‑05 to 02‑06 – JOINT STATEMENT & FRAMEWORK – A White House joint statement and “interim framework” fact sheet confirm this structure and commit both sides to “swiftly implement this framework” while they work toward a broader Bilateral Trade Agreement.

* 02‑08 to 02‑10 – TARIFF MECHANICS – Legal and tax briefings note that the U.S. has removed additional Section 232 tariffs on Indian imports tied to Russian oil and that a flat tariff layer introduced after the Supreme Court ruling sits on top of—but does not cancel—the India‑specific framework.

* 02‑22 to 02‑24 – POLITICAL ADJUSTMENT – After the Supreme Court rules that Trump exceeded his authority on certain emergency tariffs, Trump imposes a new across‑the‑board temporary tariff; India delays a negotiators’ visit but Trade Minister Piyush Goyal later says talks will resume “with more clarity on tariffs,” stressing that the framework includes a “modify commitments” clause for renegotiation if either side changes its tariff stance.

“India’s commitment to buy US goods under the deal includes petroleum, defence, aircraft, electronics, pharmaceuticals and telecom products worth around $500 billion over five years.”

Reuters

“The US and India released a framework for an interim trade deal that slashes tariffs and commits both sides to swiftly implement the agreement while they work toward a broader pact.”

Reuters

The bottom line: the framework is real and politically locked in, even if some tariff tables and legal details are still being codified for a planned March signature. India gets relief on punitive U.S. tariffs and a clearer path into the American market; Washington gets a huge, multi‑year export pipeline that redirects Indian demand away from Russian oil and some Chinese goods. But the “modify commitments” clause and India’s willingness to briefly delay high‑level talks after the Supreme Court ruling show that New Delhi has no intention of being trapped by a single U.S. leader’s tariff whims.

That’s where the middle‑powers track comes in.

* 02‑27 – INDIA / CANADA – Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visits India as part of a “middle powers” tour to boost trade and mend ties, with a target of a comprehensive deal by November that includes a C$2.8 billion uranium package and cooperation in energy, AI, quantum, and education.​

* Indian and Canadian officials frame this explicitly as a “middle powers” agenda—coordinating to enable mid‑sized states to bargain collectively with the U.S., EU, and China rather than as isolated rule‑takers.​

Taken together, India’s position is clear: it wants the benefits of WIRO—secure sea lanes, diversified supply, privileged access to Western markets—without gambling its future on any single supplier or legal regime. The interim framework with Washington gives it leverage and access; the middle‑powers spine running through Ottawa and others gives it options.

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Sources and Further Reading

Reuters – “Gulf shipping crisis deepens as tankers stranded for fifth day, US hits Iranian warship” – 4 March 2026.​

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/hormuz-shutdown-worsens-after-us-hits-iranian-warship-tankers-stranded-fifth-day-2026-03-04/

Reuters – “Oil and gas majors and traders suspend shipments via Hormuz, sources say” – 28 February 2026.​

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-gas-majors-traders-suspend-shipments-via-hormuz-us-attacks-iran-sources-say-2026-02-28/

Reuters – “Hormuz shutdown could force Iraq, Kuwait to curb oil output within days – J.P. Morgan” – 4 March 2026.​

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/hormuz-shutdown-could-force-iraq-kuwait-curb-oil-output-within-days-jp-morgan-2026-03-04/

Reuters – “Explainer: Europe braces for economic hit from Iran conflict” – 2 March 2026.​

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-braces-economic-hit-iran-conflict-2026-03-02/

Reuters – “Asia, Europe most exposed to LNG impact from Iran conflict, Vortexa says” – 2 March 2026.​

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/asia-europe-most-exposed-lng-impact-iran-conflict-vortexa-says-2026-03-02/

The Guardian – “A gas shock, not an oil shock, from the Iran war looks more threatening” – 2 March 2026.​

https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2026/mar/02/gas-shock-oil-iran-war-qatari-lng-strait-of-hormuz

Energy Intelligence – “Europe’s Critical Jet and Diesel Supply Trapped by Hormuz Closure” – 1 March 2026.​

https://www.energyintel.com/0000019c-ae2e-df3a-a59c-bf3e09960000

Reuters – “EU calls gas supply group meeting in response to Iran conflict” – 2 March 2026.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-convene-gas-supply-meeting-iran-conflict-impact-2026-03-02/

Yahoo News (via wires) – “EU announces energy crisis task force after war-related price rises” – 2 March 2026.​

https://www.yahoo.com/news/eu-announces-energy-crisis-task-211336558.html

Reuters – “Trump’s Hormuz shipping plan is too little, too late in race to avert energy shock” – 4 March 2026.​

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/trumps-hormuz-shipping-plan-is-too-little-too-late-race-avert-energy-shock-2026-03-04/

CNBC – “The Strait of Hormuz is facing a blockade. These countries will be most impacted” – 3 March 2026.​

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/03/strait-of-hormuz-closure-which-countries-will-be-hit-the-most.html

CNBC – “Strait of Hormuz crisis explained: What it means for global shipping” – 2 March 2026.​

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/02/strait-of-hormuz-crisis-us-iran-israel-war-shipping-trade-oil.html

Bloomberg – “European Gas Pulls Back as Traders Weigh US Moves in Middle East” – 4 March 2026.​

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-04/europe-gas-rises-again-as-shippers-unconvinced-by-us-hormuz-plan

ISW – “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 3, 2026” – 3 March 2026.

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-3-2026

ReliefWeb – “Ukraine war situation update | 7–13 February 2026” – 25 February 2026.​

https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/ukraine-war-situation-update-7-13-february-2026

ISW – “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 17, 2026” – 17 February 2026.​

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-17-2026

ISW – “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 26, 2026” – 26 February 2026.​

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-26-2026

Mezha – “Ukraine frontline update, February 27 2026: 120 engagements and Russian assaults across fronts” – 27 February 2026.​

https://mezha.net/eng/bukvy/ukraine-frontline-update-february-27-2026-120-engagements-and-russian-assaults-across-fronts/

CSIS – “Guns and Oil: Continuity and Change in Russia‑India Relations” – 25 August 2025.​

https://www.csis.org/analysis/guns-and-oil-continuity-and-change-russia-india-relations

Reuters – “India’s commitment to buy US goods under deal includes petroleum, defence, aircraft, official says” – 2 February 2026.

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-commitment-buy-us-goods-under-deal-includes-petroleum-defence-aircraft-2026-02-03/

Reuters – “India-US trade deal slashes tariffs, lifts exports and markets” – 3 February 2026.​

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-us-trade-deal-slashes-tariffs-lifts-exports-markets-2026-02-03/

Reuters – “Highlights of U.S.-India interim trade framework” – 6 February 2026.​

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/highlights-us-india-interim-trade-framework-2026-02-07/

Reuters – “US, India release framework for an interim trade deal” – 6 February 2026.​

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/us-india-release-framework-an-interim-trade-deal-2026-02-06/

The White House – “United States‑India Joint Statement” – 5 February 2026.​

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2026/02/united-states-india-joint-statement/

KPMG – “United States removes additional tariffs on imports from India” – 8 February 2026.​

https://kpmg.com/us/en/taxnewsflash/news/2026/02/united-states-removes-tariffs-imports-india.html

International Trade Compliance Update – “US and India Announce Framework Trade Agreement to Ease Tariffs” – 10 February 2026.​

https://www.internationaltradecomplianceupdate.com/2026/02/11/us-and-india-announce-framework-trade-agreement-to-ease-tariffs/

Morgan Lewis – “US-India Trade Deal Cuts Tariffs, Eases Tensions” – 16 February 2026.​

https://www.morganlewis.com/pubs/2026/02/us-india-trade-deal-cuts-tariffs-eases-tensions

Reuters – “India focused on getting best trade deal with US, Indian trade minister says” – 27 February 2026.​

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-focused-getting-best-trade-deal-with-us-indian-trade-minister-says-2026-02-27/

Reuters – “India-US will resume trade talks with more clarity on tariffs, minister says” – 24 February 2026.​

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-us-will-resume-trade-talks-with-more-clarity-tariffs-minister-says-2026-02-24/

Reuters – “India delays U.S. trade talks after Supreme Court rejects Trump tariffs, source says” – 22 February 2026.​

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-delays-us-trade-talks-after-supreme-court-rejects-trump-tariffs-source-says-2026-02-22/

The Indian Express – “India-US trade deal: Why a ‘modify commitments’ clause in it matters” – 23 February 2026.​https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/india-us-trade-deal-modify-commitments-clause-10547517/

Reuters – “Canada’s Carney visits India to boost trade, mend ties on latest ‘middle powers’ trip” – 27 February 2026.​https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-carney-visits-india-boost-trade-mend-ties-latest-middle-powers-trip-2026-02-27/

NESA Center – “Western Indian Ocean Region and Strategic Competition” – participant report.​https://nesa-center.org/dev/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Western-IOR-Strategic-Competition-Participant-Report2.pdf

Vision IAS – “Evolving Geopolitical Centrality of the Western Indian Ocean Region” – 27 October 2025.​https://visionias.in/current-affairs/evolving-geopolitical-centrality-of-the-western-indian-ocean-region

IRAN WAR UPDATES

This Week's Reports

Thank you Elizabeth Raven, Under the Golden Boot, Ms.Yuse, Susan J, Lizzy B, and many others for tuning into my live video with Banner & Backbone Media! Join me for my next live video in the app.

Africa is no longer just a “resource frontier”; it is becoming the operating system for the next phase of great‑power confrontation, supply‑chain warfare, and regime survival politics. From the Sahel to the Horn and the Great Lakes, wars that look local on the surface are increasingly structured around control of minerals, trade corridors, and leverage over Western and Chinese vulnerabilities. If you only see “coups,” “rebels,” and “terrorists,” you will miss the deeper code that is being written into the global economy.

This Africa Spotlight tracks three converging arcs: the militarization of the Sahel as Russia’s Africa Corps digs in around jihadist insurgencies; the slide back toward large‑scale war in Ethiopia, which would redraw risk in the Red Sea and energy lanes; and the transformation of eastern Congo into a live‑fire lab for drone warfare and resource capture. Together, they tell one story: whoever governs African logistics, minerals, and airspace over the next decade will quietly write the rules for everyone else’s industrial strategy.

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A World On Fire | African Spotlight w/ Middle Eastern Wars Coverage

Ethiopia

“Ethiopia Prepares for War Again”

Ethiopia is edging back toward major war in the north, with federal forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front re‑arming and repositioning around Tigray barely a year after the Pretoria peace deal was supposed to end the last conflict. Addis Ababa is simultaneously fighting a grinding insurgency by the Oromo Liberation Army across central and western regions, raising the risk that any northern offensive will overstretch the state and re‑open multiple fronts at once.

* 2025–early 2026 — Federal–TPLF talks stall over demobilization, disputed territories, and the return of displaced Tigrayans, eroding implementation of the Pretoria agreement.

* Late January 2026 — Clashes and drone strikes hit Tsemlet and near Enticho as federal and Tigrayan units test each other’s lines in northern Ethiopia.

* February 18, 2026 — Tigray interim leader Tadesse Worede warns there is only a “slim chance” for peace, while Tigrayan forces mass artillery and armor near the front.

* November 2025–February 2026 — Federal troop redeployments away from Oromia allow the OLA to expand operations, including in Benishangul‑Gumuz and areas closer to Addis Ababa.

“The Ethiopian federal government will likely launch an offensive against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) within the next month to neutralize the TPLF and its role in an emerging…anti‑government coalition.”​— Critical Threats Project

A renewed Ethiopia–Tigray war would not be a contained replay of 2020–2022; it would land in a more fragile region with a live Sudan war to the west, a militarized Red Sea to the northeast, and a more fragmented Ethiopian political space. If Eritrea deepens support to anti‑Addis coalitions while Gulf actors hedge across the Red Sea, you get a structural scenario where the Horn becomes a continuous conflict corridor linking Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia, with direct implications for shipping security, food imports, and refugee flows into Europe. Watch for three triggers: sustained drone strikes deep into Tigray, overt Eritrean deployments near the border, and signs that OLA units are exploiting federal redeployments to close in on key roads around Addis.

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Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger)

“Africa Corps and the Sahel Regime‑Survival Zone”

The central Sahel is hardening into a Russian‑backed regime‑survival zone, where juntas in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger trade long‑term sovereignty for short‑term protection from jihadist insurgents and domestic opposition. The result is a paradox: more foreign troops on the ground and more extremist violence, especially in Burkina Faso, which is now the epicenter of mass‑fatality attacks in the region.

* 2022–2023 — Coups in all three states topple civilian or semi‑civilian governments amid rising jihadist attacks and frustration with French‑led security models.

* 2024–2025 — Russian Wagner‑successor forces (now branded “Africa Corps”) expand their footprint in Mali and begin anchoring security cooperation with Sahel juntas.

* September 2025 — Al‑Qaeda‑linked JNIM imposes a blockade on Bamako, hitting fuel convoys along a corridor that carries roughly 60% of Mali’s trade.​

* February 2026 — Reports indicate up to 3,500 Russian troops in Mali, with thousands more expected, even as jihadist attacks intensify in Burkina Faso with unprecedented operational coordination.

“Russia is increasing Africa Corps deployments to the Sahel…Mali will reportedly pay $35 million monthly to maintain this quantity of Africa Corps forces.”​— Critical Threats Africa File

In the Sahel, the mineral war is less about lithium and more about political capital: the juntas are monetizing access, basing rights, and future resource concessions in exchange for regime security, while jihadist groups refine siege warfare against capitals and trade arteries. The long‑term risk is that an “Authoritarian Security Belt” solidifies from Guinea through Burkina, Mali, and Niger into Chad, underwritten by Russian and possibly Gulf funding, functionally decoupled from Western leverage and increasingly hostile to ECOWAS and the AU. If that belt consolidates, sanctions and diplomatic pressure will do less than disruptions to physical trade corridors and financial flows; investors should assume rising volatility around mining concessions, rail projects, and power infrastructure in these states over the next five years.

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

“The Drone War Over Lithium and the M23 Front”

Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo has moved into a new phase: a drone‑enabled, resource‑linked conflict where Kinshasa and the Rwanda‑backed M23 are fighting over territory that sits on top of some of the world’s most critical mineral deposits. A recent Congolese offensive killed a senior M23 commander in a drone strike even as rebels threatened strategic hubs in North Kivu and South Kivu, underscoring how airpower and denial are being layered onto a long‑running proxy war.

* December 2023 — Disputed national elections in DRC fuel wider political unrest and violence, especially in and around Goma and Kinshasa.

* 2024–2025 — M23 expands territorial control in North Kivu, culminating in the seizure of Goma and tightening pressure on key roads and mining zones.

* 2025 — Kinshasa and M23 sign multiple non‑binding ceasefire and monitoring agreements, but implementation stalls and fighting continues.

* February 24, 2026 — Congolese forces kill M23 military spokesman Willy Ngoma in a drone strike near Rubaya, while a broader FARDC–Wazalendo offensive pushes on several axes toward Masisi, Rubaya, and Ngungu.​

“The Congolese army (FARDC) killed a senior M23 military leader in a drone strike amid an ongoing offensive against Rwandan‑backed M23 rebels in Masisi district in North Kivu.”​— Critical Threats Africa File

This is where the mineral war arc becomes explicit: eastern Congo’s cobalt, lithium, and associated minerals sit at the heart of global battery and EV supply chains, and the battle lines increasingly map onto logistics routes connecting mines to Rwandan and Tanzanian export corridors. If Kinshasa leans further into drone warfare while Rwanda doubles down on deniable deployments, the most likely scenario is not a clear victory but a “permanent war economy” where armed actors, foreign military partners, and political elites arbitrage insecurity into contracts and concessions. Expect periodic shock events—attacks on Goma, strikes near major mines, or sabotage against cross‑border infrastructure—to ripple straight into price and risk models for Western and Chinese manufacturers.

Sudan & the Chad Frontier

“Sudan’s Civil War and the Chad Border Lock”

Sudan’s civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is approaching its third year, with western Sudan and the Chad border now central to both humanitarian collapse and military logistics. Chad’s recent decision to close its border after RSF units attacked Chadian forces is a rare case of a neighbor directly contesting RSF’s cross‑border maneuver room and supply lines.

* April 2023 — Full‑scale war erupts between SAF and RSF, rapidly displacing millions and destabilizing Khartoum and Darfur.

* 2024–2025 — RSF consolidates control over most of Darfur and western supply lines, leveraging support from external backers in the Gulf.

* Late 2025 — RSF intensifies operations around Tine, a critical town on the Sudan–Chad border, using it as a staging point for operations and logistics.​

* Early 2026 — RSF attacks a Chadian base near Tine, killing Chadian soldiers; Chad responds by closing the border and counter‑attacking RSF positions.​

“Chad closed its border with Sudan following a Rapid Support Forces (RSF) attack on Chadian forces in Chad, threatening key RSF supply lines amid increased disruptions to other RSF supply lines and advances by the Sudanese Armed Forces.”​— Critical Threats Africa File

The structural story here is not just Sudan’s fragmentation; it is the emergence of a contested logistics spine that runs from Port Sudan through Darfur into Chad, Niger, and Libya. If SAF continues to gain ground in central Sudan while RSF’s western supply chains are squeezed by Chad and targeted by drone strikes, we could see a partial reversal of RSF advances—but at the cost of further weaponizing cross‑border politics and pulling Chad, Libya, and possibly CAR deeper into the war economy. For investors, aid agencies, and policymakers, this axis is a live test of whether border closures and targeted strikes can actually degrade a paramilitary business model built on gold, migration control, and external patronage.

Burkina Faso

“Unprecedented Jihadist Coordination and the Junta’s Bet”

Burkina Faso has become the Sahel’s most acute jihadist battlefield, with militias showing “unprecedented coordination” across attacks even as the ruling junta centralizes power and pushes out Western partners. The country now combines the worst of all worlds: mass‑fatality raids, shrinking state control, and a leadership that is trading strategic flexibility for ideological alignment with fellow juntas and extra‑regional backers.

* 2022 — Captain Ibrahim Traoré seizes power in a coup, citing failure to contain jihadist violence.

* 2023–2024 — Government expels French forces, limits Western engagement, and pivots toward Russia and fellow Sahel juntas for security cooperation.

* 2025 — JNIM and other groups conduct repeated mass‑fatality attacks in northern and eastern Burkina, including multiple strikes on Djibo and surrounding areas.

* February 2026 — Analysts and officials warn of unprecedented coordination in a new wave of attacks, suggesting improved jihadist command and control across regions.

“Burkina Faso—not Mali—is the Sahel’s epicenter of extremist violence as President Traoré restricts dissent and consolidates power.”​— Atlantic Council AfricaSource

From a structural perspective, Burkina Faso is the stress‑test for the entire Sahel junta model: if an authoritarian, Russia‑aligned regime cannot deliver basic security despite full control over the state and security forces, the model’s legitimacy collapses and the only remaining tools are repression and propaganda. For outside actors, that means fewer levers short of outright embargoes, and for local populations it means living inside overlapping systems of coercion: jihadists enforcing parallel rule in the countryside and a paranoid junta policing cities and information space. The medium‑term risk is that this configuration spills further south into coastal West Africa, creating a continuous insecurity belt that directly threatens ports, pipelines, and undersea cables.

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Iran

From Shadow War to Open Theater

Iran has shifted from shadow confrontation into open theater, taking coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes on its territory while launching retaliatory attacks that disrupt Gulf energy and air corridors. The regime, under intense internal strain and facing reports of leadership decapitation at the top, is trying to drive regional costs high enough that Gulf states and major importers pressure Washington toward an off-ramp.

* 2024–2025 — Tehran accelerates regional proxy activity and missile deployments while talks over its nuclear program stall, prompting repeated U.S. and Israeli warnings about red lines.

* Feb. 28, 2026 — Combined U.S.-Israeli strikes hit Iranian nuclear, air defense and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets, triggering air-raid sirens and explosions in Tehran and other major cities.

* Feb. 28–March 2, 2026 — Iran fires ballistic and cruise missiles at U.S., Israeli and allied assets across the region and claims attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure near the Strait of Hormuz.

* Late February–early March 2026 — Airspace closures and missile threats force major hubs in Doha and Dubai to suspend or reroute flights, rapidly exposing how the confrontation can hit global logistics and commercial aviation.

* January–February 2026 — President Donald Trump publicly warns Iran that “bad things” will happen without a “meaningful deal,” effectively setting a short deadline as U.S. forces surge into the region.

“Iran is attempting to disrupt international shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as part of a broader effort to impose a cost on the Gulf states.”— Critical Threats / ISW Iran Update​

From a structural perspective, Iran is stress‑testing the limits of coercive leverage over chokepoints: it is weaponizing energy flows, shipping lanes, and airspace to turn Gulf business and political elites into de-escalation advocates while trying to preserve regime survival. If the confrontation further degrades Iran’s command structure or pushes the system toward internal fragmentation, Tehran may calculate that there is little additional downside in threatening more durable disruptions at Hormuz — a move that would be economically suicidal at home but systemically dangerous for global energy markets, shipping insurance, and aviation routes.

Afghanistan–Pakistan

From Proxy Friction to Declared War

Tensions along the Afghanistan–Pakistan frontier have erupted into what Islamabad is now calling “open war,” after years of disputes over Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan sanctuaries and cross-border attacks. Pakistani air and drone strikes are now hitting targets not only in border provinces but also in and around Kabul, while Taliban forces retaliate with fire on Pakistani positions along the Durand Line. The crisis marks the most serious interstate confrontation between the neighbors since the Taliban’s 2021 takeover, collapsing the fiction that this was only a proxy problem.

* October 2025 — Pakistan launches airstrikes on Taliban-held areas near Kabul and Kandahar, saying it is targeting TTP leadership; the Taliban respond with artillery, drones and assaults on Pakistani border posts.​

* Late 2025 — Islamabad shuts major crossings, including Torkham and Chaman, stranding traders and refugees and reinforcing the frontier with additional troops, armor and surveillance.​

* Feb. 21, 2026 — Pakistan announces “intelligence-based, selective operations” against several TTP and Islamic State-linked camps along the border after a surge of attacks inside Pakistan.​

* Feb. 27, 2026 — Senior Pakistani officials declare their “patience has now run out” as airstrikes hit military targets in and near Kabul; Taliban authorities claim civilian casualties and say they have captured Pakistani soldiers.​

“Our patience has now run out… this is now open war.”— Senior Pakistani official, quoted in The Guardian​

Structurally, the frontier has shifted from a deniable militant buffer to a sovereignty crisis: Pakistan is signaling it will not tolerate a de facto TTP sanctuary on Afghan soil, while the Taliban frames Pakistani strikes as violations of Afghan independence and proof of Islamabad’s alignment with Western security agendas. If this configuration persists, the border is likely to harden into a semi‑permanent conflict zone that disrupts regional trade routes, accelerates refugee flows, and pushes both sides deeper into patronage networks — from China and Gulf states to rival jihadist actors — locking the Afghanistan–Pakistan theater into the wider war architecture now stretching from Iran to the Indian Ocean.

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Sources and Further Reading

Critical Threats Project and Institute for the Study of War, “Iran Update Evening Special Report: March 2, 2026,” March 2, 2026,

https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-evening-special-report-march-2-2026.

ReliefWeb, “Iran, Islamic Republic of – Complex Emergency 2026 (DREF Operation MDRIR018),” Feb. 28, 2026,

https://reliefweb.int/report/iran-islamic-republic/iran-islamic-republic-complex-emergency-2026-dref-operation-mdrir018.

​UN News, “Middle East live: Fourth day of escalating conflict between US, Israel and Iran,” March 2, 2026,

https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/03/1167070.

Center for Strategic and International Studies, “The Regional Reverberations of the U.S. and Israeli Strikes on Iran,” Jan. 2, 2026,

https://www.csis.org/analysis/regional-reverberations-us-and-israeli-strikes-iran.

​Reuters, “Tehran warns of regional conflict if US attacks Iran,” Feb. 1, 2026,

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/tehran-warns-regional-conflict-if-us-attacks-iran-2026-02-01/.

​Reuters, “Trump presses Iran to make ‘meaningful’ deal, appears to set 10-day deadline,” Feb. 19, 2026,

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/russia-warns-escalating-iran-tensions-amid-us-military-build-up-2026-02-19/.

Middle East Council on Global Affairs, “Iran’s Regional Gamble and Its Implications for the Future of Gulf Security,” March 2, 2026,

https://mecouncil.org/blog_posts/irans-regional-gamble-and-its-implications-for-the-future-of-gulf-security/.

Security Council Report, “Emergency Meeting on the Military Escalation in the Middle East,” Feb. 27, 2026,

https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/2026/02/emergency-meeting-on-the-military-escalation-in-the-middle-east.php.

The Guardian, “‘Our patience has now run out’: Pakistan declares ‘open war’ against Afghanistan after cross-border attack,” live coverage, Feb. 27, 2026,

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/feb/27/pakistan-afghanistan-taliban-war-cross-border-kabul-latest-news-updates.

The Guardian, “Pakistan strikes militant hideouts on Afghan border after surge in attacks,” Feb. 21, 2026,

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/21/pakistan-strikes-militant-hideouts-on-afghan-border-after-surge-in-attacks.

Robert Lansing Institute, “Afghanistan–Pakistan Border Clashes, 2025,” Oct. 19, 2025,

https://lansinginstitute.org/2025/10/20/afghanistan-pakistan-border-clashes-2025/.

International Crisis Group. “Seven Peace and Security Priorities for Africa in 2026.” International Crisis Group, 9 Feb. 2026.​

https://www.crisisgroup.org/brf/africa/b209-seven-peace-and-security-priorities-africa-2026

Critical Threats Project. “DRC Offensive Kills M23 Leader; Russia Reinforces Sahel: Africa File.” Critical Threats, 26 Feb. 2026.​

https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/drc-fardc-m23-russia-wagner-mali-burkina-niger-rsf-chad-sudan-fgs-somalia-ghana-aes-eco

International Crisis Group. “Sahel – Watch List and Analysis Hub.” International Crisis Group, 2024–2025.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel

Critical Threats Project. “Ethiopia Prepares For War: Africa File Special Edition.” Critical Threats, 24 Feb. 2026.​

https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ethiopia-tigray-war-tplf-eritrea-sudan-red-sea-africa-file

“Ethiopia Situation Update (5 March 2025).” ReliefWeb, 28 Mar. 2025.​

https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/ethiopia-situation-update-5-march-2025

International Crisis Group. “Democratic Republic of Congo – Conflict Tracker.” International Crisis Group, 2025.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/great-lakes/democratic-republic-congo

“Conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo.” Council on Foreign Relations, 17 Feb. 2026.​

https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violence-democratic-republic-congo

“Islamist Militants Show ‘Unprecedented Coordination’ in Burkina Faso Attacks.” Reuters, 19 Feb. 2026.​

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/islamist-militants-show-unprecedented-coordination-burkina-faso-attacks-2026-02-19/

“The Sahel’s Most Acute Crisis Is Unfolding in Burkina Faso.” Atlantic Council, 22 Feb. 2026.​

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/africasource/the-sahels-most-acute-crisis-is-unfolding-in-burkina-faso/

“Tigray, in Northern Ethiopia, Is Facing the Threat of Another War.” Le Monde, 24 Feb. 2026.​

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/le-monde-africa/article/2026/02/25/tigray-in-northern-ethiopia-is-facing-the-threat-of-another-war_6757749_124.html

“Sudan: Conflict and Humanitarian Situation Briefs, 2024–2025.” ReliefWeb, 2024–2025.​

https://reliefweb.int/updates?search=Sudan%20conflict%202024%202025

Other Iran Updates

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Iran’s retaliatory campaign has now hit every major U.S. footprint in the Gulf plus Israel and Iraq, combining calibrated strikes on 14 U.S. bases with highly visible attacks on civilian “showcase” skylines in Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, Iraq, and Israel. Direct U.S. KIA remain officially low, but cumulative base damage, friendly‑fire aircraft losses, and civilian casualties among allies and migrant workers are creating a strategic picture where Washington and Tel Aviv are losing freedom of action without Iran needing decisive battlefield wins.

The Strait of Hormuz remains functionally closed and is now the primary forcing function on U.S. decision‑making, while Israel has opened or intensified fronts in Lebanon, Gaza, Iran, and the West Bank, approaching structural overextension. Iran’s ballistic launch tempo has dropped by roughly 60% from Day 1, but residual capacity remains sufficient to keep U.S. and allied air defenses overstressed and politically exposed.

If you value structured, source‑driven coverage that treats these events as parts of one global system, this is your daily anchor. Share it, argue with it, and use it to brief your own teams.

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Core Additions in this Update

* Regional Strike Map Completed: Full mapping of all countries and named U.S. bases hit by Iranian missiles/drones, including Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, Iraq, and Israel.

* US Base Impact Matrix: Damage and casualty snapshots for Fifth Fleet Bahrain, Al Dhafra, Ali Al‑Salem, Al Udeid, Muwaffaq Salti, and U.S. sites near Erbil.

* Civilian Signature Targets: Documentation of symbolic hotel, tower, and dense urban hits (Crowne Plaza Manama, Fairmont Dubai, Manama high‑rise, Salman Industrial zone, Tel Aviv, Beit Shemesh, Port of Duqm).

* Gulf Casualty Picture: Confirmed fatalities and wounded in Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Israel; emphasis on expatriate workers and noncombatant civilians.

* Operational Logic: Iran is deliberately combining limited U.S. base damage with high‑visibility civilian disruption to pressure Gulf capitals and global markets without triggering automatic U.S. ground intervention thresholds.

Bottom Line: The battlefield is no longer just Iran versus the U.S. and Israel; it is now Iran versus the regional operating environment of the U.S. Every Gulf capital has been reminded that hosting U.S. power projection carries direct physical and economic cost, while no Iranian air‑defense system has yet had to shoot down a U.S. jet to degrade U.S. combat power. Hormuz, not Tehran, is the decisive center of gravity: if the Strait is not effectively reopened by March 5‑10, economic pressure will force either an Omani‑brokered pause or a politically risky U.S. ground escalation to clear the waterway.

I. REGIONAL STRIKE MAP — U.S. BASES AND CIVILIAN TARGETS

This section consolidates all known countries, U.S. bases, and high‑value civilian sites hit in Iran’s retaliatory waves since February 28.

1. Bahrain

US / Military Sites

* US Fifth Fleet HQ & Service Centre, Juffair

* Targeted by Iranian missiles/drones; satellite and ground imagery show smoke and structural damage to naval support and radar facilities.​

* Operational impact: degraded infrastructure and temporary disruption, but core fleet command continues to function.​

Civilian / Dual‑Use Sites

* Crowne Plaza Manama Hotel

* Drone impact on a property used for U.S. Defense Department meetings.

* Casualties: State‑level reporting indicates 2 U.S. Defense Department personnel injured, not yet reflected in public DoD casualty releases.​

* Era Views / “Breaker” High‑Rise, Manama

* Shahed‑type drone hit upper floors; fire and debris cascaded into surrounding streets.

* Casualties: several Bahraini civilians wounded (low single digits), plus significant property damage.

* Salman Industrial Area / Port‑adjacent Zone

* Hit by falling missile debris and secondary fires following interception.​

* Casualties: 1 Bangladeshi worker killed, 2 injured.​

2. United Arab Emirates (UAE)

US / Military Sites

* Al Dhafra Air Base (near Abu Dhabi)

* Targeted with ballistic missiles; used by U.S., French, and allied air contingents.

* Damage and casualties: reports confirm detonations and intercepts in vicinity, but no publicly confirmed U.S. fatalities; some infrastructure damage consistent with near‑misses or debris.

Civilian / Dual‑Use Sites

* Fairmont Dubai Hotel, Sheikh Zayed Road

* Drone impact on upper floors of a flagship luxury property.

* Casualties: at least 4 injured at the hotel.​

* Dubai and Abu Dhabi Urban Districts; Zayed Port & Jebel Ali Port

* Multiple drones and missile debris impacts in residential/commercial areas; port facilities used by U.S. and European naval forces reported damaged or temporarily shut.

* UAE MoD: 3 killed, 58 injured nationwide since the start of Iranian strikes.​

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3. Kuwait

US / Military Sites

* Ali Al‑Salem Air Base

* Struck by ballistic missiles; runway cratering confirmed by ISW/CTP and imagery.

* Casualties: 3 Kuwaiti armed‑forces personnel lightly wounded by shrapnel, indicating close‑in detonations.​

* Friendly Fire Incident (Three U.S. Fighters)

* Kuwaiti Patriot batteries shot down three U.S. fighter jets in a misidentification incident amid dense intercept traffic; all six crew survived.

* Strategic point: U.S. has now lost four combat aircraft in two days—one F‑15E plus three fighters—without a single confirmed Iranian SAM kill.

Civilian / Dual‑Use Sites

* Kuwait International Airport

* Drone strike on worker/airside areas; part of Iran’s attempt to signal vulnerability of commercial hubs.

* Casualties: several workers wounded (light to moderate); no fatalities reported.​

4. Qatar

US / Military Sites

* Al Udeid Air Base

* Main U.S. air hub targeted with ballistic missiles; at least one missile impacted a clinic compound on base.

* Casualties: open sources describe light damage, no confirmed U.S. deaths, consistent with either effective sheltering or partial interception.

Civilian / Dual‑Use Sites

* Doha Metro Area (Debris Impacts)

* Missile debris fell across parts of Doha, injuring civilians away from direct base targets.​

* Qatar Interior Ministry: 16 injured by falling missile and interceptor debris.​

5. Saudi Arabia

US / Military Sites

* U.S.‑linked facilities in Saudi Arabia were included in the 14‑base target set Iran struck in its first wave, although specific base names are not consistently published.

* Likely targets include air and support sites tied to CENTCOM in central and eastern Saudi Arabia.​

Civilian / Dual‑Use Sites

* Riyadh and Other Urban Centers

* Explosions and intercepts over the capital; debris documented in residential districts.

* As of March 2, there are no clearly confirmed Saudi fatalities in open reporting; the damage profile is dominated by psychological and economic disruption rather than mass casualty events.

6. Jordan

US / Military Sites

* Muwaffaq Salti Air Base

* Targeted with Iranian missiles; hosts U.S. assets and ISR platforms.

* Casualties: no confirmed deaths; damage assessed as limited, implying either partial success of intercepts or off‑target impact points.

Civilian / Dual‑Use Sites

* Jordan reports missile and drone tracks over national airspace with intercepts and debris, but no verified civilian casualties as of March 2.​

7. Oman

US / Military Sites

* No direct hit reported on a U.S. base; Oman’s role is primarily commercial and diplomatic, including hosting Port of Duqm used by Western navies.

Civilian / Dual‑Use Sites

* Port of Duqm (commercial facility)

* Two Iranian drones struck port infrastructure.​

* Casualties: 1 foreign worker injured.​

8. Iraq (Kurdistan – Erbil)

US / Military Sites

* U.S. Facility near Erbil International Airport

* Included in Iranian strikes on U.S. positions, with missiles and drones impacting the airport vicinity and associated U.S. compounds.

* Casualties: public reporting emphasizes infrastructure and air operations disruption; no consolidated, confirmed U.S. fatality count for this site yet.

Civilian / Dual‑Use Sites

* Erbil city and environs experienced explosions and flight cancellations; casualty data remain fragmentary, with emphasis on material rather than human loss.

9. Israel (Civilian Impact, Non‑US but Central)

Civilian / Dual‑Use Sites

* Tel Aviv

* Missile strike on a residential/commercial block.

* Casualties: 1 killed, 22 injured.

* Beit Shemesh

* Synagogue and apartment buildings were struck in a separate salvo.

* Casualties: 9 killed, 49 injured.

These Israeli civilian casualties sit on top of the previously documented 12 killed since the start of the Iran conflict.

II. OPERATIONAL LOGIC — WHY IRAN IS STRIKING THIS WAY

What: Iran has executed a geographically wide but tactically bounded strike pattern: 14 U.S. bases plus a curated set of economically symbolic civilian sites (hotels, towers, ports, airports, dense urban cores).

Who: Targets are U.S. forward bases, Gulf regimes that host them, and Israeli population centers; casualties skew toward civilians and migrant workers, not U.S. personnel.

How: Mix of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and Shahed‑family drones against both hardened military sites and soft civilian infrastructure, combined with volume tactics that stress air defenses and produce lethal debris even when intercepts succeed.

Where: Strikes are deliberately distributed across Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, Iraq, and Israel — matching the geographic footprint of U.S. basing and allied cooperation.

When: Retaliatory waves were launched within 24–48 hours of U.S.‑Israeli strikes on Iran and Khamenei’s killing, coinciding with the immediate closure of Hormuz and maximum global media attention.

Why (Strategic Intent):

* Impose costs on hosts, not just on the U.S.: By hitting Gulf skylines and ports, Iran raises the political price Gulf monarchies pay for U.S. basing, nudging them toward pressure on Washington to de‑escalate.

* Maximize psychological and economic impact with limited U.S. casualties: Civilian strikes in Dubai, Manama, Tel Aviv, Beit Shemesh, and Duqm generate global headlines and insurance shock without guaranteeing the kind of mass U.S. KIA that would force Trump into ground operations.

* Exploit friendly‑fire and system stress: The fact that four U.S. jets are down with zero Iranian SAM kills shows Iran can degrade U.S. airpower by tempo and complexity rather than direct air‑defense performance.​

* Use Hormuz as leverage: Hitting ports and the Gulf’s energy hubs while keeping missiles in reserve turns the Strait into an ongoing bargaining chip; every extra day of functional closure tightens the noose on the global economy.

III. IMPLICATIONS AND PREDICTIVE OUTLOOK

A. For U.S. Force Posture

* Airpower: Four jets lost (one F‑15E, three fighters) in 48 hours to friendly fire/mechanical issues will slow sortie generation and force more conservative deconfliction procedures.

* Bases: Fifth Fleet, Al Dhafra, Ali Al‑Salem, Al Udeid, Muwaffaq Salti, and Erbil facilities are now proven vulnerable, even if damage and U.S. casualties are limited.

* Political risk: Every additional U.S. KIA at these bases scales up domestic pressure; the current pattern—high stress, low U.S. body count, high allied civilian casualties—is politically unstable but still below automatic escalation thresholds.

B. For Gulf Regimes

* Regime calculus: Seeing their own skylines struck, Gulf leaders must now weigh the value of hosting U.S. power projection against the certainty of being first in line for Iranian retaliation.​

* Likely behavior: Accelerated behind‑the‑scenes pressure on Washington and Tehran via Oman and other channels for a limited ceasefire that preserves face on all sides.

C. For Israel

* Overextension: Israel is now absorbing Iranian and Hezbollah fire while simultaneously prosecuting campaigns in Gaza and the West Bank; each Iranian strike on Israeli cities strengthens domestic demands for maximal deterrence, which in turn deepens multi‑front exposure.​

D. For Hormuz and the Global System

* Energy: With Hormuz functionally closed, global oil is already in the $79–82 band, with analyst consensus that a week of closure pushes crude over $100.

* Decision window: This creates the same March 5‑10 culmination window already identified: by that point, either an Omani‑brokered pause reopens the Strait, or the U.S. faces the choice between ground operations to secure shipping lanes and accepting an energy‑price‑driven global downturn.

Analysts’ Note: Mutual Culmination Point Approaching

Both the U.S. and Iran are approaching operational exhaustion within 5 to 8 days from the start of operations. The Hormuz closure creates an economic forcing function independent of military trajectory. If oil breaches $100/barrel by Mar 5 to 6, third-party diplomatic intervention (via Oman) becomes inevitable, or the U.S. faces politically risky ground escalation. The regional strike map demonstrates Iran’s deliberate strategy: impose costs on U.S. allies and the global economy without crossing the casualty threshold that would automatically trigger American ground invasion.

Iran has maintained the ability to consistently strike, US targets the United States asking the UK to use its bases to conduct strikes against Iranian targets. With satellite footage confirming the United States bases in Bahrain have done tremendous damage to the US Fifth Fleet Headquarters. Including confirmation of hits to radar domes and cratering at multiple airfields. The activation of proxies in Lebanon with Hezbollah striking at Israel, and the Houthis beginning to operate around the Red Sea, shows the next stage of escalation in the Iranian contingency. Moving forward, I think it is highly likely that there is one or even two further stages of escalation. Including attempted strikes on US Navy vessels, this is a distinct possibility and has potential for the biggest US military disaster in modern history.

Iran has substantial facilities underground, and it is very possible that this war could continue indefinitely. The official Iranian position is that it will be war until America is defeated. The longer this goes on, the harder things will get for the US operationally. Not only in maintaining operational Tempo but also in their ability to intercept enemy action, resulting in increasing casualty counts. I believe that current US reports are heavily reduced and that the actual number remains higher.

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Sources

* Middle East Eye. Iranian missiles strike Gulf countries as Bahrain says US Fifth Fleet base attacked.

* https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iranian-missiles-strike-gulf-countries-bahrain-says-us-fifth-fleet-base-attacked

* Reuters. Smoke rises from U.S Navy Base after getting hit by an Iranian strike, in Juffair.

* https://www.reuters.com/pictures/irans-retaliatory-strikes-rain-down-across-mideast-2026-03-01/TN6EO54SQBJFPLPZJHIQPH62YE/

* Reuters. A satellite view shows damage at the U.S Fifth Fleet naval base, after Iranian strikes, in Manama.

* https://www.reuters.com/pictures/irans-retaliatory-strikes-rain-down-across-mideast-2026-03-01/WHOA43ATNVNUROCQAVS4GD6L5Y/

* ISW. Iran Update Evening Special Report, February 28, 2026.

* https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-evening-special-report-february-28-2026/

* Critical Threats Project. Iran Update Evening Special Report, February 28, 2026.

* https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-evening-special-report-february-28-2026

* USA Today. What US bases did Iran target? Were any Americans killed?

* https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/02/28/iran-us-military-bases/88919457007/

* The Guardian. Fourth American service member killed in Iran operation.

* https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/02/iran-attack-fourth-us-service-member-killed

* Reuters. Iran conflict widens to Lebanon, Kuwait mistakenly shoots down US jets.

* https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-strikes-lebanon-following-hezbollah-attacks-widening-iran-conflict-2026-03-02/

* Al Jazeera. Mapping US and Israeli attacks on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes.

* https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/mapping-us-and-israeli-attacks-on-iran-and-tehrans-retaliatory-strikes

* New York Times. Iran Attacks Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Bahrain After U.S.-Israeli Strikes.

* https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/01/world/middleeast/iran-attacks-dubai-persian-gulf-countries-retaliation.html

* Al Jazeera. Missile debris injures 16 in Qatar after Iran launches barrage.

* https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/missile-debris-injures-eight-in-qatar-after-iran-launches-barrage

* Middle East Eye. Drone targets Kuwait’s international airport, wounding workers.

* https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/drone-targets-kuwaits-international-airport-wounding-workers

* Middle East Eye. Bahrain says missile debris from ‘Iranian aggression’ caused deadly ship fire.

* https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/bahrain-says-missile-debris-iranian-aggression-caused-deadly-ship-fire

* CSIS. The Regional Reverberations of the U.S. and Israeli Strikes on Iran.

* https://www.csis.org/analysis/regional-reverberations-us-and-israeli-strikes-iran

* The Guardian. Israel strikes Hezbollah in Lebanon after Iran-allied group launches missiles over the border.

* https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/02/israel-idf-strikes-hezbollah-beirut-lebanon-iran-war

* Reuters. Israeli military strikes Hezbollah across Lebanon.

* https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-military-strikes-hezbollah-across-lebanon-2026-03-02/

* The Guardian. Oil prices jump as Iran war threatens shipping through strait of Hormuz.

* https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/02/oil-prices-iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-shipping

* Reuters. Oil prices expected to stay high for days with Strait of Hormuz in focus.

* https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-expected-stay-high-days-all-eyes-strait-hormuz-flows-2026-03-02/

* CBS News. Live updates: Iran Red Crescent says 555 people killed.

* https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-us-war-day-3-american-deaths-israel-gulf-allies-hit-missile-strikes/

* Reuters. Top U.S. general outlines initial timeline of U.S. military operation in Iran.

* https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/top-us-general-outlines-initial-timeline-us-military-operation-iran-2026-03-02/

Other Iran Updates

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Today’s landscape tightens across three fault lines at once: Latin America’s experiment with hardline governance under mounting social and economic strain, Iran’s attempt to trade nuclear concessions for regime security while Washington raises the price, and Pakistan’s break from decades of strategic ambiguity into what its own defense minister now calls “open war” with the Afghan Taliban. Each theater is moving on a compressed timeline, and together they sketch a single pattern: states under pressure are choosing escalation, not reform, and betting that their publics and patrons will hold.

This edition tracks those three arcs side by side—how Argentina, Mexico, and Brazil are testing the limits of right-populist governance while crime and inflation erode patience; how Iran is probing for a survivable nuclear deal that preserves deterrence; and how Pakistan has crossed a threshold with cross‑border strikes that could redraw the security map from Kabul to the Arabian Sea. The through-line is structural: security establishments are asserting themselves directly—through emergency decrees, aerial bombardment, and maximalist negotiating positions—because they no longer believe existing rules will protect them.

If you are watching from Washington, Brussels, or Beijing, these are not peripheral stories—they are the scaffolding of the next decade’s security environment.

Let’s get into the news.

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Latin America

Argentina: Milei’s Labor Shock Doctrine Hits the Senate

President Javier Milei has driven his flagship labor reform package to a knife‑edge vote in Argentina’s Senate, with extraordinary sessions expiring tomorrow and unions mobilizing for street confrontation and legal war. The bill aims to rewrite labor protections in one fell swoop while the economy reels, with organized labor framing the package as an existential assault on worker rights.

* 02-19-26 – CGT and allied unions – Nationwide, Argentina – Carried out the fourth general strike of Milei’s presidency, halting flights, buses, and trains across the country.

* 02-23-26 – UEJN (judicial workers union) – Argentina – Launched a 48‑hour strike protesting the labor bill and signaling willingness to escalate industrial action.

* 02-26-26 – Argentine Senate – Buenos Aires – Convened for a final vote on Milei’s sweeping labor overhaul under a tight extraordinary‑sessions deadline.

* 02-28-26 – Constitutional clock – Argentina – Extraordinary sessions are set to expire, forcing the bill to restart in March if it fails, raising the stakes for both the government and the opposition.

“More than 21,000 companies have closed during Milei’s first two years in office, according to industry data cited by France 24.”

“The CGT has declared the law unconstitutional and pledged to challenge it in court once enacted.”

This fight is not just about wage rules; it is a confrontation over who governs Argentina’s adjustment—Congress and the presidency, or a union‑judicial‑street coalition that can veto reforms in the courts and on the avenues. If Milei secures passage, he will have demonstrated that austerity plus institutional shock therapy can be forced through despite repeated general strikes; if he fails, his presidency shifts overnight from “disruptive mandate” to “minority government”, constantly negotiating under protest threat. Watch for three signals: whether security forces keep protests contained around Congress, how quickly CGT files challenges in sympathetic courts, and what tone Milei strikes in his March 1 state‑of‑the‑nation speech—conciliation or escalation.

Mexico: After “El Mencho,” A Cartel System Under Stress

In Mexico, President Claudia Sheinbaum is one week into the post‑“El Mencho” phase, after a Mexican armed forces operation killed CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes and triggered a burst of retaliatory violence followed by a tense normalization. Schools and airports in Guadalajara have reopened, but the underlying criminal architecture remains intact, and analysts warn that fragmentation could make the landscape more violent, not less.

* 02-20-26 – Mexican armed forces – Jalisco and neighboring states – Conducted a major operation that killed CJNG leader “El Mencho,” prompting highway blockades, vehicle burnings, and attacks on military personnel in the following 48 hours.

* 02-22-26 – CJNG cells – Western Mexico – Carried out retaliatory actions, including arson and assaults on security forces, before the situation began to stabilize under heavy deployment.

* 02-26-26 – Federal and state authorities – Guadalajara – Reported full reopening of schools and airports, with security forces maintaining a reinforced presence in Jalisco and surrounding states.

* 02-26-26 – Wilson Center – Washington/Mexico – Published an institutional assessment calling the operation a “meaningful assertion of state authority” but warning that CJNG’s capacity for spectacular violence is “organizationally embedded.”

The Wilson Center described the killing of El Mencho as a “meaningful assertion of state authority” but stressed that cartel fragmentation could trigger localized conflict in Jalisco, Michoacán, Guanajuato, and Colima.

This is the classic decapitation dilemma: removing a dominant node, such as CJNG’s founder, can either open space for the state or unleash competing mid‑tier commanders to fight for markets. With the World Cup four months away and global attention looming, Mexico’s political incentive is to project control, but the operational reality is a heightened risk of short, brutal turf wars along major logistics corridors. If the federal government pairs this operation with sustained financial and municipal‑level interventions, it can shift the balance; if it relies mainly on deployments and messaging, expect a quieter but more fragmented conflict map by year’s end.

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Brazil and the Wider Region: Inflation, Populists, and Emergency Decrees

Beyond the high‑profile security shocks, Latin America is drifting into a broader stress phase where inflation, crime, and institutional fatigue make hardline politics more attractive and more volatile. In Brazil, mid‑February inflation overshot forecasts, narrowing the space for rate cuts just as Washington is naming a hard‑right critic of President Lula to a key Brazil policy post, signaling a sharper ideological clash with Brasília.

* 02-15-26 – IBGE/Brazil central bank – Brazil – Reported mid‑February inflation above expectations, complicating plans to ease interest rates from a 3% target band.

* 02-26-26 – Trump administration – Washington – Appointed a far‑right critic of Brazil’s current government to a senior role covering U.S. policy toward Brazil, likely hardening bilateral friction.

* 02-27-26 – Ecuadorian authorities – Ecuador coastal provinces – Declared a 90‑day regional state of emergency across five coastal provinces amid criminal violence and instability.

* 02-26-26 – Regional observers – Latin America – Noted that labor rights and protections are in flux across the region, with strikes and reforms proliferating.

ReliefWeb reported that Ecuador imposed a 90‑day state of emergency across five coastal provinces on February 27 in response to rising violence.

These moves show a region where both left and right governments are resorting to exceptional measures—economic or security—to regain control over dynamics they no longer fully manage. For external actors, this means greater regulatory and political volatility: rapid swings in labor law, emergency powers, and policing strategies, with the U.S. increasingly using personnel choices and rhetoric to signal alignment or punishment. Track three axes: how often states of emergency are renewed, whether inflation stabilizes enough for central banks to ease, and how far populist administrations go in rewriting constitutional or judicial constraints.

Iran

Nuclear Talks: “Considerable Progress” Without a Deal

In Geneva, the U.S. and Iran have concluded what mediators describe as the “most intense” round of nuclear talks yet, making “considerable progress” but failing to reach an agreement as both sides cling to incompatible red lines. Washington is pressing for dismantlement of key facilities and an open‑ended deal, while Tehran seeks recognition of its enrichment “rights” and sanctions relief that secures regime survival.

* 02-22-26 – Senior U.S. official – Geneva – Indicated that Washington and Tehran may discuss an interim deal during the February 26 negotiating round, potentially addressing nuclear issues first and missiles later.

* 02-22-26 – Iranian officials – Tehran – Floated the possibility of sending half of Iran’s highly enriched uranium abroad and diluting the rest in exchange for recognition of enrichment rights and sanctions relief, though other officials publicly rejected an interim deal.

* 02-26-26 – U.S. and Iranian delegations – Geneva – Wrapped up talks described as “most intense” to date with no deal; U.S. demands reportedly include dismantling facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, and transferring remaining enriched uranium to U.S. custody.

* 02-26-26 – Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi – Geneva/Washington – Announced “considerable progress” and planned follow‑up discussions in Vienna, plus consultations in Washington with Vice President Vance and senior officials.

Critical Threats reported that Iranian officials signaled willingness to cut enrichment levels and externalize part of their stockpile, but insisted on recognition of enrichment rights and sanctions relief that current U.S. demands do not meet.

The structural problem is that both sides are negotiating not just over centrifuges but over narratives: Washington wants a permanent, inspection‑heavy framework it can sell as preventing an Iranian bomb, while Tehran needs to show its base that it defended sovereignty and deterrence. That is why U.S. floats of “token enrichment” and Iranian proposals for regional enrichment consortia keep surfacing—they are attempts to square technical constraints with political symbolism—but neither addresses ballistic missiles or regional militias, which Washington now treats as integral to any durable deal. The risk corridor over the next month is twofold: miscalculation if talks stall and the Trump administration leans toward limited strikes, and domestic backlash inside Iran if the regime appears to concede too much under pressure while protests remain active.

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Missiles, Sanctions, and the Shadow Fleet

Parallel to the negotiating track, Iran’s missile development and sanctions‑evasion infrastructure are under sharper scrutiny, with U.S. officials warning about systems “designed solely to strike America” and Treasury expanding designations against Iran’s shadow fleet and arms networks. These moves both raise the coercive pressure and complicate any political space Tehran might have for c’s deterrent posture.

* 02-25-26 – President Donald Trump – Washington – Claimed Iran is “working to build missiles that will soon be able to hit the United States,” prompting questions from U.S. intelligence sources about whether this exceeds current assessments.

* 02-26-26 – U.S. Department of the Treasury (OFAC) – Washington – Sanctioned over 30 individuals, entities, and vessels tied to illicit Iranian petroleum sales and support for ballistic missile and advanced conventional weapons programs.

* 02-25-26 – Arab diplomat – Regional capitals – Told Israeli media Iran is willing to reduce enrichment from 60% to roughly 3.6% in exchange for relief, aligning with JCPOA‑like constraints but not addressing missile issues.

* 02-26-26 – Iranian opposition outlets – Europe/online – Highlighted remarks by U.S. Secretary of State Rubio warning that Iran is rebuilding a missile capability intended for long‑range strikes, and that it is “not yet enriching” but working to restore pathways.

The U.S. Treasury stated it was targeting networks “enabling illicit Iranian petroleum sales and Iran’s ballistic missile and advanced conventional weapons production” as part of a maximum pressure campaign.

From Tehran’s perspective, missiles and regional proxies are non‑negotiable pillars of asymmetric deterrence that compensate for conventional inferiority; from Washington’s perspective, they are the core problem to be constrained. By expanding sanctions mid‑talks, the U.S. increases leverage but also signals to Iranian hardliners that compromise will not end economic warfare, narrowing the factional space for a deal. The likely near‑term outcome is a messy hybrid: continued technical talks that slow but do not reverse nuclear advances, combined with incremental sanctions pressure and periodic rhetoric about military options—raising volatility in Gulf shipping and energy markets without a clear off‑ramp.

Pakistan

“Open War” With the Afghan Taliban

Pakistan has crossed a significant threshold by publicly declaring “open war” against the Afghan Taliban government after launching airstrikes on Kabul, Kandahar, and other locations, it says, which host militants responsible for attacks on Pakistani security forces. This marks a dramatic break from decades in which Islamabad backed the Taliban as a strategic asset, and it introduces a new, open border conflict into an already crowded regional escalation ladder linked to the U.S.–Iran crisis.

* 02-22-26 – Pakistani Air Force – Afghan territory – Conducted multiple airstrikes against camps allegedly used by militant groups, including Tehrik‑e‑Taliban Pakistan (TTP), citing recent terrorist attacks inside Pakistan, including a high‑profile mosque attack in Islamabad.

* 02-26-26 – Pakistani forces – Kabul, Paktia, Kandahar – Launched additional airstrikes targeting Taliban positions, command centers, and munitions storage, with both sides reporting casualties and border clashes.

* 02-27-26 – Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Mohammad Asif – Islamabad – Announced that “patience has now run out” and declared “open war” between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban rulers.

* 02-27-26 – Afghan Taliban officials – Kabul – Condemned the strikes, claimed civilian casualties, but signaled openness to negotiations even as major border crossings remained closed.

CSIS assessed that Pakistan’s declaration of “open war” follows a week of escalating conflict and strikes on alleged militant camps, and warned that while the fighting might remain limited to border skirmishes and airstrikes, further escalation is possible.

A U.S. security alert noted that Pakistani aircraft remained in Afghan airspace hours after the initial strikes and that major border crossings were closed amid reports of continued fighting.

Structurally, Islamabad is trying to solve a problem it helped create: Afghan territory functioning as a permissive rear base for the TTP and related networks that now strike deep inside Pakistan. By moving from covert pressure and border fencing to explicit aerial bombardment and an “open war” framing, Pakistan is betting that it can coerce the Taliban into reining in Pakistani jihadists without triggering a broader insurgent backlash at home. The risks are substantial: Taliban counter‑raids on frontier posts, increased cross‑border guerrilla attacks, and a potential convergence of anti‑state actors who see Pakistan’s security forces as a common enemy. Over the next 30–90 days, watch three indicators: durability of any ceasefire arrangements, patterns of TTP attacks inside Pakistan’s urban centers, and whether Beijing or Gulf capitals step in as quiet mediators to protect their own regional projects.

From Sponsor to Enemy: A Strategic Break

Beyond the immediate airstrikes, the Pakistan–Taliban rupture signals the failure of a 30‑year strategic bet in which Islamabad assumed that sponsoring the Taliban would yield a controllable partner in Kabul. Since the Taliban’s 2021 takeover, that logic has eroded as Kabul has refused to prioritize Pakistan’s security concerns over its ideological and fraternal obligations to jihadist allies.

* Late 2024–Feb 2026 – TTP and allied militants – Pakistan – Carried out a series of at least seven planned or executed attacks and suicide bombings against Pakistani military and police forces linked by Islamabad to Afghan‑based militants.

* Early Feb 2026 – Militants – Bannu district, Pakistan – Conducted an attack that killed at least 11 security personnel and two civilians, which Pakistani officials said was carried out by an Afghan national tied to the TTP.

* 2021–2025 – Afghan Taliban government – Kabul – Failed to take sustained action to constrain TTP operations in Pakistani territory despite repeated Pakistani demands, undermining Islamabad’s initial expectations.

* 02-26-26 – Taliban spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid – Kabul – Threatened retaliation and disputed Pakistani casualty numbers after the airstrikes, while still leaving room rhetorically for negotiations.

Analysts cited by Reuters noted that Pakistan’s military is far larger on paper, but that Kabul can respond asymmetrically through raids on border posts and cross‑border guerrilla attacks, raising the risk of a drawn‑out low‑intensity war.

This is the moment where a proxy relationship becomes an openly adversarial one: Islamabad is now treating the Taliban more as a hostile state sheltering enemies than as a client movement to be managed. That pivot will reverberate through regional alignments—especially with China invested in corridors that cross both countries—and could push the Taliban closer to other patrons willing to tolerate its harboring of jihadists. For external policymakers, the key is to prepare for spillover: refugee flows, disruptions to trade routes, and the possibility that Pakistan will lean harder on unconventional tools (including selective support to rival Afghan factions) if airstrikes fail to change Taliban behavior.

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Sources and Further Reading

* ReliefWeb, “Latin America & The Caribbean Weekly Situation Update as of 27 February 2026,” 02-26-26.

https://reliefweb.int/report/colombia/latin-america-caribbean-weekly-situation-update-27-february-2026

* The Rio Times, “Latin American Pulse for Friday, February 27, 2026,” 02-26-26.

https://www.riotimesonline.com/latin-american-pulse-for-friday-february-27-2026/​

* Reuters, “Argentina’s Senate convenes for final labor reform vote, as unions and opposition march,” 02-26-26.

https://www.reuters.com/business/2026/02/27/argentinas-senate-convenes-for-final-labor-reform-vote-as-unions-and-opposition-march

* Reuters, “Brazil’s inflation overshoots forecasts in mid-February,” 02-27-26.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-inflation-overshoots-forecasts-mid-february-2026-02-27

* Reuters, “Trump administration taps far-right official for key Brazil post,” 02-27-26.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-administration-taps-far-right-official-key-brazil-post-2026-02-27

* Critical Threats (ISW), “Iran Update, February 23, 2026,” 02-22-26.

https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-february-23-2026

* Critical Threats (ISW), “Iran Update, February 25, 2026,” 02-24-26.

https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-february-25-2026

* CNBC, “U.S. and Iran wrap up ‘most intense’ nuclear talks with no deal,” 02-26-26.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/27/us-iran-nuclear-talks-oil-middle-east.html

* Reuters, “After Trump remarks, what is status of Iran’s weapons programs?,” 02-25-26.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/after-trump-remarks-what-is-status-irans-weapons-programs-2026-02-25

* NCRI, “Iran News in Brief – February 27, 2026,” 02-26-26.

https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/iran-news-in-brief-news/iran-news-in-brief-february-27-2026

* CSIS, “Why Did Pakistan Announce ‘Open War’ Against the Taliban?,” 02-26-26.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/why-did-pakistan-announce-open-war-against-taliban

* Reuters, “Afghan Taliban open to talks after Pakistan bombs Kabul, Kandahar,” 02-26-26.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-strikes-afghanistan-targets-clashes-intensify-2026-02-27

* Reuters, “From sponsor to enemy: What’s behind Pakistan’s attack on Afghan Taliban?,” 02-27-26.

* https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/whats-behind-latest-fighting-between-afghanistan-pakistan-2026-02-27

* OSAC, “Security Alert: Kabul, Afghanistan, Pakistan Conducts Airstrikes into Afghanistan,” 02-26-26.

* https://www.osac.gov/Content/Report/907b085a-7784-4ab2-8d2b-2980e7357465

* FDD, “Pakistan Says It Has Entered ‘Open War’ With Afghan Taliban,” 02-26-26.

https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/02/27/patience-has-now-run-out-pakistan-says-it-has-entered-open-war-with-afghan-taliban

* Peoples Dispatch (via Instagram), “The state of labor rights in Latin America and the Caribbean is in flux,” 02-27-26.

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The Indo‑Pacific is now moving on three linked tracks: Beijing’s rehearsal cycles around Taiwan, Washington’s containment and energy‑bloc architecture, and a ring of regional states hedging between confrontation and managed friction. Hainan and the Bashi Channel host the rehearsal, but the real leverage sits with PLA planners, U.S. alliance managers, and governments deciding whether they want war, coercion, or just enough crisis to extract guarantees.

What connects these arcs is an operating system under construction. Reuters and ISW show China flying masked WZ‑7 drones over the South China Sea and near Taiwan while Coast Guard and “maritime militia” grind away at Kinmen and Pratas, even as Xi’s purge hollows out the Rocket Force and senior command. At the same time, the Trump administration is building an Indo‑Pacific energy‑security bloc anchored in Tokyo, while Japan, the Philippines, and the United States rehearse anti‑submarine and surface-warfare in the Bashi Channel, through which the PLA must reach the Pacific.

Let’s get into the news.

A World on Fire— Asia & Indo-Pacific Spotlight

TAIWAN

Masked Drones and Gray‑Zone Pressure Turn the Strait into a Permanent Rehearsal

A large PLA WZ‑7 “Soaring Dragon” reconnaissance drone operating from Hainan has been running regular circuits over the South China Sea and near Taiwan while digitally disguising itself as a civilian or foreign military aircraft, using spoofed identifiers that at times make it appear as a Belarusian Il‑62 in public flight data. Reuters and U.S. News note that its routes cross key naval choke points south of Hainan and intersect “numerous military points of interest” around Taipei and along Taiwan’s southern shoreline—patterns that look like deliberate rehearsals for confrontation, not generic maritime reconnaissance.

ISW’s China–Taiwan updates map the surrounding gray‑zone pressure: multiple China Coast Guard incursions around Taiwan’s Kinmen Islands and Pratas Island, increased “maritime militia” presence in contested waters, and one January sortie assessed as the first confirmed PLA intrusion into Taiwan’s sovereign airspace rather than just its ADIZ, setting a new threshold. This is not episodic harassment; it’s an attempt to normalize daily violations of sovereignty and test Taipei’s tolerance for pressure.

* Late 2025–February 2026, South China Sea: PLA WZ‑7 drone conducts regular flights from Hainan, at times appearing as foreign or civilian aircraft due to spoofed transponder identifiers.

* February 2026, near Taiwan: Flight paths intersect multiple “military points of interest” around Taipei and along Taiwan’s southern shoreline, consistent with targeting and route rehearsal.

* January 2026, Kinmen and Pratas: China Coast Guard patrols and incursions increase around Taiwan’s outlying islands, accompanied by more “maritime militia” activity.

* January 2026, Taiwan airspace: ISW assesses a PLA flight as the first confirmed incursion into Taiwan’s sovereign airspace, not merely its ADIZ—crossing a legal and military line.

“A large Chinese military drone has conducted regular flights over the South China Sea in recent months while disguising its identity, with routes suggesting a rehearsal for an operation over Taiwan.”

— Reuters, How China is masking drone flights in potential Taiwan rehearsal, February 26, 2026

China is scripting a fog‑of‑war opening to any Taiwan crisis: spoofed drones, constant airspace probes, and low‑grade maritime harassment that erode Taiwan’s decision‑making and normalize daily sovereignty violations. The strategic question is whether Taipei and Washington treat this as background noise or as the live rehearsal for a blockade and cable‑cut scenario—and respond by hardening undersea cables, Bashi Channel surveillance, and tri‑lateral drills built around these exact flight corridors.

CHINA INTERNAL

Xi’s Rocket Force Purge Trades Readiness for Political Control

The PLA that is rehearsing around Taiwan is being hollowed out from the top. Over the past two years, Xi Jinping has removed China’s defense minister and senior officers from the Rocket Force, logistics, and equipment departments as part of a sweeping anti‑corruption campaign, targeting those linked to missile procurement and promotions. A recent Reuters summary of a study concludes that this purge has “taken a toll on command and readiness,” disrupting chains of command, delaying procurement, and creating a climate of fear in some of the PLA’s most sensitive units.

In a rare address, Xi described the past year as “unusual and extraordinary,” emphasizing intensified political education and anti‑corruption as core tasks, while ISW’s Taiwan updates track expanded PLA deployments and exercises around Taiwan and the broader Indo‑Pacific. The result is a force asked to do more with less institutional memory and more political scrutiny—precisely when miscalculation risk is rising.

* 2023–2025, Beijing: Xi removes the defense minister and senior commanders in the Rocket Force and equipment systems over corruption allegations related to missile procurement and promotions.

* February 24, 2026, Beijing: Study finds the purge has degraded command and readiness, disrupting leadership continuity and slowing procurement in key units.

* 2025–2026, Taiwan theater: PLA deployments and exercises around Taiwan increase, including more frequent air and maritime activities in the Strait of Taiwan and the South China Sea.

“China’s sweeping military purge has taken a toll on command and readiness, according to a new study… removing senior officers from some of its most sensitive units, including the Rocket Force.”

— Reuters, China military purge taking toll on command and readiness, study finds, February 24, 2026

Xi is betting that political loyalty and centralized control over nuclear and missile forces matter more than institutional competence when a crisis hits. For everyone else, that creates a dual‑risk environment: a PLA that is more accident‑prone in daily gray‑zone operations and more likely to execute risky orders—like cutting undersea cables or closing airspace—without meaningful internal resistance. That’s a dangerous mix in an already crowded Indo‑Pacific battlespace.

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ENERGY & ALLIANCE ARCHITECTURE

Tokyo’s Energy Summit Builds the Economic Spine of a Maritime Bloc

The Trump administration is building an economic spine under its Indo‑Pacific security posture. On March 14–15, the “National Energy Dominance Council,” led by President Donald Trump, will co‑host the first Indo‑Pacific Energy Security Ministerial and Business Forum in Tokyo with the Japanese government. Reuters reports that U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin will lead the U.S. delegation, alongside business leaders from energy, infrastructure, manufacturing, and finance, with nearly a dozen Indo‑Pacific countries expected to attend.

Tokyo has already warned Washington that cutting off Russian LNG entirely is not feasible in the short term without destabilizing Japan’s energy system, underscoring the tension between sanctions and security. The summit is designed to turn that dilemma into leverage—using LNG contracts, critical‑minerals deals, and port and grid investments to bind regional economies into an energy‑security bloc aligned with Washington and Tokyo.

* February 22, Tokyo: U.S. embassy announces the Indo‑Pacific Energy Security Ministerial and Business Forum for March 14–15, co‑hosted by the National Energy Dominance Council and the Japanese government.

* February 22, Washington/Tokyo: U.S. delegation announced: Interior Secretary Burgum (chair), Energy Secretary Wright, and EPA Administrator Zeldin, plus major private‑sector actors.

* February 2026, Indo‑Pacific capitals: Nearly a dozen Indo‑Pacific nations are invited, framing energy security as a regional, not bilateral, challenge.

“The ‘National Energy Dominance Council’ led by U.S. President Donald Trump will host the first Indo-Pacific Energy Security Ministerial and Business Forum in Tokyo on March 14 and 15.”

— Reuters, Trump says Indo-Pacific energy meeting to be held in Tokyo in March, February 22, 2026

The Tokyo summit is the economic counterpart to the Bashi Channel drills and South China Sea patrols. By stitching LNG, critical minerals projects, and infrastructure finance into a coherent architecture, Washington and Tokyo are building a maritime “energy‑NATO” that makes Japan, Southeast Asia, and South Asia structurally dependent on U.S.‑aligned routes and capital. In that world, a Taiwan blockade or South China Sea closure isn’t just a military event—it’s an attack on a deliberately engineered energy and financial network.

SOUTH CHINA SEA

Patrols and Optics: Beijing’s Readiness vs Manila’s Assertive Transparency

China’s Southern Theater Command has intensified naval and air patrols across the South China Sea, explicitly criticizing the Philippines for “inciting tensions” by bringing in “countries outside the region” for bilateral air patrols. Beijing has pledged to maintain a “high state of readiness” to defend its claimed territorial sovereignty and maritime rights, framing constant patrols as a defensive necessity rather than offensive normalization.

Manila, meanwhile, has embraced what officials call “assertive transparency”: publicizing Coast Guard encounters and collisions, inviting external patrol partners, and framing clashes as tests of sovereignty rather than isolated incidents. While this newsletter’s citations stay Tier‑1, that narrative is visible in the footage and diplomatic messaging coming out of Manila.

* February 7, South China Sea: The Southern Theater Command announced naval and air patrols from Monday to Friday in disputed waters, accusing the Philippines of stoking tensions by involving outside countries in air patrols.

* February 7, Beijing: Command states Chinese forces will maintain a “high state of readiness” to defend China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights.

“From Monday to Friday, China carried out naval and air patrols in the South China Sea… accusing the Philippines of trying to stir up tensions by bringing in countries outside the region for ‘bilateral air patrols’.”

— Reuters, China conducts naval, air patrols around disputed South China Sea, February 7, 2026

The South China Sea has become an information and alliance stage as much as a maritime one. Beijing is trying to normalize constant patrols and an expansive legal narrative; the Philippines is internationalizing each clash to lock in support from Japan, the United States, and others. As joint patrols and exercises expand, a single collision or casualty can now cascade into a multi‑flag crisis, not just a bilateral argument at sea.

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BASHI CHANNEL: JAPAN–PHILIPPINES–US

Tri‑Lateral Naval Drills Turn a Gap into Coalition Water

The same corridors that PLA drones and patrol aircraft use to reach the western Pacific are being rehearsed by a tri‑lateral coalition. Japan’s Kyodo News reports that the Philippines, Japan, and the United States have just concluded a four‑day naval drill near the Bashi Channel between the Philippines and Taiwan, focusing on anti‑submarine warfare, surface warfare, and search‑and‑rescue. The exercises were explicitly framed as efforts to improve interoperability amid rising security challenges.

Those drill boxes overlap with the corridors used by the Hainan‑based WZ‑7 and other PLA aircraft, effectively turning a geographic vulnerability into coalition‑defended water where both sides are now rehearsing on the same routes.

* February 26, near Bashi Channel: Philippines, Japan, and the United States conclude a four‑day naval drill near the strait between the Philippines and Taiwan, including ASW, surface, and SAR training.

* February 26, capitals: Officials describe the drills as aimed at enhancing interoperability among the three navies amid growing regional security challenges.

“The Philippines, Japan and the United States on Thursday concluded a four-day naval drill near the Bashi Channel between the Philippines and Taiwan.”

— Kyodo News, Philippines, Japan, U.S. hold joint drill in waters near Taiwan, February 26, 2026

These Bashi Channel drills turn the gap between Taiwan and the Philippines into a functional front line. By rehearsing anti‑submarine warfare, surface interdiction, and rescue in this narrow corridor, the U.S.–Japan–Philippines triad is practicing the precise missions a Taiwan blockade or cable‑cut crisis would require. The strategic effect is to raise the cost of any Chinese attempt to localize a conflict—but it also ensures that any misstep here risks immediate multi‑state escalation.

KOREAN PENINSULA

Drills, Inflation, and the Incentive for a North Korean Signal

While attention is fixed south, the Korean Peninsula is sliding into another high‑risk cycle. U.S. and South Korean forces will begin large‑scale joint drills on March 9, continuing a spring exercise pattern that Pyongyang consistently portrays as an invasion rehearsal.

At the same time, internal market data compiled in regional digests show sharp price spikes across North Korea. Reports based on defector‑run sources indicate that mid‑February rice prices in Pyongyang hit roughly 19,600 won/kg—up nearly 30 percent in two weeks—corn prices jumped around 87 percent to 7,300 won/kg, and fuel prices climbed more than 20 percent, driven by tightened trade controls and crackdowns on border smuggling that restrict foreign currency and supplies.

* March 9, Korean Peninsula: U.S. and South Korea scheduled to begin large‑scale joint drills, extending long‑running spring exercise cycles.

* February 15, Pyongyang: Market data show rice at approximately 19,600 won/kg (up nearly 30 percent in two weeks), corn at 7,300 won/kg (up 87 percent), and fuel up more than 20 percent, linked to border and smuggling crackdowns.

“Rice hit 19,600 won per kilogram in Pyongyang on Feb. 15, up nearly 30% in two weeks, while corn jumped 87% to 7,300 won… the report warned prices will keep climbing if controls persist.”

— Asia regional briefing summarizing Daily NK market data, February 26, 2026

Economic stress plus high‑visibility drills has a familiar output in North Korea: missile launches, satellite tests, cyber operations, or localized clashes calibrated to demand attention and justify internal repression. In an Indo‑Pacific already defined by Taiwan rehearsals and South China Sea confrontations, any Korean “signal” in March threatens to pull finite U.S. attention and assets into a third live crisis vector.

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Sources and Further Reading

Reuters, “How China is masking drone flights in potential Taiwan rehearsal,” February 26, 2026.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-is-masking-drone-flights-potential-taiwan-rehearsal-2026-02-26/

U.S. News & World Report, “How China Is Masking Drone Flights in Potential Taiwan Rehearsal,” February 26, 2026.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-02-26/how-china-is-masking-drone-flights-in-potential-taiwan-rehearsal

Institute for the Study of War, “China & Taiwan Update, February 6, 2026,” February 6, 2026.

https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/china-taiwan-update-february-6-2026/

Reuters, “China military purge taking toll on command and readiness, study finds,” February 24, 2026.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-military-purge-taking-toll-command-readiness-study-finds-2026-02-24/

Reuters, “Trump says Indo-Pacific energy meeting to be held in Tokyo in March,” February 22, 2026.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-says-indo-pacific-energy-meeting-be-held-tokyo-march-2026-02-22/

Reuters, “China conducts naval, air patrols around disputed South China Sea,” February 7, 2026.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-conducts-naval-air-patrols-around-disputed-south-china-sea-2026-02-07/

Kyodo News, “Philippines, Japan, U.S. hold joint drill in waters near Taiwan,” February 26, 2026.

https://english.kyodonews.net/articles/-/71277

Institute for the Study of War, “China–Taiwan Weekly Updates,” June 11, 2023, and subsequent updates.

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china%E2%80%93taiwan-weekly-updates

This Weeks Spotlights

Thank you Christina Gurchinoff, Cat Wilson RN, Matt Arnold, An Outraged Introvert, Delores Fuller, and many others for tuning into my live video with Centered America and Banner & Backbone Media! Join me for my next live video in the app.

The Middle East is now moving on three linked tracks: Geneva’s nuclear table, Washington’s escalation ladder, and a ring of states and non‑state actors hedging for impact. Oman and Switzerland host the diplomacy, but the real leverage sits with U.S. carriers, IRGC planners, and regional governments deciding whether they want another war or just enough friction to extract guarantees.

What connects these arcs is an architecture of constrained options. Critical Threats and ISW describe Trump’s team refining limited‑strike packages while Iran signals that missiles and proxies are off the table for negotiation, even as protests and succession politics destabilize Tehran’s decision space. Senior U.S. and regional officials now describe the Geneva round as sitting inside a 10–15 day decision window: either an interim deal that freezes enrichment or a limited strike package that can be expanded into a broader air campaign if Tehran refuses to move. At the same time, Turkey, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt act as crisis managers rather than cannon fodder—opposing strikes publicly, hosting talks selectively, and signaling they want a long‑term regional settlement, not another 2003.

What you need to see going into Thursday’s Geneva session is this: Gaza is already living a ceasefire that doesn’t look like peace, and regional capitals are planning for an Iran outcome that could widen that template to the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Geneva is not an isolated negotiation; it is the hinge between a managed containment system and a region‑wide cascade.

Let’s get into the news.

A World on Fire — Middle East Spotlight

IRAN

Geneva Talks Enter Decision Window as Limited‑Strike Plans and Interim Deal Scenarios Compete

Oman and U.S. officials have confirmed that the next round of U.S.–Iran talks will take place Thursday in Geneva, moving a channel that began as indirect discussions in Muscat into a direct, time‑compressed negotiation. PBS’s timeline shows how quickly the file has escalated: indirect talks in Oman on February 6, a first Geneva round on February 17, and now a follow‑on session as U.S. naval and air assets concentrate near Iran, while ISW/CTP report that IRGC Ground Forces units held an exercise on February 24 at the Madinah ol Munawwarah operational base near Bandar Abbas and on Persian Gulf islands—explicit preparations for a potential clash near the Strait of Hormuz. Critical Threats and ISW assess that Trump is weighing limited strikes on nuclear and military sites to compel concessions, while holding open the option of a broader air campaign if Iran refuses to move after initial blows. ISW/CTP maps a surge of anti‑regime protests and campus actions across Iran, which increases the internal risk of any mismanaged confrontation and narrows the regime’s room for error. Officials familiar with the planning say this is all framed inside a 10–15-day decision window: either an interim deal that locks in a pause and some recognition of enrichment, or a move to limited strikes that can, if Tehran miscalculates, widen into sustained air operations.​

Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Egypt, and the UAE are lobbying hard against U.S. strikes, and reporting from regional diplomats indicates the UAE has signaled it will not open its airspace for a U.S. attack on Iran, sharply narrowing Washington’s operational geometry and complicating any large‑scale strike package. That regional resistance doesn’t stop a limited strike, but it turns every escalation decision into a choice to burn political capital with partners who still remember Iraq and Libya.​

* February 6, Muscat: Indirect U.S.–Iran nuclear talks convene under Omani mediation, with the head of U.S. Central Command participating.

* February 17, Geneva: First round of Geneva talks held as Iranian forces briefly close part of the Strait of Hormuz for exercises.

* February 22, Geneva: Oman and Iranian officials confirm a new Geneva session for February 26, framed as a chance to avoid escalation.

* February 20–23, Iran (multiple cities): ISW/CTP tracks dozens of anti‑regime protests, many student‑led, signaling domestic fragility.

* February 24, southern Iran / Persian Gulf: ISW/CTP notes IRGC Ground Forces exercises at Madinah ol Munawwarah base near Bandar Abbas and on Persian Gulf islands, signaling preparations for possible confrontation near the Strait of Hormuz.

“A senior US official told Axios on Feb. 22 that the US and Iran may discuss an interim deal during negotiations in Geneva on February 26.”​

— Institute for the Study of War / Critical Threats Project, Iran Update, February 23, 2026, February 23, 2026 | understandingwar.org

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REGIONAL STATES: TURKEY, SAUDI, UAE, EGYPT

Anxious Crisis Managers: Regional Capitals Oppose Strikes, Push for Broader File

Al‑Monitor’s coverage from Ankara notes that Turkey originally pushed to host the U.S.–Iran talks itself, hoping to fold Gulf states into a comprehensive discussion covering Iran’s nuclear program, missiles, and proxies—but saw the venue shift to Oman and then Geneva as Tehran insisted on a nuclear‑only track. In a February 3 segment, the correspondent describes Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar as opposing U.S. strikes on Iran while simultaneously pressing Tehran to negotiate “all troubling issues,” including its ballistic missiles, warning that Iran’s uncompromising stance could render regional mediation efforts futile.​

Reuters reporting from Dubai captures the UAE saying the Middle East “does not need another war” and urging both Washington and Tehran to use crisis talks to reach a “long‑term solution,” with Emirati officials explicitly linking the nuclear file to broader regional security and economic stability. Taken together, these capitals are not bystanders but veto‑holders—states that publicly oppose a strike, privately warn Tehran about missiles and proxies, and quietly constrain U.S. options by denying basing and overflight.​​

“Regional power United Arab Emirates urged Iran and the United States on Tuesday to use the resumption of nuclear talks this week to resolve a standoff that has led to mutual threats of air strikes, emphasizing that the Middle East does not need another war.”​

— Reuters, Middle East needs long-term solution, UAE says ahead of US-Iran crisis talks, February 3, 2026 | reuters.com​

GAZA

‘Ceasefire’ in Name Only: Ongoing Strikes, Tight Crossings, and Privatized Reconstruction

ReliefWeb’s latest Gaza situation report, drawing on UN and partner data, documents continued airstrikes, shelling, and gunfire across the Strip between February 11 and 19, causing additional civilian casualties despite an October ceasefire. Gaza’s Ministry of Health reports 20 Palestinians killed and 52 injured in that period, bringing total casualties since the truce began to 611 dead and 1,630 wounded, while limited evacuations through Rafah and Kerem Shalom continue under heavy constraints.​

Middle East Eye reports that Israel has continued to violate the ceasefire, including with at least seven air strikes on Rafah and east of Gaza City on a single Sunday, while a sick infant denied exit for treatment abroad died, and a 27‑year‑old woman was shot north of the enclave. Another piece describes Palestinians living along Gaza’s so‑called “Yellow Line” enduring nightly gunfire, displacement, and demolitions, with residents saying “there is no ceasefire here” as the buffer zone pushes deeper into their neighborhoods. Recent governance and finance documents show how this “no‑ceasefire” reality is being layered with a new privatized architecture: a Board of Peace charter signed at Davos on January 22, with a billion‑dollar tiered membership structure for voting rights, and the GREAT Trust’s “Gaza Riviera” redevelopment concept tying reconstruction to data centers and logistics corridors. In other words, Gaza is being rebuilt on paper as a securitized investment zone even as residents along the Yellow Line describe a buffer that feels like slow annexation, not peace.​

* February 11–19, Gaza Strip: UN‑compiled data show 20 Palestinians killed and 52 injured amid continued strikes, raising post‑ceasefire totals to 611 dead and 1,630 wounded.​

* February 11–18, Gaza–Egypt / Gaza–Israel crossings: WHO coordinates multiple medical evacuation missions, moving more than 100 patients to Egypt and Jordan while hundreds more remain in need.​

* February 22, Rafah / Gaza City: Middle East Eye reports at least seven Israeli air strikes, a woman shot north of the enclave, and a sick infant dying after being denied exit.​

* February 11, Yellow Line area: Residents tell Middle East Eye they face nightly gunfire and demolitions despite the October ceasefire.​

“Israeli shelling on Gaza continues despite the ceasefire deal signed in October, killing over 600 Palestinians since its start.”​

— Middle East Eye, Israel continues to violate Gaza ceasefire as sick infant dies after exit blocked, February 22, 2026 | middleeasteye.net​

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Sources and Further Reading

Institute for the Study of War / Critical Threats Project, “Iran Update, February 23, 2026,” February 23, 2026. https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-23-2026​​

Critical Threats Project, “Iran Update, February 23, 2026,” February 23, 2026. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-february-23-2026

Critical Threats Project, “Iran Update, February 24, 2026,” February 24, 2026. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-february-24-2026

PBS NewsHour, “A timeline of tensions over Iran’s nuclear program as talks with U.S. approach,” February 24, 2026. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/a-timeline-of-tensions-over-irans-nuclear-program-as-talks-with-u-s-approach

AP News, “Next US-Iran nuclear talks are Thursday in Geneva as Washington awaits proposed deal from Tehran,” February 22, 2026. https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-khamenei-universities-tehran-trump-military-dd81a3d1e464975c56f02b729e742014

Reuters, “Oman confirms US-Iran talks in Geneva on Thursday,” February 22, 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/oman-confirms-us-iran-talks-geneva-thursday-2026-02-22/​​

The Soufan Center, “Second U.S.-Iran Talks Yield Mixed Results with Middle East on Edge,” IntelBrief, February 19, 2026. https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2026-february-19/

Al‑Monitor, “Turkey out as host of US-Iran talks as Erdogan visits Saudi Arabia, Egypt,” February 3, 2026. (segment cited via program transcript).

Reuters, “Middle East needs long-term solution, UAE says ahead of US-Iran crisis talks,” February 3, 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/middle-east-needs-long-term-solution-uae-says-ahead-us-iran-crisis-talks-2026-02-03/

​ ReliefWeb, “Gaza Humanitarian Response | Situation Report No. 68,” February 19, 2026. https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/gaza-humanitarian-response-situation-report-no-68​

Middle East Eye, “‘No ceasefire here’: Palestinians along Gaza’s ‘Yellow Line’ endure daily Israeli attacks,” February 11, 2026. https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/palestinians-along-gaza-yellow-line-endure-daily-israeli-attacks

Middle East Eye, “Israel continues to violate Gaza ceasefire as sick infant dies after exit blocked,” February 22, 2026. https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-continues-violate-gaza-ceasefire-attacks-continue

Institute for the Study of War, “Iran Update, February 20, 2026,” February 20, 2026. https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-february-20-2026

Institute for the Study of War, “Iran Military Preparations, February 24, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET,” February 24, 2026. https://understandingwar.org/map/iran-military-preparations-february-24-2026-at-200-pm-et

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The Atlantic order that existed four years ago today—when Russia invaded Ukraine—is dead. Today’s evidence reveals not alliance drift but active system separation: Europe is mobilizing €500 billion in defense eurobonds to build strategic autonomy, America is constructing Pentagon-managed mineral trade blocs that exclude traditional allies, and Hungary is blocking Ukraine aid on the war’s anniversary as a functional Russian proxy. This is the Atlantic Fracture accelerating into institutional separation—two rival systems under construction, each treating the other as a competitor rather than a partner.

The pattern is structural, not rhetorical. Europe recognizes that American security guarantees are void and is building the financial architecture for military independence. The United States is leveraging tariff chaos and AI-driven trade mechanisms to establish mercantile dominance. Shared institutions are failing under coordinated pressure from embedded hostile actors and unilateral American withdrawal.

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A World on Fire — EU/North America Spotlight

EUROPE

Fourth Anniversary Memorial—Solidarity Without America

Today marks four years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a war that has killed hundreds of thousands and permanently reshaped European security[7]. Europe assembled in Kyiv to mark the anniversary, while the Trump administration pursued separate bilateral negotiations with Russia, signaling divergence in strategic priorities[8]

February 24, Kyiv: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the nation, stating Putin has failed to break Ukraine’s spirit or achieve his objectives[9]

February 24, Kyiv: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen attended memorial ceremonies alongside officials from France, Germany, and Poland[9][10].

February 24, Brussels: NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte declared NATO’s unwavering support for Ukraine’s resistance and courage[11]

February 24, multiple capitals: G7 issued a joint statement reaffirming support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity, while the U.S. conducted separate Russia talks throughout the week[12][13]

“Putin has not met his objectives. He has failed to break the spirit of the Ukrainian people. He has not triumphed in this war. We have safeguarded Ukraine, and we will exert every effort to attain peace and deliver justice.”[9]

“We remember today—and every day—what Ukraine has endured; but while we pay tribute to those lost and those suffering, we also stand in hope, inspired by four years of unbroken resistance and unwavering courage.”[11]

The war has resulted in hundreds of thousands of military casualties on both sides, marking it as Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II[9]. Russian strikes killed tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians through sustained missile and drone campaigns[9]. On the anniversary itself, Russian drones hit Zaporizhzhya[14]. The divergence is structural: Europe treats Ukraine as an existential security issue; America treats it as a negotiable transaction.

Hungary Blocks Ukraine Aid—Russian Proxy Within EU Structures

Hungary blocked European funding for Ukraine on February 24, the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion, constraining Ukraine’s ability to fund its military and weakening its negotiating position in U.S.-Russia talks[3]. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has consistently used veto power to obstruct aid packages for Kyiv.

February 24, Brussels: Hungary vetoed the European funding mechanism for Ukraine’s military support[3]

February 24, Brussels: European Commission announced it will submit a legal proposal for a permanent Russian oil ban on April 15 —three days after Hungary’s parliamentary election[15] February 2026, pattern analysis: Orbán’s veto timing coordinates with Russian strategic objectives by degrading Ukraine’s financial resilience during active negotiations

“Hungary’s veto over European funding could constrain Ukraine’s ability to fund its army and weaken its hand in U.S. talks with Russia over the war.”[3]

“The European Commission will submit a legal proposal to permanently ban Russian oil imports on April 15—three days after Hungary’s parliamentary election.”[15]

Orbán’s veto pattern reveals Hungary as a functional Russian proxy within EU decision-making. By blocking Ukraine aid on the war’s anniversary, Hungary is not obstructing policy—it is coordinating with Russian objectives. The EU’s post-election timing for the Russian oil ban indicates institutional recognition: Brussels is now explicitly scheduling major sanctions to circumvent Hungary’s predictable obstruction. This is evidence that the EU recognizes Hungary as a hostile actor within its own structures.

€500 Billion Defense Eurobonds—German Resistance Ending

Europe is advancing toward establishing a trillion-euro eurobond market to fund rapid defense buildup, with initial proposals targeting €500 billion over the next decade[1][16]. The plan involves a €150 billion Security Action for Europe (SAFE) facility for centralized defense funding and capital increase at the European Investment Bank, enabling deployment of up to €150 billion for EU defense supply chains[16].

February 23, Brussels: Reuters analysis revealed Europe can tap €500 billion through a combination of EIB capital increase, SAFE facility, and national fiscal flexibility under the Maastricht escape clause[1]

“The region can no longer rely on the US. So it needs its own satellite communications, air defences, a homegrown nuclear umbrella for Europe and more research spending.”[1]

“Combining new defense-related issuance with existing joint borrowing programs (including approximately €650 billion from the coronavirus era and €95 billion for Ukraine), Europe is on track to establish a eurobond market exceeding €1 trillion.”[16]

The scale of this fiscal mobilization is unprecedented in EU history. This represents the formalization of strategic autonomy—Europe is building a financial architecture to sustain military independence from the United States, including satellite communications, air defense, nuclear umbrella, and defense industrial capacity[1]. Germany’s potential acceptance of eurobonds would remove the final political obstacle to this transformation. This is not alliance management— this is the construction of a rival defense system.

EU Weakens Sustainability Rules—Energy Dependency as Political Leverage

EU countries gave final approval on February 24 to scale back rules requiring companies to address environmental and human rights risks in supply chains, following months of pressure from businesses and governments, including the United States and Qatar[6]. The Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) was significantly weakened from its original form.

February 24, Brussels: EU Council finalized rollback of CSDDD under pressure from U.S. and Qatar concerns about gas export disruption[6]

“Demands from the U.S. and Qatar for the EU to roll back the CSDDD were based on concerns that it could disrupt their gas exports to Europe. ExxonMobil has argued that the modifications do not go far enough.”[6]

“We are alleviating unnecessary and excessive burdens on our businesses with simpler, more focused, and more equitable regulations.”[6]

This rollback reveals the mechanism by which energy dependency serves as political leverage. The United States and Qatar—Europe’s primary LNG suppliers since the cutoff of Russian pipeline gas—explicitly demanded weakening of EU environmental and human rights standards as a condition for continued energy supply[6]. The EU’s capitulation demonstrates that strategic autonomy remains incomplete in the energy domain. Europe’s dependence on U.S. and Qatari gas gives suppliers veto power over European regulatory sovereignty. This is structural capture: energy suppliers dictating domestic governance standards.

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UNITED STATES

The Trump administration imposed a temporary 10% tariff on all goods not covered by exemptions on February 24, following the Supreme Court’s invalidation of previous emergency tariffs[4][17]. However, White House official stated the administration is “working to increase the rate” to 15%, the figure Trump announced Saturday[5][18].

February 24, Washington: The Trump administration implemented 10% temporary tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, intended for up to 150 days[19]

“We are facing a transitional period of a few months in relations with the U.S. after President Donald Trump’s new import surcharge, which threatens to undermine the trade deal the two sides struck last year.”[4]

“The Trump administration is working to increase the temporary tariff rate to 15% from 10%, an official said, after the president announced the higher figure on Saturday.”[5]

The tariff uncertainty reveals a fundamental breakdown in trade predictability. Trump announced 10%, then 15%, with unclear implementation timelines[5][18]. U.S. Customs and Border Protection

can only impose tariffs based on official presidential proclamations[5], creating legal and operational confusion. Tariffs include exemptions for critical minerals, energy, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and electronics[19]. Canada and Mexico, complying with USMCA, remain exempt[19]. The pattern exposes unilateral American mercantilism undermining alliance trade frameworks.

Pentagon AI for Mineral Pricing—Trade Bloc Excluding Allies

The Trump administration is developing a Pentagon AI program to set reference prices for critical minerals within a new trade bloc, according to sources familiar with the plan[2]. The program would establish pricing mechanisms for minerals essential to defense and technology sectors, potentially excluding traditional European allies from access.

February 24, Washington: Reuters reported Trump eyes Pentagon AI program for trade bloc’s minerals pricing[2] February 2026, strategic analysis: Program appears designed to create parallel trade architecture outside traditional alliance frameworks

“Trump eyes Pentagon AI program for trade block’s minerals pricing, sources say.”[2]

The Pentagon mineral pricing mechanism represents the construction of a mercantile trade bloc that treats Europe as a competitor rather than a partner. By establishing AI-driven reference pricing outside existing alliance frameworks, the U.S. is building a parallel trade architecture. This aligns with the broader pattern of American withdrawal from multilateral institutions and the construction of bilateral, transactional relationships. Combined with tariff chaos and USMCA pressures, this reveals a strategic reorientation: America is choosing mercantilism over alliance management.

Canada

Canada announced it will press OpenAI officials on February 24 about safety protocols after ChatGPT maker did not contact police about an account it banned belonging to an alleged mass shooter[22]. A government minister stated Canada would demand answers on OpenAI’s decision-making process and whether the company has adequate protocols to identify and report credible threats.

February 24, Ottawa: Canada announced it will press OpenAI officials on safety protocols following company’s failure to contact police about banned shooter account[22]

“Canada will press OpenAI officials on Tuesday about their safety protocols after it emerged the ChatGPT maker did not contact police about an account it banned belonging to an alleged mass shooter.”[22]

This incident exposes a governance vacuum surrounding AI platforms. OpenAI identified behavior severe enough for account termination, but did not escalate to law enforcement despite possessing evidence of potential violent intent. The pattern is consistent with broader tech-sector practices: platforms act as private arbiters of threat detection without public accountability or obligation to coordinate with state security apparatus. Canada’s intervention suggests governments recognizing this as a sovereignty issue—private companies making unilateral decisions about public safety without state oversight. This isthe privatization of security decision-making.

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Sources and Further Reading

[1] Reuters, “How Europe’s common defence can tap 500 bln euros,” February 23, 2026.

https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/how-europes-common-defence-can-tap-500-bln-euros-2026-02-23/

[2] Reuters, “Trump eyes Pentagon AI program for trade block’s minerals pricing, sources say,” February 24, 2026.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-eyes-pentagon-ai-program-trade-blocks-minerals-pricing-sources-say-2026-02-24/

[3] The Washington Post, “Hungary blocks Europe’s aid for Ukraine on war’s fourth anniversary,” February 24, 2026.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/02/24/european-funding-ukraine-delayed-orban/

[4] Reuters, “EU faces transition period with US after Trump tariff move, says EU trade chief,” February 24, 2026. https://www.reuters.com/business/eu-faces-transition-period-with-us-after-trump-tariff-move-says-eu-trade-chief-2026-02-24/

[5] Reuters, “Trump administration is working to increase temporary tariff rate to 15% from 10%, official says,” February 24, 2026.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-administration-is-working-increase-temporary-tariff-rate-15-10-official-2026-02-24/

[6] Reuters, “EU countries give final approval to weaken company sustainability laws,” February 24, 2026.

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/eu-countries-give-final-approval-to-weaken-company-sustainability-laws-2026-02-24/

[7] Reuters, “Ukraine remembers the fallen four years after Russia’s invasion,” February 24, 2026.

https://www.reuters.com/pictures/ukraine-remembers-fallen-four-years-after-russias-invasion-2026-02-24/

[8] CNN, “Trump administration updates,” February 23, 2026.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-administration-news-02-23-26

[9] Reuters, “Zelenskiy marks war anniversary vowing to fight on, with Ukraine’s independence defended,” February 24, 2026.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-says-ukraine-has-defended-its-independence-fourth-anniversary-war-2026-02-24/

[10] France Diplomatie, “Europe’s unwavering resolve,” February 23, 2026.

https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-files/ukraine/news/article/europe-s-unwavering-resolve-24-02-26

[11] NATO, “Marking four years since Russia’s full-scale invasion, NATO commemorates Ukraine,” February 23, 2026.

https://www.nato.int/en/news-and-events/articles/news/2026/02/24/nato-commemorates-the-fourth-anniversary-of-russias-full-scale-invasion-of-ukraine

[12] Reuters, “Leaders of G7 reaffirm unwavering support for Ukraine on war anniversary,” February 24, 2026. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/leaders-g7-reaffirm-unwavering-support-ukraine-war-anniversary-2026-02-24/

[13] CNN, “Trump administration updates,” February 23, 2026.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-administration-news-02-23-26

[14] Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “Ukraine marks 4th anniversary of full-scale war as Russia strikes Zaporizhzhya,” February 23, 2026.

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-marks-4th-annive rsary-of-full-scale-war/33687128.html

[15] Reuters, “EU to propose permanent ban on Russian oil after Hungary election, document shows,” February 24, 2026.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-propose-permanent-ban-on-russian-oil after-hungary-election-document-shows-2026-02-24/

[16] Morningstar, “Europe’s military buildup could create a bond market powerhouse that threatens to eclipse U.S. Treasurys,” February 20, 2026.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20260221194/europes-military-buildup-could-create-a-bond-market-powerhouse-that-threatens-to-eclipse-us-treasurys

[17] Reuters, “US to stop collecting tariffs deemed illegal by Supreme Court,” February 23, 2026.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-customs-agency-stop-collecting-tariffs-deemed-illegal-by-supreme-court-2026-02-23/

[18] Reuters, “New US tariff starts at 10%, Trump administration working to hike it to 15%,” February 24, 2026.

https://www.reuters.com/business/new-us-tariffs-come-lower-10-rate-2026-02-24/

[19] Yale Budget Lab, “State of Tariffs: February 21, 2026,” February 20, 2026.

https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-tariffs-february-21-2026

[20] Reuters, “US House votes against Canada tariffs in rare rebuke to Trump,” February 11, 2026.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-house-backs-bid-end-canada-tariffs-rare-rebuke-trump-2026-02-11/

[21] Reuters, “Canada, Mexico want a trilateral agreement under USMCA review, Canadian minister says,” February 18, 2026.

https://www.reuters.com/world/canada-mexico-want-trilateral-agreement-under-usmca-review-canadian-minister-2026-02-18/

[22] Reuters, “Canada to press OpenAI safety officials in wake of school shooting,” February 24, 2026.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-press-openai-safety-officials-wake-school-shooting 2026-02-24/

Thank you Sushipheliac 🍣🍥🍣(Jen Rust), julie elder, Ms.Yuse, PaulM, Michael Cenoz, and many others for tuning into my live video with Banner & Backbone Media! Join me for my next live video in the app.

Today’s Africa spotlight asks a hard question: Does the continent become the operating system of 21st‑century resource war, or the place where that model finally breaks?

My job is to give you the structure and the stakes. Your job is to decide what you’re going to do with it.

Now, let’s get into the news.

A World on Fire — African Spotlight

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Sudan

Drone Wars and the De Facto Partition

Over the past week, Sudan’s war has intensified around North and South Kordofan as drones repeatedly hit markets, villages, and aid convoys. The pattern hardens the de facto partition: SAF clings to Nile corridors while RSF and allied forces try to terrorize civilians in the agricultural belt into submission.

* On February 15, an alleged SAF drone hit the crowded Al Safiya market in Sudari locality, North Kordofan, killing at least 28 people and wounding dozens.

* On February 17, an RSF drone attack struck a humanitarian convoy near Abu Jubayhah in South Kordofan, killing three aid workers and injuring four others.

* The UN human rights chief says at least 57 civilians were killed in drone attacks in Kordofan over two days, calling out “disturbingly indiscriminate” strikes on markets and populated areas.

* International NGO and MSF statements this week describe repeated strikes on civilian areas and medical facilities, warning that people are “too terrified to leave their homes” even to seek treatment.

Over the past month, the balance in Kordofan has also shifted on the ground. SAF breakthroughs around Dilling and Kadugli in South Kordofan have partially broken long‑running sieges and reopened road links into North and West Kordofan, giving the army new axes to relieve pressure on el‑Obeid and threaten RSF‑held corridors toward Darfur.

“On 15 February, an alleged Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) drone struck the Al Safiya market in Sudari locality, North Kordofan, reportedly killing at least 28 people and wounding dozens more.”[7]

“Drone strikes are repeatedly hitting densely populated areas, including markets and villages… we are seeing wounded women and children who had simply gone out to buy food.”[4]

This is kinetic mercantilism in real time: both sides are using cheap drones to redraw where people can live, trade, and move, in order to secure territory and supply lines. Watch Kordofan—if this escalates further, it becomes the central theater that decides whether Sudan fractures permanently or is forced back to the table.

Horn of Africa & Red Sea

Somaliland and the Gaza Shadow

Since our last regional spotlight, regional debate has sharpened over Israel’s recognition of Somaliland and the Berbera port as a forward operating point in the Red Sea. The most recent commentary frames the move less as a one‑off diplomatic gambit and more as part of a contested post‑Gaza architecture.

* Berbera sits within reach of one of the busiest maritime corridors on earth.

* Formal recognition locks in a security presence at the mouth of the Red Sea.

* Critics across the Horn warn that using Somaliland as a pressure valve for Gaza‑linked displacement would turn the Horn itself into an extension of that conflict.

“The port of Berbera in Somaliland is situated near some of the most trafficked maritime routes… recognition grants Israel a foothold in the Horn of Africa at a time of wider Red Sea turmoil.”[8]

“The Netanyahu administration benefits from the notion that Somaliland might accept Palestinians displaced from Gaza… a prospect that has fuelled anger across the region.”[9]

Mogadishu’s break with Abu Dhabi over port and security deals is now being read against this backdrop: who gets to monetize the Red Sea chokepoint, and who pays the political price.

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

M23, Rwanda, and the New Phase of the War

In eastern DRC, the last week has confirmed that the conflict is entering a more dangerous phase, even as diplomats talk up “progress.” M23 is pressing around Goma and strategic routes in North Kivu, while Kinshasa accuses Rwanda of deepening its direct involvement.

* Fresh M23 attacks on FARDC positions were reported in North and South Kivu on February 18–19.

* Pro‑government Wazalendo fighters and FARDC units reportedly killed or captured newly‑graduated M23 recruits from a training facility near Tchanzu and clashed with M23‑aligned Twirwaneho and Ngumino militias around the South Kivu highlands on February 18–19.​

* Both sides accuse each other of violating a February 18 ceasefire: Wazalendo and FARDC say M23 launched new attacks on their positions, while M23 claims Congolese forces carried out ground and air strikes on its positions and nearby civilians on February 19–20.​

* Refugee flows into Burundi’s already‑overwhelmed camps have increased as people flee fighting in North Kivu.

“The FARDC accused M23 of attacking its positions in North and South Kivu on February 18 and 19… and claimed that Rwandan special forces participated in the attacks.”[5]

“Despite some progress in talks, M23 rebels continue to control key areas and civilians are still bearing the brunt of hostilities in North Kivu.”[6]

The mineral war and the territorial war are now fused. Whoever controls the Kivu corridor controls the coltan and logistics that feed the global chip and EV economy; the last week confirms no one is giving that up voluntarily.

Niger and the Sahel

ISSP at Niamey’s Doorstep

In the Sahel, the biggest shift since your last coverage is how close the Islamic State–Sahel Province (ISSP) has pushed toward Niamey and how brazen it was in doing so. The January 30 attack on the capital’s airport and adjoining airbase still dominates analysis of Niger’s trajectory this week.

* ISSP fighters penetrated Diori Hamani International Airport and an adjacent airbase.

* Video‑verified footage shows militants moving on the tarmac near civilian aircraft, firing weapons and setting facilities ablaze.

* Authorities say at least 20 militants were killed and four soldiers wounded; ISSP claimed the attack as retaliation for Niger’s cooperation with foreign forces.

“The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for a deadly attack on Niamey’s international airport and a nearby airbase… the first such assault on the capital’s critical infrastructure.”[13]

“Gun‑wielding IS militants roamed freely on the airport tarmac near stationary commercial planes and aircraft hangars, firing into the air as they moved across the runway.”[14]

The past few weeks have turned Niamey into a test of the junta’s model: can a regime built on anti‑Western rhetoric and Russian and regional partnerships actually stop ISSP from normalizing capital‑adjacent attacks?

Nigeria

Massacres in the Periphery

Nigeria has seen a brutal string of attacks in the northwest and Middle Belt in the last two weeks, undercutting any claim that the federal government is regaining control.

* In early February, militants massacred scores of civilians in Nuku and Woro towns in Kwara State in one of the deadliest attacks in years.

* On February 14, gunmen on motorcycles attacked three villages in Niger State’s Borgu region, killing at least 30–46 people and abducting others.

* Residents described more than 200 attackers operating for hours, beheading some victims and torching shops despite the proximity of a Nigerian Air Force base.

“Likely Boko Haram militants massacred at least 170 civilians in one of the deadliest attacks in Nigeria in recent years… tying the hands and feet of several of their victims, slitting some of their throats, and burning homes and shops in both towns over several hours.”[12]

“The bandits stormed our town around 3:00 a.m., riding so many motorcycles while shooting sporadically, beheading six people and killing others… They set shops ablaze and compelled the entire village to flee.” [16]

Nigeria is a bellwether. If Abuja cannot stabilize the rural periphery, the spillover into the Sahel, the Gulf of Guinea, and even Atlantic energy markets will be sharp.

South Africa and the Economic Architecture

The China Pivot Moves From Talk to Terms

South Africa spent the past two weeks turning its China pivot from a talking point into signed terms. Trade and political actors on both sides now talk openly about zero‑tariff access and structural changes to how South African exports reach the Chinese market.

* Trade Minister Parks Tau travelled to China to finalize an agreement allowing South African goods into the Chinese market duty‑free.

* The partnership reportedly grants zero‑tariff access to nearly all South African tariff lines, with a focus on agriculture and strategic minerals.

* South African experts say full duty‑free access across 100 percent of tariff lines could materially reshape export patterns and industrial policy.

“South African experts have welcomed China’s decision to grant duty‑free access across 100 percent of tariff lines for South African exports, describing the move as significant to the country’s trade structure and industrial development.”[20]

“Tau’s journey arrives during a period when South Africa is focused on diversifying its markets and increasing export opportunities.”[21]

This is the other side of the Africa story: even as wars burn in Kordofan, Kivu, and the Sahel, trade corridors and tariff regimes are being quietly rewired to lock in a world where African resources flow to whoever offers the best combination of cash, cover, and no questions asked.

Thank you for reading.

A last note… Even if you can’t become a paid subscriber, you can help fan the flames of resistance. By restacking, commenting, liking, and sharing every post on other media platforms, you can accelerate the ignition of our movement.

I appreciate each one of you.

Burn Bright.

Shane

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MORE GEOPOLITICS— LAST WEEK’S MIDDLE EAST SPOTLIGHT AND MY INVESTIGATION INTO THE EPSTEIN FILES

Sources and Further Reading

[1] Al Jazeera, “[Three aid workers killed, 4 wounded in RSF drone attack in Sudan’s Kordofan](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/20/three-aid-workers-killed-4-wounded-in-rsf-drone-attack-in-sudans-kordofan ),” February 20, 2026.

[2] UN Human Rights Office (OHCHR), “[Sudan: Türk alarmed after scores killed in drone attacks in two days](https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2026/02/sudan-turk-alarmed-after-scores-killed-drone-attacks-two-days ),” February 18, 2026.

[3] The Firebrand Project, “[The Firebrand Report Live 2/18/26: Tech Billionaires Flood to India…](https://thefirebrandproject.substack.com/p/the-firebrand-report-live-21826tech ),” February 17, 2026.

[4] Médecins Sans Frontières, “[Drone strikes repeatedly hit civilian areas in Sudan](https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/latest/drone-strikes-repeatedly-hit-civilian-areas-sudan ),” February 18, 2026.

[5] INGO Forum, “[Deeply Alarmed by Drone Attacks on Civilians and Civilian Infrastructure in Sudan](https://reliefweb.int/report/sudan/ingo-forum-deeply-alarmed-drone-attacks-civilians-and-civilian-infrastructure-sudan ),” February 16, 2026.

[6] ACAPS, “[Sudan – Conflict-induced displacement in North and South Kordofan](https://reliefweb.int/report/sudan/acaps-briefing-note-sudan-conflict-induced-displacement-north-and-south-kordofan-11-february-2026 ),” February 10, 2026.

[7] Al Jazeera, “[Drone attack on busy market in Sudan kills at least 28](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/16/drone-strike-on-busy-market-in-sudan-kills-at-least-28 ),” February 16, 2026.

[8] Al Jazeera, “[Somaliland recognition: Israel’s foothold in the Horn of Africa](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/9/somaliland-recognition-israels-foothold-in-the-horn-of-africa),” January 9, 2026.

[9] Al Jazeera, “[Why Israel’s recognition of Somaliland backfired](https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/1/16/why-israels-recognition-of-somaliland-backfired ),” January 16, 2026.

[10] UN News, “[M23 rebels: UN sees progress in talks but warns violence persists](https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/02/1166899 ),” February 4, 2026.

[11] Critical Threats Project, “[Congo War Security Review, February 20, 2026](https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/congo-war-security-review/february-20-2026 ),” February 19, 2026.

[12] Critical Threats Project, “[Boko Massacre in Nigeria; Ethiopia on the Brink; M23 Drone Attack](https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/boko-haram-nigeria-tplf-ethiopia-red-sea-drc-m23-rwanda-isis-niger-saf-rsf-sudan-africa ),” February 4, 2026.

[13] Reuters, “[Islamic State claims deadly attack on airport in Niger capital](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/islamic-state-claims-deadly-attack-airport-niger-capital-2026-01-30/ ),” January 30, 2026.

[14] The Guardian, “[Islamic State claims attack on international airport and airbase in Niger](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/30/niger-airport-airbase-attack-islamic-state ),” January 30, 2026.

[15] Council on Foreign Relations, “[Violent Extremism in the Sahel](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violent-extremism-sahel ),” updated February 2026.

[16] Reuters, “[Assailants kill at least 30 in northwest Nigeria villages, residents say](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/assailants-kill-least-30-northwest-nigeria-villages-residents-say-2026-02-14/ ),” February 14, 2026.

[17] Al Jazeera, “[Death toll in northern Nigeria attack by gunmen rises to 46, says report](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/15/gunmen-kill-at-least-32-people-in-northern-nigeria-residents-say ),” February 14, 2026.

[18] Committee to Protect Journalists, “[Threats, exile, censorship: DRC journalists besieged in year of rebel rule](https://cpj.org/2026/01/threats-exile-censorship-drc-journalists-besieged-in-year-of-rebel-rule/ ),” January 27, 2026.

[19] Reuters, “[South Africa’s trade minister heads to China, seeking duty-free export access](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africas-trade-minister-heads-china-seeking-duty-free-export-access-2026-02-05/ ),” February 5, 2026.

[20] Xinhua, “[S. African experts welcome duty-free access granted by China](https://english.news.cn/africa/20260223/a9ff1bf9f62342a78cf2e3b94a7decfa/c.html ),” February 23, 2026.

[21] People’s Dispatch, “[South Africa and China sign trade partnership granting zero-tariff access](https://peoplesdispatch.org/2026/02/11/south-africa-and-china-sign-trade-partnership-granting-zero-tariff-access/ ),” February 9, 2026.

[22] ACLED, “[Africa Overview: February 2026](https://acleddata.com/update/africa-overview-february-2026 ),” February 2026.

[23] Eurafrica Press & News, “[Africa Overview: February 2026](https://eurafrica.info/2026/02/22/africa-overview-february-2026/ ),” February 21, 2026.

Thank you Lisa | We Are The Third Estate, Nancy B., Vicki Parker, Kim Yirak, Dawn Marrow, and many others for tuning into my live video with Banner & Backbone Media! Join me for my next live video in the app.

For $6 a month, you can support transparent worldwide pro-democracy reporting. Help keep the Firebrand Project Burning throughout 2026.

Firebrands and new readers alike,

Today was something different; I decided to look into the Epstein files. What I have found is what appears to be a meeting between Epstein, Ehud Barak, Vitaly Churkin, and Tom Barrack.

I discuss all of my findings with you in the livestream, sharing what my research yielded, the questions I still have, and how you can help!

Below is a keyword guide as well as an outline of the mystery that we are facing, and solving it could tell us so much about the plans Epstein had for his next sex trafficking paradise, how he manipulated the UN, the Israeli-Russian connection, and so much more!

This is where Geopolitics and Epstein collide! You can help solve this mystery by using this guide to locate evidence within the Epstein file database!

Help me answer the questions below by using the terms in italics by copy pasting them into the search bar.

If you find something, which you will, download it as a .pdf file, then send over the info that could help us put the puzzle together to me at Firebrandproject@proton.me

Open Source Key Word Searches

The Questions we are trying to answer:

* What was discussed at the meeting between JE, Tom Barrack, Ehud Barak, and Vitaly Churkin?

* Look for further context in the meeting planning or follow-up emails.

* Determine what Barrack was doing prior, and who is the “Favorite Saudi.”

* Is it documented what each individual did after the meeting? Where did they go after?

* Who did Epstein choose to build Great St. James?

* Establish whether or not the contract w/ Howerton was approved.

* What other companies/ architecture firms were bidding on the contract?

* Who did Epstein buy the Island from?

* Is there more correspondence between Lesley Groff and Dianne Nielson?

The Meeting on 8/29/16 Timeline

The Meeting and the Contract for Great St. James

* ?08/27/16? Tom Barrack meets w/ Saudi Rep Prince Bandar bin Khalid Al Faisal?

* 08/28/16 Barrack sends contact Card with Howerton Contact.

* 08/29/16 Churkin, Barak, Barrack, and JE have lunch.

* 08/31/16 Probably Groff to Epstein... still waiting.

* 9/1/16 Groff to Epstein Confirms Skype w/ Tinson to JE

* 9/2/16 Skype Call w/ Jim Tinson, CEO of Hart Howard

* 9/16/16 Groff follows up on behalf of JE with Hart Howerton

* Communication from Jim Tinson-- Confirms contract is for ‘Great’ St James.

Names too look for…

Terje / Terje Rod-Larsen

Norwegian diplomat and former president of the International Peace Institute

Tom Barrack

* Colony Capital

* Provided Contact for David Howerton to Epstein

Hart Howerton (Architecture Firm in San Francisco)

* Owned by David Howerton

* Jim Tinson, CEO of Hart Howerton

* Dianne Nielson, Executive Assistant at Hart Howerton

Great St. James

* Purchased from Christian Kjaer on Jan 18th, 2016

Darren K Indyke

* Epstein’s Lawyer?

Lesley Groff

* Epsteins Assistant

* Handling communications with Hart Howerton

Merwin dela cruz

* Changed Epstein Apartment Codes

* Received ‘Refrigerator Training’

* Received instructions from Groff

Fabrice Bourg

* Sent drone footage of ‘Epstein’s Islands.’

Other Names

Prince Bandar bin Khalid Al Faisal

Thorbjørn Jagland, Norwegian diplomat

Umirzak Shukeyev, Kazakh politician

Pout Christian Tage Kjaer

Kevin F. D’Arnour

Richard Kahn

Thank you for reading and happy hunting, I cannot wait to see what we find!

A last note… Even if you can’t become a paid subscriber, you can help fan the flames of resistance. By restacking, commenting, liking, and sharing every post on other media platforms, you can accelerate the ignition of our movement.

I appreciate each one of you.

Burn Bright.

Shane

Make a One-Time Donation!

This work is entirely Firebrand Funded! Consider becoming a paid or founding subscriber, and scribe your name on the Wall of Fire

Click the Seal and Subscribe or Upgrade today!

The Firebrand Report is now streaming on Banner & Backbone Media

Yesterdays Geopolitics- Asia and Indo-Pacific Spotlight

Thank you AmericanCitizen, Jeanne Elbe, Ms.Yuse, Mason/She/Her🩷💜💙, cmdr cool, and many others for tuning into my live video with Banner & Backbone Media! Join me for my next live video in the app.

Today, I intended to dive into the Epstein files; however, geopolitics never stops, and today’s developments in the Indo-Asian Pacific warrant discussion. Realistically, the region is large, and I have to choose what I cover. Today’s stories are representative of the overall regional dynamics; they can give observers insight into the different directions countries are moving and what that means for foreign policy, conflict, and diplomacy as we move further into 2026.

Let’s get into the news.

For $6 a month, you can support transparent worldwide pro-democracy reporting. Help keep the Firebrand Project Burning throughout 2026.

A World on Fire— Breaking News Around the World: Asian and Indo-Pacific Spotlight

Thailand and Cambodia

Cambodia and Thailand’s Conflict Faces Fragile Ceasefire

* Cambodia and Thailand have long-standing disputes over disputed border regions, primarily the historical sites of Preah Vihear and Ta Muen Thom, dating back to the 9th century.

* Following a longstanding territorial dispute, in 1962, the ICJ ruled that Preah Vihear belonged to Cambodia but did not rule on other territories.

* When Cambodia inscribed Preah Vihear as a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 2008, it re-escalated territorial tensions, leading to border conflicts in 2008 and 2011

* In July of 2025, conflict broke out and fighting lasted for several days along the Thai-Cambodian border. Following U.S. pressure, a fragile ceasefire was established.

* Despite the ceasefire, conflict broke out in December 2025. On December 27th, 2025, a new ceasefire was instituted.

* Hundreds of thousands were displaced by these conflicts on both sides of the border, and both countries have accused the other of violating the ceasefire.

* More than 4 billion in global trade was disrupted, affecting the price of advanced technology production and interuppting semi-conductor manufacturing.

The roots of the conflict lie in centuries of cultural rivalry, colonial-era treaties, and contested territorial claims over temples on the border. From the 9th to the 15th century, the Khmer (Cambodian) empire dominated much of mainland Southeast Asia, including large parts of modern Thailand, Laos, and Vietnam, profoundly influencing the region’s art, architecture, and political traditions. [3]

The Ongoing Humanitarian Impact

* The Cambodian Ministry of Interior announced that 74,000 remain displaced, including 25,000 children, since the most recent flare-up in 2025.

* The Ministry reported that the conflict displaced 570,000 people in Cambodia, since 88% have returned home.

* In the contested Preah Vihear region, 29 schools and 14 health centers remain closed, with similar scenarios in other border regions.

* Cambodia has also accused Thailand of destroying civilian infrastructure and illegal construction on Cambodian territory.

The government issued a formal protest against what it called “dishonest activities” by Thai armed forces. Recent reports suggest the demolition of civilian infrastructure in Thmar Puok district and unlawful construction, including the digging of ditches and roads, in O’Chrov district. [2]

Cambodian PM Claims Thailand is Occupying Territory Despite Ceasefire

* Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Manet claims that the Thai military still occupies territory deep within the recognized borders of Cambodia.

* Thailand has laid shipping containers and barbed wire and has been digging trenches.

* Cambodia’s Prime Minister travelled to a meeting of the Board of Peace to seek aid in mediating the conflict and protecting Cambodia’s sovereignty.

* Thailand claims the military presence is part of the ceasefire de-escalation and that it will withdraw following its February 8th elections.

* Caretaker Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul dissolved Thailand’s Parliament in the early days of the conflict in December 2025, and recently regained power as PM amid a nationalist surge in the February elections.

* Thailand still maintains a military presence despite this benchmark having passed.

Cambodian Prime Minister– Hun Manet

“Now the election is done, we hope that Thailand can start, at least on a technical level, to start measuring, start demarcating in the hot zone, so that we can go back to life,” Hun Manet said. [4]

The Conflict is Damaging Both Countries Economies

* An investigation by The Nation Thailand found that local economies are suffering due to conflict between the countries.

* Local markets were closed, and business owners have been facing financial strain for 2-3 months.

* People on both sides are calling on their governments to end the fighting and mitigate economic hardship.

Unnamed Cambodian Trader in Rong Kleu Market

“We want Thailand and Cambodia to sit down and talk properly. If a conflict breaks out again, it’s the people, the traders on both sides, who suffer. No one benefits from war,” he said. [1]

China and Taiwan

Europe’s Evolving Relationship with Taiwan

* An interview with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te by Agence France-Presse (AFP) discussed the relationship between Europe and Taiwan, and the relationship between Taiwan and the United States

* He clarified that Taiwan, or the Republic of China, is independent of the People’s Republic of China and that China cannot annex Taiwan.

* He clarified that Chinese annexation would not stop at Taiwan, and that it would lead to an upending of regional stability.

* He stated that he hoped to collaborate more with the EU on Defense and AI projects in the future, noting that Europe is Taiwan’s third-largest trading partner.

* He stated support for Ukraine and praised European Values

* He discussed the deadlock over a $40 billion defense spending bill and dismissed concerns about whether it will pass

* Ching-te expressed confidence that Taiwan can defend itself and will not be used as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations between China and the US.

* He also stated that the semiconductor supply chain is an ecosystem involving the United States and Japan, praising the relationship between Japan and Taiwan amid Chinese aggression.

* He said US policy on Taiwan has been consistent despite US action in Venezuela, citing the US’s interest in semiconductor manufacturing.

Statement from the Office of the President of The Republic of China (Taiwan)

The president stated that for the US, the situation in Venezuela has not come at the expense of their focus on Indo-Pacific affairs. In fact, the most recent US National Security Strategy makes its four priorities clear. The first is ensuring the security of the American homeland, with the recent operations in Venezuela a part of this. Second, it calls for shifting greater strategic focus to the Indo-Pacific to preserve peace and stability, with the objective of deterring China’s expansionism. Third, the report calls for greater collective defense and burden-sharing amongst Indo-Pacific partners. And the fourth, it seeks to reindustrialize the US. In other words, the National Security Strategy identifies the Indo-Pacific region as a clear focus. The US will not withdraw from the Indo-Pacific nor allow China to displace its role in the Western Pacific. [7]

Chinese Purges See Justice Minister Handed Life Sentence

* On February 2nd, former Justice Minister Tang Yijun was sentenced to life in prison for corruption, according to state CCTV.

* Tang was deprived of political rights for life and had all of his personal property confiscated, CCTV said.

* The accusations against him involved bribery, with more than 19 million USD or 137 million Yuan in real estate.

* This comes after China saw a purge of military leadership, including the Top General Zhang Youxia and other senior leaders.

Ruling by the Xiamen Intermediate People’s Court in the southeastern coastal Fujian province

“Tang’s actions constituted the crime of bribery,” the court said in its ruling, adding that the sums involved were “particularly huge” and caused “particularly serious losses” to the interests of the state and the people. [11]

Tensions Rise with China as US Moves to Deploy Missile Launchers to the Philippines

* The United States stated it plans to deploy missiles to the Philippines on Tuesday, citing what it called China’s “illegal, coercive, aggressive, and deceptive activities.”

* China has protested the US deployment of advanced anti-ship missile systems in the Philippines and asked The Phillipines president Ferdinand Marcos Jr. for their removal, which he refused.

* The Typhon missile system can launch Tomahawk and Standard Missile-6 missiles, which can strike targets up to 1,600 km (1,000 miles) away, enabling direct strikes on China.

* The Filipino Ambassador to the United States claims that the move is only for deterrence.

Philippine Ambassador to the United States – Jose Manuel Romualdez

“It’s a kind of system that’s really very sophisticated and will be deployed here in the hope that, down the road, we will be able to get our own,” [9]

India and Pakistan

India Eases Trade Restrictions on Chinese Equiptment Imports

* Trade between China and India has been highly limited following a border clash in 2020.

* The easing of 5 year restrictions opens up some of the 700 billion USD Indian contracting market to Chinese companies.

* The changes allow the procurement of Chinese power transmission components, and India is now considering loosening restrictions on access to Indian coal-sector equipment.

* The decision comes after trade ties between the countries deepened following Donald Trump’s 50% tariff on Indian goods.

* India aims to expand its non-fossil energy capacity to 500 GW by 2030 to address supply bottlenecks.

India has now allowed state-run entities to procure a power-transmission component from China without government approval.

It is weighing a similar, time-bound exemption for key coal-sector equipment, the two officials said.

The exemption was granted in the “national interest,” as blocking Chinese imports would hurt India’s manufacturing capability, one of the officials said.

A panel of top bureaucrats has approved the waiver, with a formal order expected soon, the two sources said.

The easing follows repeated requests from government departments facing shortages and project delays under the 2020 restrictions, both officials said.

India may allow case‑by‑case imports of critical Chinese equipment rather than fully reopen procurement, the officials said. [10]

Tech Billionaires Fly to Delhi for AI Expo

* Prime Minister Narendra Modi will speak with tech billionaires at an AI summit in Delhi this week. He positions India as the global leader in AI for South Asia and North Africa.

* Leaders from major US tech companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, will attend.

* Observers point out that Narendra Modi’s motivations may be rooted in using AI for surveillance and curtailing civil liberties, framing it as “techno-Gandhism.”

* This represents a broader trend of global competition over AI technology. UN Secretary António Guterres highlighted the importance of equal access to AI for all nations.

Summit observers talk of a battle between a new kind of AI colonialism from the US tech firms and an alternative “techno-Gandhism”, in which AI is used for social justice and to benefit marginalised people. [6]

India Plans to Cut off Pakistan’s Access to Water in Violation of the Indus Water Treaty

* India suspended the Indus Waters treaty following the resurgence of hostilities in 2025, allowing it to expedite work on the Shahpur Kandi dam along the Punjab-Jammu and Kashmir border.

* The regional minister announced that the project should be completed on March 31st and will be used to divert water to drought-prone districts.

* The Ravi river where the dam is being built, provides surplus water to Pakistan. India claims that, because the Ravi River is Indian territory, it can build this dam without violating existing agreements.

* Pakistani agriculture is 80-90% dependent on water from the Indus River system.

Jammu and Kashmir Minister- Javed Ahmed Rana

“Excess water to Pakistan will be stopped. It has to be stopped. Kathua and Samba districts are drought-hit areas, and this project, which is our priority, is being constructed for the Kandi area,” [5]

Pakistani Punjab Police Kills 900 in Eight Months

* The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) documented 670 encounters that resulted in 924 deaths between April 2025 and December 2025.

* A fact-finding report stated that Punjab’s Control Department (CCD) is pursuing “a systemic policy of extrajudicial killing in contravention of the law and Constitution”.

* The region is historically one of the regions where encounter killings began to take place in the 1960s.

* Police Reports indicate that tactics by police are usually interception of individuals moving “supsicously” suggesting that justification is effectively a straw man argument to cover for unwarranted violence. As well as copy pasted elements across multiple reports.

* The department claims that it is following an “intelligence-driven policing model,” and refused to comment when Al Jazeera reached out.

* Court filings are ongoing.

An anonymous former senior Punjab police official who retired in the 2010s– Interviewed by AlJazeera

Court delays and weak prosecutions create “frustration amongst the people and the police, and they start legitimising shortcuts like extrajudicial killings. The political government wants to be seen as controlling crime, even violating due process. This approach also encourages police to resort to extrajudicial killings, knowing there won’t be any accountability for such actions,” [12]

Japan

Japan Provides Plans for Deal with US to Counter China on Critical Minerals

* Japan has announced plans to invest 36 billion USD in the first wave of collaboration on mineral, oil, and gas projects.

* Trump announced the launch, celebrating collaboration on offshore drilling in Texas and synthetic diamond manufacturing.

* The total package holds 550 billion USD in investment and was established last year. As part of the deal, tariff reductions and fewer restrictions on Japanese car imports were included.

* These efforts come at a time when tensions between China and Japan are at their highest in decades, driven by aggressive rhetoric from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and the U.S. scrambling to circumvent China’s dominance in minerals.

* This first wave of investment will focus on a plant in Ohio that will produce 9.2 Gigawatts of Electricity and an artificial diamond manufacturing plant in Georgia, valued at 600 million USD. Diamond grit is essential for Semiconductor Manufacturing.

US Secretary of Commerce– Howard Lutnick (Nutlick)

“Japan is providing the capital,” “The infrastructure is being built in the United States. The proceeds are structured so Japan earns its return, and America gains strategic assets, expanded industrial capacity, and strengthened energy dominance.” [14]

IMF and Urges Caution Regarding Campaign Promises to Temporarily Suspend the 8% Consumption Tax while Political Allies Endorse the Action.

* Following Sanae Takaichi’s big win in securing a major majority in parliament, the IMF has cautioned Japan against reducing consumption taxes, citing a risk of eroding economic resilience.

* The IMF praised the Bank of Japan (BOJ) for managing inflation through gradual increases in the policy rate.

* It also warned against political meddling in the BOJ’s affairs and urged Japan to stay on track to maintain neutral rates in 2027.

* The IMF expects the BOJ to raise rates twice this year to stay on target.

* The Head of Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, called for Takaichi’s government to move forward with the temporary pause of 8% consumption tax, whilst avoiding meddling in the BOJ’s policy in response to the decision.

* There is concern that Sanae Takaichi could back away from the campaign promise that was central to her historic victory; analysts speculate this may be an effort to pressure her to avoid backtracking.

“Near-term fiscal policy should refrain from further loosening,” the IMF said in the statement, calling for a credible medium-term fiscal framework with a “clearly defined fiscal anchor.”

“High and persistent debt levels, together with a deteriorating fiscal balance, leave Japan’s economy exposed to a range of shocks,” the IMF said, warning that interest rate payments are projected to double from 2025 to 2031 as debt is rolled over at higher yields. [15]

Junior Coalition Head of Japanese Innovation Party– Hirofumi Yoshimura

“Japan’s government must avoid meddling in monetary policy and focus on steps to build an economy strong enough to weather the potential pain from any further interest rate hikes, Japan must also proceed with a two-year suspension to the 8% sales tax on food at the earliest date possible and consider tapping its huge foreign exchange reserves as among sources of revenue” [13]

Thank you for reading.

A last note… Even if you can’t become a paid subscriber, you can help fan the flames of resistance. By restacking, commenting, liking, and sharing every post on other media platforms, you can accelerate the ignition of our movement.

I appreciate each one of you.

Burn Bright.

Shane

Make a One-Time Donation!

This work is entirely Firebrand Funded! Consider becoming a paid or founding subscriber, and scribe your name on the Wall of Fire

Click the Seal and Subscribe or Upgrade today!

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Sources and Further Reading

[1] https://www.nationthailand.com/news/40062674

[2]https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501847533/tens-of-thousands-remain-displaced-as-cambodia-protests-continued-thai-border-activity/

[3]https://www.britannica.com/event/Thailand-Cambodia-Conflict

[4]https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/cambodia-prime-minister-hun-manet-thailand-occupy-territory-ceasefire-5937531

[5]https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/after-indus-water-treaty-india-to-cut-pakistans-access-to-surplus-ravi-waters-11051557

[6]https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/feb/18/delhi-ai-expo-modi-jostles-lead-south

[7]https://english.president.gov.tw/News/7084

[8]https://ceias.eu/partners-in-need-partners-indeed-europe-taiwan-relations/

[9]https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-plans-to-deploy-more-missile-launchers-to-the-philippines-despite-chinas-opposition

[10]https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/india-eases-curbs-chinese-equipment-imports-power-coal-projects-delayed-sources-2026-02-18/

[11]https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-hands-life-sentence-former-justice-minister-over-bribery-2026-02-02/

[12]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/18/pakistans-punjab-police-kill-900-people-in-eight-months-whats-going-on

[13]https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-junior-coalition-head-warns-against-political-meddling-boj-policy-2026-02-16/

[14]https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/feb/18/us-japan-critical-minerals-agreement-oil-gas-projects-deal

[15]https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/imf-urges-japan-keep-raising-rates-avoid-reducing-sales-tax-2026-02-17/

Catch up on Geopolitics with yesterdays American EU Spotlight!

Thank you PJ Schuster, Elizabeth Raven, Under the Golden Boot, Ms.Yuse, PaulM, and many others for tuning into my live video with Banner & Backbone Media! Join me for my next live video in the app.

Firebrands and new readers alike,

In today’s Livestream/Newsletter, we will cover developments in Ukraine and the evolving security situation across Europe. We will address the significant posture shift in Europe following the Munich Security Conference, as well as American realignment in Europe. We will examine the critical election cycle in the United States and developments in its premier court, the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS). We are seeing a clear decoupling of the world order, and this is a turning point.

For my comments and analysis, watch the livestream above!

Let’s get into the news.

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A World on Fire: Breaking News Around the World: American and European Spotlight

Russia and Ukraine

Russian Demands Continue to Make Peace in Ukraine Impossible

* The Kremlin announced the delegation that will attend the tri-lateral talks in Geneva, Switzerland, between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States.

* Parallel meetings in Geneva will take place between U.S. and Russian Officials representing the Russian Direct Investment Fund, likely regarding the U.S.-Russian bilateral economic group.

* Russian Officials are citing the agreement between Trump and Putin at the Alaska Summit in 2025 to guide Russian Demands, among these capitulation and surrendering of the Donbas to Russia

Peskov stated that the Geneva talks would discuss a “broader” range of issues than previous talks in Abu Dhabi and would particularly discuss territorial issues. [1]

Russia Occupies Pokrovsk

* Russian forces have successfully taken the city of Pokrovsk after nearly two years of fighting.

* The battle for the western portion of Pokrovsk, held by Ukrainian forces, has been ongoing since October 2025.

In recent weeks/months, the area east of Pokrovsk (zone 1) was first closed off by Russians, which initially gave Ukrainians room to defend Myrnohrad without getting outflanked. Then, after the recent fall of Rodyns’ke and the surrounding area (zone 2), the remaining positions near Myrnohrad (zone 3) became untenable. [2]

Russia Builds out Drone Operations

* Russia is expanding its investments in drone technology, including support and air defense roles.

* Roscosmos head Dimitry Rogozin said that the BARS-Sarmat Unmanned Systems Special Purpose Center is increasing recruitment and developing more specialized roles and combat units.

* Two new detachments focused on deep-strike capabilities with a 30-35km range are part of this new program.

The BARS-Sarmat Center stated that it is developing a “new” military specialty role called the “soldier technologist” — a role likely designed to facilitate the development and integration of drone capabilities across Russian combat forces writ large. [1]

Sabotage Operations in Europe

* The Financial Times reported on February 15th that Western Intelligence officials confirmed that former Wagner Group recruiters are organizing sabotage operations in Europe.

* Russia is leveraging these relationships to maintain degrees of separation from the attacks.

* They are targeting Europeans who are economically vulnerable to carry out these attacks.

The Wagner Group recruiters are reportedly trying to attract Europeans, particularly those who are “economically vulnerable” or lack purpose or direction in their lives, to conduct arson attacks or to pose as putative Nazi propagandists in Europe. [1]

Ukraine Makes Record Gains

* Ukraine has made the most gains in a series of successful counterattacks between Sunday and Wednesday of last week, totalling 201 sq km of territory liberated from Russian Occupation.

* This is the most effective week Ukraine has had since the 2023 counteroffensive.

* This comes on the heels of Starlink connection being cut off for Russian forces across Ukraine.

The recaptured land is concentrated mainly to the east of the city of Zaporizhzhia, in an area where Russian troops have made significant progress since mid-2025. “These Ukrainian counterattacks are likely leveraging the recent block on Russian forces’ access to Starlink, which Russian milbloggers (military bloggers) have claimed is causing communications and command and control issues on the battlefield,” said the ISW thinktank. [3]

United States and North America

United States Upcoming Elections in the Texas Senate

* Early voting for critical primaries, including a Senate race in Texas, begins on March 3rd.

* Jasmine Crockett and James Talrico will run in the primary for the Democratic Nomination for a Senate seat in Texas.

* The race is uncomfortable for Republican incumbents as popularity with Latino voters carried Trump and republicans in 2024.

* Further concern is raised by the capture of a state senate seat in a district Trump carried by 17 points.

* Republican support is split between Ken Paxton, who was impeached from his seat in the Texas House for bribery and corruption, and incumbent John Coryn.

* Coryn is backed by wealthy Republican donors, and Paxton has received an endorsement from Turning Point USA, formerly led by Charlie Kirk and now headed by his widow, Erika Kirk.

Despite her late entry into the race, Crockett appears to be approaching the final stretch with momentum. A recent University of Houston survey found her leading Talarico, 47% to 39%. The poll also showed both candidates broadly popular with Democratic primary voters, a measure of enthusiasm reflected in their grassroots fundraising and online reach. [10]

The US Supreme Court Announces Software Integration to Detect “Conflicts of Interest.”

* The US Supreme Court announced it will use software to identify conflicts of interest among the justices.

* The court says it will build this software itself through the Supreme Court’s Information Technology Office.

Gabe Roth of the advocacy group Fix the Court called the new development “somewhat positive,” noting his general opposition to justices owning stocks during their tenure on the bench.

“The court wrote at the end of the code that it would ‘undertake an examination of best practices’ on judicial ethics, and the use of conflict-check software is a best practice,” Roth said, noting software-based checks have long been used by lower courts. [12]

Big Tech Floods California Elections with Millions ahead of November Elections

* Google and Meta have ramped up their involvement in California Elections, as have Palantir’s founders and crypto investors.

* California has struggled to curb the tech industry’s influence because of Governor Newsom’s support for it.

* Donations are being spread out, scaling from local to state officials.

* The introduction of a 5% billionaire tax has caused several prominent individuals to leave the state.

* META is launching PACs, including META, and added two last Fall, as well as Crypto industry-aligned PACs as well.

* The Billionaire lobby appears to have chosen Matt Mahan as their pick for governor. Mahan identifies as a moderate Democrat.

Tech billionaires are contributing to campaigns ranging from candidates for governor to local city council and school board races. They are also donating heavily to groups campaigning for relaxed taxation and minimal regulation around AI. [11]

Meta launched two new Super PACs last fall,focused on dialing back AI regulation and supporting AI-friendly candidates. The company contributed $45m to one, the American Technology Excellence Project, which will operate in several states but has not yet established a committee in California. The other, Mobilizing Economic Transformation Across (Meta) California, is state-specific and has received one $20m contribution from Meta. [11]

US Strikes Continue in Pacific and Caribbean

* The United States announced that it has carried out three more strikes in the Pacific and Carribean killing at least 11 people.

* At least 145 people have been killed across 42 strikes since September 2025.

* International watchdogs and lawyers maintain that these are extrajudicial killings and constitute a breach in international law and human rights.

* The UN has called for an end to the strikes.

“Eleven male narco-terrorists were killed during these actions, 4 on the first vessel in the Eastern Pacific, 4 on the second vessel in the Eastern Pacific, and 3 on the third vessel in the Caribbean,” SOUTHCOM said in a social media post on Tuesday. [13]

“Turns out President’s Day — under President Trump — is not a good day to run drugs,” Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said in a social media post showing a video of vessels being struck. [13]

The EU

United States Deepens Ties with Hungary; Belgian Defense Minister and Top European Diplomat Shares Views on Trans-Atlantic Relationship.

* Marco Rubio visited Hungary following the Munich Security Conference.

* Rubio praised the relationship between Trump and Orban, stating, “President Trump is deeply committed to your success, because your success is our success.”

* Hungary is holding elections on April 12th, with Orban seeking a fifth term.

* Hungary has refused to reduce or stop purchasing Russian Oil, despite the EU’s mandate to do so to support Ukraine.

* In an interview with Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken, PBS raised questions about the Transatlantic relationship.

* Francken highlighted the importance of decoupling from the United States from a defense perspective and noted that Greenland taught the EU a valuable lesson in pushing back against US pressure.

* He noted that Europeans felt the US was trying to appease Europe after its failed attempt to annex Greenland.

* When speaking to Kaja Kallas, Foreign Affairs High Representative, European Commission also confirmed that Germany is in discussions with France to cooperate on the nuclear deterrent, which are ongoing, and that French President Macron’s comments at the Munich Security Conference about de-risking from the United States, “We will de-risk vis-a-vis all the big powers in order to be much more independent,” are in line with European defense independence efforts.

Kaja Kallas- Foreign Affairs High Representative for the European Commission.

I mean, we are strengthening our defense. We are really trying to get over our dependencies, because dependencies make us vulnerable and weak.

We are diversifying our trade relationships. We are also diversifying our defense and security partnerships, so that we are not putting all the eggs in the same basket, because every tendency…

And, of course, in terms of security, we have been dependent also on the United States. And we are doing more to be more independent when it comes to security. [5]

Europe Steps Up Pressure on Big Tech

* Europe is taking steps to curtail big tech across the continent, but progress is slowed by fear of US retaliation.

* France, Spain, Greece, Denmark, Slovenia, and the Czech Republic have echoed Australia’s recent move to implement a social media ban to protect youth, and Germany and the UK are considering similar measures.

* Spain ordered prosecutors to investigate META, X, and TikTok for spreading AI-Generated child sexual images.

* Ireland has opened a probe into Grok over the processing of personal data and sexualized content.

* Under the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA), these companies can face fines of up to 6% of their global annual turnover for failing to remove illegal or dangerous content.

* The United States under Trump has threatened tariffs and sanctions if the EU imposes taxes or enforces the DSA on US companies.

Spain’s Consumer Rights Minister Pablo Bustinduy told Le Grand Continent newspaper on Tuesday that his country’s crackdown aimed to “break free from digital dependence on the United States”, adding that some platforms were being used to “destabilise European democracies from within”. [9]

French President Emmanuel Macron last year called U.S. resistance to European regulation a “geopolitical battle”. [9]

Trump’s administration warned in December that Europe faced “civilizational erasure” and urged the U.S. to foster “resistance to Europe’s current trajectory”. [9]

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said reading Jonathan Haidt’s “The Anxious Generation” - which argues that smartphones and social media are “rewiring” children’s brains - was “an eye‑opening experience”.

“We are running the biggest unchecked experiment with our children’s brains ever,” he said. [9]

For Macron, who has blamed social media for fuelling violence among young people, the turning point was the fatal stabbing of a school aide by a 14-year-old student in June. He said he would push for an EU-wide ban on adolescent use or, if necessary, act unilaterally in France. [9]

Takeaways from Munich Security Conference as Europe Moves Away from the United States

* French and German leaders have been discussing a nuclear deterrent for Europe, according to Merz at the Munich Security Conference.

* French President Emmanuel Macron has called for a new security dynamic for Europe, focusing on independence from American defense.

* Concerns about JD Vance’s hostile attitude toward Europe at last year’s conference are driving efforts to further decouple, despite reassurances from Marco Rubio at the conference.

* European Leaders are seeking to rapidly expand Europe’s economic power, in an unofficial summit last week, suggesting that Countries in the bloc that are hesitant to move forward could be left behind, as a smaller group of EU members number 9 statess will begin “enhanced cooperation.” if all 27 members of the bloc are not in agreement by June according to EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and French President Emmanuel Macron.

* During his speech, Kier Starmer hinted at deepening ties with the EU on economic and defense cooperation outside NATO.

“The Europeans must start this work with their own thinking and their own interests. So my proposal today is to launch a series of consultations on this important issue, which we have started to flesh out with our British and German colleagues, but in the broader European consultation with all the colleagues here, with a lot of capacities, a lot of strategic thinking,”

Macron said. [6]

The first movers could be the six leading economies who took part in talks last month hosted by Germany on a “Europe of two speeds” to break decision-making inertia and galvanise the EU economy. The other five countries were France, Italy, Spain, Poland and the Netherlands. [7]

Kier Starmer- UK Prime Minister

“The United Kingdom is ready. We see the imperative. We see the urgency. We want to work together to lead a generational shift in defence industrial cooperation. Now this includes looking again at closer economic alignment,”

“Deeper economic integration is in all of our interests. So we must look at where we could move closer to the single market in other sectors as well, where that would work for both sides.” [8]

Lithuanian Leaders Speak Out to Support Ukraine

* In an interview with the Kyiv Post, Lithuanian Minister of Finance Kristupas Vaitiekūnas reaffirmed his country’s commitment to supporting Ukraine.

* He stated that Lithuania is working closely with other European allies on the 20th sanction package against the Russian Federation.

* When asked about Ukrainians’ skepticism about US support, he was hesitant to criticize US behavior regarding Ukraine.

Kristupas Vaitiekūnas— Lithuanian Minister of Finance

The next package, like any other package, has to make a real impact on Russia and its aggression. It will be great to see the inclusion of its shadow fleet and oil companies. Maybe more cutting of trade chains. It would be good if these sanctions are in line with American sanctions. The main goal is to cripple the Russian war machine and the Russian economy. [4]

Thank you for reading.

A last note… Even if you can’t become a paid subscriber, you can help fan the flames of resistance. By restacking, commenting, liking, and sharing every post on other media platforms, you can accelerate the ignition of our movement.

I appreciate each one of you.

Burn Bright.

Shane

Make a One-Time Donation!

This work is entirely Firebrand Funded! Consider becoming a paid or founding subscriber, and scribe your name on the Wall of Fire

Click the Seal and Subscribe or Upgrade today!

The Firebrand Report is now streaming on Banner & Backbone Media

Sources and further reading

[1] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-16-2026

[2]

[3]http://theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/17/ukraine-war-briefing-kyivs-forces-made-fastest-battlefield-gains-since-2023-analysis-finds

[4] https://www.kyivpost.com/interviews/70225

[5]https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/rubio-bolsters-hungarys-far-right-leader-days-after-push-to-mend-u-s-ties-in-europe

[6]https://www.reuters.com/world/time-europe-become-geopolitical-power-frances-macron-says-2026-02-13/

[7]https://www.reuters.com/business/eu-weighs-two-track-approach-break-economic-reform-deadlock-2026-02-13/

[8]https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/uk-pm-starmer-urges-closer-collaboration-with-europe-defence-2026-02-13/

[9]https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/society-equity/europe-squares-up-big-tech-risking-ire-washington-2026-02-17/

[10] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/17/texas-early-voting-primaries

[11] https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/feb/15/california-billionaires-state-elections

[12]https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-supreme-court-adopts-new-technology-help-identify-conflicts-interest-2026-02-17/

[13]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/17/us-kills-11-people-in-three-strikes-on-alleged-drug-trafficking-vessels

Catch up on Geopolitics with yesterdays Africa Spotlight!

Thank you NeuroDivergent Hodgepodge, Cheech Previti, Nicole L, PaulM, Sandra, and many others for tuning into my live video with Banner & Backbone Media! Join me for my next live video in the app.

Firebrands and new readers alike,

Todays Coverage Focuses on Several Flash Points Across Africa.

The Continent is facing large-scale conflict, and well-funded paramilitary groups like the RSF and M23 continue to gain substantial ground and have a large footprint across the region. The United States is becoming increasingly embroiled in the Sahel as regional dynamics strain further amid rising tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea over the Tigray region.

You will notice this newsletter is substantially shorter and attached to the livestream. Based on feedback I was receiving, the older newsletter was too long. Whilst I love to write out all of my thoughts, most of you prefer the live content. I am shortening the newsletter; you will receive my analysis, but I will deliver it live.

This will make the content easier for viewers who prefer shorter reads to absorb.

With all that said, lets Get into the news!

For $6 a month, you can support transparent worldwide pro-democracy reporting. Help keep the Firebrand Project Burning throughout 2026.

A World on Fire: Breaking News Around the World African Spotlight

Nigeria

The US to Deploy 200 Troops to Nigeria

The US military is set to deploy 200 troops to Nigeria in the coming weeks as part of expanding counterterrorism cooperation between the two nations, following a Wall Street Journal report on February 10. The troops will assist in training the Nigerian military, with a Nigerian military spokesperson confirming that they will not engage in combat and that the assistance was requested by Nigeria. US Africa Command (AFRICOM) Commander General Dagvin Anderson indicated on February 3 that a small team of military officers had already been sent to support Nigerian counterterrorism efforts, particularly in intelligence gathering. He also met with Nigerian President Bola Tinubu and other security officials in Abuja on February 8. This deployment is part of a broader security cooperation that has been growing since November 2025, when the US and Nigeria agreed to enhance their collaboration and establish a working group to address violence against Christians. Increased US military activity in Nigeria has been noted since late November, including the resumption of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance operations and missile strikes against IS-linked militants. The deployment coincides with intensified Nigerian military operations in northwestern Nigeria following a deadly attack by Boko Haram militants that killed at least 170 civilians on February 3, prompting President Tinubu to launch Operation Savannah Shield. Boko Haram has continued its campaign in the region, sending threatening letters to local communities, which has led to fear and business closures among residents.

The Wall Street Journal reported on February 10 that the United States is sending 200 troops to various parts of Nigeria in the coming weeks to train the Nigerian military.A Nigerian military spokesperson told The Wall Street Journal that US troops would not be involved in combat and that Nigeria requested the assistance.

Atrocities Mount Following Brutal Attack on Western Nigerian Village

Armed assailants on motorbikes attacked three villages in Niger State, Nigeria, early on Saturday, killing at least 32 people and burning homes and shops. The raids targeted Tunga-Makeri, Konkoso, and Pissa, part of a surge in violence attributed to “bandits” in northern Nigeria, which has seen increased insecurity and abductions for ransom. Local officials reported that six people died in Tunga-Makeri, while at least 26 were killed in Konkoso, where attackers set a police station ablaze. The Nigerian government faces pressure to restore stability amid a complex security crisis involving both Islamic militants and armed gangs.

“The bandits stormed our town around 3am (local time), riding so many motorcycles while shooting sporadically, beheading six people and killing others. They set shops on fire and forced the whole village to flee,” Ibrahim said.

Another witness, who requested anonymity, said the attackers, riding more than 200 motorbikes, swept through the area targeting the villages.

Sudan and South Sudan

RSF Declares Parallel Government

The African Union Peace and Security Council has rejected the establishment of a parallel governing authority in Sudan by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and called on member states and international partners not to recognize it. This decision comes amid concerns over Sudan’s political fragmentation as the civil war between the RSF and Sudanese Armed Forces continues into its third year. The AU condemned violations against civilians, particularly in Darfur, and emphasized the need for accountability for those responsible. It also urged for an immediate ceasefire and a Sudanese-led political dialogue, while warning against external interference in the conflict.

The AU’s rejection of the RSF-linked administration represents a significant diplomatic setback for the paramilitary group’s broader political strategy, which has sought to translate battlefield territorial control, especially in Darfur, into formal governing authority.

South Sudanese Civil War Presents Opportunities for RSF

The South Sudanese military and the SPLM-IO opposition faction are engaged in large-scale battles, pushing the country towards a renewed civil war. The SPLM-IO launched an offensive in December 2025, capturing military bases and key towns, including Pajut. Tensions escalated with significant fighting in early 2025, particularly in Upper Nile state. The trial of SPLM-IO leader Reik Machar on serious charges is exacerbating hostilities, with multiple factions rallying against the federal government. The SSPDF has responded with counteroffensives, including airstrikes, while the SPLM-IO has mobilized additional fighters, indicating a potential for increased conflict.

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are leveraging their presence in South Sudan to strengthen ties with President Kiir’s administration while using the region for basing and supply purposes in the ongoing Sudanese civil war. This relationship allows the RSF and allied militias to launch attacks against opposition forces in South Sudan. Conversely, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) view the RSF’s activities as a threat, potentially leading them to support the SPLM-IO opposition. The SAF has accused South Sudan of facilitating RSF operations, and tensions between the two nations have increased as the RSF continues to exploit South Sudan for military gains amidst the conflict.

The SAF views the RSF’s presence in South Sudan as a threat on its eastern flank, straining relations with South Sudan and potentially causing the SAF to support the SPLM-IO. SAF officials have stated that RSF and SPLM-N al Hilu fighters have transited through South Sudan to launch attacks in southeastern Sudan, which the SAF now views as a second front in Sudan’s civil war, as part of a broader offensive since late January.

Humanitarian Crisis Across Sudan is Critical

A potential civil war in South Sudan would have severe humanitarian consequences, displacing nearly 300,000 people and putting 450,000 children at risk of acute malnutrition, as reported by the UN. The federal government has faced criticism for restricting humanitarian access, and the World Food Programme has halted operations due to militant attacks. The conflict is likely to involve ethnic targeting and indiscriminate violence, reminiscent of the previous civil war from 2013 to 2018, which resulted in up to 400,000 deaths, many from nonviolent causes like disease and starvation.

The UN and several aid organizations have criticized the federal government for restricting humanitarian access in Jonglei. The World Food Programme also halted operations in a county in Upper Nile state on February 4 after militants attacked one of its convoys.

Calls for Peace in South Sudan are Likely to Fall on Deaf Ears

President Cyril Ramaphosa has urged an end to violence and hostilities in South Sudan during the African Union’s Ad-hoc High Level Committee for South Sudan Summit in Ethiopia. He emphasized the importance of adhering to the Revitalised Agreement for peace, called for a ceasefire and the release of political detainees, and stressed the need for free and fair elections without further postponements. Ramaphosa highlighted the need for inclusive dialogue and coordination among regional leaders to support South Sudan’s transition to stability and democracy, while also respecting the country’s sovereignty.

“We also agree that the Government of South Sudan needs to agree, identify and implement minimum standards, which should be put in place for people of South Sudan to exercise their democratic right to vote and choose their leaders.

“And that in this process there should be credible and meaningful processes to prepare for the elections as articulated by the Under-Secretary General of the UN,” President Ramaphosa said.

Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Tigray

Ethiopia Increases Troop Presence Near Tigray

The Ethiopian federal government is escalating military preparations in the Tigray region, redeploying forces from the Amhara and Oromia regions in response to recent clashes with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The TPLF’s military, the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), launched offensives against the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and allied militias in late January, marking a resurgence of hostilities since the Tigray war ended in 2022. The TDF’s actions are attributed to the federal government’s failure to uphold the 2022 peace agreement, although TPLF leaders express a desire to avoid further conflict.

Anti-federal government outlet Amhara War Updates and an independent journalist have reported that the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) is redeploying a large number of forces from the Amhara and Oromia regions toward Tigray since February 7. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) also accused the ENDF of military preparations and operations in Tigray on February 9.

Eritrea Supports Tigrayian Separatist Movement

Eritrea is likely supporting the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and may be involved in a broader conflict in Tigray, having formed an alliance with the TPLF since early 2025 despite their historical rivalry. Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has pledged to protect the TPLF against Ethiopia, while Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has threatened to annex Eritrea’s port of Assab. Meanwhile, Amhara ethno-nationalist Fano militias are exploiting troop movements to Tigray, potentially coordinating with Eritrea and the TPLF, and have launched offensives in Amhara, capturing key towns and attacking Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) units.

Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki promised to protect the TPLF in the event of a conflict with Ethiopia in early 2025 during one of several high-level meetings between Eritrean and TPLF officials, according to French outlet Africa Intelligence.

A Wider War in the Making

A potential war in Tigray could escalate into a regional proxy conflict in the Red Sea, similar to the situation in Sudan. The UAE, which has a strategic partnership with Ethiopia, has provided military support during the Tigray war, while Egypt views Ethiopia as a threat and has strengthened ties with Eritrea, including a naval access deal at Eritrea’s port of Assab. Saudi Arabia is also enhancing its diplomatic relations with Eritrea to counter Emirati influence and has economic ties with Ethiopia. These external powers are backing opposing factions in Sudan: the UAE and Ethiopia support the Rapid Support Forces, while Egypt, Eritrea, and Saudi Arabia support the Sudanese Armed Forces.

“A war in Tigray would likely join Sudan as another arena in the emerging regional proxy war in the Red Sea. The UAE has a strategic partnership with Ethiopia and views it as a regional linchpin, investing billions in Ethiopia’s economy and supplying advanced military equipment. The UAE’s provision of drones and a supply air bridge during the Tigray war was essential in the Ethiopian federal government halting a TPLF advance on Addis Ababa”

Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, and M23

United States Private Contractors to Join Congolese Defense Forces

A US-linked private military company, Vectus Global, is reportedly supporting the Congolese army (FARDC) in an offensive against Rwandan-backed M23 militias in the South Kivu highlands. Erik Prince, a US private security contractor, has deployed contractors and drone operators to assist the FARDC in securing the town of Uvira following the withdrawal of M23 forces under US diplomatic pressure. The FARDC has intensified operations in the region, using attack drones and artillery support from Vectus Global, resulting in significant fighting around Minembwe. Reports indicate that the FARDC has regained control of several villages, but the conflict has resulted in substantial displacement of civilians.

Vectus Global’s involvement in the eastern DRC reflects a growing partnership with the Congolese government, initially aimed at combating tax evasion in the mining sector since October 2024. Although Erik Prince’s deployment is not officially sanctioned by the US government, it is perceived as part of a minerals-for-security deal and is intended to deter M23 troops from engaging in direct confrontation with American personnel.

Prince’s team and Israeli advisers are reportedly supporting FARDC special forces that are fighting M23-aligned rebel militia groups in the highlands as part of a new offensive since the FARDC took back Uvira.

M23 Refuses to Recognize Mediated Ceasefire

The AFC/M23 movement has rejected the ceasefire proposed by Angolan President João Lourenço, despite the Congolese government’s acceptance. AFC/M23 spokesperson Oscar Balinda stated that the group was not consulted and is focused on the ongoing Qatar-mediated peace talks, which have established a structured mechanism for a ceasefire. The Congolese government confirmed a ceasefire set to take effect on February 18, but AFC/M23 insists that the current military actions contradict this commitment.

AFC/M23 coordinator Corneille Nangaa criticized the Congolese government for pursuing a “diplomatic fragmentation” strategy that undermines coherent mediation efforts and delays a sustainable political settlement. He highlighted ongoing military offensives by the government, which contradict its public declarations of adherence to the ceasefire. Nangaa also expressed concerns about regional dynamics, particularly the role of Burundi, and urged the international community to remain vigilant to prevent further escalation and worsening humanitarian crises.

“The AFC/M23 denounces the strategy of diplomatic fragmentation pursued by the illegitimate and corrupt regime in Kinshasa, characterized by the multiplication of frameworks and parallel initiatives outside of a centralized and consensual process,” Nangaa stated.

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Sources and Further Reading

[1] Military Buildup In Northern Ethiopia; Us Linked Personnel In The Drc And Nigeria; South Sudan’s Slide To Civil War: Africa File, February 12, 2026 | Critical Threats

[2] AFC/M23 ‘does not recognise’ Luanda-initiated ceasefire - The New Times

[3] Call for ceasefire as South Sudan moves towards elections | SAnews

[4] Assailants kill at least 32 in north-west Nigerian villages, residents say | Nigeria | The Guardian

[5] https://www.africansecurityanalysis.com/reports/erik-prince-s-involvement-in-the-drc

[6] https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/02/2026-critical-minerals-ministerial

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Firebrands and new readers alike,

Today is one of those days when I feel like we are staring down the barrel of a loaded gun. The World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, was not merely a conference; it was a declaration of war.

Not in the literal sense, but in a geopolitical/economic sense– The resolute messaging from Mark Carney about the fracturing of the world order, and President Macron’s stark messaging about the use of hard-hitting sanctions packages to combat US coercion.

The Board of Peace is now front and center as the spectacle of a signing ceremony at the WEF sent a statement to the current global order, with many sharing concerns about the Board’s structure and existence in its current form as a violation of International law.

The Pressure cooker that is the Middle East, the Horn of Africa, and the Red Sea region is looking like it is going to heat up again. As fracturing between forces in Syria could escalate into further internal conflict, the new Axis of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Somalia appears to be preparing to take action against another UAE proxy force in Sudan, the RSF, as tensions between the UAE and its former regional allies disintegrate.

The United States court system appears to be fundamentally broken, as rulings allowing the use of Chemical weapons and forced entry without warrants were greenlit in the city of Minneapolis, a hot spot where the government has deployed over 3000 of its loyalist police force, ICE, and other DHS units.

There is a lot more to cover, so without any further preamble, here is the report.

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The Board of Peace and Signals of Genocide

The formal inauguration of the Board of Peace (BoP) on January 22, 2026, in Davos marks a watershed moment in the history of international relations. While ostensibly formed to manage the post-war reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, deep-dive intelligence indicates the Board is designed as a permanent, supranational entity intended to rival, and eventually displace, the United Nations in conflict management. It operates on a distinct “pay-to-play” model of permanent membership that fundamentally commodifies diplomatic influence.

The Architecture of Privatized Governance

The Board of Peace is not a diplomatic forum in the traditional sense; it is a corporate board applied to the machinery of statecraft. Chaired by President Donald Trump for life (as per interpretations of the draft charter circulated to select heads of state), its structure is designed to bypass the deadlock of the UN Security Council by replacing consensus-based voting with executive fiat. This structure allows for rapid decision-making but removes the checks and balances that have traditionally constrained global interventionism.

Founding Executive Board Composition: The personnel selected for the founding Executive Board confirm the strategic shift toward “Privatized Geopolitics,” where financial capability, real estate expertise, and personal loyalty replace diplomatic neutrality and civil service experience. The composition suggests a body designed not just for peacekeeping, but for asset management and urban redevelopment.

“The White House says a separate group called the “Gaza Executive Board” will “help support effective governance and the delivery of best-in-class services that advance peace, stability, and prosperity for the people of Gaza.”

That group is comprised of:

U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff

President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner

Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan

Ali Al-Thawadi, strategic affairs minister in Qatari prime minister’s office

Egyptian intelligence chief General Hassan Rashad

Former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair

Billionaire financier Marc Rowan

UAE Minister of State for International Cooperation Reem Al-Hashimy

Bulgarian diplomat Nickolay Mladenov

Israeli businessman Yakir Gabay

Sigrid Kaag, Dutch former deputy prime minister and ex-UN envoy

Senior advisers to the board who are tasked with leading day-to-day operations are listed as:

Aryeh Lightstone

Josh Gruenbaum

The White House shared a list of participants ahead of the charter signing ceremony on Thursday, saying that in addition to the U.S., the following nations were taking part:

Bahrain

Morocco

Argentina

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Belgium

Bulgaria

Egypt

Hungary

Indonesia

Jordan

Kazakhstan

Kosovo

Mongolia

Pakistan

Paraguay

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Uzbekistan

(cbsnews.com)

The “Charter” Anomalies: The BoP Charter, signed in a closed ceremony at Davos, contains provisions that fundamentally alter the concept of sovereign equality in international organizations.

* Tiered Membership: Membership is not automatic or equal. Nations invited to participate serve three-year renewable terms. However, “Permanent Membership”—granting voting rights on the executive committee—is available to states that contribute $1 billion in cash funds to the Board within the first year of the Charter’s entry into force.

* Sovereign Immunity: The Charter reportedly grants the Board and its subsidiary entities (including private military contractors) privileges and immunities equivalent to those of the UN, exempting them from local legal jurisdiction in zones of operation.

* Diplomatic Backlash: This blatant commodification of diplomatic power has drawn sharp rebukes from European capitals. Belgium’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs publicly refuted White House claims that Belgium had joined the board, citing deep reservations about the “pay-to-play” nature of the organization and its conflict with UN mandates.

The BoP’s self-declared global conflict resolution mandate lacks a clear basis in international law beyond the claim that United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2803 provides a legal basis for its operation in Gaza.

(arabcenterdc.org)

Countries can serve three-year terms, unless they contribute $1 billion each, securing permanent membership. The founding executive board includes US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, special envoy Steve Witkoff, former UK prime minister Tony Blair, and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, Reuters reported. Diplomats have cautioned the initiative could complicate the work of the United Nations.

(timesofindia.indiatimes.com)

The “Gaza Riviera” and the GREAT Trust

The operational mandate of the BoP in Gaza is guided by a specific, detailed blueprint known internally as the GREAT Trust (Gaza Reconstitution, Economic Acceleration and Transformation). This document, which leaked in late 2025 and has been the subject of intense scrutiny, envisions the total transformation of the Gaza Strip from a high-density refugee enclave into a “Riviera of the Middle East” characterized by luxury tourism, high-end real estate, and AI-driven smart cities.

The “Tabula Rasa” Doctrine: The “Gaza Riviera” concept is not merely a post-war reconstruction plan; it is a driver of current military tactics. Forensic analysis of Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operations in late 2025 and early 2026 reveals a high statistical correlation between military demolition zones and the proposed development sites identified in the GREAT Trust prospectus.

* Kinetic Land Clearance: The IDF’s deployment of remote-controlled M113 Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs) packed with explosives to flatten entire neighborhoods, such as Tel al-Hawa, aligns with the developer’s need to clear land for “greenfield” projects. These “robot bombs” pulverize foundational infrastructure, rendering the areas uninhabitable and necessitating total demolition—a prerequisite for the grid-level redesign envisioned by the Trust.

* Bureaucratic Erasure: Complementing the physical destruction is the systematic erasure of municipal records, property deeds, and land registries. This destruction of the “bureaucratic memory” of Gaza suggests an intent to reset property rights, facilitating the transfer of land title to the GREAT Trust for redevelopment without legal encumbrance from previous owners.

Most controversially, the 38-page plan suggests what it calls “temporary relocation of all of Gaza’s more than 2 million population” – a proposal that would amount to ethnic cleansing, potentially a genocidal act.

(theguardian.com)

The Somaliland Pivot: A New “Game of Bases”

The “Gaza Riviera” project faces a significant demographic obstacle: the presence of over 2 million Palestinians. Intelligence suggests that the solution to this “obstacle” is being engineered across the Red Sea in the Horn of Africa through the Israel-Somaliland Recognition Deal.

The “Base for Recognition” Framework: In late December 2025, Israel became the first UN member state to officially recognize the Republic of Somaliland as an independent nation. This diplomatic breakthrough is underpinned by a robust security pact that grants Israel rights to establish a military base and intelligence listening post on the Somaliland coast, overlooking the strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait.

* Strategic Rationale: For Israel, a base in Berbera or Zeila provides a critical flank against Iranian-backed Houthi forces in Yemen, allowing for the projection of naval and air power into the Red Sea from the south.

* Somaliland’s Calculation: For Somaliland, Israeli recognition breaks decades of diplomatic isolation and opens the door to U.S. and potentially European recognition, validating its claim to sovereignty separate from Mogadishu.

The Resettlement Protocol (The “Secret Provision”): Persistent intelligence reports—cited by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Defense Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi, though officially denied by Hargeisa—allege that the recognition deal includes a secret provision for the “Voluntary Resettlement” of Palestinians from Gaza to Somaliland.

* The Mechanism: Somaliland, as a newly recognized state desperate for development aid and international legitimacy, offers a destination outside the established UN refugee framework (UNRWA). This allows for population transfers that would be legally impossible or politically toxic if directed toward established nations like Egypt or Jordan.

* Strategic Utility: Analysts suggest that recognizing a new, non-UN-member country provides a “legal grey zone” where the Board of Peace can facilitate the relocation of Gaza’s population under the guise of humanitarian evacuation and economic migration, clearing the way for the GREAT Trust’s development plans.

“By recognizing Somaliland, Israel is not acting out of benevolence toward the Somali people. It is securing a forward operating base. Reports from the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv suggest that Somaliland could serve a role similar to Azerbaijan (a strategic ally on the border of an enemy).”

“Perhaps the most alarming motive is the one linked to the ethnic cleansing of Gaza. For months, Israeli intelligence and political figures have floated the concept of “voluntary migration”. It is just a make-up for the forced displacement of Palestinians.

Leaked reports and discussions in Israeli media have indicated that Somaliland’s desperation for international recognition makes it vulnerable to transactional diplomacy.”

(middleeastmonitor.com)

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The ACI and the Greenland Shock

The global economy is currently reacting to a “political supply shock” generated by the United States. The weaponization of tariffs for territorial acquisition (Greenland) has forced the European Union to initiate defensive economic measures that threaten to dismantle the $1.7 trillion transatlantic trade relationship. We are witnessing the end of the post-Cold War free trade consensus and the beginning of “Fortress Economics.”

The Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI): Europe’s “Nuclear Option”

Today, January 22, 2026, EU leaders are meeting in an emergency summit in Brussels to debate the activation of the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI). This mechanism, adopted in 2023 following China’s economic bullying of Lithuania, was designed as a deterrent against Beijing. Its potential deployment against Washington—the EU’s primary security guarantor—signifies a total breakdown of trust.

The “Trade Bazooka” Mechanics: If triggered, the ACI grants the European Commission sweeping executive powers to impose countermeasures without requiring unanimous member state approval. These measures include:

* Market Exclusion: Suspending access for US companies to EU public procurement tenders, effectively locking American firms out of billions in European infrastructure contracts.

* Investment Freezes: Freezing or strictly limiting American Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) within the EU, particularly in sensitive sectors.

* Intellectual Property Suspension: Suspending protections for US intellectual property rights within the bloc, a move that would be catastrophic for US pharmaceutical and tech sectors.

* Services Ban: Restricting trade in digital services, directly targeting US tech giants (Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft) which currently enjoy a massive surplus in the European market.

“Those sanctions could inflict untold billions of dollars in costs to US companies by restricting EU market access, barring them from EU public tenders, and potentially limiting foreign direct investment and curtailing the export and import of goods and services.”

(economictimes.indistimes.com)

The Internal Split:

* The Interventionists: Led by French President Emmanuel Macron, this bloc argues that failing to use the ACI now—in the face of explicit territorial blackmail over Greenland—would render the EU geopolitically irrelevant. They view the ACI as essential for establishing “Strategic Autonomy” and proving that Europe is a sovereign power.

* The Mercantilists: Led by Germany, this faction fears that ACI activation will trigger a “Section 232” counter-response from Trump (national security tariffs on autos), devastating the already fragile German manufacturing base. They advocate for a delay to allow for the renegotiation of the “Turnberry” trade deal.

Macron warned in Davos on Jan. 20 that additional tariffs by the U.S. could force the EU to use its anti-coercion mechanism for the first time.

“The crazy thing is that we could find ourselves in a situation where we use the anti-coercion mechanism for the very first time against the United States,” said Macron, arguing that allied countries should be focusing instead on bringing peace to Ukraine.

“Can you imagine it? It’s crazy. I regret it, but it is the consequence of unnecessary aggressiveness. Still, we must all remain calm.”

(ttnews.com)

Trade Committee Chair Bernd Lange told reporters in Strasbourg:

“I expect that the coordinators will decide to request to start the investigation procedure of the [Anti-Coercion Instrument]. Of course, between now and Monday there’s a lot of time and we will see what will happen,”

(politicopro.com)

The “Carney Doctrine” and Global Opposition

The World Economic Forum in Davos, usually a celebration of globalization, became the stage for a formal ideological rupture in the Western alliance. The “Davos Consensus”—the belief in inevitable globalization and liberal democracy—was effectively eulogized by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and buried by President Trump.

The “Carney Doctrine”: Middle Power Resistance

In a defining speech on January 20, 2026, Mark Carney articulated a new foreign policy framework for “Middle Powers” (Canada, UK, France, Japan, etc.) that directly challenges the US-centric order.

* The Rupture: Carney declared that the US-led order has suffered a “rupture, not a transition,” explicitly naming “American Hegemony” as a source of instability alongside Chinese coercion. He argued that the “rules-based order” was a fiction that no longer protects nations from their allies.

* Integration as Subordination: He argued that deep economic integration with a predatory superpower (the US) now equals subordination. He urged nations to diversify trade and security relationships to avoid becoming vassal states.

* Value-Based Realism: The doctrine calls for a coalition of middle powers to build “strategic autonomy” in energy, food, and critical minerals to immunize themselves against weaponized trade interdependence. This effectively proposes a “Shadow G7” that excludes the US.

The Technofascist Alignment

In opposition to the Carney Doctrine, the Trump administration has solidified an alliance with the “Techno-Libertarian” elite (Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, Marc Andreessen). This “Technofascist” bloc views the nation-state not as a social contract, but as a platform for efficiency and resource extraction.

* Davos Dynamics: Trump’s rhetoric at Davos—telling Carney “Canada lives because of the United States”—epitomized the shift to Transactional Sovereignty, where alliances are treated as protection rackets and sovereignty is a privilege granted by the hegemon.

* Policy Output: This alignment drives the push for Greenland (resource acquisition for tech hardware), the Board of Peace (privatized governance for profit), and the dismantling of regulatory states in favor of “efficiency” commissions (DOGE models).

Diplomatic News

* Canada-China Pivot: In a stunning reversal of recent geopolitical trends, Canada announced a “Strategic Partnership” with China during Carney’s visit to Beijing. The deal trades market access for Chinese EVs in Canada for the removal of tariffs on Canadian canola and agri-food. This move effectively hedges Canada against US trade aggression, breaking the “Five Eyes” economic containment of China.

* Mexico’s Alignment: Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum echoed Carney’s sentiments, signaling a potential North American “resistance bloc” within the USMCA framework to counter US unilateralism.

At its core, this deal drastically reduces Canada’s surtax on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs), creating a pathway for tens of thousands of inexpensive, state-subsidized vehicles to flood our auto market. As the largest private-sector union in Canada has warned, opening our market to Chinese EVs risks undermining our domestic auto industry, jeopardizing existing jobs, suppressing investment, and eroding the independent supply chain that sustains thousands of Canadian workers.

(newswire.ca)

Carney’s speech was “in tune with the current times,” said Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, during her morning news conference Wednesday, in response to a Davos-related question from a journalist.

“That was a very good speech by Carney, from Prime Minister Carney, I don’t know if you heard it.”

Federal Deputy Dolores Padierna Luna, with the governing National Regeneration Movement (Morena) party, told CBC News that it was extraordinary to see Simon, Canada’s first Indigenous governor-general, and Sheinbaum, Mexico’s first woman president, sitting down together.

“I believe that Canada and Mexico need to speak more, always more deeply, and provide mutual support,” said Padierna, who is the vice-coordinator for the Morena caucus in the Chamber of Deputies.

(cba.ca)

The World on Fire: Breaking News Around the World

Sudan: The War of Annhilation: Saudi Arabia and Egypt Increase Pressure on UAE Proxies in Sudan

Egypt and Saudi Arabia have increased pressure on Khalifa Haftar, the eastern Libyan commander, due to his role in facilitating Emirati military support to Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This collaborative effort aims to block arms, fuel, and fighters from reaching the RSF, curb UAE influence, and prevent further destabilization in the sensitive Egypt–Libya–Sudan border area. Following a meeting in Cairo between Saddam Haftar, Khalifa’s son, and Egyptian military officials, Egypt delivered a stern warning to Khalifa Haftar regarding the consequences of continued support for the RSF, which has been linked to significant violence and territorial gains in Sudan. The Egyptian military has reportedly gathered intelligence on arms shipments and mercenary movements, indicating a coordinated effort to undermine the RSF’s advancements.

In a broader context, the tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE have surfaced, with both countries expressing concerns over the RSF’s rise and its implications for regional stability. Cairo’s recent military actions, including an airstrike on a convoy supporting the RSF, underscore its commitment to countering this influence. The situation reflects a growing alignment between Egypt and Saudi Arabia, driven by shared interests in limiting Emirati dominance in the region, despite underlying differences in their political leadership aspirations.

A senior Egyptian military source emphasized the seriousness of the situation, stating, “The message was clear: continued support for the RSF would force Egypt to reconsider its entire relationship with eastern Libya.”

(middleeasteye.net)

New Zealand Faces Climate Devestating Landslides Tied to Flooding

A series of devastating weather-related incidents across New Zealand, particularly focusing on landslides and flooding that have affected multiple regions, including Mt Maunganui, Auckland, Bay of Plenty, Coromandel, Northland, and the East Coast. A significant landslide at a campsite in Mt Maunganui has left several people unaccounted for, including children, prompting ongoing search and rescue operations. In Auckland, a man was swept away by floodwaters, and search efforts are hampered by high water levels. Power outages have affected over 5,600 customers, with restoration efforts complicated by road access issues, particularly in the Coromandel Peninsula.

Emergency services are actively responding to the crisis, with reports of injuries and evacuations due to landslides and flooding in various locations. The situation remains precarious, as authorities continue to assess damage and ensure public safety.

Emergency Minister Mark Mitchell, stated:

“It’s been a very big event for us as a country, really hitting almost our entire eastern seaboard of the North Island.” This underscores the widespread impact of the severe weather and the challenges faced by emergency responders in managing the crisis.

(rnz.co.nz)

Trump’s Supposed Total Access Deal to Greenland Confuses NATO Allies

U.S. President Donald Trump’s ambitions for Greenland, particularly his assertion of having secured total and permanent U.S. access to the territory through a NATO framework deal. This announcement has raised significant concerns about Greenland’s sovereignty, which is a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark. Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen emphasized that sovereignty is a “red line” and that any discussions about the island must respect international law and territorial integrity. Despite Trump’s claims of a deal to enhance Arctic security amid threats from Russia and China, Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen confirmed that no negotiations over Greenland’s sovereignty had taken place, indicating ongoing tensions within NATO and the potential for a trade war with Europe.

The situation has left many stakeholders, including EU leaders and Greenlanders, confused and wary about the future of transatlantic relations. While Trump backed off from previous aggressive stances, the uncertainty surrounding the details of the agreement and the implications for Arctic security remains. The article highlights the precarious balance of power and trust among the U.S., Denmark, and Greenland, as well as the broader implications for NATO’s role in the Arctic.

Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen’s statement to the press:

“I don’t know what there is in the agreement, or the deal, about my country. “We are ready to discuss a lot of things, and we are ready to negotiate a better partnership and so on. But sovereignty is a red line,” he added, when asked about reports that Trump was seeking control of areas around U.S. military bases in Greenland as part of a wider deal.”

(Reuters.com)

French Navy Seizes Russian Shadow Fleet Tanker in the Mediterranean

The French Navy recently intercepted an oil tanker named “Grinch” in the Mediterranean, which is suspected of being part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” that aims to evade international sanctions. French President Emmanuel Macron confirmed that the tanker was coming from Russia and was subject to sanctions, adding that the operation was conducted in collaboration with allies and in compliance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. The interception highlights ongoing efforts by the European Union to enforce sanctions against Russia following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, as Moscow continues to sell oil to countries like China and India, often at discounted rates.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed gratitude to Macron for the interception, emphasizing its importance in preventing Russian oil from funding military operations. Meanwhile, the Russian embassy in France stated it had not been informed about the interception and was trying to ascertain if any Russian citizens were on board the vessel. This incident underscores the complexities of enforcing sanctions against Russia, particularly with the existence of a shadow fleet that operates under false flags to transport oil, as detailed in a report indicating that over 100 Russian vessels engaged in such practices in recent months.

“This is exactly the kind of resolve needed to ensure that Russian oil no longer finances Russia’s war,” Zelenskyy wrote on social media.”

“The operation was conducted on the high seas in the Mediterranean, with the support of several of our allies. It was carried out in strict compliance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea,” Macron said.

(aljazeera.com)

Israel Awards More Gun Permits to Settlers as 2025 Reports of Violence Against Palestinians Surge

In 2025, the situation in the occupied West Bank has deteriorated significantly, marked by a sharp increase in violence against Palestinians by Israeli settlers. The United Nations reported over 1,800 settler attacks, averaging five per day, which resulted in casualties and property damage across approximately 280 Palestinian communities. This surge in violence coincides with the Israeli government’s policies under National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has authorized the issuance of gun licenses to residents of 18 additional illegal settlements. This move is part of a broader strategy to expand illegal settlements and has led to the arming of settlers with military-grade weapons, further emboldening them and contributing to a climate of impunity.

The Israeli government’s actions have drawn international condemnation, particularly following a 2024 ruling by the International Court of Justice declaring Israel’s presence in the occupied territories unlawful. The escalation of violence has had dire consequences, with 240 Palestinians, including 55 children, reported killed by Israeli forces or settlers in 2025. Ben-Gvir justified the increase in gun permits by claiming it has contributed to thwarting attacks and enhancing security, stating, “An unprecedented number” of over 240,000 Israelis have received gun permits since the policy expansion. This alarming trend raises serious concerns about the future of peace and stability in the region, as the expansion of settlements and the violence against Palestinians continue to undermine prospects for a two-state solution.

“According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, more than 1,800 settler attacks against Palestinians – about five per day – were documented in 2025, resulting in casualties or property damage in about 280 communities across the West Bank, and besting the previous year’s record of settler attacks by more than 350.”

(Aljazeera.com)

US Courts Allow For Use of Chemical Weapons and Forced Entry To Homes Without Warrants In Minneapolis

A U.S. appeals court has lifted a preliminary injunction that previously restricted federal immigration agents from arresting or using tear gas against peaceful protesters in Minneapolis, where significant deportation operations have been underway. This decision follows a lawsuit filed by activists against the Trump administration, claiming violations of constitutional rights during immigration enforcement actions. The appeals court’s ruling allows the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to proceed with its operations, which have included aggressive tactics and incidents of violence, such as the fatal shooting of a U.S. citizen by an ICE agent. The situation has escalated tensions between federal authorities and local leaders, with accusations of unlawful actions, including forced home entries without warrants.

In addition to the appeals court decision, a recently surfaced DHS memo indicates that immigration agents have been granted new authority to enter homes without judicial warrants to conduct arrests, marking a significant policy shift. This has raised concerns about potential violations of the Fourth Amendment rights against unreasonable searches and seizures. Local leaders, including Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, have condemned the federal operations as reckless and politically motivated, arguing that they endanger public safety and violate residents’ rights. As tensions continue to rise, the Trump administration has even initiated investigations into local officials opposing these actions.

“The state government asked Menendez to restrain the surge in immigration enforcement, telling the court the administration was violating residents’ rights, including forced entries into homes without a warrant and arresting people, including U.S. citizens, without probable cause.”

“On Wednesday, the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals sided with DHS, blocking the injunction while it weighs whether to issue a longer-term stay or restore Menendez’s restrictions on Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents and the Border Patrol.”

(Reuters.com)

Read Firebrand Analyst: Catherine Bowers Article on ICE to learn more about what is going on across America.

Finnish President Suggests Finland and European Allies Will Be Ready to Bolster Arctic Defense in Greenland

In a recent statement at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Finnish President Alexander Stubb emphasized the urgent need for a comprehensive plan to enhance Arctic security ahead of an upcoming NATO summit in July. This call for action follows a framework deal announced by the United States to de-escalate tensions surrounding Greenland’s future, which has become a contentious issue among NATO allies. President Trump has claimed a permanent U.S. agreement for access to Greenland, advocating that only the U.S. can ensure the region’s security against perceived threats from Russia and China. Stubb highlighted the importance of a collaborative approach among NATO’s Scandinavian members—Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland—alongside the U.S. and Canada to strengthen Arctic defense.

Stubb expressed confidence in the unity of European leaders regarding Greenland, particularly emphasizing the significance of Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s perspective. He acknowledged the strain that Trump’s tariff threats against European nations opposing his Greenland ambitions could place on NATO, yet he remains optimistic about the alliance’s future.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb stated:

“I think it’s completely justified for President Trump to ask Europeans to do more about their defence, and also to pay more for the alliance and have more capability,” underlining the necessity for increased European commitment to collective security in the face of emerging geopolitical challenges.

(reuters.com)

Potential For Fracturing of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Suggests Trouble as Syria Struggles to Stabilize as 4 Day Deadline Looms

The situation involving the Syrian Democratic Force (SDF) is characterized by a potential fracture in its leadership as SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi faces pressure to agree to Syrian President Ahmed al Shara’s terms for integration into the Syrian state. This integration could lead to serious conflict between government forces and Kurdish fighters, especially as hardline elements within the SDF resist capitulation. Abdi has been granted four days to consult with SDF leaders, but there are concerns that hardline factions, influenced by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), may incite further violence even if a formal agreement is reached. The PKK has been encouraging resistance against the Syrian government, complicating Abdi’s efforts to secure a peaceful resolution and avoid bloodshed.

The chaotic conditions on the ground, exacerbated by the Syrian government’s offensive, have created a volatile environment where small-scale incidents could escalate into significant conflict. Both Abdi and Shara must maintain strict control over their respective forces to prevent hardliners from reigniting hostilities. The article warns that failure to reach a peaceful agreement could result in the Syrian army advancing into Kurdish areas, potentially leading to communal violence and complicating the situation for U.S. forces in the region.

“The most dangerous scenario would involve either Shara or Abdi deciding that neither party can move forward with a peaceful agreement to integrate the SDF.” This highlights the precarious balance both leaders must navigate to avoid further destabilization in northern Syria.

(understandingwar.org)

My Thoughts…

The Board of Peace is finally moving forward. The concept itself seemed ridiculous, and by any measure, it is. However, this board is no longer theoretical, and its formation at this moment in time signals a chilling new reality. One that I fear the world will not be able to stop. The GREAT plan, or Kushner and allies’ plan for the ethnic cleansing of 2 million people, is ready for its next phase.

I covered the strategic bombing of large buildings by Israel in late 2025 using M113 troop carrying vehicles as a way to demolish entire blocks.

I talked about how, if you look at those buildings being destroyed and overlay them against a map of the “Gaza Riviera” plans, the destruction lines up with where some of the largest buildings would be. This board of peace is stacked with long-time endorsers of this plan, notably Tony Blair, the disgraced British Prime Minister, Middle Eastern real estate tycoons, and more.

This cementation of the (BoP) happens at a time when Israel’s recognition of Somaliland is under scrutiny due to indications that Israel is negotiating a deal with the Somaliland government for the relocation of Palestinian peoples.

Furthermore, the board of peace is shaping up to be more than a privatized plan to orchestrate ethnic cleansing and funnel billions of dollars in private investment to recreate a cultural hub into a Billionaire playground. Concerns about its direct conflict with UN policy and international law suggest it is also a threat to the current global order.

With countries able to join, this could be a model for a transactional UN. The idea that the Board of Peace could expand to other conflicts suggests that there are already plans for further intervention worldwide.

This poses a massive threat to the current global order, and many countries under the wealthy billionaire sphere of influence have already joined.

The EU is holding out for now, and should.

Speaking of the EU, the meeting today is essential. Macron’s urging to use the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), a set of Sanctions that would cripple the US tech industry in response to threats over Greenland, is meeting resistance.

Realistically, Macron is right; larger economies are fearful that decoupling from the US economy would have adverse effects on their own.

Whilst I am not a leader of one of these countries, as an observer Europes inability to draw a hard line has to stop now. They are out of rope. The pausing of the 2025 negotiated trade deal between Trump’s Corporate Fascist America is the right step.

However, Corporate Fascism is spreading, that is what the Board of Peace represents to me, countries who priortize money and investment over the stability of their democracies run the risk of losing everything. It is unlikely that the EU will enact this ACI right away; they can open an inquiry that they can use as a threat towards the US.

This would be the smartest tactical move because it gives them another step to escalate if the United States takes further dramatic action.

The use of this ACI would signal that Carney’s firebrand speech about the middle powers rising up did not fall on deaf ears.

However, outside of Europe, as I had hoped, Sheinbaum in Mexico praised Carney, and signals within the government suggest that Mexico and Canada intend to work more closely, in which case the US would face economic encirclement.

The US economy has become increasingly service-based, and its dependency on imports is very high. A deal that fundamentally changes NAFTA and has Mexico and Canada coordinate trade without the United States would heavily undermine US influence on the continent. This alignment would be a huge boon to these middle powers as they work to contain US coercion and aggression.

The Deal between China and Canada still looms; extreme weather is occurring worldwide at an unprecedented rate. Flash flooding from heavy rains, Atmospheric rivers are flowing, transporting untold amounts of water across the United States as global warming redistributes water towards the poles. The United States is facing a record-breaking snowstorm that will move through the Midwest and into the Northeast. More and more unpredictable storms year over year. I cannot shake the feeling that something is happening. I fear for many Americans as these disasters become more frequent and severe.

With FEMA and federal support for reconstruction and rescue systems in the US effectively dismantled, the US is left with a system that is effectively dismantled. Warning times are shortened due to funding cuts to NOAA and the National Weather Service.

All told, I am seeing escalation on every front… this year is off to a fast start. It is not showing any signs of slowing down.

Thank you for reading.

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As another day dawns in the world, there is no shortage of things to cover. Yesterday we saw some of the most historic speeches made in our history. The distinction between Carney’s fiery speech about the Rupture of the global world order and Trump’s incoherent and racist ramblings on the world stage perfectly highlights the dichotomy of the global world order in 2026.

Over the last several weeks, I swore up and down that the United States was planning on striking Iran; they did not… I still believe they were planning, but understanding why they did not act is important. We will look again at the revolution in Iran and whether a conclusion is in sight.

There are things that I miss and conflicts that I become aware of every day. However, the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health broke some of the most harrowing news in human history.

Human action has damaged water availability beyond reversible levels; upwards of 6 billion people will be affected, and the declaration of a ‘water bankruptcy’ sets the stage for Water Wars and destabilization in vulnerable countries worldwide. It highlights that ensuring that we have a stable environment is not a later issue; it is a now issue.

Hopefully, this will realign efforts at the international, national, and local levels so that communities can continue to survive in a rapidly changing world.

I have updates on several breaking stories from around the world that I believe deserve your attention, so let’s get into the news.

An Uncertain Future for Iran

The Islamic Republic of Iran has entered a terminal phase of “Hydrological Suicide,” where the cumulative effects of environmental mismanagement have intersected with a crisis of legitimacy to produce a pre-revolutionary condition. The regime’s response has shifted from policing to “Total War” against its own population, characterized by the militarization of resource access and the deployment of to mask the extent of its loss of control. The situation on the ground has evolved from sporadic unrest into a coordinated, multi-front insurgency that threatens the territorial integrity of the Iranian state.

Insurgency and ‘The World On Fire’

The security situation in Iran has deteriorated beyond civil unrest into a fragmented insurgency. As of January 21, 2026, the regime is engaged in a multi-front conflict against both unarmed protestors in the urban core and armed separatist groups in the periphery. The escalation dynamics are no longer linear; they are exponential, driven by a cycle of repression and retaliation that has breached the regime’s traditional containment thresholds.

Increasing Tensions with Washington and Israel

The rhetorical escalation between Tehran and Washington has reached a flashpoint, creating a psychological battlespace where the threat of total annihilation is being normalized. On January 20-21, 2026, Iranian military officials, specifically Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi, spokesperson for the General Staff of the Armed Forces, issued a directive warning that any U.S. or Israeli attempt to decapitate the regime leadership would result in a response that would “set their world on fire”. This specific phrasing—”set the world on fire”—is not merely bombast; it reflects a doctrine of “horizontal escalation,” implying that Iran will activate its proxy network (the “Axis of Resistance”) to target global energy chokepoints and U.S. assets regionally if the regime’s survival is threatened. Shekarchi emphasized that this was “not a mere slogan,” a direct signal to Western intelligence agencies that the operational plans for such a strike—likely targeting the Strait of Hormuz or Saudi oil infrastructure—are already in place.

In a symmetrical escalation, President Donald Trump reiterated his “wipe off the face of the earth” threat, explicitly stating in a News Nation interview that if Iran attempts to assassinate him or destabilize the region further, the U.S. response would be total obliteration. Trump claimed to have “very firm instructions” regarding this retaliation, suggesting a pre-authorized nuclear or massive conventional strike package. This exchange creates a “commitment trap,” where both sides have staked their credibility on maximalist responses, reducing the diplomatic off-ramps available to de-escalate a potential kinetic encounter. The rhetoric has moved from deterrence to compellence, with each side daring the other to cross a fatal red line.

“We do not attach significant importance to Trump’s clamour,” Gen Shekarchi was quoted by state media as saying on Tuesday.

However, he added that “Trump knows that if a hand of aggression is extended towards our leader, we will not only sever that hand − and this is not a mere slogan – but we will set their world on fire and leave them no safe haven in the region”.

(thenationalnews.com)

“I have very firm instructions. Anything happens, they’re going to wipe them off the face of this earth,” Trump said in a News Nation interview that aired Tuesday, in response to a question on Iran’s threats on the 79-year-old’s life.

(bssnews.net)

The Mobarizoun Popular Front (MPF) Insurgency

A critical development is the operational maturity of the Mobarizoun Popular Front (MPF). This coalition, centering on Baloch nationalist and Salafi-jihadi elements (including Jaish al-Adl), has shifted from sporadic attacks to sustained urban warfare in Sistan and Baluchistan. The emergence of the MPF represents the “Syrianization” of the Iranian conflict, where peripheral grievances metastasize into armed rebellion supported by cross-border networks.

* Recruitment and Capabilities: Intelligence suggests that the MPF is leveraging the porous border with Pakistan to recruit fighters and smuggle advanced weaponry, potentially including MANPADS and anti-tank guided missiles. The group’s stated refusal to intervene directly in civilian protests—to avoid giving the regime a pretext for massacre—demonstrates a sophisticated understanding of information warfare and political strategy.

The newly-established Mobarizoun Popular Front (MPF), which is a coalition of Baloch organizations, declared support for the ongoing protests in Iran on January 1. The MPF stated that it will not directly intervene in the protests “so as not to provide an excuse for abuse, distortion of facts, and organized repression” by the regime. The MPF added that it is monitoring the regime’s response to the protests to defend Iranians and noted that it will respond to any instances of regime violence, however.

(understandingwar.org)

Casualty Metrics and the “Body Snatching” Phenomenon

The divergence between official state narratives and verified intelligence regarding casualties highlights the “Epistemic Siege” the regime has placed on the country. The battle for the “body count” is a battle for the historical record and the legitimacy of the uprising.

* Verified Casualties: Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), a US-based monitor, reports confirm at least 4,519 deaths as of January 21, 2026. Of these, 4,251 are identified as protestors, while 197 are security personnel, indicating the intensity of the clashes. The demographic breakdown includes minors and women, confirming the indiscriminate nature of the state’s violence.

* Intelligence Estimates: Credible reports from opposition networks and intelligence assessments suggest the true toll may exceed 20,000, with thousands of bodies unaccounted for. This discrepancy suggests a systematic campaign of extrajudicial killing and secret disposal, likely in mass graves or remote locations.

* Tactical Shifts - “Body Snatching”: The regime has reportedly engaged in “body snatching”—seizing corpses from hospitals and morgues to prevent public funerals that could serve as rallying points for further unrest. Security forces are reportedly demanding payment from families for the return of bodies, a macabre tactic designed to both punish dissenters and finance local security operations. This indicates a fear of the “martyrdom cycle” that fueled the 1979 revolution, where every funeral birthed a new protest.

* Arrests and Judicial Terror: Over 26,314 individuals have been detained since December 28, overwhelming the judicial and penitentiary systems. The sheer volume of detainees necessitates the “fast-track” executions and mass trials observed in recent weeks. The regime is using the judiciary not as a mechanism of justice but as an assembly line for liquidation, attempting to “execute its way” out of the crisis.

While the Iranian government blames the deaths of civilians and security forces on “armed terrorists”, rights groups have documented a deadly clampdown on demonstrations by the regime, with published videos and field reports confirming “direct gunfire against protesters”

(thenationalnews.com)

The Norway-based Iran Human Rights NGO has said verification of deaths in the crackdown remains severely hampered due to the communication restrictions, but noted on Monday that available information “indicates that the number of protesters killed may exceed even the highest media estimates”, which reach 20,000.

(bssnews.net)

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Global Water Bankruptcy: The Biological Insolvency

The release of the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH) report on January 20, 2026, fundamentally alters the global risk assessment landscape. The declaration of “Global Water Bankruptcy” is a semantic shift with profound policy implications: it moves the world from a paradigm of “crisis management” (temporary deviation) to “bankruptcy management” (permanent restructuring of assets). This report, authored by Kaveh Madani, serves as the scientific underpinning for the geopolitical chaos we are witnessing.

The Mechanics of Bankruptcy

The report argues that the world has crossed a threshold of “insolvency and irreversibility” regarding its freshwater resources. The concept of bankruptcy is applied literally, not metaphorically:

* Insolvency: Withdrawals of freshwater now systematically exceed the renewable recharge rate across major basins. Humanity is burning through the capital (ancient aquifers, glacial stores) rather than living off the interest (rainfall and seasonal melt). The hydrological balance sheet is in the red, and there is no “central bank” of water to print a bailout.

* Irreversibility: Key hydrological structures—wetlands, glaciers, and aquifer porosity—have been damaged to a point where restoration to historical baselines is biophysically impossible. The report notes the loss of 410 million hectares of wetlands (an area the size of the European Union) over the last 50 years. Once an aquifer collapses due to over-extraction (subsidence), its storage capacity is lost forever. This is a permanent destruction of natural infrastructure.

The “Hot Zones” of Collapse

The report identifies specific regions where “Day Zero” is no longer a theoretical risk but an imminent operational reality. These zones are the primary drivers of the “Resource Siege” mentality adopted by states like Iran and the US.

* Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Identified as the epicenter of bankruptcy. High water stress intersects with low agricultural productivity and energy-intensive desalination dependency. Iran’s current unrest is the direct manifestation of this bankruptcy; the protests are not merely political but biological—a revolt against thirst. The regime’s inability to provide water breaks the most fundamental social contract.

* South Asia (Indus/Ganges Basin): Groundwater-dependent agriculture has caused chronic water table declines and land subsidence. This directly impacts the India-Pakistan dynamic, where the weaponization of the Indus Water Treaty (noted in previous reports as being in “abeyance”) threatens to trigger famine in Pakistan. The “water bankruptcy” of the Indus basin makes the conflict zero-sum; there is physically not enough water for both nations’ agricultural ambitions.

* US Southwest (Colorado River Basin): The report explicitly names the Colorado River reservoirs as “symbols of over-promised water”. This domestic bankruptcy explains the aggressive US posture on securing external resources (e.g., Canadian water/energy integration) and the internal migration pressures. The “drying out” of the American West serves as a driver for the “Golden Dome” protectionism—securing the homeland’s remaining viable zones.

Economic and Security Ripple Effects

The declaration of bankruptcy will trigger a repricing of global risk and assets.

* Food Security: With 170 million hectares of irrigated cropland under high stress (equivalent to France, Spain, Germany, and Italy combined), the “bankruptcy” threatens the global food supply chain. We can anticipate a spike in food commodity futures (wheat, soy) in Q2 2026 as markets price in this permanent scarcity. Countries dependent on food imports (Egypt, China) will face severe instability.

* Supply Chain Disruption: The report notes that 30% of global glacier mass has been lost since 1970. These glaciers are the “water towers” for major river systems that support manufacturing hubs in Asia. Their decline poses a long-term threat to the semiconductor and heavy industry supply chains dependent on water-intensive cooling and processing. The “Semiconductor War” in Thailand/Cambodia is exacerbated by this resource scarcity.

* Financialization of Water: The recognition of bankruptcy will accelerate the creation of “Water Futures” markets. Just as distressed debt is traded, “distressed water rights” will become a prime asset class. This risks creating “Hydro-Apartheid,” where wealthy corporations and nations can buy solvency while the poor face thirst.

You can read the full UN Report → Here

The Davos Rupture: The End of the “Rules-Based” Order

The World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland (January 2026), will be recorded by historians as the venue where the “Western Alliance” formally fractured. The juxtaposition of speeches by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump laid bare two incompatible visions for the future of global order. It was not a dialogue; it was a divorce proceeding.

The “Tale of Two Speeches”

The rhetoric employed by both leaders demonstrates a complete divergence in strategic logic, signaling the end of the unified “West.”

Mark Carney: The “Middle Power” Revolt Carney’s address was a eulogy for the post-WWII order and a rallying cry for a new “Middle Power” architecture.

* The “Rupture”: Carney explicitly stated that the “rules-based order is fading” and that the world is experiencing a “rupture” defined by great power predation. He rejected the notion that middle powers must be passive victims of this shift (”the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must”), calling instead for active resistance.

* Rejection of Coercion: He warned against “using economic integration as weapons” and “tariffs as leverage,” a direct critique of the Trump administration’s trade policies. His invocation of Václav Havel’s “Power of the Powerless” and the parable of the greengrocer was a sophisticated call for a “coalition of the willing” to resist hegemonic bullying—implicitly identifying the US as the bully.

* The “Fortress” Warning: Carney argued that a “world of fortresses” (i.e., American isolationism) would be “poorer, more fragile, and less sustainable”. This frames the US strategy not as strength, but as a path to collective ruin.

* The “Beijing Protocol” Context: This speech provides the ideological cover for Canada’s pivot to China. By framing the US as a “hegemon” that monetizes relationships, Carney justifies the “Beijing Protocol” (lowering tariffs on Chinese EVs and canola) as a necessary survival mechanism for middle powers to “hedge against uncertainty”.

“Call it what it is: a system of intensifying great power rivalry where the most powerful pursue their interests using economic integration as coercion.”

(theguardian.com)

Donald Trump: The “Golden Dome” Unilateralism, President Trump’s speech was a reassertion of “Kinetic Mercantilism” and a dismissal of traditional alliance obligations.

* Transactional Sovereignty: Trump declared, “Canada lives because of the United States: remember that, Mark,” explicitly framing Canadian sovereignty as a byproduct of American protection. This creates a vassal-state dynamic that validates Carney’s pivot. It strips the alliance of shared values, reducing it to a protection racket.

* The Greenland Ultimatum: Trump used the Davos platform to reiterate his demand for Greenland, linking it to the “Golden Dome” missile defense project. He framed the acquisition not as territorial expansion but as a defensive necessity for North America. This “security” justification allows the US to categorize European opposition as a threat to American safety, paving the way for tariffs on EU allies who refuse to capitulate.

* Gratitude vs. Tribute: Trump’s complaint that allies are “not grateful” for “freebies” signals a shift to a tribute-based alliance system, where security guarantees are contingent on economic concessions. He openly contrasted his “very good relationship” with Putin and Xi against his friction with Western leaders, further destabilizing NATO confidence.

He said he was “seeking immediate negotiations to once again discuss the acquisition of Greenland by the United States”.

“I don’t want to use force. I won’t use force. All the US is asking for is a place called Greenland,” he said. “You can say yes, and we will be very appreciative. Or you can say no and we will remember.”

(theguardian.com)

The Bifurcation

The Davos clash confirms that the “Atlantic” bridge is broken. Europe and Canada are no longer viewing the US as the guarantor of stability but as a primary source of volatility. This will accelerate the formation of “ad hoc” alliances—such as the Canada-China trade pact or European “strategic autonomy” initiatives—that exclude the United States. The “West” as a unified geopolitical entity is effectively defunct. We are entering a “Post-Atlantic” era where the US stands alone as a fortress, and its former allies seek solvency in the East.

A World on Fire: Breaking News Around the World

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Instability Over Defense Spending in Taiwan Could Worsen Defense Readiness

Taiwan’s opposition parties, the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), have voted for the sixth time to block the Special Budget for Asymmetric War, which is crucial for Taiwan’s defense strategy against potential threats from the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The failure to pass this budget could hinder Taiwan’s ability to acquire necessary military systems and negatively impact international perceptions of its commitment to national defense. KMT officials argue that the inclusion of military pay increases in the budget is problematic and question the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) treatment of the military. Meanwhile, the TPP plans to propose its own version of the defense budget in an attempt to break the legislative deadlock.

The ongoing legislative impasse is exacerbating Taiwan’s military procurement challenges, particularly as there is a significant backlog of $32 billion in arms purchases from the United States. Delaying the special budget could worsen this backlog and impede Taiwan’s efforts to adapt its military capabilities to modern warfare.

TPP Chairman Huang Kuo-chang stated:

“the existing special budget proposal allocated a ‘relatively high proportion’ of its funds to non-US arms purchases but did not specify where the funds were going instead.”

(understandingwar.org)

Ukraine Braces for New Russian Offensive and Raises Concerns about Chornobyl Powerplant

The latest updates from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine indicate significant developments regarding energy infrastructure and military operations. Reports highlight that the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant has been left without an external power supply, raising concerns about safety and operational capabilities. Additionally, emergency power outages have been implemented across several regions in Ukraine due to the aftermath of Russian shelling, which has targeted energy facilities. This situation underscores the ongoing challenges Ukraine faces in maintaining its energy security amid the conflict.

Military assessments reveal that Russia is preparing for a new wave of attacks, with indications of a mass strike anticipated in the coming weeks. Ukrainian officials have been vocal about the need for an overhaul of air defenses to counter these threats effectively.

Russian strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure cut power to electrical substations powering the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant on January 20, consistent with a recent warning from Ukrainian military intelligence.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated the Kremlin’s commitment to its original war demands against the background of expected peace talks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on January 20, and falsely accused Ukraine of beginning the war by attacking Russia.

As one official noted:

“We have to prepare for a significant escalation in attacks, and our air defense systems must be strengthened to protect our critical infrastructure.”

(understandingwar.org)

America Backpeddles on Greenland in Response to Strong European Front

U.S. President Donald Trump has softened his stance regarding Greenland, indicating that a deal concerning the Arctic region is within reach. During the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump announced that he would not impose previously threatened tariffs on several nations, stating that a framework for future negotiations had been established. He emphasized that he would not resort to force in pursuing discussions about Greenland, which has been a focal point of U.S. interest due to its strategic location and resources.

In conjunction with this announcement, Trump has appointed key figures, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, to participate in the ongoing discussions. His comments were made following a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and they contributed to a positive reaction in the stock market, with the S&P 500 index rising over 1.5%. This shift in tone reflects a broader strategy that may influence NATO dynamics and U.S. relations with Arctic nations.

“We have formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

(Reuters.com)

Trump Attempts to Broker Four-Day Ceasefire in Syria

The situation in northeastern Syria remains tense as Syrian President Ahmed al Shara temporarily halted the government offensive against Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) following a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump on January 19. A four-day ceasefire was established to allow SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi to consult with SDF leaders regarding Shara’s demands, which include the SDF’s integration into the Syrian state and the handover of Hasakah Province. Despite this pause, Syrian government forces have continued to advance towards SDF-held regions, raising concerns about potential ISIS breakouts from detention facilities amid the chaotic withdrawal of SDF forces.

Internal divisions within the SDF complicate the situation, with hardline elements potentially pressuring Abdi to reject the government’s terms. As the Syrian government moves to assert control over previously SDF-held territories, deploying security measures to stabilize the region, the risk of renewed conflict looms if an agreement is not reached by the end of the ceasefire.

“The four-day pause also provides Abdi an opportunity to prepare defenses if he cannot secure agreement within the SDF to accept the deal (more on preparing defenses below). Shara pledged that the Syrian army will not enter Hasakah City, Qamishli, or Kurdish villages” in the event of an agreement.”

(understandingwar.org)

Israeli Strikes Kill Journalists and Children in Gaza

On January 21, 2026, Israeli fire resulted in the deaths of 11 Palestinians, including three journalists and two boys, amid ongoing violence that threatens a three-month-old ceasefire in Gaza. The fatalities occurred in separate incidents, with an Israeli airstrike targeting journalists on assignment and tank shelling killing a child. The Israeli military claimed the airstrike was a response to a perceived threat from a drone linked to Hamas.

The situation in Gaza remains tense, with ongoing clashes and a stalled peace plan proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, which has not advanced beyond a ceasefire phase. The plan aims for disarmament of Hamas and the establishment of a new administration for Gaza’s reconstruction, but no timetable for implementation has been set. Since the ceasefire began, over 460 Palestinians and three Israeli soldiers have been reported killed, highlighting the fragility of the current situation.

The Palestinian Journalists Syndicate condemned the deaths, stating that the journalists were “carrying out a humanitarian, journalistic mission to film and document the suffering of civilians in displacement camps.”

(reuters.com)

Relations between the UAE and regional neighbors Sours, and the Nation Pivots to India.

During a recent visit to New Delhi on January 19th, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed significant agreements to strengthen defense and trade ties between the two countries. The deals include the UAE supplying India with $3 billion worth of gas and collaborating on a mega investment zone in Gujarat. Additionally, the nations agreed to explore joint nuclear technology development and established a framework for a strategic defense partnership that enhances military cooperation and joint weapons production. This initiative is part of a broader goal to double bilateral trade to $200 billion by 2032.

The agreements come amid rising tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, highlighting a competitive dynamic in the region as both nations seek to expand their influence. Analysts suggest that the UAE’s partnership with India serves as a strategic hedge, allowing Abu Dhabi to diversify its alliances without becoming embroiled in India’s regional conflicts. The UAE is building overlapping security arrangements with various nations, including Israel and Ethiopia, to reinforce its influence across the Horn of Africa and into the Indo-Pacific region.

“The net effect is to widen the UAE’s strategic options and complicate Saudi Arabia’s ability to shape South Asian alignments through Pakistan alone, without necessarily pushing the Gulf into a hardened two-camp structure.”

(newarab.com)

My Thoughts…

The World is changing, but the actors within it are not. Countries like the US, China, and Russia are exerting their power to the maximum as global pressures and acute resource shortages change the fundamental contours of geopolitical interactions between Nations.

The counter push against Trump, Globalized Corporate Fascism, is solidifying. A strong, united front in the face of US aggression against Greenland ultimately forced the US to back down. This highlights a very key observation of mine. The United States is only comfortable engaging in conflicts when there is a clear balance of power in its favor. Hesitancy to act in Iran in the face of the threat of a kinetic response and the appearance of a popular uprising that appears to be faltering suggests that the Trump Billionaire government is not comfortable with intervention that cannot guarantee success. Furthermore, at the same time the strikes would have best taken place, unrest broke out in Minneapolis, Minnesota, over the murder of Renee Good, a mother who was peacefully documenting ICE behavior.

The mix of internal instability and the likelihood of a kinetic exchange is a potent combination that might be enough to cause Trump and his backers to hit the pause button.

However, while this strike was avoided… for now. It appears that Iran is beginning to implement a more effective crackdown. Talk of executions, thousands in custody. Mass hangings and lingering insurgencies suggest that a popular uprising is being quashed with brutal military force. Estimates pushing 20,000 are likely to climb, and the loss of life will be considerable. Especially as the situation declines and as water shortages take hold. Iran is facing internal collapse, which may come in many forms. The underlying factor driving unrest in Iran is water. Tehran’s aquifers are about to run dry, and across the country, water mismanagement and overconsumption, paired with desertification driven by global warming, will continue to exacerbate the acute water shortage the country is already facing.

This plight is not unique to Iran either; the UN report on water bankruptcy is another bellwether. Countries in the Middle East that rely heavily on groundwater for agriculture are going to reach those tipping points rapidly. Africa is especially vulnerable, and the crisis across the continent will likely lead to greater instability and environmental crises that will add to the woes of nations.

As all of this is happening, the World Economic Forum in Davos showed us what the global opposition to Trump looks like. Carney’s speech put it simply: we either come together and oppose the bullies, or we become victims ourselves.

The United States backpedaling on Greenland demonstrates the critical success, and if the EU votes to implement the ACI, it would symbolize a formal decoupling from the US and a shift to a new economic structure built around the United States over the last year.

Perils face people around the world, and conflicts rage across every continent. United States supremacy is waning, and examples of this can be seen in the 32 billion dollar backlog in weapons promised to Taiwan.

Russia is becoming increasingly wild and dangerous. Desperation is gripping Putin and the oligarchs as Ukraine fails to capitulate. Reckless actions around the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant represent an acute threat to the entire global community. Whilst, like many populations around the world, the people of Ukraine suffer from the effects of reckless violence.

The discussion between Trump and the Syrian leadership leaves me with questions… What is there to gain here? Why does the United States corporate government care? I will look into this further and highlight the Syrian conflict more in the future.

Thank you for reading.

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After a very needed long weekend, I am back. The world, of course, does not stop while we take a rest, so as always, there is quite a bit of catch-up.

We get to close the book, for now, on the conflict in Yemen as the situation shifts yet again, revealing a geopolitical quagmire of shadow diplomacy between regional rivals. At the same time recently developments along the Thai/Cambodian border threaten to reignite the conflict that flared up again in December 2025. A reignition threatens global supply chains and could see a renewed push by Thailand to acquire contested territory.

The situation in Africa is chaotic, with key resource hubs being frequently attacked or seized by militant groups across the continent. With countries facing insurgencies they cannot fully contain, and in some cases, essential resource hubs are under the control of independent groups. A new market is emerging where these groups are selling those resources… the world faces a decision in which ethically sourced materials are becoming more expensive, while bloody minerals are becoming increasingly available.

NATO is stressed to breaking point as the United States and its decades-old partners face off over a potential occupation of Greenland. On the table is military force, and the US and the Billionaire government are planning a set of Tariffs for February as the EU prepares a sanctions package to counter US actions. The fallout of such a trade war between former allies would be devastating to the United States, and the discussions and possibility of escalation are showing in markets.

Lots to cover this week! So let’s get into the news.

The Battle for South Yemen Is Over– For Now

The geopolitical shockwave radiating from the southern Arabian Peninsula has fundamentally altered the security architecture of the Red Sea. The anti-Houthi coalition has not merely fractured; it has dissolved into a direct state-on-state confrontation played out through proxy liquidation. The events of early January 2026 represent the final death knell of the unified Gulf front, replaced by a raw struggle for the partition of South Yemen between Saudi Arabia’s territorial imperatives and the United Arab Emirates’ maritime ambitions.

Toppling the STC: From Mukalla to Aden

The crisis reached its kinetic apex in the final days of 2025 and the first week of 2026. Following the Saudi-led coalition’s airstrike on a UAE weapons shipment in the port of Mukalla on December 30, 2025, the conflict rapidly escalated from skirmishes to a coordinated campaign of erasure targeting the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC). Riyadh justified the Mukalla strike as a “red line” necessity to prevent the STC from consolidating a secessionist state that would choke Saudi access to the Arabian Sea, a strategic imperative for the Kingdom’s “Vision 2030” logistics goals.

The Battle for Aden and Hadhramaut:

Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) forces launched a counter-offensive after the New Year, recapturing the Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra governorates and the interim capital, Aden, by January 10, 2026, effectively reversing the STC’s December gains. The success hinged on the deployment of the Saudi-engineered “Homeland Shield” (Dara’ al-Watan) forces. These units displaced Emirati influence from key locations like the Maashiq Presidential Palace and Aden International Airport, suggesting a long-term Saudi strategy to “Saudize” South Yemen’s security apparatus and create a buffer zone against both Houthi and Emirati expansionism.

Calling it a “limited” operation, Saudi Arabia justified the move by saying its national security was a “red line” and labelling the Emirati steps as “extremely dangerous”.

(middleeasteye.net)

The Extraction of Aidarous al-Zubaidi

The strategic divorce between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi was laid bare by the dramatic extraction of STC President Aidarous al-Zubaidi. On January 7, 2026, following the collapse of STC defensive lines and a refusal to attend summons in Riyadh—which he likely viewed as a trap—al-Zubaidi fled Aden.

STC President Aidarous al-Zubaidi fled Aden via a vessel, BAMEDHAF, and was extracted by UAE forces through Somaliland to Abu Dhabi. The operation led to a major diplomatic crisis: Somalia, angered by the violation of its sovereignty and the UAE’s engagement with Somaliland, canceled all security and port agreements with the UAE and banned its military aircraft. This incident cemented a new “Red Sea Axis” (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Somalia), with Egypt providing critical intelligence to Riyadh, aimed at encircling and neutralizing Emirati influence in the Horn of Africa.

“According to the coalition, intelligence findings showed that the vessel used in the escape, identified as BAMEDHAF, departed Aden shortly after midnight on January 7 and sailed toward Somaliland, turning off its transponder before reaching Berbera.”

(english.alarabiya.net)

“Saudi Arabia’s efforts to establish a military alliance with Somalia and Egypt reflect a significant shift in regional dynamics, as the kingdom seeks to curtail the growing influence of the UAE and redefine its security partnerships in the face of escalating tensions.”

(middleeasteye.net)

The “Dissolution” Narrative and the Deepfake Allegations

The conflict has shifted to an information war over the status of the Southern Transitional Council (STC). On January 9, 2026, Saudi state media announced the STC’s “dissolution” and integration into the PLC, using a statement read by STC Secretary General Abdulrahman al-Subaihi. However, STC spokesmen in Abu Dhabi and Aden immediately denied the announcement, calling it a fabrication extracted under duress and asserting the Riyadh delegation was held hostage. This has created a “Schrödinger’s Council” scenario, where the STC is physically active but legally dissolved, effectively neutralizing its political agency. Both sides have also used deepfake allegations regarding the video evidence to manipulate public sentiment. Separately, the kinetic phase of January 2026 has resulted in a heavy toll, though casualty numbers remain obscured by propaganda.

“Now that Saudi Arabia has reasserted its authority in Yemen, the UAE may be facing a fork in the road: it must choose to remain within the Gulf Cooperation Council under Saudi leadership or opt out to pursue regional expansion in collaboration with the United States and Israel.”

(securitycouncilreport.org)

Displacement and Humanitarian Crisis

The U.N. has raised alarms about the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Yemen, predicting that the number of people in need of assistance will rise to 21 million in 2026, up from 19.5 million the previous year. This worsening crisis is attributed to economic collapse, disruptions in essential services like health and education, and reduced funding from traditional Western donors, as they shift focus to defense spending. Julien Harneis, the U.N. Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Yemen, emphasized that the country is facing increased food insecurity and malnutrition, with a significant risk of epidemics like measles and polio due to a weakened health system.

The U.N. operations are severely limited, particularly in Houthi-controlled areas, which account for about 70% of humanitarian needs. Harneis noted that the situation is exacerbated by the detention of U.N. staff and the relocation of the U.N. resident coordinator to Aden after a series of detentions in Sanaa. The ongoing humanitarian response is critically hindered, raising concerns about the implications for both the local population and regional stability.

“To see our humanitarian response so hobbled is terrifying,” Harneis stated.

(reuters.com)

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The Greenland Ultimatum and Transatlantic Trade War

President Trump’s renewed bid to purchase Greenland has escalated from rhetorical ambition to economic warfare. On January 17, 2026, the White House announced a tiered tariff regime targeting eight European nations (Denmark, Sweden, France, Germany, Netherlands, Finland, UK, Norway) that oppose the acquisition.

The Tariff Mechanism:

* Phase 1 (Feb 1, 2026): A 10% tariff on “any and all goods” from the targeted nations.

* Phase 2 (June 1, 2026): Escalation to 25% if a deal for the “Complete and Total purchase” of Greenland is not reached.

The “Golden Dome” Justification:

The Trump administration has pivoted its rationale from resource acquisition to national security, claiming Greenland is vital for the “Golden Dome” missile defense shield. This narrative asserts that control of the island is necessary to intercept hypersonic threats from Russia and China. Military experts widely regard this as a pretext, noting that the US already possesses extensive rights at Pituffik Space Base (Thule) under the 1951 defense treaty, rendering acquisition unnecessary for technical defense purposes. The “Golden Dome” narrative is an epistemic device used to domesticate the aggressive acquisition strategy for the US voter base, framing a resource grab as existential protection.

EU Retaliation: The “Bazooka”:

The European Union is mobilized for a retaliatory strike. An emergency summit scheduled for January 22 is expected to debate the activation of the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI). Known as the “trade bazooka,” this never-before-used mechanism allows the EU to impose sweeping sanctions, restrict US access to public procurement, and block American foreign direct investment. French President Macron is leading the push for immediate ACI deployment, arguing that failure to respond to US coercion would shatter the bloc’s geopolitical credibility. Conversely, Germany remains hesitant, fearing a total collapse of transatlantic auto trade, highlighting the EU’s internal fragility in responding.

The Commodities Super-Cycle: Gold, Silver, and Uranium

The geopolitical instability has triggered a historic flight to hard assets, signaling a total loss of confidence in the stability of fiat currencies amid trade warfare.

Precious Metals:

* Gold: Reached an all-time high of $4,759.60/oz on January 20, 2026. This price action reflects the pricing in of “sovereign risk” across the G7.

* Silver: Surged to $94.74/oz, a new record. The spike is driven by both monetary demand and fears of industrial supply chain ruptures in the electronics sector due to the trade war.

Experts say that Trump’s statement, made ahead of an unproductive diplomatic meeting between the two nations Wednesday in Washington, ignores the U.S. military’s existing, and crucial, presence on the island at Pituffik Space Base.

“What he is saying is detached from reality,” said Todd Harrison, a defense and space policy expert with the American Enterprise Institute. “It’s like he doesn’t realize that for decades we’ve had a major base in Greenland that is critical to homeland missile defense and space surveillance.”

(defenseone.com)

Ignacio García Bercero, a former senior European Commission trade official, said failure to deploy the ACI – which he noted could allow retaliation “within weeks” under a so-called “urgency procedure” – would point to deeper institutional dysfunction.

“If the ACI is not used in circumstances like this,” said García Bercero, now a senior fellow at Bruegel, “it will never be used.”

(euractiv.com)

Uranium futures rose past $85 per pound in January, the highest in 17 months, as signs of stronger demand in the longer term spurred fresh buying from physical funds.

(tradingeconomics.com)

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Breakaway Government Seizes Massive Amounts of Uranium in Niger

A huge uranium shipment that left northern Niger in late November has been stuck for weeks at Niamey airport.

The cargo has created a diplomatic headache for the junta that seized power in 2023 and has since turned away from traditional ally France and closer to Russia.

Here is what we know about the shipment, estimated at more than 1,000 tonnes, which the Sahelian country -- among the world’s leading producers of uranium -- wants to sell: (us.afpnews.com)

Nigers Military Opposition Government Moves to Sell Seized Uranium– Prompts Chaos in Markets

Niger’s military government announced its intention to sell uranium produced by the SOMAÏR mine on the international market, asserting its right to manage its natural resources independently. General Abdourahamane Tiani, the head of the junta, emphasized that Niger intends to sell its uranium freely, despite France’s Orano company, which has a 60 percent stake in SOMAÏR, claiming that the removal of uranium is illegal and violates a ruling from the International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID). Orano stated that it was unaware of the shipment’s specifics and warned of potential legal actions against any parties involved in the transfer.

The situation escalated following the junta’s intervention in December 2024, which led to the loss of operational control by Orano and a shift in Niger’s foreign relations, distancing itself from France while seeking closer ties with Russia. The SOMAÏR mine, along with Cominak and Imouraren, is crucial for global uranium supply, with Niger accounting for about a quarter of the natural uranium used by European nuclear power plants in 2022. Orano reported that approximately 1,500 metric tons of uranium were stockpiled at SOMAÏR prior to the transfer, with potential buyers including interests from Turkey, Iran, and Russia.

“This shipment is in breach of the decision handed down in favor of Orano,” the company said in a November 27 release, warning that it reserves the right to take “any additional action necessary, including criminal proceedings against third parties, should the material be taken in violation of its offtake entitlement.”

Further, the company told Reuters by email that “transporting a large quantity of uranium through an unsecured corridor poses significant safety and security risks.”

(investingnews.com)

General Abdourahamane Tiani statement:

“Niger’s legitimate right to dispose of its natural riches to sell them to whoever wants to buy them, under the rules of the market, in complete independence.” This quote highlights the military government’s stance on managing its natural resources and its intention to assert sovereignty over uranium sales.

(investingnews.com)

Who is the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP)

The National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP) originated from a coup d’état on July 26, 2023, which overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum and his civilian government in Niger. The military junta, led by Colonel-Major Amadou Abdramane, claimed that the takeover was necessary due to the deteriorating security situation and poor governance in the country. Following the coup, the junta dissolved the Constitution, suspended all state institutions, and imposed a curfew.

A supporting quote from Colonel Abdramane during the announcement of the coup highlights the junta’s justification:

“The defense and security forces have decided to topple Bazoum’s Government due to the deteriorating security situation and bad governance.”

(en.wikipedia.org)

A World on Fire: Breaking News Around the World

Official Annoucement US, Ukraine minerals deal will finally go live in 2026

The joint U.S.-Ukraine investment fund, referred to as the minerals deal, is set to launch in early 2026, as confirmed by Ukraine’s Economy Ministry. Following a consensus reached by the fund’s board on December 18, the initiative will accept investment proposals starting in January 2026, with the first investment decisions anticipated by the end of that year. The fund, established through a “minerals deal” signed in April 2025, aims to enhance Ukraine’s long-term growth and supply chain resilience by focusing on critical sectors such as minerals, energy, infrastructure, ICT, and emerging technology.

In recent months, significant progress has been made towards operationalizing the fund, including a commitment from both Ukraine and the U.S. to invest $75 million each. The U.S. has shown particular interest in Ukraine’s critical raw materials, and a U.S. delegation has already explored potential projects related to titanium, zirconium, and hafnium. With the appointment of Alvarez & Marsal as the investment advisor and $150 million in initial capital secured, the fund is poised to begin its investments, with all profits reinvested into Ukraine for the first decade of operation. Additionally, U.S. military assistance may also be considered as contributions to the fund.

(kyivindependent.com)

Academics Raise Alarms About US (CRE) Real Estate Mortgages

Financial experts are raising concerns about potential losses in commercial real estate (CRE) mortgages as approximately $1 trillion in loans is set to mature and require refinancing at significantly higher interest rates over the coming year. Many of these mortgages, primarily structured as five- or ten-year balloon loans, were issued in a lower rate environment and are now facing the challenge of rolling over at elevated rates. Additionally, numerous 5-1 adjustable rate mortgages are also set to reprice, further exacerbating the situation. The combination of these refinancing challenges and a decline in the value of commercial properties compared to pre-pandemic levels has revealed vulnerabilities within the banking system, particularly regarding CRE mortgages, construction loans, and unused commitments.

To assess the risk exposure of U.S. banks to commercial real estate, a screener evaluates 154 of the largest banks with assets exceeding $10 billion. This assessment calculates each bank’s total CRE exposure as a percentage of its total equity, utilizing publicly available quarterly data from the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council. A ratio exceeding 300% is considered excessive and indicates a higher risk of bank failure. This ongoing project, conducted by The Banking Initiative at Florida Atlantic University, relies on Dr. Cole’s analysis of Bank Call Report data for Q2 2025.

(business.fau.edu)

Wall Street Takes a Dive as Cracks Continue to Emerge

Wall Street’s main indexes began the week on a negative note, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.16%, the S&P 500 down 1.15%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropping 1.34%. The decline was largely attributed to renewed tariff threats from President Trump against several European countries amid a dispute over Greenland, which spooked investors and led to a risk-off sentiment in the market. The Nasdaq fell below its 50-day moving average, a critical technical indicator, while the CBOE Volatility Index reached a two-month high, reflecting increased market anxiety.

As investors brace for a busy week of economic data and earnings reports, including updates on U.S. GDP and inflation measures, several major companies are set to announce their quarterly results. Notably, Netflix saw a slight gain after announcing an all-cash offer for Warner Bros Discovery’s assets, while 3M’s stock tumbled 8.5% following a disappointing profit forecast. Additionally, discussions surrounding the potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair by Trump have kept market participants on edge, as they also pay attention to global leaders’ speeches at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

(Reuters.com)

Tensions Between Cambodia and Thailand Reignite over Razing of Homes By Thai Soldiers

The recent actions of Thai forces who have demolished homes in a Cambodian village near the border. This operation has reportedly displaced numerous families and has raised concerns about the treatment of Cambodian citizens by Thai authorities. The demolitions appear to be part of a broader effort by Thailand to manage its border security and address illegal activities, but the impact on local communities has been significant, leading to calls for accountability and protection of residents’ rights.

Earlier this month, Cambodia accused Thai forces of annexing the two contested border villages, Chouk Chey and Boeung Trakuon, among several disputed areas Phnom Penh says were seized.

Local officials and human rights advocates have expressed outrage over the demolitions, emphasizing the need for dialogue between the two countries to resolve border issues without harming civilians. The situation highlights ongoing tensions in the region regarding border management and the rights of individuals living in contested areas.

(sg.news.yahoo.com)

A Bankruptcy Crisis is Brewing in the United States

As we approach 2026, various retailers are facing significant challenges that could lead to potential bankruptcy filings. Saks Global, burdened by debt from its merger with Neiman Marcus and a slowdown in luxury sales, is reportedly planning to file for Chapter 11. GameStop continues to struggle with declining revenues, while Leslie Pools faces persistent revenue decline due to unfavorable weather conditions. Other retailers, such as AMC, Carter’s, and Kroger, are also grappling with financial difficulties, including significant debt and declining sales, prompting restructuring efforts and store closures.

Additionally, Sportsman’s Warehouse, Walgreens, Outback Steakhouse, and Red Robin are under pressure from weakening consumer spending, operational challenges, and competitive market forces. With many of these companies experiencing negative revenue growth and high operational costs, the risk of bankruptcy looms large in 2026. Retail experts suggest that without substantial changes in strategy or financial management, these retailers may be forced to restructure or close their doors.

(stark-stark.com)

Allegations of a UAE Secret Prison in Yemen

In a significant escalation of tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, a senior Saudi official accused the UAE of operating a secret prison at Riyan airbase in Yemen during a media tour, marking a public rupture in their previously united front. This accusation, part of a broader information campaign, highlights the deepening rift over influence in Yemen and reflects a shift from a coalition against the Houthis to a proxy struggle between the two Gulf nations. The Southern Transitional Council, backed by the UAE, denied the allegations, but the fallout could destabilize the region further and complicate U.S. relations with both countries.

“This marks a deliberate public rupture in Gulf unity, with Saudi Arabia using a staged media event to level grave human rights accusations against its former coalition partner.”

(moderndiplomacy.eu)

Canada Makes Landmark Economic Trade Agreement w/ China

The agreement between Canada and China addresses various bilateral economic and trade concerns, focusing on enhancing trade relations and resolving long-standing issues. Key highlights include:

Trade Volume: Bilateral trade between Canada and China reached $130.9 billion in 2024, making China Canada’s second-largest trading partner.

Electric Vehicles (EVs): Canada will allow an annual quota of 49,000 Chinese EVs at a tariff rate of 6.1%, with 50% of this quota reserved for affordable EVs priced at $35,000 CAD or less by 2030. This aims to stimulate joint-venture investments in Canada’s auto manufacturing sector.

Canola Seeds: By March 1, 2026, China is expected to reduce tariffs on Canadian canola seeds from 84% to approximately 15%, improving access for $4 billion in annual exports.

Agricultural Products: Canada anticipates that canola meal, lobsters, peas, and crabs will not face anti-discrimination tariffs starting March 1, 2026, enhancing market access for $2.6 billion in agricultural goods.

Other Products: Canada expects the resumption of exports of beef, pet food, and animal genetics to China.

Steel and Aluminum: Remission measures for certain Chinese steel and aluminum products will be extended to the end of 2026, covering products in short supply in Canada.

Trade Diversification Goal: Canada aims to increase exports to China by 50% by 2030.

The agreement will be reviewed in three years to assess the realization of expected benefits for Canada.

(international.gc.ca)

The most fraught part of the deal is the Trump factor. Carney has now put real daylight between Canada’s trade policies and the U.S. administration’s protectionist policies.

(policymagazine.ca)

My Thoughts…

We are heading into a Perilous week, the continuing trend is conflict driving market volitility and supply chain anxiety-driven policy.

The US pressure on Greenland indicates that internal economic pressures are mounting, as experts are blowing whistles signalling a market contraction across multiple fields of the US economy. This multifaceted problem is driven by a bundle of factors, many self-inflicted, but some are long-time in the making.

Chinese Controls and the solidification of a global trade structure that isolates the United States are underway; the threats to annex Greenland may force a total blockade of the US economy. Europe is hesitant, but US aggression further and further pushes its former allies to agree and take extreme action or see the United States turn into a territorial aggressor, unlike Putin.

The Primary driver of Greenland’s annexation is access to the island’s rare-earth minerals. As Chinese pressure mounts and resource shortages become acute, tech companies and military manufacturers are feeling the squeeze. A very worried Billionaire and techno-fascist elite is likely pressuring the Trump government to use military power to protect vulnerable investments that are linked to supply chain dependencies like power projects and data centers.

Canada’s breaking ranks and the implementation of a new trade plan with China signify an even larger shift. The United States closest partners are breaking ranks and solidifying Trade agreements that exclude the United States. This significantly weakens the United States regional influence and may set an example for Mexico to do the same. Effectively killing NAFTA and the United States trade hegemony of the North American continent.

Even changes in Western diplomacy and policy do not cover the sheer volume of economic stressors, militant groups, and breakaway governments like the CNSP in Niger are increasingly gaining control over key resources. Oftentimes, seizing them from Western, Chinese, European, or even American companies. This creates a large vacuum of uncertainty, in which capital ownership of these resources may not be enough to ensure they continue to produce and retain autonomy, regardless of who governs the region.

This trend is popping up all over Africa, from Sudan with Oil fields and gold mines, to the Congo in the Uvira region with Tantalum and Titanium… owning a mine is not enough. Entities and nations must be able to protect that infrastructure. Even though international law bans the sale of these seized materials, increasing pressure on supply availability will see shadowy actors like China, Russia, Iran, and Arab States purchase the materials.

Creating a situation in which countries are unwilling to buy from alternatives to the normal market to account for shortfalls.

The United States could very well be among these as well. This creates a situation in which countries can either choose to acknowledge the market and potentially gain a resource advantage or maintain international standards designed to prevent exploitative practices and the resale of materials.

If countries legitimize these markets, it creates a viable path for more groups like the M23 and the CNSP to seize and sell materials from privately owned mines and government-owned resources.

This could create a sovereignty crisis, in which African governments are toppled, and breakaway states use mineral access to gain international recognition.

The situation in Thailand appears to be one of restraint but a desire for violence; the objective appears to be the annexation of the disputed territory. This model’s Israeli tactics of seizure of territory followed by destruction of local homes to make returning to the area impossible for locals.

Cambodia’s calls for international intervention and its appeals for restraint from regional countries are likely to fall on deaf ears, as Thailand pushes the boundaries and quietly seeks to take more Cambodian land.

A resurgence of the conflict would disrupt the Thailand+1 program once again. The last time this happened, semiconductor manufacturing and other tech were majorly affected. Nvidia announcing the scaling back of certain production and price increases.

Thailand and Cambodia are responsible for a great deal of off-site chip assembly and testing… the vulnerable Mekong trade corridor would again see interruptions to the 4 billion dollar trade industry. Within nearly a month of the cessation of hostilities.

The UAE appears to be in decline, at the very least, on the back foot. Saudi forces promptly crushed the STC’s rapid gains, and following the evacuation of Al-Zaibadi, the relationship between Somalia and the UAE collapsed. Meanwhile, the alignment of regional powers Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Somalia suggests that the UAE is in the ‘out’ crowd. Egypt has begun to take limited action against even the RSF in Sudan, as the humanitarian crisis grows.

Nothing is set in stone in the Gulf; however, a new triad appears to be angling for control over the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

Thank you for reading.

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Firebrands and new readers alike,

Today, the world is glued to the chaos in Iran. As we have previously discussed, it appears likely that military action in Iran will take place this week. We have major trade developments as new relationships are forged in the fallout of the billionaire American regime. Canadian PM Mark Carney’s visit to Beijing, at Xi Jinping’s request, is underway, and the discussions there will significantly shape global trade dynamics in North America. The United States economy is showing signs of catastrophe even as Wall Street posts record-breaking numbers. By examining a variety of economic indicators, we assess just how close to the edge America really is.

No more preamble. As always, we have a lot to cover, and more is on the way.

NOTE: This report contains images of bodies of protestors killed in Iranian protests… if these images make you uncomfortable, I want you to know what section to skip. To avoid this image, scroll past the ‘Casualty Metrics and the Fog of War’ section.

Some truths are hard to face; that is why I include them. We must witness these uncomfortable truths so we can prevent them in our lives and communities.

The Iranian Equilibrium Collapse: Revolution, Repression, and the Threat of Intervention

The Islamic Republic of Iran has entered a state of pre-revolutionary fluidity. The protests that began in late December 2025, triggered by the collapse of the rial, have evolved from economic grievances into a unified demand for regime change. The state’s response—characterized by the “Saturation” of violence and the “Enclosure” of information—has failed to quell the uprising, forcing the regime into increasingly desperate measures.

Casualty Metrics and the Fog of War

The divergence in casualty reporting between verified human rights monitors and internal intelligence estimates highlights the severity of the information blockade imposed by Tehran.

Verified Casualties: As of early Wednesday, January 14, 2026, the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) has verified the deaths of at least 2,571 people. This figure represents a catastrophic escalation in state violence. The demographic breakdown of these verified deaths offers chilling insight:

* 2,403 Protesters: Confirmed civilian deaths from direct state violence.

* 147 Government-affiliated personnel: Indicating a shift to active, armed defense by the population.

* 12 Minors (under 18): Confirming the regime’s abandonment of rules of engagement regarding children.

* 9 Non-protester civilians: Collateral damage in urban combat zones.

Intelligence Estimates & The “Body Snatching” Phenomenon: Credible intelligence suggests the true toll is significantly higher. Sources within the U.S. intelligence community and opposition networks estimate the death toll could be between 10,000 and 12,000, with some projections reaching as high as 20,000. Security forces are reportedly seizing corpses from morgues and hospitals to prevent public funerals. Video evidence verified by CBS News shows bodies piled in morgues in Tehran suburbs, exhibiting extensive gunshot and “birdshot” wounds.

State Acknowledgment: In a rare admission, Iranian state television quoted an official stating that “about 2,000 people” had been killed, attempting to frame these deaths as the result of “terrorist operatives”.

SDUBAI, Jan 14 (Reuters) - The death toll from protests in Iran has reached 2,571 people, the U.S.-based HRANA rights group said on Wednesday, as the Islamic Republic’s clerical rulers face the biggest wave of dissent in years.

The group said it had so far verified the deaths of 2,403 protesters, 147 government-affiliated individuals, 12 people aged under 18 and nine non-protester civilians.

An Iranian official said on Tuesday about 2,000 people had been killed, the first time authorities have given an overall death toll from more than two weeks of nationwide unrest.

(al-monitor.com)

The activist group said 1,847 of the dead over more than two weeks of protests were protesters and 135 were government-affiliated. Another nine children were killed, and nine civilians it said were not taking part in protests also were killed. It said over 16,700 people had been detained.

Skylar Thompson of Human Rights Activists News Agency told the AP the new toll was shocking, particularly since it reached four times the death toll of the months long 2022 Mahsa Amini protests in just two weeks.

She warned this toll would still rise.

“We’re horrified but we still think the number is conservative,” she added.

(pbs.org)

Source (themedialine.org)

The Execution of Erfan Soltani and Judicial Speed

The regime has moved from street-level violence to judicial liquidation, using the court system as an instrument of terror.

The Case of Erfan Soltani: Erfan Soltani, a 26-year-old clothing shop employee arrested in Karaj on January 9, was scheduled for execution on Wednesday, January 14, 2026. His case exemplifies the “fast-track” judicial processing promised by Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei.

* Speed of Sentencing: Soltani was tried, convicted, and sentenced to death in less than five days, denied access to legal counsel.

* Symbolic Value: Soltani is the first known protester from this wave to face capital punishment, defying explicit warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding “strong action” if executions proceed.

* Status: As of this report, the execution deadline has passed without official confirmation of his status, leaving his family in psychological torture.

As concerns grow regarding the fate of those detained during recent protests in Iran, news has emerged of the imminent execution of a young protester named Erfan Soltani. His case has sparked a wave of international alarm over the use of “field trials” and extrajudicial killings.

According to information obtained by IranWire, 26-year-old Erfan Soltani has been kept in detention without access to a lawyer, and authorities have not formally charged him. No court hearing has been held in his case. His family has also been threatened, with officials warning that if they speak publicly or contact the media about his situation, other family members will be arrested.

Human rights lawyer Mohammad Oliaifard told IranWire:

“It is legally impossible to arrest someone and execute them within three days. Even with a state-appointed lawyer, the absolute minimum for such a process would be ten days. If the individual has an independent lawyer, it would take at least thirty days to account for the legal window for appeals.”

(iranwire.com)

US/Israel Intervention and the Al-Udeid Withdrawal

The Al-Udeid Withdrawal: Two U.S. officials and three diplomats confirmed that the U.S. military has begun withdrawing “certain personnel” from Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar.

* Context: This is a “precautionary measure” following Tehran’s explicit warning that Al-Udeid would be targeted if U.S. strikes launch from the region.

* Israel’s Role: Israel has raised its military alert level to the highest tier, anticipating a potential U.S. strike within 24-48 hours. Intelligence reports suggest White House envoy Steve Witkoff recently met with exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, signaling a shift toward active regime change coordination.

The United States is withdrawing personnel from key bases in the region as a precaution given heightened regional tensions, a US official tells Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The disclosure follows remarks by a senior Iranian official who told Reuters earlier that Tehran had warned neighbors hosting US troops that it would hit American bases if Washington strikes.

Earlier today, some personnel were advised to leave the US military’s Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar by this evening.

Al Udeid is the Middle East’s largest US base, housing around 10,000 troops. Ahead of the US airstrikes on Iran in June some personnel were moved off US bases in the Middle East.

(timesofisrael.com)

Israel’s Army Radio reported that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had increased readiness for a range of potential escalation scenarios involving Iran and placed several military formations on heightened alert.

Public broadcaster Kan said changes had been made to Israel’s air defense systems over the past 24 hours, including the deployment of the Iron Dome interceptor system. Citing officials, broadcasters said Israel assesses that Iran is unlikely to attack Israel unless the United States carries out a large-scale strike on Iranian territory.

(english.news.cn)

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US Economic Fracture: The “K-Shaped” Collapse

The U.S. economy is defined by a violent divergence: asset prices are booming due to inflation hedging, while the physical economy contracts.

The Metals Supercycle: Flight to Hard Assets

Capital is fleeing into tangible assets, driving precious metals to historic highs.

* Gold: Spot gold prices hit a peak of $4,641.29 per ounce on January 14, 2026. Major brokerages forecast $5,000/oz in 2026 due to geopolitical fears and Fed rate cut expectations.

* Silver: Silver surged over 14% year-to-date to a record $92.23 per ounce. Industrial demand for solar panels and a 200-million-ounce deficit are driving this structural squeeze.

* Lithium: Prices have rebounded to 163,000 CNY/T, rising 2.19% on January 14. This confirms the “Not Enough to Go Around” thesis as energy storage demand collides with supply constraints.

Spot gold traded as high as $4,629.94 per ounce on Monday, while silver climbed to a record of $86.22/oz in the same session.

The metal has gained more than 6% in just 13 days of 2026, after breaking through multiple milestones and gaining 64% last year.

Major brokerages expect gold to reach $5,000/oz in 2026, anticipating that safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tension, monetary policy easing, ETF inflows and central bank buying will carry forward the momentum from last year.

(mining.com)

Lithium carbonate futures surged past CNY 150,000 per tonne in January, gaining nearly 30% since the start of the year to a two-year high, as signs of strong demand for power storage coincided with the outlook of capped supply. Chinese authorities lowered export rebates for battery producers from April, driving manufacturers to front-run lithium orders.

(tradingeconomics.com)

The Retail Apocalypse: Saks Global Bankruptcy

Saks Global filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on January 14, 2026, marking the end of the debt-fueled luxury consumption era.

* The Cause: A debt-fueled $2.65 billion acquisition of Neiman Marcus in 2024 and a collapse in “aspirational” spending.

* The Fallout: Liabilities are listed between $1 billion and $10 billion. Luxury giants Chanel ($136M claim) and Kering ($60M claim) are unsecured creditors, exposing the fragility of the wholesale model.

* Financing: Saks secured $1.75 billion in DIP financing, but the brand’s dominance is effectively over.

The owner of Saks Fifth Avenue is seeking bankruptcy protection, buffeted by rising competition and the massive debt it took on to buy its rival in the luxury sector, Neiman Marcus, just over a year ago.

Saks Global, which also operates Bergdorf Goodman, has secured roughly $1.75 billion in financing, the New York company said as it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy Wednesday in the Southern District of Texas.

The privately held Saks Global said its stores will remain open as it restructures company debt, meaning that it will honor the programs it has for customers. Suppliers and employees will be paid, Saks said.

Global sales of luxury goods are expected to contract for the second straight year as consumers, anxious about the economy, pare back spending, according to a study by Bain & Co. consultancy released in November.

(apnews.com )

Credit Crisis: The Delinquency Spiral

* Credit Card Delinquency: 61% of cardholders with debt have carried it for over a year, indicating debt has become structural. Total credit card debt exceeds $1.23 trillion.

* Delinquency Rates: Serious delinquency rates are projected to reach 2.57% by end of 2026.

* Policy Intervention: Trump’s proposed 10% interest rate cap is being slammed by banks, who warn it will restrict credit availability for low-income borrowers, potentially triggering a credit crunch.

Credit card balances exceeded $1.2 trillion in 2024, according to the report. Annual growth in credit card balances was about 6% at the end of 2024, closer to pre-pandemic levels, after having reached 17% in the first quarter of 2022.

The CFPB also found that credit card delinquencies and charge-offs reached historically high levels in early 2024 but have since fallen to pre-pandemic levels.

Auto Loans: Accounts 60+ DPD are expected to reach 1.54% (+3 bps YoY), marking the fifth straight year of higher delinquencies—though each increase has become progressively smaller.

Mortgages: Accounts 60+ DPD are projected to hit 1.65% (+11 bps YoY) in December 2026, influenced by a modest rise in unemployment.

Unsecured Personal Loans: Consumers 60+ DPD are forecast at 3.75% (+1 bps YoY), driven partly by macroeconomic pressures and increased non-prime originations.

“Delinquency rates across most credit products are expected to see slight increases, which is not surprising given the unsettled economic environment,” said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. “The growth in serious delinquency rates remains measured, and consumers appear to be managing their finances reasonably well. We’ll continue to monitor these trends closely to determine whether this signals a broader improvement in consumer credit health.”

(newsroom.transunion.com)

Blaming the Biden Administration for the steep interest rates charged by some credit card companies, Trump vowed not to let “the American public be ripped off” any longer. Setting a short deadline, the President—who had previously floated a 10% cap—said the change will come into effect on Jan. 20, a date that holds significance as it’s the one-year anniversary of his return to the White House.

(time.com)

Housing Market: The “Frozen” State

* Sales Volume: 2025 home sales remained stuck at a 30-year low (approx 4.06 million), flat vs 2024.

* Mortgage Rates: The 30-year fixed rate is around 6.16%. While lower than 2024 peaks, it remains too high to unlock inventory, leaving the market frozen.

* Institutional Ban: Trump’s move to ban institutional investors from buying single-family homes is causing market uncertainty, though intended to help affordability.

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.16% for the week ending January 8, up slightly from 6.15% the prior week but down sharply from 6.93% at the same point last year. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, popular among refinancers, averaged 5.46%, edging up from 5.44% but below last year’s 6.14%.

(worldpropertyjournal.com)

NOTE: While the above source accurately reports the mortgage rate numbers, this individual is clearly downplaying the severity of the crisis. Likely to prevent public panic and allow time for larger investors to insulate themselves. This is very common in economic reporting these days.

Manufacturing Recession

* PMI Data: The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 in December (contraction) for the third consecutive month. S&P Global PMI recorded 51.8, signaling weak expansion amid falling export orders.

* Bankruptcy Trends: Commercial Chapter 11 filings increased 1% in 2025, but overall commercial filings rose 5% to 31,810.

* Key Drivers: The drop was driven by pullbacks in the Production Index (down to 51.0) and a contraction in New Orders (47.7), alongside faster contraction in inventories.

While growth remained broad-based at the end of 2025, the rates of expansion softened across both manufacturing and services.

Manufacturing production rose at the slowest pace in five months amid a stagnation of new orders. This was while US manufacturers reported a weak end to 2025, attributed to the first fall in goods new orders in a year. Globally, purchasing activity and inventory levels among good producers also declined further at the end of the year, reflecting subdued conditions and diminished expectations for demand in the coming months. Meanwhile, both services activity and new business increased at the slowest rates in six months.

(spglobal.com)

Large U.S. corporate bankruptcies surged to one of the highest monthly totals in five years in December 2025, with filings increasing to 72 from 63 in November, according to the latest S&P Global Market Intelligence data. This rise extended the 15-year high for annual filings set in November, reaching 785 for the year, the highest since 2010. Rising interest rates have been a significant factor, with companies struggling to refinance debt.

(monitordaily.com)

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The Sino-Canadian Pivot: Mark Carney in Beijing

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney arrived in Beijing on January 14, 2026, for a state visit—the first by a Canadian leader since 2017.

Diversification or Defiance?

Carney’s visit is framed as “Strategic Autonomy” to diversify Canada’s economy away from the U.S. amid “Trump Corollary” tariffs.

* The Goal: Double non-U.S. exports over the next decade. Currently, 77% of exports go to the U.S.

* Chinese Angle: Chinese media urges Canada to “break from U.S. influence” and avoid the “heavy price” of following Washington.

As Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney arrives in China on Wednesday, his hosts see an opportunity to peel the longtime U.S. ally away from their rival, at least a bit.

China’s state media is calling on the Canadian government to set a foreign policy path independent of the United States — what it calls “strategic autonomy.”

Chinese experts said the two countries could find common ground over the U.S. military intervention in oil-rich Venezuela that forcibly brought its president to New York to face charges and Trump’s subsequent statements that Greenland, a Danish territory, should come under U.S. control.

(apnews.com)

Carney aims to double Canada’s non-American exports in the next decade in the face of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the American leader’s musing that Canada could become “the 51st state.”

“At a time of global trade disruption, Canada is focused on building a more competitive, sustainable and independent economy,” Carney said in a statement. “We’re forging new partnerships around the world to transform our economy from one that has been reliant on a single trade partner.”

(apnews.com)

Meeting Updates and Trade Agenda

Carney will meet Premier Li Qiang and President Xi Jinping.

* Trade Targets: Lifting Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola, pork, and seafood (retaliation for Canada’s EV tariffs).

* Energy Deals: Sources suggest agreements on energy and climate cooperation, potentially exporting Canadian LNG/oil to China.

* Outcome: Both sides view this as a “turning point” to regularize communication channels.

Statement from Sept. 22 2025

Carney tells the Council on Foreign Relations that Ottawa should be “clearer about where we engage” with China, including collaborating “deeply” with Beijing on energy, climate change and basic manufacturing, while maintaining “guardrails” around national security matters.

(piquenewsmagazine.com)

Expressing readiness to work with Canada to maintain and develop the positive momentum, while addressing each other’s economic and trade concerns through dialogue and consultation, Li called on the two sides to deepen and expand mutually beneficial cooperation in energy, green development, tourism and other fields to bring more benefits to the two peoples.

(news.cgtn.com)

Rapid Fire Global Updates

So much is happening in the world! These Bulletins stuck out to me today!

The Greenland Crisis: The “Golden Dome” Ultimatum

* The Ultimatum: President Trump declared U.S. control of Greenland “vital” for the “Golden Dome” missile defense system, stating “anything less than that is unacceptable”.

* The Meeting: Danish and Greenlandic Foreign Ministers met with VP JD Vance and Secretary Rubio at the White House on January 14.

* Reaction: Greenland’s PM stated they would choose “Denmark, NATO, and the EU” over the U.S., while Trump dismissed this as “a big problem for him”.

A top Danish official said Wednesday that a “fundamental disagreement” over Greenland remains with President Donald Trump after highly anticipated talks in Washington with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

“The group, in our view, should focus on how to address the American security concerns, while at the same time respecting the red lines of the Kingdom of Denmark,” Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen told reporters after joining Greenland’s foreign minister, Vivian Motzfeldt, for the talks.

Trump is trying to make the case that NATO should help the U.S. acquire the world’s largest island and says anything less than it being under American control is unacceptable.

Denmark has announced plans to boost the country’s military presence in the Arctic and North Atlantic as Trump tries to justify his calls for a U.S. takeover of the vast territory by repeatedly claiming that China and Russia have their designs on Greenland.

Løkke Rasmussen told reporters that it remains “clear that the president has this wish of conquering over Greenland.”

“And we made it very, very clear that this is not in the interest of the kingdom,” he said after the meeting, citing a “fundamental disagreement” with the Trump administration but willing to keep talking.

“This means that from today and in the coming time there will be an increased military presence in and around Greenland of aircraft, ships and soldiers, including from other NATO allies,” Poulsen said.

Earlier, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson wrote on X that “some officers from the Swedish Armed Forces are arriving in Greenland today” as part of a group from several allied countries. “Together, they will prepare events within the framework of the Danish exercise Operation Arctic Endurance,”

(coastreporter.net)

Sudan: The Cairo Peace Talks

* Red Lines: Egyptian FM Badr Abdelatty declared Sudan’s collapse a “red line” for Egypt during talks in Cairo.

* Humanitarian Truce: Talks focus on an immediate truce to allow aid into besieged El-Fasher.

Sudan peace efforts resumed in Cairo on Wednesday with Egypt and the United Nations calling on warring parties to agree to a nationwide humanitarian truce, as the war between the army and its rival paramilitary nears the three-year mark.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty told reporters that Egypt The U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said on Tuesday that at least 19 civilians were killed during ground operations in Jarjira in North Darfur on Monday.

A military-allied Darfur rebel group said that it carried out a joint operation with the army in Jarjira, liberating the area and its surroundings and forcing RSF fighters to flee south. wouldn’t accept the collapse of Sudan or its institutions, or any attempt to undermine its unity or divide its territory, describing such scenarios as “red lines.” “As we press the warring parties for a nationwide humanitarian truce, we will continue to support mechanisms to facilitate the unhindered delivery of assistance to areas suffering from famine, malnutrition, and conflict-driven displacement,” Boulos posted on X.

(apnews.com)

DRC: Landslide Disaster

* Event: A massive landslide in Burutsi (North Kivu) killed at least 13 people with 30+ missing.

* Context: The disaster complicates the humanitarian crisis in a region already destabilized by M23 rebel violence.

At least 13 people were killed and about 40 others are reported missing, after a landslide occurred overnight in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), reported Xinhua, quoting local media.

The incident took place at around 1:00 a.m. on Tuesday (2300 GMT Monday) in the village of Burutsi, in the Walikale territory of North Kivu province, after heavy rainfall triggered a landslide, causing significant human and material losses.

According to media reports, residents, with the support of local authorities, have so far recovered 13 bodies from the rubble, including four children.

(dailyfinland.fi)

Minnesota vs. DHS: The Federalism Crisis

* The Lawsuit: Minnesota sued DHS over “Operation Metro Surge,” calling it a “Federal Invasion” following the ICE killing of Renee Good.

* Legal Ruling: A federal judge declined a temporary restraining order against ICE on January 14, allowing operations to continue pending further evidence.

On Monday, the state of Minnesota, along with the cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul, announced a lawsuit against Noem and other federal officials in an effort to stop the surge of ICE agents from coming to Minnesota.

The suit maintains that the surge is a violation of the 10th Amendment, which states that “the powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.” On Monday, the state of Minnesota, along with the cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul, announced a lawsuit against Noem and other federal officials in an effort to stop the surge of ICE agents from coming to Minnesota.

The suit maintains that the surge is a violation of the 10th Amendment, which states that “the powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.”

A judge on Wednesday morning declined to issue a temporary restraining order against ICE operations in Minnesota, seeking further evidence before issuing a ruling.

The Department of Homeland Security says there are now nearly 3,000 U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents and officers deployed in the area.

Several career prosecutors in the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division announced their resignation this week after learning there would be no civil rights probe into the fatal shooting of Renee Good.

Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty said her office has received a “substantial” number of submissions to the evidence portal her office launched last week after the FBI took sole authority of Good’s shooting.

Students in the Twin Cities, including in Maple Grove, Minneapolis and Roseville, held walkouts on Monday to protest ongoing ICE operations.

The Trump administration secretly reimposed a policy limiting Congress members’ access to immigration detention facilities a day after the fatal ICE shooting, attorneys for several congressional Democrats said Monday in asking a federal judge to intervene.

(cbsnews.com)

My Thoughts…

Today’s events continue the pattern we have seen this year: American foreign intervention is at a peak. The Situation in Iran has deteriorated to a critical stage, and those protesting have passed the point of no return. With the announced execution of Erfan Soltani mere days after being arrested, we now see that with over ten thousand arrested, those in custody face a threat to their lives. The change in military posture and the withdrawal of non-essential military personnel from Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar follow the pattern we saw before the strikes on Iran’s nuclear program in 2025. Israel is moving its famed Iron Dome Air defense batteries to the border. The board is set, and all that is left is for the trigger to be pulled. I believe it is very likely that we see the strike in the next 48 hours. There are several reasons that I believe this.

* US and Israeli forces have a limited window of instability; if the protests are quashed by the Ayatollah regime, direct military action will be more difficult.

* The evacuation of non-essential personnel from Al-Udeid, which houses around 10,000, is a measure to safeguard US troops and civilian contractors from the expected retaliatory strike from Iran.

* Special Operations forces, which are closely linked to the Trump government, that recently participated in the operation to capture Nicolas Maduro, appear to be in the region.

* Trump is making similar comments to those that he made prior to military action in Venezuela; these comments ultimately have a history of being true when he is referring to military action.

The loss of life in Iran is massive. Looking through the images and videos that are coming out of Iran is something that I will never forget. These are young people, like me, who crave liberty, freedom, and opportunity. The next generation is being slaughtered by the generation that was supposed to make a world for them to inherit. Instead, their dreams and aspirations are met with machine gun fire. The effects of US intervention are not guaranteed to remove the regime. The Ayatollah has fortified itself, brought up its military capacity, and is treating its population like an insurgency.

They are well armed, their soldiers are loyal, and they will be difficult to remove. For the Iranian revolution to succeed, some form of foreign intervention is required. However, US or Israeli intervention does not mean a better future for Iran. Merely a future full of more corruption, power squabbles, and uncertainty.

While reports on economic growth from banks and industry professionals paint a picture of rising mortgage rates, climbing credit balances, and surging precious metal assets like silver and gold, record stock valuations. As an American economy that is slowly growing, this is a gross misrepresentation of reality.

The American economy is circling the drain: consumers are tapped out, bankruptcies are surging, supply chains are slowing, purchasing orders are dropping off, and jobs continue to bleed away. Claims that industry investment is surging is the doubling down on a vibeconomy. The idea that because capital is allocated, the stated intent for that capital is realized. This is inherently untrue, and beneath the surface of a narrative that claims slow but non-critical growth lies an ugly truth.

Something big is coming, something those with wealth don’t want to acknowledge, so that they can make out like bandits while the average American suffers.

The collapse is shaping up to be a slow one; the American economy is being taken on a death march. As the American consumer is marched out further and further by its corporate overlords. Slowly dropping one by one to be consumed by credit card debt and loan payments.

Major corporations are filing for bankruptcy like it’s candy, and shelves at big-box stores like Target and Walmart are looking more and more sparse.

Now is the time to look at your assets and decide how best to shelter your money, because what is coming is nothing short of world history.

The meeting between Carney and Xi Jinping is a big topic. Cooperation with Canada on Oil and Natural Gas is essential as the United States tightens its grip on Chinese allies like Venezuela and Iran. A deal with Canada would be the ultimate blow; all of the United States efforts to cut off China would collapse, and its primary leverage card in this economic war Oil would be undermined.

This large-scale use of military enforcement on Oil supply would not work in Canada; any action similar to what we are seeing with the seizure of tankers would be wholly unacceptable to the EU and NATO and would result in a total collapse of NATO and massive sanctions on the US. The US economy cannot take much more external pressure, and the Trump regime knows this. This is the most significant foreign policy development we should be watching at the moment, and it is shaping up to be a massive success for Canada.

The wider world does not stop as we focus on these events today. Natural disasters, once international headlines, are lost amid mountains of threats and conflict, as we saw in the DRC yesterday.

The European and Danish response to Greenland threats is precisely what is needed: a real military deterrent. The only effective deterrent is for the United States to enter armed conflict with NATO allies. I anticipate the United States will continue to escalate rhetoric, but I think it is highly unlikely they enter into armed combat with NATO personnel.

The situation in the United States is reaching a feverpitch; the blatant murder of Renee Nicole Good in Minneapolis has set off a powder keg. ICE is operating with Impunity, and the government, including Judges on local, state, and federal levels are sheltering them from accountability.

My own research has proven beyond any doubt that the Proud Boys, a White Nationalist Group based in the Southern United States, was groomed for this role over the course of the last 10 years. New laws and amendments to the DHS hiring policy allow them to be hired for ICE roles without proper vetting. Leaders of The Proud Boys have appeared on a personnel list, the government is directing federal leadership powers to civilians associated with the Proud Boys and other White Nationalist groups under Tom Homan.

ICE is becoming increasingly violent, and its behavior is not consistent with traditional law enforcement and more aligned with a radicalized population of men from a group that was groomed for this specific purpose. They are determined to spark violence, and by any realistic standards are a privatized militia selectively drawn from a specifically indoctrinated base, not unlike Hitler Youth programs in Nazi Germany.

The people of America are facing total institutional collapse of their government, and the ruling class has unleashed its Gestapo upon the masses. These next weeks and months will be critical.

The American democracy is at stake, as the US teeters on the brink of a police state.

Thank you for reading.

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The Middle East is ablaze, and Africa is facing more violence.

Today, we check in on Iran, Yemen, Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

All of these regions share one thing in common: they are facing insurgencies that will shape the world in 2026. No preamble today, let’s get you up to date.

The Iranian Equilibrium Collapse: Revolution, Repression, and the “Green Screen” State

The Islamic Republic of Iran has entered a state of pre-revolutionary fluidity. The protests that began in late December 2025, triggered by the collapse of the rial to 1.4 million against the US dollar, have evolved from economic grievances into a unified demand for regime change. The state’s response—characterized by the “Saturation” of violence and the “Enclosure” of information—has failed to quell the uprising, forcing the regime into increasingly desperate measures of digital deception.

The “Kahrizak” Massacre and the True Toll of Repression

While Iranian state media acknowledges a death toll of approximately 2,000, naming many as “martyred” security forces, verified intelligence emerging from the country paints a picture of a systematic massacre. As of January 13, credible sources, including leaks from within the Iranian medical establishment and cross-referenced data from human rights organizations, place the civilian death toll between 12,000 and 20,000.

This escalation centers on the brutal crackdowns of January 8-9, 2026. Leaked video footage from the Kahrizak forensic center, located south of Tehran, reveals industrial-scale processing of corpses. Eyewitnesses describe rows of black body bags lining the facility’s courtyards, with intake logs suggesting a volume of fatalities that overwhelmed local morgue capacity within 48 hours.

Indicators of Lethal Saturation:

* The “Morgue Overflow” Phenomenon: Reports verified by Iran International indicate that single hospitals in cities like Rasht and Karaj received upwards of 70 bodies in single shifts. In Fardis and Karaj, videos show bodies piled in hospital corridors, indicative of a “shoot-to-kill” policy authorized at the highest levels of the IRGC.

* Military-Grade Ballistics: Unlike the 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests, where birdshot was common, current forensic data from treating physicians indicates the widespread use of high-velocity combat ammunition targeting the upper torso and head. This shift suggests the deployment of the Saberin Special Forces Brigade and other militarized units typically reserved for external combat.

* Violation of Medical Neutrality: The regime has weaponized the healthcare system. On January 4, IRGC special forces raided the Imam Khomeini Hospital in Ilam, firing tear gas into patient wards to extract wounded protesters for interrogation and detention. This tactic creates a “chilling effect,” deterring the wounded from seeking life-saving care.

After cross-checking information obtained from reliable sources, including the Supreme National Security Council and the presidential office, the initial estimate by the Islamic Republic’s security institutions is that at least 12,000 people were killed in this nationwide killing.

Iran International reached the conclusion after reviewing information it received from a source close to the Supreme National Security Council; two sources in the presidential office; accounts from several sources within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the cities of Mashhad, Kermanshah, and Isfahan; testimonies from eyewitnesses and families of those killed; field reports; data linked to medical centers; and information provided by doctors and nurses in various cities.

In terms of geographic scope, intensity of violence, and the number of deaths in a short time span, this killing is unprecedented in Iran’s history.

Based on information received, those killed were mainly shot by forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij.

This killing was fully organized, not the result of “sporadic” and “unplanned” clashes.

(Iranintl.com)

“The information that we are receiving shows that the violent crackdown [against] the protests has probably been much worse than we can even imagine,” said Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam, who leads the Norway-based activist organization Iran Human Rights.

“The whole international community’s red lines have been crossed,” said Amiry-Moghaddam. “We have a mechanism called responsibility to protect civilians against grave human rights violations, against mass killings … so not only [the] United States, not only President Trump, but the European Union, basically all countries have a responsibility to stop these atrocities.”

(cbsnews.com)

The “Halal Net” vs. The Starlink Breach

The regime has imposed a near-total internet blackout, exceeding 108 hours as of January 13. This blackout is the fullest implementation to date of the National Information Network (NIN), or “Halal Net”—a closed intranet designed to maintain essential banking and administrative functions while severing the population from the global internet.

However, the “Enclosure” phase of this epistemic warfare strategy is failing due to a critical variable: Starlink.

* The Hardware Breach: An estimated 50,000 to 100,000 Starlink terminals have been smuggled into Iran over the preceding two years. These units are creating “digital perforations” in the Halal Net, allowing high-resolution video of atrocities (like the Kahrizak footage) to leak to the outside world.

* Regime Countermeasures: Unable to filter Starlink traffic through central ISPs, the regime has resorted to physical geolocation and jamming trucks. However, the decentralized nature of the terminals has made effective suppression impossible, creating a “cat-and-mouse” dynamic that favors the protesters.

While multiple people – even a whole apartment block – might be able to connect to the internet via a single Starlink terminal, the number of total users in the entire country is at most in the hundreds of thousands, said Doug Madory, the director of internet analysis at Kentik, a network observability and intelligence platform.

They hold Iran’s last tenuous link to the outside world. Very little information, at least electronically, appears to be leaving the country, except for minimal traffic from businesses and individuals whitelisted by the regime.

Across Iran, authorities are hunting for Starlink terminals – jamming whole neighbourhoods using tools developed for electronic warfare, and flying drones over rooftops to search for telltale satellite dishes, say sources. Under a law passed in 2025, possessing a Starlink terminal in Iran can be interpreted as espionage for Israel and is punishable by up to 10 years in prison.

For most of Iran, the internet was shut off on Thursday afternoon – the most severe blackout the country has seen in years of internet shutdowns, coming after days of escalating anti-government protests.

(theguardian.com)

The Rise of the Mobarizoun Popular Front

A new and dangerous variable has emerged in the southeast: the Mobarizoun Popular Front (MPF). This coalition of Baloch anti-regime groups, including elements of Jaish al-Adl, has shifted from sporadic insurgency to coordinated urban warfare.

* Operational Tempo: On January 7, MPF operatives assassinated a Law Enforcement Command (LEC) commander in Iranshahr. On January 11, they successfully ambushed an LEC patrol in Dashtiari County.

* Significance: The MPF represents the militarization of the protests. Unlike the largely unarmed demonstrators in Tehran, the MPF is armed, organized, and explicitly targeting the regime’s security infrastructure in response to the crackdown. This creates a “second front” for the IRGC, forcing them to divert elite units from the urban centers to the periphery.

The MPF is not just a group of angry protesters; it is a calculated revolutionary force. It brings together several Baloch organizations, including the veteran militant group Jaish al-Adl, seeking what they call “deep political change.” Their chosen name, “Mobarizoun,” is a direct hit at the regime’s religious legitimacy, referencing the elite duelists from the dawn of Islamic history. By using this name, the MPF is telling the Iranian people that they are the new vanguard, the ones who will finally stand up to a clerical elite they see as corrupt and exclusionary.

(ynetnews.com)

Recent Baloch anti-regime activity and reported Iranian efforts to use Iranian-backed Iraqi militias to suppress the protests indicate that the regime may be facing significant security bandwidth constraints. Baloch anti-regime coalition Mobarizoun Popular Front (MPF) fighters killed one Law Enforcement Command (LEC) officer and injured another in an attack on an LEC patrol vehicle in Dashtiari County, Sistan and Baluchistan Province, on January 11.

(understandingwar.org)

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The Fracture of the Gulf Coalition: Yemen and the Battle for the South

The geopolitical fiction of a unified “Arab Coalition” in Yemen has effectively dissolved. The conflict has mutated from a proxy war against the Houthis into a direct, kinetic confrontation between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates for the control of South Yemen’s strategic geography. This rupture has redrawn the map of the region, creating a new “partition within a partition.”

The New Reality: “Nation Shield” Hegemony

With the STC routed, Saudi Arabia is consolidating control over South Yemen through its own proxy force, the Nation Shield Forces (NSF) (Dara’ al-Watan).

* Territorial Consolidation: NSF units, supported by Saudi air cover, have rapidly recaptured key strategic nodes previously held by the STC, including the port city of Mukalla, the town of Seiyun in Hadramout, and the presidential palace in Aden.

* The UAE Withdrawal: Facing the total defeat of its proxy and the risk of direct war with Saudi Arabia, the UAE announced a humiliating withdrawal of its remaining military forces from Yemen on December 31, 2025. This withdrawal marks the end of the UAE’s distinct “southern strategy” on the Yemeni mainland, forcing it to pivot to offshore assets like Socotra and Somaliland.

The Red Sea “Insurance Wall”

* The Event: The disintegration of the Saudi-UAE coalition and the expulsion of UAE forces from Somalia has removed a key layer of maritime security in the Gulf of Aden.

* The Impact: War risk insurance premiums for Red Sea transit have spiked to 1.0% of hull value (up from 0.2% post-ceasefire), a prohibitive cost for most commercial shipping.

* Supply Chain Consequence: This effectively closes the Suez route to all but the most heavily subsidized state-owned vessels. Commercial traffic is being forced around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days to transit times. This absorbs global tanker capacity, tightening the market for oil and LNG transport and driving up freight rates for bulk mineral shipments from East Africa.

Saudi-backed forces spread across Yemen’s Mukalla on Sunday after retaking the port city which was seized by southern separatists last month.

The capital of Hadramout province was retaken by Yemen’s internationally recognized government following days of Saudi airstrikes.

Video footage obtained by The Associated Press showed the Saudi-backed National Shield Forces being welcomed by residents as the troops drove through streets in armed vehicles. Forces were also seen driving around and outside Mukalla’s al-Rayyan Airport.

(timesofisrael.com)

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The Horn of Africa: The Somalia-UAE Rupture and the Red Sea “Game of Bases”

The conflict in Yemen has spilled directly across the Gulf of Aden, shattering the alliance structure in the Horn of Africa. The UAE’s desperate extraction of al-Zubaidi violated Somali sovereignty, triggering a diplomatic nuclear event that reorders the region’s military geography.

Somalia Expels the UAE: The “Bosaso Evacuation”

On January 12, 2026, the Somali Council of Ministers voted to terminate all security and defense agreements with the United Arab Emirates. This decision, cited as a response to “hostile acts” undermining sovereignty, is a direct retaliation for the UAE’s unauthorized use of Somali airspace and territory to extract the Yemeni separatist leader.

The Expulsion Order Includes:

* Base Closures: The immediate eviction of UAE military trainers and intelligence personnel from the General Gordon training camp in Mogadishu and the strategic airbase in Bosaso (Puntland).

* Port Cancellations: The nullification of DP World’s concessions for the ports of Berbera (Somaliland) and Bosaso, declaring the original deals illegal and void under federal law.

* Airspace Denial: A ban on all UAE military and cargo aircraft from entering Somali airspace.

Operational Impact: Intelligence reports confirm a hurried, chaotic evacuation is underway at the Bosaso airbase. An average of six Ilyushin IL-76 cargo aircraft per day are landing and taking off, stripping the base of heavy military equipment, armored vehicles, and surveillance assets. These assets are reportedly being relocated to neighboring Ethiopia, signaling a shift in the UAE’s regional basing strategy.

The Somali government has cancelled security and defense agreements with the UAE linked to several key ports, citing alleged breaches of the country’s sovereignty, national unity, and political independence, the prime minister’s office said in a statement on Monday, Anadolu reports.

The decision was based on “reports and strong evidence regarding wrongful actions that undermine the sovereignty, national unity, and political independence” of Somalia, the statement said.

In a statement on Thursday, Al-Maliki accused Abu Dhabi of facilitating al-Zubaidi’s exit through Somali territory, saying he boarded a flight carrying “those accompanying him, under the supervision of UAE officers.”

(middleeastmonitor.com)

The Israel-Somaliland Nexus: A New Front Against Iran?

Compounding the regional volatility is Israel’s unprecedented recognition of Somaliland as an independent state in late December 2025. As of January 13, 2026, the strategic rationale behind this move has been laid bare by officials in Hargeisa.

The “Base for Recognition” Deal:

* Military Access: Somaliland Foreign Ministry official Deqa Qasim confirmed that discussions are underway to allow Israel to establish a military base on Somaliland’s coast, overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb strait.

* Strategic Calculus: For Israel, a base in Berbera or Zeila offers a critical flank against the Houthis. It places Israeli offensive assets within 45 minutes of Houthi launch sites in Yemen, compared to the hours of flight time required from Eilat. This effectively breaks the Houthi naval blockade by establishing a forward operating position south of the choke point.

* The “Transfer” Rumor: Persistent intelligence reports, cited by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud but denied by Somaliland, suggest the deal includes a secret provision for the resettlement of displaced Palestinians from Gaza to Somaliland. This allegation has inflamed anti-Israel sentiment across the Horn and drawn condemnation from the Arab League.

“One also needs to look at more distant circles, such as Iran, for example. The range shortens significantly when you are in Somaliland. If you have a logistical base there where you can treat vessels, arm them, refuel them, and resupply them, this is a very significant event that can influence all the naval power dynamics in the arena. Therefore, I think this can develop into a strategic event,” he said.

(jns.org)

An official in Somaliland on Thursday told Israeli media that ties with Jerusalem have led to discussions on potentially setting up an Israeli military base in the African self-ruled territory.

Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia that Israel recently recognized as a state — the first country to do so — has previously denied Somali accusations that the relations include “the resettlement of Palestinians or the establishment of military bases in Somaliland.”

(timesofisrael.com)

Somalia’s defense minister, Ahmed Moalim Fiqi, has alleged that Israel is working on a plan to forcibly relocate Palestinians to Somaliland, calling the reported move a serious violation of international law. Speaking to Al Jazeera on Saturday, Fiqi claimed that Somalia had “confirmed information” that Israel planned to transfer Palestinians to Somaliland, the self-declared breakaway region in northwestern Somalia.

(timesofindia.indiatimes.com)

Sudan: The War on Infrastructure and the Return to Khartoum

While the Horn fractures, the Sudanese civil war has escalated into a campaign of infrastructure annihilation and resource denial.

* The Return to Khartoum: On January 11, 2026, the SAF-backed government announced its official return to Khartoum after operating from Port Sudan for nearly three years. This move is symbolic, aiming to project legitimacy and control.

* RSF “Total War”: In retaliation, the RSF has launched swarm drone attacks on critical infrastructure. On January 5, suicide drones targeted the Merowe Dam, Sudan’s largest hydroelectric facility. A breach of this dam would be a catastrophic WMD-level event, flooding the Nile valley and cutting power to millions. Drone strikes also hit a military base in Sinjah, killing 27 people.

* The Heglig Oil Trap: The RSF has captured the Heglig oil field, Sudan’s economic lung. However, in a bizarre twist of “war economics,” a tripartite deal involving South Sudan (which relies on the pipeline for 98% of its revenue) has led to the deployment of South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) to “neutralize” and guard the facility. This creates a scenario where a foreign army is protecting Sudan’s most critical asset from its own rebels to ensure the oil keeps flowing.

Sudanese Prime Minister Kamil Idris on Sunday announced the return of the government to the capital, Khartoum, for the first time since the outbreak of war on April 15, 2023, after nearly three years of running state affairs from the eastern city of Port Sudan.

“The government has returned to the national capital,” Idris said in a speech to a crowd following his arrival in Bahri, north of Khartoum.

The prime minister added that 2026 would be “the year of peace in Sudan,” pointing to plans for reconstruction and development, as well as efforts to improve the economic situation by increasing gross national product, reducing inflation, and stabilizing the exchange rate of the national currency.

(english.news.cn)

In Sudan, the UAE-backed paramilitary Rapid Support Forces launched a drone strike on a Sudanese army base in the southeastern city of Sinjah on Monday. Twenty-seven people were reportedly killed. The attack came a day after Sudan’s military-led government returned to the country’s capital Khartoum after operating in the eastern city of Port Sudan for nearly three years.

(democracynow.org)

South Sudan’s army began deploying to secure the Heglig oilfield on Wednesday following a three-way deal between Juba and Sudan’s warring factions to protect vital energy infrastructure.

The deployment follows the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces’ (RSF) seizure of the strategic town on Dec. 8, which forced the Sudanese army to abandon its defensive positions and withdraw across the border into South Sudan, where troops were disarmed.

Heglig houses a central processing facility for 130,000 barrels per day (bpd) of South Sudanese oil, which is exported through Sudan. The area also includes Block 6, Sudan’s largest producing field.

(sudantribune.com)

The DRC “Coltan Cutoff” and M23’s Mineral Empire

* The Event: Despite the recent peace accords, the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group has consolidated control over the Rubaya mining district and the strategic transit hub of Uvira.

* The Resource: Rubaya is a primary global source of coltan (tantalum), essential for capacitors in every smartphone and laptop on the planet.

* The Disruption: The DRC government has imposed a “red status” ban on 38 mining sites in the Kivu provinces to curb rebel funding. However, M23 is bypassing this by smuggling ore directly into Rwanda, where it is laundered into the global supply chain.

* Impact: This bifurcates the market. “Clean” tantalum compliant with ESG standards is becoming scarce, driving up spot prices by an estimated 15-20%. Meanwhile, “conflict tantalum” floods the grey market, creating compliance nightmares for Western tech giants like Apple and Tesla who must verify their supply chains are not funding the M23 insurgency.

The Democratic Republic of Congo’s government has extended a “red status” designation on 38 mining sites in the conflict-affected North and South Kivu provinces for six months.

This has fueled smuggling operations. A July 2025 UN Group of Experts report documented that conflict minerals from M23-controlled areas are systematically mixed with Rwandan production before export. The report estimated approximately 686 tons of minerals had been smuggled out of the region since January 2025.

(ecofinagency.com)

According to the United Nations, coltan trade from the M23-controlled Rubaya mining site is estimated to supply over 15 percent of global tantalum production, and generates an estimated $300,000 in revenue per month to the armed group. At least 150 tons of coltan were fraudulently exported to Rwanda and mixed with Rwandan production.

(business-humanrights.org)

Predictive Outlook

* Short-Term Outlook (Next 30 Days)

* Iran: The regime will survive the immediate protest wave, but only through a “saturation of violence” that may see the death toll exceed 25,000. Expect a rapid transition to a naked military dictatorship openly run by the IRGC, with the clerical establishment sidelined to maintain order.

* Yemen: The STC as a political project is finished. Saudi Arabia will ruthlessly consolidate control over South Yemen via the PLC and Nation Shield Forces. The UAE, having lost its foothold on the mainland, will double down on its offshore strategy, fortifying its presence in Somaliland and Socotra in coordination with Israel.

Long-Term Outlook (Q2-Q3 2026)

* The “Red Sea Alliance”: The expulsion of the UAE from Somalia creates a vacuum that will be filled by a new axis. Expect the formation of a Saudi Arabia - Turkey - Somalia - Egypt bloc, united by opposition to UAE influence. This will be countered by a UAE - Ethiopia - Somaliland - Israel axis. This bipolar rivalry will define the next phase of conflict in the Horn of Africa, with Somaliland becoming the primary flashpoint for a proxy war.

My Thoughts…

We are looking at a major shake-up in the Middle East; no matter which way you look at it, things are in motion that cannot be stopped. The situation in Iran is entering a terminal phase. The Iatolla and the IRGC have resorted to a total crackdown and unrestrained use of military force to attempt to quell protests. Over ten thousand dead, and unfortunately, that number is probably much higher and will continue to climb. The United States, as anticipated, will intervene. Steve Witkoff was reported by reuters meeting with the exiled son of the previous Shah, Reza Pahlavi. This suggests that the United States is planning to attempt to initiate regime change. Trump’s recent statements confirm what I suspected based on troop movements over the last week. The operation to be carried out by those forces is still in question, but the arrival of Reza Pahlavi on the scene leads me to consider that it would be to capture or kill the Iranian/Iatolla leadership.

The Mobarizoun Popular Front (MPF) presents a level of complexity to the situation; they are well-positioned to gain rapid popular support as they fight security forces, especially if the levels of casualties are as high as reports suggest. The environment itself could see its numbers swell as young people in particular attempt to organize to combat regime-backed forces trying to stomp out resistance.

Iranian leadership has resorted to its last measure: kill them all, break their will to fight. I do not think it will work. I also do not think that US involvement will improve the situation. The fallout of this rebellion will be just as complex as its catalyst, as foreign interests attempt to install favorable parties into leadership. Control over the Straight of Hormuz is one of the most significant geopolitical cards to hold. This card would be invaluable to the United States as it competes with China in the global economy.

The overall regional situation is rife with fracturing relationships; Israel, in particular, will be making some big moves in 2026. The relationship with Somaliland is a bellwether; it is absolutely likely that Israel intends to use this breakaway region to remove Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank. The intent to build the Gaza Riviera remains; nothing has changed. The issue has been how to remove the people, if a legitimate nation would not take them… the new plan, it appears from Israel, is to recognize a new country and move them there.

Additionally, this deal with Somaliland changes Israel’s ability to project power across the Red Sea. Connections between the UAE, Israel, and Somaliland are mounting, and I think that we may be seeing the alignment of new coalitions in the region.

Military bases in Somaliland would allow Israel more autonomy to strike the Houthis in Yemen and even into Iran itself. Whatever happens after the events currently unfolding, Israel is likely to claim terror groups are active in the region and begin a campaign within Iran itself, if the situation allows.

Sudan and the DRC are both seeing escalations in violence. As the situation in Yemen sours for the UAE, I believe we will see an uptick in support for RSF forces in Sudan as they attempt to capitalize on a struggling Sudanese government. It is highly unlikely that Sudanese forces will be able to reclaim any significant territory claimed by the RSF. The RSF is also evolving, using asymmetrical drone warfare and targeting civilian infrastructure. With UAE support, they can rapidly surpass government-backed forces, and we could even see a renewed offensive if this new strategy succeeds. The UAE intends to make good on its investment in Sudan, and, clearly, there is concern over whether key economic functions, such as the Heglig Oil Field, will be able to operate.

The situation in the DRC is not dissimilar; M23 has effectively taken control over Rubaya and the Uvira trade corridor. This means that they are in a position to secure funding and have significant geopolitical leverage. The supply of Coltan and other rare minerals from the region is integral to the global industry. M23 and, ultimately, Rwanda by proxy control 15% of the global supply of this critical metal.

This means that no matter what, stolen territory or not… someone will buy it. This positions M23 to gain access to significant capital and resources; its close ties to Rwanda allow it to export its Coltan by mixing it with Rwandan exports. A stronger, better-funded, and better-supplied M23 presents a threat to the entirety of the DRC, and I anticipate a renewed offensive to gain control over more critical minerals and mining areas in 2026.

Thank you for reading.

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Coming into this week, I expect we will see some major shakeups on the global stage. Shaky peace deals cling on all over the globe. While ceasefires that arent aren’t numerous, the situation in Iran has escalated from protests to a full-scale uprising, and US rhetoric suggests that US intervention is in the cards. Considering the tracking of elite US assets toward Kuwait Staging grounds and US airbases in Saudi Arabia, this rhetoric, in tandem with the recent relocation of elite 160th SOAR forces, makes me worried, to say the least. Despite a stock market that keeps posting record gains, the real economy is looking worse and worse for the average American, signalling a financial trying 2026, to say the least.

A recent deal in Ukraine has escaped the public eye; this deal may have major consequences. A mining company associated with a strong Trump ally appears to have won bidding for access to one of the richest Lithium deposits in the world, as well as other critical metals and minerals in the Donbas in Ukraine. Europe is taking a harder stance on Greenland, as the US continues to state aggressively that it plans to take the independently governed territory of the Danish Kingdom.

Finally, Canada has made major changes in its economic strategy over the course of 2025, and going into 2026, the country is diversifying away from the United States. Moving closer to competitors like China and entering into trade agreements with the EU to mitigate the financial stress of dealing with a chaotic, abusive, and unreliable trade partner, which is the United States.

The Lith-Politics of the Ukrainian Front: The TechMet-Dobra Paradigm

The awarding of the Dobra lithium deposit rights represents a seminal moment in the evolution of the US-Ukraine relationship, marking the transition from a partnership based on shared democratic values to one explicitly anchored in resource extraction and financial integration with the US executive branch’s inner circle. This development cannot be analyzed in a vacuum; it must be contextualized alongside the nearly simultaneous kinetic enforcement of sanctions against Russian energy assets in the North Atlantic. The synchronization of these events suggests a coordinated strategy: securing the inputs for the US energy transition while physically interdicting the revenue of geopolitical adversaries.

The TechMet-Dobra Deal: Privatizing Geopolitical Insurance

On January 8, 2026, a Ukrainian government commission selected a consortium led by TechMet and Ronald S. Lauder to develop the Dobra lithium deposit in Kirovohrad Oblast. This decision, while technically awaiting formal Cabinet of Ministers approval, has been described by officials as “essentially sealed”. The specific composition of the winning consortium and the timing of the award reveal a sophisticated geopolitical calculation by Kyiv.

Consortium Composition and Political Alignment

The consortium is not merely a commercial entity; it is a geopolitical instrument designed to align Ukrainian survival with the specific interests of the current US administration.

* TechMet: This energy investment company is partially owned by the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC). The DFC, a government agency established during Donald Trump’s first term, holds a significant equity stake in TechMet. By awarding the contract to TechMet, Kyiv has effectively made the US government a direct shareholder in the project, thereby raising the cost of any potential US withdrawal of support for Ukraine.

* Ronald S. Lauder: The inclusion of billionaire Ronald Lauder, an heir to the Estée Lauder cosmetics fortune, provides a direct personal link to the US President. Lauder has known President Trump since college and is a prominent donor to the Republican Party. Crucially, intelligence indicates that Lauder was the figure who originally suggested the purchase of Greenland to President Trump during his first term—a fact that creates a thematic resonance with current escalations in the Arctic (see Section IV).

Asset Valuation and Strategic Centrality

The Dobra deposit is widely considered one of the largest undeveloped lithium fields in Europe, a critical asset in the global race for battery dominance.

* Mineral Composition: The site contains estimated reserves of 80-105 million metric tons of lithium ore. Beyond lithium, the deposit is rich in other critical minerals essential for defense and high-tech applications, including tantalum, niobium, rubidium, beryllium, tin, cesium, and tungsten.

* Production Sharing Agreement (PSA): The deal is structured as a PSA, a mechanism where investors finance and execute extraction in exchange for a share of the output. This structure is critical because, under the broader US-Ukraine Minerals Agreement signed on April 30, 2025, half of the revenue Ukraine generates from this deposit is mandated to flow into a joint US-Ukraine Reconstruction Fund. This fund, managed jointly by the DFC and Ukraine, effectively locks the US into Ukraine’s long-term economic recovery, creating a financial “tripwire” against abandonment.

Ukraine has selected a consortium led by TechMet, an energy company co-owned by a US government investment agency established during Donald Trump’s first term, as the winner of a tender for a production-sharing agreement covering a lithium site in Kirovohrad Oblast in central Ukraine.

The site, known as the Dobra lithium field, is one of Ukraine’s largest reserves of lithium, which is a key component in technologies such as electric batteries.

(pravda.com.ua)

The consortium of investors awarded the bid includes TechMet, a mining company backed by the U.S. government, and billionaire Ronald S. Lauder, a close associate of U.S. President Donald Trump.

(kyivindependent.com)

The 1,706.9-hectare deposit is located in the Novoukrainka district near the villages of Novostankuvata and Ternove. Its primary resource is lithium ore, with associated minerals including tantalum, niobium, rubidium, beryllium, tin, cesium, tungsten, and gold. Lithium reserves are estimated at more than 1.2 million tons, alongside identified resources of other rare metals.

(inventure.com.ua)

The “Transactional” Timeline

The sequence of events leading to this award demonstrates the rapid acceleration of the “minerals-for-security” model:

* April 30, 2025: The US and Ukraine sign the foundational critical minerals agreement, establishing the legal framework for US priority access to Ukrainian resources.

* August 2025: Kyiv officially launches the tender for the Dobra site, signaling its readiness to operationalize the agreement.

* January 7, 2026: US forces seize the Russian tanker Marinera in the North Atlantic (see Section 2.2), demonstrating kinetic commitment to isolating Russia.

* January 8, 2026: The Ukrainian commission selects the TechMet/Lauder consortium, cementing the economic pillar of the alliance one day after the military demonstration.

The Seizure of the Marinera: Kinetic Blockade Enforcement

Parallel to the economic integration of Ukraine into the US sphere, the US military executed a high-risk interdiction operation against Russian energy assets, signaling a shift from passive sanctions to active, kinetic blockade enforcement. The seizure of the Marinera (formerly Bella 1) creates a new legal and military precedent in the Atlantic theater.

The Bella 1, renamed recently as the Marinera, was seized by the United States on January 7, 2026 in the North Atlantic. In December 2025 the U.S. Coast Guard attempted to intercept and seize the Bella 1, a sanctioned oil tanker, as it was heading to Venezuela to pick up a load of crude oil and possibly drop off cargo.

(sof.news)

The Iranian Tipping Point: Revolution, Repression, and the “Will to Peace”

The internal stability of the Islamic Republic of Iran has degraded significantly over the weekend of January 10-11, 2026. What began as economic protests has mutated into a pre-revolutionary state, characterized by lethal violence, internet blackouts, and the emergence of armed insurgency. Conversely, the regime is attempting to project strength abroad through naval exercises, creating a jarring dissonance between its domestic fragility and its geopolitical posturing.

Status of the Uprising: From Riot to Revolution

The protests, initially sparked by a currency collapse and economic mismanagement, have entered their third week and have spread to over 190 cities. The situation has escalated beyond civil disobedience into open conflict.

* Casualty Metrics: As of January 12, 2026, human rights organizations report a death toll ranging from 530 to 572 protesters. The number of detained individuals has exceeded 10,000. Reports from inside the country indicate that security forces are using live ammunition, and the death toll is likely higher due to the information blockade.

* Regime Tactics: The Iranian state has shifted its rhetorical and legal framework, now labeling protesters as “terrorists” rather than “rioters.” This distinction is critical; under Iranian law, “moharebeh” (waging war against God) carries the death penalty and authorizes the use of heavy weaponry by security forces. A near-total internet blackout has been imposed to mask the scale of the crackdown.

* Armed Insurgency: A significant development is the activation of armed groups in the periphery. The “Mobarizoun Popular Front” (MPF) in Sistan and Baluchistan province has claimed responsibility for ambushes against Law Enforcement Command (LEC) officers, killing at least one officer and injuring others on January 11. This indicates a shift from unarmed protest to armed insurgency in Iran’s border regions.

Mass protests in Iran, ongoing for two weeks, have escalated into a large-scale uprising capable of overthrowing the Islamic Republic. As of January 12, 2026, the situation has reached a critical point: according to human rights organizations, more than 530 protesters have been killed during violent crackdowns, and the number of arrested individuals has exceeded 10,000. Analysts claim that the success of this revolution will be the most significant event since 1979, radically changing global geopolitics and energy security.

The main factor behind the popular anger was a complete economic collapse and a record currency crisis. Currently, protests have engulfed the entire country of 90 million people - from the capital Tehran to remote provinces. The authorities are trying to suppress the resistance by blocking internet and telephone communications to hide the scale of corruption and repression, but the demonstrations are only intensifying.

(unn.ua)

The main factor behind the popular anger was a complete economic collapse and a record currency crisis. Currently, protests have engulfed the entire country of 90 million people - from the capital Tehran to remote provinces. The authorities are trying to suppress the resistance by blocking internet and telephone communications to hide the scale of corruption and repression, but the demonstrations are only intensifying.

(understandingwar.org)

Iranian Regime Rhetoric about the Protests: Some Iranian regime officials have framed the ongoing protests as the next phase of the Israel-Iran War. The Iranian security establishment has repeatedly stressed since June 2025 that it believes that the Israel-Iran War is ongoing, despite the fact that the 12-day military conflict ended in June.

Iranian Security Personnel Deaths: More Iranian security officers have died during the current protests than in any other protest wave in Iran. IRGC-affiliated media reported on January 11 that at least 114 regime security personnel from the Law Enforcement Command (LEC), Basij, and IRGC have been killed since the start of the protests on December 28. The actual death count for Iranian security personnel is likely higher than the number that IRGC-affiliated media reported, given that CTP-ISW has observed reports of security personnel casualties in areas, such as Tehran Province, that IRGC-affiliated media did not include in its death count.

(understandingwar.org)

The Threat of External Intervention

The US response to the Iranian crisis has escalated from diplomatic condemnation to explicit military threats, raising the specter of direct conflict.

* Presidential Warning: President Trump has issued a stern warning to Tehran, stating he is ready to “strike” the Islamic Republic if the crackdown continues. He has publicly declared that the US “stands ready to help” the protesters, rhetoric that Tehran views as a prelude to regime change operations.

* Military Options: US officials have confirmed to major media outlets that “preliminary discussions” regarding airstrikes on Iranian military sites are underway. While no final decision has been made, the Pentagon is reviewing “strong options” to support the uprising.

* Regime Counter-Threats: In response, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned on January 11 that US bases in the region and the state of Israel would be “legitimate targets” if the US intervenes. This threat of horizontal escalation—striking US allies to deter US action—creates a highly volatile security environment in the Persian Gulf.

* Diplomatic Channels: Despite the bellicose rhetoric, the Omani Foreign Minister visited Tehran over the weekend. Oman traditionally serves as the intermediary between Washington and Tehran, suggesting that back-channel negotiations are attempting to de-escalate the situation before kinetic action becomes inevitable.

Iranian Threat to Attack US Forces: Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned the United States against “miscalculations” on January 11 and threatened that Iran could target US military bases in the region or Israel if the United States attacks Iran. Ghalibaf’s threat is likely a response to recent Western media reports that US President Donald Trump is considering various options to intervene in the ongoing protests.

(understandingwar.org)

“The military is looking at it, and we’re looking at some very strong options,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday night. Asked about Iran’s threats of retaliation, he said: “If they do that, we will hit them at levels that they’ve never been hit before.”

(pbs.org)

The Arctic Sovereign Crisis: Greenland, NATO’s Fragmentation, and the “20-Day” Deadline

The diplomatic dispute over the status of Greenland has metastasized into perhaps the most severe crisis in the history of the NATO alliance. The US administration’s renewed and aggressive push to acquire the territory—framed as a national security imperative—has moved beyond rhetoric to specific deadlines and implied military threats, triggering a defensive mobilization by European powers against their own principal ally.

The US Ultimatum: “Let’s Talk in 20 Days”

On Sunday, January 11, 2026, President Trump issued a de facto deadline regarding the territory, telling reporters, “Let’s talk about Greenland in 20 days”. This statement effectively starts a countdown clock, creating immense pressure on Copenhagen and Nuuk.

* The Justification: The White House has framed the acquisition of Greenland not as a real estate deal, but as a critical national security necessity. Spokespersons argue that Greenland is “covered with Russian and Chinese ships,” a claim that Danish intelligence and Arctic experts dispute. The US administration views control of the GIUK Gap and the Arctic approaches as vital to deterring adversaries in the next phase of great power competition.

* The Methodology: The administration is reportedly exploring a range of options. These include an outright purchase (with discussions of direct payouts to Greenlandic residents ranging from $10,000 to $100,000 to bypass Copenhagen) or a “Compact of Free Association.” However, the threat of force remains the stick behind the carrot: White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt explicitly stated that “utilizing the US military is always an option at the commander-in-chief’s disposal”.

The European Response: Article 5 in Reverse?

The European reaction has been unprecedented, effectively inverting the logic of the NATO alliance. Instead of mobilizing to defend against the East, European powers are mobilizing to deter an acquisition by the West.

* Denmark’s Position: Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has been categorical in her rejection of the US demands. She stated, “If the United States chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops... including NATO.” She termed the crisis a “fateful moment” and a “crossroads” for the alliance.

* European Mobilization: Intelligence reports indicate that the United Kingdom, Germany, and France are in active discussions regarding the deployment of NATO troops to Greenland to deter a US move. This scenario would effectively place European NATO troops in a position to block or deter US forces—a situation that would shatter the alliance’s command structure.

* Verification Note: While some stakeholders have dismissed these reports as rumors, neither the UK Ministry of Defence nor the German government has issued categorical denials of the discussions. “Stakeholders” in the region have confirmed that such contingencies are being briefed.

* Sanctions Threat: In a further escalation, the European Union is reportedly preparing a sanctions package targeting US technology giants (Google, Meta, Microsoft) and financial institutions if the US proceeds with aggressive action against Greenland.

Ground Truth: The “Trojan Horse” Dynamic

The situation is complicated by the existing US military footprint on the island.

* Pituffik Space Base: The US already maintains the Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule) in northern Greenland. This installation is critical for missile warning and space surveillance. The presence of US troops inside the territory they threaten to “acquire” creates a “Trojan Horse” dynamic. US forces do not need to invade; they are already there. This reality complicates any potential European deployment, as it would require operating in close proximity to US forces in a non-permissive political environment.

The Danish leader, together with Greenland’s prime minister, has firmly rejected Trump’s renewed call for the island to come under U.S. control. Trump has argued the U.S. needs to control Greenland to ensure it security in the face of rising threats from China and Russia in the Arctic.

“It’s so strategic right now,” he told reporters Sunday.

“Greenland is covered with Russian and Chinese ships all over the place,” Trump said. “We need Greenland from the standpoint of national security, and Denmark is not going to be able to do it.”

(wuft.org)

Trump’s officials have discussed sending payments to Greenlanders – ranging from $10,000 to $100,000 per person – according to a Reuters report, in a bid to convince them to secede from Denmark and potentially join Washington.

But Greenland is also home to mineral riches, including rare earths. According to a 2023 survey, 25 of 34 minerals deemed “critical raw materials” by the European Commission were found in Greenland. Scientists believe the island could also have significant oil and gas reserves.

(aljazeera.com)

The United Kingdom is in talks with France and Germany about the possible deployment of NATO troops in Greenland, The Telegraph reports, citing sources.

According to the publication, military leaders of the European countries are discussing a mission plan that would involve the presence of troops, ships, and aircraft on the island. The plans are still in the early stages.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer, according to sources, has taken the threat “extremely seriously” and supported the need for measures. European countries hope that the NATO troop deployment will convince U.S. President Donald Trump to abandon the idea of annexing the island.

At the same time, the European Union is preparing a sanctions package against U.S. tech companies Google, X, Microsoft, and Meta, as well as several banks. The restrictions could be imposed if Trump rejects the NATO mission proposal in Greenland.

(caliber.az)

However, what is not clear is why Washington needs full control over Greenland to defend itself. The US already has a presence there at Pituffik Space Base, a US Space Force installation that has been in operation since 1943.

A 1951 US–Denmark defence agreement allows the US to continue to use the base, which hosts the 12th Space Warning Squadron, a team operating US ballistic missile early warning systems, as well as a team looking after part of the US’s global satellite network. The base has an active airfield and the northernmost deep-water port, making it a useful infrastructure hub.

(chathamhouse.org)

Canada’s Strategic Pivot: The Carney Doctrine and the China Hedge

Faced with the collapse of stable relations with the United States—driven by aggressive tariffs, “51st state” rhetoric, and the unpredictability of the current administration—Canada is executing a radical foreign policy pivot under Prime Minister Mark Carney. This shift, dubbed the “Carney Doctrine,” seeks to replace dependence on the US with a diversified portfolio of trade relationships, with China as the cornerstone.

The Beijing Visit (Jan 13-17, 2026)

Prime Minister Carney is scheduled to arrive in Beijing on Tuesday, January 13, for a five-day state visit. This is the first official visit by a Canadian Prime Minister to China in nearly a decade, signaling a thaw in relations that were frozen following the Huawei/Meng Wanzhou affair.

* Strategic Objectives: The stated goal of the visit is to “strengthen cooperation in trade, energy, agriculture, and international security.” Carney intends to meet with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang to formalize this new alignment.

* The “Carney Doctrine”: Carney has explicitly stated to the Canadian public that “the old relationship with the United States... is over.” His strategy is to double Canada’s non-US exports within a decade. To facilitate this, his government has announced a $5 billion “Trade Diversification Corridor Fund” to build the port, rail, and transport infrastructure necessary to move Canadian goods to non-US markets.

Specific Deliverables: The EV-Canola “Grand Bargain”

The centerpiece of the visit is expected to be a resolution to the ongoing trade war between Ottawa and Beijing.

* The Dispute: In 2024, Canada imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) and a 25% tariff on steel/aluminum, mirroring US policy. In retaliation, China imposed a 76% tariff on Canadian canola and restrictions on beef and pork.

* The Deal: Negotiations are advanced on a “grand bargain.” Canada is expected to drop or significantly reduce the tariffs on Chinese EVs in exchange for China lifting the blockade on Canadian canola. This move would directly contravene US desires to present a united North American front against Chinese industrial overcapacity.

* Strategic Partnership: While experts warn against a formal “strategic partnership,” Carney is seeking a pragmatic “coexistence” framework. The visit is framed as a “turning point” in the relationship.

Domestic Implications and Public Opinion

* Public Support: Remarkably, Canadian public opinion has shifted to support this pivot. A Global News/Ipsos poll released over the weekend shows that 54% of Canadians now support closer trade ties with China. This reversal is driven largely by the perception of the US as a “huge bully” and an unreliable partner under President Trump.

* Risk Assessment: The Eurasia Group warns that no country is more at risk from US political turmoil than Canada. Carney’s pivot is a high-stakes hedge. If successful, it insulates Canada from US protectionism. If it fails, or if it provokes further US retaliation, Canada could face accelerated tariffs on its “Core 5” sectors: autos, steel, lumber, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors.

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney will visit Beijing next week, marking the first trip by a Canadian head of state to China in nearly a decade.

Carney will visit from January 13 to 17. He plans to discuss trade, energy, agriculture and international security with Chinese officials, his office said.

Carney was formally invited to China after meeting with President Xi Jinping in South Korea in October. The trip marks a significant reset in relations between Canada and China, which have been locked in a trade dispute since 2024.

(the-star.co.ke)

From Official Canadian Liberal Party Press Release (March 28th, 2025)

We will inject $5 billion into a new Trade Diversification Corridor Fund, to build the infrastructure that will help diversify our trade partners, create good jobs and drive economic growth. This fund will accelerate nation-building projects at ports, railroads, inland terminals, airports, and highways. This will build one Canadian economy and diversify our trade away from the United States.

Authorize Canadian ports to cooperate instead of compete, in order to maximize efficiencies by leveraging comparative advantages.

Strengthen the security of our ports to stop the flow of drugs such as fentanyl and its precursors, as well as illegal guns and stolen autos.

(liberal.ca)

Success will depend on whether Prime Minister Carney can strike a difficult balance: seizing economic opportunities—especially in the energy sector—while at the same time protecting Canada’s national and economic security.

He also has to manage competing domestic interests, from Ontario’s auto sector to Saskatchewan’s canola producers, while keeping a close eye on how any deals with Beijing could affect Canada’s relationship with the United States and upcoming CUSMA negotiations.

(asiapacific.ca)

As Prime Minister Mark Carney prepares to travel to China and seeks to restore trade and diplomatic ties, a small majority of Canadians say they support more trade with Beijing, a new poll suggests.

The Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News, released Saturday, found that 54 per cent expressed support for closer trade ties and economic agreements with China.

(globalnews.ca)

Predictive Outlook

(Short-Term: 30 Days)

* Greenland Crisis: The “20-day” deadline (expiring approx. Jan 31) will likely result in a US financial “shock and awe” offer to the Greenlandic parliament (Nuuk), bypassing Copenhagen. If Nuuk engages, Denmark will face a constitutional crisis. European troop deployments will likely remain at the “discussion” phase to avoid a kinetic accident, but intelligence sharing between EU capitals and Nuuk will spike to counter US influence operations.

* Iran: The regime will survive the current wave of protests through brute force, with the death toll likely exceeding 1,000. The “Will to Peace” exercises may result in a minor naval incident or “unsafe intercept” with US forces, which Tehran will use to justify martial law and further crackdown.

* Canada-US Trade War: Following Carney’s expected announcement of a trade deal with Beijing (Jan 17-18), the US will likely retaliate within 48 hours. Expect new tariffs on Canadian steel or aluminum under Section 232, citing “national security” concerns over Chinese transshipment.

My Thoughts…

This report covers the key pressure points I expect to dominate this week. The business dealings between Ukraine and the US are significant. The ultimate goal in Ukraine for the Trump regime was to gain access to its abundance of critical resources to mitigate Chinese dominance over supply. Lithium is in high demand because it is used in everything that needs a battery. The lithium in Ukraine has a particular quality that enables rapid refining and higher-quality products.

The official deal could see a pivot to a new level of support for Ukraine from the United States, this deal is highly transactional and the Dobra deposit is located not to far away from the front lines, peace deals with Russia were focused on accessing these resources, so ultimately if Russia threatens these resources now made available by Ukraine that is a threat to US interests.

The seizure of the shadow fleet oil tanker, the Marinera, happened precisely one day before Ukraine awarded the contract to Tech Met. This seizure reads to me like a show of goodwill. The regime operates on a quid pro quo basis, and Ukraine may be posturing to leverage US financial entanglement to secure US support.

Iran is facing a critical point, popular uprising is in full swing. US negotiations with Iran will likely see the US try to gain access to assets they want in the country through dialogue, or they are merely a cover to justify military action after the United States declares that diplomatic measures have failed. We have already established that US 160th SOAR forces are being repositioned and likely headed to the region as we speak. The Iranian government appears to be running out of means to suppress protestors, and the likelihood of stabilization is appearing highly unlikely at this time. As the situation continues to spiral, the conditions for US and Israeli involvement will be met, and I believe that the opportunity will be too good to pass up.

Whether the ultimate goal is to gain access to Iranian production capacity, Uranium, or even to control the Strait of Hormuz. A vital trade artery for Oil across the world will provide enough incentive for military involvement.

The tension over Greenland is a major point of geopolitical tension, Trumps issuance of a 20-day deadline reads like a return to the TACO. Even so, this threat is so massive that the European and NATO response must be as strong as possible. The statements of Intent from Denmark and the EU appear to have gained Greenland some breathing room; the only effective deterrent from US occupation, in my opinion, is the presence of troops and the threat of an armed response.

Preparing a Sanctions package is also a smart move. The United States is run by a Billionaire regime, and those billionaires happen to run corporations like META, Google, and Microsoft. This shows that they know who is really behind the curtain, and targeted sanctions against a struggling US economy will likely serve as a functional deterrent for the time being. However, Troops must be sent to Greenland to provide long-term security guarantees.

Finally, the meeting between Carney and Xi is of particular interest to me. An agreement between Canada and China would make waves in the geopolitical landscape. In particular, the economy faces difficulties in acquiring oil due to US military intervention against Venezuela and Iran, and the severe reduction of Russian refining and production capacity due to Ukrainian strikes. The US is attempting to leverage its command over Oil supply to pressure China to lift controls on key inputs for its defense and tech industries.

If China were to make a deal with Canada to import Canadian crude, it would undermine this strategy in its entirety. Canadian Oil exporters have already demonstrated the capacity to do this, as successful exports of Canadian Crude to South Korea started in 2025. I believe this would be a tremendous blow to the US strategy on the global stage. Beyond that, Canada’s deepening ties with the United States primary adversary signal the finality of the disconnect between the United States and Canada.

At this point in time, China has yet to impose controls or take any other economic measures in response to the United States' actions against Venezuela, and, in turn, has not effectively blocked or prevented the export of Venezuelan crude to China.

It is possible that the reaction will take the form of an economic agreement between Canada and China that makes the United States much less relevant to shaping the Canadian economy, thereby reducing leverage. This, I think, is the primary goal of Canada’s new trade strategy under Carney, and I think it has a promising outlook.

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Firebrands and new readers alike,

As the week comes to an end, we have seen an explosive start to 2026. Unfortunately, that statement is a literal one… The kick off a new world order has occurred with stunning speed; these events have offered us clarity into how the rest of the year will unfold. Resource annexation, fluid sovereignty, and kinetic mercantilism. The situation in Iran is looking increasingly unstable and warrants close observation. Suspicious US troop movements could signal escalation in the region, as Iran, regardless of the state of its ruling party, has massive stockpiles of one of the world’s most valuable resources… Uranium, as well as the odd Nuke, I’m sure.

Speaking of Nuclear… the Chernobyl containment barrier was formally announced damaged to the point of being non-functional. This damage, caused by a Russian strike in early 2025, has quietly eluded the global spotlight; however, the consequences of Russia’s reckless action will be major, and it does not appear that any immediate action is forthcoming.

We check in on the unfolding situation in Yemen…

As we brace for another week in this world of uncertainty and conflict, the global situation appears to be on the brink of conflict and instability in every corner of the globe.

The Transatlantic Pivot: Special Operations Could be Moving to Kuwait as Iran Sinks into Chaos

The rapid accumulation of United States military assets in the United Kingdom during the first week of January 2026 represents a definitive strategic signal of US force projection capabilities. This deployment is not merely a rotation of forces but a high-velocity repositioning of tier-one assets following the conclusion of Operation Absolute Resolve in Venezuela. The data indicates a deliberate “bridging” operation, utilizing the UK as a logistical fulcrum to project power into the European and Central Command (CENTCOM) areas of responsibility.

The Air Bridge and The European Airspace Anomaly

Flight tracking intelligence and open-source verification have confirmed a significant surge in heavy airlift and special mission aircraft into the United Kingdom. RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, historically a forward operating base for US Strategic Command’s bomber fleet, has been activated as the primary staging hub for this movement. However, this deployment coincided with a severe and anomalous disruption to European air traffic infrastructure.

On January 4, 2026, precisely as the surge of US transport aircraft was peaking, the Athens Flight Information Region (FIR) experienced a total collapse of radio frequency communications. This “noise” interference grounded all civil departures and arrivals across Greece for several hours and caused knock-on delays throughout the European continent. While Greek authorities officially attributed this to a “technical failure” of outdated equipment, the timing—synchronous with the movement of high-value US electronic warfare and special operations assets—has fueled analysis suggesting a potential electromagnetic interference (EMI) event, possibly related to the operational security (OPSEC) bubble generated around the transiting forces.

Between January 3 and January 7, 2026, approximately ten C-17 Globemaster III strategic transport aircraft arrived at RAF Fairford. Analysis of flight data reveals that the majority of these sorties originated from two specific locations: Fort Campbell, Kentucky, and Hunter Army Airfield, Georgia. These bases are the garrisons for the US Army’s most elite aviation and ground units: the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment (SOAR), known as the “Night Stalkers,” and the 1st Battalion, 75th Ranger Regiment, respectively.

Complementing this airlift capability, at least two AC-130J Ghostrider gunships have touched down at RAF Mildenhall in Suffolk. The AC-130J is a highly specialized platform designed for close air support (CAS) and air interdiction in permissive and semi-permissive environments. Its presence in the European theater, particularly in conjunction with heavy lift assets carrying rotary-wing airframes, signals a preparation for complex, ground-centric special operations rather than purely air-centric deterrence.

Asset Composition and The “Night Stalkers”

The specific cargo unloaded at RAF Fairford provides the clearest indicator of the operational intent. Ground observers have identified or assessed the presence of MH-47G Chinook and MH-60M Black Hawk helicopters. These are not standard Army aviation assets; they are heavily modified airframes operated exclusively by the 160th SOAR.

The MH-47G is equipped with advanced avionics, terrain-following radar, and aerial refueling probes, allowing for deep-penetration missions in adverse weather and zero-visibility conditions. The MH-60M is similarly optimized for the infiltration and exfiltration of special operators. The deployment of these specific airframes, which were instrumental in the recent extraction of Nicolás Maduro from Caracas, suggests that the US military is retaining a “hot” capability—a force package that is spun up, briefed, and ready for immediate tasking.

Flight tracking data shows an increase in U.S. Air Force strategic airlift activity, including multiple C-17 Globemaster III transport aircraft arriving at RAF Fairford, alongside the arrival of two AC-130 gunships at RAF Mildenhall. Approximately ten C-17 movements have been observed over a short period, with most flights originating from Fort Campbell, Kentucky, and Hunter Army Airfield, Georgia.

While MH-47 Chinook helicopters have not been directly observed at RAF Fairford, several of the C-17 movements are assessed to have transported U.S. Army rotary-wing assets. The aircraft types involved, combined with departure locations and routing patterns, are consistent with the movement of special operations aviation units. Open-source imagery and flight data suggest likely involvement of assets associated with the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment.

(ukdefencejournal.org.uk)

All flights in and out of Greece were temporarily suspended on Sunday morning after a nationwide communications failure disrupted air traffic control systems, Greek state broadcaster ERT reported.

Flights later began to resume gradually, starting from Athens International Airport, with both departures and arrivals restarting, according to a statement from the airport operator.

The disruption occurred at around 9:35 a.m. local time (0735 GMT), affecting Greek airspace and halting arrivals and departures at Athens International Airport as well as regional airports. Thousands of passengers were stranded for hours at airports across the country, while several inbound flights were diverted.

(english.news.cn)

Operational Vectors: The “Bella 1” Interdiction and The Kuwait Transit

Intelligence analysis suggests two concurrent operational tracks for this gathered force, reflecting the duality of the “Kinetic Mercantilist” environment where state actors must enforce sanctions while simultaneously preparing for high-intensity conflict.

The Maritime Interdiction of BELLA 1

There is high-confidence reporting suggesting that elements of this task force are staging for a maritime interdiction operation against the oil tanker BELLA 1 (also identified as MARINERA). This vessel, which has attempted to evade US Coast Guard (USCG) patrols in the Atlantic, is sailing under a Russian registration and is believed to be carrying illicit cargo linked to the recently decapitated Venezuelan regime or Iranian networks.

The 160th SOAR specializes in maritime counter-terrorism and Visit, Board, Search, and Seizure (VBSS) operations, often working in concert with Navy SEALs or Delta Force operators. The presence of MH-60M helicopters, which can be configured for fast-roping assault teams onto moving vessels, aligns with the tactical requirements of seizing a non-compliant tanker in international waters. The AC-130J gunships would provide lethal overwatch, capable of disabling the vessel’s propulsion or suppressing deck-mounted threats without sinking the ship—a nuance required for environmental and intelligence preservation.

Vector B: The Kuwait Transit and Iranian Contingency

Beyond the immediate tactical target of the tanker, a broader strategic movement is discernible. Discussions within the defense intelligence community point to RAF Fairford acting as a waypoint for a deployment to the Middle East, specifically to Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and staging grounds in Kuwait.

This “Kuwait Transit” theory posits that the 160th SOAR assets are being prepositioned within striking distance of the Iranian border. The operational profile of the “Night Stalkers”—specifically their ability to fly low-level, nap-of-the-earth profiles to evade radar—is uniquely suited for the Iranian operating environment, characterized by mountainous terrain and a degraded but still dangerous air defense network.

The deployment of such a force to the Persian Gulf would be consistent with preparations for a “Loose Nuke” or “Broken Arrow” recovery mission. Given the rumors of instability within the Iranian chain of command, the US may be positioning a “fixer” force capable of securing fissile material or extracting high-value assets should the Iranian state fracture or attempt a nuclear breakout.

In a post on X, the U.S. military’s European Command said the Trump administration had seized the vessel for violating U.S. sanctions.

“The blockade of sanctioned and illicit Venezuelan oil remains in FULL EFFECT — anywhere in the world,” U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in reply to that post.

Two U.S. officials, who were speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that Wednesday’s operation was carried out by the Coast Guard and U.S. military. U.S. special forces initially helped secure the tanker but left the vessel, which was now under Coast Guard control, one of the officials said.

(reuters.com)

“Lots of US Spec Ops aircraft have been transiting the UK in recent days, en route to Europe, including reports of aircraft originating from the 160th Spec Ops Air Regiment aka ‘Nightstalkers’ who supported the raid on Maduro in Venezuela…Another possible action in Europe?” a former British Army officer Ed McGuinness said in a X post on Tuesday.

Another netizen @Fahadnaimb who claims to be licensed aircraft maintenance engineer said in a X post on Monday that “US special ops air ramping hard through Europe to Gulf early 2026 160th SOAR (Night Stalkers) elements parked at RAF Fairford UK, two AC-130J gunships touched down nearby, C-17s flowing Ramstein Germany straight to Al Udeid Qatar and Saudi bases. Classic staging play. So, quiet but loud message. Post-Venezuela shift, Iran/Houthi prep, or just a routine flex? What’s your take on the timing?”

(globaltimes.cn)

The Iranian Outlook Suggests More Violence and Chaos

The strategic posture of the Islamic Republic of Iran has entered a phase of critical entropy as of January 9, 2026. The convergence of external military pressure and acute internal destabilization has created a scenario where the “chain of custody” regarding Iran’s sensitive military assets is no longer guaranteed. While no confirmed “Broken Arrow” (nuclear accident or loss) has been verified, the US and allied force posture indicates that the risk of such an event could now be the primary driver of operational planning.

Situation Report (January 9, 2026): The Convergence of Revolts

As of January 9, the internal security situation in Iran has deteriorated significantly, overwhelming the regime’s suppression apparatus.

* Expansion of Unrest: Protest activity has expanded dramatically in both rate and magnitude. On January 8 alone, protesters demonstrated in at least 156 instances across 27 provinces, nearly doubling the volume of the previous day.

* The “Hydrological Revolt” Meets the Bazaar: The initial protests driven by water scarcity (”Hydrological Revolt”) have merged with economic grievances. Strikes by bazaar merchants—the traditional economic backbone of the revolution—have been joined by university students and labor unions, creating a cross-class coalition that the regime historically fears most.

* Kurdistan and Baluchistan: In the periphery, the situation is approaching open insurrection. “Nation’s Shield” forces and Kurdish opposition groups have called for general strikes, and security forces in Zahedan (Sistan and Baluchistan province) have reportedly opened fire on demonstrators.

* Regime Response: In a desperate attempt to regain control, the regime implemented a “nationwide internet shutdown” that has now lasted over 24 hours as of January 9. This digital blackout is a classic precursor to intensified kinetic violence against the civilian population.

Protest activity in Iran has expanded dramatically in both rate and magnitude since January 7, including in major cities like Tehran and in northwestern Iran. Protesters demonstrated in at least 156 instances across 27 provinces on January 8, which almost doubles the number of protests recorded on January 7. The individual protests are also much larger than those prior to January 8 and include 60 medium-sized protests (over 100 participants) throughout the country.

(understandingwar.org)

The Fracture of the Gulf: Yemen’s Tri-Polar Partition

The geopolitical architecture of the Arabian Peninsula has undergone a catastrophic fracture in the first week of 2026. The coalition assembled to fight the Houthis has dissolved into a direct conflict between its two principal architects, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, over the partition of Southern Yemen. This schism has moved beyond diplomatic tension to kinetic confrontation, redefining the alliances of the Red Sea.

The Escape of Aidarous al-Zubaidi

The tipping point of this rupture was the dramatic exfiltration of Aidarous al-Zubaidi, the President of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), on January 8, 2026. Following a demand by the Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) for his attendance at talks in Riyadh—and his subsequent refusal—al-Zubaidi was charged with treason and expelled from the government.

Saudi coalition intelligence has released a detailed timeline of his escape, painting a picture of a state-sponsored extraction operation by the UAE:

* Maritime Phase: al-Zubaidi reportedly fled Aden under cover of darkness aboard the vessel BAMEDHAF. This ship, flagged to Saint Kitts and Nevis, sailed from Aden to the port of Berbera in the breakaway region of Somaliland. The vessel notably deactivated its AIS (Automatic Identification System) tracking during the transit to evade coalition monitoring.

* Aerial Phase: From Berbera, al-Zubaidi was transferred to an Ilyushin Il-76 cargo aircraft. This plane flew him to Mogadishu, Somalia, and then onward to the Al-Reef Military Airport in Abu Dhabi, UAE. The aircraft also reportedly disabled its transponder over the Gulf of Oman, reactivating it only minutes before landing.

This operation implicated the UAE directly in the physical removal of a figure now deemed a traitor by the recognized Yemeni government, effectively severing the diplomatic trust between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.

The extraction of Aidarous al-Zubaidi from the port of Aden to the Emirati capital is a critical indicator in Yemen’s protracted conflict; it signifies a significant fracture within the decade-long Arab coalition into competing patrons, each pursuing distinct and incompatible agendas. Saudi-led coalition statements and multiple contemporaneous reports indicate that al-Zubaidi left Aden by boat for Berbera in Somaliland and was then flown to Abu Dhabi after a brief transit via Mogadishu. The choreography of that route, corroborated by flight-tracking and coalition communications, converts what might otherwise have been plausible deniability into a documented operation with identifiable logistics and actors, and thus a deliberate political statement by those who enabled it.

(hornreview.org)

The Dissolution of the STC and The “Homeland Shield”

In the immediate aftermath of al-Zubaidi’s flight, the STC announced the dismantling of its institutions and governance bodies on January 9, 2026. This capitulation marks the apparent collapse of the project to create an independent South Yemen via the STC as a political vehicle.

However, the vacuum left by the STC is being filled by a new security architecture dominated by Saudi Arabia. The “Homeland Shield” forces (Dara’ al-Watan), a Saudi-funded and trained paramilitary group, have moved to integrate former STC fighters and secure key infrastructure. This integration is viewed with skepticism by Riyadh, which sees it as a potential “laundering” of separatist militias, but it represents the only viable path to stabilizing the southern provinces without a full-scale civil war within the civil war.

Strategic Divergence: The Hadhramaut vs. Aden

The conflict is fundamentally a resource war driven by Kinetic Mercantilism.

* Saudi Arabia’s Imperative: Riyadh’s primary objective is to secure the Hadhramaut province in eastern Yemen. This territory is critical for the construction of a pipeline to the Arabian Sea, which would allow Saudi oil exports to bypass the Iranian-threatened Strait of Hormuz. The bombing of UAE-linked weapons shipments in Mukalla (Hadhramaut’s capital) in late 2025 was a kinetic enforcement of this red line.

* UAE’s Imperative: Abu Dhabi’s strategy focuses on maritime dominance. Control over the port of Aden and the island of Socotra allows the UAE to project power into the Bab el-Mandeb strait and the Horn of Africa. The loss of the STC weakens their proxy hold on Aden, forcing them to rely on more direct, transactional relationships with local power brokers.

The result is a Tri-Polar Yemen:

* The North: Controlled by the Iran-backed Houthis.

* The East (Hadhramaut): Dominated by Saudi Arabia and the PLC/Homeland Shield.

* The South (Aden/Socotra): A contested zone of UAE influence and fractured militias.

Yemen’s main separatist group and its institutions will be dismantled effective Friday, the group’s secretary-general said, following weeks of unrest in areas of southern Yemen and a day after its leader fled to the United Arab Emirates.

Abdulrahman Jalal al-Sebaihi said the Southern Transitional Council would shut down all of its bodies and offices inside and outside Yemen, citing internal disagreements and mounting regional pressure. But that decision was contested by the council’s spokesman, Anwar al-Tamimi, who said on X that only the full council, under its president, can take such steps — highlighting the internal divisions within the separatist movement. The Saudi-backed forces have since regained control of Hadramout, the presidential palace in Aden and camps in al-Mahra.

Abdulsalam Mohammed, the head of the Yemeni Abaad Studies and Research Center, said Friday that Saudi Arabia managed to contain the situation on the ground.

“Riyadh has proven that it will not allow any foreign interference to change the Yemeni roadmap by supporting one side over another, especially if force is used and chaos continues to threaten the security of Yemen, the region, and the world,” he said in a comment on X.

(ksat.com)

Thailand-Cambodia: The Fragile Peace and US Involvement

While eyes are on Taiwan, a significant border conflict has re-erupted between Thailand and Cambodia in Southeast Asia. Following a ceasefire brokered on December 27, 2025, violence flared again on January 6, 2026, but violence has not flared up again.

* The Incident: Thailand accused Cambodian forces of firing mortar rounds into Ubon Ratchathani province, wounding a Thai soldier. Cambodia countered that the explosion was accidental, caused by the detonation of a “pile of garbage” or ordnance disposal gone wrong.

* US Involvement: Recognizing the potential for escalation, the United States intervened diplomatically and financially. On January 9, the US State Department announced a $45 million aid package to support the peace process. This aid is targeted:

* $15 Million: Border stabilization and displaced person support.

* $10 Million: Demining operations (a major issue in the border region).

* $20 Million: Counter-trafficking and anti-scam operations.

* Strategic Context: This US involvement serves to counter China’s influence in the Mekong region. Beijing has also attempted to mediate the conflict to protect its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure, but the swift US financial commitment aims to solidify the “Kuala Lumpur Peace Accords” and keep Thailand anchored in the Western security orbit.

WASHINGTON, United States, Jan 9, 2026 (BSS/AFP) - The United States on Friday announced some $45 million in aid as it tries to bolster a fragile truce between Thailand and Cambodia.

Michael DeSombre, the top State Department official for East Asia, was visiting Thailand and Cambodia to discuss ways to strengthen the ceasefire, which President Donald Trump has sought to highlight as an achievement.

(bssnews.net)

The Radiological Front: Chernobyl’s Structural Failure

The war in Ukraine has included a “radiological hybrid warfare” component since early 2025. The structural integrity of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) has been compromised, creating a long-term environmental threat that is being leveraged for strategic effect.

The Breach of the New Safe Confinement (NSC)

In February 2025, a drone strike—attributed to Russia—impacted the New Safe Confinement (NSC) structure covering the destroyed Reactor Unit 4. As of January 2026, the full extent of this damage has been acknowledged by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

* Structural Damage: The strike punched a 15-square-meter hole in the external cladding of the giant arch. The ensuing fire burned through insulation layers, forcing emergency crews to cut approximately 330 additional openings in the skin of the structure to extinguish the flames.

* Loss of Confinement: The IAEA has officially stated that the NSC has “lost its primary safety functions, including the confinement capability”. While the internal steel skeleton remains structurally sound, the hermetic seal designed to contain radioactive dust and prevent water ingress has been broken. The facility is now “breathing,” allowing moisture in (which accelerates corrosion of the old sarcophagus) and potentially allowing radioactive particulate out.

Radiological Status and Strategic Paralysis

Despite the breach, radiation levels at the site boundaries remain within normal limits. However, the “loss of confinement” means the facility operates with zero margin for error. The IAEA has deployed permanent monitoring teams, but full repairs are impossible while active hostilities continue. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has indicated that comprehensive restoration will only be feasible post-conflict.

This situation creates a “radiological hostage” dynamic. Russia’s ability to threaten the integrity of the NSC forces Ukraine and its European allies to divert massive resources to monitoring and containment, while the constant threat of a “second Chernobyl” hangs over the continent as a psychological weapon.

Ten months later, repair work is still ongoing, and it could take another three to four years before the outer dome regains its primary safety functions, plant director Sergiy Tarakanov told AFP in an interview from Kyiv.

“It does not perform the function of retaining radioactive substances inside,” Tarakanov said, echoing concerns raised by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The strike had also left it unclear if the shell would last the 100 years it was designed to.

The gaping crater in the structure, which AFP journalists saw this summer, has been covered over with a protective screen, but 300 smaller holes made by firefighters when battling the blaze still need to be filled in.

(dawn.com)

The agency said that investigations continue to determine the extent of the damage sustained by the arch-shaped New Safe Confinement (NSC) shelter following the drone strike on 14 February.

The impact caused a 15-square-metre hole in the external cladding of the arch, with further damage to a wider area of about 200-square-metres, as well as to some joints and bolts. It took about three weeks to fully extinguish smouldering fires in the insulation layers of the shelter.

In its update on the situation, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said: “It took several weeks to completely extinguish the fires caused by the strike. The emergency work resulted in approximately 330 openings in the outer cladding of the NSC arch, each with an average size of 30-50 cm.

(world-nuclear-news.org)

Ukraine regularly reduces power at its nuclear plants following Russian strikes on its energy grid.

In October, a Russian strike on a substation near Chernobyl cut power flowing to the confinement structure. Tarakanov told AFP that radiation levels at the site had remained “stable and within normal limits”.

(dawn.com)

Predictive Outlook

Short-Term (7-30 Days):

* Yemen: The dissolution of the STC will lead to a rapid fragmentation of southern militias. Expect unpaid former STC fighters to turn to localized banditry or piracy, increasing the risk to commercial shipping in the Gulf of Aden. Saudi Arabia will move aggressively to consolidate control over the Hadhramaut pipeline corridor using “Homeland Shield” forces.

* Iran: The “Broken Arrow” risk will remain the primary driver of US force posture. The regime will intensify its crackdown on the “Hydrological Revolt” protesters, potentially using the internet blackout to cover for mass casualty events. If the internal command structure begins to visibly fracture, the US may move from “contingency” to “active interdiction” regarding sensitive sites.

Long-Term (1-6 Months):

* The Nuclear Precedent: The structural failure of the Chernobyl NSC will prompt a global review of nuclear infrastructure hardening. Russia will likely leverage the threat of further damage to the site to coerce European nations into limiting long-range weapon supplies to Ukraine.

* US Force Posture: The deployment of the 160th SOAR and AC-130Js to the UK and Middle East signals a shift in US doctrine towards a “global SWAT team” model. Expect smaller, hyper-lethal footprints of special operations forces to replace large static garrisons, aligning with the “Thiel Nexus” reliance on technology and precision over mass.

My Thoughts…

As we head into the weekend, there is a lot of potential for major events. The unrest in Iran appears to be spiralling out of control, with an internet blackout; there is usually massive force used. When the connection is restored, it is likely we will see a period of extreme violence and more casualties. There is a possibility for further escalation as the US moves assets to the region; the blackout over Greek airspace aligns with common US tactics to mask troop movement when preparing for operations.

The movement of the same forces that carried out the operation in Venezuela suggests that Trump’s regime may have a favored unit for their new doctrine of military intervention foreign policy. I really do feel that we might see US action in Iran over the weekend. This move could be one meant to capitalize on the chaos and decapitate Iatolla leadership, or it could be a move, as discussed in this newsletter, to secure sensitive nuclear materials for use by Israel and the United States. Things in Iran are likely to rapidly spiral as we head into next week.

The dissolution of the STC is a major development; it suggests that the UAE may be backing off from its claims in Yemen. Whilst we cannot make any statements with certainty, the STC’s internal fracturing could be a sign of a gambit gone wrong, or a play to restructure for a more hybrid warfare strategy after Saudi Homeland Shield Forces rolled back major STC gains in the region.

We can only hope that violence in the region comes to a close; however, if the fragile alliance between Saudi Arabia and the UAE is destroyed, we will likely see more clashes in the future. However, any brief respite for those caught in the middle is a positive.

US involvement in the deal between Thailand and Cambodia suggests that our reporting on the severity of the effects on US supply chains was substantial. In essence, this ‘bribe’ to stop the conflict so that semiconductor manufacturing in the Thailand+1 system can resume is likely the basis for this action. We will see whether it is enough to bring peace to the region so that nearly half a million people who have been displaced can return to their homes.

The situation in Chernobyl is on a knife-edge; Russia is effectively holding it as a gut punch. An unspoken threat, however, whilst things are stable-ish for now… all it takes is one drone strike to cause a disaster.

The reality is that until the war is stopped, the IAEA cannot get in there and do the work that needs to be done.

That will not be any time soon, and this threat hangs over Ukraine and Europe silently as Russia continues its war in Ukraine and likely prepares to start its next one.

Thank you for reading.

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The Firebrand Project is not about providing the news; it is a rebellion of thought! It is about burning away the status quo and igniting an entirely new national dialogue.

For $6 a month, you can help me bring more Firebrands to our cause. With your help, we can keep the Firebrand Project Burning throughout 2026.

A last note… Even if you can’t become a paid subscriber, you can help fan the flames of resistance. By restacking, commenting, liking, and sharing every post on other media platforms, you can accelerate the ignition of our movement.

I appreciate each one of you.

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Firebrands and new readers alike,

The global situation continues to deteriorate, and conflicts are increasingly driven by resource acquisition. The events of this week and the ongoing conflicts we are tracking suggest that trends of Kinetic Mercantalism and Resources Siege will continue and likely worsen into 2026. The situation in Africa is particularly perilous as multiple conflicts rage across the Continent and unstable governments face an environment of insurgencies and diplomatic realignment. The United States Manufacturing Sector is in a precarious state, and conditions in 2026 will be unlikely to improve the situation. The seizure of tankers by the United States demonstrates further escalation in American use of force to influence control over critical resources as it competes with China and struggles to find a path to resource independence to support the AI boom and corporate and wealthy industrial interests. Latin America is on the precipice of Uncertainty, as economic exploitation looms as US investors and their backers flood the region, working with far-right governments.

Continental Africa: The Fracture of the Sahel and the Great Lakes

The security architecture of Africa is disintegrating under the weight of jihadist insurgencies, resource competition, and the collapse of regional bodies like ECOWAS.

The Sahel: The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and the Expansion of Terror

The security situation in the Central Sahel—specifically Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—has deteriorated sharply following the consolidation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and their formal withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in January 2025. This political rupture has severed regional security cooperation mechanisms, creating a vacuum that jihadist groups are aggressively exploiting.

* Insurgency Dynamics: Armed groups affiliated with Al-Qaeda (JNIM) and the Islamic State (ISSP) have expanded their territorial control, laying siege to towns and cutting off supply lines. In Mali, a recent airstrike in Mopti displaced nearly 100 households, exacerbating an already critical displacement crisis. In Nigeria’s Niger State, over 70 people were killed or abducted in attacks on January 4, illustrating the inability of the Nigerian state to secure its hinterlands despite its military resources.

* The Humanitarian Fallout: The region is facing a catastrophic food security crisis. In Cameroon’s Far North region, conditions are projected to deteriorate to “Crisis” and “Emergency” levels by May 2026 due to conflict and displacement. The AES is attempting to mitigate the impact of sanctions and border closures by creating joint purchasing agencies for food security, but the effectiveness of these measures remains unproven.

* US Policy Response: The United States has responded to the deteriorating security environment by suspending visa issuance to nationals of these countries as of January 1, 2026, effectively isolating the region further and potentially pushing the AES states deeper into the orbit of alternative security partners like Russia.

Armed Islamist groups perpetrate recurrent abuses and attacks against civilians. These groups systematically use sieges, threats, kidnappings, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), drones and landmines as deliberate tactics of war as they seek to control supply routes and increase areas of influence. They have also enforced their own interpretation of Sharia law in areas under their control, imposing severe gender discriminatory rules. In besieged areas, armed Islamist groups are blocking humanitarian aid to civilians and causing starvation, imposing forced taxation and strategically destroying and looting civilian objects, including places of worship, health centers, food reserves and water services, among other violations of International Humanitarian Law (IHL).

(globalr2p.org)

Food insecurity in Cameroon is expected to worsen in 2026, despite short-term gains from main harvests, with Crisis (IPC 3) and Emergency (IPC 4) conditions expanding across several regions, according to FEWS NET and the Cadre Harmonisé analysis. In the Far North region, some areas are projected to deteriorate to Crisis between February and May, with some conflict-affected households in Emergency, while Crisis conditions will persist through at least May 2026 in the North-West and South-West due to ongoing crisis, displacement, and market disruptions, with needs peaking during the March-May lean season. The situation is compounded by major funding shortfalls, as the food security sector was only 19 per cent funded as of 2 December 2025. Stressed outcomes are also expected to continue in parts of Adamawa and East regions, driven by high food prices, limited livelihoods and refugee inflows from the Central African Republic.

(unocha.org)

From the US Department of State brief 12/19/25

Effective January 1, 2026 at 12:01 a.m. EST, in line with Presidential Proclamation 10998 on “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States,” the Department of State is fully suspending visa issuance to nationals of 19 countries – Afghanistan, Burma, Burkina Faso, Chad, Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Laos, Libya, Mali, Niger, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen – and to individuals traveling on any travel documents issued or endorsed by the Palestinian Authority, for all nonimmigrant and immigrant visa categories

(travel.state.gov)

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): The M23 Resurgence and Resource Wars

Despite the signing of a peace accord between Rwanda and the DRC in December 2025, the conflict in the eastern DRC has intensified, exposing the limitations of diplomatic agreements in a theater defined by resource extraction and ethnic animosity.

* The “Independent” M23: The Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group has effectively gone rogue—or is being used as a deniable asset by Kigali. Following the peace deal, M23 forces captured the strategic city of Uvira in South Kivu and have continued to clash with Congolese forces (FARDC) and pro-government “Wazalendo” militias south of the city as of January 5-7, 2026.

* Narrative Warfare: M23 leadership claims they are not bound by the Rwanda-DRC accord, asserting an “independent power structure.” This allows Rwanda to formally adhere to the treaty while its proxy continues to secure territory and mineral assets.

* The FDLR Factor: A UN report has confirmed that the Tshisekedi government continues to sustain and collaborate with the FDLR (a Hutu militia linked to the Rwandan genocide) and other anti-Rwandan groups, despite public disavowals. This collaboration provides Kigali with a perpetual justification for its intervention in the DRC and sustains the cycle of violence.

* Human Cost: The renewed offensive has killed over 1,500 civilians since early December and displaced another 84,000 people into neighboring Burundi. The conflict is fundamentally driven by the control of supply chains for coltan and cobalt, essential for the global tech industry.

As if to underscore this, less than a week after the peace accord, M23 captured the strategic city of Uvira in the DRC’s South Kivu province. They allegedly abandoned it a week later after international condemnation of the move. However, this past New Year’s weekend, M23 clashed with the Congolese army again, just a few miles away from Uvira.

The cost of these latest militant operations is high. The Congolese government has accused the Rwandan-backed rebels of killing more than 1,500 civilians in eastern DRC since early December. More than 84,000 people have fled the DRC into neighboring Burundi since early December, too, according to the UN. Tens of thousands more have been displaced within the DRC. That’s on top of millions already forced from their homes in the past decades of conflict.

(mnnonline.org)

A detailed reading of the latest UN Group of Experts’ midterm report (S/2025/858), covering developments up to November 2025, reveals a consistent pattern in which the government in Kinshasa publicly commits to peace and regional cooperation while simultaneously sustaining armed actors hostile to Rwanda.

This dual posture has become a central factor in the persistence and escalation of instability in North and South Kivu.

(ktpress.rw)

Somalia: The Resilient Threat of Al-Shabaab

Somalia remains a critical front in the global war on terror, with Al-Shabaab demonstrating remarkable resilience and adaptability.

* US Airstrikes: Between January 3 and 4, 2026, US Africa Command (AFRICOM), in coordination with the Somali government, conducted airstrikes targeting Al-Shabaab leadership near Jilib. This follows strikes against ISIS-Somalia in late December.

* Strategic Assessment: Despite these tactical successes, analysts warn that Al-Shabaab’s seizure of Mogadishu may be a “matter of time” if the African Union Transitional Mission (ATMIS) withdrawal proceeds without a capable Somali National Army to replace it. The group remains the wealthiest and most lethal Al-Qaeda affiliate, capable of conducting complex attacks across East Africa and posing a direct threat to US interests.

From the United States Africa Command press release on Jan. 6 2026

“In coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia, U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) conducted an airstrike targeting al-Shabaab between the evening of Jan. 3-4, 2026.

The airstrike occurred in the vicinity of Jilib, Somalia, approximately 100 km north of Kismayo.

AFRICOM, alongside the Federal Government of Somalia and Somali Armed Forces, continues to take action to degrade al-Shabaab’s ability to threaten the U.S. Homeland, our forces, and our citizens abroad.”

(africom.mil)

“Al Shabaab’s seizure of Mogadishu may already be simply a matter of time — whether through military action or negotiations,” Bryden wrote. “If so, a new cycle of armed conflict between a further empowered al Shabaab in control of Mogadishu and its 4 million inhabitants, and their sworn enemies in other parts of the country will be all but inevitable. Neighboring countries would similarly face the heightened prospect of renewed terrorist attacks across their borders. The time for hopeful half-measures is past. Only urgent, decisive, and concerted intervention can prevent Somalia from becoming a jihadist state.”

(adf-magazine.com)

Sudan: The War on Infrastructure and Genocidal Tactics

The civil war in Sudan has evolved into a war of annihilation, with combatants targeting the biological infrastructure necessary for human survival.

* The Drone War Escalates: On January 5, 2026, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) intercepted a swarm of suicide drones launched by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) targeting the Merowe Dam and air bases in the Northern State. The targeting of the Merowe Dam, Sudan’s largest hydroelectric facility, represents a shift to “total war.” Destroying the dam would not only cut power to millions but potentially cause catastrophic flooding, effectively weaponizing the Nile against the population.

* Civilian Toll: On January 6, an RSF drone strike on a residential home in El Obeid, North Kordofan, killed at least 13 people, including eight children. This attack on a city the army has held highlights the RSF’s strategy of terrorizing civilian populations in government-held areas to erode support for the SAF.

* Geopolitical Dimensions: The RSF’s acquisition of advanced loitering munitions points to continued external support, likely from the UAE-Libya nexus, despite international condemnation. The conflict has created the world’s largest displacement crisis, with over 11 million people forced from their homes.

According to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), ground-based air defenses intercepted and destroyed several suicide drones shortly after 6:00 am on Monday before they could hit their intended targets. The unmanned aircraft were reportedly directed at the headquarters of the army’s 19th Infantry Division, the Merowe Air Base, and the Merowe Dam — Sudan’s largest hydroelectric facility. (dawan.africa)

At least 10 civilians were killed in North Kordofan’s capital of El Obeid on Monday evening when a paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) drone struck a residential area, hitting a family home and killing nine members of the same family, including women and children, according to eyewitnesses. Several neighbours were also wounded. Radio Dabanga was unable to reach the RSF for comment. (dabangasudan.org)

Witnesses say Monday’s drone attack on the house in el-Obeid happened in a residential neighbourhood.

The Sudan Doctors’ Network says it “reflects a dangerous escalation of the policy of indiscriminate killing and systematic bombing of safe residential areas”.

The city of el-Obeid remains under army control despite the RSF’s advance elsewhere in the wider state of North Kordofan. The attack comes days after the RSF hit a power plant in el-Obeid, and also follows what the army claims was an attempted RSF drone attack on the country’s largest hydro-electric dam near the northern town of Merowe.

(the-star.co.ke)

Yemen: The Fracture of the Gulf Coalition

The geopolitical shockwave from the southern Arabian Peninsula has intensified since the final days of 2025. The anti-Houthi coalition has not just fractured; it has engaged in direct fratricidal conflict, fundamentally altering the security architecture of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. What was once a proxy war against the Houthis has mutated into a war for the partition of South Yemen, pitting Saudi Arabia’s territorial insecurities against the UAE’s maritime ambitions.

The Collapse of the Unitary Front

The conflict reached a kinetic tipping point in late December 2025 and has escalated through the first week of January 2026. The trigger was a series of Saudi airstrikes on the port of Mukalla in the Hadhramaut region, targeting weapons shipments intended for the Southern Transitional Council (STC), the separatist entity backed by Abu Dhabi. This “blue-on-blue” engagement destroyed the facade of Gulf unity.

* Saudi Arabia’s Imperative: Riyadh views an independent, UAE-aligned South Yemen as an existential threat. Such a state would control Saudi Arabia’s southern border and the potential pipeline routes through Al-Mahra to the Arabian Sea, which Riyadh views as essential for bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

* The UAE’s Maritime Empire: Abu Dhabi’s strategy is to control the “Rimland” of the peninsula—the ports of Aden, Mukalla, and Socotra—to integrate them into its global logistics network and secure access to the gold deposits in Hadhramaut.

The Flight of Aidarous al-Zubaidi

On January 8, 2026, the crisis deepened with reports that STC leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi had fled Aden. The Saudi-led coalition’s spokesperson, Major General Turki al-Maliki, accused the UAE of orchestrating a covert sea-and-air extraction operation. According to intelligence, Zubaidi boarded a vessel named Bamedhaf at the port of Aden, disabling its identification systems, and sailed to Berbera, Somaliland. From there, he was reportedly flown to the Gulf via Mogadishu on an Ilyushin Il-76 aircraft. This extraction, occurring after Zubaidi was charged with “high treason” by the Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), signifies a total breakdown in trust. It suggests that the UAE is unwilling to let its primary proxy be eliminated politically or militarily by Riyadh, even at the cost of a diplomatic rupture.

Status on the Ground

Saudi-backed “Nation Shield Forces” (Dara’ al-Watan) have retaken control of Mukalla and the Second Military Region Command, forcing an STC withdrawal. However, the STC retains control of Aden, where the arrival of Saudi-backed forces on the outskirts suggests a potential siege scenario. The anti-Houthi front is effectively dead, providing an opening for the Houthis to consolidate their control in the north or launch opportunistic attacks.

The clashes, which started on Friday, January 2 and continued for days, also left 152 fighters wounded, while 130 others were taken captives.

The fighting between the PLC and the STC raged, when the latter seized control of Yemen’s east-central governorate of Hadhramaut, and the eastern governorate of Al Mahra in early December 2025.

This unprecedented escalation entailed a reaction by Saudi Arabia, which considered the advancement of STC troops a threat to its security because Hadramaut borders its territories.

The largest oil field in Yemen and the Dhabba oil terminal on the Arabian Sea are located in the governorate as well, making it of strategic importance in terms of the regional power struggle between Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Regarding Al-Mahra, its significance lies in the fact that Saudi Arabia has for years sought to develop it as an oil pipeline route that would work as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz.

(peoplesdispatch.org)

Saudi Arabia has accused the United Arab Emirates of orchestrating a covert operation to extract Aidarous al-Zubaidi from Yemen after the separatist leader was charged with high treason, intensifying tensions between nominal allies.

On Thursday, Major General Turki al-Maliki, the spokesperson for the Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen, said intelligence showed that Zubaidi, head of the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), left Aden late on 7 January by sea. (middleeasteye.net)

A Saudi-led coalition said on Wednesday that it had undertaken “limited pre-emptive strikes” in Yemen to stop UAE-backed separatists from expanding the conflict.

The separatists seized large swathes of Yemeni territory last month, including much of Hadramawt province bordering Saudi Arabia, expelling Saudi-backed government forces.

But last week, air strikes from the Saudi-led coalition and a counter-offensive on the ground pushed back the separatists.

The coalition said on Wednesday that it had carried out new strikes in an effort to prevent separatist leader Aidaros Alzubidi from “escalating the conflict” and extending it into Aldhale Governorate.

(punchng.com)

State of US Manufacturing and Retail: The Contraction and The Crash

The US domestic economy is exhibiting a stark divergence: a manufacturing sector in prolonged contraction and a retail sector facing a solvency crisis, masked only by select investments in defense and AI infrastructure.

Manufacturing: The Deepening Recession

The US manufacturing sector is in a state of sustained contraction, defying the “soft landing” narrative.

* PMI Contraction: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9% in December 2025, marking the 10th consecutive month of contraction.

* Production: While the production index remained slightly in expansion territory (51.0), it declined from the previous month.

* New Orders: The new orders index remains in contraction, indicating weak future demand.

* Interpretation: The sector is weighed down by high interest rates, tariff uncertainty, and a global slowdown. The “resurgence” of American manufacturing is highly concentrated in government-subsidized sectors (defense, chips) and has not catalyzed broad-based industrial growth.

* The Onshoring Paradox: While the broader sector shrinks, specific industries tied to national security are seeing investment. Tax incentives and direct government funding are driving the onshoring of semiconductor and pharmaceutical manufacturing. For instance, AstraZeneca announced a $4.5 billion manufacturing facility in Virginia, part of a $50 billion US investment plan. This creates a “two-speed” manufacturing economy: a booming state-backed defense/tech industrial base and a rust-belt legacy sector in decline.

“Looking at the manufacturing economy, 85 percent of the sector’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in December, compared to 58 percent in November, and the percentage of manufacturing GDP in strong contraction (defined as a composite PMI of 45 percent or lower) increased to 43 percent, compared to 39 percent in November. The share of sector GDP with a PMI at or below 45 percent is a good metric to gauge overall manufacturing weakness. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, only Computer & Electronic Products expanded in December.”

(sbecouncil.org)

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement.

“Factories are continuing to produce goods despite suffering a drop in orders,” he said, adding that the gap between production and orders is the widest it has been since the height of the 2008 global financial crisis.

“Unless demand improves, current factory production levels are clearly unsustainable,” Williamson said. (utilitydive.com)

Retail: The Profitability Crisis and Bankruptcy Wave

The US retail sector is entering a period of profound transformation characterized by a “flight to profitability” and a wave of insolvencies.

* The Bankruptcy Wave: 2025 saw over 8,200 store closures, and the trend is accelerating into 2026.

* Saks Global: The luxury giant is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy after missing a $100 million interest payment. In a desperate restructuring move, CEO Marc Metrick has been replaced by Richard Baker as the company seeks emergency financing.

* Marshalls: The off-price retailer closed two major California stores on January 5, sparking fears of wider retrenchment.

* Structural factors: High debt loads (often from leveraged buyouts), rising wages, and the shift to e-commerce are crushing traditional brick-and-mortar margins. Analysts predict that up to 15,000 stores could close in 2026.

* Consumer Health: The “spending hangover” from the post-pandemic boom has arrived. Retailers are bracing for a pullback in consumer spending power, forcing them to focus on operational efficiency rather than growth.

* The AI Pivot: To survive, retailers are aggressively adopting AI to automate supply chains, manage inventory, and replace human labor in customer service. This “AI orchestration” is viewed as the only path to restoring margins in a high-cost environment.

Saks announced that Richard Baker, the company’s executive chairman, will step into the CEO role.

The leadership change comes as Saks Global explores multiple paths to survival. Bloomberg reports that after missing a $100 million interest payment last week, the company is seeking a $1 billion loan and preparing for a possible bankruptcy filing within weeks.

The retailer has also begun selling off valuable real estate. (mediapost.com)

Marshalls has closed two major California stores on Saturday, January 3, sparking speculation of possible closures in other states, like Texas. Don’t worry. Marshalls, owned by TJX Companies (which also runs TJ Maxx and HomeGoods), has not announced any statewide Texas closures.

The California closures affected two stores in Los Angeles and San Jose, both of which closed last weekend, according to the retailer. The closures affected more than 120 jobs (mysantantoinio.com)

As the calendar turns to January 7, 2026, the U.S. retail sector finds itself at a critical crossroads. Following a holiday season that saw nominal sales cross the historic $1 trillion mark, the industry is now bracing for a sobering reality check as the first-quarter earnings season approaches. While the headline numbers from late 2025 suggest a robust consumer, a deeper dive into the data reveals a “spending hangover” fueled by record-high household debt and a strategic “front-loading” of purchases by consumers eager to beat the implementation of the 2026 tariff schedules.

(markets.financialcontent.com)

2026 Employment Outlook

The labor market reflects this sectoral divergence. Manufacturing job openings edged up slightly to 462,000 in January 2026, driven by durable goods (defense/tech), while non-durable goods vacancies declined.1 Conversely, the retail sector is shedding jobs as stores close and automation accelerates. The overall picture is one of a labor market that is cooling, with hiring focused on specialized technical roles while low-end retail employment evaporates.2

Entering 2026, the pace of job creation slowed significantly.

In the first four months of 2025, before new tariffs were announced, the U.S. added a mean of 122,000 roles per month. Since May, average monthly job creation has fallen to just 17,000 positions, with most of the hiring in health care. This has put upward pressure on unemployment, which began 2025 at 4.0 percent and stood at 4.6 percent as of November.

Tariffs are not the sole factor weakening the labor market. Other drivers include policy uncertainty, reduced immigration to the U.S. together with out-migration, and growth in AI, which is starting to boost worker productivity.

As of the second quarter of 2025, output per worker was up about 5.4 percent, compared to the beginning of 2023.

(marcusmillichap.com)

Latin America: Political Shifts and US Investment Viability

Latin America is undergoing a seismic political realignment, driven by domestic voter frustration and the catalytic effect of the US intervention in Venezuela. The region is swinging right, creating a window for US investment but also heightening the risk of conflict.

The “Trump Corollary” and Investor Sentiment

The US decapitation strike against the Maduro regime in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, has fundamentally altered the risk calculus in the region. Surprisingly, financial markets have reacted with bullish optimism. Investors view the removal of Maduro and the potential for US-enforced stability as a precursor to market-friendly reforms across the continent. The “risk premium” for authoritarian instability is being replaced by a “Pax Americana” premium, assuming the US can maintain control.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s muscular moves in Venezuela and Argentina are adding to a rightward shift across Latin America in a pivotal election year, making foreign cash more likely to flow to the region as investors anticipate market-friendly reforms.

The U.S. removal of President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend sent Venezuela’s defaulted debt soaring, while Trump’s gamble last year to bolster Argentina’s Javier Milei – an ideological ‍ally – with a financial backstop of up to $40 billion paid off when Milei’s party did well in crucial midterm elections.

The willingness to add exposure reflects a view that Latin America ‌has moved as a block in regional cycles, with political shifts often reinforcing one another rather than playing out country by country.

Recent election wins in Ecuador, Argentina and Chile have seen a shift towards right-wing parties, underpinning rallies in regional equities, currencies and bonds over the past year.

Markets have also been buoyed by a general trend towards orthodox monetary policies and fiscal discipline, even in those countries led by leftist leaders like Brazil and Mexico. (kfgo.com)

Latin America Country-Specific Analysis: Political Shift and Investment Viability

Argentina

Under President Javier Milei, Argentina has achieved macroeconomic stabilization, posting its first budget surplus in years. Milei’s alignment with the US and aggressive deregulation agenda make the country a prime target for foreign capital, particularly in energy and mining.

The financial outlook for 2026 remains demanding, with Argentina facing maturities exceeding US$19 billion.

A critical factor to monitor is whether the government can issue debt in international markets to refinance these maturities with private entities and international organizations. This would require lowering the country risk.

(buenosairesherald.com)

Ecuador

President Noboa has declared a new state of emergency in nine provinces following a massacre in Manta. His “war on terror” approach aligns with US security interests, and US security assistance is increasing, which may stabilize the environment for extractive industries despite the fragility.

Published Jan 2nd, 2026-

A violent mass shooting in the Ecuadorean port city of Manta left at least six people dead and a dozen wounded on New Year’s Eve, as President Daniel Noboa declared a fresh 60-day State of Emergency across nine provinces.

The New Year’s Eve massacre occurred around 11 pm local time in the Nueva Esperanza neighborhood of Manta. According to police reports, gunmen stormed a gathering outside a residence and opened fire indiscriminately on a group of people, killing one child, one woman, and four men between the ages of 26 and 45.

The Manta district —which includes the cantons of Montecristi and Jaramijó— closed 2025 with a record-breaking 500 homicides, for a nationwide total of 9,000 in 2025.

In response to the surge in high-intensity violence, President Noboa signed a decree on Wednesday night establishing a new state of emergency for nine provinces and three cantons. The measure, which went into effect on Thursday.

(en.mercopress.com)

Chile

Recent elections have seen a shift toward right-wing parties. Chile remains the crown jewel of the “Lithium Triangle.” While the National Lithium Strategy emphasizes state control, the government is pragmatically partnering with private firms. American Lithium Minerals (AMLM) recently acquired two major projects (silver/copper), signaling US entry to counter China.

In a bold move that signals a significant transformation of its corporate identity, American Lithium Minerals Inc. (OTC: AMLM) announced today, January 8, 2026, that it has secured exclusive options to acquire 100% ownership of two premier mineral projects in Chile. The acquisition of the La Grande Plata silver project and the Furano copper-gold porphyry project marks the company’s decisive expansion into South America, diversifying its portfolio beyond its namesake lithium assets and into the red-hot markets for industrial and precious metals.

(markets.financialcontent.com)

Peru

Peru faces elections in April 2026. Despite chronic political chaos (six presidents in six years), the mining sector remains robust. US military personnel have been authorized to enter for training throughout 2026, signaling a deepening partnership to counter Chinese influence at the Chancay port.

President José Jerí is confronting an escalating crisis of bourgeois rule.

While coming to office vowing an “iron-fist” (mano dura) crackdown on organized crime, murders, extortion and other crimes have not only persisted but increased alarmingly. This phenomenon is politically critical, as social outrage over the relentless advance of extortion mafias was the main catalyst for Boluarte’s impeachment by Congress and made her one of the most hated heads of state in the country’s history.

China has invested US$1.3billion in the first phase of construction of the Peruvian mega maritime port of Chancay, with a total investment expected to top US$3.6 billion. (wsws.org)

The China Factor: The Monroe Doctrine 2.0

The US intervention in Venezuela is a direct challenge to China’s “all-weather” partnership with the Maduro regime. China has condemned the US action as “bullying” and a violation of international law. However, the US is aggressively moving to displace Chinese influence. The “Trump Corollary” implies that the US will no longer tolerate hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets in the Western Hemisphere. This puts Chinese investments, particularly in critical infrastructure like the Chancay port in Peru and lithium mines in Bolivia, under threat of US sanctions or “security” interventions.

The Chinese spokesperson’s comments refer to China’s growing presence in the continent, which has been traditionally under the US sphere of influence. State media reported that China-Latin America trade volume reached a record high of $518.47 billion in 2024, and China is the largest trading partner of South American countries.

Bilateral trade includes agricultural goods such as soybeans, for which China has reduced its dependence on the US by turning to Brazil. It has initiated huge infrastructure projects under the flagship Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), like the $3.5 billion port in Chancay, Peru. China is also looking for deals to extract South America’s mineral wealth.

For example, it has interests in the “lithium triangle”, a region that spans Argentina, Bolivia and Chile. It has some of the largest reserves of the metal — essential for producing batteries that power electric vehicles. China was also a major buyer of Venezuelan oil.

(indianexpress.com)

The Seizure of the Marinera and M/T Sophia

On January 7, 2026, US naval forces (specifically Navy SEALs) seized two oil tankers linked to Venezuela:

* The Marinera (formerly Bella 1): This Russian-flagged tanker was seized in the North Atlantic after a two-week pursuit. It had attempted to evade the US blockade of Venezuela. Russian military vessels, including a submarine, were reportedly in the vicinity, raising the risk of a direct clash.

* The M/T Sophia: A “stateless” dark fleet tanker seized in the Caribbean.

US European Command said on Wednesday that it had boarded the Marinera, a Russian-flagged oil tanker, over alleged sanctions violations, bringing to an end a dramatic two-week pursuit that began in the Caribbean and concluded in the Atlantic.

Separately on Wednesday, the US Coast Guard announced it had intercepted another dark-fleet tanker that is under sanctions, the M Sophia, in a pre-dawn operation in the Caribbean.

(theguardian.com)

Russia Bombs Zoo in Ukraine

Russian Aggression in Ukraine continues to target civilian and non-military targets. In a recent attack, a zoo was attacked in Ukraine.

* The Incident: On January 1, 2026, a Russian glide bomb struck the Feldman Eco Park near Kharkiv. The strike destroyed the winter enclosures for predators and birds.

* Casualties: Several animals were killed, including birds. Crucially, lions and tigers were wounded and traumatized by the blast.

* Context: This is not the first time the park has been targeted. It was a battleground in 2022. The deliberate or reckless targeting of a wildlife sanctuary highlights the indiscriminate nature of the Russian air campaign and the “ecocide” accompanying the kinetic war.

Russian forces struck the Feldman Eco-Park near the city of Kharkiv, wounding and killing dozens of animals, Oleksandr Feldman, a Ukrainian member of parliament and founder of the eco-park, reported on Jan. 1.

“The predators’ winter enclosure and the birds’ winter housing were completely destroyed. The lions were injured. Everything there is destroyed,” Feldman told Suspilne after a Russian glide bomb struck the eco-park, which is located on the outskirts of Kharkiv in the village of Lisne.

“As for the birds, if not all of them died, then most did. A shell hit the aviary,” he added.

Russian strikes have previously targeted the eco-park. In July 2024, two eco-park employees were injured in a Russian drone strike on the eco-park’s territory.

Russia has previously targeted Ukrainian zoos in strikes, and animals living in nature reserves and shelters under Russian occupation have reportedly suffered from starvation and malnutrition.

Animal rights organization UAnimals estimated in June 2024 that over 6,000,000 animals have died since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 (kyivindependent.com)

Predictive Outlook

Predictive Modeling for Q1 2026:

Oil Market Volatility: The US seizure of tankers and the blockade of Venezuela will keep oil markets volatile. While the US aims to flood the market with Venezuelan crude eventually, the immediate effect is a supply shock for China’s independent refineries. Expect Beijing to aggressively source oil from Iran and Russia, further bifurcating the global energy market into “Western” and “Dark Fleet” spheres.

Yemen’s Partition: The Saudi-UAE proxy war will lead to the de facto partition of South Yemen. Saudi Arabia will consolidate control over Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra to secure its pipeline corridor, while the UAE (via the STC) will entrench itself in Aden and Socotra. This fragmentation will likely allow the Houthis to consolidate the north and potentially launch opportunistic attacks on the fractured south.

My Thoughts…

The situation in Africa raises genuine concern; the decimation of USAID will have profound effects. Among them is the contribution to instability and the acceleration of food shortages and humanitarian crises.

M23, the RSF, JNIM, and ISSP are functionally undermining and in some cases toppling or near to toppling weak and poorly organized governments.

High demand for natural resources creates a situation in which corruption and exploitation are highly profitable, and the world is willing to turn the other cheek more often than usual, so long as these resources keep flowing.

Not only insurgency, but also environmental and humanitarian crises threaten to destabilize countries not facing armed insurgency.

Whether it is through a proxy force similar to the RSF in Sudan, which is backed by the UAE, orthe M23, a proxy force of Rwanda. These well-supplied and highly complex groups can pose a direct threat and even offer alternatives to existing governments.

Seizure of resources, as we are seeing in the DRC with Uvira, creates situations in which countries may be inclined to purchase from M23 or through backchannels to obtain these resources, even though the territory is not currently internationally recognized as belonging to the nation to which it is held.

This puts foreign investors and supply chains in strenuous situations where protecting investment and keeping things moving means working with terrorist and insurgent groups.

Situations like Somalia, where government forces consistently lose to insurgent groups like Al Shabaab, suggest that countries with key resources could experience restructuring and power vacuums in the coming weeks and months. Large-scale disruptions and further infrastructure destruction, such as the RSF’s efforts in Sudan, could escalate the humanitarian crisis and supply chain disruptions to an unmanageable level.

Africa is very underreported by Western Media, but its importance cannot be understated; an Africa in Chaos will have majorly destabilizing effects on the world.

I anticipate the situation in Yemen will worsen, as control over the highly contested Hadhramaut region appears to be of top priority to Saudi Arabia. Whether or not they can defeat the STC is another matter altogether; the UAE has demonstrated considerable success in its operations in Sudan using the RSF. If that is any indicator, Saudi Arabia will have a hard time removing the STC from power, especially if the UAE continues to supply weapons and financial support. We will continue to monitor this closely, as it is likely going to determine the balance of power in the Red Sea and Arabian Peninsula for years to come.

The United States manufacturing sector has been something I have been watching for over half a year now. I believe that it is a black swan that could be a very real catalyst for US economic collapse. I believe that China knows that as well. With December clocking the worst contraction in the Manufacturing PMI at 47.9% on the eve of absolutely devastating controls that we have covered on Silver and Steel, along with the continuation of existing controls on virtually every critical mineral the United States needs to support its defense and technology base, the United States is facing a dire situation. Steel, in particular, could be a killer, as it is essential for building new infrastructure and a critical input across a multitude of US industries. While analysts suggest that new business in tech manufacturing could help the industry, they overlook that many of these jobs and facilities do not exist. With construction dates suggesting they won’t be open until the late 2020’s or 2030. Consider, too, that these facilities need inputs such as silver, steel, germanium, gallium, etc., all under extensive Chinese controls.

Latin America is facing an insurgency, one of economic and military entanglement with US interests. The US is moving to gain access to South American Lithium, Silver, Copper, and Gold Deposits to counter Chinese dominance. While they still lack refining capabilities, this would be a step toward independence. We are seeing a concerning decline in the country, as criminal gangs and cartels go toe to toe with militaries, and fear of crime propels right-wing leaders like Milei and Kast into power. This trend is deeply concerning; however, there is a difference between capital and execution. Right now, many of these projects are funded but not implemented, and it will take time for American investment to gain control of these resources and have them up and running. Likely 2027 or 2028 at the earliest. Democracy is currently very vulnerable in the region, and US action and competition with China over resources will further destabilize the region, exacerbated by American meddling in elections.

The US seizure of two tankers continues the trend of using kinetic force to pressure competitors and establish regional dominance over resources in the Caribbean and Latin America. The global reaction to this strategy, particularly pressures and new controls or sanctions by China, is what I am watching for at the moment.

Putin’s cruelty in Ukraine knows no bounds, but we often overlook the cost beyond that in human lives. 6,000,000 dead animals since 2022. Ukraine’s local ecosystems are decimated, drones and fiber optic cables in particular kill animals, and netting traps birds.

The bombing of zoos and reserves shows that Putin does not want the war to end; he wants to crush Ukraine, destroy its beauty, heritage, and history.

Ukraine will persist; its people are a beacon of democracy, and I am glad that these lions and tigers survived the strike on the Feldman Eco Park Zoo in Kharkiv.

Slava Ukraine.

I dedicate this report to Renee Nicole Good…

My heart goes out to her family and loved ones. Such barbarism must be punished.

I reaffirm that her death will not be forgotten and that justice for her murder and those who enabled it will come, no matter how long or hard the fight.

May she burn bright… forever.

The Firebrand Project is not about providing the news; it is a rebellion of thought! It is about burning away the status quo and igniting an entirely new national dialogue.

For $6 a month, you can help me bring more Firebrands to our cause. With your help, we can keep the Firebrand Project Burning throughout 2026.

A last note… Even if you can’t become a paid subscriber, you can help fan the flames of resistance. By restacking, commenting, liking, and sharing every post on other media platforms, you can accelerate the ignition of our movement.

I appreciate each one of you.

Burn Bright.

Shane

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The Firebrand Project is not about providing the news; it is a rebellion of thought! It is about burning away the status quo and igniting an entirely new national dialogue.

For $6 a month, you can help me bring more Firebrands to our cause. With your help, we can keep the Firebrand Project Burning throughout 2026.

A last note… Even if you can’t become a paid subscriber, you can help fan the flames of resistance. By restacking, commenting, liking, and sharing every post on other media platforms, you can accelerate the ignition of our movement.

I appreciate each one of you.

Burn Bright.

Shane

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Firebrands and new readers alike,

Today, we are continuing to see the new status quo for 2026. The geopolitical architecture is fracturing along lines defined by resource dependency rather than ideology. The United States, under the doctrine of “Operation Absolute Resolve,” has demonstrated a willingness to decapitate sovereign governments to secure energy assets, shattering the post-WWII prohibition on territorial conquest for economic gain. This action has sent shockwaves through the international community, forcing allies like Denmark to view American security guarantees as potential threats to their own territorial integrity.

Simultaneously, the internal stability of key regional pivots is eroding. Iran is facing a “hydrological suicide” where regime mismanagement has collided with climate reality, sparking protests that threaten the clerical establishment more acutely than any external sanction. Pakistan, conversely, is attempting a “Praetorian Pivot,” where a consolidated military leadership seeks to balance Chinese infrastructure dependency against American mineral hunger, turning the country into a transactional battleground for the 21st-century supply chain.

Iran Internal Crisis: The Hydrological Revolt and Regime Fragility

The Islamic Republic of Iran is currently navigating the most perilous internal crisis of its existence. Unlike the political movements of 2009 or the socio-cultural uprisings of 2022, the current wave of unrest, which began on December 28, 2025, is driven by the convergence of economic destitution and irreversible environmental collapse. The regime is no longer fighting for its ideological legitimacy; it is fighting against the physical reality of a dying land.

The “Water Bankruptcy”: A Driver of Existential Threat

The primary, yet often underreported, driver of the current destabilization is Iran’s state of “water bankruptcy.” Years of aggressive dam building, inefficient agricultural policies managed by the “Water Mafia” (entrenched interests within the IRGC), and climate-induced drought have led to a scenario where water demand vastly exceeds renewable supply.

The Tehran “Day Zero” Scenario

As of January 6, 2026, intelligence indicates that Tehran is approaching a “Day Zero” event—the point at which municipal taps run dry. Satellite imagery analysis from late 2025 revealed that key reservoirs supplying the capital, specifically the Lar and Latyan dams, have depleted to less than 30% of their capacity, shrinking by over 70% compared to historical averages. This depletion is not merely a seasonal fluctuation; it represents a structural hydrological collapse that the current infrastructure cannot mitigate.

The crisis extends beneath the surface. The over-extraction of groundwater has caused the land beneath Tehran to subside at rates of up to 25-30 centimeters per year, literally sinking the capital and damaging critical infrastructure like gas lines and rail networks. This phenomenon, known as land subsidence, is irreversible; once the aquifers collapse, they cannot be recharged. President Masoud Pezeshkian has publicly warned that the government may have “no choice” but to relocate the capital to the Gulf of Oman, an admission of defeat against the environment that has shattered public confidence in the state’s ability to sustain basic life. The logistical impossibility of moving a metropolis of nearly 10 million people has only fueled the public perception of a regime detached from reality.

The Rural-Urban Feedback Loop

The collapse of the water grid has decimated the rural economy. Agriculture, which consumes over 90% of Iran’s water resources due to archaic irrigation methods, has failed across vast swathes of Isfahan, Khuzestan, and Sistan and Baluchistan. The mismanagement is systemic; the “Water Mafia”—a nexus of IRGC-affiliated construction firms—has profited from building dams that disrupt natural flows and evaporate precious surface water, while prioritizing water delivery to industrial projects over farming communities.

This ecological failure has triggered a massive internal migration of unemployed farmers into the urban peripheries of cities like Tehran, Mashhad, and Karaj. These “climate refugees” form a volatile, disenfranchised underclass that has become the foot soldiers of the current uprising. Unlike the urban middle class that drove the 2009 Green Movement, this demographic is motivated by biological survival rather than political reform, making them less susceptible to traditional regime co-optation strategies and more prone to violent confrontation.

Tehran is sinking, and with it, much of Iran. This is a plain fact, not a metaphor for the country’s political and environmental crises. Because of excessive groundwater withdrawal, worsened by a structural water shortage, the soil beneath large areas of the capital is sinking by up to 30 centimetres a year, threatening buildings and infrastructure. (renewablematter.eu)

results show that four of the five reservoirs experienced steep decreases in surface water. Lar and Latyan shrank by more then 70 percent, far exceeding normal seasonal variation, while Taleqan and Amir Kabir declined by 28 percent and 20 percent, respectively. Only Mamloo remained relatively stable, at an 8.5 percent decrease. Such disparate changes are notable because these reservoirs do not feed a single unified supply; each serves different parts of the capital. Uneven depletion across these systems can therefore contribute to geographically unequal water availability across neighborhoods, compounding the crisis. (csis.org)

The Anatomy of the Uprising (December 28, 2025 – Present)

The protests that erupted in late December 2025 have rapidly metastasized from economic grievances into a revolutionary movement seeking the overthrow of the theocracy. The triggering event—a shopkeepers’ strike in response to hyperinflation—has evolved into a nationwide insurrection.

Spread and Intensity

As of January 6, 2026, protests have been recorded in at least 222 locations across 27 to 28 of Iran’s 31 provinces. The geographical spread indicates a breakdown in the regime’s containment strategy, which typically relies on isolating unrest to specific ethnic or geographic pockets. The protests have breached the “core” of the regime’s support.

On January 6, security forces clashed with shopkeepers and demonstrators inside the Grand Bazaar of Tehran, a constituency that was historically the backbone of the 1979 revolution. The “Bazaaris” turning against the regime signals a rupture in the traditional conservative alliance that has sustained the Islamic Republic. When the merchant class, which controls significant informal capital, aligns with the street, the regime loses its economic buffer against sanctions and strikes. Witnesses reported security forces firing tear gas into the covered alleyways of the Bazaar, a chaotic scene that symbolizes the state warring against its own economic history.

The Death Toll and Crackdown

The regime’s response has been lethal but seemingly panicked, lacking the coordinated precision seen in previous crackdowns. Human rights monitors report that at least 36 protesters have been killed as of January 6, with over 1,200 arrested. The crackdown has been characterized by extreme brutality, specifically in the western province of Ilam, which has become a flashpoint for the most intense violence.

* The Hospital Raids: In a flagrant violation of international humanitarian norms, regime security forces (IRGC and Basij) raided the Imam Khomeini Hospital in Ilam on January 4 and 5. Reports confirm that forces surrounded the facility, fired tear gas into the wards, smashed glass doors to gain access, and beat medical staff. Their objective was to abduct injured protesters from their beds to prevent them from becoming symbols of martyrdom or rallying points for further demonstrations. This tactic, while terrifying, indicates a regime that fears the bodies of its citizens as much as their voices.

* The Malekshahi Flashpoint: The town of Malekshahi has emerged as a killing field, with at least five protesters killed by live ammunition. The regime’s inability to regain control of these smaller provincial towns suggests a stretching of security resources, forcing them to rely on lethal force earlier in the escalation ladder than doctrine typically dictates.

Meanwhile, rallies were also reported in cities including Yasuj and Sari, and shops were closed in the southern port city of Bandar Ganaveh, according to London-based Iran International on January 5.

Overnight protests intensified across dozens of cities, with security forces responding with live fire, arrests, and heavy deployments. Universities, bazaars, and provincial cities remained central to the unrest. The western city of Malekshahi emerged as one of the deadliest flashpoints so far, where at least five protesters were killed and nearly 30 others injured after security forces opened fire on them on January 3.

At least 19 protesters and one member of the security forces have been killed, and about 990 citizens have been arrested during eight days of demonstrations in Iran. The unrest has spread to 222 locations nationwide, with rallies reported in 78 cities across 26 provinces, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA). (caspiannews.com)

Protesters angry over Iran’s ailing economy conducted a sit-in Tuesday at Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, witnesses said, with security forces ultimately firing tear gas and dispersing demonstrators as the rest of the market shut down.

The protest at the Grand Bazaar, the beating heart for centuries of both Iran’s economic and political life, represented the latest signal that the demonstrations likely are to continue as the country’s rial currency fell to a record low Tuesday. Already, violence surrounding the protests has killed at least 36 people with authorities detaining more than 1,200 others, activists abroad say. (pbs.org)

The situation escalated late on Sunday when security forces entered Imam Khomeini Hospital, where wounded demonstrators had been taken for treatment, according to rights groups.

Amnesty International said on Tuesday, “The Iranian security forces’ attack on a hospital in Ilam, where injured protesters are seeking medical care or shelter, violates international law.”

The rights group said information it gathered showed that on January 4, Revolutionary Guards and police special forces surrounded the hospital, used shotguns and fired tear gas into the grounds, smashed glass doors to gain access, and beat those inside, including medical workers. (iranintl.com)

Regime Destabilization: Fractures in the Security Apparatus

The most critical variable in the current crisis is the cohesion of the security forces. Historically, the regime relies on a dual military structure: the ideological Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), tasked with protecting the revolution, and the regular military, the Artesh, tasked with defending the borders.

The Artesh Factor and “Moral Defection”

Reports from January 4-6, 2026, indicate emerging fissures between these two forces. In Kermanshah, witnesses reported incidents where regular Artesh units appeared hesitant to fire on crowds, contrasting sharply with the ruthless violence of the IRGC and Basij. While there have been no formal mutinies, the absence of Artesh units in key crackdown zones suggests a reluctance by the regular army to shed civilian blood for the clerical establishment.

Further evidence of morale collapse within the broader security apparatus surfaced on social media. A video circulating on January 4 showed a police officer expressing sympathy with protesters, stating, “I am a businessman myself... We are all fellow citizens. Let’s respect each other”. While seemingly minor, such public displays of solidarity undermine the narrative of a unified state response. If the lower ranks of the law enforcement forces (LEF) begin to identify more with the economic plight of the protesters than with the orders of their commanders, the regime’s capacity to enforce order will disintegrate.

The “Moscow Contingency”

The depth of the crisis is reflected in high-level contingency planning. Intelligence reports cited by UK media suggest that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has activated a plan to flee to Moscow should the security apparatus fracture. The plan purportedly involves the evacuation of Khamenei and a circle of 20 top aides if the IRGC fails to contain the unrest. While such reports often contain elements of psychological warfare, the fact that they are being credibly discussed reflects the precariousness of the regime’s position. This “Moscow Option” mirrors the path taken by other besieged autocrats, suggesting that the leadership views the current threat as potentially terminal.

The “Weakened Hand”

The regime is operating from a position of historical military weakness. The Israeli air campaign in June 2025 reportedly destroyed a significant portion of Iran’s air defense network, ballistic missile stockpiles, and nuclear enrichment facilities. This loss of external deterrence has emboldened domestic opposition, who sense that the “emperor has no clothes.” The regime can no longer project power abroad to distract from failures at home; it is trapped within its own borders, fighting a war on two fronts: against its people and against a collapsing environment. The inability to play the “external enemy” card effectively—despite attempts to blame the US and Israel—indicates that the propaganda machinery is failing alongside the water grid.

Three Kurdish citizens, including two brothers and a 17-year-old child, have been killed after armed security and IRGC forces opened fire on anti-government protesters in the Jafarabad neighbourhood of Kermanshah, Kermanshah Province.

The Kurdistan Human Rights Network (KHRN) has learned that brothers Rasoul and Reza Kadivarian were shot with live ammunition on Artesh Street on the evening of 3 January during the protests. (kurdistanhumanrights.org)

The Iranian regime appears to have shifted toward a harsher and more coercive crackdown after top Iranian officials began differentiating between “rioters” and “protesters” and calling for crackdowns on “rioters.” Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivered a speech on January 4, stating that while protesting is acceptable, it differs “from rioting.” Khamenei added that speaking with “rioters” is useless and noted that “rioters should be put in their place.” Iranian Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei similarly called for the judiciary to act decisively against rioters and said that ”this time [the regime] will show no mercy to the rioters.” (criticalthreats.org)

An intelligence report shared with The Times of the United Kingdom says that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei plans to flee Iran for Moscow if protests spin out of control.

As described in a story published Sunday, Jan. 4, “Khamenei, 86, plans to escape Tehran with a close circle of up to 20 aides and family, should he see that the army and security called on to quell the unrest are deserting, defecting or failing to follow orders.” (gwire.com)

Predictive Analysis: The Point of No Return

The convergence of the water crisis and the legitimacy crisis creates a negative feedback loop. The regime cannot fix the water crisis without dismantling the IRGC’s economic empire (dam construction, agribusiness), which would destroy its own security base. Conversely, it cannot suppress the protests indefinitely without the loyalty of the Artesh and the public. We assess that Iran is entering a terminal phase of “State Failure via Resource Exhaustion,” where the central government gradually loses control over the periphery (Khuzestan, Sistan and Baluchistan, Kurdistan) not just due to separatism, but because it can no longer provide the biological necessities of life. The next phase will likely involve the militarization of water distribution, with the IRGC securing reservoirs as strategic assets, leaving the population to fend for themselves.

Thoughts…

The Iranian regime faces a “Checkmate” scenario. It cannot solve the water crisis without economic integration (lifting sanctions), but it cannot get sanctions lifted without abandoning its nuclear/regional posture (which it views as suicide). It is possible the protests will evolve into an armed insurgency in the border provinces (Kurdistan, Baluchistan), supported by defecting units of the Artesh. The regime will likely resort to extreme violence, potentially triggering a civil war scenario similar to Syria. The Water crisis itself even with economic integration is realistically unsolvable, and it represents a trend that will likely be repeated as we move into the next decade.

Climate collapse is real, and human activities are having profound impacts on local and global environments. The Middle East could face widespread regional uninhabitatibility due to groundwater extraction and rising temperatures.

Iran is not a niche case; it is what happens when a society faces collapse due to resource shortages.

Water wars are not some far-off dystopian reality; they are coming, and we may see them as early as this year.

The United States may also capitalize on this opportunity and use the protests as an excuse for military intervention, perhaps with the goal to gain control over regional resources or creating instability that can be capitalized on by Gulf State Allies.

Pakistan: Power Consolidation and the Praetorian Pivot

While Iran fragments, Pakistan is undergoing a ruthless consolidation of power. The state is being re-engineered into a “Hybrid-Plus” model, where the military leadership, specifically Field Marshal Asim Munir, has formalized its control over the economy and foreign policy, effectively bypassing the civilian facade. This consolidation is driven by the need to navigate a treacherous geopolitical landscape where Pakistan serves as a battleground for US-China resource competition.

The Rise of Field Marshal Munir: Constitutionalizing the Coup

The passing of the 27th Constitutional Amendment in late 2025 marked the end of Pakistan’s experiment with parliamentary supremacy. This legislation structurally enshrined the military’s role in governance, granting the Army Chief unprecedented legal authority over national security and economic development.

The Field Marshal Title

The elevation of Asim Munir to the rank of Field Marshal is a critical development. Unlike the tenure-based position of Chief of Army Staff (COAS), the rank of Field Marshal theoretically carries no retirement date. This move effectively insulates Munir from the political cycles and appointment intrigues that have plagued previous chiefs. He is now effectively the permanent viceroy of Pakistan, with the civilian Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, relegated to a managerial role. This shift provides the “stability” demanded by foreign investors (both Chinese and American) who require a long-term guarantor for their capital, unencumbered by the messiness of democratic transitions.

The “De Facto” Ruler

Munir acts as the primary diplomat and economic manager. His direct meetings with US President Trump and Chinese leadership, often overshadowing Prime Minister Sharif, confirm that the civilian government has been relegated to municipal administration while the military handles the state. This centralization allows for rapid decision-making regarding strategic assets, facilitating the transactional deals that define Pakistan’s new foreign policy.

Under the amendment, Munir – who was nominated to become a five-star general earlier this year – stands to have unprecedented powers. He will be elevated to the newly created post of chief of defence forces, overseeing not just the army but also the navy and air force, while also being granted lifelong immunity from criminal prosecution. (theguardian.com)

The Dual Alignment: Managing the China-US Resource Competition

Pakistan’s new grand strategy is to leverage its geography and geology to extract maximum value from both the US and China, moving away from exclusive dependency on Beijing. This is Transactional Realism in practice—playing both sides of the new Cold War to solvent the state’s debts.

China: CPEC 2.0 and the “Upgraded” Alliance

On January 4, 2026, during the 7th Round of the China-Pakistan Foreign Ministers’ Strategic Dialogue in Beijing, the two nations announced the launch of CPEC 2.0.

* The Strategic Shift: Unlike the first phase of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which focused on energy projects and road infrastructure, CPEC 2.0 prioritizes industrial relocation, agriculture modernization, and mining. This is designed to integrate Pakistan into China’s industrial supply chain, potentially moving low-end manufacturing from Xinjiang to Punjab to bypass Western tariffs.

* Security as a Prerequisite: A major friction point remains the security of Chinese nationals. Recent lethal attacks on Chinese engineers have strained relations, with Beijing demanding “verifiable actions” to dismantle terror networks. The joint statement emphasized opposition to “unilateral actions,” a veiled reference to both US interference and Indian aggression, solidifying the diplomatic cover China provides Pakistan at the UN.

The United States: The Reko Diq Mineral Pivot

In a masterful balancing act, Pakistan has simultaneously deepened ties with the United States through the Reko Diq copper-gold project in Balochistan. This deal represents the US entry into a theater previously dominated by China.

* The Financing Package: In early January 2026, the US Export-Import Bank (EXIM) approved a $1.25 billion financing package for the Reko Diq mine development. This is one of the largest US investments in Pakistan in decades.

* Strategic Significance: Reko Diq is one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper-gold deposits. By financing this project, the US is directly inserting itself into Balochistan—a region that is the centerpiece of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (Gwadar Port). It creates a physical US economic interest that competes with Chinese dominance and secures a non-Chinese supply of copper for the green energy transition.

* The Trump Factor: The personal rapport between President Trump and Field Marshal Munir has facilitated this pivot. Trump’s designation of Pakistan as a “reliable partner” for critical minerals signals a US desire to wean itself off Chinese copper/gold supply chains. Trump publicly referred to Munir as “my favorite Field Marshal,” underscoring the personalized nature of this new alliance.

Pakistan and China on Monday agreed to align their national development strategies and jointly launch CPEC 2.0, an upgraded phase of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, marking a renewed push to deepen their all-weather strategic partnership amid shifting regional and global dynamics. (Pakistantoday.com)

Beijing and Islamabad are actively deepening diplomatic, economic, and security ties with Afghanistan and Bangladesh in ways that can reduce India’s influence, chiefly through dialogues, offers to extend economic and military cooperation to the South Asian countries.

China has positioned itself as a mediator and convenor on Afghan issues, hosting talks and framing its engagement as reconstruction and counter‑terrorism cooperation rather than zero‑sum geopolitics.

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his counterpart from Pakistan, Mohammad Ishaq Dar, met in Beijing January 3-5 for the dialogue, following which, the joint statement bears clear testimony to their common goal. After direct and indirect interventions from Turkey, Qatar, Iran, among others, China has now entered the arena – at Islamabad’s behest – to try and get Pakistan and Afghanistan to end hostilities. (defence.in)

“I am pleased to highlight that the US Export-Import Bank recently approved financing of $1.25 billion to support the mining of critical minerals at Reko Diq in Pakistan,” Baker said.

She added that in the coming years, EXIM’s project financing would help bring in up to $2 billion worth of high-quality US mining equipment and services required to build and operate the Reko Diq mine.

According to the US envoy, the project is expected to generate substantial employment opportunities on both sides: around 6,000 jobs in the US and about 7,500 jobs in Balochistan, supporting local communities and contributing to regional economic growth. (tribune.com.pk)

The India-Pakistan Conflict: The Indus Water Treaty Suspension

Relations with India have hit a nadir following the escalation cycle of 2025. The conflict has moved beyond kinetic skirmishes into Hydro-Warfare, threatening the very biological viability of Pakistan.

The IWT Abeyance

Following the Pahalgam terror attack in April 2025 (attributed to Pakistani-backed TRF militants), India placed the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) in “abeyance”. This move, unprecedented since the treaty’s signing in 1960, signals India’s intent to weaponize water flow.

* Strategic Impact: India is accelerating the construction of upstream dams, specifically the Kiru and Ratle hydroelectric projects on the Chenab River. With the treaty suspended, India is filling these reservoirs without regard for downstream flow stipulations. This threatens Pakistan’s agricultural heartland in Punjab during the critical winter planting season, potentially causing a famine that would destabilize the state far more effectively than military strikes.

* Pakistan’s Reaction: On January 1, 2026, Pakistan categorically stated that any unilateral Indian action on western rivers is “treaty-violative” and unacceptable. However, Islamabad’s options are limited. The military gap has widened, and India’s “Operation Sindoor” airstrikes in May 2025 demonstrated a capability to strike deep into Pakistani territory with impunity.

* Operation Mahadev Fallout: The conflict is also being fought in the legal domain. The Indian National Investigation Agency (NIA) filed charge sheets in December 2025, naming Pakistani state actors and confirming the killing of terrorists in “Operation Mahadev.” This legal maneuver boxes Pakistan into a corner, labeling it a state sponsor of terror and justifying India’s aggressive posture on the international stage.

On 23 April, 2025, India put the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) of 1960 with Pakistan in abeyance, by temporarily suspending it under certain conditions. The move followed the Pahalgam attack in India, carried out by a supposedly Pakistan-based militant group, and was made during the subsequent military escalation. The Indian government cited national security concerns and Pakistan’s alleged support of state-sponsored terrorism as reasons for this step.

The temporary suspension of one of the world’s most conflict resilient water-sharing agreements is an extraordinary development and marks a surprising, serious and harsh act. For over six decades, the IWT endured various diplomatic breakdowns, violent escalations, and full-scale wars between India and Pakistan as well as surging nationalism on both sides, without being seriously questioned by either party. (Clingendael.org)

On 1 January 2026, Pakistan categorically stated that India is not allowed to misuse its restricted water allowance of the western rivers under the Indus Waters Treaty. The remarks were made by Foreign Office spokesperson Tahir Hussain Andrabi in response to reports that India had approved the 260-megawatt Dulhasti Stage-II hydropower project on the Chenab River in Indian-occupied Jammu and Kashmir, without prior notification to Pakistan. (eurasiareview.com)

Thoughts…

Pakistan will successfully play the “Double Game” in 2026, securing US capital for mining while maintaining Chinese infrastructure support. Field Marshal Munir will stabilize the economy in the short term through this dual patronage, but at the cost of total democratic erosion. The IWT conflict with India remains the wildcard; if India completely cuts off water flow, Pakistan may be forced into a desperate kinetic response.

Pakistan is playing a role similar to Rwanda’s, attempting to leverage key natural resources in high demand to improve its economic and political leverage over larger world powers.

At the same time that Autocratic tendencies increase under Munir and resource shortages become more acute, not unlike what is happening in Iran, the country could fall into more profound instability.

Uncertainty around conflict with Afghanistan and the Taliban government there could lead to further chaos and conflict in the region.

Global Response to Trump’s Greenland Statements

President Trump’s renewed demand to “take” Greenland, articulated immediately following the successful military intervention in Venezuela, has precipitated a severe crisis in the transatlantic alliance. The timing suggests a coordinated strategy of hemispheric consolidation, viewing the Arctic as the northern flank of the Monroe Doctrine.

The American Ultimatum

Following the Venezuela operation, President Trump stated on January 4 that the US “absolutely needs” Greenland for national security, citing the presence of “Russian and Chinese ships” in the Arctic as a pretext. He explicitly stated, “Denmark is not going to be able to do it,” implying a lack of Danish capacity to defend the strategic island and framing the acquisition as a defensive necessity.

* Stephen Miller’s Threat: Top White House aide Stephen Miller escalated the rhetoric on January 6 during a CNN interview. He dismissed the notion of Danish resistance, stating, “Nobody is going to fight the United States militarily over the future of Greenland,” effectively dismissing Danish sovereignty as a non-factor in the face of US power. This statement confirms that the administration views sovereignty as a function of military capability, not international law.

The Danish and European Backlash

The response from Europe has been unified and unprecedentedly hostile, marking a low point in NATO relations.

* The NATO Red Line: Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen issued a stark warning: “If the United States chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops. That is, including our NATO and thus the security that has been provided since the end of the Second World War”. This is an explicit threat to dissolve the alliance or at least deny US access to European bases if Washington pursues a hostile takeover.

* Greenland’s Stance: Greenlandic Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen demanded Trump give up his “fantasies about annexation,” stating “Enough is enough”.

* European Solidarity: Leaders from the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain issued a joint statement reaffirming that “Greenland belongs to its people,” rejecting the transactional view of territory and signaling a unified European front against US expansionism.

The Strategic Driver: Rare Earths

While framed as “defense,” the primary driver is Greenland’s mineral wealth. The island holds massive deposits of Neodymium, Praseodymium, Dysprosium, and Terbium—critical inputs for the US defense industry (magnets for F-35s, guidance systems) and the EV market.

* The Anti-China Strategy: China currently dominates the processing of these elements. Trump’s “Greenland Gambit” is an attempt to break China’s chokehold by seizing the deposit directly. The Kvanefjeld project in Greenland, which contains one of the world’s largest multi-element deposits, is the specific prize. US control would secure a domestic supply chain for the “Thiel Nexus” of defense-tech companies.

Thoughts…

The US actions in Venezuela and threats against Greenland have effectively ended the “Atlantic” consensus. Europe will rapidly move to “strategic autonomy,” decoupling its defense policies from Washington to avoid being dragged into American resource wars. The statement by the Danish PM is not a bluff; it is the death knell of the post-1945 order. I expect European nations to begin seeking independent security arrangements, potentially even engaging China as a counterbalance to US unpredictability.

Europe, Canada, and NATO have few options here; they need to draw a very hard line. Suppose the US is allowed to take Greenland, then all bets are off. Democratic Sovereignty is entirely dependent on whether or not you can defend yourself froman aggressor.

Any action taken by the US to acquire Greenland will likely result in massive sanctions and possible expulsion of US troops from Europe, maybe even US expulsion from NATO or its dissolution.

Global Conflict Update: The Arc of Instability

Yemen: The Saudi-UAE Proxy Divorce

The anti-Houthi coalition has fractured into open warfare between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, transforming Yemen into a three-way conflict.

Battle for Mukalla

On January 4, 2026, UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) forces withdrew from the strategic port city of Mukalla following severe Saudi airstrikes on their positions. Saudi-backed Nation Shield Forces (NSF) have retaken control of the Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra provinces.

* Strategic Implication: This is a struggle for control of Yemen’s southern coast and energy corridors. Saudi Arabia refuses to allow a UAE-controlled proxy (STC) to strangle its southern border and control access to the Arabian Sea. The UAE, though withdrawing uniformed troops, retains influence through the STC’s control of Aden and the strategic island of Socotra, where it is constructing military bases.

* Diplomatic Offramp: An STC delegation led by Aidarous al-Zubaidi is traveling to Riyadh for talks, signaling a temporary de-escalation. However, the underlying trust between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi is broken, and the STC has announced plans for an independence referendum, further fragmenting the Yemeni state.1

A delegation led by Aidarous al-Zubaidi, the leader of Yemen’s main separatist group will soon travel to Saudi Arabia, two sources tell Reuters, a potential sign of progress towards ending a conflict between the separatist UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council and Yemen’s internationally recognized government. (timesofisrael.com)

Thailand-Cambodia: The Semiconductor War

The border conflict over Preah Vihear has nearly re-ignited and remains a threat to the global tech supply chain.

Ceasefire Violation

On January 6, 2026, Thailand accused Cambodia of violating the December 27 truce with mortar fire in Ubon Ratchathani province. Cambodia claimed the incident was an “operational error,” but the exchange highlights the extreme volatility of the situation.

* Economic Impact: The conflict has paralyzed $5 billion in annual trade and disrupted the “Thailand+1” supply chain corridor. Major tech companies like NVIDIA rely on Outsourced Assembly and Test (OSAT) facilities in this region. The conflict has caused logistical bottlenecks, with reports indicating that the fighting is impacting the delivery of high-end chips, effectively making this a “Semiconductor War”.

Cambodia “violated the ceasefire” on Tuesday morning, the Thai army said in a statement, accusing Cambodian forces of firing mortar rounds into Thailand’s Ubon Ratchathani province.

One Thai soldier was hospitalised due to non-life-threatening shrapnel wounds to his right arm, the army said.

The Thai army said in a later statement that the Cambodian side had contacted a Thai military unit and claimed “there was no intention to fire into Thai territory”.

“The incident was caused by an operational error by Cambodian personnel,” it added.

Thailand’s military also said it warned Cambodian forces that if a similar incident occurred, Thai forces may need to retaliate. (channelnewsasia.com)

Sudan: The Drone War Escalates

The war in Sudan has seen a technological escalation with the introduction of suicide drones, fundamentally changing the tactical balance.

Merowe Dam Attack

On January 5, 2026, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) intercepted a swarm of suicide drones launched by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) targeting the Merowe Dam and air bases in the Northern State.

* Significance: Targeting the Merowe Dam represents a shift to “total war” tactics, aiming to destroy critical national infrastructure that sustains the population. The RSF’s acquisition of these drones points to continued external support (likely via the UAE/Libya nexus), despite international condemnation. The ability of the RSF to strike deep into SAF-controlled territory threatens to expand the famine and displacement crisis into previously stable regions.

The Sudanese army said Monday that it had intercepted suicide drones by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) targeting the Merowe Dam, the country’s largest, and military sites in northern Sudan.

A statement by the army’s 19th Infantry Division said the RSF fired several drones at its headquarters, the Merowe Dam and Air Base in the Northern State.

“All the drones were shot down before reaching their targets,” the statement said. (aa.com.tr)

Thoughts…

The most dangerous trend is the precedent set in Venezuela. If the US can decapitate a sovereign state for resources, other powers (China regarding Taiwan, Russia regarding the Baltics/Moldova) will calculate that the “rules” no longer apply. We are entering an era where sovereignty is guaranteed only by nuclear deterrence or direct alliance with a superpower—and even then, as Greenland shows, allies are not safe from the appetite of Kinetic Mercantilism.

Second- and third-world countries will become battlegrounds, where foreign meddling and leveraged instability serve as weapons. Proxy forces will continue to seize territory and attempt to redraw borders either in service of their foreign backers or in response to power vacuums caused by weak central governments, especially in Africa and the Middle East, where Gulf states are clearly looking to expand their regional influence beyond their traditional borders.

The flare-up between Thailand and Cambodia suggests that many conflicts that are briefly defused are unlikely to remain peaceful until the participating parties achieve their goals; countries will continue to engage in kinetic conflict rather than dialogue.

The era of peace over conflict is over.

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The geopolitical architecture of early 2026 is defined by a singular, paradigmatic shift: the transition from “great power competition” to “direct interventionism” and the unabashed weaponization of economic interdependence. The post-Cold War consensus, characterized by the pursuit of integrated global markets and multilateral conflict resolution, has effectively collapsed. In its place, a new doctrine of “Resource Mercantilism” and “Transactional Realism” has emerged, driven by the realization that sovereignty in the 21st century is predicated not merely on military capacity, but on the absolute control of strategic supply chains—from the antimony in munitions primers to the semiconductors in AI data centers.

Simultaneously, the global security landscape is fragmenting into a series of interconnected regional conflicts—from the “Lithium Wars” of the DRC to the “Proxy Divorce” between Saudi Arabia and the UAE in Yemen. These are not isolated skirmishes but symptoms of a systemic breakdown in the global order, where mid-sized powers are aggressively carving out spheres of influence in a vacuum left by the erosion of international law.

Operation Absolute Resolve: Intent Vs Reality

Operational Dynamics: The “Head of the Snake” Strategy

On January 3, 2026, the United States executed a military operation of unprecedented audacity and precision, codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve. The objective was singular and total: the removal of the Chavista leadership and the neutralization of Venezuela as a geopolitical adversary in the Western Hemisphere. The operation involved the deployment of over 150 aircraft, including advanced drones and cyber-warfare assets, which systematically dismantled Venezuela’s integrated air defense system (IADS) and paralyzed its command and control infrastructure within hours.

The tactical execution of this strike reveals a significant evolution in US military doctrine. Unlike the heavy-footprint occupations of the early 2000s, this operation prioritized “decapitation” via overwhelming technological superiority. US forces, leveraging capabilities likely developed by defense-tech partners like Palantir and Anduril, executed cyber-suppression attacks that rendered Venezuelan radar and communication grids inert, creating a “digital blackout” that blinded the regime’s defenders. This allowed Special Operations Forces to infiltrate Caracas and capture President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, with minimal resistance, subsequently extracting them to a US warship and then to New York to face narco-terrorism charges.

“At 10:46pm Eastern Time last night, the president ordered the United States military to move forward with this mission,” Caine said. “Over the course of the night, aircraft began launching from 20 different bases on land and sea across the Western Hemisphere. In total, more than 150 aircraft — bombers, fighters, intelligence, reconnaissance, surveillance, rotary wing — were in the air last night. Thousands and thousands of hours of experience were airborne.” The age range for crew members on this mission were 20 to 49 years old.

Caine said that as military forces approached Venezuelan shores, the U.S. “began layering different effects provided by [U.S. Space Command, U.S. Cyber Command] and other members of the interagency to create a pathway overhead.” They were protected by aircraft from the Marines, Navy, Air Force, and Air National Guard.

“The force included F-22s, F-35s, F-18s, EA-18s, E-2s, B-1 bombers and other support aircraft — as well as numerous remotely piloted drones,” Caine told reporters. “As the force began to approach Caracas, the joint air component began dismantling and disabling the air defense systems in Venezuela, employing weapons to ensure the safe passage of the helicopters into the target area.” American personnel conducting the op arrived at Maduro’s compound at 1:01am Eastern Standard Time or 2:01am Caracas local time. Their helicopters came under fire from the Venezuelans, and one was hit but remained flyable, Caine said. “There were multiple self-defense engagements as the force began to withdraw out of Venezuela. The force successfully exfiltrated and returned to their afloat launch bases — and the force was over the water at 3:29am Eastern Standard Time, with indicted persons onboard and both Maduro and his wife were embarked aboard the USS Iwo Jima,” Caine said.

The full extent of damage to Venezuelan infrastructure or civilian casualties resulting from this operation remains unclear. (defensescoop.com)

“Running the Country”: The Transactional Trusteeship Model

President Donald Trump’s declaration that the US is “going to run” Venezuela until a transition can occur has introduced a new paradigm of governance: Transactional Trusteeship. This does not imply a colonial administration with US governors in every province, but rather a control mechanism exerted through financial leverage, oil blockades, and the installation of a coerced interim executive.

The swift elevation of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez to the role of interim president, ratified by the Venezuelan Supreme Tribunal of Justice, suggests a pre-negotiated outcome facilitated by back-channel diplomacy. Rodríguez, despite her public condemnation of the “atrocity,” has pragmatically offered to “collaborate” with Washington, signaling a recognition that regime survival is now contingent on US acquiescence. This arrangement allows the US to dictate macro-strategic policy—specifically regarding oil exports and geopolitical alignment—while offloading the granular and politically costly burdens of municipal administration to the remnants of the Chavista bureaucracy.

CNN reported that U.S. officials have been using military and economic leverage to shape the post-Maduro landscape in Venezuela, focusing in particular on Rodríguez, whom Trump advisers had identified weeks earlier as a viable, though temporary, alternative. Despite her initial attacks following Maduro’s capture, U.S. officials privately remained confident she would engage. Indeed, Rodríguez has softened her tone, calling for “cooperation” with Washington and signaling that Venezuela would prioritize more balanced and respectful relations with the United States and the region.

At the same time, unofficial reports suggest that Qatar may have played a mediating role in arranging Rodríguez’s replacement of Maduro. (Qatari officials say they did not mediate, but only passed messages.) It was no secret that the small Persian Gulf country maintains close ties with Maduro’s ally, the Islamic Republic of Iran, as well as with other actors often at odds with the United States, including the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. (meforum.org)

It is a fact that she and other indicted and sanctioned officials are in Venezuela. They have control of the military and security services. We have to deal with that fact.

And yesterday, Trump said Rodriguez would cooperate. But during an interview with The Atlantic magazine today, Trump threatened Rodriguez saying she would pay a, quote, “very big price” if she did not do what was right. So that’s something to watch. (wboi.org)

The Oil Industry Status: “Pottery Barn” Realism and the Blockade

The stated US objective to “fix” Venezuela’s broken oil infrastructure and utilize the revenues to reimburse US operational costs is the ultimate manifestation of “Pottery Barn” realism: “You break it, you own it”—but in this case, “You break it, you monetize it”. This policy effectively privatizes the reconstruction of Venezuela, creating a massive potential windfall for US energy majors.

However, the physical reality of the Venezuelan oil sector presents a severe bottleneck. Decades of mismanagement, sanctions, and brain drain have left PDVSA (Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A.) in a state of collapse. Current production hovers around 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd), a fraction of its historic 3.5 million bpd capacity. Restoring this capacity will require hundreds of billions of dollars in capital expenditure and years of technical remediation.

The Blockade: The immediate impact of the operation has been the paralysis of Venezuela’s oil trade. To prevent the Maduro regime (or non-compliant factions) from liquidating assets, the US has enforced a strict naval blockade. Tanker tracking data indicates that numerous vessels, including supertankers destined for China, have fled Venezuelan waters “dark” (transponders off) or left empty to avoid US interdiction. This blockade serves a dual purpose: it starves the remaining resistance of revenue and preserves the oil reserves for future extraction by US-sanctioned entities like Chevron, which has already positioned itself to resume exports to the US Gulf Coast.

Venezuela’s PDVSA has begun curbing crude production as storage capacity fills up following a U.S. blockade that has halted the country’s oil exports, Reuters reported Sunday, citing sources familiar with operations.

The production cuts come amid a deepening political crisis after Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was detained by U.S. forces over the weekend, leaving an interim government under mounting pressure. Oil exports, the country’s primary source of revenue, have effectively stopped following U.S. restrictions on tanker movements and the seizure of cargoes last month.

Even shipments operated by Chevron (CVX), which had continued under a U.S. license, have ceased since Thursday, according to shipping data. U.S. President Donald Trump said the oil embargo remains fully in force.

PDVSA has asked several joint ventures to reduce output or shut down well clusters as onshore storage fills and shortages of diluents, needed to transport Venezuela’s heavy crude, worsen. Workers at some projects began disconnecting wells over the weekend, Reuters reported, though sources said production could be restarted if exports resume. (seekingalpha.com)

Venezuelan oil is a heavy, sour crude that requires special equipment and technology to refine, unlike the light, sweet crude produced in the U.S. that is used primarily to make gasoline. Heavy, sour crude is refined to produce diesel and fuels for factories and heavy equipment. Diesel is in short supply globally. If the Trump administration, new leadership in Venezuela, and the U.S. energy industry are all on the same page in coming months then there could be a boom for the energy exploration and production sector (XOP). (seekingalpha.com)

Market Reactions: The “Risk-On” Imperial Rally

Financial markets have interpreted Operation Absolute Resolve as a “risk-on” event for US strategic assets, anticipating that direct US control will eventually stabilize the region and unlock its resource wealth.

* Equities: US energy stocks rallied significantly, with Chevron (+5%) and Halliburton (+7%) leading the charge, reflecting investor confidence that these firms will be the primary beneficiaries of the reconstruction contracts.

* Sovereign Debt: Venezuelan government bonds, long in default, surged by over 22%, trading at 40 cents on the dollar. This rally is driven by hedge funds betting that a US-installed government will prioritize a debt restructuring favorable to Western creditors, potentially utilizing the country’s oil revenues as collateral.

* Commodities: Oil prices initially dipped on the news, reflecting a long-term expectation of increased supply, but stabilized as the reality of the immediate export blockade set in. Conversely, precious metals surged (Gold +2.7%, Silver +6.6%), acting as a geopolitical hedge against the uncertainty of a new era of aggressive US interventionism.

The oil price remains in the red this morning, with Brent crude now down 1% at $60.15 per barrel.

Analysts are in broad agreement that while the Venezuela attack is unlikely to boost demand for oil, it also won’t lead to a rapid surge in supply.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, says:

The question is, will traders focus on the potential for future Venezuelan oil flooding the market, which could tank the oil price, or will they focus on how much investment will be needed to get Venezuela to pump more oil? Right now, Venezuela pumps less than 1 million barrels per day, at its peak in 1998, before socialist dictators took control, it was pumping out nearly 3.5 million barrels per day. To get back to this level will take hundreds of billions of dollars in investment, which President Trump has said will partly come from US oil companies.

However, the type of investments needed including upgrading old and decaying infrastructure, drilling new oil wells and building more refineries to process Venezuela’s heavy crude oil. Optimizing resource-rich Venezuela to generate the income needed to turn the country around could take until 2030 and beyond, according to some oil analysts. Thus, any decline in the price of oil at the start of this week could be short lived.

Precious metal producers Fresnillo (+4.2%) and Endeavour Mining (+4.3%) are also among the top stock market risers in London this morning, tracking the jump in gold and silver today. (theguardian.com)

Mounting Civilian Casualties

U.S. forces killed at least 80 people, including civilians, during the military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas on Saturday, according to a senior Venezuelan official. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel said yesterday that 32 Cuban military and intelligence personnel were killed in the U.S. attacks. According to two U.S. officials, around 6 U.S. soldiers were injured. Isabela Espadas Barros Leal and Genevieve Glatsky report for the New York Times; Jack Nicas reports for the New York Times. (justsecurity.org)

Photos show aftermath of US strikes on Venezuela - January 4, 2026 | Reuters

Thoughts…

The motivation for the attacks was certainly financial, which raises a concerning realization. The United States military will now take direct action to further economic goals. The world order of 2024 and the post-Cold War way of things are over. With its end comes the opening of a Pandora’s box, with nothing but a plurality of unpalletable options.

The goal here is clearly to make a statement, project US power, and gain control over strategic resources in the western hemisphere. The United States embraces a doctrine of multipolarity. The situation in Venezuela constitutes an absolute violation of international law, and framing the operation as law enforcement is a blatant deflectionary farce.

The goal of gaining control over Venezuela’s significant regional resources, primarily oil, is preeminent and short-sighted. The reality is that this is beginning to look like a one-trick pony.

Yes, the United States managed to capture Maduro. However, the Maduro government rapidly closed ranks around VP and Oil Minister Delcy Rodriguez. The government remains stable, and the Venezuelan population did not rise up and topple the ruling party.

The global response has been to condemn the action; the lack of sanctions or any other disciplinary action suggests that the US will get away with this scot-free.

The successful capture of Maduro does not translate into direct US control of Venezuela or its resources; Maduro’s government’s policy has not changed, as Rodriguez is merely maintaining the offers that Maduro’s government has been making for months.

The civilian deaths are likely to increase anti-US sentiment in the country, and this may cause a situation where cooperation with the United States would be detrimental to the current government’s maintaining stability.

Discussions between Qatari officials and Delcy Rodriguez and her brother suggest that there may have been communication or pre-planning. However, discussions do not mean that Rodriguez agreed to or even facilitated the attack.

The biggest thing to watch is how Delcy and the current leadership choose to handle oil resources and interact with American companies. Regardless, the US will not see profit in the near term if it is given access to the Oil Reserves.

Investment will likely reach 100 billion, and to reach previous levels, we are looking at a decade.

Which means short-term, this move is a gamble to givethe US access to large upfront investment without short-term profit and significant exposure.

In the immediate term, this allows the US to halt Oil exports to China and make a significant destabilizing move, suggesting that sovereignty is no longer a functional deterrent to foreign hostile action under the new world order.

A dangerous precedent that could backfire on the US, as China could see it as a green light for more serious action in Taiwan.

Global Conflict Updates: Global Violence and Instability on the Rise

Thailand/Cambodia: The Preah Vihear Redux and Chinese Mediation

The border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, which reignited in December 2025, centers on the disputed territories surrounding the Preah Vihear temple complex. Despite a declared ceasefire on December 27, the situation remains volatile and heavily militarized.

* Displacement Crisis: The conflict has triggered a massive humanitarian crisis, with over 409,000 civilians remaining displaced as of January 1, 2026. The internal refugee flow is concentrated in Siem Reap and Banteay Meanchey provinces, destabilizing the local economy and healthcare systems.

* Sovereignty Violations: The Cambodian Foreign Ministry has formally protested continued Thai military occupation of disputed zones, including the erection of barriers and barbed wire in areas like Prey Chan and Chouk Chey villages. Phnom Penh categorizes these actions as “internationally illegal” and a violation of the ceasefire terms.

* China’s Role: Notably, the ceasefire and subsequent de-escalation talks are being monitored and mediated by China. Beijing’s statement that the ceasefire is being “gradually implemented” highlights its growing role as the primary security arbiter in mainland Southeast Asia, filling the vacuum left by perceived US disengagement from the region’s granular disputes. This conflict serves China’s interests by reinforcing its leverage over both Bangkok and Phnom Penh.

According to official report released by the Cambodian National Committee for Disaster Management (NCDM) on 18 December, more than 151 000 families — over 490 000 people — have been evacuated, including over 260 000 women and more than 158 000 children. In parallel, Thai authorities have reported extensive evacuations of civilians from border districts, with many temporarily accommodated in government-managed shelters or relocated to host communities.

The conflict has had significant humanitarian, economic, and diplomatic repercussions. Massive civilian displacement has strained local resources and disrupted normal life in border provinces, with thousands fleeing homes to escape fighting. Economically, border closures and disruptions to trade and tourism have hurt Cambodia’s recovery remittances from Cambodian migrant workers in Thailand have dropped sharply due to the exodus of workers, border trade has stalled, and tourism revenues have fallen as security fears deter visitors. The downturn in cross-border commerce and movement has also contributed to inflationary pressures and slowed growth in key sectors. (who.int)

Mr. Pen Bona, Minister Delegate to the Prime Minister and Chairman of the Royal Government Spokesperson’s Unit, said today that Cambodia considered the activities of erecting barriers, spreading barbed wire, and stealing property from innocent Cambodian civilians by Thai soldiers to be an internationally illegal act and a violation of the international border line that is unacceptable.

(khmertimeskh.com) ← Click the link to read full statement by Minister Bona

Rwanda/DRC: The Lithium War and M23 Resurgence

The conflict in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has escalated into a high-intensity interstate war, thinly veiled as a counter-insurgency operation.

* Battle for Uvira: On January 3, 2026, violent clashes erupted around the strategic city of Uvira in South Kivu. The M23 rebel group, backed by Rwandan special forces, launched an offensive to seize this key logistical hub, which sits on the border with Burundi.

* Proxy Warfare and Denial: The DRC government and UN experts accuse Rwanda of deploying between 5,000 and 7,000 troops to support M23 operations. Kigali consistently denies this, framing the conflict as an internal Congolese issue involving the protection of Tutsi minorities against the FDLR genocidal militia. However, the capture of uniformed Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) soldiers by the FARDC (Congolese Army) provides tangible evidence of direct involvement.

* Resource Drivers: This conflict is fundamentally a resource war. The Eastern DRC is rich in “3T” minerals (tin, tantalum, tungsten) and, crucially, emerging lithium deposits. Control over these territories allows actors to dominate the supply chains essential for the global electronics and EV industries. The collapse of the US-brokered “Washington Accord” demonstrates the limits of diplomatic pressure when core economic interests are at stake.

Violent fighting broke out Saturday (January 3, 2026) between the Rwandan-backed M23 armed group and pro-Kinshasa forces in several towns around the strategic eastern DR Congo city of Uvira, local sources said.

“Since 3 am (0100 GMT), violent clashes between M23 rebels and Wazalendo (pro-Kinshasa militias) and the armed forces of the Republic have been reported in several localities in the territory of Uvira,” in South Kivu province, Kelvin Bwija, Uvira civil society coordinator, told AFP. (thehindu.com)

Goma, January 4, 2026 – An airstrike attributed to the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC) killed at least seven civilians and injured more than forty on Friday, January 2, 2026, in Masisi-Centre, in the rural district of the same name, Masisi territory, North Kivu province, eastern Congo, according to a still provisional toll.

According to several witnesses, it was around 1:00 PM local time when a Congolese army drone reportedly dropped an explosive device on a building hosting the sub-base of the NGO War Child. The blast also damaged several homes located in the immediate vicinity of the affected site.

This aerial operation caused widespread panic among the population and led to the temporary paralysis of socio-economic activities in the center of Masisi. The victims were primarily civilians who were going about their daily lives just meters from the site of the attack.

Masisi, a strategic territory at the heart of the conflict

The territory of Masisi, in North Kivu, is among the areas controlled by the M23. It notably hosts the Rubaya mining site, one of the world’s largest deposits of coltan, a strategic mineral that provides a significant portion of the tantalum used in the electronics industry and new technologies. (sosmediasburundi.org)

Sudan/RSF: The Forgotten Collapse and Drone Warfare

As the war in Sudan approaches the end of its second year, the country faces the world’s largest displacement crisis, with famine conditions confirmed in North Darfur and South Kordofan.

* Technological Escalation: The conflict has seen a dangerous technological evolution. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have begun deploying suicide drones to target critical national infrastructure, including the Merowe Dam and air bases in Northern State. This capability suggests external technical assistance, likely facilitating the RSF’s ability to strike deep into SAF-controlled territory.

* The UAE Connection: Intelligence reports and open-source analysis indicate that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has functionally aligned with the RSF. This support involves financial integration, logistical facilitation via Chad and Libya (through Khalifa Haftar’s LNA), and political cover. The UAE’s strategic goal appears to be securing influence over Sudan’s Red Sea coastline and agricultural heartland, pitting it against Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who back the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF).

* Humanitarian Catastrophe: The war has killed over 150,000 people and displaced 12 million. The systematic destruction of the healthcare system and the obstruction of aid have weaponized hunger, with over 24 million people facing acute food insecurity.

The Sudanese military announced on Monday that it successfully intercepted multiple suicide drones launched by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) targeting the country’s largest dam and key military installations in the north. According to a statement from the army’s 19th Infantry Division, the drones were aimed at its headquarters, the Merowe Dam, and the Merowe Air Base in Northern State.

The army stated that “all the drones were shot down before reaching their targets” and affirmed its forces “are fully prepared to counter any threats” from the RSF. There was no immediate comment from the rebel group. This incident follows similar drone attacks reported on Sunday targeting El-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, and White Nile State in southern Sudan. Sudanese authorities have repeatedly accused the RSF of using drone attacks to target civilian infrastructure, including power stations, though the group typically refrains from commenting on such allegations. (https://en.yenisafak.com/)

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has become one of the most consequential external actors shaping the trajectory of Sudan’s civil war. While Abu Dhabi publicly denies taking sides and emphasizes humanitarian assistance and diplomatic engagement, a growing body of open-source reporting, intelligence assessments cited by U.S. officials, and observable battlefield dynamics indicate that the UAE has functionally aligned with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and, in parallel, coordinated with Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA). This involvement is not ideological but transactional and strategic. It combines military enablement, logistical facilitation, financial integration, and diplomatic insulation to secure economic access, expand regional influence, and shape post-conflict outcomes in a state whose geography and resources confer disproportionate strategic value. (blogs.timesofisrael.com)

Sudan is facing the world’s largest displacement and hunger crisis as the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which began in April 2023, approaches the end of its second year. Over 24.6 million people face acute food insecurity, with famine now confirmed in el-Fasher (North Darfur) and Kadugli (South Kordofan), and over 20 additional districts across Darfur and Kordofan at serious risk. Fatality estimates vary widely: ACLED recorded 29,582 deaths by the end of October 2024, while BBC and The New York Times (Oct 2025) report that the true toll could exceed 150,000 people, including an estimated 522,000 children who have died from malnutrition. (reliefweb.int)

Nigeria: The Failure of “Over-the-Horizon” Strikes

The security situation in Nigeria illustrates the limitations of US “over-the-horizon” counter-terrorism strategies when applied to complex, hybrid threat environments.

* Christmas Day Strikes: On December 25, 2025, US forces conducted airstrikes in Sokoto State targeting ISIS and Lakurawa militant cells. While touted as a success by the Trump administration, the strikes failed to degrade the operational capacity of the myriad armed groups in the region.

* Kasuwan Daji Massacre: Just days later, on January 3, 2026, armed “bandits”—criminal gangs distinct from ideological jihadists—raided Kasuwan Daji village, killing over 30 civilians and abducting dozens more. This underscores the bifurcation of the threat landscape: while the US focuses on “terrorist scum” (ISIS/Lakurawa), the primary threat to the civilian population remains the localized, economically motivated banditry that controls vast swathes of the northwest.

* Analysis: The US intervention, while symbolically potent, missed the root causes of the violence and failed to provide security for the local population, who remain vulnerable to reprisals and criminal predation.

LAGOS, Jan 5, 2026 (BSS/AFP) - Armed gangs killed more than 30 people and kidnapped others in a raid in Nigeria in the same state where hundreds of schoolchildren were abducted late last year, police said Sunday.

The gangs swept into Kasuwan Daji village, in the Kabe district of the western Niger State on Saturday and set a market ablaze, before looting shops for food, they said.

“Over 30 victims lost their lives during the attack, some persons were also kidnapped,” Wasiu Abiodun, Niger state police spokesman said.

President Bola Tinubu’s office said the attackers may have been “terrorists” fleeing from parts of northwestern Nigeria following Christmas Day airstrikes by the United States that targeted militants linked to the Islamic State group. (bssnews.net)

Yemen: The Saudi-UAE Proxy Divorce

The conflict in Yemen has mutated from a war against the Houthis into a direct confrontation between erstwhile allies Saudi Arabia and the UAE, threatening to fragment the country permanently.

* Direct Confrontation: The trigger for this escalation was a series of Saudi airstrikes on the port of Mukalla in late December 2025, targeting UAE-supplied weapons shipments destined for the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC). This unprecedented “blue-on-blue” engagement marks the end of the Gulf consensus in Yemen.

* Recapture of Hadramout: On January 4, 2026, Saudi-backed government forces (Nation Shield Forces) launched a counter-offensive, retaking the provincial capital of Mukalla and forcing an STC withdrawal. This move is a strategic imperative for Riyadh, which seeks to prevent the UAE from controlling Yemen’s southern coast and creating a client state that would encircle Saudi Arabia.

* Permanent Fragmentation: In response, the STC has announced plans for an independence referendum within two years. Regardless of the current military fluidity, the political reality is that Yemen has effectively fractured into spheres of influence: Houthi-controlled North, Saudi-controlled East (Hadramout/Mahra), and UAE/STC-contested South (Aden).

The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) fighters on Sunday withdrew from the city of Mukalla in eastern Yemen’s province of Hadhramaut, state-run Yemen TV reported.

Mukalla is the most important city in Hadhramout governorate and houses the al-Dhabba oil port and al-Rayyan International Airport.

STC fighters were killed after Saudi Arabia carried out air strikes on positions held by the STC in southeastern Yemen, the separatist group said on Friday. Strikes were also reported at an airport and military base in Hadhramaut’s city of Seiyun.

The attacks came as forces backed by Riyadh launched an offensive to reclaim territory taken over by the STC in December.

The Hadhramaut governor, Salem al-Khanbashi, said that the Yemeni government now had full control of the province. (middleeasteye.net)

Thoughts…

Global Conflict in 2026 will be the new norm, as the power vacuum created by the US flight from its role as the world’s arbitrator and mediator will allow actors to seize control of resource-rich regions and resort to violence to overthrow weak governments.

Tyranny is on the rise around the globe, and impoverished populations are reaching breaking points all over Asia and Africa.

Control over vital resources in Africa, in particular, will see the continent face more refugee displacement, genocide, and bloodshed, and foreign weapons and financial support from regional destabilizers like the UAE will likely exacerbate the severity of the situation.

The rule of regional dominance will see situations like that between Taiwan and Cambodia become the new norm, as weaker Nations face the threat of military action, compliance, the cessation of territory, or forced economic integration.

Paramilitary groups like M23, the STC, and RSF will become much more critical as countries use these groups to fight wars with neighbors or rivals, whilst maintaining the illusion of diplomatic ties on the world stage.

We should expect global supply chain disruptions to occur more frequently as conflicts become more common and a more acceptable way to resolve tensions between nations.

I fear the age ushered in by the Trump regime will be one of violence and the redrawing of the lines and rules of the international order.

EU/Russia-Ukraine/China: A Potential Triad of Instability

Russia-Ukraine: The Crypto-Nuclear Nexus and Static Attrition

The war in Ukraine has settled into a grinding war of attrition on the front lines, characterized by static exchanges and high casualty rates. However, a bizarre and significant development has emerged in the economic domain.

* Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) Proposals: Reports from Russian media (Kommersant) and independent analysts suggest a US proposal for the joint management of the occupied ZNPP by the US, Russia, and Ukraine. The core of this proposal involves utilizing the plant’s massive electricity output for industrial-scale cryptocurrency mining (Bitcoin).

* Strategic Rationale: For the US (specifically the Trump administration’s crypto-friendly faction), this creates a new revenue stream and “monetizes” a stranded asset. For Russia, it offers a mechanism to convert energy directly into un-sanctionable digital liquidity. While seemingly far-fetched, the discussion highlights the increasing intersection of energy security, crypto-finance, and conflict resolution.

* The Peace Mirage: Diplomatic chatter regarding a 30-day ceasefire remains active but unfulfilled. Russian missile strikes on civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv continue unabated, signaling that Moscow still believes it can achieve a military victory or force a capitulation through exhaustion.

Speaking at a meeting with representatives of major Russian businesses on December 24, Putin said that Washington and Moscow have explored arrangements for operating the plant.

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is the largest nuclear facility in Europe and, before the war, accounted for roughly 20 percent of Ukraine’s electricity generation. The plant is located near the city of Enerhodar on the left bank of the Dnipro River. (united24media.com)

Russia has reaffirmed its support for the Venezuelan government, calling the U.S. attacks “extremely concerning and deserving of condemnation.” On Saturday, Russia’s Foreign Ministry wrote in a statement, “Venezuela must be guaranteed the right to determine its own future without destructive external interference, particularly of a military nature.” The statement came a day after a Russian missile attack on Ukraine’s second-largest city Kharkiv leveled a multistory residential apartment block, killing two people, including a 3-year-old child, while injuring 28 others. (democracynow.org)

EU Stability: The “Fortress Europe” Reality and Internal Fractures

The European Union is facing an existential internal crisis driven by the mainstreaming of far-right rhetoric and the securitization of migration.

* “Great Replacement” Discourse: The conspiracy theory of the “Great Replacement”—the idea that native European populations are being systematically replaced by non-European migrants—has moved from the political fringe to the center of policy debate in key member states like France, Germany, and Belgium. This shift is driving a hardline “Fortress Europe” policy, characterized by border walls, pushbacks, and the outsourcing of asylum processing.

* Transatlantic Rift: Relations with the US have deteriorated significantly. The Trump administration’s National Security Strategy, which employs nativist rhetoric, has emboldened European euroskeptics. EU leaders like Ursula von der Leyen find themselves squeezed between internal populist pressure and a hostile White House that views the EU as a competitor rather than an ally.

* Institutional Paralysis: The rise of far-right parties in the European Parliament has made consensus-building on critical issues like Ukraine aid and climate policy increasingly difficult, threatening the bloc’s ability to act as a cohesive geopolitical entity.

In several European countries, political parties that favor mass deportations and depict immigration as a threat to national identity come at or near the top of opinion polls: Reform U.K., the AfD, or Alternative for Germany and France’s National Rally.

President Donald Trump, who recently called Somali immigrants in the U.S. “garbage” and whose national security strategy depicts European countries as threatened by immigration, appears to be endorsing and emboldening Europe’s coarse, anti-immigrant sentiments.

Amid the rising tensions, Europe’s mainstream parties are taking a harder line on migration and at times using divisive language about race.

“What were once dismissed as being at the far extreme end of far-right politics has now become a central part of the political debate,” said Kieran Connell, a lecturer in British history at Queen’s University Belfast. Europe experiencing a growing sense of division.

Immigration has risen dramatically over the past decade in some European countries, driven in part by millions of asylum-seekers who have come to Europe fleeing conflicts in Africa, the Middle East and Ukraine. (ksat.com)

Right populist parties may be approaching a ceiling rather than a breakthrough moment. The Netherlands offered an early signal of this trend: Geert Wilders, one of Europe’s longest-standing populist figures, suffered a dramatic electoral defeat in October. Elsewhere, even entrenched leaders face headwinds. Viktor Orbán is confronting his strongest opposition in years despite his government’s control of the media, the politicization of the courts, and extensive civil society repression. Italy’s Giorgia Meloni is likely to retain power in 2026, but with a reduced majority and largely because she has transformed herself into a “normal” governing leader. The broader lesson may be that populists who govern like ideologues falter while those who survive do so by becoming more similar to the mainstream parties they once opposed.

A credible black swan in 2026 would be the emergence of a more disciplined alliance of illiberal or hard-populist governments inside the EU working in concert to weaken EU authority from within. In this case, the shock is not a Russian tank but a European veto. These actions would necessarily involve countries like Hungary or Slovakia leaving the EU, which is hard, but by blocking decisions, defying implementation, and turning Brussels into a convenient punching bag. (theparlimentmagazine.eu)

China-EU Trade War: The EV Battleground

The trade relationship between China and the EU has devolved into a tit-for-tat tariff war, with the automotive sector as the primary battlefield.

* Retroactive Tariffs: The European Commission has initiated customs registration for Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), a legal precursor to the imposition of retroactive tariffs. This move cites massive state subsidies that distort the market and threaten the survival of the European auto industry.

* China’s Countermeasures: Beijing’s 2026 tariff schedule reflects a strategic decoupling. It has lowered duties on high-tech components essential for its own industrial upgrading while maintaining or increasing barriers on European finished goods. Crucially, China’s “pause” on export controls for gallium and germanium applies only to the US, leaving European supply chains fully exposed to restrictions, further squeezing EU high-tech manufacturing.

The European Union’s executive body, the European Commission (EC), is set to commence customs registration of electric vehicles (EVs) imported from China on March 7, a move allowing the bloc to impose additional tariffs and potentially retroactive ones on Chinese EV imports in the future, as per an EC document published earlier on March 6 on its Official Journal.

The Commission claimed in the document that it had sufficient evidence tending to show that the imported Chinese EVs were being subsidised, adding that “injury, which is difficult to repair, is caused by massive imports of a subsidised product in a relatively short period.”

From last October to January, the European Union imported 177,839 units of Chinese EVs, reading an on-year rise of 14% and an increase of 11 % compared to the investigation period (October 2022–September 2023) in terms of monthly averages, according to the EC data.

“There is also a risk that an increasing number of (European) Union producers will suffer from diminishing sales and reduced production levels if imports continue at the current increased levels at allegedly subsidised prices from the PRC as evidenced so far after the initiation of the investigation,” the EC said. (seaisi.org)

Thoughts…

My most profound concern for Europe and Ukraine is the rise of nationalist and far-right parties and ideology. Facing Ukraine and the fallout of the immigration of millions of Immigrants from Africa and the Middle East, xenophobic sentiment is deeply entrenched.

Germany has extreme right groups like the AfD, and Spain is seeing movements among youth calling for the return of dictatorship and fascist leaders. France, the UK, Belgium, and Poland, as well as Nordic countries, are all seeing similar movements and are handling them with varying degrees of success.

Should too many member states fall to malleable and autocratic/techno-fascist aligned leaders, we could see a collapse of a unified Europe. I consider this very unlikely at this time, but it remains a potent and real threat to Europe in the upcoming 2026 elections.

Ukraine, whilst being pushed and facing steady but very slow territorial losses to Russia, is positioned to hold firm in 2026. A 90 billion loan will support the Ukrainian military and infrastructure needs at least through 2026.

The EU faces a difficult decision: the ideals of the previous Western World order will clash with the new Transactional Realism model of the global order. Environmental policies coming into effect in 2026 may strain the EU-China relationship, which has been evolving as US ties with Europe fray and the fortress Europe initiatives’ appetite for rare earths, steel, and other resources leads to further dependency on Chinese Exports.

Forced to confront this reality, we may see the EU waylay specific policies to avoid facing severe controls like those being used against the US.

Russia is facing a real challenge in 2026; Ukraine is funded, and losses are mounting. There will be no peace deal, and further shadow diplomacy with the United States is likely, as the US seeks alternative access to resources to circumvent Chinese controls. However, the Russian economy is flagging, and the cost to both Ukraine and Russia will be high. Still, peace or a successful end to the Special Military Operation is improbable.

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For $6 a month, you can help me bring more Firebrands to our cause. With your help, we can keep the Firebrand Project Burning throughout 2026.

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The Firebrand Project is not about providing the news; it is a rebellion of thought! It is about burning away the status quo and igniting an entirely new national dialogue.

For $6 a month, you can help me bring more Firebrands to our cause. With your help, we can keep the Firebrand Project Burning throughout 2026.

A last note… Even if you can’t become a paid subscriber, you can help fan the flames of resistance. By restacking, commenting, liking, and sharing every post on other media platforms, you can accelerate the ignition of our movement.

I appreciate each one of you.

Burn Bright.

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The Firebrand Report Newsletter (01/01/26)

As the geopolitical calendar turns to January 1, 2026, the international system is not merely fracturing; it is undergoing a controlled demolition and reconstruction defined by a new operating system: Kinetic Mercantilism. The events of the last 48 hours—from the first confirmed United States land strikes in Venezuela to the bureaucratic strangulation of the global silver supply in Beijing—confirm that the era of “strategic competition” has ended. It has been replaced by a raw, transactional struggle where sovereign territory is monetized to service debt, supply chains are weaponized to enforce capitulation, and alliances are reformatted based on industrial capacity rather than shared values.

This new year will be the rise of the Rentier State—where the state itself functions as a vehicle for private equity and foreign extraction—and the Resource Siege, where the flow of critical materials is dictated not by market demand, but by the strategic imperatives of state survival.

The Liquidation of the Commons: BLM, and the “Fast-Track” Sale of Sovereignty

An insidious development of the new year is occurring not on a foreign battlefield, but within the bureaucratic machinery of the United States Department of the Interior (DOI) and the Department of Energy (DoE). Intelligence indicates a convergence of “fast-track” permitting reforms, aggressive land-disposal mandates, and private equity vehicles funded by foreign sovereign wealth funds, creating a mechanism for the de facto privatization of American strategic territory. This phenomenon represents the importation of a “client state” economic model into the domestic United States, where federal assets are liquidated to satisfy the geopolitical debts and financial entanglements of the political elite.

Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Disposal Lists: Inventory for Sale

Coinciding with this influx of foreign capital is a renewed, aggressive push to dispose of “surplus” federal lands. The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has initiated scoping and public comment periods for significant oil and gas lease sales scheduled for the first and second quarters of 2026.

Utah

SALT LAKE CITY – The Bureau of Land Management today opened a 30-day public comment period to receive public input on plans to include 58 oil and gas parcels totaling 71,587 acres in Utah in a March 2026 sale. The comment period ends Jan. 2, 2026.

The BLM completed scoping on these parcels in October 2025 and is now seeking public comment on the parcels, potential deferrals, and the related environmental analysis. The BLM will use input from the public to help complete its review of each parcel.

Leasing is the first step in the process to develop federal oil and gas resources. Before development operations can begin, an operator must submit an application for permit to drill detailing development plans. The BLM reviews applications for permits to drill, posts them for public review, conducts an environmental analysis and coordinates with state partners and stakeholders.

All parcels that are included in a federal oil and gas lease sale include appropriate stipulations to protect important natural resources. (blm.gov)

Wyoming

CHEYENNE, Wyo. – The Bureau of Land Management today opened a 30-day public comment period to receive public input on plans to include 112 oil and gas parcels totaling 120,927 acres in Wyoming in a June 2026 sale. The comment period ends Jan. 20, 2026.

The BLM completed scoping on these parcels in November 2025 and is now seeking public comment on the parcels, potential deferrals, and the related environmental analysis. The BLM will use input from the public to help complete its review of each parcel.

Leasing is the first step in the process to develop federal oil and gas resources. Before development operations can begin, an operator must submit an application for permit to drill detailing development plans. The BLM reviews applications for permits to drill, posts them for public review, conducts an environmental analysis and coordinates with state partners and stakeholders.

All parcels that are included in a federal oil and gas lease sale include appropriate stipulations to protect important natural resources. (blm.gov)

Nevada

RENO, Nev. – The Bureau of Land Management today opened a 30-day public scoping period to receive public input on 4 oil and gas parcels totaling 10,211 acres that may be included in a June 2026 lease sale in Nevada. The scoping period ends December 17, 2025.

Leasing is the first step in the process to develop federal oil and gas resources. Before development operations can begin, an operator must submit an application for permit to drill detailing development plans. The BLM reviews applications for permits to drill, posts them for public review, conducts an environmental analysis and coordinates with state partners and stakeholders.

All parcels that are included in a federal oil and gas lease sale include appropriate stipulations to protect important natural resources. (blm.gov)

The Dakotas

BILLINGS, Mont. – The Bureau of Land Management today opened a 30-day public comment period to receive public input on plans to include 23 oil and gas parcels totaling 8,992 acres in North and South Dakota in an April 2026 sale. The comment period ends Jan. 8, 2026.

The BLM completed scoping on these parcels in November 2025 and is now seeking public comment on the parcels, potential deferrals, and the related environmental analysis. The BLM will use input from the public to help complete its review of each parcel.

Leasing is the first step in the process to develop federal oil and gas resources. Before development operations can begin, an operator must submit an application for permit to drill detailing development plans. (blm.gov)

While the Federal Land Policy and Management Act (FLPMA) generally mandates the retention of public lands, it contains provisions allowing for disposal if lands are deemed “uneconomical or difficult to manage” or if disposal serves specific public objectives. The concern among watchdogs is that the definition of “uneconomical” is being fluidly reinterpreted under the pressure of new executive mandates. “Fast-track” permitting reforms, initiated under Executive Order 14241 (”Immediate Measures To Increase American Mineral Production”), are lowering the threshold for what constitutes “disposable” land, prioritizing resource extraction over conservation or public access.

This creates a scenario where parcels identified for disposal or lease—ostensibly for domestic energy independence—are acquired by domestic shell entities that are ultimately capitalized by foreign sovereign wealth. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) includes “Ownership and Influence” restrictions scheduled to take effect for the 2026 tax year, aimed at preventing “Foreign Entities of Concern” (FEOC) from benefiting from tax credits. However, the opacity of private equity structures like Affinity, which can utilize complex layers of subsidiaries and debt financing, allows for a degree of separation that may circumvent these guardrails.

DoE Permitting Collusion and the “Fast-Track” to Corruption

The Department of Energy (DoE) has become the engine room for this new transactional landscape. Citing the imperative of “energy dominance,” the agency has aggressively streamlined permitting processes, removing checks and balances that were designed to prevent corruption and environmental degradation.

On May 12, 2025, the DoE issued a direct final rule rescinding regulations for presidential permits for cross-border transmission facilities. This drastic reduction in regulatory burden was framed as a deregulation effort to save billions, but it effectively removes a layer of executive oversight for critical infrastructure connecting the U.S. grid to foreign neighbors. Furthermore, the establishment of the National Energy Dominance Council (NEDC), headed by the Secretary of the Interior, has centralized authority to “fast-track” critical mineral projects, bypassing traditional interagency review processes.

On May 12, 2025, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced a proposal to streamline the application process for authorizations to transmit electricity from the United States to other countries (e.g., Canada and Mexico).[1] At the same time, DOE issued a “direct final rule” rescinding its regulations regarding applications for presidential permits “authorizing construction, connection, operation, and maintenance of facilities for transmission of electric energy at international boundaries.”[2] Taken together, these actions, if implemented as proposed, likely will make it faster, easier, and less expensive for companies to access cross-border markets and reduce their attendant regulatory obligations, including reporting requirements. (Foley.com)

Corruption red flags have emerged specifically regarding the Loan Programs Office (LPO). A November 2024 Inspector General report warned that the pressure to disburse hundreds of billions of dollars in loan authority before it expires in September 2026 has introduced severe risks of “fraud and abuse.” The report noted that the office might be entering into loans it otherwise would not due to insufficient due diligence, driven by the arbitrary deadline. The rapid expansion of loan authority to over $400 billion has created a “gold rush” atmosphere where well-connected firms—potentially those with ties to the administration or its foreign backers—may receive preferential treatment.

Reciprocal Real Estate Markets

Adding another layer to this complex web of land and influence is the reciprocal opening of real estate markets. As the U.S. considers opening federal lands to foreign-backed interests, Saudi Arabia is implementing a mirror policy. A new law, the Law of Real Estate Ownership by Non-Saudis, is set to take effect in January 2026. This legislation will allow foreign nationals and entities to own real estate in most Saudi cities, including the holy cities of Makkah and Madinah (with specific restrictions), for the first time.

Foreign property ownership is not new in Saudi Arabia. It has already been permitted for decades under the 2000 Real Estate Law. However, the 2025 Real Estate Law has now expanded foreign ownership of real property in Saudi Arabia. We summarize below the main differences between the two laws regarding (i) who may own property in Saudi Arabia; (ii) the types of property that can be owned under the two laws; (iii) the geographical limits of foreign property ownership under the two laws; and (iv) the possibility for foreigners to own property in Makkah and Madinah. (Curtis.com)

This move is part of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 strategy to diversify its economy, but in the context of U.S.-Saudi relations, it represents a deepening of the economic entanglement. It allows for a two-way flow of capital into sovereign territory, normalizing the idea that land—whether in Utah or Riyadh—is merely another asset class in the portfolio of global elites. The synchronization of these policy shifts suggests a high-level coordination that transcends standard diplomatic relations, pointing towards a grand bargain on land and resource access.

Thoughts…

The implementation of the 2026 Law in Saudi Arabia, opening the door for foreign investment, does not read as a simple case of synchronicity. Towards the end of 202,5 we saw the return of MBS to the United States. We have seen major deals facilitated by Kushner’s Affinity Partners. The EA Deal secured a 93% stake for the Saudi PIF in a United States gaming giant and exposed sensitive data on millions of Americans to foreign governments.

The Deals in Utah, Wyoming, Nevada, and the Dakotas all aim to take place in the first two quarters of 2026. A road has been paved through deregulation and the dismantling of US oversight bodies throughout 2025. The rule of thumb as we go into 2026 should be “if the shoe fits, wear it” – if it looks like the sale of US assets to foreign governments, then it is.

We know that the regime is desperately trying to privatize domestic resources for profit, and the opening of Saudi real estate creates the perfect venue for personal profit for the Regime and elite capitalist class as they sell off federal land in reciprocal enrichment deals.

Permitting processes gutted will allow for these sales to happen quickly and quietly, as the Regime plans a fire sale of American public land. These sales need to be closely watched; purchasers should be scrutinized. There is always a paper trail in real estate and corporate corruption. The entire system that has been implemented is dependent on a lack of scrutiny of these deals. The paperwork is filed… but no one looks, so it just happens.

Entities like Affinity Partners allow the ticking of boxes that would otherwise be prevented by foreign capital investments in US markets and assets.

EnergyNet Services LLC is a marketplace that currently holds a $2.00 nominal placeholder contract– it serves as a bidding platform for private equity. I have confirmed this contract, which is set to expire on February 28th, 2026.

In this model, the “U.S. Elites” (such as Kushner or Ross Perot Jr., whose firm, MPK Equity Partners, is a major investor in EnergyNet) control the infrastructure and the deal-making fees. At the same time, the Gulf Sovereigns gain the long-term leasehold and resource rights to U.S. soil.

The scaffolding is in place, all ready for a massive sell-off to private foreign buyers in the coming months. Stopping this should be a priority; the wholesale sell-off of America cannot be allowed to happen unimpeded.

Proxy War In Yemen Heats Up: Southern Transitional Council Is Defiant

The geopolitical shockwave from the southern Arabian Peninsula has intensified since the final days of 2025. The anti-Houthi coalition has not just fractured; it has engaged in direct fratricidal conflict, fundamentally altering the security architecture of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. What was once a proxy war against the Houthis has mutated into a war for the partition of South Yemen, pitting Saudi Arabia’s territorial insecurities against the UAE’s maritime ambitions.

Post-Airstrike Fallout: Mukalla and the Ultimatum

The crisis reached its kinetic tipping point on December 30, 2025, when Saudi-led coalition aircraft bombed the port of Mukalla in the Hadhramaut region. The target was a shipment of armored vehicles and weapons that had just arrived from the UAE, intended for the Southern Transitional Council (STC), the separatist group backed by Abu Dhabi.

* Saudi Justification: Riyadh officially justified the strike by stating the shipment constituted an “imminent threat” to its national security. The Saudi Foreign Ministry declared that the Kingdom’s national security is a “red line” and warned it would take “all necessary steps” to confront threats. This rhetoric underscores Riyadh’s deep fear of an independent, UAE-aligned South Yemen controlling its southern border and potential pipeline routes to the Arabian Sea.

* The Ultimatum: Following the strike, the Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) issued a 24-hour ultimatum for all UAE military forces to withdraw from the country, a demand endorsed by Riyadh.

* UAE Withdrawal: In response, the UAE announced on December 31 that it would withdraw its remaining military forces from Yemen. As of January 1, 2026, Emirati military cargo planes have been observed lifting off from Al Rayyan Airport in Hadhramaut, carrying hundreds of troops and equipment. This confirms the physical departure of uniformed UAE personnel, a move designed to de-escalate the immediate state-on-state confrontation.

By the end of December, a public spat between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over Yemen had crystallized into a defining moment for Gulf politics. What began in 2015 as a coordinated effort to restore Yemen’s government has exposed sharp divisions: Saudi airstrikes hit a shipment bound for a Yemeni port and the UAE moved to pull its remaining forces. The episode, sudden, public and raw, shows how once-aligned priorities can fracture when national security concerns collide with competing regional ambitions. The consequences touch more than Yemen’s fragile path to stability; they test the cohesion of the Gulf Cooperation Council and reshape how these states balance counterterrorism, separatism and outside influence.

Viewed against a broader strategic backdrop, Saudi concerns make sense. The kingdom has been trying to dial down tensions with Iran and relieve the resource drain of a protracted conflict; a fractured Yemen, propped up in part by separatist actors, would run counter to that aim. From Riyadh’s perspective, empowering groups such as the Southern Transitional Council might produce short-term gains against extremist groups but risks long-term fragmentation and the creation of ungoverned spaces vulnerable to Al-Qaeda, the Houthis, or criminal networks. Still, Saudi critiques have an ironic edge: the kingdom itself has a history of backing disparate Yemeni actors when it suited its interests. That history complicates the moral high ground Riyadh asserts.

What this means in the immediate term is a recalibration of power within Yemen, where the UAE’s forces departing leaves the Southern Transitional Council facing heightened vulnerability. This could lead to intensified clashes with government-aligned troops or opportunistic advances by Houthis, while affirming Saudi Arabia’s dominance in the coalition though at the risk of overextension as it fills the vacuum left by Emirati counter-terrorism expertise. Regionally, such discord strains Gulf Cooperation Council solidarity, complicating joint responses to Iranian influence or economic collaborations, and making the Red Sea’s strategic chokepoints more precarious amid potential disruptions to shipping lanes already targeted by Houthi actions. (Hornreview.org)

“Based on our commitment to the success of the coalition brothers’ efforts, and to preserve the achievements in ensuring security across the entire territory of our dear southern homeland, today the process of integrating our colleagues into the ‘Homeland Shield’ forces has begun, to carry out the duties and missions assigned to our armed forces, side by side with their brothers from all units of our southern armed forces,” Al-Naqeeb said in a statement broadcast by AIC television. (caliber.az)

Thoughts…

The statements from the STC and the formation of a more consolidated military force suggest that this conflict will take on a new dimension. Whereas the UAE had “anti-terrorism” forces in Yemen as part of the coalition to fight Hezbollah, this removal suggests that they are committing to a proxy conflict.

As the UAE backs off in an official capacity, the STC prepares for a large-scale conflict with Saudi Arabia. The STC is attempting to establish credibility not just as a paramilitary group but also as a governing body to ultimately achieve its secessionist goals of the reformation of Southern Arabia.

The further back the UAE pulls back on official channels, the more likely it is that they are committing more under-the-table resources to backing the STC. This conflict could cause mass instability in the region. Tension between two countries that have been making financial deals all over the world poses an interesting dynamic. On the surface, you have an ongoing conflict between the sovereign forces of Saudi Arabia and the proxy forces of the UAE in Yemen. Whilst they are also in dozens of massive financial commitments with the White House and other corrupt governments around the world.

The Fallout From Operation Justice 2025 (The Blockade of Taiwan)

While the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) announced the “successful completion” of Justice Mission 2025 on December 31, 2025, the operational reality in the Taiwan Strait on January 1, 2026, is one of sustained strangulation. The exercises have normalized the blockade as a tool of statecraft, creating immediate and severe economic repercussions that go far beyond a temporary military drill.

High Alert and the New Baseline

Taiwan remains on high alert. Although the massive armadas of the PLA Navy have pulled back, the island’s emergency maritime response centers remain fully operational, reflecting the understanding that the threat has not dissipated but merely changed form.

* Median Line Erased: On January 1, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported that 35 Chinese military aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait in the preceding 24 hours. This high volume of incursions confirms that the “buffer zone” of the median line has been permanently erased. The PLA has established a new normal where its forces operate freely within what was once considered a boundary.

* Coast Guard Presence: While PLA Navy combat ships have withdrawn, Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration (CGA) notes that Chinese Coast Guard vessels have not “completely left the area.” 14 CCG vessels were reported to have entered Taiwan’s contiguous zone during the drills, and many remain on station. This shift to “law enforcement” patrols creates a permanent, low-intensity quarantine capability, allowing Beijing to inspect or harass commercial shipping under a veneer of domestic legality.

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Ministry of National Defense tracked 17 Chinese naval vessels, eight official ships, and three military aircraft around Taiwan between 6 a.m. on Wednesday and 6 a.m. on Thursday.

One of the three People’s Liberation Army aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait median line in the country’s southwestern air defense identification zone, according to the MND. Taiwan also tracked two Chinese balloons.

In response, Taiwan deployed aircraft, naval ships, and coastal-based missile systems to monitor PLA activity. (taiwannews.com)

New Year’s Rhetoric from Xi Jinping is very aggressive

Chinese President Xi Jinping has pledged to achieve the “reunification” of China and Taiwan, calling Beijing’s long-held goal “unstoppable.”

In a New Year’s address delivered a day after China’s military wrapped up war games around Taiwan, Xi on Wednesday invoked the “bond of blood and kinship” between Chinese people on each side of the Taiwan Strait.

“The reunification of our motherland, a trend of the times, is unstoppable,” Xi said.

Xi also hailed the institution in 2025 of an annual “Taiwan Recovery Day”, marking the end of imperial Japan’s rule of the island at the end of World War II.

Xi’s speech came on the heels of two days of live-fire drills simulating a blockade of the island, in what officials called a “stern warning” against “separatist” and “external interference” forces. (aljazeera.com)

The drills were also paired with China Coast Guard “law enforcement inspections” near Taiwan’s ports and sensitive waters. The military used live fire to demarcate danger zones; the coast guard pushed forward under the banner of civilian authority. Together, they created a deliberately blurred space where drills, blockade enforcement and the prelude to war become difficult to distinguish. This is precisely the “quarantine” approach long warned about by foreign think tanks. Such low-intensity, high-continuity actions could inflict immediate economic and social shocks — and paradoxically accelerate escalation rather than contain it. (taipaitimes.com)

Supply Chain Impact: The “Blockade Tax”

The economic impact of the drills has been immediate and punitive, affecting global shipping and semiconductor logistics. The world is witnessing a “supply chain cardiac arrest” as the arteries of global trade begin to constrict.

* Shipping Rates and Insurance: The exercises have caused a spike in shipping insurance premiums, with underwriters now treating the Taiwan Strait as a high-risk zone comparable to the Red Sea. This “blockade tax” is forcing major carriers to reroute vessels around the eastern side of the Philippines or impose significant surcharges. Freight intelligence platform Xeneta warns that trade is being “weaponized” and that the geopolitical dashboard is “flashing red,” with rate volatility expected to persist through 2026.

* Semiconductor Disruption: The drills disrupted air freight corridors essential for TSMC, leading to the cancellation of over 850 flights. While a total shutdown was avoided, the “cold start” nature of the drills—announced one day, live-fire the next—demonstrated Beijing’s ability to sever the supply of raw materials (chemicals, silicon) and the export of finished chips at will. The backlog of orders for advanced logic chips is expected to compound, creating delays that will ripple through the global tech sector well into Q1 2026.

United States Capitulation: A Successful Exercise for China

In a twist, US officials in an interesting turn of events amidst the intensified US-China technological warfare have granted Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) a renewed annual license permitting direct export of US chip-making equipment directly to its Nanjing plant located in China.

This decision, announced on 1 January 2026, provides continuity to the proceedings of TSMC as a manufacturing company, which has affirmed the decision to Reuters. (techi.com)

TSMC and the Failure of Decoupling

In a tacit admission that the U.S. remains critically dependent on Taiwan-based production and cannot fully sever ties with the Chinese supply chain, the U.S. Department of Commerce granted TSMC an annual license on January 1, 2026, to continue importing U.S. chipmaking tools to its facility in Nanjing, China.

* The Waiver: This license replaces the expired “validated end-user” status and allows TSMC (along with Samsung and SK Hynix) to maintain production of mature-node chips (16nm and above) in China without applying for individual export licenses for every shipment.

* Strategic Irony: This decision highlights the paradox of U.S. policy. While Washington attempts to strangle China’s advanced AI chip development, it is forced to authorize the flow of equipment to maintain the global supply of legacy chips, which are essential for everything from automobiles to consumer electronics. It underscores the impossibility of a clean “decoupling” in the semiconductor sector.

* Advanced Production: Simultaneously, TSMC has begun volume production of its most advanced 2nm (N2) chips in Kaohsiung, Taiwan.1 This further concentrates the world’s most critical computing power on the threatened island, increasing the “Silicon Shield” incentive for U.S. defense while maximizing the global catastrophe that would result from a conflict.

Thoughts…

The most significant update today is the US decision to change its policy on importing US technology into China. Returning to Biden, the United States’ best edge over China in the AI race has been our monopoly on advanced technology developed in tandem with Taiwan.

This decision comes right after the successful encirclement and blockade of Taiwan, which suggests that not only was the operation successful,l but China demonstrated that it can extract concessions from the US by threatening the supply chain that is most important to the ruling class in the United States.

This sets a dangerous precedent and, from a global perspective, shows just how much leverage China has over the worldwide shipping and distribution of the most essential assets in current international markets.

The success of this measure means that China will almost certainly do it again if the United States pushes too far. In 2026, the Corporate Oligarch Class and Trump, and the United States, are not the ones holding the cards, but Xi Jinping and the People’s Republic of China hold geopolitical leverage.

The end of an Era marked with a simple change in permitting policy.

An Overview of Canadian and European Realignment, The EU, and The Russian Invasion of Ukraine

The SAFE Initiative and Canada’s Pivot

In a historic realignment, Canada has formally joined the European Union’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) fund. Prime Minister Mark Carney announced the agreement, which allows Canadian defense companies preferential access to the €150 billion ($170 billion) EU loan program.

Announcement by Prime Minister Carney on Dec. 1st 2025

Today, the Prime Minister, Mark Carney, announced the conclusion of negotiations for Canada’s participation in SAFE – unlocking billions of dollars in potential defence opportunities for Canadian businesses. SAFE provides up to $244 billion in loans to EU Member States to support large-scale defence projects, including acquiring critical capabilities such as ammunition, missiles, drones, artillery systems, and infantry weapons. As all 27 EU Member States increase defence investments, greater cooperation on procurement opens massive new opportunities for Canadian manufacturers to build and export Canadian-made technologies and capabilities.

As EU countries strengthen their defence capabilities through SAFE, Canadian participation will give our defence industry expanded access to the European market, attract new reliable suppliers for the Canadian Armed Forces, and catalyse massive private investment in Canada – creating higher-paying careers, growing Canadian industries, and bolstering transatlantic defence readiness. With this agreement, Canada will become the only country outside of Europe with preferential access.

Canada’s participation in SAFE will be facilitated by the new Defence Investment Agency, which will remove red tape, centralise review and approval, and bolster industrial capacity. With negotiations now concluded, Canada and the EU will work to swiftly ratify the bilateral SAFE agreement, with the goal to officially launch Canada’s participation in SAFE in the coming weeks. (pm.gc.ca)

Decoupling from the US: This move is explicitly framed as a diversification away from the United States. Carney stated that “no more will over 70 cents of every dollar of Canadian military capital spending go to the U.S.,” a direct response to the trade aggression and unpredictability of the Trump administration.

Industrial Integration: The agreement integrates the Canadian defense industrial base with the European Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB). It allows Canadian firms to bid on joint EU procurement projects and access low-interest loans for rearmament. This creates a parallel defense architecture that bypasses the U.S. ITAR regime and strengthens “strategic autonomy” for both Canada and Europe. It is a clear signal that middle powers are hedging against the reliability of the U.S. security umbrella.

The EU Struggles to Unify: The Frozen Assets Deadlock and the “Reparations Loan”

The EU has finalized a €90 billion financial support package for Ukraine for 2026-2027, but the mechanism reveals deep internal fissures regarding the use of frozen Russian assets.

* The Belgium Block: Plans to directly use the €210 billion in frozen Russian assets (mostly held by Euroclear in Belgium) as collateral for a “Reparations Loan” were effectively blocked by Belgium, backed by the European Central Bank (ECB). They feared that confiscating the assets or using them directly as collateral would destabilize the euro and invite massive legal retaliation from Moscow.

* The Compromise: Instead, the €90 billion will be raised through conventional EU borrowing on capital markets, backed by the EU budget’s “headroom.” While the interest generated by the frozen assets (approximately €3 billion/year) will continue to flow to Ukraine, the principal remains untouched. This decision represents a victory for financial caution over moral restitution, leaving Ukraine’s long-term reconstruction funding unresolved and signaling to Moscow that its core reserves remain safe from outright seizure.

“We have a deal. Decision to provide 90 billion euros of support to Ukraine for 2026-27 approved,” António Costa, president of the European Council, announced in a post in the early morning hours of Dec. 19.

Due to internal disagreement, the European Council could not come up with a deal that would have allowed the EU to use frozen Russian assets to rebuild and defend Ukraine.

“The European Council agrees to provide a loan to Ukraine of EUR 90 billion for the years 2026-2027 based on EU borrowing on the capital markets backed by the EU budget headroom,” the council’s statement reads. However, it noted that “any mobilization of resources of the Union’s budget as a guarantee for this loan will not have an impact on the financial obligations of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia.” In other words, those three dissenting EU countries opted out of the loan arrangement. (thewhig.com)

Putin’s Wartime Economy is on the Ropes and Mobilization

Contrary to Kremlin propaganda projecting stability, the Russian war machine is entering 2026 under severe structural strain, necessitating new and unpopular mobilization measures.

* 2026 Conscription Decree: On December 29, 2025, Vladimir Putin signed a decree introducing year-round conscription starting January 1, 2026. This fundamentally changes the draft from a bi-annual cycle to a continuous pipeline, effectively placing the entire eligible male population on permanent standby. The target is to recruit over 400,000 personnel in 2026 to replenish catastrophic losses. The decree itself calls for the compulsory draft of 261,000 people.

* Reservists for Infrastructure: A separate decree authorizes the deployment of active reservists to “special training camps” specifically to protect critical infrastructure. This indicates a shortage of manpower for rear-area security and frees up regular National Guard (Rosgvardia) troops for deployment to the front lines in Ukraine.

* Economic Stagnation: The Russian economy is projected to face “stagnation” in 2026. It is trapped between critical labor shortages (exacerbated by the draft), high inflation (officially admitted to be over 10%, but likely much higher), and the “cannibalization” of the civilian sector to feed the defense industry. Military spending now consumes nearly 40% of the federal budget, crowding out all other investment. The ruble is forecast to weaken further, averaging over 90 to the dollar, as oil revenues decline due to the “dark fleet” discount and lower global prices.

Thoughts…

The EU, Ukraine, and Canada are at a critical juncture. Russia is desperate and vulnerable, Ukraine suffers, but it has developed the means to make Russia and Putin suffer alongside it.

The United States has abandoned Europe and is working with Russia to advance its goals, despite previous mutual defense commitments and alliances.

In a world of transactional realism, it does not matter who your allies are, but who you can work with to get Nuclear Power to mine your Bitcoin. Canada and the EU, with the UK and other NATO states, are realizing that the US is on the verge of being an adversary. Whilst the EU and other former US allies were hesitant to accept reality and hoped that some measure of support could be maintained, we saw the essential shift toward the final months of 2025. Canada’s alignment with the EU and its pivot toward defense spending and manufacturing without the US are significant.

One of the significant ways the US was able to project soft power was through control over the supply of weapons and technology to friendly allied nations.

As the US has shown time and again under Trump, it was more than willing to cancel orders to Ukraine, vulnerable to delays, and prone to signing contracts without ensuring commitment. The change to a more dependable means of collective defense has become clear.

Canada can be the industrial and resource-dominant lynchpin in this relationship. This marks a significant shift away from the US-dominated era of foreign policy toward a world in which Western democracies form a new coalition in the face of rising autocracy and fading US dominance.

The situation in Russia is critical; casualties for Russia are well in excess of 1 million, the wartime economy is propped up by Chinese assistance, and the workforce in Russia is shrinking. Putin is turning to countries like India to bring in foreign workers to support Russia’s wartime workforce needs. Ukraine caused massive blackouts in Moscow, and its persistent and well-directed drone bombing campaign on Russian Oil Infrastructure and Military production is taking a toll. The question of whether Russia will win the war of attrition is not yet specific.

The biggest challenge facing the EU will be the rising tide of Nationalism and Xenophobia, in many cases driven by Russia’s manipulation. The United States is actively trying to export fascism and is doing it through corporate and back-door connections. The EU faces rising discontent, and certain nations are becoming increasingly unwilling to contribute to Ukraine.

Should they become too divided or choose to opt out of mutual defense when Russia attempts to invade NATO territory, it could cause a fracturing and ultimately significantly weaken Europe.

Russia and Putin are actively waging an asymmetrical war on Europe and Nordic Countries, violating Airspace, conducting sabotage attacks, and cutting undersea cables.

If Europe can overcome these hurdles, work with Canada, and ultimately support Ukraine to collapse Russia and topple Putin… a massive shift in the Global Order is possible. It would absolutely see a cascade effect in the US, as Russian manipulation is currently all over the federal government.