Dan, Andrew and James are back to break down the state of public opinion in federal politics. What do they make of Mark Carney’s bump in the polls after his Davos speech? What challenges does Pierre Poilievre face after passing his leadership review? What lanes are open to the New Democrats as they choose a new leader?

And would it be a strategic error or the right time for Carney’s Liberals to call a snap federal election this spring?

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister’s office and was the Liberals’ pollster during the 2015, 2019 and 2021 federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton’s breakthrough 2011 election.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

What are the major issues in this provincial election and what should we keep an eye on as we enter the last stretches of this campaign?

Joining me on this new episode of The Writ Podcast are Amanda Bittner, a professor in the department of political science at Memorial University, and Sarah Smellie, a journalist for the Canadian Press based out of St. John’s.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

It’s been awhile since the last episode of The Writ Podcast — but it’ll be back! The podcast is not going to come out on a regular schedule, but new episodes will be published periodically, especially during election and leadership campaigns. Until next time, thanks for listening!

There’s a lot going on in this last week before election day. Ads, tour, get-out-the-vote. So, what’s the story on how parties actually get it done?

Throughout this election, three veteran party organizers have been joining me on The Writ Podcast to explain the ins and outs of campaigning — and they’re back one last time!

Laura D'Angelo has worked Tour Central for the Liberals in elections both federally and provincially, and was director of campaign operations for the Liberals in 2019. She is the vice-president, national strategy and public affairs at Enterprise Canada.

Melanie Paradis was director of communications for past Conservative Party leader Erin O'Toole and is president of Texture Communications.

Cheryl Oates was the executive director of communications and planning for former Alberta premier Rachel Notley. She’s principal at GT Executive Advisors and is the co-host of The Discourse podcast.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

There’s a brief pause as the graphics come on the screen and the music pipes in. It took a long time, but the network is now ready to project a government. Will it be majority or minority, Liberal or Conservative (or something else)?

It’s the most dramatic moment of every election night special. But a lot of work goes into making that call. Just how is it done?

In this episode of The Writ Podcast, I’m joined by Meg Banks, senior producer, CBC News Elections. I’ve worked with her on many elections in the past and I’m really pleased she could join me to explain how the decision desk makes its calls.

(This is an extra episode of the podcast — I’ll be back with another episode tomorrow!)

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

On this episode of The Writ Podcast, the Pollster Panel is back to survey the current landscape, discuss the reliability of the polls and what they may or may not be missing, and how public opinion research will be used by all the political parties in this final stretch of the campaign.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and was the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

So, what’s the process behind candidate vetting? And how do parties go about compiling, and then using, opposition research?

Plus, Pierre Poilievre has been putting on some massive rallies. How are these organized — and are they worth the effort?

Throughout this election, three veteran party organizers are joining me on The Writ Podcast to explain the ins and outs of campaigning.

Laura D'Angelo has worked Tour Central for the Liberals in elections both federally and provincially, and was director of campaign operations for the Liberals in 2019. She is the vice-president, national strategy and public affairs at Enterprise Canada.

Melanie Paradis was director of communications for past Conservative Party leader Erin O'Toole and is president of Texture Communications.

Cheryl Oates was the executive director of communications and planning for former Alberta premier Rachel Notley. She’s principal at GT Executive Advisors and is the co-host of The Discourse podcast.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

This week on The Writ Podcast, I’m joined ahead by the Pollster Panel to break it all down.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and was the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Throughout this election, I’ll be joined periodically by three veteran party organizers to explain the ins and outs of campaigning — and help make some sense of just what is happening out on the hustings.

Vandana Kattar was the director of operations, outreach and planning for former prime minister Justin Trudeau and was one of the co-hosts of the Race to Replace podcast during the past Liberal leadership contest.

Melanie Paradis was director of communications for past Conservative Party leader Erin O'Toole and is president of Texture Communications.

Cheryl Oates was the executive director of communications and planning for former Alberta premier Rachel Notley. She’s principal at GT Executive Advisors and is the co-host of The Discourse podcast.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Plus, just how will parties go about polling the electorate over the next six or so weeks?

This week on The Writ Podcast, I’m joined ahead by the Pollster Panel to break it all down.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and was the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Plus, we also discuss the writ drop in Ontario. Has Doug Ford made the right call in calling an early election, or has he taken a big risk?

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and was the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns. Dan is also hosting the Race to Replace limited podcast series on the Liberal leadership contest.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

There’s a lot to unpack, and this week I’m joined by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry and The Globe and Mail’s Stephanie Levitz to try to make some sense of it.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Looking to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app? You can find it on:

* Apple Podcasts

* Spotify

* Overcast

* Pocket Casts

* Podcast Addict

* YouTube Music

* RSS Feed

We also discuss provincial polls coming out of Ontario and Quebec, where two incumbent premiers (Doug Ford and François Legault) face two very different futures.

Note to listeners: I suggest transitioning over to the dedicated podcast feed for The Numbers, as in the new year I intend to reserve this feed for episodes of The Writ Podcast. You can follow The Numbers on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pocket Casts, PodcastAddict or wherever you listen to podcasts. New episodes will still be sent out via email to subscribers of The Writ, but it will be embedded in the email, rather than sent to the podcast feed.

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

On this week’s episode of The Numbers, we also break down Tim Houston’s PC landslide in the Nova Scotia election and take a look at some recent polls out of Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island.

Note to listeners: I suggest transitioning over to the dedicated podcast feed for The Numbers, as in the new year I intend to reserve this feed for episodes of The Writ Podcast. You can follow The Numbers on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pocket Casts, PodcastAddict or wherever you listen to podcasts. New episodes will still be sent out via email to subscribers of The Writ, but it will be embedded in the email, rather than sent to the podcast feed.

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

On this episode of The Numbers, we take a look at the federal polling landscape. We then discuss some new numbers out of Quebec before taking a deep-dive into the Nova Scotia provincial election. Could anything put a big win by Tim Houston’s PCs in doubt, and who has the inside track on forming the official opposition?

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

We also take a look at the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP. Then, we discuss new provincial polling numbers ahead of Nova Scotia’s election and Ontario’s apparently upcoming election. Finally, we chat about new polling from Quebec that continues to show trouble for Premier François Legault.

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

We also dissect some of the latest federal polling and fundraising numbers, plus we take a look at where things stand in the early days of the Nova Scotia provincial election campaign. Then, we close with a U.S.-themed Quiz!

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

What happened in these three provincial campaigns — and what lessons might be drawn out of them as Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh prepare for the upcoming federal election?

The Pollster Panel is back on The Writ Podcast to provide their perspectives.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and was the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

THE NUMBERS: The podcast is now available for everyone every week, so if you missed this week’s episode, in which we dive into the Saskatchewan election results as well as the latest federal polls, you can watch it on YouTube here or find it in your favourite podcasting app. If you’d like to become a member of the Patreon and listen to the weekly mailbag episode, as well as a special episode every month, you can join the Patreon here.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

We also discuss the mini-revolt within the Liberal caucus and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau’s leadership. There’s also a new poll giving the Saskatchewan NDP the lead ahead of Monday’s vote, and another poll showing Doug Ford’s Ontario PCs on cruise control. Does it mean an early election?

Note to listeners: Public episodes of The Numbers will now be published every week! The Writ Podcast isn’t going away, but its publishing schedule will be irregular. You can expect one or two new episodes of The Writ Podcast every month, featuring some of my regular panelists and focusing on special events, like elections and leadership contests. When there isn’t a new episode of The Writ Podcast, you’ll get the latest episode of The Numbers right here in your feed and/or inbox.

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

We then play a Provincial Election Draft and answer questions from the listener mailbag about the machinations in Ottawa.

Apologies for the poor audio from me during the first half of this episode.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get extended mailbag segments and bonus episodes, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

As suggested in the podcast, if you’d like to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app, follow the instructions after clicking on this link.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

Election livestreams on Saturday and Monday can be found here.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Back to provide some updates from the campaign trails on this episode of The Writ Podcast (and a day early!) are Richard Zussman, Global News legislative reporter in B.C., Jacques Poitras, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in New Brunswick, and Adam Hunter, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Saskatchewan.

THE NUMBERS: This week’s members-only episode of The Numbers will be available later on Thursday here. We’ll delve more deeply into some of the polling numbers coming out of British Columbia, along with all the latest in provincial and federal politics from across the country.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

In the mailbag, we answer questions about the potential for prorogation and just how low the Liberals' floor could go. Finally, the tables are turned for a Mini Quiz for Philippe.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

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To update us on the latest developments in these two elections, I’m joined this week on The Writ Podcast by Richard Zussman, legislative reporter for Global News in B.C., and Jacques Poitras, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in New Brunswick.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, which is available for Patreon members here, we break down some of the latest federal polls and what they might mean for election timing. Then, we delve into the three provincial campaigns in British Columbia, New Brunswick and Saskatchewan, where polls raise more questions than they do provide answers about who is going to win. We also look at the Ontario byelection results in Bay of Quinte.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

We also take a look at some new polls out of British Columbia and Thursday’s writ drop in New Brunswick.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

But a potential catalyst for upheaval will come very soon on Monday, as voters go to the polls in the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections, contests in which all three parties, plus the Bloc Québécois, have something at stake.

To set us up for what should be a fascinating few months, I’m joined this week by the pollster panel.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

Join us at 9:30 PM ET / 8:30 PM CT on September 16 for our livestream of the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona byelections. You will find the livestream here.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, which is available for Patreon members here, it's all about the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections. We set our over/under lines and make some predictions about the outcomes. We also chat about some of the new polls out this past week that put the Conservatives at a new high of 45%, and the NDP at a new low.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

In the mailbag, we answer a listener question on how a Trump election win may or may not change Canada's political landscape. Then, Philippe tests me against a machine in the Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

The news broke just after Richard Zussman of Global News and I had recorded an episode about the state of B.C. politics on Wednesday morning. Once it emerged that everything had changed, we had to get together again to re-record. And with B.C. political news breaking so fast, I couldn’t wait until the usual Friday to put this episode up in your feeds.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, which will be available for Patreon members on Thursday here, Philippe and I will break down the implications of this move on B.C. politics. We’ll also have lots of new poll numbers to discuss, as usual!

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

We compare caucus sizes in response to a listener question, and then Philippe has a Quiz on historical premiers.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

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LES CHIFFRES: Une vraie course au PLQ ? Philippe et Éric discutent des plus récents chiffres fédéraux au Québec, y compris de certains sondages qui placent les conservateurs et le Bloc nez à nez. Au-delà des chiffres individuels, quelles ont été les tendances au cours de l'été ? Nous discutons aussi de la course à la chefferie du PLQ qui compte maintenant deux candidats officiels, ainsi que deux (ou trois ?) candidatures potentielles. Le PLQ aura-t-il donc une « vraie course » à la chefferie ? Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

But polls suggest the race in Saskatchewan could be the closest in decades. Could the dynasty come to an end when the province goes to the polls in October?

On this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast, I’m joined by Adam Hunter, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Regina, to look ahead to Saskatchewan’s upcoming campaign.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I discuss the latest poll showing the Conservatives narrowly ahead in Quebec. We also chat about a new poll from British Columbia and the launch of the Canadian Future Party, we answer listener questions and put our wits to the test with a Quiz!

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

In our mailbag, we discuss what a Canadian VP sweepstakes would look like, plus Philippe tests me with a Prairie-themed Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

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On this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast, I’m joined by Jacques Poitras, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Fredericton, to break down the upcoming campaign in New Brunswick, one of three provinces scheduled to hold elections in the coming months.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we discuss the two byelections that have been set for Sept. 16 in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona. The Liberals are defending the first and the NDP the second. Between Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh, who has the most to lose?

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

(Note: the Liberals announced their candidate for Elmwood–Transcona shortly after we recorded.)

This week, we also chat about the announcements from Seamus O'Regan and Francis Drouin that they won't be running for re-election and answer listener questions from the mailbag — and provide a Margin of Error 101 refresher course. Then, Philippe tests me with a Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

In the mailbag, we answer a question about whether or not we can calculate the odds of big swings happening in future elections. Then, Philippe is put to the test with an impromptu Quiz.

Regular episodes of The Writ Podcast will be returning soon!

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

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* Is it better to have an election in the summer or the winter?

* Are the Liberals still the "natural governing party"?

* Which past party leader who lost an election might have had a better shot at a different time?

* Plus answers to questions on projection models, polling methods and more!

This episode was recorded on July 3. We'll be back with a regular episode next week!

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

To break it all down, I’m joined again by (most of) the pollster panel.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

Unfortunately, James Valcke was unable to join us this week.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we discuss the latest national poll numbers and new developments within the Liberal Party — what does it mean for Justin Trudeau's future? We also chat about where things stand in Ontario and whether an early election call poses any risk to Doug Ford's polling lead. In the mailbag, we guess at who is more likely to step aside — Biden or Trudeau — as well as what to watch in the upcoming LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelection. Finally, we close with a Quiz on the 1997 federal election.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

For the mailbag, we discuss whether Toronto–St. Paul’s was a one-off or not (and we have many more byelection-related questions in the members-only extended mailbag). Then, Philippe harkens back to the 2006 election for the Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

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LES CHIFFRES: Est-ce la fin de l’ère Trudeau ? Éric et Philippe discutent de l'élection partielle dans Toronto–St. Paul's lundi dernier, qui fut une cuisante défaite du PLC dans ce qui était considéré comme un château fort libéral depuis trois décennies. Avec de tels résultats, Justin Trudeau peut-il rester en poste ? A-t-il encore la légitimité pour gouverner ? Que nous disent ces chiffres sur l'avance conservatrice au pays ? Et à quoi devrions-nous nous attendre de l'élection partielle à venir dans Lasalle–Émard–Verdun ? Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

Armed with reams of polling data, we take a look at Battleground Toronto, as well as Justin Trudeau’s standing among various demographic groups across the country as speculation about the future of his leadership continues. We also compare where the polls stand, 16 months out from the next election, to where polls stood at this point in the calendar before the 2015, 2019 and 2021 campaigns.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we discuss the set of polls that suggest (as expected) that the Liberals are not in the midst of a comeback — quite the opposite. We also make our over/under bets on Monday's Toronto–St. Paul's byelection. Will the Conservatives pull off an upset? Then, we chat about the results of the Tuxedo byelection in Manitoba and a new poll out of British Columbia. We answer questions from the mailbag (could we be replaced by AI?) and Philippe has a tough quiz for me.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

LES CHIFFRES: Le Parti québécois a gagné l'année parlementaire à Québec Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe discutent des deux récents sondages québécois des maisons Léger et Pallas Data. Le PQ mène toujours, la CAQ stagne, les libéraux demeurent au plancher et QS traverse sa crise sans trop de dommages. Il est aussi question d'un sondage de la firme Segma Recherche pour la ville de Gatineau. Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

It’s a lot of high drama with little more than four months to go before British Columbia’s provincial election in October, so this week I’m joined by Richard Zussman, Global News legislative reporter in Victoria, to break it all down.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we talk about the news out of Ottawa on the reduction in the Bank of Canada's interest rate, as well as a new report on foreign interference. Will anything move the polls? Plus, with two floor-crossings in British Columbia, is B.C. United finished? We also chat about new provincial polls out of Quebec and Alberta, and answer questions from the mailbag. To close, Philippe tests me with a competition-level Quiz.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

LES CHIFFRES: Des congrès, des congrès partout Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Philippe et Éric discutent d'une fin de semaine particulièrement chargée en politique québécoise, alors que trois des quatre partis représentés à l'Assemblée nationale se réunissaient pour discuter de leur avenir prochain. Québec solidaire tentait d'éviter l'implosion à Jonquière, le PLQ célébrait son passé et se préparait pour sa course à la chefferie à Bromont et la CAQ, réunie à Saint-Hyacinthe, tentait d'éviter de parler aux médias. Sur la scène fédérale, de nouveaux chiffres de Léger suggèrent une course à trois au Québec entre le Bloc, les libéraux et les conservateurs, mais est-ce réellement la tendance actuelle? Nous décortiquons les plus récentes données. Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

But Tuxedo won’t be the only Winnipeg battleground in 2024, as a federal byelection will have to be held in Elmwood–Transcona in the next few months. The federal NDP, not nearly as buoyant in the polls as their provincial cousins, could have a fight on its hands to hold off the Conservatives in this seat.

To discuss the first months of Wab Kinew’s government and the upcoming electoral contests taking place in Winnipeg, as well as how the city is shaping up ahead of the 2025 federal election, I’m joined by Ian Froese, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Manitoba.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we chat about the upcoming byelection in Toronto–St. Paul's and what's at stake for the Liberals in what has traditionally been a safe seat. We also discuss the results in the Pictou West byelection in Nova Scotia, the upcoming Tuxedo byelection in Manitoba and new polls out of Ontario, Alberta and B.C.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

LES CHIFFRES: Le Parti québécois a-t-il plafonné ? Cette semaine au balado, Éric et Philippe discutent du plus récent sondage québécois de la maison Léger. Il semblerait que le PQ ait atteint un certain plafond, que les appuis de la CAQ se soient stabilisés et que Québec solidaire ait perdu quelques plumes. Que nous racontent ces chiffres sur le portrait actuel de la politique au Québec? Et est-ce que la glissade de QS dans les sondages pourrait influencer le dénouement du congrès de Québec solidaire à la fin du mois ? Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

What’s behind Ford’s enduring support, and what’s the state of Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals and the NDP under Marit Stiles as they start to look ahead to the next provincial campaign in 2026?

To explain the state of Ontario politics today, I’m joined this week by Sabrina Nanji, author of Queen’s Park Observer, and John Michael McGrath, writer and co-host of the #onpoli podcast for TVO.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we try to figure what is going on in British Columbia as more and more polls show the B.C. Conservatives closing the gap with (or even beating) David Eby's NDP. We also break down the results of last week's two provincial byelections in Ontario. In the mailbag, we tackle the polling woes of Justin Trudeau's Liberals and more. Finally, Philippe has another Quiz this week — though one that's a tad easier than last week's.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

In our mailbag, we answer a question on Poilievre and the PPC vote, and Philippe takes no pity on me in my weakened state in this week's edition of The Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

LES CHIFFRES: Québec solidaire en désarroi Éric et Philippe discutent des plus récents sondages au Québec, de l'avance du Parti québécois et des appuis au PLQ chez les communautés anglophones et allophones au Québec. De plus, nous analysons la démission de la co-porte-parole de Québec solidaire, Émilise Lessard-Therrien. Est-ce que Québec solidaire devra effectuer des réformes à l'interne pour espérer une croissance de ses appuis ? Les membres de QS accepteront-ils des tels changements ? Nous discutons ensuite des plus récents sondages fédéraux qui nous indiquent que l'écart entre les libéraux et conservateurs semble se creuser davantage. Selon Léger, Abacus Data et Nanos, le PCC mène maintenant par 20 points (et plus) au pays. Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

Considering where the polls stand today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals certainly need the budget to pass to avoid an election. They also hope it will start a positive trend that will help them close the gap on Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. But early indications are that it isn’t having the desired effect — at least not yet.

To break down the politics of the budget and where things go from here, I’m joined this week by Stephanie Levitz of the Toronto Star and the CBC’s Aaron Wherry.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I chat about the latest numbers on how Canadians are reacting to the budget. We also delve into some polling controversy in Quebec where two different polls report two very different situations in the province.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

LES CHIFFRES: Le troisième référendum : une « certitude » Philippe et Éric discutent du discours de Paul St-Pierre Plamondon lors du conseil national du Parti québécois, lors duquel il a affirmé qu'il y aura assurément un troisième référendum sur la souveraineté du Québec avant la fin de la décennie. Était-ce une bonne stratégie ? Est-ce que l'aiguille des sondages bougera suite à ce discours (d'un côté comme de l'autre) ? Nous discutons ensuite du départ du whip de la CAQ, Éric Lefebvre, qui portera les couleurs du Parti conservateur de Pierre Poilievre aux prochaines élections fédérales. Est-ce que d'autres députés caquistes pourraient être tentés de faire le saut dans la prochaine année ? Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

Plus, what position does Trudeau’s jurisdictional fights with the premiers put Pierre Poilievre in? And with the New Democrats losing three veteran MPs who won’t run in the next election, what’s the state of the NDP?

To break it all down, the political pollsters are back.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I chat about about fresh national polling numbers that suggest the pre-budget rollout the Liberals have embarked upon has not yet had an impact on public opinion. We also discuss the retirement of three veteran NDP MPs and some new poll numbers out of British Columbia and Alberta.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

In our mailbag, we answer questions on how upcoming provincial elections could impact the next federal election and whether voters care about jurisdictional squabbles. Finally, Philippe has a new Quiz format for me.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts! You can also find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

LES CHIFFRES: Les Gaspésiens triomphent (malgré leur nombre) Philippe et moi discutent de l'abandon du projet de redécoupage de la carte électorale au Québec. La Gaspésie et l'est de Montréal garderont leurs sièges, alors que les Laurentides et le Centre-du-Québec continueront d'être sous-représentés. Le gouvernement a-t-il manqué de courage dans ce dossier ? Nous discutons ensuite des derniers chiffres fédéraux de Léger au Québec et ailleurs au pays, puis nous répondons aux questions de nos membres et auditeurs. Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

It raises many questions about the state of the race — including whether or not it’s already over.

To break it all down, I’m joined this week by two people who know the Alberta NDP very well. Leah Ward is vice president at Wellington Advocacy and Cheryl Oates is co-host of The Discourse podcast, and both previously served as director of communications for Rachel Notley.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I chat about the last week’s national polls, as well as some new numbers out of Ontario, B.C. and Alberta, in particular on the Alberta NDP leadership race.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts! You can also find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

LES CHIFFRES: François Legault est-il devenu un boulet pour son parti ? Cette semaine, Philippe et moi discutent du plus récent sondage québécois de la maison Léger. Le PQ a creusé davantage l'écart avec la CAQ et le taux de satisfaction du gouvernement continue de chuter. Sera-t-il possible pour la CAQ de remonter la pente et, pour y arriver, aura-t-elle besoin d'un changement de chef ? Nous décortiquons aussi les chiffres fédéraux du sondage, en particulier les données pour la région de la Capitale-Nationale. Le Bloc aurait-il dépassé les conservateurs à Québec ? Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

Using a compilation of multiple polls conducted over the last few months, we look at age, gender, education and occupational splits in voting intentions and whether there are any regional differences in each party’s voter profiles. We also discuss who those people are who have switched from one party to another and just what makes them tick.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I chat about the entry of Naheed Nenshi into the Alberta NDP leadership race. We also chat about the latest national polls, how the premiers are faring and answer listener questions, including on Conservative seat prospects in Quebec and on Vancouver Island.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts! You can also find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

LES CHIFFRES: Que restera-t-il du PLC au Québec ? Dans ce nouvel épisode du balado Les chiffres, Philippe et Éric discutent du plus récent sondage Pallas Data pour le Québec. Les appuis aux PQ ont-ils plafonné ? La CAQ a-t-elle freiné sa glissade ?  Nous décortiquons ensuite les derniers sondages fédéraux au Québec qui ont mesuré une baisse importante des appuis aux libéraux de Justin Trudeau. Que resterait-il du PLC au Québec si ces chiffres devaient se concrétiser ? Nous répondons ensuite aux questions de nos membres, puis Philippe soumet un quiz à Éric sur des personnalités politiques québécoises. Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.

On this episode of The Writ Podcast, I’m joined by two seasoned campaigners to answer that.

Fred DeLorey is a former national campaign manager for the Conservative Party and was also director of political operations under Stephen Harper. He’s now host of the iPolitics podcast, On Background with Fred DeLorey, and partner at NorthStar Public Affairs. 

Melissa Cotton spent over 20 years as a volunteer and staffer for the Liberal Party and provincially. She has managed or worked on multiple local election and by-election campaigns and served in several central campaign war rooms.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I broke down the latest federal, Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada polls and set our over/under lines for the Durham byelection.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Join me and Philippe J. Fournier on Monday night at 8:30 PM Eastern for our livestream of the Durham byelection results on YouTube.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts! You can also find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I chatted about the Liberals’ polling woes and the latest survey that puts the Saskatchewan NDP in first place. The next regular episode of The Numbers will be in this feed next Friday.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

You can find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts! You can also find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

To update us on the latest in provincial and federal politics in their two provinces, I’m joined this week by Mike Connors, co-anchor of the NTV Evening Newshour and former legislative reporter, and Teresa Wright, freelance political journalist and former national reporter with the Canadian Press and Global News.

(If you’re looking for this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here. The next regular episode of The Numbers will be in this feed next Friday.)

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

So, to keep you up to date on where things stand, I’ll be dipping into these three provinces periodically throughout 2024 on The Writ Podcast. To help me do that this week, I’m join by Richard Zussman, Global News legislative reporter in Victoria, B.C., Adam Hunter, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Regina, Saskatchewan, and Jacques Poitras, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Fredericton, New Brunswick.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you’re looking for this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here. The next regular episode of The Numbers will be in this feed next Friday.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Yes, for the third time we throw caution to the wind and make our predictions for the political year to come. Plus, we see who has the most egg on his face from last year's guesses.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

In the end, 2023 could prove to be a turning point in the political careers of both leaders, regardless of who wins the next election. It’ll either be the year when Poilievre solidified his status as the prime-minister-in-waiting — or the year when Trudeau hit rock bottom before turning things around.

So, what did we learn about each of the major parties in 2023 and what questions about them are we waiting to be answered in 2024?

To answer that, I’m joined this week by Stephanie Levitz of the Toronto Star and the CBC’s Aaron Wherry.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you’re looking for this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here. The next regular episode of The Numbers will be in this feed next Friday.

We also discuss some provincial polling out of the Prairies, an upcoming byelection in Toronto and answer listener questions.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Plus, Bonnie Crombie has become the new leader of the Ontario Liberals. What impact will that have on politics in the province?

This week, I’m joined again by a panel of season political pollsters.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you’re looking for this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here. The next regular episode will be in this feed next Friday.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Joining me this week to break down all the latest in Ontario politics are Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer and Jessica Smith Cross, editor-in-chief at The Trillium.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you’re looking for this week’s extra episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here. The next regular episode will be in this feed next Friday.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Joining me this week to chat about the political scene in Newfoundland and Labrador is Tim Powers, chairperson at Summa Strategies, and Mike Connors, co-anchor of the NTV Evening Newshour and former legislative reporter in St. John’s.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you’re looking for this week’s extra episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here. The next regular episode will be in this feed next Friday.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Joining me this week on The Writ Podcast is David Coletto, chair and CEO of Abacus Data. He’s compiled data from his recent surveys to give us a deep dive into how voters have migrated since 2021 and what each party’s electoral coalition looks like today.

(If you missed yesterday’s episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here.)

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

To break it all down, I’m joined again by the political pollster panel.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

And if you missed yesterday’s episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

To get access to the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes on Thursdays, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Starting next week, every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in The Writ Podcast feed) will be for members only.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

To discuss these final stages of the Manitoba campaign, I’m joined by Curtis Brown, principal at Probe Research, Ian Froese, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Manitoba, and Kelly Saunders, associate professor in the department of political science at Brandon University.

Join me for a livestream of the Manitoba election results on Tuesday, starting at 8 PM CT / 9 PM ET. You’ll be able to find the livestream here.

And don’t miss the latest episode of The Numbers podcast, out every Thursday for Patrons and every Friday for everyone via Apple Podcast, Spotify and wherever else you get your podcasts.

In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

To get access to the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes on Thursdays, you can become a Patron at our Patreon site here.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

If you want to add The Numbers (which has episodes out every week, with only every second episode hitting The Writ Podcast’s feed) and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Google Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

To discuss this first stage of the Manitoba campaign, I’m joined by Curtis Brown, principal at Probe Research, Ian Froese, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Manitoba, and Kelly Saunders, associate professor in the department of political science at Brandon University.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Are you a paid subscriber to The Writ? Then keep an eye on the chat, where I often solicit questions for the podcast. You can find The Writ’s subscribers-only chat here.

Don’t miss the latest episode of The Numbers podcast, out every Thursday for Patrons and every Friday for everyone else via Apple Podcast, Spotify and wherever else you get your podcasts.

We then answer some listener questions and Philippe subjects me to a little quiz.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

To get access to the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes on Thursdays, you can become a Patron at our Patreon site here.

If you want to add The Numbers (which will have episodes out every week, with only every second episode hitting The Writ Podcast’s feed) and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Google Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Philippe J. Fournier and I are really excited to start these two new projects, and we hope that you’ll be just as excited for them as we are. You can find more information about The Numbers and Les chiffres at our website here.

We also wrote some introductory posts for The Numbers and Les chiffres that you might want to check out.

Take a listen to find out what this means for subscribers to The Writ and listeners to The Writ Podcast — but don’t worry, The Writ Podcast isn’t going anywhere! It’ll move to a bi-weekly schedule, and in the off weeks you’ll get a new episode of The Numbers in your feed.

But you’ll also want to follow The Numbers and Les chiffres in their own feeds in order not to miss anything. In addition to being available on our Patreon site, here’s where you can find these two new podcasts on other apps:

Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres

Google Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres

To give us an idea of what life is like for an MP away from Parliament Hill, I’m joined this week by two Members of Parliament: Dan Albas, Conservative MP for the B.C. riding of Central Okanagan–Similkameen–Nicola, and Greg Fergus, Liberal MP for the Quebec seat of Hull–Aylmer.

(Note that this episode was recorded a week ago, before wildfires hit the Kelowna region.)

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Are you a paid subscriber to The Writ? Then keep an eye on the chat, where I often solicit questions for the podcast. You can find The Writ’s subscribers-only chat here.

Plus, the fall political season is fast approaching. So what do each of the parties have to do in the coming months as politics start to heat up again in Ottawa?

To answer these questions, two-thirds of the political pollster panel has been re-convened and I’m joined by Dan Arnold and Andrew Enns. (James Valcke was unable to join us this week.)

Dan, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Are you a paid subscriber to The Writ? Then keep an eye on the chat, where I often solicit questions for the podcast. You can find The Writ’s subscribers-only chat here.

To help set us up for the Manitoba election campaign which is only weeks away from officially getting started, I’m joined this week by Niigaan Sinclair and Dan Lett, hosts of the Niigaan and the Lone Ranger podcast. You can check out their podcast here.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Are you a paid subscriber to The Writ? Then keep an eye on the chat, where I often solicit questions for the podcast. You can find The Writ’s subscribers-only chat here.

1) Are cracks in the conservative coalition that makes up the governing Saskatchewan Party starting to form?

2) Will the Saskatchewan New Democrats show any signs that they can win the kind of seats they need if they are to ever return to power?

To help set up the three provincial byelections in Regina Walsh Acres, Regina Coronation Park and Lumsden-Morse, I’m joined this week by Adam Hunter, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Saskatchewan.

LIVESTREAM: Join me and Philippe J. Fournier for a livestream of these Saskatchewan byelection results on August 10, 8 PM CT / 10 PM ET. You’ll find the livestream here.

Are you a paid subscriber to The Writ? Then keep an eye on the chat, where I often solicit questions for the podcast. You can find The Writ’s subscribers-only chat here.

A simple refresh ahead of the next election or an admission that things weren’t working?

To discuss what it all means, I’m joined this week by Stephanie Levitz of the Toronto Star and the CBC’s Aaron Wherry.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Are you a paid subscriber to The Writ? Then keep an eye on the chat, where I often solicit questions for the podcast. You can find The Writ’s subscribers-only chat here.

So, joining me to break down all the latest from the OLP leadership contest and what to watch in the upcoming byelections in Kanata–Carleton and Scarborough–Guildwood is Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer.

Plus: Join me at 9 PM on July 27 for a livestream of the byelection results as they come in. You can find the livestream here. See you there!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Are you a paid subscriber to The Writ? Then keep an eye on the chat, where I often solicit questions for the podcast. You can find The Writ’s subscribers-only chat here.

* What’s the lowest the Liberals could go and still have a chance win the most seats?

* Will there be a federal election in 2023?

* What will bring the CAQ down, if anything can?

* Who will win the Ontario Liberal leadership?

* What were the worst calls Philippe and I ever made?

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Are you a paid subscriber to The Writ? Then keep an eye on the chat, where I often solicit questions for the podcast. You can find The Writ’s subscribers-only chat here.

Premier Blaine Higgs has been facing down opponents within his caucus and within his party over the last few weeks. The spark was a proposed change to laws regarding LGBTQ students but the turmoil goes far deeper than that, as some members of his Progressive Conservative government and party denounce his top-down, autocratic style. A few of the renegades were shuffled out of cabinet but a leadership challenge is in the works.

It isn’t clear how much longer this can go on without the pressure release of an election.

To try to explain what’s happening, I’m joined this week by Michelle LeBlanc, journalist with Radio-Canada Acadie, and Jacques Poitras, New Brunswick provincial affairs reporter for the CBC.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Are you a subscriber to The Writ? Then keep an eye on the chat, where I often solicit questions for the podcast. You can find The Writ’s subscribers-only chat here.

Joining me this week to take stock of the state of federal politics nearly two years after the last election is the CBC’s Aaron Wherry.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Who makes it No. 1? Which premier gets drafted higher than of the scouts had him?

After listening, let us know which team of premiers you think is the best team!

Joining me this week to tell the story of the development of polling in Canada is Christopher Adams, rector of St. Paul’s College and adjunct professor in political studies at the University of Manitoba. Chris has worked in the industry and is now working on a history of polling.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

So, is this election Olivia Chow’s to lose?

To set up this last stage of the mayoral campaign, I’m joined again by Matt Elliott, a contributing columnist to the Toronto Star and publisher of the City Hall Watcher newsletter.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Separately, what are the politics surrounding David Johnston’s inquiry into foreign interference in Canada’s elections?

Back on the podcast to break it all down, I’m joined by the political pollsters: Dan Arnold, Andrew Enns and James Valcke.

Dan, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

First, I’m joined by The Globe and Mail’s Calgary-based columnist Kelly Cryderman to discuss how this campaign has unfolded. Then, Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com is back to go over the electoral map with me.

Finally, on Monday night starting at 8 PM MT / 10 PM ET you can join me for some live analysis of the results as the votes are counted.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

But in addition to being a mid-term test for all parties, the byelections will also have a few party leaders on the ballot: PPC leader Maxime Bernier in Portage–Lisgar and Green co-leader Jonathan Pedneault in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount.

So, what should we expect in these byelections? Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada is back to discuss these four races, as well as to set some over/under lines to watch on byelection night!

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Joining me this week on the podcast is the CBC’s Jason Markusoff, who has looked into the rise of the Take Back Alberta group that has tried to influence the direction of the UCP from the inside.

What does this mean for the future of the United Conservatives — and for Danielle Smith, win or lose in Alberta’s election on May 29?

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

To break down Week 1, I’m joined by Elise von Scheel, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Calgary, and Lisa Young, professor of political science at the University of Calgary and author of the What Now?!? newsletter.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

We also chat about some other recent news, including François Legault’s decision to go back on his promise of a third link between Quebec City and Lévis for motorists, the results of the New Brunswick byelections, the re-branding of the B.C. Liberals and is it majority or bust for Pierre Poilievre?

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

And on June 26, Torontonians will be going to the polls in the biggest byelection in Canadian history.

Voters will have lots of options for John Tory’s replacement, as there are dozens of candidates on the ballot. The list of real contenders is shorter — but still really long.

To weed out the pretenders from the contenders, I’m joined this week by Matt Elliott, a contributing columnist to the Toronto Star and publisher of the City Hall Watcher newsletter.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

That not only makes him one of today’s longest-serving party leaders in the country, it also puts him on a short list of historic Liberal leaders: only Lester Pearson, Jean Chrétien, Pierre Trudeau, Mackenzie King and Wilfrid Laurier have held the job longer than Justin Trudeau has.

He says he will lead the Liberals into the next election, but a decade is already more than enough time to leave a mark. To discuss Trudeau’s legacy to date, I’m joined this week by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry, who wrote a book on the first years of Trudeau’s time in office, and Susan Delacourt of the Toronto Star.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

And the Prince Edward Island election earlier this week has got me thinking about the links between provincial and federal politics. How do voters separate, if it all, their partisan attachment to parties at the two levels of government?

The party pollsters are back to discuss.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in the prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including the NDP's breakthrough 2011 election.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

But are King’s PCs still on track for a big majority win, maybe even a sweep? Or did any of the campaign’s controversies or this past week’s leaders debate change the dial?

Back to wrap this campaign is Stuart Neatby, political reporter for the Charlottetown Guardian and the Saltwire Network.

My livestream of the results will be starting on Monday at 6 PM Eastern / 7 PM Atlantic. You will find it here.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

With the 2024 election looming, it is still an open question whether or not Biden will run again as the Democratic nominee. If he does, who will be his opponent? And, if it is Donald Trump again, can he beat him a second time?

Those are questions for the future. For now, the focus will be on the state of U.S.-Canada relations, and what might come out of Biden’s visit.

To tackle both where things stand now and where they could stand next year, I’m joined this week by Alex Panetta, Washington, D.C. correspondent for the CBC.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

What about where things stand ahead of the upcoming Alberta election or in the midst of Prince Edward Island’s campaign? And what to make of an upset in a Quebec byelection this week?

Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com (and L’actualité and POLITICO Canada) is back on the podcast this week to chat with me about all this and everything in between.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

There’s plenty to watch as this campaign unfolds. Will King’s gamble pay off for his Progressive Conservatives? Can the Greens repeat their breakthrough from 2019 that catapulted them to official opposition status for the first time anywhere in Canada? And will the Liberal brand take another hit if the party finishes in third place again?

Joining me this week to setup this campaign are Teresa Wright, freelance political journalist and former national reporter with the Canadian Press and Global News, and Stuart Neatby, political reporter for the Charlottetown Guardian and the Saltwire Network.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

To break down what the budget means for Alberta and the election, I’m joined this week by Elise von Scheel, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Calgary, and Trevor Tombe, professor of economics at the University of Calgary.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

What role does health care play in public opinion and politics — both at the federal and provincial levels?

How are things looking ahead of Alberta’s provincial election, and what about those reports about Chinese interference in the 2021 federal vote?

Joining me to tackle all of these questions are three party pollsters, Dan Arnold, Andrew Enns and James Valcke.

Dan, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in the prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.

Andrew is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.

James is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including the NDP's breakthrough 2011 election.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Plus, there’s that bombshell resignation of John Tory in Toronto.

So, joining me to chat about it all this week is the CBC’s Aaron Wherry and Shannon Proudfoot of The Globe and Mail.

(My apologies for the poorer audio quality than usual in this episode.)

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Also thinking about it? Mike Schreiner, leader of the Green Party of Ontario.

That’s because a group of Ontario Liberals think they’d be better off with Schreiner and have said so in a public letter. It’s a bizarre and unprecedented move for some from a party that governed as recently as 2018 to see a saviour in the leader of a party who has never won more than a single seat.

It’s not the only bit of news coming out of Queen’s Park, as the Ontario New Democrats have named their new leader in Marit Stiles and Premier Doug Ford is considering his response to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s offer of new healthcare funding.

There’s lots to chat about in Ontario politics, so joining me this week on The Writ Podcast is Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer and John Michael McGrath, writer at TVO.org and co-host of the ONpoli podcast with Steve Paikin.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Polling conducted by Pollara and covered at The Writ over the last two weeks showed who Canadians think was the greatest prime minister and opposition leader in our history. But the results didn’t line up with the usual rankings made by historians and political scientists. What does that say about how Canadians remember their own history?

I’m joined this week on The Writ Podcast by Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, and Stephen Azzi, professor at the Clayton H. Riddell Graduate Program in Political Management at Carleton University.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

So what are the challenges Poilievre and the Conservatives face in Quebec — and what are their realistic prospects?

To discuss Pierre Poilievre’s attempt at a grande séduction of Quebec, I’m joined this week by Marie Vastel of Le Devoir, and our friend Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

The Progressive Conservatives have governed the province since 2016 and were re-elected under Brian Pallister in 2019. But the PCs have been trailing in the polls for years. A change at the top in late 2021, when Heather Stefanson was named as Pallister’s replacement, hasn’t changed things.

That makes this year’s election Wab Kinew and the NDP’s to lose.

Joining me this week to discuss Manitoba’s election year is Curtis Brown, principal at Probe Research, and Ian Froese, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Winnipeg.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

The polls are suggesting the race will be tight between Danielle Smith’s United Conservatives and Rachel Notley’s New Democrats — perhaps as tight as any election in Alberta in 30 years.

Back on The Writ Podcast to set us up for the showdown is Elise von Scheel, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Calgary. Also joining the show is Lisa Young, professor of political science at the University of Calgary. She is a frequent commentator on Alberta politics, a co-investigator on the Viewpoint Alberta survey and you should check out her newsletter, What Now?!?

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Until today.

With the political season still a little quiet, the CBC’s Aaron Wherry has joined me to play a little game: Opposition Leader Draft!

We’ll dig through the history books to draft our fantasy opposition front bench — and chat a little about the importance of the opposition leader’s job.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Last year, Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com joined me for a little friendly competition to see who could best predict what would happen in politics in 2022.

Well, the results are in — and the title is up for grabs again in 2023.

So, join us for this game of over/under as we guess what will happen in federal politics next year as well as in the provincial elections scheduled in Alberta, Manitoba and Prince Edward Island.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

This will be the last episode of The Writ Podcast for 2022. See you next year!

Do the results have any broader implications? And where do the federal parties sit as they end 2022 and look ahead to 2023?

Plus — what to make of the Manitoba provincial byelection results in Kirkfield Park?

Joining me this week to chat about it all are two former party pollsters, Dan Arnold and Andrew Enns.

Dan, now chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in the prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns. Andrew is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducting polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across the country.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

To help me do that on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast, I’m joined again by Tim Powers of Summa Strategies and Chad Rogers of Crestview Strategy.

And, to guide our performance evaluation of the new Conservative leader, we’re going to rely on the bestselling business book, The First 90 Days, by Michael D. Watkins.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Monday 8:30 PM ET : Mississauga–Lakeshore Byelection Results Livestream

Special offer: save 12% on subscriptions to The Writ if you subscribe by December 12!

So how does this process work? And how is it not working as well as it could?

Joining me this week to discuss this is Michael Pal, associate professor in the faculty of law at the University of Ottawa and a recognized expert in this field.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

But has the inquiry changed any minds — and will Justice Paul Rouleau’s findings have any political consequences on the Liberals or the opposition parties?

Speaking of which, one of those parties has chosen a new leader — sort of. After a brief and tumultuous interregnum, Elizabeth May is back at the helm of the Green Party (with a little help from Jonathan Pedneault).

Joining me today to discuss this is the CBC’s Aaron Wherry and Supriya Dwivedi, Director of Policy and Engagement at the Centre for Media, Technology and Democracy, Senior Counsel for Enterprise Canada and co-host of the Seriously Podcast.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

* Would a change of leader boost Liberal support?

* How do Pierre Poilievre’s post-leadership polling numbers compare to his predecessors?

* Does the Alberta NDP have a path to government that includes seats outside of Calgary and Edmonton?

* If I could cover the politics of any other country, which would it be?

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also listen to this episode on YouTube.

This comes only a few months since the Ontario PCs made inroads among working class voters in the June provincial election. Have those bridges with labour been burnt?

To discuss the latest news from Queen’s Park, as well as what is going on with the Ontario Liberal and NDP leadership races, I’m joined today by Sabrina Nanji of Queen's Park Observer and Larry Savage, professor in the department of Labour Studies at Brock University.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube.

Joining me on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast is Nathaniel Rakich, senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Nathaniel breaks down the races to watch on Tuesday and together we discuss what sets America’s elections apart from those here in Canada.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube.

Ballots were cast in municipal elections in Ontario and Manitoba this week, but could these campaigns have been better served with political parties? Big cities like Vancouver and Montreal have them while voters in most of the rest of the country do not. Do these voters need a little help making their choices?

Meanwhile in Ottawa, the inquiry into Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s invoking of the Emergencies Act continues and the Bloc Québécois raises the thorny issue of Canada’s attachment to the monarchy.

Joining me to discuss all of this on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast is Aaron Wherry, senior writer with the CBC.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube.

Shortly after B.C. Premier John Horgan announced his impending resignation, it appeared that cabinet minister David Eby would be acclaimed as his replacement. Nearly the entire NDP caucus had lined-up behind Eby and no one else had come forward.

That changed when climate activist Anjali Appadurai, who had run as a candidate for the federal NDP in the 2021 election, threw her hat in the ring. Eby’s sleepy campaign was quickly overrun by Appadurai, who had the backing of influential environmentalist groups in the province.

That backing, though, led to allegations that Appadurai was getting improper assistance by third-party groups. On Wednesday, the B.C. New Democrats decided to disqualify her from the contest, leaving Eby as the sole heir to Horgan’s throne.

Richard Zussman, politics reporter for Global News in B.C., joins me on this episode of The Writ Podcast to explain this week’s dramatic events.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube.

That was the easy part.

Now, Smith faces keeping together a caucus that has not always lived up to the “united” in the party name, following through on some of her controversial leadership campaign promises and preparing for a general election scheduled to be held in less than eight months.

On this episode of The Writ Podcast I’m joined by Elise von Scheel, politics reporter with the CBC in Calgary, to break down these latest developments in Alberta.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube.

The polling firm that has one of the best track records over the last few years has been Léger, with near-perfect calls not only in the Quebec election but in the Ontario election in June and the last two federal campaigns, too.

To explain how Léger conducts its polls, I’m joined on The Writ Podcast by Christian Bourque, executive vice-president at Léger.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube.

The Conservatives look likely to settle on Pierre Poilievre as their next leader based on newly-published fundraising figures. While he’s been around the party for his entire adult life, he will nevertheless take the Conservatives in a new direction — and apparently fill the party coffers in the process.

The Greens, on the other hand, might just head in reverse. After resigning as leader of the party in 2019, Elizabeth May is considering a return to the party’s top job as it searches for a replacement for Annamie Paul. But is Elizabeth May what the Greens, who are stagnant in the polls and struggling to raise money, really need to take them forward?

Joining me on The Writ Podcast this week to discuss these two leadership races is the CBC’s Aaron Wherry.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube.

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

The rise of the right-wing, populist Wildrose Party was a reaction to the growing anger and fatigue with the PCs, who governed Alberta for an uninterrupted period stretching from 1971 to 2015. But after the PCs were booted from office, the two rival parties became aligned in their opposition to Rachel Notley’s NDP government.

Merged and under the leadership of Jason Kenney, the UCP defeated the NDP in 2019. Mission accomplished. But little more than three years later, Kenney is on his way out as leader and the party is already at a crossroads as it tries to find his replacement and avoid defeat in next spring’s election.

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On this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast, I’m joined by Elise von Scheel, CBC politics reporter in Alberta, to break down who is in the running to lead the United Conservative Party and what happened in Wednesday’s leadership debate in Medicine Hat.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this discussion on YouTube.

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

In the Conservative leadership race, Pierre Poilievre seems to be cruising toward a victory in September but Jean Charest isn’t throwing in the towel just yet. What will the results mean for the future of the party?

For the Liberals, the summer hasn’t been going great. From passports to airports and Ukraine, various problems keep dogging the government. Will this just be a summer Justin Trudeau will want to forget or the first signs of serious trouble?

This week on The Writ Podcast to discuss all this (and more), I’m joined by journalist Shannon Proudfoot and Supriya Dwivedi, Director of Policy and Engagement at the Centre for Media, Technology and Democracy, and Senior Counsel for Enterprise Canada. She’s also the co-host of the Seriously Podcast.

(Note: The news that Pierre Poilievre isn’t interested in attending the third Conservative debate came out after we recorded.)

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Supriya and Shannon on YouTube.

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

The Writ will be back to its regularly scheduled English-language programming later this week.

La campagne électorale au Québec sera officiellement lancée dans moins de deux mois. Les sondages suggèrent que la Coalition Avenir Québec de François Legault est sur la bonne piste pour gagner un deuxième mandat majoritaire. Par contre, il reste encore de grandes questions auxquelles il faudra attendre les résultats du 3 octobre.

Philippe J. Fournier de Qc125.com me rejoint sur le podcast pour parler de la course électorale — en français!

Veuillez me faire parvenir vos commentaires si vous aimeriez voir plus de podcasts en français pendant la campagne électorale. Merci!

First among these is whether or not the CAQ can cruise to a win. Does the party have any vulnerabilities that could trip it up between now and election day?

Can the Quebec Conservatives finally make a breakthrough after surging in the polls? What’s next for Québec Solidaire, and what will the results say about the future of both the Quebec Liberals and the Parti Québécois?

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To break down the state of the race, this week on The Writ Podcast I’m joined by Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada.com. You can also check out Philippe’s work at Politico and L’actualité.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Philippe on YouTube.

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

And what a story it is. Late on Tuesday night, Patrick Brown was booted from the Conservative leadership contest for his campaign’s alleged breaking of the rules that govern political financing. Brown denies the allegations and puts the blame on Pierre Poilievre’s campaign for engineering his ouster.

This story is far from over, as it appears Brown might go to the courts to challenge his disqualification. Meanwhile, the other campaigns need to re-calibrate and figure out where they go from here.

There’s a lot to discuss. So, this week I’m joined by Tim Powers of Summa Strategies, Chad Rogers of Crestview Strategy and Catherine Cullen, senior reporter with CBC News, to break it all down.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Catherine, Tim and Chad on YouTube.

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

And it appears to have paid off.

The PCs were able to win seats away from the New Democrats in places like Windsor, Hamilton and northern Ontario, regions the NDP has traditionally been able to count on from one election to the next. The PCs also received a series of labour endorsements, setting off a narrative of a fracturing of labour support for the New Democrats as the PCs make inroads into a new electorate.

What does it all mean for the future of politics in Ontario?

Earlier this year, Larry Savage, a professor in the labour studies department at Brock University, came on the podcast to discuss how the labour vote was shaping up ahead of the Ontario election. Now, he’s back to discuss what happened — and what it means for the Ontario PCs and NDP going forward.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Larry on YouTube.

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

Miramichi Bay–Neguac and Southwest Miramichi–Bay du Vin were vacated last year when their two MLAs, one a Liberal, the other a Progressive Conservative, quit provincial politics to take a run at federal office. As a result, these two neighbouring ridings will test the political waters in New Brunswick two years into Premier Blaine Higgs’s majority mandate.

Not only will the popularity of his PC government be put to the test, but we’ll also get our first signs of the impact of the (temporary) dissolution of the People’s Alliance, a populist party whose two MLAs crossed the floor to join the PC government earlier this year.

The Miramichi area just happens to be an area of strength for the People’s Alliance. Will their voters flock to the PCs, are stick with the new iteration of the People’s Alliance?

Then, in August the Liberals will be choosing their new leader. Whoever it is will take over a party running roughly even in the polls with the governing PCs. There are also questions over what’s next for the seatless NDP as their leader steps down (again).

So, lots to talk about.

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To break it all down, I’m joined this week by the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in New Brunswick and author of The Right Fight, Jacques Poitras.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Jacques on YouTube.

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Though, with Pierre Poilievre’s campaign claiming half of those members, is there much of a race left to run? Do Patrick Brown and Jean Charest still have a path to victory? And what role could Leslyn Lewis still play?

To discuss what the numbers mean and what’s next for the leadership contest, I’m joined this week by Tim Powers of Summa Strategies, Chad Rogers of Crestview Strategy and Stephanie Levitz of the Toronto Star.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Stephanie, Tim and Chad on YouTube.

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

Will Steven Del Duca’s Liberals or Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats emerge as the official opposition? Can Mike Schreiner’s Greens win that coveted second seat? And is there anything that could get in the way of Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives winning the majority government that the polls suggest is well within their grasp?

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Philippe on YouTube.

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

Or, to be more accurate, between Poilievre and a tag-team of Charest and Brown.

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To discuss what happened in the debate and what it could mean for the leadership contest going forward, I’m joined this week by Stéphanie Chouinard, political science professor at the Royal Military College in Kingston, Ontario.

In addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Stéphanie on YouTube.

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

David also gives us a sneak peek at some exclusive polling on who won — or didn’t win — Monday’s leaders debate.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Sabrina and David on YouTube.

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

Pierre Poilievre entered the debate as the front runner, chased by the likes of Jean Charest, Patrick Brown and Leslyn Lewis. Unlike the first debate, though, this was not a head-to-head match between Poilievre and Charest. Instead, there were entire stretches of the debate in which Poilievre could do nothing but stand on the sidelines as the audience sat riveted by the epic duel between Roman Baber and Scott Aitchison over their agreed positions on what to do with Canada’s North.

Can such a scattershot debate have much of an impact on this Conservative leadership contest?

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To discuss what happened at the debate in Edmonton, as well as chat about some of the broader implications of the ongoing Ontario provincial election campaign, I’m joined this week by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry and Shannon Proudfoot, Ottawa bureau chief for Maclean’s.

In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Shannon and Aaron on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives are looking to be re-elected with a majority government and are ahead in the polls, chased by Steven Del Duca’s Liberals and, in third, Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats.

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To help set up the stakes for each of these parties and what they need to do over the next four weeks, I’m joined by David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, and Sabrina Nanji, who writes the Queen’s Park Observer newsletter.

In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with David and Sabrina on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

That’s the deadline for candidates to submit 500 signatures from members spread across the country, a $200,000 entry fee and a $100,000 compliance deposit. It’s not a threshold that weeds out any serious contender, but it can be too much for those who, let’s face it, don’t have a real shot.

In the end, this contest is probably going to come down to one of the four main contenders: Pierre Poilievre, Jean Charest, Patrick Brown and Leslyn Lewis.

Poilievre is the consensus front runner. But is his main rival not Jean Charest, the former Quebec premier, but instead Patrick Brown, the former leader of the Ontario PCs?

To discuss all the latest in the Conservative leadership race, I’m joined this week by Tim Powers of Summa Strategies, Chad Rogers of Crestview Strategy and the CBC’s Catherine Cullen.

In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Tim, Chad and Catherine on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

The polls give Macron the edge, but his advantage over the right-wing Le Pen has shrunk since they last faced-off against one another in 2017. What’s behind this closer race, and what could a victory by either Macron or Le Pen mean for France, Europe and the rest of the world?

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

To answer these questions on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast, I’m joined by Raphaël Bouvier-Auclair, Radio-Canada’s correspondent in Paris.

In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Raphaël on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

What does the budget say about both this deal and the plans for Trudeau’s third term in office?

Meanwhile, the Conservative leadership race has been heating up as candidates go on the attack — Charest vs. Poilievre, Poilievre vs. Brown, and everyone avoiding saying anything critical of Leslyn Lewis in hopes of getting the second-choice support of her backers.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

To discuss all of this, this week I’m joined by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry and Supriya Dwivedi, Director of Policy and Engagement at the Centre for Media, Technology and Democracy, and Senior Counsel for Enterprise Canada.

In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Supriya and Aaron on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

There have been a lot of new developments as the election gets closer and closer. Candidates are being nominated, political ads are hitting the airwaves and the reverberations out of Ottawa, be it a new child care agreement or the Liberal-NDP governing deal, are being felt in Toronto.

To go through all the latest, I’m joined again this week by Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer. You can check out her newsletter on everything Ontario-politics here.

MONDAY NIGHT LIVESTREAM!

Join me and 338Canada.com’s Philippe J. Fournier on Monday night at 8 PM ET for live coverage of the Quebec byelection results in Marie-Victorin. You’ll find the livestream here. Be there and be square!

In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Sabrina on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

But now that the Liberals and New Democrats have signed a deal that could extend the life of this Parliament to 2025, the Conservative leadership campaign’s urgency has changed.

Has that changed the race itself?

To break down the latest developments in and around the Conservative leadership contest, I’m joined again by Chad Rogers of Crestview Strategy and Tim Powers of Summa Strategies.

In addition to listening to the episode here or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Tim and Chad on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

Could the Liberal and NDP confidence and supply agreement be that kind of turning point?

Since 2004, Canadians have elected minority governments in five of seven federal elections and we’ve had majority government for only eight of the last 18 years. If minority governments have become the rule rather than the exception, the way we do politics in Canada might have to change.

This agreement between the Liberals and the NDP could be the first try at that — or it could turn out to be a complete mess. Whatever happens, it will have huge implications not only for the future of the Liberals and the NDP (and their leaders), but potentially for the Conservatives, too.

With so much to unpack, on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast I’m joined again by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry. You can read his recent analysis on the Liberal and NDP agreement here.

In addition to listening to the episode here or on other podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Aaron on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

Running as a United Conservative Party candidate, Jean was always the heavy favourite to win the seat. But this is not necessarily a win for the governing United Conservatives, as Jean was — like all other candidates on the ballot — opposed to Jason Kenney’s government.

Kenney’s rival for the UCP leadership in 2017, Jean is pushing for the UCP membership to vote out Kenney at a leadership review in Red Deer on April 9. The stakes couldn’t be higher for the future of Kenney and the UCP.

To break down all the latest in this story, I’m joined this week by Elise von Scheel, the CBC’s politics reporter in Calgary. (Elise also produced and appeared with me on The Pollcast podcast back in the day.)

In addition to listening to the episode here or on other podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Elise on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

The rules of the Conservative leadership race are now set and the contours of the contest are starting to come into focus as a number of candidates throw their hats into the ring.

There will be no coronation for Pierre Poilievre, as Leslyn Lewis and Jean Charest (along with Roman Baber) declare their candidacies and Patrick Brown might not be far behind. While some other names could be included in the mix, Poilievre, Lewis, Charest and Brown could be your potential Top Four.

With so much to discuss I had to bring Tim and Chad back right away.

Chad Rogers is a founding partner at Crestview Strategy and Tim Powers is chairman of Summa Strategies.

In addition to listening to the episode here or on other podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Tim and Chad on YouTube:

And if you missed it, earlier this week I posted an explainer video on the rules and dynamics of the Conservative leadership race. Check it out below:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

The Ontario Progressive Conservatives seem to be planning to use every day to their advantage, running advertisements and pushing the budget date to the end of April, just before the writs will be dropped for the election campaign.

To break down all the latest developments in and around Queen’s Park — including who is considering a bid for the federal Conservative leadership — I’m joined again by Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer. You can check out her site below:

In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also watch my discussion with Sabrina on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

But we do know that Ottawa-area MP Pierre Poilievre says he is running and that a number of other candidates — including former Progressive Conservative leader and Quebec premier Jean Charest — are mulling a bid.

This will be the third Conservative leadership race in five years. Throughout the long contest back in 2017, I was joined by Tim Powers and Chad Rogers on The Pollcast, the podcast I then hosted at the CBC. The podcast wasn’t running anymore when the 2020 leadership race was taking place, but now that we’re in yet another campaign, it’s time to get the band back together!

So, joining me on this week’s episode of the podcast is Chad Rogers of Crestview Strategy and Tim Powers of Summa Strategies.

In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also watch my discussion with Tim and Chad on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

They have also had an impact on politics in this country, changing Canadians’ views of both the prime minister over his handling of the crisis and the Conservative Party over the positions they have taken on pandemic restrictions and the protests themselves.

Even if the protests die down or are put down, they will leave traces in politics for months, perhaps even years, to come.

So, to help me make some sense out of how this is impacting partisan politics in Canada, I’m joined by David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, on this week’s episode of The Writ Podcast.

In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also watch my discussion with David on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

This vote comes just days after Premier Scott Moe announces a lifting of proof-of-vaccination requirements in the province.

To discuss the upcoming byelection and the state of politics in Saskatchewan, I’m joined today by Adam Hunter, the provincial affairs reporter for the CBC in Regina.

In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also watch my discussion with Adam on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

There’s a lot to discuss here. What led to Erin O’Toole’s swift and sudden downfall? What does this mean for the Conservative Party going forward? And what kind of candidate has the best shot at being O’Toole’s successor?

To help me sift through all this, on this episode of The Writ Podcast I’m joined by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry. Read his analysis of the leadership drama.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also listen to the discussion between myself and Aaron on YouTube (the video quality didn’t work out this time, so it’s audio only this week):

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

Then, last fall Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced a minimum wage hike with labour leaders in attendance.

So, what’s going on with the labour vote?

To help explain the role of organized labour in past and future elections, on this episode of The Writ Podcast I’m joined by Larry Savage, a professor in the department of labour studies at Brock University. His research focuses on the politics of organized labour in Canada, including electoral strategy and the nature of party-union relationships.

In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also watch the discussion between myself and Prof. Savage on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

To help break down how the parties are preparing for the June election, I’m joined this week by Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer, where Sabrina keeps tabs on all the latest goings-on in Ontario politics. You can check out her work here.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also watch the discussion between myself and Sabrina on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

After six years, Arnold is making the leap back to the private sector, returning to his old home at Pollara as Chief Strategy Officer. But first, he’s here to talk to me about his experiences tracking public opinion both in government and on the campaign trail in 2015, 2019 and 2021.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

In addition to listening to the episode here, on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify, you can also watch the discussion between myself and Dan on YouTube:

To watch past discussions and to be notified of new videos being posted, please subscribe to my YouTube Channel here.

The game is simple: we set a number for an upcoming political event and then have to decide whether we think the result will be over or under that number.

For example, the share of the vote the Ontario Progressive Conservatives will get in the June provincial election: 35.4%. Will the party get more or less than Tim Hudak’s score from 2011? Will the Coalition Avenir Québec win more or less than 93.5 seats in the election in October?

Join in on the contest with your predictions in the comments section. But you’ll have to be patient — we’ll only know the winner at the end of 2022!

The full episode is also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, but you’ll most want to watch the entire discussion on YouTube:

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in a future episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to past episodes of The Writ Podcast and watch podcast interviews on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.

By the way! If you like the theme from The Writ Podcast, you can now listen to it unfiltered and uninterrupted!

Polls of the week

* Polling from Léger gives us an update on what Canadians think of the pandemic, as well as how their governments are doing handling it.

* As the Liberals announce a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Olympics, new data from the Angus Reid Institute suggests Canadians’ views on the issue are complicated — but that they see a rising China as a foreign policy threat, according to Abacus Data.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Questions and answers

* What leadership threshold do Erin O’Toole and Jason Kenney need to hit to keep their jobs?

* Any provincial and federal politicians likely to make a jump to a different level of politics?

* Which prime minister has held the most cabinet portfolios?

* What impact could the Ontario Greens have on the next provincial election?

* Could the CAQ make a breakthrough in Liberal-friendly Montreal?

The #EveryElectionProject

* As the holidays approach, politics takes a backseat — except during the 15 times Canadians went to the polls between December 10 and the end of the year.

Look out for a special episode of The Writ Podcast next Friday!

The full episode is also available on YouTube, as well as on Apple Podcasts and Spotify:

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to past episodes of The Writ Podcast and watch podcast interviews on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.

This week’s podcast title musical inspiration courtesy of Michael Bublé:

Polls of the week

* An update from Abacus Data on federal politics, including what Canadians thought of the throne speech, if they thought anything at all.

* In Quebec, François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec remains on track for a landslide in next year’s election, according to Léger.

* In Atlantic Canada, three governments are boasting high satisfaction ratings. One of them isn’t: New Brunswick.

In the news

* Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer is back to give us the latest news in Ontario politics, as the countdown to the 2022 provincial election is now 181 days.

Questions and answers

* Which governments are at most political risk from inflation?

* What’s an indicator of a leader in trouble?

* Who is getting their election expenses reimbursed, and who isn’t?

* What’s on my Spotify Wrapped list?

The #EveryElectionProject

* We’re approaching the 100th anniversary of the 1921 federal election, perhaps the first election to look familiar to our modern eyes.

The full episode is also available on YouTube, as well as on Apple Podcasts and Spotify:

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to past episodes of The Writ Podcast and watch podcast interviews on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.

This week’s podcast title musical inspiration courtesy of Frédéric Chopin:

In the news

* The House re-elects its speaker and hears a throne speech.

* Former NDP MP Pierre Nantel is trying to make a comeback with his third party in as many years.

* Erin O’Toole and Jason Kenney hold on as party leaders.

* Yukon’s minority government survives a confidence vote.

* The Greens have a new interim leader: Amita Kuttner.

Polls of the week

* The next election on the docket is Ontario’s in June, and the Progressive Conservatives are still holding a narrow lead over the opposition Liberals and New Democrats, according to Léger.

* A look at how Canadians are feeling about inflation from Ipsos.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Questions and answers

* If the Liberals met a 1993 PC-level defeat, which seats would be the surviving two?

* Whither the Greens?

* What’s my early take on federal polling trends?

* Do the Quebec Liberals still dominate the anglophone vote?

The #EveryElectionProject

* Jean Chrétien’s last victory in the 2000 Canadian election, when the right was still divided and the Liberals looked set to govern forever.

The full episode is also available on YouTube, as well as on Apple Podcasts and Spotify:

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to past episodes of The Writ Podcast and watch podcast interviews on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.

This week’s podcast title musical inspiration courtesy of Trooper:

In the news

* Erin O’Toole faces a leadership challenge from a senator, who he boots from the Conservative caucus.

* A threshold is reached to force an earlier vote on Jason Kenney’s leadership.

* The governing PCs score a big win in a P.E.I. byelection.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Interview with Aaron Wherry

* Parliament returns on Monday as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tries to navigate another minority government (with or without the help of the NDP?) and Erin O’Toole faces questions about his leadership. To help break it all down, I’m joined again by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry. You can watch the interview on YouTube below:

Questions and answers

* What impact could a People’s Party of Ontario have on next year’s election?

* How would parties change municipal politics in Ontario?

* Could Jason Kenney really consider the nuclear option of an early election?

* Predicting Canadian politics in 2040.

* An update from Elections Canada and when we’ll know the number of late mail ballots.

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to episodes of The Writ Podcast on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.

This week’s podcast title musical inspiration courtesy of NSYNC:

In the news

* Quebec holds its municipal elections, with Valérie Plante beating Denis Coderre in the race to be Montreal’s mayor by a bigger margin than expected.

* The leader of the Nova Scotia NDP announces he’ll be stepping down.

* Another right-wing splinter party hopes to make waves in Ontario’s provincial election in June.

The Writ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

* Prince Edward Island is having a byelection on Monday. Teresa Wright, who teaches journalism at Holland College and has covered P.E.I. and federal politics for years, discusses where things stand politically on the island and what is at stake in the Cornwall–Meadowbank byelection. You can watch my interview with Teresa below:

Questions and answers

* How many federal mail ballots arrived too late to be counted?

* Who will be the next leader of the Green Party?

* A trio of Quebec questions on Québec Solidaire, the stakes for Paul St-Pierre Plamondon in the upcoming byelection, and the history of the “leader’s courtesy” in Quebec.

* Do Saskatchewan people/Saskatchewanians want to be a nation?

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to episodes of The Writ Podcast on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.

This week’s podcast title musical inspiration courtesy of Weezer:

In the news

* The third quarter fundraising numbers are in, and the Conservatives have raised the most money (again), but the Liberals and Bloc Québécois set new records.

* Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer is back to give us the latest in Ontario political news. Check out her newsletter here.

* Last weekend, the Manitoba PCs named their new leader and on Tuesday Heather Stefanson was sworn-in as premier. Curtis Brown of Probe Research joins the show to explain how it all happened, and what’s next in Manitoba politics. You can watch my interview with Curtis below:

Questions and answers

* What happens if the next election is held before the new riding boundaries are set?

* How are Canadian and American elections different?

* Can Brian Jean finally make his way to the Alberta premier’s office?

* The Ontario PCs are trying to woo labour — what’s the role of unions in deciding vote outcomes?

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to episodes of The Writ Podcast on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.

This week’s podcast title musical inspiration courtesy of Shelly Glover and The Beatles:

In the news

* The new federal cabinet has been sworn-in, and it includes two ministers who won their seats by tiny margins.

* Nunavut holds its territorial election, with new faces in half of the assembly’s seats.

* The results of Alberta’s referendum and senatorial votes are in.

* The Manitoba PCs will announce their next leader, and the province’s new premier, on Saturday.

* The Nova Scotia Greens have chosen a new leader.

Polls of the week

* Polls from Nanos Research and Mainstreet Research show no post-election honeymoon for the Liberals.

* Abacus Data shows broad support for requiring MPs to be vaccinated to sit in the House of Commons.

* The Angus Reid Institute gives us an update on how each of the provincial governments are doing.

Questions and answers

* What’s the state of the mayoral race in Montreal?

* Any cabinet surprises?

* Are Liberal minority governments more stable than Conservative minority governments?

* What would a close PC-NDP race in Ontario look like?

#EveryElectionProject

* The 1982 Alberta election, Peter Lougheed’s last election as PC leader and the best performance ever for a Western separatist party.

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to episodes of The Writ Podcast on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.

This week’s podcast title musical inspiration courtesy of Lin-Manuel Miranda:

In the news

* Alberta makes history, electing a woman as mayor of Calgary and someone of South Asian origin as mayor of Edmonton for the first time.

* Elections Canada announces how many seats each province will have after the next re-distribution is completed.

* Alison Coffin resigns as leader of the Newfoundland and Labrador NDP after party delegates vote in favour of a leadership review.

* A provincial byelection will be held in Prince Edward Island on November 15.

Polls of the week

* The Ontario PCs hold a narrow lead against a divided opposition, according to a Léger/Postmedia poll.

* Jason Kenney’s United Conservatives trail the Alberta NDP by 16 points, according to a Mainstreet Research/Western Standard survey.

Questions and answers

* Ranked ballots. That’s the question.

* Who is the B.C. Liberal leadership race frontrunner?

* Has a defeated premier ever made a comeback?

* Who was my voice in Ottawa and Quebec City when I was a wee baby?

#EveryElectionProject

* The 1971 Newfoundland and Labrador election, marking the first defeat for Canada’s last Father of Confederation.

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to episodes of The Writ on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.

This week’s podcast title musical inspiration courtesy of Fatboy Slim:

In the news

* Annamie Paul is still leader of the Green Party, at least until some (more) legal issues are settled.

* Judicial recounts confirm the election results in two federal ridings.

* Nova Scotia finally sets a fixed election date — in the summer?

* Dave Cournoyer of Daveberta.ca and the Daveberta Podcast joins the show to discuss the upcoming municipal, senatorial and referendum votes in Alberta. You can watch the interview on YouTube:

Polls of the week

* The Angus Reid Institute gives us an update on which premiers are up and which are down (hint: most are down). Poll here, my write-up is here.

Questions and answers

* What will be remembered as the lasting legacy of the federal election?

* What are the odds the country goes to the polls before 2025?

* Could any provincial premiers or party leaders make the jump to federal leadership?

#EveryElectionProject

* The 1919 Ontario election, which introduced Ontarians to the concept of UFOs (and not the flying kind).

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to episodes of The Writ on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.

This week’s podcast title musical inspiration courtesy of The Beatles:

Thanks for listening!

* For the Liberals, a win’s a win — but also a warning

* Conservatives still losing where they need to win

This week on The Writ podcast:

In the news

* Erin O’Toole holds a meeting with his new caucus for the first time and emerges with his leadership intact, for now.

* A judicial recount overturns the preliminary results in a Quebec riding, meaning not a single seat changed hands in the province.

* Former Manitoba premier Brian Pallister resigns his seat of Fort Whyte.

* Saskatchewan NDP leader Ryan Meili passes a leadership vote, though not exactly with flying colours.

* Sabrina Nanji of Queen’s Park Observer joins the podcast for her first update on the election goings-on at the Ontario legislature.

Polls of the week

* François Legault is sitting pretty in the latest Léger poll out of Quebec.

* Jason Kenney is sitting…ugly?…in a new ThinkHQ poll out of Alberta.

Questions and answers

* What do the federal results in Quebec say about next year’s provincial election?

* What’s the new path to a majority for the Liberals or Conservatives?

* Notable second-place finishes on election night.

#EveryElectionProject

* The 1987 New Brunswick election, in which voters decided an opposition was optional.

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to episodes of The Writ on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.

This week’s podcast title musical inspiration courtesy of Cheap Trick:

Thanks for listening and have a great Thanksgiving weekend!

In the news

* Annamie Paul resigns as Green Party leader.

* The Liberals won the mail ballots — and it could have mattered a lot had the election been closer. Read more here.

* The polls (mostly) nailed the election, again. Read more here.

Polls of the week

* A post-election “exit poll” from Léger shows us what motivated people to vote for each party.

Questions and answers

* What’s the value of reporting the national numbers in polls or election results?

* What were some big misses in the polls in Canadian elections?

* What are the odds anybody other than the Greens tries to replace their leader?

#EveryElectionProject

* The 1937 Ontario election, won by the Ontario Liberals under the hard-livin’, Mackenzie King-hatin’, Maurice Duplessis-lovin’ Mitch Hepburn.

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to episodes of The Writ on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.

This week’s podcast title musical inspiration courtesy of Radiohead:

Thanks for listening!

In the news

* Will this have been the last election for Trudeau and what will he do with this next term in office?

* The Conservatives and the decisions they need to make about where to go next with the party — more to the centre or back to the right.

* Whether the New Democrats should (or can be) satisfied with their modest gains.

* Maxime Bernier and the future of the People’s Party.

* What the durability of the Bloc Québécois, as well as other parties, means for the future of minority governments in Canada.

* Also: does Baden-Württemberg have a great electoral system, or the greatest electoral system?

Questions and answers

* Did the People’s Party actually cost the Conservatives any seats?

* What should we make of the Greens’ victory in Kitchener Centre?

* Biggest upset of the night.

#EveryElectionProject

* The 1965 Canadian federal election, which returned a parliament that looked nearly the same as the one elected in 1963.

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to episodes of The Writ on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.

This week’s podcast title musical inspiration, from the inimitable Roy Orbison:

Thanks for listening!

Then, we play a game of over/under that you’ll want to listen to.

Finally, on this week’s instalment of the #EveryElectionProject, I’m finishing up the series on recent elections by casting back all the way to the 2019 Canadian federal election.

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT!

On Monday night, I hope you’ll join me for my 2021 Federal Election Livestream on YouTube! The show will start at around 6:30 PM ET and will run until the wee hours of the morning when, hopefully, we’ll have a result. I’ve invited some friends and special guests who will be popping by throughout the night.

You can find the stream here.

It’ll be a lot of fun and I hope to see you there!

I’ll have a special bonus episode for subscribers up early (early) Monday morning after the last polls have been published.

Until then, thanks for listening!

This week’s podcast title musical inspiration:

In the news

* David Coletto is the CEO of Abacus Data and hosts inFocus with David Coletto. He joins me to discuss how the race has unfolded so far and how the Liberal-NDP switchers are the key electorate that could decide the outcome of the election.

* Coletto also describes the PPC’s emerging voting coalition, what is contributing to their rise and whether their vote will turn out on election day.

Questions and answers (with David)

* How to explain the difference in the PPC’s support between online and IVR polls?

* How do pollsters weed out dishonest respondents and avoid being tripped out by demographic unicorns?

* What’s the best way to estimate who will turn out to vote?

Polls of the week

* A run-down of where the federal parties stand. Read more in Wednesday’s article on The Writ.

#EveryElectionProject

* The 2015 Canadian federal election.

This week’s podcast title musical inspiration:

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to episodes of The Writ on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.

Thanks for listening!

In the news

* Corey Hogan can be heard regularly on The Strategists podcast. He’s also a former head of communications for the Alberta governments under Rachel Notley and Jason Kenney, and is now a vice-president at the University of Calgary. We discuss the dynamics of the campaign, how voters, the media and political parties digest polls and how leaders prepare for debates.

Polls of the week

* A run-down of where the federal parties stand. Read more in Wednesday’s article on The Writ.

* The potential impact of Thursday’s French-language debate.

* A look at how many candidates are running — or, if you’re the Greens, not running — in this election.

Questions and answers

* What’s the value of asking people who they think will win?

* Is the PPC impacting the Conservative campaign?

* What’s my approach when I watch debates?

#EveryElectionProject

* The 2011 Canadian federal election.

This week’s podcast title musical inspiration:

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to episodes of The Writ on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here.

Thanks for listening!

In the news

* Sabrina Nanji covers Ontario’s provincial politics in her newsletter, Queen’s Park Observer. She joins me to discuss how the federal election is viewed from the provincial capital, and how Ontario’s parties are getting involved — or staying away from — the federal campaign.

* As a special offer for readers and listeners of The Writ, you can subscribe to Queen’s Park Observer and get 25% off the subscription rate for the next year. Just enough to get you through the 2022 Ontario election!

Polls of the week

* A run-down of where the federal parties stand. Read more in Wednesday’s article on The Writ.

Questions and answers

* Should we pay attention to the polls beyond Ontario?

* With the polls as they are, could Maxime Bernier have qualified for the debate ?

* What’s up with the “Big Mo” in election campaigns?

#EveryElectionProject

* The 2008 Canadian federal election.

This week’s podcast title musical inspiration:

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. You can also listen to episodes of The Writ on YouTube by subscribing to my channel here. Thanks for listening!

In the news

* The CBC’s Aaron Wherry joins me to discuss the first week of the federal election campaign and offers some hot takes on the results in Nova Scotia.

Polls of the week

* A run-down of where the federal parties stand. Read more in today’s article on The Writ.

Questions and answers

* What happened with the polls in Nova Scotia?

* Why does the NDP struggle to secure an enduring foothold in urban centres outside of Western Canada?

* Will the other party leaders bring up Annamie Paul’s leadership issues at the debate?

#EveryElectionProject

* The 2006 Canadian federal election.

This week’s podcast title musical inspiration:

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. Thanks for listening!

In the news

* Liberal incumbents retire and are quickly replaced by some local stars.

* A jurisdictional and political floor-crossing in Saskatchewan.

* Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister says adiós.

Polls of the week

* Abacus Data and the Angus Reid Institute release their last pre-election polls.

* Research Co. gives us a deep dive in British Columbia.

* Narrative Research on the state of the provincial campaign in Nova Scotia.

Questions and answers

* When will the new federal boundaries be redrawn, and what changes should we expect?

* Why is Jason Kenney struggling?

* Whither the undecideds?

#EveryElectionProject

* The 1944 Quebec provincial election.

* Sources: Godbout by Jean-Guy Genest, Dictionary of Canadian Biography: Duplessis, Maurice Le Noblet, by Michel Sarra-Bournet, election-atlas.ca by J.P. Kirby.

This week’s podcast title musical inspiration:

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. Thanks for listening!

In the news

* Speculation has reached a fever pitch that the election call is literally days away.

* Whenever the election is held, we might have to wait a few days before knowing what the result actually is.

* The Conservatives raised the most money in the second quarter of 2021.

Polls of the week

* Léger, Abacus Data and the Angus Reid Institute: Three federal polls conducted in the last week have good news for the Liberals, but not necessarily great news.

* Léger/Postmedia: The United Conservatives in Alberta are trailing behind the NDP (again).

* Léger: It’s a Léger triple-play with a look at the latest numbers in Nova Scotia’s election campaign.

Questions and answers

* Why doesn’t Canada have exit polls?

* If Trudeau wins another minority, does history say he’s toast?

* How much do local issues matter?

#EveryElectionProject

* The 1867 Canadian federal election.

* Sources: Dynasties and Interludes: Past and Present in Canadian Politics by Jon H. Pammett and Lawrence Leduc, Nation Maker: Sir John A. Macdonald: His Life, Our Times by Richard Gwyn and Joseph Howe, Volume II: The Briton Becomes Canadian, 1848-1873 by Murray Beck.

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. Thanks for listening!

In the news

* Nova Scotia’s election campaign rolls on, with a more gender-balanced and diverse slate of candidates.

* Justin Trudeau and Erin O’Toole pay a visit to Atlantic Canada (separately, of course).

* Update on the Green leadership situation, and a lesson learned.

Polls of the week

* Léger, Ipsos, EKOS and Innovative: Four federal polls hit the wires after a dearth of data.

* Mainstreet Research: The first numbers out of the Nova Scotia campaign are good for Iain Rankin’s Liberals.

Questions and answers

* Do re-matches matter?

* Does Derek Sloan matter?

* Could the Green collapse hurt the Conservatives?

* What’s the floor and ceiling for the Nova Scotia PCs and NDP?

#EveryElectionProject

* The 1999 Nova Scotia provincial election.

* Sources: The Halifax Herald and election-atlas.ca by J.P. Kirby.

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. Thanks for listening!

In the news

* Nova Scotia goes to the polls on August 17.

* The immediate threats to Annamie Paul’s Green Party leadership are dropped.

* Mark Carney isn’t running.

Polls of the week

* Angus Reid Institute: No Liberal landslide here.

* Nanos Research: Trudeau hits 40% on Best PM.

Questions and answers

* What are the Conservatives’ prospects in Quebec?

* What explains the divergences in the polls?

#EveryElectionProject

* The 1928 British Columbia provincial election.

* Sources: British Columbia’s Premiers in Profile: The good, the bad and the transient by William Rayner, Duff Pattulo of British Columbia by Robin Fisher, The Canadian Annual Review of Public Affairs, 1927-28 and election-atlas.ca by J.P. Kirby.

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. Thanks for listening!

In the news

* Justin Trudeau heads to Western Canada, announcing funding for transit in Calgary and child care in British Columbia.

* Erin O’Toole pitches an equalization rebate to Albertans.

* Jody Wilson-Raybould announces she will not run for re-election.

* The Green Party saga continues.

Polls of the week

* Abacus Data: What you really think about the federal leaders.

* Nanos Research: O’Toole falls to third on Best Prime Minister.

Questions and answers

* Which party do the Liberals need to go through to win a majority?

* What are the prospects for the New Democrats?

* Do provincial politics have an influence on federal elections?

#EveryElectionProject

* The 1921 Alberta provincial election.

* Sources: John E. Brownlee: A Biography by Franklin Foster, Alberta Premiers of the Twentieth Century edited by Bradford J. Rennie, The Progressive Party in Canada by W.L. Morton and election-atlas.ca by J.P. Kirby.

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. Thanks for listening!

In the news

* Election speculation continues with campaign-style announcements and a new Governor General.

* Will Nova Scotia beat the feds to the election punch?

Polls of the week

* Ipsos/Global News: Liberals lead by 12 points.

* Abacus Data: Liberals also lead by 12 points.

* EKOS Research: Liberals ahead by nine points.

* Nanos Research: Liberals ahead by 14 points, according to David Akin.

* Léger/Canadian Press: Wait, Liberals ahead by only three points?

Questions and answers

* How are the Greens’ chances looking?

* Does the perception of leaders have an impact on party support?

* Could the Conservatives split up, again?

#EveryElectionProject

* The 1974 Canadian federal election

* Sources: Dynasties and Interludes: Past and Present in Canadian Politics by Lawrence Leduc and Jon H. Pammett and election-atlas.ca by J.P. Kirby

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. Thanks for listening!

In the news

* Election speculation, and whether the Liberals might want to go much sooner than later

* The impact of retiring incumbent MPs in Atlantic Canada

* Claire Samson crosses the floor from the Coalition Avenir Québec to … the Quebec Conservatives?

Polls of the week

* Abacus Data: Liberals open a 10-point lead over the Conservatives

* Innovative Research Group: Liberals lead in decisive seat clusters

* Insights West: B.C. NDP down but hold solid lead over B.C. Liberals

Questions and answers

* Which incumbents are in most danger of being defeated?

* Whither the Maverick Party?

#EveryElectionProject

* The 1960 provincial election in New Brunswick

* Source: The Right Fight: Bernard Lord and the Conservative Dilemma by Jacques Poitras

If you have any questions you’d like me to answer in next week’s episode, leave a comment below, tweet me or send me an email. Thanks for listening!

It might not have had the biggest audience, but it had an enthusiastic audience.

So, I’m happy to announce that The Writ podcast has now launched! The podcast will be familiar to listeners of The Pollcast, but it will be a little different, too. Every week, I’m going to discuss a few of the hot button issues in electoral politics, highlight the latest polls, answer your questions and take a trip down memory lane to talk about the history of Canada’s elections.

I’ll also periodically have some guests on the show to either join-in on the discussion or delve more deeply into a particular region or topic.

The podcast will be freely available to everyone on their favourite podcasting platforms, though subscribers will get exclusive access to bonus episodes during election campaigns, or when I have an urgent need for an emergency podcast — you never know when you need to record an emergency podcast.

You’ll be able to find The Writ on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, and probably lots of other places, too. If it isn’t on your preferred platform, let me know (and if it isn’t there yet, check back soon!). Please subscribe, follow, share, like and rate!

Also — every week, I’m hoping to answer listener questions. So, leave a question in the comment section below, tweet at me or send me an email. I’ll answer a couple of them in next week’s first full official episode of The Writ!

Finally, thanks go to my good friend Jamie Grondin for writing and recording the original theme music for the podcast.