* Note to self: never get distracted by Iran.

* A quick phone-in from an expert on the history and geography — which is an island, in case you didn’t know.

* Latin American despots were looksmaxxing before it was cool.

* “If they do anything to Cuba, I’m gonna be really, really mad.”

* Is Flávio Bolsonaro a low-energy candidate?

* What we’re seeing in the polls is a consolidation. Nothing more; nothing less.

* Lula is polling better than some of us would like to think.

* Deep State vs. Deep State Lite.

* How The Big Short has poisoned an entire generation of analysts.

* Some thoughts on VP Geraldo Alckmin.

* Will Mario win Lula the youth vote?

* And much more!

This snippet was taken from the recording of our main episode, which will be dropping in the coming days. To hear that, and our other takes on politics, predictions, and Brazil, make sure you’re subscribed to podgecaste.substack.com.

* Jack’s latest article, Like Our Parents (Como Nossos Pais). Read it now.

* Will Gen Z shift towards Flávio in 2026?

* University or Multi-Level Marketing. The choice is yours.

* Thoughts on Lula’s tribute at Sapucaí.

* ‘Carnaval’s just like football, innit.”

* No one is safe from the North Korean news reader meme.

* Quaaaaaest - It’s Highly Addictive!

* “How weird! You’re weird!”

* A case for Tucker Carlson’s rhetorical style.

* Is Lula risking a Bidenification of his legacy?

* Find me the votes!

* Is anyone going to win over the independents in 2026?

* The Communist Party of Brazil vs. the Brazilian Communist Party. Hint: only one is communist.

* The Generals have been summoned to Lula’s Eastern Front.

* And much more!

* The Secret Agent, and other Oscar predictions.

* Norway, Sweden, Iceland, Greenland. It’s all a block of ice.

* A Ricky Gervais rant on actors and their political opinions.

* A lot of necessary legal throat clearing.

* The Brazilian Report’s Banco Master matrix.

* Is Brazil running the risk of constitutional crisis?

* A who’s who of the Brazilian deep state.

* So much that could have gone wrong, so far, hasn’t.

* Big Brazilian Government ain’t goin’ nowhere.

* Words from the wise on how Flávio Bolsonaro should run his campaign.

* What’s going on with the exchange rate?

* The storm clouds of informational warfare are brewing.

* And much more!

* Delcy Rodríguez is not a terrific person.

* Nissan Navara Media.

* Stop naming companies after random Latin words.

* One too many mentions of Glenn Greenwald.

* Bolsonaro heads to Papudinha.

* Smart TVs vs. Cable. The great legal battle of our time.

* Globo loses the linear narrative.

* January 6 is the only reason you hear about Bolsonaro.

* Operation Car Wash made for a better Italian soap opera.

* Google why Brazil doesn’t have trains, bro.

* Is corruption of the electoral bingo card in 2026?

* Why Flávio Bolsonaro won’t full Bukele on crime.

* You must harness the power of AI.

* The Passcode to the Planalto.

* And much more!

* Excuse the aircon sounds. We’re in a heatwave, because, climate change, or something.

* Boots on the ground is boots on the ground, but it’s not those boots on the ground, so it doesn’t count.

* Glenn Greenwald, Rory Stewart, and Jeremy Corbyn join the podcast.

* It’s legal; it’s not legal; but who cares? We got him.

* The rules-based international order of paper shufflers.

* Is Brazil next?

* María Corina Machado can’t catch a break.

* Biden and the 2022 Brazilian election.

* Trump’s implications for Brazil in 2026.

* Is non-alignment a sustainable foreign policy outlook?

* And much more!

* Our 2025 Polymarket Wrapped.

* That’s it. No more Trump mention markets.

* Shocked not surprised. Surprised not shocked.

* “It’s jail, but Norwegian serial killer jail.”

* Why Flávio Bolsonaro is a candidate worth taking seriously.

* Milicianos by Rafael Soares.

* Brazil’s politically coded criminal organizations.

* Let it go. The Nikki Haley right isn’t coming back.

* Lula’s latest polling ain’t looking pretty.

* And much more!

* Trump and Lula—the meeting we’ve been waiting for.

* “You were in jail? They tried to put me in jail.”

* Nothing to do with Venezuela.

* Little Marco takes the spotlight.

* Peronismo perishes to the sweet tunes of La Renga.

* Lula Makes Boring Great Again (muh-buh-guh).

* The 4D chess of the election no one wants to win.

* 2018 to 2026: the great Brazilian vibe shift.

* Is the Big Tent slowly blowing away?

* A political theory based on an idiom about a horse.

* And much more!

* It’s been a long hiatus, and a lot’s happened.

* “Maduro doesn’t want to f**k around with the United States.”

* The Fifth Column: #524 - BTW, Venezuela is a Dictatorial Commie Narcostate (w/ Thor Halvorssen)

* María Corina Machado is a win for centrist dads.

* The chances for a sustainable post-Maduro government.

* We say this a lot, but dictatorships kinda suck.

* Michelle Bolsonaro: the Brazilian right’s new (old) hope.

* Dear Zema, no one cares about deficits. Dear Tarcísio, no one cares about tunnels.

* Everyone should watch Killer Ratings.

* A look inside the minds of Yuval Noah Harari, Rory Stewart, and Maria Ressa. It ain’t pretty.

* Sorry, MAGA, this is a rules-based podcast (whatever that means).

* John Oliver’s never met a bad take he didn’t like.

* Artificial Intelligence has given us many horrors. But only human intelligence could give us Alastair Campbell vs Curtis Yarvin.

* And much more!

* Blueanon is so much more depressing than Qanon.

* In defense of Trump on Biden.

* Lawfare here. Lawfare there. Lawfare everywhere.

* If only Obama never had a pen and a phone.

* Nothing Ever Happens—September edition.

* Bolsonaro on trial (again).

* ‘Is Selena Gomez Married in 2025’ safer than a treasury bond? (obviously not financial advice)

* The 2026 Brazilian election. Brought to you by the cast of Up.

* Lula’s polls are a best and worst case scenario.

* “It’s your fault I’m running.”

* US military intervention in Venezuela(?)

* Brazilian Wall Street gets raided.

* To Tariff or to Truth. That is the question.

* Deficit, schmeficit.

* And much more!

* Who would would win? The post-1945 liberal world order, or one curious 79-year-old boi?

* Donald J. Trump is the only president to actually enjoy the job.

* The stage is set for the world’s HOTTEST 80s blockbuster.

* Bolsonaro on house arrest.

* Lula and Trump may never speak. Does it matter?

* “In case you forgot, I’m Andrew Cuomo, son of Mario, grandson of Andrea.”

* We miss you, Richard Nixon. And maybe you too, Jimmy Carter.

* JD Vance vs. AOC. What are the chances?

* Gavin Newsom is the Democrats’ most qualified candidate for 2028, and that’s why he’s totally unqualified.

* Trump 1.0 vs Trump 2.0. Which has sent the culture more off the deep-end?

* It’s the End of History—again. Get excited for what comes next.

* And much more!

* Tariff Day is finally here—unless you’re Brazil.

* As always, our predictions were (mostly) spot on.

* Can Alexandre de Moraes still use Netflix?

* The politics of the talking parrot.

* Jack’s definition of a Muppet—courtesy of Homer Simpson.

* Javier Milei’s still holding out for that deal. But, Is no deal better than a deal?

* “If you don’t stop talking about Epstein, we’re doing nuclear war.”

* Hear us out, but Trump, Bannon, and MAGA are probably winning.

* Tucker Carlson and nuclear-war proof dog food.

* What’s next for Bolsonaro?

* And much more!

* Trump finally mentions Brazil—the COLDEST country on Earth.

* TRADE and TARIFFS are back on the menu.

* The funniest leader in human history.

* No rest for the potentially primaried.

* The EU says, “no more straight bananas for you.”

* Did Steve Bannon end hypocrisy on the right by making it socialist?

* “Yah, so, generally speaking, we’re doing the America Party.”

* Envelopes full of trade deals.

* Is Brazil getting a deal before Argentina?

* And much more!

* The definition of a suit.

* Did Trump make the right call?

* Our PhDs in New York municipal politics.

* Staten Island socialists.

* Unsolicited advice for Democrat strategists.

* Nothing to report from Brazil.

* Are musical biopics the worst genre of all time?

* The Social Network II—the sequel no one asked for.

* Nothing Ever Happens as stoicism’s kryptonite.

* Out of context Adam Curtis chat.

* And much more!

* The ‘Nothing Ever Happens’ philosophy.

* Rory Stewart joins us for a quick explainer.

* Did something really happen?

* Dominic Cummings and the future of warfare.

* The turmoil of Nate Silver’s approval ratings.

* The Oval Office is just a podcast studio, bro.

* Lula’s G7 gameplan.

* Bolsonaro takes the stand.

* Elon out at Tesla?

* And much more!

In an attempt to streamline our ramblings, we’re now splitting the show into two segments.

Our main episode will become the place for more deep-dives on Brazil, while Podgecaste Predictions will be the place where we muse on a wider range of global and pop culture events (in our characteristically uninformed manner) through the murky but fascinating lens of prediction markets.

Yes, we're dusting off our 'We're not going back!' hats and our 'When We Fight, We Win' foam fingers, all while trying to tame our impulses to make terrible predictions on Eastern European elections and other things we know little about. Instead, we'll strive for a more measured approach to a world where maybe, just maybe, Nothing Ever Happens.

Join us as we stare into the crystal ball of X/Twitter, Truth Social, LinkedIn psychosis, cursed AI prompts and random stuff we overheard or misremember, all in a bid to recoup our losses and avoid ruin. Will we succeed? The odds are looking slim.

Fortunately for us, Chris was also generous enough to discuss some of his own adventures in Brazil. His deep ties to the country go back generations, and over the years he has worn many hats — from record store owner and music-scene connector to would-be hamburger mogul, just to name a few.

* Lady Gaga’s mega show at Copacabana beach.

* Should the public foot the bill?

* Eduardo Paes, a California Democrat(?)

* A (reluctant) take on the Australian election.

* Can Brazil make 2026 boring again?

* We used to have protests. Where’d they all go?

* Lula, the Goldman Sachs central banker.

* Does anyone care about economics anymore?

* Glenn Greenwald goes before the Brazilian senate.

* Our latest Polymarket predictions.

* And much more!

* The rise and fall of Big Brother Brasil.

* Is Brazil still Catholic? The numbers.

* Brazil’s rise of evangelical/protestant Christianity.

* How did FHC get away with being agnostic?

* The diversity of the Brazilian family.

* Street preachers need better mics.

* Flordelis on Ana Maria Braga.

* Thoughts on Papa Francisco and the next Pope.

* Oliver Stone and Lula.

* Best JFK conspiracy takes.

* And much more!

Across a multitude of roles, Chris has acted as a bridge between Anglo and Brazilian cultures — writing hundreds of thousands of words about Brazilian film, music, and culture in published books, articles, and scripts, while also producing TV shows and documentaries.

But he’s perhaps best known for his enduring professional and personal relationship with Brazil’s most famous gringo: Ronnie Biggs.

* Has the deal been arted?

* Jack’s A-Level class on bonds.

* David Sacks is a genius.

* Haddad x Mônica Bergamo

* Does black-and-white footage make you more serious?

* Haddad’s PhD thesis.

* Has the US ‘lost’ the gloabalization game?

* Chris’s tirade on tariffs. Spoiler: they don’t work.

* Upside-down bullet trains going under bridges.

* Everyone loves the free market all of a sudden.

* And much more!

* You get a tariff! You get a tariff! Everybody gets a tariff!

* Trump on The View vs. Trump on Ellen.

* Jack’s updates from Civil War Island.

* The blessings of a few weeks off podcasting.

* Does Big Money work in Brazilian politics?

* The trials of Tony Mokbel and Ronnie Biggs.

* Brazil’s peculiar extradition protections.

* Chris watched The Sopranos—in case anyone cares.

* Has Trump 2.0 made Bolsonarismo boring?

* Brazil’s fast-paced right-wing media landscape is struggling.

* Pâncio’s golden days. A few highlights:

* Glenn Greenwald.

* André Marinho Part 1.

* André Marinho Part 2.

* Conspiratorial thinking. Who does it best?

* And much more!

* Russel Brand reads Jack’s article.

* Bolsonaro vs. Tech Bros—who brings more mystique?

* A case for Dominic Cummings.

* Tony Soprano economics.

* Tariffs are a tactic, or they make us rich. Pick one.

* Rumble vs. Alexandre de Moraes.

* More Glenn impressions.

* Does AI need to be based?

* Lula gets something right—kinda sorta.

* Final Oscar predictions.

* Tucker has no evidence, but he’s 100% sure of it.

* Bonus Easter egg.

* And much more!

* Milei’s crypto blunder.

* Is 60 Minutes making TV great again?

* Brazil’s bot armies.

* I’m Still Here on Amanpour.

* Are the BAFTAs an omen for Brazil’s Oscar chances?

* Jesse Singal on DOGE.

* Setting the record straight on the Bolsonaro years.

* Note: we recorded this before Bolsonaro being charged.

* Did JFK order the ‘64 coup?

* Tucker vs. Pinochet.

* Throwback to the 2018 election.

* Lula vs. Moro—the OG podcast.

* That Bolsonaro speech.

* Brazil’s Big Bad Biden Bet—read it now.

* Non-sensical AI creations.

* Jack’s next article.

* And much more!

* Ciro is GOAT’d.

* Lula needs Malcolm Tucker.

* The student politics comms genius.

* Who are Brazil’s new overlords?

* A deep dive on the Centrão.

* Is the Centrão a force for good?

* Thoughts on The Edge of Democracy and The Trial.

* The (grammatical) problem with DOGE.

* Bannon’s Brazil.

* The Glenn Greenwald impression is ready to go.

* More Lula as Trump.

* Fernanda Torres (again, but you know, SEO).

* And much more!

* Trump vs. Petro vs. Lula vs. Trump.

* Can LatAm leaders out-deal the Donald, or does the US always win?

* Brazil prepares to be tariffed.

* Musings on Trump 2.0 and immigration.

* A rare case for civil liberties.

* Are we for or against drivers’ licenses?

* Kash Patel looks home and dry.

* Tulsi’s looking shaky.

* One of the best Bernie impression you’ve ever heard.

* Is MAHA just the EU on sterioids?

* A lesson on how to pronounce Demi Moore.

* Will Fernanda Torres get over the line?

* Our Polymarket nightmare (listen to the end).

* And much more!

* The Trouble with Sam Harris.

* Faz o Pix.

* Lula’s Globo L (clip mentioned).

* Nikolas Ferreira — President in twenty-thirty-something (clip mentioned).

* Haddad goes full McCarthy (clip mentioned).

* What is even the point of John Oliver?

* Gregório Duvivier loves a chicken shop.

* Fernanda Torres and the two Jimmys.

* Say Nothing vs. I’m Still Here (culture vulture alert).

* Why didn’t Joseph put the God-darn Tok Tik back on the interweb?

* Polymarket’s so back.

* Inauguration address predictions.

* Farewell, Joseph. We probably won’t remember you.

* Musings on Civil War (the movie, not a prediction for 2025).

* MAGA Civil War.

* Elon vs. the groypers.

* Tariff, it’s a beautiful word.

* The tech bros and the master strategy.

* Steve Bannon vs. the nerds.

* Is Luigi Mangione the first centrist dad terrorist?

* Make Spending Cuts Cool Again.

* The biggest Brazilian internet stars of 2024.

* Outlandish Brazpol predictions.

* And much more!

* Is the Brazilian economy so over or so back?

* It’s another crisis, and of course, memes are to blame.

* Does the dollar really matter?

* 69% of Brazilians prefer democracy, but to what?

* How Brazilians feel about the chance of another dictatorship.

* Christmas boteco quiz (are you going to Balneário?).

* Was 2024 tankavel?

* Failed niche impressions.

* Who said it?

* We are Bluesky. We are The Resistance.

* And much more!

* Super stable and neurologically perfect.

* Few men can save democracy, and they’re all in their 80s, apparently.

* What’s going on with that Quaest poll?

* Pedro Menezes (friend of the show) thinks the electorate will punish Bolsonaro. We’re not so sure.

* Check out his livestream here.

* We’ll never forget that meeting.

* Braga Neto arrested. Where does Bolsonaro go from here?

* Faria Lima’s not happy. Does it matter?

* Milei vs. Big Papa government.

* Is there a word more beautiful than tariff?

* Chances of a Mangione guilty plea.

* What’s going on with those drones?

* And much more!

* The vicious novela cycle.

* Central do Brasil (trailer here).

* Was Fernanda Montenegro robbed of the Oscar in ‘99?

* Our best Brazilian film picks (Chris’s pick & Jack’s pick).

* Ramblings on “I’m Still Here”. Spoiler: we’re (kinda) fans, but ehhhhhh.

* Why can’t we have just a little more nuance?

* Dictatorships are bad.

* The amnesty—pros and cons.

* Bolsonaro’s villain origin story. Correction below.*

* There was (allegedly) meant to be a coup. Why didn’t it happen?

*Correction: Jair Bolsonaro lived in the same town as the farm discussed, which belonged to Rubens Paiva’s father, Jaime de Almeida Paiva, but did not live on the farm itself. Also, Bolsonaro’s father did not work on the farm. Read the full BBC article for all the details.

Luiz é especialista na conexão entre cibercultura e política e vem acompanhando figuras como Pablo Marçal, candidato na última eleição à prefeitura de São Paulo, e Rick Azevedo, cujo trabalho tem sido fundamental nas campanhas pelo fim da escala 6x1. Além disso, Luiz tem opinões sobre como a esquerda brasileira pode traçar suas estratégias para as eleições de 2026.

Para conhecer melhor o trabalho do Luiz, inscreva-se ao Margem de Erro:

* Rory Stewart (no hard feelings, Rory).

* Jack’s wild election night losing streak.

* It’s ‘literally’ fascism, but you know, the world keeps turning.

* Did hard work deliver results?

* Trump and his three musketeers.

* Will the Democrats ever learn?

* Mandatory tallow fat is coming to a McDonald’s near you.

* Brazil’s Prince Imperial dies.

* Lula on Amanpour.

* Bolsonaro wants to run, but will they let him?

* Is there any hope of avoiding a 2020 repeat?

* Keir Starmer’s accent.

* Our dwindling Polymarket portfolio.

* Centrist dads sell out the O2.

* Is Trump going to win bigly?

* The grifter becomes the grifted.

* Are billionaires elites?

* Tim Walz is actually a blue man.

* Brazilian election debrief.

* Why Brazilian politics needs philosophers.

* Bolsonaro’s looming eligibility.

* Is Dark Ciro our only hope in 2026?

* Jack’s slipping grip on (political) reality.

* Trump and the untapped demographics.

* Does the election circus meaning anything at the end of the day?

* Kamala loves the gavel.

* Peak Obama-era cringe is back.

* Predictions for Trump on Rogan.

* Final predictions for the Brazilian mayoral elections.

* Why does Boulos seem chill all of a sudden?

* The shower ghost of the Palácio do Planalto.

* Termite trouble.

* BRICS hype.

Topics discussed:

* Has Brazil reached peak semi-presidentialism?

* The people who voted for the monarchy in ‘94.

* Was Dilma really the victim of a coup?

* Brazil’s “secret budget”.

* What is a centrão, and why does it matter?

* The pros and cons of a parliamentary system for Brazil.

* The changing face of Brazil’s judiciary.

* The legalities of the X ban.

* X’s finally back!

* Brazil loves X and we (secretly) love it.

* We know Felipe Neto hated Bluesky.

* Can Polymarket swing an election?

* This is all very exciting, but mind’s are probably made up.

* How do you pronounce Tugendhat?

* James Cleverly may not be so clever.

* Kemi’s set to bring to it home.

* We don’t blame Walz. We also don’t remember where we were during Tiananmen Square.

* Democrats want you to know that democracy is (yet again) on the ballot.

* Tim Walz wants you to know he’s a knucklehead. Spoiler: we know.

* Breaking: Donald Trump does not frequent Walmart.

* Is JD Vance a Will Hunting at heart?

* Boulos lines up to run the ball.

* Lula keeps the attack dogs at bay. But for how long?

* Can Brazil’s right ever unite again?

* More Trumpian Lula.

* Why are Democrats so bad at loving freedom?

* Trump loves that guy in the sky.

* Predictions for the VP showdown.

* The weird thing is getting kind of weird.

* Musk vs. Moraes: is there a winner?

* The trials of Monark.

* Is John Lennon’s Imagine a foreign policy manifesto?

* Lula’s turning into the Donald.

* Why is Boulos like this?

* Jack’s big prediction for November.

* Is Kamala getting voters out or keeping them at home?

* JD Vance vs. Tim Walz: first impressions for the VP title bout.

* Musings on Polymarket.

* Obligatory updates on X in Brazil.

* Who is Datena, and why is he throwing chairs?

* The Pablo Marçal factor: is Brazil destined to fazer o M?

* The debate’s three losers.

* That weird Dick Cheney shoutout.

* Is X [insert obligatory reminder of what it used to be called] ever coming back to Brazil?

* The flop that was 7 de setembro and Bolsonaro’s struggles in local politics.

* What the hell is going on in São Paulo?

* Is Tabata Amaral Brazil’s answer to JD Vance?

* Deolane Bezerra (no further comment required).

* The ethics of influencer advertising.