Dave Sather of Sather Financial Group presented his investment thesis on UnitedHealth Group (US: UNH) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

UnitedHealth Group is the largest health insurer in the United States and one of the “most hated” companies in the country. It comprises two parts: UnitedHealthcare, which underwrites risk and insures roughly 50.9 million members, ahead of Elevance at 45.2 million; and Optum, which owns clinics, physicians, data, and pharmacy infrastructure. Optum Health employs or contracts about 90,000 physicians, roughly 10% of the US workforce; Optum Insight holds the largest de-identified clinical and claims database, covering about 330 million people, 9 of 10 hospitals, and 4 of 5 health plans; and Optum Rx is the third-largest PBM at about 23% share. Dave frames the combination as a flywheel: Optum’s data sharpens UnitedHealthcare’s underwriting, and the same tools are sold to other participants.

The moat rests on scale and predictive data, evidenced by a best-in-class MLR averaging 82.8% over the past decade. Dave notes the moat was tested when Haven, the 2018 Amazon, Berkshire, and JPMorgan JV, tried to displace managed care and disbanded by 2021. Todd Combs, its driving force, later bought UNH stock for Berkshire. Dave views Morningstar’s narrow-moat rating as misplaced.

The shares recently traded near where they sat five years ago, weighed down by the Change Healthcare cyberattack, the CEO murder, a DOJ billing probe, Medicare Advantage rate fears, and PBM reform. Dave argues these are largely cyclical or overstated. A late-2025 Humana ruling barring sample extrapolation undercuts the $26 billion liability figure, and the 2027 MA final rate came in better than feared. The core issue, elevated post-COVID utilization, is short-tail and reprices every 12 months.

Returning CEO Stephen Hemsley, the architect of modern UNH, is repricing the book, exiting international and unprofitable accounts, shrinking enrollment, and pushing an AI-first agenda funded by $1.5 billion in 2026 at an expected 2:1 return. His pay is almost entirely stock options with three-year cliff vesting, and he has replaced 50 of the top 100 leaders.

Dave’s earnings-based two-stage DCF, using a 16x exit P/E, an 11.5% discount rate, an MLR improving to 85% by 2028, and roughly 12% EPS CAGR, supports about $460 against a recent quote near $409. EPS recently ran about $16.29 while FCF exceeded $21 per share. Management’s 13% to 16% EPS targets imply a $482 to $600 range. Dave sees about 10% downside against about 50% upside.

Disclaimer

Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2026 was held from June 23-26, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Chris Crawford of Crawford Fund Management presented his investment thesis on Toast (NYSE: TOST) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

Toast is the leading integrated operating and payment system for restaurants, and Chris frames it as a rare combination of growth, moat, and value. The company blends purpose-built hardware, cloud software, embedded AI, and a lending arm (Toast Capital) into one system that touches every restaurant function: order management, kitchen workflow, payments, scheduling, inventory, marketing, and financial reporting. Two MIT classmates, Aman Narang and Steve Fredette, founded the business in 2011 and still run it.

Over the past several years TOST has grown sales tenfold, from about $700 million to $7+ billion, with gross profit compounding at a 72% CAGR. EBITDA and FCF both inflected positive over the past 18 months. Payments are two-thirds of revenue and the higher-margin SaaS platform one-third. Toast holds ~15% of a fragmented US market, ahead of cloud rivals Clover and Square and taking share from legacy donors Micros and Aloha.

Chris locates the moat in switching costs, the largest factor, reinforced by proprietary data and network effects, purpose-built hardware suited to a harsh restaurant environment, and a strengthening brand. Once Toast is embedded across menus, suppliers, payments, and staff training, displacing it is hard. Growth should come from new-market penetration, international and retail expansion, higher module uptake per customer, AI adoption, and mix shift toward the SaaS platform. The TAM spans roughly 1.1 million restaurants in current markets and 15 million globally ex-China.

The founders own about 9% (~$1.3 billion) and draw modest pay. The balance sheet holds $1.7 billion of net cash and no debt, which funded a first-ever buyback in Q1 at roughly a 6% annual run rate. ValueAct raised its stake, and TOST is set to join the S&P 400. Chris views AI as a tailwind rather than a disintermediation threat; other watch items are macro and consumer softness, restaurant failure rates, and interchange economics.

On valuation, the shares recently traded near $26 against Chris’s $48 blended appraisal, roughly 80% upside. His three DCF scenarios, all discounted at 10% with risk carried in the operating assumptions, span a $24 bear case, a $45 base case that already assumes growth fading to 5%, and a $64 upside case. At 2.1x EV/revenue, TOST sits near its post-IPO low; a 3.2x historical average implies $42 and a 3.75x peer multiple implies $49. No credit is given for buyback accretion.

Disclaimer

Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2026 was held from June 23-26, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Jiro Yasu of Varecs Partners presented his investment thesis on Oro Co (Japan: 3983) at Asian Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

Oro is a Tokyo-listed software company whose high-quality Cloud Solutions ERP franchise is obscured by a struggling Marketing Solutions segment, a cash-heavy balance sheet, and a resulting conglomerate discount.

Jiro sees an opportunity to own a founder-led Japanese compounder at an attractive price, with catalysts tied to a potential Marketing Solutions divestiture and further capital-allocation improvement. Founders Atsushi Kawata (CEO, 37.67% ownership) and Yasuhisa Hino (17.02% ownership) started the company in 1999 and, per Jiro, engage openly on shareholder-return and portfolio-optimization topics.

Cloud Solutions, which serves project-based businesses such as IT services, system development, advertising, and consulting, contributes 68% of revenue and 94% of operating profit at segment OPM above 40%. FY2025 segment revenue was 5.6B yen and operating profit 2.5B yen, with 10-year revenue and profit CAGRs of 14.9% and 20.8%. Growth is being driven by new customer additions of 80–90 per year against a base of 1,100 clients, rising licenses per client, NRR of 116%, churn of 0.3%, and the January 2023 shift to SaaS-only contracts, which Jiro expects to support further margin expansion. Management targets 4,000 clients against an estimated 44,000 domestic targets.

Marketing Solutions, concentrated on Nissan and Aeon, generated 2.6B yen of revenue but only 0.1B yen of operating profit in FY2025, with a 10-year profit CAGR of negative 5.6%. Jiro believes a sale for 2–3B yen is plausible, removing a visible drag and allowing the market to reprice the Cloud franchise on its own.

Capital allocation has inflected. Net cash has grown from 1B to 10B yen, or 70% of total assets. Buybacks have stepped up from 500M yen in 2024 to 1B yen in 2025 and another 1B yen announced for 2026, with payout exceeding 40% and a 2.5% dividend yield. Jiro believes Oro should distribute more than 100% of profit going forward given the modest capital needs of the business.

Oro recently traded at 6.7x EV/EBITDA and 15.7x P/E, or roughly 10x ex-cash, a discount to Japanese software peers trading at a median 13.5x EV/EBITDA and 23.4x P/E. VARECS’ three-year base case assumes a 7.6x EV/EBIT multiple on FY2028E EBIT of 4.6B yen and a 10% share-count reduction, yielding ~66% upside from a recent 1,900 yen. A spin-off plus multiple expansion to 10x implies 104% upside; combined with a 25% buyback, upside reaches 145%.

Disclaimer

Asian Investing Summit 2026 was held from April 14-21, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Kimi Venkataraman and Sidd Thomas of India Intrinsic Value Consultants presented their investment thesis on Lycopodium Ltd (Australia: LYL) at Asian Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

Lycopodium is a Perth-based engineering and project delivery services firm serving the resources sector, founded in 1992 and listed on the ASX in 2004. Sidd and Kimi describe a 30-plus-year-old business that derives roughly 94% of revenue from miners in gold, copper, lithium, rare earths, uranium, titanium and mineral sands, with no equity raises since listing. The three founders — Rodney Leonard, Michael Caratti and CEO Peter De Leo — remain involved and collectively own about 30% of the equity, aligning management with outside shareholders. Market cap recently stood at about A$530 million (about US$365 million) at a share price of A$13.30.

The core of the thesis rests on Lycopodium’s predominantly EPCM (engineering, procurement and construction management) model, which Sidd and Kimi contrast with the lump-sum EPC model that dominates listed peers. In EPCM, the owner bears cost-overrun risk while Lycopodium earns a cost-plus professional services fee, making the business capital-light, free of balance-sheet exposure, and capable of generating 30%-plus ROE (FY25). Today roughly 80%-plus of revenue sits in EPCM, with the EPC-heavier exposure largely ring-fenced via a 40/60 JV with Monadelphous. Kimi emphasizes a “study-to-EPCM flywheel”: the firm runs 40-plus scoping, PFS, FS and DFS studies at any point, and miners who use Lycopodium for feasibility almost always award it the EPCM, which in turn feeds recurring optimization work. Committed contracts stood at A$415 million with a A$1.3 billion opportunity pipeline as of December 2025.

Competitive strengths include on-time, at-budget delivery track record, two-thirds of revenue from repeat clients, a client list that includes Newmont, Rio Tinto and Anglo American Platinum, and 30-plus years of metallurgical and process data that is not replicable by new entrants. About 57% of FY25 revenue came from Africa, an area of relative strength given few established peers. In 2024, Lycopodium entered the Americas through its acquisition of Argentine firm SAXUM, which management estimates expands its TAM by about 40%. Tailwinds include high gold prices (six-plus active gold EPCM projects), a looming copper deficit driven by the energy transition, and battery-mineral demand (lithium, nickel, graphite, rare earths). The principal risk, as highlighted by the 2013-2017 commodity downturn and reinforced by Kimi, is a mining capex cycle that compresses miners’ access to financing, which historically forced Lycopodium to take on EPC risk and produced its only loss year (FY15).

Revenue grew from A$162 million in FY21 to A$340 million in FY25 (about 20% CAGR), while NPAT grew from A$14 million to A$42 million (about 31% CAGR), with net income margins expanding from 8.8% to peaks of 14.5% before softening to 12.4% in FY25. The balance sheet carries A$79 million of net cash and zero debt. The payout ratio averaged in the high 60s until FY25, when management cut payout to 33% to fund SAXUM — an unusual attribute of a business that has compounded earnings while distributing two-thirds of profits. Over the 20 years since listing, revenue compounded at 8.2%, net income at 10.8%, dividends at 11.3%, and total shareholder return (including dividends reinvested) at 14.9% CAGR.

Kimi and Sidd frame valuation by projecting the past 20-year track record forward 20 years. Starting from a current market cap of A$531 million, they estimate cumulative dividends reinvested at 3% of A$1,795 million, terminal NPAT of A$262 million, and apply a deliberately conservative terminal P/E of 7x (compared with a trailing P/E of about 15x today and peer multiples of 17-40x trailing) for a terminal value of A$1,837 million. Total expected value of A$3,632 million implies an expected return of about 10.1% CAGR over two decades. The shares recently traded at a trailing P/E of 15x against a depressed FY25 earnings base; Kimi notes that low near-term earnings — with FY26 expected roughly flat to FY25 — are precisely what create the current opportunity as feasibility projects convert into EPCM delivery and SAXUM contributes to the Americas pipeline.

Disclaimer

Asian Investing Summit 2026 was held from April 14-21, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Gokul Raj Ponnuraj of Bavaria Industries Group presented his in-depth investment thesis on Motilal Oswal Financial Services (India: MOTILALOFS) at Asian Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

Motilal Oswal is an India-based, vertically integrated capital markets firm with a $4.5 billion market cap and franchises across asset management, wealth management, broking, investment banking, alternates, and financial distribution. Gokul Raj presented the company at the Asian Investing Summit 2026 as a way to participate in the financialization of Indian household savings. Insiders own more than 75% of the equity, and the business has compounded book value per share at 21%+ in USD terms (25%+ in INR) over the past decade, with revenues, AUM and profits all up roughly 10x over that period. The model is capital-light: the firm IPOed once, has not raised additional equity, has executed two buybacks, and has generated FCF since inception, which has been recycled into a treasury book that earns a low-20s IRR and provides funding advantages for the operating businesses.

The structural thesis rests on India’s underpenetrated equity culture and a rare cluster of growth drivers: 7%+ GDP growth, demographics, formalization, an under-levered household and corporate balance sheet, and a regulatory regime that has built a fully digital, transparent capital markets infrastructure. Gokul Raj estimates cumulative Indian gross savings of roughly $47 trillion over 15 years, with $3-4 trillion potentially flowing into capital markets at current allocation rates. Domestic investors now own ~85% of the market and SIP flows have been a relentless monthly bid, even as foreign investors have sold roughly $50 billion. Indian equities have underperformed EM by 25%+ over two years, the median stock is down 50% from its highs, and Motilal has corrected with the market – which Gokul Raj views as the entry point.

The mix shift in earnings is at the core of the re-rating case. Asset management has scaled 3x in five years, with mutual fund SIP AUM up ~6x and incremental flow market share of 8-10% versus a 3% stock share. Alternates – PE, real estate and a newly launched private credit fund – has delivered 20%+ IRRs across vintages, allowing each successive fund to be 2-3x the size of the prior one, with ~60% of carry accruing to shareholders given heavy insider ownership of the listed entity. Private wealth, entered in 2016, has grown net revenues and AUM 4-5x in five years, runs at 50%+ margins at scale, and benefits from RMs that are still on average only ~3 years vintage. The legacy broking franchise, now positioned as a full-service wealth distribution channel, has absorbed share losses to discount brokers by consolidating the tail and has built a high-rated lending book (margin trading and LAS) that has delivered near-zero credit costs across cycles.

Quality of earnings has shifted from broking-led to wealth- and asset-management-led, which now contribute over 50% of operating PAT and are tracking toward 70-80% within two to three years. Annual recurring revenue is ~60% of consolidated revenues; firms that have crossed the 65-70% ARR threshold (e.g., 360 ONE) trade at 30-40x PAT. Blended ROE will keep rising as the housing finance unit – the only capital-heavy and historically problematic operation, now cleaned up at <1% GNPA and 12-14% ROE – is monetized via IPO or sale within two to three years. Founders have pledged ~$500 million (10% of holdings) to education-related philanthropy over the next 5-10 years; the resulting promoter dilution would lift the regulatory cap on buybacks and likely accelerate repurchases when shares are cheap. Succession is in place, with both founders’ sons in operating roles and ~$300 million of equity held by non-family insiders.

The shares recently traded at less than 14x trailing operating profit after tax and 3x book value, with the treasury (~20% of firm value, ~70% public equity / 30% alternates) carried at what Gokul Raj considers a conservative 20% holdco discount. Stripping out MTM noise that has cluttered reported P&L over the past six months, Gokul Raj argues the operating business can compound earnings at 15-20% over the next decade, with optionality from margin expansion, ARR mix shift, buybacks, and a multiple re-rating toward the 30-40x PAT range that the market awards to pure wealth and asset management franchises. The downside is largely tied to a prolonged Indian equity drawdown – a scenario in which earnings might be hit by ~10% on a worst-case basis, while the high-beta franchise would offer leverage to any subsequent recovery.

Disclaimer

Asian Investing Summit 2026 was held from April 14-21, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Roshan Padamadan of Luminance Capital presented his investment thesis on Chagee (Nasdaq: CHA) at Asian Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

Chagee is a premium fresh-leaf tea platform based in China aiming to become the “Starbucks of tea” through global expansion. Founded in 2017 in Yunnan by Zhang Junjie — now China’s youngest billionaire, retaining ~35% ownership — Chagee operates 7,453 stores globally, with ~6,700 in Greater China, and brews via a proprietary “tea espresso” machine delivering ±2% consistency across geographies versus an estimated ±10% for barista-made products. Priced around 20 yuan (~$4-5) per drink, it targets the upwardly-mobile Chinese consumer and an under-branded global tea category with no dominant premium player.

The model is 82% franchised, with Chagee collecting royalties and supplying tea and ingredients at high margins, while its app (~177M registered users, ~45M active) drives ~90% of footfall. Store closure rates run at ~2%, well below the industry median, and franchise unit economics hold up even after monthly per-store revenues normalized from over RMB 500K to the RMB 350-400K range. Company-owned stores — 18% of revenue but +126% YoY in Q4 2025 — handle brand control in Singapore (~20 stores), the US (seven in LA), and Korea (new launch).

China is shifting from growth to cash generation, while international rollout — Korea, Malaysia (300-store franchise plan), Thailand JV, US, Middle East, and Europe — carries the valuation narrative. Same-store sales in China fell 20-24% in 2025 as Alibaba- and Meituan-led discount wars pulled coupon-seeking consumers toward mass-market peers HEYTEA and Mixue, but Chagee declined to participate, protecting brand equity. Chinese regulators have since pressured such discounting, which Roshan expects to improve sentiment during 2026.

FY2025 revenue was RMB 12.91B (~$1.85B), net income RMB 1.19B (~$170M), and non-GAAP net income RMB 1.91B (~$273M). The shares recently traded at ~$10 versus the April 2025 IPO at $28, implying a market cap of ~$1.7B, offset by a cash balance comprising a large share of that market cap, no debt, and ~$400M of annual FCF distributed as a dividend last December (~8-9% yield). Multiples are ~0.92x EV/Revenue, ~5.5x EV/EBITDA, and a single-digit P/E ex-cash. JPMorgan recently set a $16 target on stabilizing same-store sales in 2026, implying ~60% upside. Roshan views Chagee as a combination of value and growth with multi-bagger potential over 5-10 years, cushioned by cash and dividend yield.

Disclaimer

Asian Investing Summit 2026 was held from April 14-21, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Note by John: This is an exceptionally well-articulated and compelling investment thesis, articulated by a highly knowledgable former employee of the subject company (Sasken). Even if you do not have access to the Indian equity markets, you may like to watch this presentation. It touches substantively on several US-listed companies, including Infosys and Qualcomm.

Hitesh Kumar of Kosha Capital Advisors presented his in-depth investment thesis on Sasken Technologies (India: SASKEN) at Asian Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

Sasken is a ~$200 million market cap Indian embedded engineering firm with a 30-year heritage turning silicon into intelligent devices. Hitesh frames it as a company building a differentiated “Chip-to-Device” platform, spanning silicon design, embedded software, OS/platform, and device ODM, a combination no Indian ER&D peer matches. The business has absorbed multiple platform cycles (TI OMAP, Symbian, semiconductor consolidation) by investing in R&D and won a Rs 2.76 Bn IP arbitration in FY16. FY26E revenue of Rs 6,980 Mn (+27% YoY) brings organic scale back to the FY09 peak, now on a more diversified book.

The 60x4x3 strategy (grow 60 marquee accounts to $4M+ revenue each within three years) is reshaping the customer mix. Top 2 customer concentration has fallen from 50% in FY09 to 17% in FY25, while $4M+ accounts rose from 1 to 5. Headcount grew 54% between Q2 FY24 and Q3 FY26, temporarily compressing EBITDA margins from 27% to sub-5%; the latest quarters show recovery to 12–17% as utilization normalizes toward 80%.

Two acquisitions totaling ~Rs 400 Cr over 18 months completed the stack. Sasken Silicon (60% for Rs 33 Cr in FY24, led by ex-Qualcomm engineer Dr. Anup Savla) adds custom ASIC, RF/mmWave, and power-management IC capabilities with TSMC/GlobalFoundries/UMC foundry ties. BORQS Technologies ($40M, FY25) contributes end-to-end Android ODM, 130+ patents, and a 200+ member Qualcomm ODC. Combined with Sasken’s existing 100+ member Qualcomm ODC, the merged team engineers >85% of Qualcomm’s chipsets, positioning Sasken to ride Qualcomm’s $45 Bn SDV design-win pipeline, NTN satellite, IoT, and XR.

Corporate governance reads like a large-cap: 75% independent board, fully independent audit committee, zero audit qualifications across FY03–FY25, and a 20-year uninterrupted dividend with ~80% of the FY16 IP windfall returned to owners. Rs 300+ Cr of cash (~15% of market cap) provides downside protection.

The shares recently traded at ~30x FY26E P/E, a depressed-earnings year. On conservative FY28E assumptions ($150M revenue (only 11% CAGR versus recent 30–35% organic growth), services EBITDA at the low end of 14–17% management guidance, and no new ODM wins) EBIT could re-rate 3–4x and ROE (ex-cash) from 3% to ~24%. That implies ~12x FY28E P/E, ~7x EV/EBITDA, and 2.0x P/B versus peer medians of ~20x, ~13x, and 5.8x, a 40–65% discount for a business with visible order-book conversion, Qualcomm entrenchment, and tier-1 governance.

Disclaimer

Asian Investing Summit 2026 was held from April 14-21, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Omar Malik of Hosking Partners presented his in-depth investment thesis on Hikari Tsushin (Japan: 9435) at Asian Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

Hikari Tsushin is a Japanese holding company comprising three arms — a core distribution business, a listed equity portfolio, and opportunistic M&A — described by Omar of Hosking Partners as an outlier within corporate Japan. Founded by Yasumitsu Shigeta, who rebuilt the firm after a 99% drawdown in 2000, the group pivoted in 2010 toward in-house recurring-revenue products and a Berkshire-inspired capital-allocation framework. Over 15 years, Hikari has compounded operating profit above 20%, book value and dividends at 17% each, maintained ROE above 16%, and reduced share count by 18%.

The core business distributes essential services — electricity and gas, telecom lines, office water, and smartphone and home-appliance insurance — through roughly 1,000 agency partners housing 20,000 salespeople who sit on agency P&Ls rather than Hikari’s. Reach extends to 1.3 million corporate customers, or 20-30% of all Japanese corporates, and 4 million individuals; group churn runs under 2%. A low fixed-cost base allows Hikari to undercut incumbents and consolidate distressed peers, while a 200% five-year return hurdle on recurring revenue divided by CAC imposes discipline across channels. Outcomes include 30% share in office water, 80% in mobile device insurance, and the #2 position in independent electricity.

The culture — frugality, meritocracy, decentralized capital allocation, and mandatory after-tax share ownership — underpins these advantages. President Wada, who joined out of university, has purchased roughly $100 million of stock personally. Between 2017 and recent years, management borrowed about $6 billion of long-dated Japanese debt near zero rates and deployed it into 500-600 undervalued Japanese equities plus an $800 million Berkshire Class A position (Hikari is the 10th-largest Class A holder). Portfolio cost of ~830 billion yen sits on a $4 billion gain, with an eight-year IRR of 18% versus 11% for TOPIX.

The shares recently traded at roughly 1.5x book — the low end of the range since 2022 despite 17% book CAGR — implying a core EV near 900 billion yen, or 8x reported operating profit and 5x on owner earnings. Management guides to 10% recurring operating-profit CAGR plus another 5% from M&A. On conservative assumptions — 10% core growth, a steady-state 10x terminal multiple, and a 50% portfolio uplift over five years — Omar estimates roughly 100,000 yen per share, implying 150% upside or a ~20% CAGR.

Disclaimer

Asian Investing Summit 2026 was held from April 14-17, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Patrick Rial of TriVista Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Kitazato Corporation (Japan: 368A) at Asian Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

Kitazato is Japan’s leading provider of consumables for in vitro fertilization (IVF), generating over 60% of sales internationally and posting a 56% operating margin — the sixth-highest among non-financial Japanese listings. Patrick estimates the global fertility treatment market at roughly $49 billion, with 5-8% expected growth driven by later marriage, declining male sperm counts, rising egg-freezing adoption, expanding insurance coverage, and ongoing technological improvement. Kitazato’s sales have compounded at an 8.9% CAGR over the last decade.

The company’s moat stems from the vitrification revolution it pioneered with Japan’s Kato Ladies Clinic around 2000. Vitrification flash-freezes eggs in a glass-like state using liquid nitrogen, eliminating the ice-crystal damage of slow freezing and enabling near-100% thaw survival. Industry adoption from 2005 made it the global standard of care. Roughly 65% of Kitazato’s sales tie to vitrification, where it holds 60% share in Japan, 70% in Europe, 80% in China, and 85% in India. Across Japanese product categories, share ranges from 50% to 96%, including a near-monopoly in Cryotop storage devices.

Patrick views founder Futoshi Inoue, 55, as an exceptional operator aligned with shareholders. Inoue owns 58.9% of the company, describes shareholders as co-managers, and is unhappy with post-IPO share performance. FY results due in May should beat a -7.1% operating profit guide (Patrick models +4.5%); a dividend payout lift from the current 40% toward 50-70% is plausible given ¥12 billion of net cash and minimal capex; a potential cryobank business could open a new profit pool; and US growth should accelerate under new distribution partner DeviMed. Principal risks include competition, technological disruption, margin compression, and a possible further stake sale by Inoue.

The shares recently traded at 6.9x EV/EBIT, 13.3x P/E, 2.77x P/B, and a 3.0% dividend yield, with a ¥53 billion market cap. Public peers Cooper Companies and Vitrolife trade at 17.7-23.5x EV/EBIT and 24-38x P/E despite lower margins, while recent industry M&A has taken place at 5x+ sales, implying 18x+ EBITDA. Patrick’s DCF, assuming 4-8% sales growth and 57-59% operating margins, yields a ¥1,387-¥2,238 fair value range, or 3-66% upside.

Disclaimer

Asian Investing Summit 2026 was held from April 14-17, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Michael Fritzell of Asian Century Stocks presented his in-depth investment thesis on freee (Japan: 4478) at Asian Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

freee is a Japanese cloud-native software platform that functions as a back-office operating system for small and medium-sized enterprises, founded in 2013 by ex-Google executive Daisuke Sasaki and CTO Ryu Yokoji. Often described as the Japanese analogue of Australia’s Xero, freee began as an accounting tool and has expanded into HR, payroll, tax filing, expense reimbursement, electronic signatures, invoicing, sales management, and a third-party app store with integrations including Rakuten, Amazon, and Line. The platform serves roughly 500,000 businesses and, together with Money Forward, holds about 15% of the Japanese accounting software market, with legacy desktop incumbents such as Yayoi lagging behind. Michael views freee as the true disruptor because its automated bank and credit card linkages generate entries with minimal manual input, positioning it to take share as Japanese SMEs digitalize from a base of Excel and paper.

The core of Michael’s thesis is that the market has wrongly extrapolated generative-AI commoditization risk onto enterprise SaaS. Japanese software stocks are down sharply, and freee itself has fallen roughly 30% YTD and about 50% from its 2025 peak, with some Japanese portfolio managers reportedly barred from touching the sector. Michael argues that enterprise systems of record are structurally different from point solutions: AI remains probabilistic and unsuitable for mission-critical accounting work, distribution and trust matter more than raw code, and freee sits on proprietary transactional data from its half-million customers with more than 1,000 banking and financial integrations that are not replicable by vibe-coded alternatives. Monthly overall churn has declined to 1.1% in 2025 (corporate churn 0.5%, lower than Money Forward’s), and learning costs, limited data migration, and a growing app store bolster the moat.

The growth algorithm has compounded revenues at a 39% CAGR since 2019, driven by a 25% CAGR in paying customers (from 160,000 to about 607,000) and a 9% CAGR in ARPU (to roughly JPY 56,700). With Japanese cloud accounting penetration at only ~25-30%, Michael sees room for penetration to triple toward Australian and US levels, supporting sustained 30% top-line growth. Management has guided to 26% revenue growth in the current fiscal year and has historically beaten its targets, recently posting close to 30%. Share-count dilution is near zero, unlike typical US SaaS peers, so organic growth accrues cleanly to minorities.

Michael believes long-term operating margins can exceed 30% and potentially reach 40%, consistent with Xero at ~55% EBITDA margins in Australia/New Zealand, Fortnox at ~50% EBIT margins in Sweden, and Intuit’s SME segment at ~50%. ARPU of roughly $30-40 per month is low for the value delivered, and modest pricing uplift would convert the existing cost base into substantial operating leverage, analogous to Netflix’s pricing journey a decade ago. Near-term catalysts include Money Forward’s September 2025 price hike (driving prospects to freee), freee’s December 2025 launch of consolidation accounting and manual double-entry bookkeeping (closing the feature gap), and accelerated AI product rollouts led by newly appointed Chief AI Officer Ryu Yokoji, including automated receipt capture, a ChatGPT tax guidance mini-app, an AI website builder, and a business-succession matching tool. Daisuke Sasaki, founder-CEO, is described as serious, non-promotional, and fully focused on building the business.

The shares recently traded at 2.3x EV/Sales, roughly half the multiple of industry peers and meaningfully below Money Forward. freee is around GAAP breakeven with capitalized software costs, and Japanese retail investors appear to discount the delayed profitability inherent in the SaaS model. On Michael’s numbers, EV/Sales compresses to 2.0x in FY2027, then 1.7x, 1.4x, and 1.2x, with P/E falling below 10x by 2030 as margins scale into management’s long-term 30% operating margin guidance. Using conservative margin and exit-multiple assumptions, Michael arrives at an IRR of about 25%, with no dividend — the return is entirely a function of growth continuing from the guided 26% toward the high teens over several years. Some sell-side targets (Macquarie among them) sit at roughly double the recent share price, consistent with Michael’s view that the current multiple reflects near-term AI disruption fears rather than the underlying economics of a dominant, compounding Japanese SME platform.

Disclaimer

Asian Investing Summit 2026 was held from April 14-17, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Jean Pierre Verster of Protea Capital Management presented his investment thesis on TBC Bank Group (UK: TBCG) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

TBC Bank Group is a holding company operating two distinct banking entities in the Caucasus and Central Asia. TBC Bank Georgia, a universal bank, generates approximately 90% of group profits and holds a 40% market share in a stable duopolistic market. The remaining 10% of profits stem from TBC Uzbekistan, a high-growth digital venture mirroring the “super-app” strategy of fintech players like Kaspi. While the Georgian operation provides a foundation of stability, the expansion into Uzbekistan offers exposure to a market with ten times the population of Georgia and low banking penetration.

The Georgian operation anchors the thesis with consistent returns, having compounded earnings while maintaining long-term ROEs above 20%. Established in 1992, the bank has transitioned from a traditional physical network to a strong digital offering. Despite being situated in a region with perceived geopolitical friction—bordering Russia and occupied territories—the currency has remained relatively flat against the British Pound over the last decade, and the economy has benefited from recent migration inflows. The high level of dollarization in the Georgian economy is being actively managed through central bank “larization” initiatives to decrease foreign exchange risk.

Jean Pierre highlights Uzbekistan as the primary growth engine, leveraging a population of nearly 40 million to deploy a fintech-enabled strategy. Through acquisitions of payment provider Payme and e-classifieds platform OLX, TBC is building an ecosystem to capture a young, digitally savvy demographic. While this segment has delivered rapid loan growth, recent regulatory interventions aimed at curbing unsecured lending and a tick-up in NPLs suggest a near-term moderation in expansion rates. Consequently, the bank is pivoting toward secured and SME lending to de-risk the Uzbek book over the coming years.

Governance and capital allocation are anchored by a management team led by a CEO who has served since 1995. The group maintains a dividend payout ratio between 35% and 40%, supplementing shareholder returns with share buybacks when excess capital is available. Although the founder’s recent legal issues and subsequent pardon present a headline risk, the operational leadership has continued to deliver efficiency improvements, driving the cost-to-income ratio down to approximately 38%.

Regarding valuation, Jean Pierre argues the market misprices the gap between the company’s fundamental performance and its share price. The stock recently traded at a P/E of roughly 6x and a trailing tangible P/B of 1.3x, despite consistent ROEs exceeding 20% and healthy capital adequacy. Jean Pierre suggests a fair multiple would be closer to 2x tangible book value. A narrowing of this valuation gap, combined with earnings growth and a ~6% dividend yield, could support a 25% CAGR, potentially doubling the share price to around £80 by 2029.

Disclaimer

Best Ideas 2026 was held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Monsoon Pabrai of Drew Investments presented her in-depth investment thesis on Gimat (Turkey: GMTAS) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Gimat Gross (GMTAS) is an Ankara-based wholesaler-retailer operating a hybrid business model that combines a wholesale market, a modern consumer hypermarket, and a real estate-anchored ecosystem. Born from a cooperative of over 1,000 wholesalers in the early 1990s, Gimat functions similarly to a “Turkish Costco,” selling in bulk with low margins while owning its real estate assets. This structure provides a natural hedge against Turkey’s high inflation environment, protecting the company from rent escalation and supply chain disruptions. The company currently operates two locations, with the flagship store generating approximately $1,200 in sales per square foot and gross margins exceeding 20%. The shareholder base remains unique, with 99% free float and thousands of small holders, largely descendants of the original cooperative members, ensuring a culture focused on continuity and working capital efficiency rather than aggressive corporate expansion.

The company’s expansion strategy is conservative and disciplined, aiming to open one new store roughly every two years. Each unit requires approximately 1 billion lira to build and reaches maturity within 18 to 24 months. The second location, opened recently, reached profitability faster than anticipated. Long-term goals include consolidating presence in Ankara before expanding to other major Turkish provinces and potentially Germany, leveraging the large Turkish diaspora. While the company does not currently charge a membership fee—a key differentiator from the Costco model—management is exploring options such as paid parking passes to introduce a membership-like revenue stream. The focus remains on sustainable growth that does not compromise their thin net margins, which historically sit near 1-2% but are bolstered by asset appreciation and high inventory turnover.

Management is led by General Manager Recai Kesimal, who holds proxies for over 25% of the wholesaler base. Kesimal’s approach is characterized by a “service” mindset, prioritizing the stability and longevity of the enterprise over short-term shareholder value creation. This alignment ensures operational discipline and aversion to excessive leverage or risky scaling. While the lack of large institutional investors and the fragmented ownership structure might typically raise governance concerns, the deep communal ties and the management’s track record of capital preservation mitigate these risks. The leadership is actively studying Costco’s operational and cultural efficiencies to further optimize their low-cost model.

Gimat recently traded at a market capitalization of approximately $156 million, which Monsoon argues is slightly below its estimated intrinsic value of $175 million. This intrinsic value calculation aggregates the earnings power of the two existing stores—generating roughly $11 million in PAT, valued at a conservative 10x multiple—and the real estate value of the “Gimat Arena” development. The latter includes projected office sales of $50 million and retained commercial property yielding $1 million in annual rent, capitalized at 6.5%. Despite trailing P/E ratios appearing inflated due to Turkish inflation accounting, the underlying asset base and cash flow generation present a “heads I win, tails I don’t lose too much” scenario, offering a free option on future growth for patient capital.

Disclaimer

Best Ideas 2026 was held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Steve Gorelik of Firebird Management presented his in-depth investment thesis on Akamai Technologies (US: AKAM) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Akamai is a “growth at a reasonable price” opportunity navigating a pivotal business transformation. The core thesis rests on the company’s evolution from a legacy Content Delivery Network (CDN) provider into a diversified enterprise security and cloud compute platform. While the traditional delivery business—which historically dominated revenues—has faced secular headwinds from customer DIY efforts and competition, Akamai has successfully reinvested cash flows into higher-growth segments. The Security and Compute divisions now generate approximately two-thirds of total revenue and are growing at double-digit rates, effectively offsetting the decline in the legacy delivery segment. This shift marks a critical inflection point where overall revenue growth is expected to re-accelerate from mid-single digits to high single or double digits.

Akamai’s competitive advantage leverages its massive distributed edge network, comprising over 4,000 locations and relationships with 1,000+ ISPs globally. This infrastructure provides a unique moat for its Security business, which has grown to over $2 billion in revenue through acquisitions and cross-selling to an existing base of large enterprise clients. Furthermore, the company’s entry into the Compute market, catalyzed by the acquisition of Linode, capitalizes on the need for distributed, low-latency processing. This is particularly relevant for emerging workloads such as AI inference, where Akamai’s edge capabilities offer distinct performance and cost benefits compared to centralized hyperscalers. The company’s deep relationships with CTOs and CIOs facilitate the cross-selling of these new services to a sticky enterprise customer base.

From a capital allocation perspective, management has demonstrated discipline by balancing M&A with shareholder returns. Since 2014, Akamai has generated $6.6 billion in FCF, deploying $3.5 billion toward strategic acquisitions to build out its security and compute capabilities, while returning $5 billion to shareholders via buybacks. This has reduced the share count by 16% over the last decade, despite regular equity-based compensation. Consequently, FCF per share has compounded at 9% annually. The transition to higher-margin Security and Compute segments is expected to further support profitability, with these divisions boasting EBITDA margins comparable to or higher than the legacy business.

Valuation remains compelling relative to peers and historical averages. The shares recently traded at a free cash flow yield of approximately 5.2%, representing a discount to the company’s historical trading range. Steve noted that pure-play competitors in the security and edge compute spaces typically command significantly higher multiples. As the revenue mix continues to shift toward these faster-growing segments, Akamai is positioned for potential multiple expansion. With FCF expected to grow by 25% over the next three years—and potentially faster on a per-share basis due to buybacks—the current valuation offers an attractive entry point for a business with accelerating fundamentals.

Disclaimer

Best Ideas 2026 was held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Ben Beneche of Tourbillon Partners presented his in-depth investment thesis on Greggs plc (UK: GRG) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Ben outlines the thesis for Greggs, a UK-based food-to-go retailer with a vertically integrated business model comprising manufacturing, logistics, and a network of over 2,650 stores. Unlike peers, Greggs owns its supply chain and manages approximately 78% of its outlets directly, a structure that drives a distinct margin profile and a lower cost-to-serve. This vertical integration underpins a symbiotic loop where scale efficiencies allow for lower prices, reinforcing its position as the UK’s leading brand for value. Ben notes that despite a fragmented market growing largely in line with GDP, Greggs has consistently gained share from pubs and service-led restaurants through store expansion and a superior value proposition.

The company recently faced a convergence of headwinds, including UK stagflation, cost inflation in food and wages, and a period of elevated capital expenditures focused on supply chain capacity. Consequently, EBIT margins compressed from a peak of over 12% in 2021 to consensus estimates of 8.7% for FY25. However, Ben argues the business is approaching an inflection point as the heavy investment phase in logistics and manufacturing concludes. With input costs such as pork and energy moderating, and the supply chain investments laying the foundation for future capacity without proportional cost increases, margins are poised to revert toward historical levels.

Growth optionality remains robust through multiple channels. Management targets an expansion to 3,500 stores, a goal Ben supports via regional density analysis and strong underlying ROIC, which remains approximately 25% for new cohorts. Beyond physical footprint expansion, the B2B segment—comprising franchise fees and wholesale partnerships with retailers like Tesco—offers a high-margin growth avenue, currently generating mid-20s EBIT margins. Additionally, the evening trade, representing just over 9% of company-managed sales, provides high contribution margin optionality as the company leverages existing fixed costs to capture incremental volume after 4 PM.

As the capital intensity of the supply chain buildout subsides, FCF generation is expected to accelerate, potentially reaching £200 million by FY27. This shift from cash consumption to generation should allow the conservatively financed company—which holds minimal term debt—to enhance shareholder returns. While Greggs has historically prioritized dividends and employee profit sharing, Ben suggests the improving FCF profile creates capacity for share buybacks, particularly given the disconnect between the company’s intrinsic value and its current market price.

The shares recently traded at approximately 11-12x trailing earnings with a dividend yield approaching 5%, marking the lowest valuation multiple seen since 2014. Ben calculates an owner earnings yield of 8.5% for FY26, suggesting a mid-teens IRR is achievable through earnings growth and dividends alone, without relying on a rerating. With the stock down roughly 50% from its 2022 highs due to temporary macro and investment cycle pressures, the current price offers a compelling entry point for a durable franchise with pricing power and a clear path to margin recovery.

Disclaimer

Best Ideas 2026 was held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Patrick Brennan of Brennan Asset Management presented his investment thesis on Metro Bank (UK: MTRO) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Metro Bank is a UK-based challenger bank that has transitioned from a high-growth model to a distressed turnaround situation following a 2019 capital crisis and a subsequent recapitalization in late 2023 led by Spaldy Investments. Patrick argues that the bank possesses a durable “moat” in its deposit franchise, which features a cost of deposits significantly lower than peers at roughly 95 basis points and a high proportion of non-interest-bearing accounts. Following a 40% headcount reduction and aggressive cost-cutting measures implemented by CEO Dan Frumkin, the bank is pivoting its asset strategy to leverage this funding advantage. The turnaround is anchored by a majority shareholder with a track record in distressed financial investments and a management team heavily incentivized by a compensation plan that targets a share price roughly 3.5x higher than recent levels.

The investment thesis rests on three primary earnings drivers: asset rotation, treasury repricing, and regulatory capital relief. Patrick highlights the bank’s shift from low-yield residential mortgages to higher-margin commercial loans and specialist mortgages, targeting origination spreads of 350 basis points over base rates. Early results from H1 2025 indicate strong momentum with doubled corporate lending volumes. Simultaneously, the bank’s legacy portfolio of low-yielding treasury securities is maturing; rolling these assets into current market rates is projected to provide a cumulative 600 basis point uplift to ROE. This mechanical repricing alone is expected to drive returns on tangible equity from mid-single digits to low teens over the medium term.

A critical, hard catalyst for the thesis is Metro Bank’s exit from the MREL (Minimum Requirement for Own Funds and Eligible Liabilities) regime, effective January 1, 2026. This regulatory shift, resulting from an increase in the asset threshold for compliance, allows the bank to redeem £525 million of expensive debt carrying a 12% coupon. Patrick estimates this redemption will eliminate roughly £60 million in annual interest expense, contributing approximately 4% to the ROE uplift without requiring any new equity issuance. The market has largely ignored this event due to sparse sell-side coverage and broader negative sentiment toward UK financials.

While acknowledging macro risks related to the UK economy’s stagnation and potential housing market softness, Patrick suggests the valuation offers a substantial margin of safety. The bank’s “muddle along” scenario, which does not rely on aggressive economic recovery, still supports a path to a mid-to-high teen ROE. Furthermore, the strategic value of the deposit franchise makes Metro a logical acquisition target, providing downside protection. The alignment with Spaldy Investments, which owns over 50% of the bank, suggests a focus on eventual monetization or a sale, potentially to a private equity firm or a fintech looking to acquire a banking license and deposit base.

Metro Bank shares recently traded at approximately £1.25, representing roughly 0.6x to 0.75x tangible book value (TBV). Patrick believes this valuation is disconnected from the bank’s earnings power, projecting that the combination of treasury repricing, asset rotation, and the MREL cost savings could drive EPS to £0.40 by 2028. At a conservative multiple or through share buybacks executed at these depressed levels, the stock has the potential to triple. The disconnect between the current distressed multiple and the credible path to a 20% ROE presents a unique asymmetric opportunity in a market where the hard catalysts are already confirmed but not yet priced in.

Disclaimer

Best Ideas 2026 was held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Javier López Bernardo of BrightGate Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Private Bancorp of America (US: PBAM) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

PBAM is the holding company for CalPrivate Bank, a La Jolla-based institution focused on serving high-net-worth individuals, professionals, and closely held businesses in coastal Southern California. Javier outlines a thesis predicated on the structural advantages of well-run Californian banks, which benefit from the region’s massive economy and a vibrant ecosystem of small and medium-sized enterprises often underserved by larger competitors. With approximately $2.6bn in assets and $2.3bn in deposits across just seven branches, PBAM exhibits exceptional branch productivity. Deposits per office recently stood at $366m, substantially higher than the national average of $221m, providing a dense revenue base relative to fixed costs.

Since Rick Sowers joined the leadership team in 2018—later becoming CEO in 2020—the bank has demonstrated robust operational leverage and disciplined credit underwriting. The efficiency ratio improved from 74% in 2018 to below 50% recently, driven by deposit growth and cost control. Simultaneously, the loan portfolio has maintained strong credit metrics; approximately 80% of loans are secured by real estate with a conservative weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 53%. Net charge-offs have been negligible in recent years, reinforcing the stability of the asset base. These factors have driven top-decile profitability, with recent ROA and ROE figures reaching approximately 1.8% and 18%, respectively, outperforming the long-term industry average ROA of 1.2%.

Javier characterizes PBAM as a GARP opportunity with distinct short-to-medium-term catalysts. The stock currently trades over the counter (OTC) with limited liquidity and virtually no sell-side coverage. Management has indicated an interest in uplisting to a major exchange like the Nasdaq, potentially in the 2026-2027 timeframe. Moving up the “Value-Add Bank Lifecycle Ladder” through uplisting would likely enhance liquidity, trigger index inclusion (such as the Russell 2000), and expand the multiple. Even barring an immediate uplisting, the bank possesses an ample runway for organic growth, with internal targets to double the asset base over the next three to five years without diluting shareholders.

In terms of valuation, shares recently traded at approximately 1.3x P/BV. Javier posits this valuation is disconnected from the bank’s fundamental quality, specifically its ability to sustain ROAs of 1.5% and ROEs of 15% on 10x leverage. Employing a residual income framework with a 50% reinvestment rate—implying a sustainable growth rate of 7%—the current entry price supports prospective IRRs in the mid-teens (12-14%). The investment offers an asymmetric risk profile where downside is protected by tangible book value and conservative lending, while upside is driven by continued compounding and potential valuation rerating upon uplisting.

Disclaimer

Best Ideas 2026 was held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Jeffrey Stacey of Stacey Muirhead Capital Management presented his investment thesis on Pluxee (France: PLX) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Pluxee is a leader in employee benefits and engagement, currently holding the number-two market share position worldwide. Spun off from Sodexo in early 2024, the company operates across 28 countries with a 45-year history. Jeff highlights a business model driven by three revenue streams: merchant fees, client fees, and float revenue generated from interest income on funds held in trust. The company facilitates over 4.8 million daily transactions for 500,000 client companies and 37 million employees, supported by a vast network of 1.7 million merchants. Jeff views the increasing corporate focus on employee retention and the “war for talent” as a structural tailwind for Pluxee’s engagement and benefit programs.

The business exhibits outstanding economics characterized by high ROE of 47.8% and consistent profitability. Jeff notes that the customer base is loyal and sticky, maintaining retention rates at or above 100% when accounting for organic growth within existing programs. While the company faces regulatory challenges, specifically regarding the Workers’ Food Program (PAT) in Brazil which has impacted merchant fees and float timelines, Jeff contends that Pluxee’s broad geographic diversity mitigates this exposure. The company remains asset-light and technology-driven, with all transactions occurring digitally via mobile devices or wearable technology, ensuring scalability as it expands its platform.

Management alignment is a core component of the thesis, as the Bellon family maintains a 46.2% ownership stake and has committed to retaining these shares post-spinoff. Jeff emphasizes this “skin in the game” as a primary driver for disciplined capital allocation. Under the leadership of CEO Aurélien, who has been in the role since 2017, Pluxee has demonstrated a balanced approach to capital deployment through tuck-in acquisitions, such as Cobee in Spain and Skipper in Belgium. Furthermore, management recently announced a $100 million share buyback program and a 9% YOY dividend increase, signaling a commitment to returning capital when the market price deviates from intrinsic value.

Regarding valuation, the shares recently traded at €13.41, representing a market capitalization of approximately €1.95 billion. Pluxee maintains a strong financial position with €1.2 billion in net cash, or €7.96 per share. When adjusting for this cash, the enterprise is valued at €5.44 per share. Based on fiscal 2025 EPS of €1.35, the stock recently traded at an ex-cash P/E of 4.0x. Additionally, Pluxee generated €1.79 per share in FCF, resulting in a 32.9% FCF yield at the adjusted price. Jeff suggests that these multiples provide a wide margin of safety and reflect an attractive entry point despite prevailing regulatory concerns.

Disclaimer

Best Ideas 2026 was held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Chris Waller of Plural Investing presented his investment thesis on GCI Liberty (US: GLIBK) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

GCI Liberty is a classic “hidden gem” spin-off opportunity, offering investors the chance to partner with John Malone in his next serial acquisition vehicle at a modest entry price. The company’s core asset is Alaska’s dominant telecommunications provider, a utility-like business that generates persistent FCF. Roughly 70% of revenues are derived from broadband services, primarily delivered to mission-critical institutions like hospitals and schools and heavily subsidized by the Universal Service Fund (USF). Due to Alaska’s harsh geography and low population density, GCI enjoys a natural monopoly with high barriers to entry, evidenced by its 90% share of government funding in the region.

While headline concerns regarding satellite competition exist, Chris argues the risk from Starlink is manageable and often overstated. Detailed primary research indicates zero churn among Alaska’s 216 hospitals, which require the reliability, latency, and support of GCI’s fiber network—qualities current satellite offerings lack. Churn in the school segment is limited to remote districts without fiber access, a gap GCI is closing through funded infrastructure projects like the AIRRAQ fiber build. Consequently, the core cash flows remain protected, allowing the company to harvest cash from its capital-intensive legacy operations to fund higher-return opportunities elsewhere.

The primary upside driver is the transformation of the company into an “advantaged acquirer” leveraging three distinct strengths: tax efficiency, deal sourcing, and shareholder alignment. The spin-off structure created a ~$1bn tax basis step-up, which, combined with favorable depreciation rules under the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” effectively eliminates cash taxes for the next decade. Furthermore, the company benefits from the expertise of the Liberty Media management team to source deals, a rarity for a small-cap issuer. John Malone’s alignment is robust; holding 7% of the equity and over half the voting power, he has actively purchased shares and backstopped a $300m rights offering to bolster liquidity for M&A.

Management aims to replicate the Liberty Media playbook by leveraging the balance sheet to acquire cash-generative communications assets. Currently under-levered with ~$630m in net debt, the company targets a net debt/EBITDA ratio of 3.0x to 3.5x. Chris estimates this capacity, combined with internal cash generation, provides approximately $2bn in buying power. By acquiring businesses at roughly 5x EBITDA using a mix of debt and tax-shielded cash flows, the company can drive substantial accretion. The goal is to maximize FCF per share, potentially delivering 100-200% equity upside over a three-year horizon as the market re-rates the stock from a telecom multiple to that of a compounder.

The shares recently traded at $37, implying a $1.4bn market cap and a valuation of approximately 10x EV/FCF. This represents a discount to large-cap peers like Comcast and Charter, despite GCI possessing superior tax attributes and lower leverage. Chris posits that even without M&A, the downside is protected by the steady yield of the Alaska business, which trades at roughly 9x FCF on a standalone basis three years out. However, if management executes on the acquisition strategy, the stock could re-rate to 15x FCF or higher. The asymmetry is favorable: investors pay a value multiple for a protected cash cow with an embedded call option on a high-return capital allocation strategy led by a premier operator.

Disclaimer

Best Ideas 2026 was held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

James Hannack of Punch & Associates Investment Management presented his investment thesis on Cavco Industries (US: CVCO) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Cavco is a leading producer of manufactured and modular homes in North America, operating through 33 manufacturing plants and 99 company-owned retail stores. James notes that the industry has undergone substantial consolidation since the Great Recession, evolving from a fragmented landscape into a disciplined oligopoly where the top three players control 85% of the market. This rationalized structure has enabled stable pricing and margins despite volume fluctuations. James highlights that CVCO is particularly well-positioned to consolidate the remaining 15% of the market, as its primary competitor, Clayton, is limited by its existing 50% market share and another peer is undergoing a management transition.

The investment thesis centers on a favorable post-pandemic normalization and the acute shortage of affordable housing. While demand outstripped supply by 50% in FY 2022, constraints have eased, allowing for improved utilization. Manufactured housing represents a viable solution to the national shortage of 3.5 million homes, with HUD-Code units offering an ASP of approximately $85,000—a fraction of the cost of traditional site-built homes. James expects demand to be further supported by real wage growth among lower-end consumers and a stabilization of orders from the REIT and community channels.

Improving regulatory conditions and financing access provide additional tailwinds for the business. James points to recent legislative wins in Texas and New York that mandate more inclusive zoning for HUD-Code homes, effectively lowering barriers to entry in previously restricted municipalities. On the federal level, the industry is gaining visibility in Congress, and there is an ongoing push for GSE participation in the chattel loan market. James believes that involving GSEs would lower interest rates for the roughly one-third of CVCO customers who utilize personal property loans, thereby improving overall housing accessibility.

James identifies a path for the company to double its housing EBIT over the next four years by increasing annual shipments from 20,000 to 30,000 units. This growth is expected to come from restoring plant utilization to 85%, integrating the American Homestar acquisition, and pursuing further organic and inorganic capacity investments. Under the leadership of Bill, who joined the board in 2008 and became CEO in 2019, the company has maintained a fortress balance sheet and a disciplined capital allocation strategy. This approach includes programmatic share repurchases that have reduced the share count by 14% and strategic M&A that adds capacity without disrupting industry supply.

The shares recently traded at a P/E of 28x, justified by CVCO’s high-quality operations and improving ROIC. While the valuation is not optically cheap compared to smaller, less-scaled peers, James sees ~120% upside over a four-year horizon. This assumes EPS reaches $54 through a combination of 400bps in OPM expansion and high incremental margins. The downside is estimated at $280 per share, based on a trough multiple of 2.0x book value, resulting in a favorable 2:1 up-down ratio.

Disclaimer

Best Ideas 2026 was held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Amit Wadhwaney of Moerus Capital Management presented his investment thesis on Natura Cosméticos (Brazil: NATU3) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Natura is a Brazilian beauty and personal care company that dominates its home market, the fifth-largest globally, through a direct-selling model that emphasizes natural ingredients and sustainable sourcing. The company historically generated strong returns by focusing on Latin America, where it commands leading market share and leverages a network of 3.2 million consultants. However, a series of debt-funded acquisitions between 2013 and 2019 — Aesop, The Body Shop, and Avon — strained the balance sheet and diverted management attention from the core business. These missteps, compounded by macroeconomic challenges in key markets like Brazil and Argentina and the loss of Russian revenue, drove the stock to multi-year lows.

Amit argues that the current valuation obscures the resilience and profitability of the legacy Natura brand. Management has moved aggressively to repair the balance sheet by divesting Aesop and The Body Shop, effectively eliminating net debt. The problematic Avon acquisition is being restructured, with the international non-LatAm operations separated and the Latin American integration proceeding, albeit with short-term integration costs. The core Natura business in Brazil continues to perform well, with underlying margins around 19.5%, suggesting that once the “noise” of restructuring and write-downs subsides, the company’s earnings power will become visible again.

The thesis relies on a return to the company’s “circle of competence”—direct selling in Latin America—under new leadership and committed controlling shareholders. While the integration of Avon in Latin America presents execution risks, early signs of stabilization appeared in 2024 EBITDA results. The expectation is that as restructuring costs abate and macroeconomic headwinds in Brazil and Argentina potentially ease, the company will resume its historical trajectory of product innovation and profitability. The severe stock price decline reflects a “broken growth” narrative, but the underlying asset remains a dominant regional player with strong brand equity and a now-repaired balance sheet.

Regarding valuation, the shares recently traded at approximately 5.5x consensus 2025 EBITDA, a steep discount compared to global peers averaging around 18.8x and emerging market peers like AmorePacific at 10.5x. Even adjusting for the potential jettisoning of Avon, the core Natura business is valued at roughly 6.2x estimated normalized EBITDA. This valuation implies little to no credit for the turnaround or the inherent quality of the Natura franchise, offering a margin of safety for investors willing to look past near-term earnings volatility.

Disclaimer

Best Ideas 2026 was held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Kyle Mowery of GrizzlyRock Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on AMN Healthcare Services (US: AMN) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

AMN is the largest diversified healthcare staffing provider in the U.S., offering a comprehensive suite of workforce solutions that includes nurse and allied staffing, physician placement, and technology-driven workforce management. The company operates in a cyclical industry that is currently emerging from a post-COVID trough, a period characterized by compressed bill-pay spreads as healthcare systems shifted toward permanent labor to rationalize costs. Recent data indicates an inflection point; demand for travel nurses has rebounded approximately 50% from mid-2025 lows, and bill rates have stabilized with early signs of improvement. AMN’s scale, combined with its integrated technology platform, positions it advantageously against smaller competitors and “tech-native” entrants that have struggled with profitability and fulfillment during the downturn.

Long-term demand is supported by robust secular tailwinds, specifically an aging demographic driving higher healthcare utilization against a backdrop of persistent shortages in clinical labor. AMN has strategically diversified its revenue mix, reducing reliance on traditional staffing by expanding into high-margin technology and workforce solutions which enhance client retention. While the upcoming renewal of the Kaiser contract—historically representing a notable portion of revenue—creates a perceived overhang, the depth of the relationship suggests a high probability of renewal. Furthermore, a growing pipeline of vendor management system (VMS) and managed service provider (MSP) opportunities in late 2026 offers additional avenues for margin expansion and revenue growth largely ignored by current street estimates.

Financially, AMN remains highly cash-generative throughout the cycle, averaging robust FCF even prior to its recent expansion into higher-margin segments. Although headline leverage appeared elevated at 3.9x LTM in late 2025 due to cyclically depressed earnings, the company has successfully termed out debt at attractive fixed rates. Management expects leverage to naturally deleverage to below 3.0x over the next four to six quarters as EBITDA recovers. This strong cash conversion profile provides flexibility for capital allocation, including potential share repurchases or accretive M&A in a fragmented market where private valuations are resetting.

Shares recently traded at approximately $16, implying a valuation of roughly 6.9x estimated 2026 EBITDA and a normalized FCF yield to equity approaching 25%. This valuation reflects a market consensus that likely underestimates the pace of the recovery in bill-pay spreads and volume demand. As the cycle turns and margins normalize toward historical averages, the disconnect between the current share price and the company’s intrinsic earnings power presents a compelling asymmetry, with potential for material upside as operating leverage takes hold and sentiment realigns with business fundamentals.

Disclaimer

Best Ideas 2026 was held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Jeff Auxier of Auxier Asset Management discussed his long-term investment approach and shared his thoughts on intelligent investing in a speculative market environment at Best Ideas 2026.

Overview:

Jeff shares key insights drawn from a career spanning over four decades, starting with a cold call to Warren Buffett in 1982. Jeff offers a sobering yet constructive analysis of the current financial landscape, which he argues is characterized by historic levels of speculation, record margin debt, and a dangerous disconnect between price and value in “no-revenue” companies.

Jeff details his philosophy of “tenacious research,” focused on uncovering the “operating reality” of a business rather than following market sentiment. He explains his strategy of hunting for the “double play” — buying high-quality, cash-generating businesses at distressed multiples when they face temporary, fixable problems. The discussion moves beyond general philosophy into specific actionable analysis, comparing the risks of holding high-multiple compounders like Costco in the current environment against the opportunities available in beaten-down sectors such as medical devices and payment processors.

Furthermore, Jeff provides a nuanced take on the consumer staples sector, analyzing how the rise of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs and shifting alcohol consumption habits are disrupting traditional defensive moats. He also discusses the macro risks posed by Chinese deflationary exports and the potential unwinding of private equity valuations. Ultimately, this conversation serves as a guide on how to maintain discipline and protect capital during periods of market exuberance while preparing for the opportunities that inevitably arise when leverage unwinds.

Highlights:

Fiserv Thesis: Double-digit FCF yield, management change, fixable problems, and the potential for a “double, triple play”.

Navigating Speculative Bubbles: Why current margin debt levels and leveraged ETFs create a fragile market structure similar to past historic peaks.

The “Double Play” Strategy: How to identify companies with fixable problems to capture returns through both earnings recovery and multiple expansion.

Valuation Discipline: Why Auxier is trimming positions in high-quality compounders like Costco and avoiding “torpedoes”—stocks with high expectations and high valuations.

Sector Opportunities: An analysis of value pockets in healthcare (Zimmer, Becton Dickinson) and payments (Fiserv) versus the risks in footwear (Nike).

The GLP-1 Disruption: How weight-loss drugs and changing social habits are fundamentally altering the thesis for food, beverage, and alcohol stocks.

Global Macro Risks: The impact of China’s deflationary export pressure on global commodities and chemicals.

The Farmer’s Mindset: Lessons on humility, work ethic, and patience drawn from owning and operating a working farm.

Thesis summary:

Fiserv (US: FISV) is a prominent provider of back-office processing and financial services technology, distinguished by a nearly four-decade track record of double-digit earnings growth. Historically, the company has commanded a premium valuation due to its consistency, with a P/E ratio averaging over 30x during the last decade and trading as high as 91x earnings in 2000. The company strengthened its market position through the acquisition of First Data, integrating merchant services with its core banking infrastructure capabilities. Jeff identifies this as a high-quality business model that has recently fallen out of favor due to short-term operational headwinds in a speculative market environment that currently penalizes earnings misses severely.

The core opportunity arises from a recent growth deceleration where the company missed double-digit targets, delivering approximately 4% growth instead. This deviation from historical performance caused the stock to decline roughly 40%. Jeff views this sell-off as a classic overreaction, noting that the market is currently disregarding quality in favor of speculative momentum. The thesis is predicated on the idea that the underlying issues causing the growth slowdown are fixable rather than structural. The company possesses a robust balance sheet and a business model that generates substantial cash flow, characteristics that historically protect capital during market downturns.

A key driver for the potential turnaround is the appointment of a new management team, which Jeff believes is capable of correcting the operational stumbles. The strategy involves purchasing the equity when the company faces “fixable problems,” allowing for a “double, triple play” scenario driven by both earnings recovery and multiple expansion. Jeff contrasts this opportunity with other high-quality names like Nike, arguing that Fiserv offers a superior risk-reward profile because the valuation has already compressed significantly, providing a wider margin of safety compared to consumer stocks that remain priced for perfection.

Regarding valuation, the shares recently traded at approximately 7x to 8x earnings, representing a historic discount relative to the company’s long-term average P/E of over 30x. Jeff noted that the firm began accumulating shares when the multiple compressed to 12x earnings as the price dropped into the $120s. In addition to the depressed earnings multiple, the stock offers a double-digit FCF yield. This valuation disconnect suggests that the market is pricing Fiserv as a permanently impaired asset rather than a proven compounder experiencing a temporary cyclical trough.

Disclaimer

Best Ideas 2026 was held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Tito Avila of LIS Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Brookfield Corporation (US/Canada: BN) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Brookfield is not a traditional asset manager but rather a capital allocator overseeing a diverse ecosystem of businesses. The company controls over $180 billion of discretionary capital and functions as a platform designed for long-term compounding. Structurally, the entity relies on three main pillars: a majority stake in Brookfield Asset Management (BAM), which serves as the fee and carry engine; Brookfield Wealth Solutions (BWS), an insurance platform providing long-duration permanent capital; and directly owned Operating Businesses in infrastructure, renewables, real estate, and private equity. This configuration allows BN to upstream cash flows from subsidiaries and redeploy them into high-return opportunities across the ecosystem, optimizing for returns on invested capital.

The thesis is underpinned by sustainable cash flow growth driven by structural tailwinds, including the demand for infrastructure fueled by AI, the energy transition, and an aging population requiring retirement solutions. Tito notes that BN is positioned to capitalize on the consolidation of the alternative asset management industry and the growth of private credit, reinforced by the Oaktree acquisition. Management guidance implies up to 25% annual growth in distributable earnings (DE) over the next five years, supported by the scaling of fee-bearing capital and the compounding of the insurance float. BWS is particularly strategic, utilizing an investment-led model to generate spread earnings by allocating float into high-quality credit and real assets where the firm possesses deep expertise.

A critical component of the investment case is the owner-operator culture and strong alignment of interest. Senior management holds a 20% stake in the company, fostering a long-term horizon and a focus on downside protection. Tito highlights BN’s history of contrarian capital allocation, utilizing a conservative balance sheet to invest during periods of stress when capital is scarce. While the real estate arm (BPG) has faced cyclical headwinds, the debt is structured as non-recourse to the parent, containing systemic risk. The strategy involves recycling capital from mature assets into higher-return opportunities, a process accelerated by the anticipated realization of accrued carried interest, which Tito describes as a “hidden gem” with $12 billion in realizations expected over the next five years.

Regarding valuation, the shares recently traded at a meaningful discount to peers and roughly a 30% discount to management’s estimate of plan value. Tito attributes this gap to structural complexity, lack of inclusion in major U.S. equity indices, and lower market visibility relative to competitors. A conservative sum-of-the-parts analysis, which marks public holdings at market and applies haircuts to private assets and carry, suggests limited downside. Even without a re-rating, the thesis projects a long-term IRR in the mid-teens to low-20s percent range, driven primarily by organic cash flow growth and reinvestment. Any narrowing of the discount through potential catalysts, such as eventual index inclusion or improved communication, would provide optional upside.

Disclaimer

Best Ideas 2026 was held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Private investor Samir Mohamed presented his investment thesis on AbraSilver Resource Corporation (Canada: ABRA) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Samir views AbraSilver as a prime vehicle to capitalize on a structural bull market in precious metals, specifically silver. He contends that silver remains undervalued relative to gold and historic inflation-adjusted highs, with physical demand increasingly driving pricing. The company operates in Argentina, a jurisdiction that Samir argues has improved substantially under the administration of Javier Milei. The introduction of the RIGI investment incentive framework—featuring a reduced corporate tax rate of 25%, the elimination of export duties, and 30-year fiscal stability agreements—has positioned Argentina as a fiscally competitive destination for mining capital relative to regional peers like Chile, Peru, and Mexico.

The company’s flagship asset, the Diablillos project in Salta province, sits at a critical inflection point on the Lassonde curve, transitioning from the engineering phase toward development. A Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) is expected in Q2 2026, with a construction decision anticipated in the second half of the year and commercial production targeted for late 2029. The current mine plan projects a 13-year life with average annual production of approximately 6 million ounces of silver and 72,000 ounces of gold. As an open-pit operation with secured local water access and no nearby communities to disturb, the project is estimated to achieve an AISC of less than $13 per silver equivalent ounce, placing it in the lower quartile of the industry cost curve.

Beyond the existing mine plan, Samir highlights several “free options” that offer upside not currently reflected in the share price. The company recently reported a 36% increase in resources, which will be incorporated into the upcoming technical studies to potentially extend mine life or increase throughput. Additionally, AbraSilver has consistently added roughly 40 million AgEq ounces annually through exploration. A secondary asset, the La Coipita copper-gold project in San Juan, provides further optionality through a collaboration with Teck, where the partner funds exploration costs to earn an 80% interest, allowing AbraSilver to retain upside without capital outlay.

The leadership team includes executives with experience at major entities such as Lundin Mining, Barrick, and Wheaton Precious Metals, providing the requisite expertise for mine financing and construction. Management and the board hold a 3% equity stake, investing alongside notable shareholders including Eric Sprott and Kinross Gold. Upcoming catalysts include the approval of environmental permits and tax incentives in Q1 2026, followed by the release of the DFS and an updated resource estimate in Q2 2026.

Regarding valuation, Samir asserts that the company trades at a distinct discount to the project’s intrinsic value. Using a base case with silver at $67/oz, gold at $4,200/oz, and a 13% discount rate, he calculates the NPV of the Diablillos project at approximately $2.7 billion. With the company’s market capitalization recently hovering around $1.3 billion, the stock trades at roughly 0.5x NPV based on the existing mine plan. When adjusting for the recent resource expansion and projecting continued exploration success over the next four years, Samir estimates the NPV could reach $5.4 billion, implying a potential upside of roughly 320% by mid-2028.

Disclaimer

Best Ideas 2026 is held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Stephen Dodson of Bretton Fund presented his in-depth investment thesis on UnitedHealth Group (US: UNH) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

UNH operates as a dominant healthcare franchise combining UnitedHealthcare, the nation’s largest insurer, with Optum, a massive healthcare services arm serving 100 million Americans. This dual structure creates a distinct competitive advantage, particularly in the shift toward Value-Based Care (VBC), where provider incentives align with patient outcomes to control costs. By owning both the insurance risk and the care delivery network (OptumHealth), the company leverages superior data and scale to drive efficiencies that pure-play competitors cannot match. The business has historically delivered consistent low-double-digit compounding in revenue and EPS, supported by high returns on capital and a diverse stream of profit pools across pharmacy benefits, data analytics, and care delivery.

The company recently faced substantial headwinds driven by a sharp, unexpected increase in healthcare utilization and an underwriting failure in its Medicare Advantage (MA) book. In 2025, the Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) spiked to near 90%, well above the historical average of 82%, as the company aggressively expanded into MA just as patient acuity and utilization rates accelerated. This mispricing was exacerbated by regulatory rate pressures and a lag effect from delayed COVID-19 treatments, leading to fears of permanently impaired earnings and causing the stock to trade at a discount relative to its history.

Stephen views these operational setbacks as cyclical and fixable rather than structural. Under the leadership of returning CEO Stephen Hemsley, management is aggressively repricing its book of business, increasing premiums on commercial plans by low double digits and ACA plans by roughly 25%. The company is also pruning unprofitable membership, projecting a loss of ~1 million MA subscribers to reset the cost base. While these actions will dampen near-term growth, they are designed to restore operating margins to the historical 8-9% range over the medium term, with the company expecting a return to regular growth by 2027.

Long-term growth remains underpinned by secular tailwinds, specifically the ongoing penetration of MA and the broader expansion of US health spending. As the industry transitions from fee-for-service to VBC—growing at 15% annually—UnitedHealth’s integrated model positions it to capture economics across the value chain. Optum’s diverse business lines, including OptumRx and OptumInsight, provide durability against volatility in the insurance underwriting cycle. Furthermore, the company maintains a shareholder-centric capital allocation strategy, consistently deploying free cash flow toward dividends and share repurchases, although buybacks have been temporarily paused to reduce leverage following the Amedisys acquisition.

Shares recently traded at roughly $341, implying a market capitalization of $310 billion and a 2.6% dividend yield. While the stock trades at approximately 21x depressed 2025 earnings of $16.32, the valuation compresses to roughly 16x estimated 2027 earnings of nearly $21 as margins recover. Stephen argues that the market is currently underwriting permanently lower margins of 5-6%, ignoring the high probability of a mean reversion to historical profitability levels. The current valuation offers a compelling entry point for a high-quality compounder temporarily dislocated by solvable underwriting errors.

Disclaimer

Best Ideas 2026 is held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Elliot Turner of RGA Investment Advisors presented his in-depth investment thesis on Celsius Holdings (US: CELH) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Celsius is a differentiated brand in the energy drink category, distinguished by a “better-for-you” value proposition that appeals to health-conscious consumers and fitness enthusiasts. Unlike incumbents Red Bull and Monster, which cultivate “extreme sports” or “blue collar” identities, Celsius focuses on functional energy with zero sugar and proprietary ingredients, a positioning that has successfully expanded the total addressable market by attracting women and former coffee drinkers who historically rejected the category. The recent acquisition of Alani Nu transforms the business into a diversified holding company, adding a complementary, female-centric brand known for viral social media marketing and a high-velocity limited-time offer (LTO) strategy that drives strong customer recurrence.

The core growth algorithm is predicated on category expansion rather than merely capturing market share from legacy players. Elliot notes that while the U.S. energy drink market is projected to grow in the mid-single digits, Celsius and Alani Nu are poised to outpace this by targeting the $100 billion coffee market, where consumers spend 3-4x more annually than on energy drinks. The integration of Alani Nu into the PepsiCo distribution network acts as a primary catalyst, providing “rocket fuel” for the brand by expanding its presence from mass retailers like Target into high-frequency channels such as convenience stores, where it is currently under-penetrated.

Operationally, the thesis acknowledges the friction caused by the transition to the PepsiCo distribution system, specifically inventory destocking that temporarily compressed top-line growth and weighed on the stock price. However, Elliot views these issues as transitional “growing pains” rather than structural defects, noting that scanner data indicates improving sell-through trends. The partnership with PepsiCo, which owns an approximate 11% stake in the company, solidifies Celsius as the “category captain” within the Pepsi system, a status reinforced by the appointment of a former Pepsi executive as COO to improve supply chain coordination and data sharing.

Beyond domestic expansion, international markets represent a substantial, largely unpriced call option for the business. While competitors like Monster generate roughly 40% of their revenue internationally, Celsius currently derives only about 5% from outside the US, offering a long runway for growth as it leverages global partners like Suntory. Additionally, the company maintains a robust balance sheet with a net cash position and has authorized a $300 million share repurchase program, signaling management’s intent to take advantage of price dislocations and allocate capital efficiently as the business matures.

Regarding valuation, the shares recently traded at approximately 17x forward EBITDA, a level Elliot describes as compelling for a company with this growth profile. This multiple sits at the low end of Monster’s historical ten-year trading range of 17x to 25x, despite Celsius growing at a faster rate than Monster did during comparable periods. With gross margins expected to expand from roughly 50% toward the mid-to-high 50s and free cash flow projected to approach $1 billion, the thesis models an annualized IRR of nearly 17% over a five-year horizon.

Disclaimer

Best Ideas 2026 is held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Christian Billinger of Billinger Förvaltning presented his investment thesis on European spirits companies at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Christian presents a contrarian investment thesis on the European spirits sector, specifically focusing on the major listed players: Diageo, Pernod Ricard, Remy Cointreau, and Davide Campari-Milano. Historically regarded as high-quality compounders with robust brands, global distribution networks, and long growth runways, these companies generated approximately 15% TSR annually between the GFC and the onset of the pandemic. However, market sentiment has shifted dramatically, driving share prices down 60-85% from their peaks. This drawdown is primarily driven by fears of a structural decline in alcohol consumption, particularly in the U.S. Christian argues that these concerns are overstated and that the current valuation compression represents a cyclical downturn rather than a permanent impairment, offering an attractive entry point for long-term investors.

The bearish narrative centers on declining per capita consumption in the U.S., which has fallen 10-15% since peaking in 2022. Christian contends this decline must be viewed in the context of the exceptional, price-driven growth seen in 2020 and 2021, suggesting a normalization rather than a structural break. He notes that U.S. per capita consumption remained remarkably stable at 8-10 LPA for decades prior to the pandemic and that historical industry cycles—such as the 25% decline observed between the early 1980s and late 1990s—eventually reversed. Furthermore, volume is not the sole driver of returns; while global alcohol volumes have been flat over the last decade, the market value has grown 16%, driven by premiumization and positive category shifts where spirits have gained share from wine and beer.

The sector offers distinct exposures across the four main entities. Diageo and Pernod Ricard serve as large, diversified groups with broad global reach across categories and price points. In contrast, Remy Cointreau is a focused business with exposure to Cognac and the China/U.S. markets, while Campari acts as a hybrid with dominance in aperitifs and European exposure. Even within a flat aggregate market, specific brands and categories have delivered robust growth; for example, Tequila and brands like Don Julio and Aperol have achieved double-digit CAGRs over the last decade. Beyond top-line growth, Christian identifies opportunities for value creation through operational efficiencies and cost reductions, noting that the industry saw little operating leverage during the boom years.

Valuations have contracted significantly, with the diversified majors Diageo and Pernod Ricard recently trading at FCF yields of approximately 6-8%. The more focused entities, Campari and Remy Cointreau, recently traded at yields of roughly 5% and 3% respectively, reflecting their higher historical volatility and currently depressed earnings bases—Remy’s earnings, for instance, have fallen nearly 70%. While leverage remains a constraint for aggressive buybacks across the sector, Christian believes the current prices discount an overly negative scenario, providing an asymmetric opportunity if growth stabilizes or if management teams pivot effectively toward capital discipline and efficiency.

Disclaimer

Best Ideas 2026 is held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Nitin Sacheti of Papyrus Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Genesis Energy LP (US: GEL) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Genesis Energy is an MLP operating offshore pipeline transportation in the Gulf of Mexico, marine transportation, and onshore services. Nitin highlights a corporate transformation driven by the sale of the company’s volatile soda ash business in Q2 2025 and the completion of a major pipeline capex cycle. These strategic shifts have eliminated the earnings obfuscation caused by historical commodity volatility and high spending, revealing a cleaner balance sheet and a stable, growing FCF structure anchored by three remaining business segments.

The company is now benefitting from a “flywheel effect” driven by rising earnings and declining capital intensity. The offshore pipeline segment, described as the “crown jewel,” features irreplaceable assets tied to deepwater drills with low lifting costs and high capacity utilization. As new projects like the CHOPS, Poseidon, and SYNC pipelines come online with take-or-pay contracts, volume ramps from developments such as Shenandoah and Salamanca will drive FCF growth. Concurrently, the marine transportation segment benefits from the Jones Act moat and a supply/demand imbalance that supports higher day rates, while the onshore business provides stable, fee-based logistics support.

A central pillar of the thesis is management’s newfound discipline regarding capital allocation. Rather than chasing high-priced acquisitions, the team is focused on deleveraging and addressing the capital structure, specifically retiring high-cost preferred equity with coupons exceeding 12%. The strategy involves modest 10-15% dividend growth in the near term, utilizing excess FCF to pay down preferreds and refinance debt. This financial engineering paves the way for a step-change in distributions, with a target payout ratio of 75% by 2027.

There appears to be limited downside risk to projections given the stable, contractual nature of the assets. The pipelines benefit from life-of-lease dedications, and the marine business is insulated by the prohibitive costs of new vessel construction and a lack of shipyard capacity. While a repeal of the Jones Act represents a theoretical risk, geopolitical dynamics make this unlikely. The primary variable is not fundamental earnings volatility, but rather the timing of capital allocation decisions as the company transitions toward a higher payout model.

The shares recently traded at $16, implying a near 50% discount to peers. Nitin estimates FCF will reach roughly $2.70 per share in 2027. The current valuation gap is largely a function of the depressed dividend yield during this deleveraging phase. However, as management executes its plan to increase the distribution to $2.00 per share in 2027, the stock is expected to re-rate. Applying a 7% yield to that future dividend implies a price of $28, offering ~75% upside.

Disclaimer

Best Ideas 2026 is held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Will Thomson of Massif Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Global Atomic Corp. (Canada: GLO) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Global Atomic is a counter-cyclical opportunity in the uranium sector, distinguishing its management team as rare “Timers” who successfully acquired and advanced the Dasa Project during market lows. Located in Niger, the Dasa Project is described as a Tier-1, high-grade deposit with a 23-year mine life and 73 million pounds of reserves, notably standing as the only greenfield uranium mine currently under construction globally. Unlike its peers, Global Atomic is positioned to bring supply online in late 2027 or early 2028, timing its entry to coincide with the “teeth” of a structural supply-demand deficit in the nuclear fuel market.

The core thesis rests on a significant dislocation between the share price and fundamental value, driven by what Will characterizes as “headline” political risk and temporary financing delays. Following the 2023 military coup in Niger and the revocation of permits for competitors like Orano and GoviEx, the market has treated the jurisdiction as uninvestable. However, Will argues this view is superficial; the peer revocations were legally grounded in mining codes regarding non-performance, whereas Global Atomic has continued construction without interruption. The Niger government, which holds a 20% stake and relies on mining for 12% of its budget, is aligned with the project’s success to reverse declining national production.

Financing uncertainty has further depressed the valuation, specifically regarding the delay of a debt package from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC). Will notes that the loan process advanced to the Investment Committee in December 2025 with a positive recommendation, and a resolution is anticipated shortly. Even if this primary option fails, management has cultivated alternative paths including strategic partnerships, royalty deals, or equity issuance. Stress-testing the thesis against a “worst-case” equity financing scenario involving ~35% dilution still yields a probability-weighted return exceeding 60%, suggesting the downside is capped while preserving exposure to the asset’s core value.

While the investment is driven by company-specific value, it is supported by a “favorable but insufficient” macro backdrop. Will emphasizes that while most uranium theses rely solely on unpredictable commodity price appreciation, Global Atomic offers a fundamental value arbitrage that works even if uranium prices remain static. The company has de-risked revenue by pre-selling 43% of the first five years of production to utilities, creating an asymmetry where investors can buy a fully permitted, partially built asset at a price equivalent to its exploration phase value.

The shares recently traded at CAD $0.97, a level that implies a uranium price of approximately $60 per pound, significantly below the long-term contracting price of ~$85 per pound. Will estimates that a DCF analysis using a 12% discount rate and current spot prices yields a value closer to CAD $3.00 per share. The probability-weighted expected return is projected at 89% over a 12 to 24-month holding period, with individual upside scenarios reaching as high as 300% as the project moves toward production.

Disclaimer

Best Ideas 2026 is held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Michael Melby of Gate City Capital Management presented his investment thesis on Intrepid Potash (US: IPI) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Intrepid Potash is a diversified minerals company operating in three segments. The Potash segment produces potash from three solution mines. The Trio segment mines and sells langbeinite, a specialty fertilizer containing potassium, magnesium, and sulfur, which Intrepid markets under the Trio brand name. The Oilfield Solutions segment owns land and water assets in the Permian Basin and sells products and services to energy producers.

Intrepid Potash has a market capitalization of $365 million and with $77 million in net cash, has an enterprise value of $288 million. In 2025, Mike expects Intrepid to generate $297 million in revenue, $61 million in EBITDA, and $27 million in free cash flow. Intrepid recently traded at attractive valuation metrics of 5.4x EV/EBITDA, 0.9x EV/Revenues, 0.7x Price/Tangible Book Value, and a 10% free cash flow yield.

Intrepid also has several valuable assets which might not be obvious to outside investors. In 2023, Intrepid entered into a cooperation agreement with XTO (a subsidiary of Exxon Mobil) regarding Intrepid’s potash mining operations at Carlsbad, New Mexico (located within the Permian Basin). Intrepid agreed to support XTO’s development of oil and natural gas within the vicinity of Intrepid’s Carlsbad operations. In exchange, XTO agreed to pay Intrepid $50 million upfront (fully paid in early 2024), $50 million when XTO receives regulatory approval for the next drilling island, and up to an additional $100 million based on the number of lateral feet that XTO drills.

Mike’s research suggests XTO is progressing on approvals for additional drilling islands. Intrepid also owns nearly 22,000 surface acres of land in Lea County, New Mexico. Several well-capitalized entities have aggressively purchased surface acreage in and around Lea County in recent years at prices north of $5,000/acre, suggesting this non-core acreage could be worth over $100 million.

Intrepid recently entered into a partnership with two firms to develop Intrepid’s lithium resource at the company’s solution mine in Wendover, Utah. Testing indicates that the resource meets key specifications for battery manufacturing and the project should benefit from the prior buildout of infrastructure at the site for legacy potash operations. Intrepid has stated its intention to limit its capital investment in the project.

Intrepid recently underwent a management change after Bob Jornayvaz (Intrepid’s co-founder and former CEO and Chairman) retired from the company after sustaining a serious injury. In December 2024, Kevin Crutchfield was named CEO and has focused on improving operations and avoiding expenditures outside of the company’s core business. In January 2025, Gonzalo Avendano was added to the Board of Directors. Mr. Avendano’s firm owns over 9% of Intrepid shares and his interests are well-aligned with investors. The change in leadership could also lead to shareholder returns, as Intrepid’s sizeable $77 million net cash balance sheet could be utilized to repurchase shares at attractive prices.

Disclaimer

Best Ideas 2026 is held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Bob Robotti of Robotti & Company Advisors presented his investment thesis on Subsea 7 (Norway: SUBC, US: SUBCY) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis Summary

Subsea 7 has evolved from a traditional offshore oil and gas service provider into a diversified engineering and installation leader encompassing offshore wind, carbon capture, and hydrogen applications. Bob highlights that the company is currently undergoing a transformational merger with Saipem, creating the industry’s largest fleet and a combined entity with approximately €21 billion in revenue, a scale comparable to Halliburton. This consolidation follows a decade of industry attrition where Subsea 7 opportunistically acquired distressed competitors and assets—such as a $1 billion portfolio purchased for $800 million—strengthening its position at a fraction of replacement cost.

The industry is characterized by formidable barriers to entry, illustrated by the failure of well-capitalized entrants like Ceona, which possessed modern vessels but lacked the critical engineering track record required by major oil companies to sanction multibillion-dollar projects. Consequently, the market is now dominated by a few key players, primarily TechnipFMC and the Subsea 7/Saipem combination. The “Subsea Alliance” with Schlumberger further entrenches Subsea 7’s position by offering integrated FEED studies and execution, effectively disintermediating third-party engineering firms. This integration improves project economics for operators, making offshore developments viable at lower commodity prices while securing a sticky customer base that often awards contracts without competitive bidding.

The merger with Saipem is driven by industrial logic rather than financial engineering alone. While the companies have guided for €350 million in cost synergies, Bob argues the revenue synergies from fleet optimization are the primary value driver. The combined entity can deploy specific vessel types—such as J-lay or S-lay assets—more efficiently across global projects, minimizing non-revenue-generating transit times and maximizing utilization. With Saipem reporting its enabling assets fully booked for the next two years, this supply-demand tightness provides pricing power that is not yet fully reflected in reported earnings, which are currently weighed down by lower-margin legacy contracts awarded during leaner periods.

Growth is further supported by an expanding addressable market that now includes substantial gas developments driven by global LNG demand and energy security mandates in regions like the Mediterranean and Mozambique. Additionally, “tie-back” projects allow operators to connect new fields to existing infrastructure economically, generating volume for installation contractors with limited capital outlay for the client. Bob notes that Kristian Siem, a key shareholder and architect of the merger, provides the disciplined owner-operator mindset crucial for capital allocation in this cyclical industry. The combined business is poised to benefit from a growing pipeline of large-scale projects and a resurgence in geographies like Brazil, West Africa, and Mexico.

Regarding valuation, Subsea 7 recently traded at approximately 10x standalone earnings, a level Bob considers modest given the improved earnings power and the marked disparity with US-listed peer TechnipFMC, which commands a substantially higher multiple. The thesis posits that as the backlog churns into higher-priced contracts and merger synergies materialize, EBITDA margins—already approaching 20%—will expand further, driving robust FCF generation. Additionally, shareholders are expected to receive approximately $1 billion in distributions prior to the merger closing in late 2026. Bob views the current valuation as paying a mid-to-low multiple on future earnings power, offering a margin of safety for a market leader in a recovering sector.

Disclaimer

Best Ideas 2026 is held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Alejandro Estebaranz of True Value presented his investment thesis on Unidata (Italy: UD) at European Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis Summary

Unidata is a founder-led Italian digital infrastructure provider with a diversified portfolio of services including connectivity, cloud, and IoT solutions, underpinned by a proprietary network of over 7,000 km of fiber and two data centers. The company is positioned to capitalize on Italy’s structural need to expand its fiber network, which currently lags European peers, while benefiting from fiber’s technological superiority over competing 5G and satellite technologies. With a strong history of revenue growth, stable margins, and high insider ownership exceeding 55%, Unidata presents a compelling profile of a well-managed, aligned, and strategically positioned operator.

The core of the investment thesis rests on a significant inflection point expected within the next two years, driven by the completion and value crystallization of three strategic, late-stage joint ventures. These include Unifiber, a Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH) project in the Lazio region; Unitirreno, a new low-latency submarine cable connecting Italy to Northern Europe; and Unicenter, a Tier IV data center in Rome designed for AI workloads and serving as the cable’s landing station. These de-risked projects, developed with credible partners, are all scheduled to become operational by 2025, transitioning the company from a period of heavy investment to one of significant cash flow generation and rapid deleveraging.

The company’s financial trajectory is robust, with projections indicating a revenue CAGR of 12% and an EBITDA CAGR of 15% between 2024 and 2027, while maintaining stable EBITDA margins in the 27-28% range. As capital expenditures normalize post-2025, Unidata is forecast to deleverage, with its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio expected to fall from 1.7x in 2024 to 0.4x by 2027. This financial discipline is projected to generate substantial FCF, with an implied FCF yield exceeding 20% in 2026, offering capacity for shareholder returns or further strategic investments.

Unidata’s shares recently traded at a deep discount to their intrinsic value, creating an arbitrage opportunity between public and private market valuations for digital infrastructure assets. The company’s 2025 estimated EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.5x stands in contrast to the 18-20x multiples seen in M&A for comparable FTTH assets and the 10-13x multiples for corporate peers like Retelit and EOLO. This valuation disconnect is the basis for a target price of €6.60 per share, which implies an upside of over 100% from recent levels. As the strategic joint ventures become operational and their value becomes undeniable, a re-rating of the stock is anticipated, closing the gap to its private market value.

Disclaimer

European Investing Summit 2025 was held from October 28 to November 3, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Kevin Durkin of Ballina Capital presented his investment thesis on SFS Group (Switzerland: SFSN) at European Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis summary:

SFS Group is a Swiss-based industrial company specializing in application-critical precision components, assemblies, and fastening solutions. The business operates in three segments: Engineered Components (EC), Fastening Systems (FS), and Distribution & Logistics (D&L). EC (~37% of sales) acts as a development partner for customer-specific components in end markets like automotive, medical, and electronics. FS (~20% of sales) provides mechanical fastening systems, primarily for the construction industry. The D&L segment (~44% of sales), which grew following the 2022 Hoffman acquisition, is a leading European distributor of tools, fasteners, and C-parts.

Kevin highlights SFS’s position as a “mission-critical value engineering specialist.” The company’s components often represent a small fraction of a customer’s manufacturing cost but are engineered to lower the customer’s total cost of assembly, logistics, and reliability. This approach creates embedded, loyal relationships. SFS is characterized by its “local-for-local” global footprint, high family ownership (over 50%), and a strong financial profile. Historically, the company generates ROIC above 20% and converts a high portion of its cash flow to FCF.

The investment opportunity, according to Kevin, arises from recent share price stagnation, which reflects several headwinds. The company is suffering from the broader industrial weakness in Europe, particularly in its key markets of Germany and Switzerland; Kevin notes the German Fabricated Metal Products IFO survey remains a key indicator of this pressure. This cyclical downturn has led to lower capacity utilization, pressuring margins. Furthermore, the strength of the Swiss franc has masked modest underlying top-line growth, and the 2024 results and 2025 outlook disappointed market expectations.

The thesis rests on both a cyclical recovery and company-specific “self-help” initiatives. SFS is undergoing a reorganization to close smaller, less productive satellite locations and consolidate volumes, which is expected to add 80 bps to operating margins. Management has also been streamlined to accelerate decision-making. Kevin sees a path for margins in the core EC segment to expand from ~14% toward a target range of 18-21% as capacity utilization improves. Long-term growth is supported by M&A, R&D spending aligned with trends like electrification, and a strategic push to rebalance sales geographically toward North America and Asia.

Regarding valuation, Kevin notes the shares recently traded at 109.6 CHF. He believes the valuation is supported by a DCF estimate of approximately 115 CHF (using a 9% WACC). The company trades at multiples below its own 5-year reflexive history and at a discount to peers on an EV/EBIT basis, despite most peers having lower margins. The thesis anticipates that as SFS executes its self-help plan and the industrial economy recovers, the company should see its multiple expand closer to 12-13x EBITDA on a higher base of earnings.

Disclaimer

European Investing Summit 2025 was held from October 28 to November 3, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Christian Olesen of Olesen Value Fund presented his investment thesis on Bellway (UK: BWY) at European Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis summary:

Bellway is a UK-based pure-play homebuilder, the fifth-largest in the country by revenue. The company was founded in 1946 and focuses on single-family homes, typically at a lower mid-range price point. Christian highlights that the company maintains very little exposure (less than 5%) to the London market. This is relevant as UK home prices outside of London do not appear to be meaningfully overvalued, reducing the risk of large land write-downs compared to London-focused peers.

The UK homebuilding industry is highly cyclical, characterized by volatile demand and a slow-adjusting supply. Christian notes that the UK’s complex and slow “planning system” creates high barriers to entry, making it difficult for smaller builders to operate. This uncertainty requires builders to maintain a large pipeline of sites, favoring scaled operators like Bellway. This dynamic has contributed to industry consolidation and a more rational land market post-GFC, with fewer, more disciplined bidders for land.

The investment opportunity stems from a cyclical downturn in UK housing demand, driven by interest rate increases since 2022, which has depressed the stock. Christian views Bellway as one of the highest-quality, most conservatively managed builders in the UK, noting it outperformed peers during the GFC. The business possesses a strong, almost unlevered balance sheet (approx. 6% net debt to total cap) and generates positive FCF during downturns as its inventory (land and work-in-progress) is freed up. This financial strength minimizes tail risks. The company has a long track record of compounding book value per share (plus dividends) at a 15.2% CAGR since 1994. Management recently updated its capital allocation framework to include a new £150m buyback program and a greater focus on capital returns.

Christian points out that the shares recently traded at 0.87x P/TBV, which compares favorably to its 22-year historical average multiple of 1.26x P/TBV. This suggests a 45% upside merely from a reversion to the mean. Based on an estimated 13% mid-cycle ROE, the stock trades at an inexpensive 6.7x mid-cycle earnings. Christian projects that if the stock is held for two years and exits at its historical 1.26x P/TBV multiple, the investment could generate a 35% annualized return. A more conservative six-year hold under the same assumptions would still yield a 17% annualized return, offering an attractive risk-adjusted upside.

Disclaimer

European Investing Summit 2025 was held from October 28 to November 3, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Stuart Mitchell of S. W. Mitchell Capital presented his investment thesis on Volkswagen (Germany: VOW, VOW3) at European Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis summary:

Volkswagen is a controversial, deep-value cyclical investment. VW is the world’s second-largest car manufacturer with a 9% market share and the leading manufacturer in Europe with a 23% share. The group’s brand portfolio spans from mass-market Skoda (8% operating margin) to luxury Porsche (15% operating margin). Stuart notes that a long-standing challenge has been the core VW auto brand, which, despite its volume, earns only a 2% operating margin.

The investment thesis rests on management addressing three main challenges that have caused the share price to fall to the low 90s. The first challenge is China, where VW has a 20% share in internal combustion engines (ICE) but only 4% in battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Stuart argues that VW is responding effectively by introducing the ‘China Main Platform’ to cut production costs by 40% and creating the Volkswagen China Technology Company to develop software localized for Chinese consumers. A joint venture with XPENG will also provide a low-cost platform for Audi.

The second challenge is European profitability. Stuart points to a deep restructuring plan (‘Zukunft Volkswagen’) agreed upon in December 2024. This plan includes cutting 35,000 German jobs (25% of German capacity), reducing Wolfsburg capacity from four lines to two, and suspending a 5% wage increase until 2030. This contributes to a total cost-saving target of €15 billion. The third challenge, technology, Stuart believes is “more imagined than real,” arguing VW’s pragmatic “make and buy” approach, including JVs with Rivian and XPENG, is narrowing any perceived gap.

Stuart presents a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation to highlight the disconnect, with the stock recently trading near €92. A conservative SOTP analysis values the high-end Porsche models (911, Panamera) at 10x EV/EBIT and the mid-level luxury brands (Audi, Lamborghini, and the rest of Porsche) at 4x EV/EBIT. This SOTP, which also includes the truck and financial services divisions, plus €40 billion in industrial net cash, less pensions and minorities, results in a value per share of €313. Stuart notes this 10x multiple for Porsche is a fraction of Ferrari’s. If the restructuring is executed, he also projects the business could trade on 1.5x 2027 earnings.

Disclaimer

European Investing Summit 2025 was held from October 28 to November 3, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Shaun Heelan of Maat Investment Group presented his investment thesis on Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (Austria: MMK) at European Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis summary:

Mayr-Melnhof Karton is a dominant Austrian paper and packaging producer historically run as a conservative, low-leverage family business (58% foundation-owned). This changed in 2020 when new management, led by CEO Peter Oswald, pivoted to an aggressive growth strategy, undertaking a major capex program and M&A splurge. The company moved into virgin fiber (FBB) cartonboard and expanded its packaging division, funded by debt. This shift coincided with “Goldilocks” COVID-era conditions, which saw demand and pricing explode, leading to peak earnings in 2022 and Mr. Oswald being named CEO of the year.

Following the 2022 peak, MMK faced a confluence of negative factors. The Ukraine war eliminated 10% of industry demand (Russia) and spiked energy costs just as the company’s hedges rolled off. Simultaneously, a massive post-COVID destocking cycle by customers reversed the demand boom. This occurred just as MMK and competitors (like Stora Enso) brought new capacity online, causing industry utilization to collapse to 40-year lows (below 70%) and MMK’s EBIT per ton to turn negative in 2023. With leverage peaking at over 3.5x net debt/EBITDA, the market feared a dilutive rights issue, and the share price fell to an all-time low.

The market is overlooking a decisive “strategic pivot” and the cyclical nature of the industry. The family foundation stepped in late last year, forcing a volte-face: MMK is now de-emphasizing M&A and cutting capex to maintenance levels. The company is actively deleveraging, proven by the sale of its TANN assets for ~€494m (nearly double their 2018 purchase price). Shaun argues the capacity issue is temporary, with utilization already recovering to over 80% and competitors shutting down inefficient plants. He notes MMK has a moat in its “grandfathered” recycled plants, which are protected by NIMBY issues. As a strong signal of a trough, the company initiated its third-ever share buyback (up to 5%, capped at €80), and Shaun expects a substantial dividend increase as leverage falls below 2.0x.

Shaun believes the company is substantially undervalued, with a normalized EV of €4.4bn to €6.2bn, compared to its recent EV of €2.7bn. The valuation is supported by a sum-of-the-parts analysis, valuing the cartonboard assets at €1.4bn-€2.0bn and the packaging division at €3.0bn-€4.2bn. This packaging valuation is validated by the recent TANN asset sale at 11.2x EBITDA, a stark contrast to the entire group’s recent multiple of <6x TTM EBITDA. On a normalized basis, Shaun estimates MMK trades at 4.5x EV/EBITDA. He sees a base case price of €118 (at 6x 2028E EBITDA) and a bull case of €160 (at 8x), with downside protection from the 58% family ownership (no take-under risk) and the new buyback program.

Disclaimer

European Investing Summit 2025 was held from October 28 to November 3, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Jean-Pascal Rolandez of The L.T. Funds presented his investment thesis on Edenred (France: EDEN) at European Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis summary:

Edenred is a world leader in specific use payment solutions. The company originated the restaurant voucher in France and operates on a commission-based model, charging both client issuers and merchant partners. After being spun off from Accor in 2010 , Edenred expanded to become the sector leader , operating in 45 countries with a network of over 1 million client issuers, 2 million merchant partners, and 60 million users. The company has diversified beyond vouchers into management services and controlled payments.

The investment thesis highlights a strong business model, a global network , and a management team described as very good, financially minded, and excellent at execution. The company has a strong post-Covid track record, showing +21% sales p.a. and +25% EBIT. While originating in France, the country now represents only 12% of OP. The business demonstrates high cash flow generation, with FCF estimated at approximately 30% of sales.

The opportunity exists because the company is viewed as a “fallen star” due to current regulatory uncertainty. This regulatory risk is present in all countries , with three main countries specifically under review. Other threats include potential new reforms, unfavorable litigation judgments, and fines from competition authorities. Weaknesses noted include high tax rates (31-32%) , exposure to Latin America (29% of EBIT) , and the presence of goodwill and negative equity.

The presentation suggested the valuation was attractive due to this regulatory overhang. It was noted that Capital group had taken a 10% stake, alongside seven other US investors holding 5%. Based on 2026 estimates, the shares recently traded at an EV/EBITDA of 4.1x. The thesis projects a durable high single-digit growth rate , and at the time of the presentation, the gross dividend yield was 5.8%.

Disclaimer

European Investing Summit 2025 was held from October 28 to November 3, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Daniel Gladiš of Vltava Fund presented his investment thesis on Marex Group (US: MRX) at European Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis summary:

Marex is a UK-based global financial services platform providing essential market access, liquidity, and infrastructure for institutional clients in the energy, commodity, and financial markets. The company operates four interconnected segments: Clearing Services, Agency & Execution, Market Making, and Hedging & Investment Solutions. Marex serves ~5,000 active clients and is positioned as a key provider for medium-sized funds, occupying a niche underserved by the largest banks (who require high commission minimums) and smaller independents (who lack global coverage).

The investment thesis rests on high barriers to entry and a favorable, consolidating competitive landscape. It took Marex nearly a decade from its founding to build its initial, small business, highlighting the difficulty of scaling in this space. Competitive intensity has declined, with the number of Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs) falling by about 50% since 2002 while client assets have grown. This consolidation has allowed Marex to become a top-10 FCM in the U.S. by client assets. Unlike most peers, Marex and its closest competitor, StoneX, are among the few players offering a comprehensive suite across all four service segments .

Marex benefits from long-term secular trends, including the increasing demand for cleared products and derivatives and the general expansion of financial and commodity markets. Near-term business drivers include higher interest rates and market volatility, making the stock an effective bet on future volatility. Growth is achieved through a combination of organic initiatives and a disciplined M&A strategy, with a target 60/40 organic/inorganic mix. Transformative acquisitions like ED&F Man and the TD Cowen prime brokerage business have expanded its customer base and service offering, driving strong client growth; clients generating >$1M in revenue grew at a 54% CAGR from 2021-2024 .

The company has a 10-year track record of strong profit growth through varied market conditions, growing Adjusted PBT from $16 million in 2014 to $321 million in 2024. The business is also becoming more stable; while average monthly PBT has grown, its standard deviation has not grown proportionally, making earnings more predictable. The balance sheet appears highly leveraged, but ~80% of assets are driven by client activity and net out, leaving a modest residual balance sheet. Marex maintains an investment grade rating and strong regulatory capital ratios (2.42x the requirement). FCF conversion is high, in the mid-90% range.

The opportunity exists because Marex is a UK-based, financial small-cap ($2.2 billion market cap) with a short public history, making it ignored by passive strategies and difficult for outsiders to assess. A recent short report, viewed by the presenter as a “non-issue”, has also applied pressure to the stock. Based on UBS projections, the shares recently traded around $30, or approximately 7.7x 2025E earnings. These consensus estimates forecast ~10% annual EPS growth based only on organic expansion, and crucially, they do not include any contribution from future M&A . This omission suggests current earnings projections may underestimate the company’s true growth potential.

Disclaimer

European Investing Summit 2025 was held from October 28 to November 3, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Alirio Sendrea of Invexcel presented his in-depth investment thesis on Diageo (UK: DGE, US: DEO) at European Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis Summary

Diageo is the world’s largest premium spirits company, holding a 5% global value share and a 20% share in the premium-and-above segment. The company is 1.7x larger than its closest international peer and possesses an unparalleled portfolio of over 200 brands, including Johnnie Walker, Tanqueray, and Smirnoff, alongside a 34% stake in Moët Hennessy. The company is highly diversified, selling in 180 countries, and has a portfolio heavily weighted (over 60%) towards the premium-and-above segments, which is almost double the global average.

The spirits sector, as Alirio describes, has faced numerous headwinds that have caused it to go from “sunrise to moonlight,” with many fearing it as the “new tobacco.” These challenges include structural issues like consumer moderation and health consciousness (including GLP-1s) and changing Gen Z habits, as well as circumstantial issues like macro pressures on disposable income, inventory destocking after a post-COVID boom, and new tariffs. These factors led to the first US volume decrease in 30 years in 2023, causing valuations to collapse.

Alirio’s thesis argues this pessimism is misplaced, viewing the macro and inventory issues as transitory. He contends the structural shifts are manageable and create opportunities for “drinking less but better,” which favors Diageo’s premium portfolio. The company benefits from formidable moats, including immense scale, which provides bargaining power and a virtuous cycle of reinvestment. Other moats include the high barrier to entry from “aging,” which requires deep pockets to fund maturing inventory, and powerful brands that provide pricing power.

Diageo is leaning into these strengths, increasing its marketing (A&P) spend to 18% of sales while peers pull back, and growing its maturing inventory to drive future premium sales. Financially, Diageo leads its peers with stable operating margins, a higher ROIC, and superior cash conversion (69% EBITDA to CFO vs. 61% for peers). Alirio highlights that the company is prioritizing organic growth, funded by its strong FCF, and is also embarking on an efficiency plan. While leverage (Net Debt/EBITDA) is at the high end of its 2.5-3.0x target range, he views it as manageable and notes potential upside optionality not included in his valuation, such as portfolio restructuring.

Alirio’s valuation starts from a conservative “no-growth” top-line scenario and a normalized 29% operating margin. He values the Moët Hennessy stake at $7.1 billion using an 18x P/E multiple. His target price is derived from an average of three methods: an EV/EBIT (Market) multiple of 17.4x, an EV/EBIT (Transactions) multiple of 20.4x, and a P/FCF multiple of 18x. This methodology yields a target price of 28-29 pounds per share. Compared to a recent price of 1,750p, Alirio believes this offers a decent margin of safety for a quality, moaty business whose long-term profile is being blurred by short-term noise.

Disclaimer

European Investing Summit 2025 was held from October 28 to November 3, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Juan Huerta de Soto of Cobas Asset Management presented his investment thesis on Derichebourg (France: DBG) at European Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis summary:

Derichebourg is a French-listed leader in scrap metal recycling with #1 market positions in France (~40% share) and Spain. Juan notes this core business, representing 90% of EBITDA, possesses high barriers to entry based on regional economies of scale, a dense network that is difficult to replicate organically, and a highly regulated environment that advantages incumbents. The company also operates a smaller, stable public sector services business (10% of EBITDA) and holds a 48.3% stake in Elior Group, a separate, publicly-traded catering company.

The thesis is supported by a family-run management team with long-term alignment; the Derichebourg family owns 41% of the company. Juan highlights the team’s operational expertise, led by Chairman Daniel Derichebourg and Deputy CEO Abderrahmane El Aoufir, who has been with the company for over 40 years. Capital allocation is focused on disciplined M&A at cycle bottoms to gain market share and the payment of dividends.

Juan argues that the inherent cyclicality of the recycling business, which is tied to macroeconomic activity for both scrap supply and end-market demand, provides the mispricing and attractive entry point. The company mitigates this volatility by increasingly focusing on higher-margin, non-ferrous “niche” businesses. The 48.3% stake in Elior, which Juan believes the market ascribes no value to, also adds a non-cyclical, asset-light business. The recent restructuring of Elior is now complete, with margins and FCF improving, and a potential dividend from Elior could serve as a catalyst for Derichebourg.

The core recycling segment is also supported by a long-term secular growth trend, as EU regulations favor scrap metal recycling to meet energy transition and CO2 emission reduction goals. Using scrap is substantially less energy- and carbon-intensive than primary mining, with Juan noting an 86% reduction in CO2 emissions for steel produced via scrap-EAF.

The shares recently traded at a very attractive valuation. Juan calculates that after deducting the market value of the Elior stake, Derichebourg trades at approximately 2x EV/EBITDA and 4-5x P/FCF. This is a steep discount to its closest publicly traded peer, Sims (7.5x EV/EBITDA and 14x P/FCF), and the recent M&A transaction for peer Radius (8x EV/EBITDA and 12x P/FCF).

Disclaimer

European Investing Summit 2025 was held from October 28 to November 3, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Pieter Hundersmarck of Castra presented his investment thesis on Alcon AG (Switzerland: ALC, NYSE: ALC) at European Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis summary:

Alcon is the world’s largest eye care device company, domiciled in Switzerland and spun-off from Novartis in 2019. The company operates two segments: Surgical (56% of sales) and Vision Care (44% of sales). Pieter analyzes the company from a quality growth perspective, noting its market leadership in an attractive space. The company is growing its market share, partly through bolt-on acquisitions, within a total addressable market (TAM) estimated at $35 billion.

The Surgical segment, which accounts for 60% of EBIT, provides equipment, consumables, and implantables (IOLs) for ophthalmic surgery. Pieter finds this division attractive due to its wide moat, built on a razor-razorblade model. Alcon has an installed base of 28,000 surgical units, which drives recurring, high-margin revenue from proprietary consumables. This model, combined with brand leadership in premium IOLs like PanOptix and Vivity, creates high switching costs and provides pricing power.

The Vision Care segment consists of contact lenses and ocular health products, operating on a B2C model where Alcon competes on comfort, technology, and cost. The market benefits from tailwinds such as an aging population, which supports mid-single-digit growth. Pieter views Alcon as a market share gainer, citing its share growth in the global vision care market from 11.7% in 2020 to 13.5% in 2024.

The central thesis rests on margin acceleration and rising ROIC, which Pieter believes the market undervalues. ROIC has already improved from 6.1% in 2021 to 14.0% in 2024. The key catalyst is the roll-out of the new UNITY surgical platform, which is set to replace the 28,000-unit installed base over a five-year period. Pieter argues this all-in-one platform offers superior hospital throughput and unit economics, which should drive operating margins from current levels toward 20-25%. The primary risk to the thesis is execution on this complex platform launch.

Pieter’s valuation model is based on the UNITY roll-out, projecting a total revenue CAGR of ~7%. He forecasts operating margins improving to a 20-25% range, driven by manufacturing efficiencies and the premium product mix. Applying a 20x P/E multiple, his model yields a valuation range of $65 (bear) to $138 (bull). Compared to a recent price of $72, Pieter sees an asymmetric payoff, believing the market is underestimating the impact of the upcoming platform replacement cycle.

Disclaimer

European Investing Summit 2025 was held from October 28 to November 3, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Nils Herzing of Shareholder Value Beteiligungen AG presented his investment thesis on Norma Group SE (Germany: NOEJ) at European Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis Summary

Norma Group is a German producer of mission-critical C-components, such as clamps and fasteners, for automotive and industrial applications. The company is widely perceived as an automotive supplier, a sector facing cyclical and structural headwinds. The core of the investment thesis is a valuation dislocation driven by the pending sale of its highly profitable NDS water management division. This divestiture, which was pushed by activist shareholder Teleios (21% owner) and is expected to close by early 2026, provides a large cash infusion and a clear catalyst for the re-rating of the remaining business.

The “new” Norma, post-divestiture, will consist of the Mobility and Industry Applications segments. The market is concerned about the Mobility segment’s exposure to the ICE-to-BEV transition, but Nils’s research indicates that BEV content per vehicle (CPV) is 50-90% that of an ICE vehicle, mitigating this risk. Current profitability is depressed, with the Mobility segment recently operating at a 2% EBITA margin. Nils argues this is temporary, resulting from one-off costs related to plant rationalization (extra freight, temporary labor) and legacy OEM contracts. The company is now implementing a “margin-before-volume” policy on new contracts, targeting >10% EBIT margins, while the Industry Applications segment already achieves >10% margins.

The NDS sale is expected to generate proceeds of 840 million EUR ($1 billion USD). This cash influx is the thesis’s primary driver. Management plans to first repay all outstanding debt. Following this, a massive capital return is planned, starting with a 10% share buyback. A subsequent special tender, which requires an AGM vote, will aim to repurchase at least an additional 30% of shares outstanding. Nils highlights this will reduce the total share count by a minimum of 40%, driving significant EPS accretion, alongside an expected dividend. A smaller portion of the proceeds is earmarked for M&A in the industrial fastener space.

The stock recently traded around 15.00 EUR. Nils views this as highly compelling, noting the market cap of ~450 million EUR is backed by >300 million EUR in cash that the company will hold post-debt-repayment but pre-buybacks, illustrating a protected downside. Nils presented a SOTP valuation that arrives at a fair value of 23.80 EUR per share. This SOTP values the remaining Mobility business at 6.0x EV/EBIT and the Industry business at 8.0x EV/EBIT, combined with the net proceeds from the NDS sale. Based on a conservative margin recovery path (to 8% EBITA by 2030) and the large-scale repurchases, Nils projects a 22% TSR.

European Investing Summit 2025 was held from October 28 to November 3, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

James Emanuel of Rock & Turner presented his in-depth investment thesis on Topicus (Canada: TOI) at European Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis summary:

Topicus is a 2021 spin-off from Constellation Software (CSU) executing a programmatic acquirer playbook focused on the European market. James describes this “Acquisition-as-a-Business” (AaaB) model as one that uses permanent capital to acquire and indefinitely hold niche vertical market software (VMS) companies. This strategy differs from private equity or serial roll-ups by emphasizing extreme decentralization, which avoids integration risk and allows acquired businesses to run autonomously. James notes this decentralized approach builds portfolio diversification and “anti-fragility” while operating like an active fund without the associated 2-and-20 fees.

The company’s primary competitive advantage, according to James, is its disciplined, in-house M&A process inherited from CSU. Topicus leverages a proprietary Salesforce database of ~100,000 potential targets, where business managers with software backgrounds—not finance professionals—nurture relationships, often for years. This patient approach generates a proprietary deal flow (at a 0.13% annual conversion rate) that allows the company to avoid competitive auctions and brokers. James argues the European market offers a vast runway of private companies, often at lower multiples than in North America, while high barriers to entry like language, culture, and regulation deter competition.

James highlights Topicus’s superior financial characteristics, including the negative working capital profile afforded by upfront software subscriptions, which provides free financing for operations and acquisitions. He also contrasts its disciplined accounting—allocating <20% of purchase price to goodwill—with other acquirers who may use high goodwill allocations to engineer earnings. Topicus provides transparent shareholder reporting through its “Free Cash Flow Available to Shareholders” (FCFA2S) metric, which clearly breaks out the non-controlling interest (NCI) share. The company maintains management continuity, as it is led by Robin van Poelje, who founded the core TSS business in 2006.

James observes that the pace of capital deployment has accelerated, with over €700 million deployed in 2025 alone, nearly matching the €790 million total from the 2021-2024 period. This was driven by the strategic ~€500 million “marriage” with Asseco, a Polish “Topicus twin,” which opens up Eastern European markets. James notes the shares recently experienced a 25% drawdown, which he attributes to group-level noise at CSU rather than fundamental issues at Topicus. He argues Topicus may screen as more expensive than it is, as the benefits from 2025’s heavy M&A investments have yet to flow through, while the costs hit financials immediately. Furthermore, the FCFA2S ratio is steadily increasing as the NCI share declines, which should increase the NPV of future cash flows.

Disclaimer

European Investing Summit 2025 was held from October 28 to November 3, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Brad Hathaway of Far View Capital Management presented his investment thesis on Westwing Group (Germany: WEW) at European Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis Summary

Westwing is a European direct-to-consumer online home furnishings retailer operating in 22 countries. Founded in Germany in 2011, the company uses a content-led strategy to drive strong user engagement and cohort economics, with 80% of orders coming from repeat customers. It targets a premium “masstige” position with a primarily female customer base. Westwing is exiting a multi-year transformation that unified its commercial model, reduced costs, and migrated its backend to an external SaaS platform, creating a more scalable foundation.

Brad believes an opportunity exists as the industry begins a cyclical recovery from a post-COVID downturn. This downturn improved WEW’s competitive environment, as key online competitors like Made.com have liquidated and Wayfair has exited the German market. Westwing is positioned as a survivor ready to take share in an upturn. Furthermore, the company’s progress is currently obscured in its 2025 financials.

2025 results are artificially depressed, masking the transformation’s success. The company’s upgrade to a more premium, globalized product assortment creates a temporary headwind, resulting in flat revenue guidance (FY25: -4% to +2% yoy). Simultaneously, 2025 EBITDA margins (guided 6% to 8%) are hampered by ramp-up costs from an accelerated expansion into 10 new countries. Brad anticipates an inflection in 2026, driven by the scaling of these new markets and the continued growth of the high-margin “Westwing Collection” private label, which reached 65% of GMV in Q2 2025.

The long-tenured management team, led by CEO Andreas Hoerning and founder Delia Lachance, is long-term oriented, evidenced by multiple insider purchases. Capital allocation is a key strength. The company executed a tender offer in November 2024 — an unconventional move for a German company — and holds 9.9% of shares in Treasury. This shareholder-friendly approach is expected to continue once technical limitations on share retirement are resolved in 2026.

The shares recently traded at under €12. He sees downside protection at €9-€10, a valuation based on a 4x multiple of 2025 guided EBITDA (approx. €35M) and an 8% FCF yield, supported by a strong balance sheet with ~€50M in net cash. Conversely, Brad calculates an upside potential of ~€45 per share. This target is based on a 2028 scenario assuming a return to double-digit growth and >10% EBITDA margins, applying a 12x EBITDA multiple to ~€69M of EBITDA. This remains below the company’s mid-term aspiration for 15% EBITDA margins.

Disclaimer

European Investing Summit 2025 was held from October 28 to November 3, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Simon Caufield of SIM Limited presented his investment thesis on Barratt Redrow plc (UK: BTRW) at European Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis Summary

Barratt Redrow is the UK’s largest housebuilder, operating under three distinct brands: Barratt, David Wilson, and Redrow, which target first-time buyers, the mid-market, and the premium market, respectively. Simon highlights the company’s operational strengths, stemming from its scale and investment in off-site factory production for components like timber frames and bathroom pods. This approach enhances efficiency and lowers construction costs. The multi-brand strategy facilitates a wider customer appeal and a faster sales rate, which makes larger development sites viable for the company.

Simon emphasizes the conservative, cost-conscious culture, which is led by a CEO who was the former CFO. This culture prioritizes efficiency and ROI. A key operational differentiator for Barratt Redrow is its centralized land-buying process. Unlike peers who may allow regional divisions to make purchases, all land acquisition at Barratt is signed off by the CEO or CFO. Simon believes this centralized control prevents the company from overpaying for land, a common pitfall in the industry.

The core of Simon’s thesis rests on a market misunderstanding of UK housing shocks. The consensus view is that UK houses are unaffordable and that falling prices and volumes will lead to a drop in homebuilder earnings. Simon argues this view is both wrong and irrelevant. He believes it is “wrong” because the UK has a structural housing shortage and demand is typically deferred rather than destroyed. He argues it is “irrelevant” because of the industry’s unique operating model, which the market fails to appreciate.

Simon explains that UK builders hold 3-4 years of land as inventory. During a downturn, as volumes fall, they stop buying new land. This action causes OCF to increase as working capital is released. Simultaneously, land prices fall at a much faster rate than house prices. The company can then restart buying land at depressed prices, which feeds through to higher margins 3-4 years later. Simon notes that the 2022-2025 period saw a shock equivalent to 83% of the GFC, creating the same setup that led to a sharp recovery in earnings and the stock price after 2011. He believes sell-side analysts have missed this and that earnings upgrades are forthcoming.

Simon notes that the shares recently traded at a 10-year low, down over 50% from their 2020 high. He estimates a liquidation value of £12 billion, which is more than twice the recent market cap of £5.7 billion. This suggests the stock trades at approximately 47% of its liquidation value. This valuation is derived from building out the existing owned and optioned land bank, plus strategic plots already in local authority plans, and conservatively excludes the value of 224,000 other strategic plots and the brand itself.

Disclaimer

European Investing Summit 2025 was held from October 28 to November 3, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

José Antonio Larraz of Equam Capital presented his investment thesis on Domino’s Pizza Group plc (UK: DOM) at European Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis Summary

Domino’s Pizza Group is the exclusive master franchisee for the UK and Ireland. The company operates a highly asset-light, 100% franchised business model. DPG manages the central supply chain, including dough manufacturing and logistics, as well as national marketing. Franchisees, who are required to source all materials from DPG, run the individual stores. This structure results in low CapEx requirements, with maintenance CapEx below 1% of revenues, and a negative working capital cycle.

DPG holds a dominant position in the UK pizza delivery market with a 54% market share, making it more than 3.5 times the size of its nearest competitor. José highlighted that DPG is strengthening this leadership, having added over 90 stores in the past two years while its two largest branded competitors have seen a net reduction in their store counts. This scale provides DPG with durable competitive advantages in brand awareness, sourcing efficiencies, and the ability to optimize delivery times, which is a key service metric.

The company’s growth strategy is multi-faceted. The first leg focuses on maximizing revenues from the existing network by improving service, continuous product innovation, and the national rollout of a loyalty program designed to increase average order frequency from 4.3 to over 5.0 times per year. The second leg is expanding the store network in the UK, which remains underpenetrated (53k people/store) compared to markets like the US (28k). This expansion is targeting smaller towns and splitting existing territories. A third leg involves accelerating growth in Ireland, an even less penetrated market (85k people/store) with an opportunity for over 100 new locations.

DPG is also exploring further growth avenues, including leveraging its supply chain, franchisee network, and 13.5 million active customers to launch a second, non-pizza fast-food brand in the UK. The company is exploring international expansion, signaled by its 12.1% stake in Domino’s Pizza Poland. José noted the company’s strong FCF generation and commitment to shareholder returns, having distributed 460 million GBP via dividends and buybacks in the last four years, equivalent to 52% of its recent market capitalization.

According to José, the investment opportunity exists because a >50% share price decline, driven by a weak UK consumer environment that has temporarily stalled LFL sales growth, has disconnected the company’s valuation from its fundamentals. He views this slowdown as cyclical. The company’s shares recently traded at historical low multiples of less than 10x P/E and at a FCF yield of approximately 10%. This valuation represents a discount to comparable companies, despite DPG’s market leadership. The balance sheet remains solid with leverage at approximately 2.0x net debt/EBITDA.

Disclaimer

European Investing Summit 2025 was held from October 28 to November 3, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Brian Chingono of Verdad presented his investment thesis on European equities and SMCP (France: SMCP) at European Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis Summary

SMCP is a Parisian fashion holding company operating in the accessible luxury segment with a €485 million market cap. The company manages a global footprint of stores for its brands, including Sandro, Maje, and Claudie Pierlot. SMCP was previously owned by the LVMH-affiliated private equity firm L Catterton. The thesis sees upside potential driven by internal efficiency measures and an eventual recovery in discretionary spending.

The company’s stock appears depressed due to its exposure to consumer discretionary spending, which has been pressured by recent inflation and high interest rates. This specific headwind aligns with the broader consensus pessimism surrounding European equities, which have faced slowing growth, capital outflows, and geopolitical shocks. This environment has left corporate Europe, despite being healthy, trading at a steep discount to US peers.

The investment thesis rests on the view that this pessimism regarding SMCP is overdone. The company is executing efficiency measures and cost-cutting plans which are progressing as expected. Management is targeting adjusted EBIT margin expansion to 10% in 2H 2026, up from 7.1% in 1H 2025. This operational turnaround is stewarded by a capable CFO, a 15-year LVMH veteran who previously served as CFO of Givenchy.

The company exhibits healthy quality metrics, including a 35.6% gross profit to assets ratio. The balance sheet is also actively being deleveraged, with net debt reduced by 13% since December 2024 and 30% since June 2024. Beyond the operational turnaround, a potential upside catalyst exists from the eventual sale of a stake held by creditors of a former shareholder.

Reflecting the macro pressures and pessimism, the shares recently traded at low multiples. The stock was valued at 5.7x EV/EBITDA and 0.4x P/B. This valuation corresponds to a 17.7% FCF yield. This pricing exemplifies the opportunity in European micro-caps, which are trading at discounts to their own history and offer a compelling entry point for value-oriented investors.

Disclaimer

European Investing Summit 2025 is held from October 28-31, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Ole Søeberg of Nordic Investment Partners presented his investment thesis on Novo Nordisk (Denmark: NOVOB) at European Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis Summary

Ole analyzes the pharmaceutical industry as a potential “growth cluster,” driven by demographic tailwinds as an aging population increases healthcare spending. He notes that while this spending trend is unsustainable, it creates a large opportunity for drugs that promote a “good life” and reduce long-term costs. The presentation identifies GLP-1s as a key innovation in this area, with potential benefits far beyond their original diabetes and obesity applications, including cardiovascular, cancer suppression, and anti-depressant effects. This market is currently a “two-horse race” between Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO).

Novo Nordisk, a pioneer in the GLP-1 market with Ozempic and Wegovy, has “fallen out of bed” after its stock price declined 60% from its peak. The company lost its “pole position” to LLY after experiencing “short supply issues” just as LLY launched its Zepbound drug, which Ole notes is currently a “better drug” as an injectable. The market has since priced NVO for a low-growth future, essentially writing off its pipeline and viewing its potential upside, including MASH and Alzheimer’s treatments, as “birds on the roof.”

Ole highlights that this view may ignore NVO’s pipeline, which could “change the balance” in the race with LLY. NVO’s pill-based Cagrisema, with results expected late this year for a 2026 launch, appears “slightly better” than LLY’s offering based on comparative data. Furthermore, NVO’s Amycretin (due in 2029) “could also change the game.” The company is also undergoing a management reset, with a new CEO (Mads Dysted) and a new board focused on getting NVO “back on track.” Ole also views the hiring of a top sell-side analyst for IR as a positive step for improving the feedback loop to senior management.

The recent 60% stock price dive has compressed NVO’s valuation. The market appears to be pricing in a 2030 EPS of around 30 DKK, reflecting a “mature stable” business. However, if NVO’s growth forecasts are realized, EPS could be “much higher,” potentially 50+ DKK. Ole presents a scenario where, even on conservative 2028 EPS estimates of 28 DKK, a P/E multiple of 18x (below NVO’s long-term average of 22.5x) would imply a 500 DKK stock price in 2.5 years. With dividends, this suggests a potential 15% CAGR. While LLY has a higher growth profile, Ole notes NVO “looks more interesting” on recent valuation terms, recently yielding just under 4%.

Disclaimer

European Investing Summit 2025 is held from October 28-31, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Shawn Kravetz of Esplanade Capital presented his investment thesis on Polaris Renewable Energy (Canada: PIF) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis Summary

Polaris Renewable Energy is a Canadian renewable energy company focused on owning, operating, developing, and acquiring projects primarily in Latin America and the Caribbean. Headquartered in Toronto, Polaris recently had a market capitalization of C$253 million (US$185 million) and net debt of around US$127 million. Despite a track record characterized by modest overpromising and occasional underdelivery, the business remains compelling due to its substantial and durable cash generation. Polaris yields a notable ~7% dividend, supported by strong free cash flow with a payout ratio of ~45%.

Polaris’s valuation appears deeply discounted compared to its peers, trading at just 5.4x estimated 2025 EV/EBITDA. In contrast, comparable renewable energy companies like Boralex, Brookfield Renewable, Clearway Energy, Innergex, and Northland Power trade at average multiples of ~12x EV/EBITDA. Polaris’s discounted valuation is noteworthy, considering its robust cash generation, with a free cash flow yield recently estimated at 15.7% after deducting debt repayments.

Operationally, Polaris’s results have shown relative stability with occasional step-changes, reflected in adjusted EBITDA progressing from US$43.8 million in 2021 to a projected US$58 million in 2025. While its stock price has experienced significant volatility, it has essentially traded sideways over the past five years. This stagnant stock performance masks the underlying durability of Polaris’s cash flows and its potential growth catalysts.

Looking ahead, Polaris has multiple pathways to unlock shareholder value. A significant potential catalyst is its Puerto Rico battery storage project, representing up to US$50 million in net investment with expected EBITDA returns near 30% annually for twenty years, translating into an unlevered internal rate of return exceeding 20%. Additionally, organic growth initiatives or selective acquisitions could further enhance its value proposition. Should the valuation gap persist, strategic alternatives including a potential sale could come into play, further underpinning the attractiveness of the stock at recent valuation levels.

In sum, Polaris Renewable Energy offers investors a stable business model with meaningful optionality. Its strong cash flow, deeply discounted valuation, and clear strategic pathways position the company as an attractive opportunity, presenting multiple routes to potential upside over the next two years.

Disclaimer

Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025 was held from June 24 through July 9, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Clement Loh of Lion Rock Partners presented his in-depth investment thesis on Kadokawa Corporation (Japan: 9468) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis Summary

Kadokawa is a leading Japanese entertainment conglomerate with diversified operations spanning publishing, film and TV production, video games development, and digital content services. Founded in 1945, Kadokawa has evolved from a traditional publishing house into a fully integrated entertainment company, capitalizing on its extensive intellectual property (IP) portfolio, which includes manga, light novels, anime, and films. Its strategic advantage lies in its vertical integration, allowing it to effectively monetize content across multiple platforms and channels, driving a broad and robust revenue stream.

The company is uniquely positioned to benefit from increasing global demand for Japanese content, supported by its strong IP assets and cross-media monetization strategy. Kadokawa’s IP is particularly appealing due to its complex storylines, detailed world-building, and visually distinctive art styles, all of which have universal appeal and strong international growth potential. With the Japanese government setting ambitious targets for cultural exports — aiming for ¥10 trillion by 2028 and ¥20 trillion by 2033 — Kadokawa is well-placed to capture a significant portion of this growth through expanded global distribution channels and strategic partnerships with major streaming platforms like Netflix.

Kadokawa is undergoing a digital transformation, shifting towards higher-margin digital platforms and recurring revenue streams, while modernizing its existing digital offerings. Initiatives such as enhanced user analytics, platform redesign, multi-language support, and direct e-commerce integration are expected to significantly enhance user experience and expand international reach. This transition is anticipated to drive long-term margin improvements and sustained revenue growth.

Kadokawa shares recently traded at a valuation of approximately 25.4x earnings and 12.3x EV/EBITDA, reflecting growth expectations but still appearing attractive relative to peers. A sum-of-the-parts valuation and discounted cash flow analysis suggest meaningful upside potential. Moreover, Kadokawa’s strategic value as an acquisition target for global media conglomerates and technology companies adds another layer of potential value realization. Notably, Sony previously acquired a 10% stake, emphasizing Kadokawa’s strategic importance in the broader global entertainment landscape.

However, investors must consider several risk factors, including cybersecurity vulnerabilities highlighted by a past hacking incident, international IP protection challenges, potential capital misallocation risks exemplified by the costly cultural museum project, and execution risk inherent in international expansion initiatives. Nonetheless, the combination of robust IP assets, global content demand growth, ongoing digital transformation, and potential strategic interest from larger entities creates a compelling investment proposition with substantial upside.

Disclaimer

Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025 was held from June 24 through July 9, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Todd Wenning of KNA Capital Management presented his investment thesis on Howden Joinery (UK: HWDN) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis Summary

Howden Joinery is an idiosyncratic, best-in-class UK-based supplier of kitchens and joinery with a powerful and defensible economic moat built on a unique, trade-only business model. The company operates in the GBP 11 billion UK kitchen market, focusing exclusively on supporting small, independent builders and installers (“tradespeople”). The core of the investment thesis is that the market underappreciates the strength and resilience of Howdens’ interconnected competitive advantages, which have allowed it to consistently gain market share and generate attractive returns in a cyclical industry. The company’s culture, growth avenues, and shareholder-friendly management team are not fully reflected in its current valuation.

The company’s moat is multi-faceted, stemming from a business model designed to make its trade customers more successful. The cornerstone is a decentralized network of over 870 depots, which are run as independent businesses by empowered local managers. These managers are highly incentivized, earning a share of their depot’s profits, which fosters an entrepreneurial culture and results in extremely low manager turnover. This dense depot network creates powerful network effects and logistical advantages, ensuring product is always in stock and close to job sites. This reliability, combined with services like free kitchen design and short-term credit, creates high switching costs for tradespeople, whose livelihoods depend on the speed and efficiency Howdens provides. These advantages are reinforced by low-cost production, achieved through scale and vertical integration.

Beyond its entrenched UK position, Howdens has multiple levers for long-term growth. The company sees a clear path to expanding its UK depot footprint to approximately 1,000 locations while also updating its existing estate to improve efficiency and customer experience. Growth will also be driven by moving upmarket into higher-priced kitchen ranges and expanding into adjacent product categories, such as the recently launched fitted bedroom line, which leverages the company’s core competency in cabinetry and its existing distribution network. While the international expansion into France has been challenging, it is being reset with a more focused strategy, and the success in Ireland demonstrates the model’s portability. Further European expansion represents a significant long-term optionality that appears to be undervalued by the market.

Led by a thoughtful management team that perpetuates a “founder’s pedigree” and a stakeholder-focused culture, Howdens has demonstrated a commitment to being “worthwhile for all concerned.” This approach supports the anti-fragility of the business. At a recent price of GBP 8.74, the market appears to be overly focused on near-term cyclical headwinds in the UK housing market and the mixed results in France. The valuation fails to fully credit the quality of the core business, its flywheel-like characteristics, and the multiple paths to future value creation. The base case suggests a value of GBP 12 per share, indicating that significant upside exists as the market recognizes the durability and growth potential of this unique enterprise.

Disclaimer

Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025 was held from June 24 through July 9, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Aman Budhwar of PenderFund Capital Management presented his investment thesis on Addus HomeCare (Nasdaq: ADUS) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis Summary

Addus HomeCare is a well-positioned provider of home-based care services, serving approximately 45,600 patients across 23 U.S. states. Founded in 1979 and managed by the current team since 2016, Addus specializes in personal care, hospice, and home health segments. The company benefits from favorable long-term trends, including an aging U.S. population, increasing preference for cost-effective home-based care solutions, and a healthcare landscape shifting towards managed care, which favors larger, experienced providers. With 84% of its revenues from government programs, Addus enjoys a non-discretionary, stable demand profile.

The company’s personal care segment, constituting roughly three-quarters of total revenue and profit, has consistently delivered high-single-digit organic growth, supported by favorable pricing dynamics and margin improvements. Recent acquisitions, including the notable $350 million purchase of Gentiva’s personal care business at 6.5x EV/EBITDA multiple, have further solidified Addus’s market-leading position. While hospice operations experienced temporary disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic, a recovery is underway, supported by leadership enhancements and increasing integration with the home health segment.

Despite regulatory concerns around Medicaid reimbursements and healthcare policy, Addus faces limited exposure to major risks, as management expects regulatory changes to be either neutral or beneficial. Its geographically diversified footprint further mitigates potential state-level funding risks. Operational efficiency, disciplined capital allocation, and accretive acquisitions underpin its sustainable growth strategy.

From a valuation perspective, Addus recently traded at approximately $115 per share, implying substantial upside to an estimated intrinsic value of $147 per share, based on a discounted cash flow analysis incorporating conservative mid-single-digit growth assumptions and margin expansion driven by operating leverage. With additional potential from prudent acquisitions and its strong defensive earnings profile, Addus represents an appealing investment opportunity with a clear growth runway and manageable risk profile.

Disclaimer

Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025 was held from June 24 through July 9, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Jim and Abigail Zimmerman of Lowell Capital Management presented their in-depth investment thesis on Build-A-Bear Workshop (NYSE: BBW) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis Summary

Build-A-Bear Workshop is a multi-channel retailer of plush animals and related products operating across the United States, Canada, the U.K., Ireland, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Direct-to-Consumer, Commercial, and International Franchising, with sales through branded stores, e-commerce, and third-party platforms.

BBW has strategically transitioned from a traditional mall-based retailer to a more diversified, capital-light, brand-centric business model focused on direct-to-consumer, digital content, licensing, and media. BBW targets high-growth areas like gifting, entertainment, and lifestyle through partnerships, while exiting underperforming stores and reallocating capital to franchising, collab stores, and branded content.

BBW has several characteristics Jim and Abby like, including (1) a highly resilient business model with deep customer loyalty and a unique experiential retail format that is difficult to replicate, (2) a highly cash-generative business with low capital expenditure needs, (3) a high-ROIC business model supported by asset-light operating structure and disciplined capital allocation, (4) a strong focus on higher value-added experiences and branded offerings with longer-term and “stickier” customer relationships, (5) an attractive valuation trading at about ~7x adjusted EBITDA and a high single-digit free cash flow yield, (6) a high conversion of adjusted EBITDA into cash from operations (7) an end-market that is growing sustainably over the long term, (8) a record of strong organic growth over several years, (9) a disciplined management team focused on driving organic growth through capital-light partnerships, omni-channel initiatives, and digital expansion, and (10) a long-term strategy to grow sales and EBITDA.

Jim and Abby believe BBW can achieve adjusted EBITDA of $100+ million by 2028, and the highly cash-generative business model can trade for 10x adjusted EBITDA with zero net debt for a market cap of about $1 billion. This could drive share repurchases, reducing shares to around 11 million by 2028, with a share price of $90 or higher versus the recent price of about $50 per share. Further, BBW’s strategic brand partnerships, capital-light operating model, and recurring revenue streams could make it an attractive target for a strategic acquirer or financial sponsor.

Disclaimer

Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025 was held from June 24 through July 9, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Rodrigo Lopez Buenrostro of KUE Capital presented his investment thesis on ASML (Netherlands: ASML, NYSE: ASML) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis Summary

ASML, the dominant supplier in the semiconductor lithography equipment industry, recently traded at €680 per share, reflecting a market capitalization of approximately €270 billion and an enterprise value of €260 billion. ASML has a monopoly on EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography machines, a critical technology required for manufacturing advanced semiconductor chips. The company’s market position is reinforced by high entry barriers and proprietary technologies, effectively insulating it from competitive threats.

The core investment thesis revolves around the structural growth of global semiconductor demand, propelled by advancements in computing, data centers, AI technologies, and an expanding global internet infrastructure. ASML’s lithography machines are central to enabling ongoing progress in chip miniaturization, directly underpinning Moore’s Law. The company’s unique technological leadership, particularly in EUV and DUV machines, positions it strategically to capture disproportionate economic benefits as the industry continues its upward trajectory.

ASML’s strong competitive moat is amplified through its installed base management, leveraging a high-margin service and upgrade business driven by continuous innovation and customer lock-in. Additionally, ASML strategically reinvests about 100% of its net income into its business, maintaining a robust R\&D pipeline aimed at further technological advances, such as the development of Hyper-NA machines, which solidify its competitive edge and growth trajectory.

Despite its robust competitive positioning and substantial reinvestment in growth initiatives, ASML faces risks including the potential slowing of Moore’s Law, the concentrated customer base for high-NA technology, possible technological disruptions, and geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains and trade dynamics. However, the company’s prudent risk management and strategic patience in the face of uncertainties provide a strong buffer. With high returns on new investments (approximately 20% RONE) and a compelling valuation, ASML represents a high-quality investment, though investors may prefer to wait for a more favorable entry price closer to €600 per share.

Disclaimer

Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025 was held from June 24 through July 9, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Stefan Ćulibrk of Highway One Asset Management presented his investment thesis on Ryanair (Ireland: RYA, US: RYAAY) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis Summary

Ryanair stands out as a best-in-class, low-cost airline that has managed exceptional growth and capital efficiency in an industry known for intense capital expenditures and high leverage. Unlike its peers — such as IAG, Lufthansa, and Air France-KLM, which have significantly increased share counts and accumulated substantial debt to finance fleet expansions — Ryanair has uniquely reduced its share count and maintained a net cash position, recently boasting a negative net debt/EBITDA ratio of -0.4x, indicative of its robust balance sheet strength.

Ryanair’s disciplined, low-cost model benefits from a combination of factors, including complete aircraft ownership, efficient operational management, and a relentless focus on cost control driven by its fanatically committed owner-operator culture. This operational model has enabled Ryanair to achieve consistently superior ROCE, outperforming competitors. Furthermore, Ryanair’s ability to sustainably charge higher average fares while maintaining low costs positions the company advantageously amid rising European emissions trading scheme (ETS) costs, which disproportionately affect rivals.

The competitive landscape further amplifies Ryanair’s strategic advantage. With Boeing and Airbus fully booked for the next decade, competitors are constrained from swiftly expanding their fleets. At the same time, competitors like Wizz Air are incrementally shifting away from Europe, reducing direct competitive pressures within Ryanair’s core market. Ryanair is expected to capitalize on this environment, significantly increasing net profit per passenger beyond previous peaks, supported by stable and growing market share in the European airline market.

Despite industry nuisances and macroeconomic risks — including oil price volatility, economic cycles, and environmental regulations — Ryanair’s resilient operating model, strong financial position, and pricing power make it an attractive investment, particularly in a sector otherwise characterized by significant capital intensity and cyclical challenges.

Disclaimer

Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025 was held from June 24 through July 9, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Andrew Macken of Montaka Global Investments presented his investment thesis on Floor & Decor Holdings (NYSE: FND) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis Summary

Floor & Decor is a specialized US retailer of hard surface flooring products, offering approximately 4,400 SKUs per store across 254 large-format locations. The company was founded in 2000 and operates a differentiated business model characterized by extensive in-stock inventory, low prices, and high service levels. Led by CEO Tom Taylor, a seasoned executive formerly of Home Depot, Floor & Decor leverages a highly efficient retail model that emphasizes cost efficiency, simplicity, high inventory turnover, and significant scale advantages.

The US housing market is currently in a cyclical trough, marked by historically low home sales and significant pent-up demand, suggesting robust future growth in home improvement expenditure. Given the median age of US homes is now around 44 years, demand for renovation and maintenance remains structurally high. This scenario positions Floor & Decor favorably within the substantial \$40 billion annual US hard surface flooring market, which itself is gaining structural share from carpet flooring.

Floor & Decor employs a potent economic flywheel that strengthens its market position and economic moats over time. The company’s specialization in flooring enables scale economies, leading to advantageous procurement costs and efficient operations. These benefits translate into lower prices and improved customer experience, which in turn drive market share gains and reinforce the competitive advantage. This cycle has significantly grown Floor & Decor’s market share over recent years and is expected to sustain continued market leadership and profitable expansion.

Despite the company’s recent robust expansion, Floor & Decor’s current earnings appear depressed relative to their normalized potential, largely due to a younger store base and cyclically low US housing market activity. As the housing market rebounds and newer stores mature into profitability, a meaningful margin expansion is anticipated. The company recently traded at an enterprise value of approximately $10 billion, presenting a compelling opportunity given the substantial earnings growth trajectory implied by management’s store rollout plan and the industry’s long-term tailwinds. Floor & Decor represents a high-quality, advantaged business poised for sustained earnings growth and market leadership in the years ahead.

Disclaimer

Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025 was held from June 24 through July 9, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Diego Grove of LRZ Capital presented his investment thesis on LPL Financial (US: LPLA) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis Summary

LPL Financial is the largest independent broker-dealer in the United States, providing essential front-, middle-, and back-office support to approximately 29,500 advisors managing over $1.8 trillion in assets. Formed from the merger of Linsco and Private Ledger in 1989, the company serves the expansive $31 trillion U.S. advisor-mediated marketplace. LPL’s scalable business model, characterized by robust incremental returns, has allowed the company to capture significant market share from competitors, with notable penetration in both independent and institutional channels. The firm recently traded at a market capitalization of approximately $29 billion with net debt of $5 billion.

LPL operates an asset-light model with a favorable financial profile, characterized by EBITDA margins nearing 47%, high 30s return on equity, and incremental ROIC ranging from mid-20s to mid-30s. Revenue growth is underpinned by organic growth of 7%-13%, market-driven returns of 2%-4%, and incremental contributions from strategic M&A or share buybacks. This model has enabled mid-to-high teens EPS CAGR, supported by a historically high retention rate of 98%+. Despite significant past performance — including an eight-fold increase in stock value over the past decade — the company remains poised for growth, especially given its undermonetized gross profit ROA of just 29 basis points.

The strategic leadership of CEO Rich Steinmeier and CFO Matt Audette has substantially transformed LPL’s operations, emphasizing capital efficiency, prudent acquisitions, and operational leverage. Recent strategic acquisitions such as Commonwealth Financial Network and prudent expansions in the enterprise channel underscore management’s disciplined capital allocation framework. These acquisitions not only expand the firm’s asset base but also solidify its competitive advantage through economies of scale, improved compliance capabilities, and enhanced advisor retention.

A critical variant view articulated in the thesis is that LPL Financial’s superior business model and competitive positioning within the advisor-mediated space remain significantly undervalued. Market concerns, primarily revolving around cash sorting and regulatory scrutiny on client cash balances, appear overstated. The management’s proactive measures and strong treasury management capabilities significantly mitigate these risks. Furthermore, LPL’s diversified revenue streams and fee-based advisory services continue to demonstrate resilience, presenting potential valuation upside.

Given its compelling earnings trajectory, prudent management, and robust competitive moat, LPL Financial offers an attractive risk-reward profile. Management’s clearly articulated earnings growth algorithm forecasts EPS growth of 11%-27%, with potential for higher valuation multiples. Conservatively projected, investors may achieve a ~15% IRR over the next five years, assuming reasonable exit multiples. Thus, LPL Financial represents a high-quality, high-convexity investment opportunity benefiting from sustained structural tailwinds in the independent advisor space.

Disclaimer

Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025 was held from June 24 through July 9, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Chris Crawford of Crawford Fund Management presented his investment thesis on Boston Beer Company (NYSE: SAM) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis Summary

Boston Beer Company is the largest American-owned alcoholic beverage company, holding leading positions across several niche segments including craft beer, hard cider, flavored malt beverages, and hard seltzers. After enduring significant headwinds following the burst of the hard seltzer bubble in recent years, Boston Beer now presents compelling turnaround potential. The company’s founder-led management team has demonstrated a long history of effective innovation and successful operational recoveries, positioning the firm well to capitalize on emerging growth drivers.

Recent product launches, notably Sun Cruiser and Sam’s American Light, have shown promising early traction. Sun Cruiser, positioned against High Noon in the vodka tea segment, has successfully doubled its market share since its initial launch. Sam’s American Light, launched nationwide in 2025, is strategically aimed at the massive mainstream light beer segment, potentially extending brand equity beyond traditional craft beer boundaries. Although the growth potential of another product, Hard Mountain Dew (a collaboration with Pepsi), is less certain, these new product introductions significantly enhance the company’s growth profile.

Boston Beer’s competitive advantages are underpinned by robust brand recognition, a resilient nationwide distribution network, regulatory barriers to entry, and significant economies of scale. Despite these strengths, periodic market disruptions — such as the craft beer and hard seltzer downturns — have historically impacted its trajectory. Nevertheless, these disruptions have been followed consistently by recoveries and renewed growth, demonstrating the company’s resilience and adaptability.

Financially, Boston Beer maintains a debt-free balance sheet, allowing significant flexibility for internal investments and opportunistic repurchases of undervalued shares. Management’s disciplined share repurchase strategy, buying back stock at substantial discounts to intrinsic value, further underpins shareholder value creation. Founder Jim Koch, who owns 20% of the company, remains actively involved and deeply committed to long-term strategic growth, underscoring a strong alignment of interests with shareholders.

Recently, Boston Beer shares traded significantly below intrinsic value estimates, down approximately 85% from their 2021 highs. Chris’s valuation suggests substantial upside potential, assigning a blended appraisal value of $302 per share, reflecting a 60% base case scenario. Given the embedded optionality of Boston Beer’s innovative R&D pipeline, robust balance sheet, and historical valuation ranges, upside scenarios could be considerably higher, positioning the company as both an undervalued turnaround story and a potential acquisition target.

Disclaimer

Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025 was held from June 24 through July 9, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Julio Utrera of Southeastern Asset Management presented his investment thesis on Allfunds (Netherlands: ALLFG) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis Summary

Allfunds is a competitively advantaged, founder-operated leader in the global fund distribution market, presenting a compelling value proposition through its asset-light, high cash flow-generating business model. With approximately €1.5 trillion in assets under administration (AUA), Allfunds commands a leading global position, benefitting significantly from strong network effects, high client stickiness, and substantial brand equity. The company boasts virtually 100% renewal rates from both distributors and fund providers, underscoring the reliability and essential nature of its offering.

Despite its robust fundamentals, Allfunds recently traded at a meaningful discount, primarily due to a shareholder overhang stemming from private equity interests seeking exit opportunities. This has created a temporary mispricing, offering investors an attractive entry point. A clear valuation floor was established by a hostile takeover attempt at €8.75 per share in early 2023, significantly above the current trading levels of around €6 per share.

Financially, Allfunds is projected to generate €647 million in revenue and €420 million EBITDA in 2025, reflecting an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.8x and a free cash flow yield of approximately 8.1%. Management is highly aligned with minority shareholders, evidenced by consecutive share buybacks initiated since 2023. Given its sustained double-digit value growth and strategic positioning as a misunderstood infrastructure play rather than an asset manager, the stock offers upside potential exceeding 50% from recent trading levels.

While sensitivity to market movements presents some risk, Allfunds continues to diversify its revenue streams, notably through growth in subscription-based and alternative product offerings. Regulatory risks and client concentration concerns are mitigated through proactive contractual strategies, further reinforcing the attractiveness of the investment thesis.

Disclaimer

Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025 was held from June 24 through July 9, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Dave Sather of Sather Financial Group presented his in-depth investment thesis on Boeing (NYSE: BA) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis Summary

Boeing presents a classic turnaround opportunity, driven by recent managerial and strategic changes aimed at addressing significant cultural and operational issues stemming from previous leadership. Since 2018, Boeing faced considerable setbacks due to poor decision-making, excessive financial focus, and deteriorating machinist relations, culminating in major losses and substantial cash burn. Notably, Boeing delivered an average of only 370 aircraft annually post-2018, sharply below its peak of 806 deliveries in 2018. This turbulence, combined with struggles in its defense business, led Boeing to accumulate approximately $36 billion in negative free cash flow over the period.

However, Boeing’s core competitive advantages remain robust, reinforced by its entrenched duopoly position with Airbus in commercial aviation. The significant backlog of over 6,000 aircraft, strong switching costs for airlines, regulatory barriers, and massive scale needed for R\&D and manufacturing underscore Boeing’s intact moat. New CEO Kelly Ortberg, appointed in August 2024 with an engineering rather than financial background, marks a deliberate shift towards quality and operational excellence. Boeing is also set to enhance control over its supply chain with the planned acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems in mid-2025.

The path to recovery hinges on Boeing’s ability to incrementally ramp up production—particularly the critical 737 MAX—and stabilize its defense segment by renegotiating challenging contracts and improving execution. Boeing recently traded at approximately $165 per share, reflecting cautious market sentiment given its recent history. Yet, a successful turnaround could lead to a substantial valuation rerating, with potential intrinsic values ranging between $250 (base scenario) and $300 (bull scenario) per share by the early 2030s, supported by normalized free cash flow and profitability metrics.

Disclaimer

Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025 was held from June 24 through July 9, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Arvind Mallik and Jonathon Fite of KMF Investments presented their thesis on Topgolf Callaway Brands (US: MODG) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis Summary

Topgolf Callaway is a market leader uniquely positioned within the evolving “Modern Golf” ecosystem. Originally founded in 1982, the company today dominates with top-tier brands across golf equipment (Callaway, Odyssey), apparel (TravisMathew, Jack Wolfskin), and experiential venues (Topgolf). Topgolf, which now accounts for 41% of revenue, offers compelling unit economics, delivering 50-60% cash returns and significant venue growth potential, targeting expansion from approximately 100 venues today to over 200 in the future.

Despite impressive underlying economics, MODG shares recently traded at depressed levels around $8 due to a cyclical downturn affecting consumer discretionary spending, especially impacting same-venue sales at Topgolf. Nevertheless, external rankings continue to highlight Topgolf’s strong competitive positioning, notably in categories like fun, atmosphere, and food & beverage, underscoring its sustainable moat. Additionally, Callaway’s golf equipment segment maintains oligopolistic dominance with a market-leading 35% share, benefiting from scale-driven R&D advantages and strong consumer loyalty.

Accounting complexities tied to Topgolf’s REIT financing have obscured MODG’s financials, making the company appear optically more leveraged than reality suggests. Properly adjusting for these nuances, MODG is valued conservatively at approximately $15 per share based on adjusted free cash flow, while a sum-of-the-parts analysis yields a valuation exceeding $23 per share. Catalysts expected to unlock this value include the planned separation of the Topgolf and Callaway segments, an operational rebound at venues, and moderating macroeconomic headwinds. Recent insider buying further supports confidence in the underlying value, suggesting substantial upside potential from current trading levels.

Disclaimer

Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025 was held from June 24 through July 9, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Kyle Campbell of Greenhaven Road Capital presented his investment thesis on Louisiana-Pacific (US: NPX) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis Summary

Louisiana-Pacific presents a compelling investment opportunity as it transitions from a commodity-driven manufacturer to a high-margin, value-added building materials leader and is uniquely positioned to capitalize on secular housing tailwinds and operational transformation. The company’s strategic shift — converting commodity OSB mills to premium siding production and expanding its portfolio of value-added OSB products — has already driven value-add OSB from 32% to 52% of total volume over the past decade, with further growth expected.

LPX’s siding segment, anchored by the LP SmartSide and ExpertFinish brands, is a margin expansion story and is set to play out after recent capacity expansions, with research indicating segment EBITDA margins should reach or exceed 35%. The OSB business, historically cyclical, is becoming more resilient and profitable as value-added products take share, reducing exposure to commodity price swings.

LPX’s disciplined capital allocation — prioritizing high-ROI organic investments, aggressive share repurchases, and dividend growth — demonstrates strong shareholder alignment. With robust competitive moats in supply chain exclusivity, product installation efficiency, and technical sales expertise, LPX is well-insulated from new entrants. The macro backdrop of persistent U.S. housing underbuilding acts as a powerful demand catalyst, likely to overpower short-term interest rate concerns.

Disclaimer

Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025 was held from June 24 through July 9, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Eric DeLamarter and Brandon Carnovale of Half Moon Capital presented their investment thesis on Lyft (Nasdaq: LYFT) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025.

Thesis Summary

Lyft is gaining market share following the implementation of various initiatives by its newer CEO, David Risher. Over the last year, Lyft has emerged as a price winner with superior ETAs. Risher has led a successful turnaround to stabilize US Mobility and now has the foundation to expand into new services and geographies.

Eric and Brandon expect Lyft will win a Waymo partnership in the nearer term or be acquired by Amazon.

LYFT’s valuation discounts these favorable developments and assumes a significant risk of disintermediation. However, Eric and Brandon see autonomous vehicle companies pursuing a partnership approach, which would be net beneficial to Lyft.

The above events, among other catalysts, should result in upside for the stock.

Disclaimer

Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025 was held from June 24 through July 9, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Naveen Chandramohan of Itus Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Piramal Pharma (India: PPLPHARMA) at Asian Investing Summit 2025, held from April 8-11.

Thesis Summary

Piramal Pharma is strategically positioned for long-term growth, leveraging its strong foothold in the Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization (CDMO) space, particularly in Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADCs), which is expected to see a significant market expansion.

The company has invested in capacity expansion, including a 70% increase at its Grangemouth facility, and is expanding its sterile injectables facility in Kentucky, strengthening its ability to serve the growing global demand.

With a dominant position in Sevoflurane in the U.S. and plans for geographic expansion, Piramal Pharma also aims to scale its high-margin Indian Consumer Healthcare business.

The potential to generate robust EBITDA growth — forecasted to reach ₹2200 crore by FY27 and ₹3800 crore by FY30 — along with a focus on reducing debt, positions Piramal Pharma as an attractive investment opportunity, despite risks associated with regulatory pressures and high product concentration.

Disclaimer

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Rahul Saraogi of Atyant Capital Advisors presented his investment thesis on Jupiter Wagons Limited (India: JWL) at Asian Investing Summit 2025, held from April 8-11.

Thesis Summary

Jupiter Wagons is India’s largest rail freight car manufacturer, operating in an oligopolistic market with significant barriers to entry due to RDSO certification requirements. The company is a key beneficiary of India’s accelerating shift from road to rail freight, supported by long-term policy tailwinds and electrification advantages. Beyond railcars, JWL has expanded into brakes, truck bodies, containers, EVs, and is now rapidly growing its railway wheels business. This diversification, paired with strong execution and robust demand, positions the company for sustained multi-decade growth.

The case for JWL is framed around both business quality and macroeconomic relevance. With road freight still accounting for 70% of India’s cargo transport and relying heavily on imported oil, rail offers a more sustainable, cost-efficient, and domestically powered alternative. Freight growth is closely tied to GDP, and JWL stands to gain as the broader economy expands and global supply chains continue to realign toward India. Despite being in a sector often overlooked by global investors, Jupiter Wagons enjoys pricing power, strong demand visibility, and the opportunity to consolidate market leadership in a highly regulated industry.

JWL is led by Vivek and Vikash Lohia, second-generation entrepreneurs with Western educations and a focus on governance and capital stewardship. The business is low in working capital intensity, generates ample free cash flow, and maintains low leverage. Capital allocation has been consistently prudent, driving both margin expansion and high returns on capital. The company reported a 28% RoE, $63 million in net profit on $640 million in revenue, and recently traded at 29x earnings — valuation levels that are justified given its dominant positioning and long growth runway.

While the broader Indian market has experienced volatility since mid-2024, Rahul sees this as an opportune moment to initiate or add to positions in structurally advantaged businesses like Jupiter Wagons. The secular growth thesis remains intact, and the current pullback offers an attractive entry point into a capital-efficient industry leader with years of expansion ahead. As rail continues to gain modal share and JWL leverages its scale and execution, the company is likely to command a premium multiple over time.

Disclaimer

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Florian Weidinger of Santa Lucia Asset Management presented his investment thesis on Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co. Ltd. (HK: 1157) at Asian Investing Summit 2025, held from April 8-11.

Thesis Summary

Zoomlion is a Hunan-based SOE and a dominant player in China’s construction machinery sector, recently trading at 8.9x FY25E earnings with a 6.1% dividend yield. Despite its association with the struggling domestic real estate sector, the business is increasingly diversified, both geographically and across equipment categories. The company’s overseas operations—where gross margins are materially higher—are expanding rapidly, now supported by a structural mix shift into aerial work platforms, earth-moving, mining, and agricultural machinery. Zoomlion’s foreign sales are still at an early stage, but with only 10% global market share, the company sees significant headroom in Belt and Road countries, as well as emerging markets in Europe and South America.

The investment thesis is anchored by multiple variant views on China. First, SOEs like Zoomlion, once seen as value traps, are undergoing structural reform. Incentives have shifted from asset hoarding to return optimization, leading to better capital allocation, dividends, and buybacks. Zoomlion is 15% owned by management and insiders—including through ESOPs—while the Hunan government retains a 14.5% stake. This alignment is reinforced by corporate actions: in October 2024, the company announced intentions to buy back H-shares, providing additional shareholder support.

Second, Zoomlion is a direct beneficiary of narrowing valuation gaps between its Hong Kong-listed H-shares and the more expensive Shanghai-listed A-shares. With a 32% A-H discount, the H-shares provide a margin of safety, and increasing Southbound interest—Chinese investors using Hong Kong’s Connect program to buy local equities—offers a catalyst for re-rating. Southbound Connect ownership of Zoomlion’s H-shares rose from 9% in June 2023 to nearly 29% by March 2025, reflecting growing domestic investor confidence in its international prospects and governance reform.

Finally, this is a business that’s being overlooked due to stale narratives. While domestic construction demand has weakened, replacement demand, policy moderation, and a sizable installed base offer downside protection. With foreign revenue ramping up, a structurally improving mix, and strong insider ownership, Zoomlion offers an underappreciated way to participate in both SOE reform and China’s shifting global industrial footprint. Investors are getting paid to wait through an above-market dividend and potential for valuation convergence, making Zoomlion a classic value play with meaningful optionality and multiple paths to upside.

Disclaimer

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Jiro Yasu, Patrick Rial, and Jeff Musial of Varecs Partners presented their investment thesis on Alphapolis (Japan: 9467) at Asian Investing Summit 2025, held from April 8-11.

Thesis Summary

Alphapolis is a small-cap Japanese content company operating in the high-growth manga and anime sectors, two of Japan’s most culturally significant and globally expanding creative exports. The company has developed a distinctive content generation model by harnessing a user-generated content (UGC) platform to source successful manga series, which are later published and adapted into anime. This approach produces a hit rate far superior to traditional publishing models and enables Alphapolis to operate with gross margins of 73%, operating margins of 22%, and a return on invested capital of 33%. Over the past five years, Alphapolis has grown revenue and EBIT at CAGRs of 16% and 11%, respectively, with manga sales now accounting for 74% of total revenue, up from just 24% in 2014.

Alphapolis’s growth trajectory is underpinned by two structural tailwinds. First, the global manga and anime markets — estimated at $15 billion and $22 billion, respectively — have been compounding at high-single to double-digit rates, especially overseas, where anime viewership among Gen Z in markets like the U.S. has surged. Second, as Japanese content assets remain scarce and consolidation intensifies, Alphapolis stands out as a rare, undervalued pure-play in the space. With the success of its anime titles such as *Gate* and *Moonlit Fantasy*, the company is scaling production, with five new series in development and early monetization of related IP through licensing and merchandise.

The business model is capital-light and highly scalable. Alphapolis serves as a publisher, producer, and partial investor in anime productions, earning royalties and downstream revenue from streaming rights and merchandise. Its unique UGC-driven content pipeline, which converts digital light novels into manga and then anime, has enabled it to systematically identify hits with significantly reduced risk and cost. The success of this approach has been demonstrated by sales surges following anime releases and a deepening library of monetizable IP. Moreover, digital distribution, now dominant across the manga industry, has dramatically improved profitability and reduced return rates.

Alphapolis recently traded at 19x forward P/E (14x ex-cash) and just 8x EV/EBIT, well below global and domestic peers. A conservative DCF model implies intrinsic value of ¥54 billion versus a recent market cap of ¥37.5 billion, suggesting 44% upside. With scarcity value, global growth drivers, a proven content monetization engine, and optionality in new revenue streams like gaming and licensing, Alphapolis offers an asymmetric opportunity in one of Japan’s most dynamic creative industries.

Disclaimer

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Kimi Venkataraman and Sidd Thomas of India Intrinsic Value Consultants presented their investment thesis on UTI Asset Management Company (India: UTIAMC) at Asian Investing Summit 2025, held from April 8-11.

Thesis Summary

UTI Asset Management is one of India’s oldest and most respected names in investment management, with roots tracing back to its establishment by an act of Parliament in 1965. Today, the firm remains a top-ten player in the Indian asset management industry, with approximately $23 billion in assets under management and a 5.2% market share. Despite its legacy status and broad distribution footprint — 190 branches covering over 99% of Indian pin codes — UTI remains underappreciated in a market where mutual fund penetration is still in its infancy, with AUM-to-GDP sitting at just 15% compared to 140% in the U.S.

The company has a diversified business across mutual funds, pension mandates, and portfolio management services (PMS), with the latter accounting for 64% of AUM. Mutual fund assets, though smaller in absolute terms, benefit from a retail-heavy and largely direct distribution model, supported by a network of 55,000+ independent financial advisors. The company’s strong institutional backing — from State Bank of India, LIC, and two other public sector banks — gives it credibility and reach, particularly in India’s growing Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities.

UTI shares recently traded at ₹980, a P/E multiple of just 16x FY25 and a return on equity of 20%. In comparison, peers like HDFC AMC and Nippon Life command valuations of 27–32x earnings with ROEs in the 29–34% range. While UTI’s growth has been more modest — 5% annual revenue growth and 15% EPS CAGR over the last five years — the valuation discount appears excessive given the firm’s franchise value, brand recognition, and improving profitability metrics. The structural drivers of long-term AUM growth in India remain firmly in place, with the country still vastly underpenetrated by global standards.

Risks include potential market share erosion to more aggressive private sector competitors and sensitivity to short-term equity market sentiment. Nonetheless, UTI offers a compelling combination of heritage, scalability, and financial discipline, trading at a material discount to peers. With improving margins, strong distribution, and a tailwind from the formalization of savings in India, UTI represents a classic value opportunity in a structurally expanding industry.

Disclaimer

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Rajeev Agrawal of DoorDarshi Advisors presented his in-depth investment thesis on Repco Home Finance (India: REPCOHOME) at Asian Investing Summit 2025, held from April 8-11.

Thesis Summary

Repco Home Finance is a small-cap housing finance company in India, focused primarily on self-employed and salaried customers in the under-penetrated affordable housing market. With a 230-branch network and a customer base concentrated in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, Repco offers loans through direct sales, loan camps, and distribution agents. Despite growing assets under management at only 5% CAGR over the past six years, the firm has delivered stronger PAT growth of 10.6% annually. A combination of prudent underwriting, improving asset quality, and a resilient customer base has enabled Repco to generate consistently high returns on equity — averaging 14% over the last decade and 13% through COVID-disrupted years.

The company recently traded at ₹335 per share, or approximately $244 million in market cap, representing just 4.9x trailing earnings and 0.7x book value. With a capital adequacy ratio of 32.5%, Tier 1 capital at 31.7%, and improving credit metrics, the balance sheet is robust. Non-performing assets have steadily declined, and loans disbursed post-COVID are showing stronger repayment behavior, leading to lower credit costs. Net interest margins and spreads have improved steadily, driving both income and profitability in recent quarters. While management transition remains a key overhang, incoming CEO T. Karunakaran — an internal veteran who served previously as CFO and COO — is expected to provide continuity and operational clarity, with strategic direction to emerge in coming quarters.

Repco’s performance still lags behind larger Indian housing finance peers in terms of scale and growth, but the valuation gap has widened disproportionately. Peers trade at median multiples of 2.1x book and 19x earnings despite delivering similar long-term ROEs and slightly stronger growth. If Repco’s return profile holds and loan book growth accelerates even modestly, a re-rating is plausible. Management has guided for 15–20% PAT growth, and even assuming a conservative 12% CAGR and a re-rating to 8x P/E, the stock could double over the next 2.25 years—implying a 40% annualized return.

The market’s skepticism stems from a legacy of underperformance, uncertain growth prospects, and past leadership that overpromised and underdelivered. However, recent improvements in asset quality, profitability, and capital efficiency suggest a turning point. As liquidity builds and management credibility is re-established, Repco is positioned as a classic deep value play. Investors with patience and a long-term horizon may find a compelling margin of safety at current levels.

Disclaimer

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Gokul Raj Ponnuraj of Bavaria Industries Group presented his investment thesis on MAS Financial Services (India: MASFIN) at Asian Investing Summit 2025, held from April 8-11.

Thesis Summary

MAS Financial is an Indian NBFC (non-banking financial) with a terrific track record of compounding book value per share, lending AUM, earnings per share etc at 25%+ for the last two decades. The owner-operator has consistently focused on steady growth with minimal equity dilution and that has allowed him to continue to own >65% of the firm. The firm has a long term culture with low employee turnover and conservative lending policies (‘extend credit only where it is due’ is their core philosophy).

The firm has a highly granular retail loan portfolio that is diversified across 4 lending segments. The firm has consistently delivered post-tax ROA’s of 3%+. Even during the COVID wave 1 and 2, the firm generated 2.8% and 2.7% ROA respectively. With conservative leverage, the firm can deliver 13-14% ROE even in a weak year. On a normalized basis, the firm can sustainably deliver 2.8-3.2% ROA and 16-18% ROE with little volatility. Management expects to grow their AUM at 20-25% CAGR for the next several years.

The stock since its IPO has traded at a meaningful premium to the NBFC basket at >3X price to book value. During the ongoing SMID correction in Indian markets, the stock has started to trade at an attractive valuation of 1.6X price to book value and 14X price to earnings. This is attractive for a business with a well capitalized balance sheet (Debt/ Equity of 3.5X) and scalable operating model in a high growth industry. Gokul Raj believes the recent price provides an attractive entry point into a long term compounder.

Disclaimer

By Bavaria Industries Group: “We have accumulated around 1.5% of the firm over the last few months and hence biased in our analysis. Please do your own research and we would be happy to hear any contrarian opinion to our analysis.”

By MOI/BeyondProxy: “The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.”

Michael Fritzell of Asian Century Stocks presented his in-depth investment thesis on Major Cineplex (Thailand: MAJOR) at Asian Investing Summit 2025, held from April 8-11.

Thesis Summary

Major Cineplex is the dominant cinema operator in Thailand with a commanding 70% market share and a recognizable stable of brands, including EGV and Paragon Cineplex. Run by founder and 30% shareholder Vicha Poolvaraluk, the company offers a diversified revenue base across ticket sales, concessions, advertising, and ancillary entertainment. While severely impacted by COVID-19, Hollywood strikes, and streaming competition, MAJOR appears to be on the verge of a multi-year earnings recovery, aided by a strong 2025–2026 film slate and strategic expansion.

Management has outlined a bullish outlook, forecasting a rebound in attendance to pre-pandemic levels of 44 million by 2027 and announcing plans to open 35–40 new screens in 2025. These new screens are expected to generate ROICs around 15%. Meanwhile, Thailand remains severely under-screened, with only one screen per 58,000 people compared to one per 7,500 in the U.S., highlighting long-term growth potential. The 2025 Hollywood pipeline, alongside a robust Thai movie lineup, marks a sharp contrast to the content drought of prior years and positions the company for meaningful revenue and margin recovery.

MAJOR recently traded at 11.6x forward P/E and 1.0x EV/sales, a steep discount to regional peers such as PVR Inox (India) and Wanda Film (China), despite a cleaner balance sheet and superior market share. Prior to COVID-19, the stock averaged a 19x P/E and delivered consistent operating margins in the 10–14% range. Though current gross profits remain 30% below peak, normalized box office trends and higher ticket prices should close the gap. Share buybacks have also accelerated, with the share count shrinking by roughly 15% in the past year alone.

Risks include shorter theatrical windows and streaming competition, as well as related-party transactions tied to Studio M, a Thai film company controlled by Poolvaraluk. Still, with a base case anchored in industry normalization, stronger content, and capital returns, MAJOR presents a compelling small-cap opportunity in Southeast Asia’s under-penetrated cinema market. Investors could see significant upside if attendance rebounds and the company re-rates even modestly toward historical valuation levels.

Disclaimer

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Simon Caufield of SIM Limited presented his investment thesis on International Workplace Group (UK: IWG) at Best Ideas 2025, held from January 9-24.

Thesis Summary

IWG (Regus) is by far the leader in the growing, fragmented market for flexible office space. Historically, Regus was a serviced office provider taking long-term leases from building owners to offer short-term leases to customers.

IWG is not WeWork, as it has been consistently cash generative (excl. growth capex); it survived the dot com crash, the GFC, and covid lockdowns. ~25% of revenue comes from ancillary services like coffee, parking, IT, and secretarial. IWG is 6x larger and more diversified than WeWork — more countries, brands, and suburban. Each property is owned within an SPV, so that IWG can terminate leases or negotiate rent breaks. 40% of lease liabilities are flexible, with rent linked to landlord revenue.

The market for IWG is growing, and the runway is long. Flex has reached only about 15% of the UK’s total office space. Simon estimates that the total addressable market is more than 1,000x IWG’s recent market cap.

IWG is uniquely positioned to serve two segments. In the traditional serviced office business model, providers take long-term leases from building owners and sell shorter-term, flexible leases to customers. Customers are mainly smaller companies and startups with needs for a single office. IWG also provides multiple-office/region/country options for large and multinational businesses wishing to reduce their commitment to long, fixed leases. Demand is growing for a flexible “work-close-to-home” alternative/complement to traditional offices and home working. Only IWG is able to offer these services because its network is so much larger, diversified, and suburban than the networks of competitors. While capital intensive, this business model has barriers to scale.

Since 2019, IWG has been transitioning to a capital-light model. It franchised its Japanese business for 3.4x revenue plus an annual royalty of 4-5% of “system revenue”. It has since developed a superior “managed” capital-light model, in which IWG manages spaces, including sales and services, which franchisees generally do less well. The annual royalty to IWG is typically 10-15% of “system revenue”, and landlords incur capex. This business model has barriers to scale and minimal capital requirements.

In March 2022 IWG announced the £270 million acquisition of The Instant Group, a private software company providing an Airbnb-like service for booking office space. IWG subsequently merged its own fledgling software businesses into the division and renamed it “Worka”. In November 2022, IWG rejected an offer from CVC of £1.5 billion for The Instant Group, equivalent to 137p per IWG share. Today, Worka generates annualised revenue of $376 million and EBITDA of $140 million.

Simon estimates that IWG could be worth 737p per share, or 4.6x the recent 160p share price. Worka alone may be worth at least 137p per share, or 85% of IWG’s recent market cap. The remaining business could be worth 600p per share.

Disclaimer

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Stephen Dodson of Bretton Fund presented his investment thesis on Eagle Materials (US: EXP) at Best Ideas 2025, held from January 9-24.

Thesis Summary

Eagle Materials is a long-term compounder in a so-so, cyclical industry. It has $2.5 billion in revenue and an $8 billion market cap.

The business mix is ~50% cement, ~50% wallboard. Eagle has best-in-class margins and returns on capital (2-3x average). Tailwinds include favorable industry growth, combined with structural competitive advantages.

Management has exhibited excellent capital allocation. Eagle is a best-in-class operator with 40% ROE and a modest valuation at a P/E of less than 15x. The company remains relatively unknown, but is a compounder, with a long runway. The business enjoys structural, durable advantages.

Disclaimer

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Steven Gorelik of Firebird Management presented his in-depth investment thesis on United Natural Foods Inc (US: UNFI) at Best Ideas 2025, held from January 9-24.

Thesis Summary

United Natural Foods Inc is an organic and conventional grocery distributor serving 30,000+ customers in the US. The company recently had an enterprise value of $3.8 billion, while reporting trailing sales of ~$31 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $535 million.

UNFI was founded in 1976 as a distributor of specialty and organic products. The company went public in 1997. UNFI grew sales and EBITDA at a low-teens CAGR from 1997 to 2018. The acquisition of Supervalu in 2018 more than doubled the company’s size but introduced significant leverage and complexity, as conventional and organic distribution businesses tend to be vastly different. Supervalu was a conventional distributor with retail operations. UNFI acquired Supervalu for $2.3 billion, and debt to EBITDA spiked to more than 10x following the acquisition.

From 2019 to 2021, combined company sales grew 21% while cash from operations grew by 3x. UNFI achieved almost $200 million in cost synergies related to the acquisition. The company reduced net working capital dramatically and benefited from product scarcity and high inflation. UNFI paid down debt by $1.3 billion during the COVID period thanks to strong cash flow.

Distributors benefit from inflation due to tight margins and a time lag between the purchase and sale of inventory. UNFI’s margins fell by 1% between 2022 and 2023 due to food inflation being below wage growth and due to a lack of supplier rebates. Meanwhile, the cost-of-living crisis shifts consumption away from UNFI’s customers to discounters and Walmart.

The rate of change in inflation is more important to UNFI’s business than absolute inflation levels. The company has extended its distribution agreement with Whole Foods through 2031, allowing for debt refinancing. Supplier rebates have been coming back to pre-COVID levels. UNFI is also seeing early benefits from investments in automation and lean process implementation.

Steve cites a forecast of $100+ million in free cash flow in 2025, a 6% FCF yield based on UNFI’s recent market cap. FCF could exceed $300 million in 2027 due to the normalization of margins and benefits of automation. The recent market quotation of UNFI shares implies <5x EV/2027 EBITDA and a 20+% 2027 FCF yield. Steve expects the company to generate one-third of the recent market cap in free cash flow over the next three years.

Disclaimer

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Keith Smith of Bonhoeffer Fund presented his in-depth investment theses on three small banks — United Bancorporation of Alabama (OTC: UBAB), Northeast Bank (Nasdaq: NBN), and FFB Bancorp (OTC: FFBB) — at Best Ideas 2025, held from January 9-24.

Thesis Summaries

United Bancorporation of Alabama (“UBAB”) is a community bank located in Alabama that provides banking service to small and mid-sized businesses (“SMEs”) in Alabama and Northwestern Floria and low-income housing and municipal loans across the Southeast. UBAB services one of the fastest growing regions of Alabama and Florida (the Panhandle Beach Cities). UBAB also originates and services low-income loans which results in a large amount of non-interest income via fees, grant and tax credits (which can be sold to third parties). UBAB operates out of its headquarters in Atmore, Alabama, and nineteen locations in Alabama and Florida. UBAB services Baldwin, Escambia, Monroe, Mobile, Jefferson and Wilco counties in Alabama, and Santa Rosa county in Florida. UBAB is a designated community development finance institution (“CDFI”) thus is eligible for US Treasury incentive payments. UBAB has grown EPS by almost 17% per year over the past five and 22% over the past ten years. This growth is driven by providing low-income loans, selling tax credit and providing commercial and commercial real estate loans. UBAB’s lending franchise and loan purchase generates an average loan yield of 6.7% and has organically grown loans by 15% per year over the past five years. The strong loan growth is comprised of criticized plus watch list loans of 5.0%, non-performing loans (“NPAs”) of 2.2% and a loan loss reserve to NPAs of 80%. UBAB finances its loans through non-interest bearing and interest bearing deposits generating a low cost of funds of 1.3%. The resulting net interest margin (NIM) is 5.4% and is sustainable as funding costs will decline with declining loan yields. UBAB’s largest shareholder is its management, which holds 4.5% of its common stock. UBAB generates about 20% of its revenue from non-interest bearing or spread activities. UBAB’s current valuation is about 7x earnings with high-teens expected EPS growth.

Northeast Bank (“NBN”) is a community bank located in Maine that provide banking service to small and mid-sized businesses (“SMEs”) in Maine as well as SBA loans nationwide as well purchasing and servicing orphan loans. Orphan loans are loans which are sold by either the FTC, as a result of forced sales associated with mergers, or the FDIC, as a result of forced sales from insolvency. NBN operates out of its headquarters in Portland, Maine, an office in Lewiston, Maine, an office in Boston, Massachusetts and seven branch locations across Maine. NBN’s strategy includes purchasing orphan loans as well as originating specialty loans such as PPP loans during COVID or SBA loans currently. FFBB also has specialized loan purchase group (National Lending Group) that purchases and services orphan loans. The orphan loans team has over 30 years experience in originating and servicing FTC and FDIC sold loans. Much of the NLG’s current management team worked for Capital Crossing Bank that was founded by NBN’s CEO Richard Wayne in the late 1980s to purchase orphan loans. Capital Crossing was sold to Lehman Brothers in 2007. As a public company, Capital Crossing generated 20% annualized returns from the IPO to sale. After the financial crisis, Richard Wayne was able to reassemble the Capital Crossing team as NBN after Mr. Wayne gained control of NBN in 2010. Other banks that have grown via buying orphan loans include Beal Bank and First Citizens whose current or peak size is multiples of NBN’s current size illustrating decent growth potential for NBN. NBN has grown EPS by almost 40% per year over the past five and ten years. This growth is driven by opportunistically buying orphan loans and originating PPP loans during COVID and SBA loans currently. NBN’s lending franchise and loan purchase generates an average loan yield of 8.9% and has organically grown loans by 26% per year over the past five years. The incremental loan yield is estimated by management to be 8.8%. This loan growth is good growth characterized by criticized plus watch list loans of 1.4% of loans, non-performing loans (“NPAs”) of 0.9% and a loan loss reserve to NPAs of 118%. NBN’s finances its loans via CDs and generates a high cost of funds of 4.0%. The resulting NIM is 4.9% and is sustainable as funding costs will decline with declining loan yields. NBN’s largest shareholder is its management, which holds 15% of its common stock. NBN’s current valuation is about 9.1x earnings with 20%s expected EPS growth.

FFB Bancorp (“FFBB”) is a regional bank located in California that provides high touch banking services to small and mid-sized businesses (“SME”). Two large functional areas of growth include transaction processing and SBA loans. FFBB operates out of one branch in Fresno providing financial services to California’s Central Valley as well as Southern and Northern California. FFBB also has a loan production office in Torrance, California servicing Southern California. FFBB’s strategy includes hiring an experienced regional banking head to hire relationship managers and business development officers in Northern and Southern California. FFBB also has technologies groups that are used to automate banking service functions and develop new applications for targeted customer bases such as small businesses and restaurants. Management has aspirations to grow its assets in three regions it operates in (Central Valley, Northern California and Southern California) by six times over the next seven to ten years. FFBB is one of only five firms whose EPS has grown by 20% or more in each of the last five consecutive years. This growth is driven by transaction processing and increased loan revenue from SMEs and Southern California multi-family real estate. FFBB’s lending franchise generates an average loan yield of 6.7% and has organically grown loans by 23% per year over the past five years. The incremental loan yield is estimated by management to be 8%. This loan growth is good growth characterized by criticized plus watch list loans of 1.6% of loans, non-performing loans (“NPAs”) of 0.5% and a loan loss reserve to NPAs of 145%. FFBB’s deposit franchise generates low cost of funds of 1.1% from transaction processing float and non-interest bearing deposits from SME and real estate loan clients. The resulting NIM is 5.2% and is sustainable as incremental loan yield is higher than the current yield and the cost of funds is steady as processing revenue is increasing. FFBB’s largest shareholder is its ESOP, which holds 6% of its common stock. FFBB’s current valuation is about 8.8x earnings with 20%s expected EPS growth.

Disclaimer

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Nitin Sacheti of Papyrus Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Golar LNG (US: GLNG) at Best Ideas 2025, held from January 9-24.

Thesis Summary

Golar LNG appears poised to deliver record earnings, backed by improved contracts across its floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) fleet.

Historically, Golar faced challenges with nascent FLNG technology and risky capital allocation, barely avoiding financial distress.

Rising LNG demand, particularly in Asia, paired with abundant supply from the US and Qatar, solidifies LNG as a critical transition fuel.

Nitin sees potential for GLNG to be worth $100+ per share in the coming years, driven by estimated FCF power of $10–$12 per share.

Disclaimer

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Jeffrey Stacey of Stacey Muirhead Capital Management updated his investment thesis on Fairfax India Holdings (Canada: FIH.U) at Best Ideas 2025, held from January 9-24.

Thesis Summary

Fairfax India (FIH) is an investment holding company whose objective is to achieve long-term capital appreciation by investing in public and private equity securities and debt instruments in India and Indian businesses.

Fairfax India sponsor Fairfax Financial Holdings has an excellent long-term record in India. The Fairfax India IPO was completed in January 2015. Fairfax Financial owns 43.4% and OMERS owns 15.1% of Fairfax India. The latter receives investment support from Fairbridge Capital in Mumbai. FIH reports financial results using IFRS investment entity accounting. As a result, book value per share is a “rough” proxy for intrinsic value.

FIH’s largest holding by far is the privately held Bangalore International Airport. It is India’s third-largest airport and one of the world’s fastest-growing airports, with a strategic position in southern India. The airport reported a record 37.5 million passengers and 439,524 MT of cargo in FY2024. Jeff views the recent published valuation of $2.5 Billion (on a 100% ownership basis) as extremely conservative.

FIH had book value per share of nearly $22 as of Q3 2024. Due to the conservative nature of management’s value estimates, Jeff believes fair value may be ~$10 per share higher, resulting in an adjusted fair value of roughly $32 per share. FIH recently traded at roughly one-half of this adjusted fair value estimate.

Since inception, FIH has repurchased 22 million shares, or 14% of total shares outstanding for $289 million or $13 per share.

Disclaimer

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Jean Pierre Verster of Protea Capital Management presented his investment thesis on PDD Holdings (US: PDD) at Best Ideas 2025, held from January 9-24.

Thesis Summary

PDD is a holding company that operates two mega online marketplaces: Pinduoduo (China) and Temu (ex China in 86 countries), following a “consumer-to-merchant” business model. The company has a recent market cap of USD 135 billion, is quite secretive, and has very strong valuation metrics.

PDD Holdings is registered in the Cayman Islands, headquartered in Ireland, functionally operates mainly from Shanghai, and has depository shares listed on the Nasdaq. It was founded by Colin Huang (ex Google engineer) in 2015 as Pinduoduo, a China social buying platform focusing on agricultural products. The company grew very strongly and launched Temu in 2022.

PDD has exhibited very strong revenue and profit growth over the past few years, and is an asset-light business. PDD has a high net cash position (~33% of market cap) and high cash generation, with ROCE and ROE of 30+%. Management has proven its ability with Pinduoduo and is repeating this success with Temu. PDD operates an attractive two-sided marketplace with “scale economies shared” business model. The company is continuing to gain market share from incumbent online marketplaces (e.g. BABA, AMZN). The founder still owns ~25% of the company (now one of China’s richest persons).

Based on an analysis that considers an earnings-based valuation and an EVA valuation, Jean Pierre projects fair value of USD ~240 per share in January 2029, a four-year CAGR of ~25%.

Disclaimer

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Will Thomson of Massif Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Harbour Energy (UK: HBR) at Best Ideas 2025, held from January 9-24.

Thesis Summary

Harbour Energy presents a compelling investment opportunity in the European Independent E&P sector. Through strategic M&A, HBR management has transformed the firm into one of the largest independent oil and gas producers globally, with a diversified asset base and robust financial profile.

The recent acquisition of Wintershall Dea’s non-Russian assets significantly reduces HBR’s reliance on UK assets and expands its presence in markets like Norway and Argentina. This geographic diversification, coupled with an increased focus on natural gas production, positions the company well for the energy transition.

HBR’s financial outlook is attractive, with projected free cash flow yields of 15-20% annually between 2025 and 2030. The company’s investment-grade credit rating and manageable debt levels further underscore its financial stability.

Based on various commodity price scenarios, we value HBR at 548 GBp per share, representing a 105% potential return for investors.

Disclaimer

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Elliot Turner of RGA Investment Advisors presented his in-depth investment thesis on Sartorius (Germany: SRT, SRT3) and Sartorius Stedim (France: DIM) at Best Ideas 2025, held from January 9-24.

Thesis Summary

Sartorius is a pure play in the bioprocessing space. Key players in bioprocessing include Sartorius, Danaher, Thermo Fisher, Merck Millipore, and Repligen. Sartorius and Repligen are the only two pure-plays, where you are not buying broader industry exposure. Sartorius’ ownership structure is somewhat convoluted, with three distinct publicly listed securities. Sartorius Stedim (DIM) is the pure play. Sartorius (SRT3/SRT) has 20% of revenue exposure to lab products and services.

Bioprocessing may be the best business in life sciences (picks and shovels of biotech). Bioprocessing is the manufacturing process through which a cell or cells are scaled up in number in order to filter out, and then harvest specific pieces or output of the cells themselves. This is the process through which biologics, vaccines, and increasingly cell and gene therapies are made through. It is an oligopolistic market, with a small number of critical players and extremely high barriers to entry — two to four companies compete in any one of the key sub-segments. Critical components are “spec’d in” with the FDA, meaning the actual approval of a drug or therapy requires the same tools and consumables used in the clinical trials preceding approval must be used in the commercial manufacturing of that specific drug or therapy.

Sartorius is a secular share winner. Traditionally, biologics were manufactured in stainless steel bioreactors. That remains the case with blockbuster drugs, but in early stage and newly commercial products, single-use bioreactors are dominant. Single-use bioreactors use changeable plastic bag liners, which are expensive, high-value consumables. These reactors are smaller, more efficient in titer expression and require less downtime (cleaning time, etc). Consumables are 70-80% of the revenue base in the business. Single-use share has risen from 20% in 2018 to ~30% today in biologics. These gains continue. Many blockbusters remain in stainless steel but there are technological breakthroughs driving efficiencies that will drive continued share away from legacy instrumentation.

Perfusion can accelerate share gains. Single-use has gone from 20% share in 2018 to 30% industry share. Today biologics are manufactured in batches. In the future, biologics will be manufactured in a continuous process. This will be more efficient, cost meaningfully less, and have less variance from batch to batch. The biggest barriers to adoption are regulatory and the fact that the industry inherently moves slowly. Despite the barriers, perfusion is inevitable. Biosimilars are leading early adoption, as the razer-thin margins of generic competition in biologics requires the utmost cost efficiency. Key CDMOs building perfusion processes like Evotec and Lonza rely exclusively on Sartorius for perfusion, as their purpose-built bioreactors for perfusion are by far the best in the industry.

Sartorius has highly recurring revenue:

Single-use drives consumables: 75% of sales at Sartorius Group and 80% of sales at Stedim are recurring in nature.

Razor/blade business model: Sell the bioreactor and then benefit from the consumable pull through for years. Key consumables are the filters (largest component of recurring revenue) and plastic bags (highest margin and value).

“Spec’d in”: Industry parlance for being incorporated in the regulatory application and subsequent approval. A supplier is spec’d in during the Investigational New Drug (IND) application. Once a trial proceeds with a key supplier, a change essentially requires restarting the entire process. Upon commercial approval, Sartorius’ position essentially becomes an annuity for that product’s life.

Mainly commercial today: Over 60% of Sartorius revenue is tied to commercial products. Clinical is essentially a portfolio of diverse bets which will seed the future annuity stream.

Sartorius shares are lowly valued in absolute and relative terms. Sartorius typically trades at a premium to Danaher, given it is a pure-play levered to the fastest growth area in bioprocessing. Recently, however, Sartorius shares have traded at a discount. Sartorius also trades near trough valuations of the past decade, on trough earnings. Consumption is ahead of revenue, and margins have delevered. Both should recover within the next year.

Disclaimer

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Ian Clark of Dichotomy Capital presented his investment thesis on Portland General Electric (US: POR) at Best Ideas 2025, held from January 9-24.

Thesis Summary

Portland General Electric is a vertically integrated electric utility serving over 900,000 customers in the Portland metropolitan area, with a peak load capacity of 4,500 MW. Historically, the company has achieved 5-7% EPS growth and expects load growth of approximately 2% annually through the end of the decade. Recent shifts in industrial demand, driven by semiconductor and AI-related energy consumption, present a significant growth opportunity that POR has been slow to fully acknowledge. However, its upcoming Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) in Q1 2025 is expected to reflect this increased demand, supporting further investment in capacity and infrastructure expansion.

Regulatory developments are also working in POR’s favor. While Oregon’s Public Utility Commission (PUC) has been cautious about allowing higher returns on equity (ROEs), recent reforms have improved the company’s ability to recover energy cost volatility, reducing earnings unpredictability. Additionally, POR’s planned entry into California’s Extended Day Ahead Market (EDAM) in 2026 will enhance regional resource optimization and dampen price volatility, creating a more stable earnings environment. These factors, along with a substantial capital expenditure program, position POR as a growth-oriented utility with improving fundamentals.

Despite these positive tailwinds, POR faces key challenges, including the need to raise $300 million in the near term to fund its expansion plans. Oregon’s regulatory environment, while not as restrictive as some states, remains a potential headwind, particularly as affordability concerns limit the PUC’s willingness to approve aggressive rate increases. Additionally, while industrial load growth has accelerated, there is some uncertainty about the long-term sustainability of AI and semiconductor-driven electricity demand. Energy price volatility also remains a risk, though recent regulatory adjustments provide a degree of mitigation.

From a valuation perspective, POR recently traded near book value, with upside potential as it benefits from load growth and declining earnings volatility. Applying an EV/EBITDA framework that accounts for these factors, a fair value estimate ranges from $45 to $70 per share, with a base case of $65. If the company successfully executes on its growth initiatives, particularly in industrial demand and market participation through EDAM, it could see a significant re-rating, presenting investors with an attractive risk-reward.

Disclaimer

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Michael Melby of Gate City Capital Management presented his investment thesis on Entravision Communications (US: EVC) at Best Ideas 2025, held from January 9-24.

Thesis Summary

Entravision owns and operates 49 television stations and 44 radio stations focused on the Hispanic market. Entravision also operates two digital advertising businesses including Smadex and Adwake, which operate programmatic ad purchasing platforms.

Entravision has a market capitalization of $233 million and with $94 million of net debt has an enterprise value of $327 million.

For most of its history, Entravision operated as a controlled company. In December 2022, the Company’s founder and controlling shareholder died, causing his super-voting shares to collapse into regular common stock.

In March 2024, Facebook announced that it would wind down its relationship with all of its Authorized Sales Partners, including Entravision. At the time, Facebook represented over 50% of Entravision’s revenue and 40% of its EBITDA, and the announcement caused Entravision’s shares to fall by over 60%. Following this announcement, Entravision’s new management team moved rapidly to sell non-core digital assets and cut costs.

The Company’s television and radio stations generate average annual EBITDA of approximately $60 million (varying by political years). New management has also expanded the local news coverage to maximize political spending that target the Company’s valuable Hispanic demographic. The Company’s digital business generate approximately $15 million in EBITDA annually and are growing rapidly. Entravision’s television assets also control significant spectrum rights in key areas including Boston, San Diego, and Tampa.

In the last spectrum auction in 2017, Entravision generated $263 million in proceeds from the sale of spectrum in just four of their markets. New incoming leadership at the FCC has highlighted interest in running an additional spectrum auction, which could provide additional windfall profits for Entravision in the next four years.

Disclaimer

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Mike Kruger of MPK Partners presented his in-depth investment thesis on Vistry Group (UK: VTY) at Best Ideas 2025, held from January 9-24.

Thesis Summary

According to Mike, it easy to understand why Vistry Group is cheap: UK homebuilders are in a bear market, the partnerships business model not well understood, and the company has had three profit warnings in the last three months. Yet, despite recent cost overruns on the legacy homebuilding operations that are in runoff, management’s track record is otherwise great.

Vistry is a high-quality business — much less cyclical than a traditional homebuilder, much better returns on capital (ROIC should >= 28% in the next couple of years). Government policy remains very supportive.

Vistry shares are cheap: 2.7x EV to management’s target of GBP 800 million EBIT (2028E?); 84% price to tangible book value, even though lower-quality traditional homebuilders trade between 1-2x tangible book. For the recent price to make sense, one would have to believe that not only has the CEO suddenly lost his touch (at age 60), but that the mixed-tenure partnerships model is fundamentally broken. Neither is likely to be true.

Disclaimer

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Kyle Mowery of GrizzlyRock Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Driven Brands Holdings (US: DRVN) at Best Ideas 2025, held from January 9-24.

Thesis Summary

Driven Brands offers the best of both worlds: private equity control and stewarship as well as public market liquidity and the ability to purchase an equity stake at a discounted valuation.

Kyle sees Driven Brands as a classic “GoodCo/BadCo” setup, with Maintenance, Collision and Glass Repair, and International Car Wash as the good businesses (90% of 2024E EBITDA) and United States Car Wash as the bad business (10% of 2024E EBITDA).

DRVN shares are down ~50% over the past 18 months due to poor US car wash performance and CFO turnover. DRVN trades at a low stock price and valuation even as earnings growth appears set to inflect materially higher.

Kyle sees several upside catalysts, including (1) a sale or stabilization of the car wash segment (early 2025); (2) growth in the “Take 5” business may drive improved investor perception (2025); (3) resegmentation (2025); and (4) 2025 and 2026 earnings guidance (February 2025 and February 2026).

Disclaimer

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

James Emanuel of Rock & Turner presented his in-depth investment thesis on Haivision (Canada: HAI) at Best Ideas 2025, held from January 9-24.

Thesis Summary

Haivision has been led by its founder-CEO for more than two decades, growing at a 23% CAGR over sixteen years pre-IPO using just $8 million in seed funding. The company has a capital-light, service-driven model and enjoys high barriers to entry due to specialized networks and strong customer relationships.

In 2020, Haivision raised capital through an IPO to fund a couple of acquisitions and accelerate growth. Revenue has grown 62% since then. The acquisitions are expected to be value-accretive from H2 2025. The company also has two key partnerships, which have broadened the offering and paved the way for new avenues for growth. Haivision serves diverse clients, including governments, military, and blue-chip corporates (no concentration risk). Haivision supplies its own hardware and has developed industry-standard software backed by 600+ alliance members, including YouTube, Microsoft, and AWS.

Insiders own 31% of the company, with the CEO holding 14% (~20x annual compensation) and increasing his stake in the open market, aligning the interests of management with those of shareholders.

Haivision consistently delivers gross margins above 70%, trending toward 75%, demonstrating pricing power. The service is incredibly sticky and has strong recurring revenue. The company is transitioning to higher-margin cloud and software services while shedding lower-margin segments. As operating leverage takes hold, EBITDA margins appear likely to double. The recent strategic shift and acquisition costs have temporarily acted as a drag on unit economics, which has driven the market cap to less than half of the IPO value — despite the business being far stronger today.

With the company trading at slightly more than 1x revenue, Haivision offers a compelling opportunity. With rising revenues, expanding margins, and multiple expansion — plus, the company has initiated share buybacks (management citing confidence that the stock’s market valuation does not reflect true value — the business has the full set of drivers for strong future shareholder returns.

Disclaimer

The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

Gokul Raj Ponnuraj of Bavaria Industries Group presented his investment thesis on Energean (UK: ENOG) at European Investing Summit 2024, held on October 29-31.

Thesis Summary

Energean is run by a solid owner-operator who has demonstrated smart capital allocation (three value-accretive mergers and acquisitions), along with solid operational execution (development of a large gas field to production).

The company’s core asset generates gas at a very low cost and has a 17-year production runway, supplying to a region with attractive supply-demand dynamics. Unlike several other oil and gas firms, Energean has limited volatility to the commodity price due to fixed long-term contracts.

The recent war in Israel provides an attractive entry point, offering a 10+% regular dividend yield. The firm is also expected to announce a special dividend of 10% and could return 50+% of its market cap over four years.

The recent market quotation may offer a 15+% IRR opportunity with idiosyncratic risks.

Alirio Sendrea of Invexcel presented his investment thesis on Sonae SGPS (Portugal: SON) at European Investing Summit 2024, held on October 29-31.

Thesis Summary

Sonae, a family-controlled Portuguese holding company, has interests prmarily in the retail sector and, to a lesser extent, telecom and real estate.

As a small cap that operates in unfashionable geographies and businesses, albeit with strong competitive dynamics, the market has turned its back on Sonae, causing the shares to trade at a large discount to NAV.

Meanwhile, according to Alirio, the company has been improving returns on capital, strengthening the market position of its core operations, and remunerating shareholders with an attractive dividend.

Jean-Pascal Rolandez of The L.T. Funds presented his investment thesis on Hugo Boss (Germany: BOSS) at European Investing Summit 2024, held from October 29-31.

Thesis Summary

Hugo Ferdinand Boss was born in 1885. His parents jointly owned a lingerie and linen shop in Metzingen where Hugo opened his clothing factory in 1924, starting producing uniforms for the National Socialist Party in 1931 which helped the company grow significantly. After World War II production was focused on uniforms for the French army, the French Red Cross, post office, railroads, and police. In 1969, his great-nephews took over and gradually began its international development. Importantly, in the early 1970s the first BOSS-branded high-quality men’s collection suits were produced, seeding the group’s future, with womenswear introduced in 1998.

Nowadays, HUGO BOSS (HB) is a leading global fashion and lifestyle company in the premium segment, offering a comprehensive range of high-quality women’s and men’s apparel, shoes, and accessories (Coty is the perfume licensee). The Company pursues a portfolio strategy, with now two globally renowned brands, BOSS and HUGO having two clearly distinguished marketing strategies, with a strong focus on social media. By doing so, HB aims to appeal primarily to a younger audience, above all millennials with BOSS and the Gen Z with HUGO. In addition, HB also offers capsule collections and collaborations with well-known brands (Aston Martin, Porsche, etc.) and personalities (David Beckham, Gigi Hadid, Naomi Campbell, at al).

With more than 20,000 employees, HB generated record sales of EUR 4.2 billion in 2023 distributed across 131 countries, mainly in EMEA (63%, 13% in Germany), 23% in the Americas (15% in the US), and 14% in Asia-Pacific (7% only in China). Moreover, HB has an omnichannel presence divided between retail (54% of sales), wholesale (25%), digital (19%), and licensees sales (2%). HB produces 17% of its garments in its five production sites, located in Europe, but for the largest site in Izmir (Turkey). The remaining 83% are mainly sourced from long-term independent partners located in EMEA (52% of total production, 26% in Turkey) and Asia (46%, of which 13% in Vietnam and 10% in China).

The global luxury fashion market is expected to grow at a 5% CAGR by 2031 (source: Straits Research). This market is driven by increasing demand in APAC countries (7% CAGR by 2031), tourism, and the influence of social media, even though the offline segment is still larger than the online segment. Luxury fashion products are gaining momentum among Millennials and Gen Z. Millennials are the fastest-growing consumers of luxury fashion goods.

Since 2019, an emphasis on the separation of the two brands BOSS and HUGO has been carried out by new management, as well as massive investment in digitalization, have allowed HB sales to grow by 10% annually despite the Covid pandemic (29% CAGR for the last three years).

Jean-Pascal expects a 5% sales and a 7% EBITDA CAGR by 2028, driven by an improved gross margin near pre-Covid level and an increasingly successful women’s range. Over the next five years, HB should generate a cumulated EUR 2.6 billion of free cash flow after capex of EUR 1.5 billion, mainly focused on store network, logistics expansion and digitalisation. Its 16.6% 2023 ROCE is well above its 4.7% WACC.

The stock recently traded on 0.9x 2024-25E sales, and 4.6x EV/EBITDA, a 42% discount to peers (PVH and Ralph Lauren). The Marzotto family (Zignago Holding) and Michael Ashley own ~15% each, Deutsche Bank 6%, and Capital Group 5%.

Santiago Domingo Cebrián of Magallanes Value Investors presented his thesis on Anglo American (UK: AAL) at European Investing Summit 2024, held from October 29-31.

Thesis Summary

Anglo American is a global diversified mining company with South African roots. It is active in copper, PGMs, iron ore, met coal, diamonds, nickel and manganese, and crop nutrients projects, with best-in-class assets.

Anglo’s copper assets are located in the best jurisdictions, have some of the lowest cash costs, and long mine lives. In iron ore, Anglo owns 70% of South Africa-listed Kumba, which operates two open-pit mines and is a low-cost producer; and 100% of Minas-Rio, a tier-one open-pit mine and one of the largest iron ore mines in Brazil. Anglo is tranforming the portfolio toward three assets–copper, iron ore, and crop nutrients.

The company has a reasonable net debt position of 1x EBITDA. BHP’s proposal to acquire Anglo, while rejected by the company, hints at potential value realization from M&A or via other strategic options.

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Alejandro Estebaranz of True Value presented his investment thesis on Newlat Food (Italy: NWL) at European Investing Summit 2024, held from October 29-31.

Thesis Summary

Newlat Food is a consumer goods company with a strong track record of value creation through acquisitions. It is a 60+% family-controlled business.

Over the past five years, it has grown EBITDA and FCF at a rate of over 25%. After the acquisition of Princes UK, the shares trade at ~5x FCF, with debt below 2.5x EBITDA.

Alejandro expects the integration of the Princes business to be an important catalyst for the business. Similar food companies trade at higher valuations.

José Antonio Larraz of Equam Capital presented his investment thesis on Macfarlane Group (UK: MACF) at European Investing Summit 2024, held from October 29-31.

Thesis Summary

Macfarlane is the UK’s leading designer, manufacturer, and distributor of protective packaging products for business. The company was founded in 1949 and floated on the stock exchange in 1974. It has 1,000+ employees, 65,000 SKUs, and 20,000+ customers. Macfarlane has been growing through a combination of organic growth and acquisitions. It has annual sales of £281 million and EBITDA of £28+ million.

The industry is quite attractive, with steady mid-single digit growth. Management keeps working capital reasonably low, while the business has low capex needs (~1% of sales). While the business focuses primarily on the UK, Macfarlane entered the European market in 2022 following the acquisition of German company PackMann. Macfarlane holds strong share in the UK packaging distribution market and has an excellent opportunity to grow in other European markets.

Due to a strong balance sheet, with no debt and an available bank facility, the company is in a position to continue financing attractive acquisitions.

While recent performance has been challenging due to UK economic weakness, post-covid ecommerce sales normalization, and logistics standardization, the higher-margin manufacturing business is becoming a greater piece of sales and operating expenses are well-controlled.

According to José, the recent market quotation does not reflect the underlying value of the business, with the shares trading at an FCF yield above 10%. José believes that the company should recover from recent challenges and return to the historical growth demonstrated over many years.

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We are delighted to launch a new idea generation series: Every Friday at the market close (4pm ET), we will release an idea presentation by a highly regarded fund manager from the MOI Global community.

Ole Søeberg of Nordic Investment Partners presented his investment thesis on Vestas Wind Systems (Denmark: VWS) at European Investing Summit 2024, held from October 29-31.

Thesis Summary

Vestas is the world leader in wind power turbines. The company focuses on the European and North American markets.

Due to an order book that did not appropriately incorporate higher cost assumptions for steel and transportation, profitability plummeted as Vestas had to shoulder the cost increases. New orders/contracts come with better profitability, and earnings are likely to grow strongly in the coming years.

Ole views Vestas as a long-term winner, as low-carbon sources increasingly replace traditional fossil fuels in power generation.

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Ole Soeberg: It’s almost scary to say I have four decades of investment experience, but I can’t run away from the facts. Moreover, I truly enjoy it, so I hope there’s at least two-and-a-half decades more of it for me.

This year, I want to present an idea from my home turf—Danish company Vestas. During my investment banking period—from 1985 until just before 2000—I was at Alfred Berg, and among the things we put on the stock exchange back in 1998 was Vestas. I was part of the IPO and have been in and out of the company a few times. It is pretty cyclical, but right now, it’s down near the bottom. This may be a new opportunity for a three- to five-year period of decent returns.