On Thursday night, at the June European Council summit, EU prime ministers and presidents discussed whether they should switch to a tougher strategy on EU-China relations. Frustrations with China dumping exports into the EU market (while not allowing EU companies access to the Chinese market) have reached boiling point. Even Bejing’s biggest European trade partner Germany is ready to do something about it (or at least, that’s what Chancellor Olaf Scholz is saying publicly).

But not everyone is in agreement. While France (backed by Italy) is pushing for a tougher line, Germany has been more reticent while Spain has questioned the wisdom of starting a trade war with China just as Europe is being abandoned (and threatened) by its longtime ally the United States.

On 4 June, Le Continent Captif, the French edition of my book The Owned Continent, was published. I’m now doing promotion rounds for the book in French (keep an eye on the events section of the website) and the first stop was a reading at Librebook multilingual bookshop in the expat-heavy Brussels neighbourhood of Ixelles. It follows a reading of the English book there in March.

Thanks to everyone who came out for the reading, we had a really good discussion there with some excellent questions.

The reviews are coming in from France. This one from l’Express has a headline focused on one very small part of the book saying European federalists should embrace the fact that English has become a lingua franca for the union understood by more than half of EU citizens. I knew this would strike a nerve in France, which has fiercely resisted this development for years. But it’s really not at all the point of the book, I’m not even advocating for any action on that front! I’m simply asking for people in France to stop denying the current linguistic reality in Europe.

Anyway the review itself is quite positive and focuses on the actual topic of the book (resisting American dominance), I think the headline editor just saw a click-bait opportunity to lead with this one small part of the review. Fair enough, I guess I shouldn’t complain if it gets more people to read it. But I really hope I don’t end up getting sidetracked by this one point in all my French interviews, it really isn’t important enough to merit such long debate in my opinion. But I know other people feel differently, and I’m willing to defend my position that resisting English is counter-productive for Europe.

You can purchase the French or the English edition at Librebook, Waterstones or The European Bookshop in Brussels. For more purchasing options, click here.

GLOBSEC, an annual event that combines Davos and the MSC with a focus on central Europe, took place in Prague this week. Dave Keating from Gulf Stream Blues and Julien Hoez from The French Dispatch were both there moderating panels, and in this live video they discussed their observations from the conference and what it says about the readiness of Europe’s leaders to accept reality when it comes to the new USA.

Also discussed: what is needed to make the EU ready to stand up to America and finally become a sovereign independent power - and why the establishment’s visceral reaction against treaty change is a major mistake.

Posts mentioned during the video:

In today’s Substack video I talked about the summit of EU prime ministers and presidents taking place in Cyprus today and the planned dinner discussion about the EU’s Article 42.7 inserted into the 2009 Lisbon Treaty and how it would work in practice.

My quick take on what yesterday’s surprise tsunami of a defeat for Viktor Orban means both in practical terms for the EU and Ukraine and in more symbolic terms for the White House’s regime change efforts in Europe.

Following similar threats over the past days from his secretary of state and secretary of war, Donald Trump has today said he is considering taking the United States out of NATO in retaliation for European countries not joining his war on Iran. But his words reflect a far more troubling reality than his empty threats: the US is already effectively out of NATO, even if it technically remains in.

“I was never swayed by NATO. I always knew they were a paper tiger, and Putin knows that too, by the way,” Trump told The Telegraph newspaper in an apparent cold call. The comments came hours after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News that if Europe doesn’t join this war then the US may leave NATO and pull its troops and bases out of Europe. “NATO wasn’t just about defending Europe, but allowing us to have military bases in Europe for our

I spoke with Luke Johnson from the Public Sphere Substack about how the war is impacting Europe and what European leaders should do. We discussed my Substack post from last week where I explored whether it would make sense to agree to Trump’s demand to send ships to the strait of Hormuz in exchange for concessions on Ukraine and tariffs. In the end, I concluded that such a bargain might sound like a smooth play at first, but when you fully explore it, you realise it doesn’t make any sense.

We also discussed why Europe’s failure to ramp up renewables after the loss of Russian gas in 2022 has made it very vulnerable in the current crisis, particularly for the least-prepared countries including Germany and Italy. Unfortunately, I concluded, the instinct of many European leaders right now seems to be to halt climate action and renewables investment in reaction to the current crisis, as we saw at last week’s European Council summit.

The conversation was hosted by Jakob Hanke Vela, Brussels Bureau Chief for the German newspaper Handelsblatt and former author of Politico Playbook.

Stay tuned to the book’s events page for news about future readings in Brussels, London and Berlin!

EU prime ministers are gathering in Brussels on Thursday to take stock of the global destabilisation caused by the American-Israeli war on Iran and whether they should accept Donald Trump's request for them to send ships to forcibly open the strait themselves.

So far none of them have been interested. But could Macron's political troubles tempt him to engage in some foreign crusading? It wouldn't be the first time.

Though she had come into the summit holding open the possibility that the EU mission of Operation Aspides which has been protecting shipping in the Red Sea could be expanded, Kallas left it reflecting the ver clear consensus that had been in the room: it would be an incredibly bad idea for European countries to send military vessels to the strait because it will drag Europe into the war and risks accomplishing the opposite of what they want: enlarging and prolonging the war.

National officials were sounding a similar tone. “We did not start this war,” German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said yesterday. “The Americans chose this path, together with the Israelis.”

Dave Keating from Gulf Stream Blues and Julien Hoez from The French Dispatch discussed the all-important role of France in this issue, given it is the only significant military power in the EU. While Germany and Italy have already delivered a firm no to Trump’s ask, France and the UK have not yet firmly ruled it out. Dave and Julien talked about how President Macron’s current ‘lame duck’ status, and the developments of Sunday’s elections in Paris and Marseille, could factor in to the decision.

Trump told reporters yesterday that he is confident Macron will assist him. “I think he’s gonna help. I mean, I’ll let you know, I spoke to him yesterday.” Trump also said he was “not happy” with Keie Starmer for rebuffing him. Over the weekend Trump threatened that it will be “very bad for the future of NATO” if European countries refuse to follow his command to send ships to the strait.

Posts mentioned in this video:

Last month on 26 January, people gathered at the Full Circle theatre in Brussels for an evening of discussion, drinks, food and inspiration for how we can move forward with Europe’s independence revolution.

The book launch event for The Owned Continent, hosted by Res Publica Europa, wasn’t just an opportunity to present my new book. It was a call to arms – an unflinching diagnosis of the pathetic point our European leaders have brought us to and a no-holds-barred discussion of how this continent can change course and resist Donald Trump’s extortion.

“We have to make a revolution before it erupts,” said former Dutch MEP Sophie in ’t Veld on the panel. “Because if we don’t make a revolution, then the revolution will be made for us. It’s not the national leaders who are going to change and improve Europe. It can only come from the people. And the question is, are the people sufficiently aware? I’m not sure.”

In ’t Veld was joined on the discussion panel by Alberto Alemanno from The Good Lobby, James Kanter from the EU Scream podcast and Pawel Zerka from the European Council on Foreign Relations. We found many areas of agreement on the problem of Europe’s America addiction that we face at the moment. But we differed on whether the people of Europe have yet woken up to the danger that America poses to them.

“Contrary to what you say at the end of your book, when you say that Europeans haven’t woken up yet, I think that the European public has woken up but is looking at their leadership and can see that there is no plan or prospect,” Zerka told me. “Europeans have perhaps woken up, but as my colleague has said, it’s one thing to wake up, it’s another to get out of bed.”

“I think Europeans maybe are waking up right now, but they’re not yet there,” I replied. “Actually since the book was published on December 8th, I’m maybe feeling more optimistic that people are waking up. Greenland was a trigger. But as you say, if we don’t give people any tools to actually do something about their fears of America, people will feel there’s maybe no purpose to waking up.”

We kicked off the event with me being interviewed by journalist Jennifer Baker about why I wrote the book (the idea came from reader reaction to this Substack post last May) and what I want it to accomplish. I also addressed the elephant in the room: the book says Europeans should stop listening to Americans, except this American talking to them right now! In my defence, I noted, I’ve lived in Europe 20 years (almost my entire adult life) and now have two EU passports – making me 2/3 European! Europe is my home, there is no question of where my loyalties lie, and I know that I will never move back to the United States.

You can watch the full video above (apologies for the sound quality, you’ll notice the volume levels do a lot of oscillating). And if you haven’t bought your copy yet, you can find a list of book stores and online retailers selling it here.

As I announced at the event, there will be a French edition of the book coming out on 7 May with the publisher Édition des Équateurs. And stay tuned for some upcoming news about a German version.

If you happen to live in Catalonia, you should come to the debut book reading in Spain at Backstory bookshop in Barcelona on Saturday 14 May at 5pm. If you’re in Brussels you can look forward to an upcoming event focusing on what the book has to say about English as Europe’s cultural lingua franca (surprisingly I’ve found that to be the most controversial part of the book!). If you’re in London, you can look forward to a book reading at St Pancras station coming up in April. More info on those two events coming soon, check back at the book’s events page for updates.

And thanks to my subscribers for all the support! Together we can defend this continent from America and realise the European dream.

We also talked about my new book The Owned Continent and why I wrote in it that Sanchez has been ostracised by other European leaders as punishment for him not toeing the EU line on Trump appeasement.

Check www.TheOwnedContinent.eu for news about further book readings in Barcelona, Berlin and London, as well as an event in Brussels dedicated to the topic of English as Europe’s cultural lingua franca.

The optics were bad. Last night EU prime ministers and presidents were forced to trudge to Brussels, at great taxpayer expense, for a summit at which they felt obliged to praise the importance of the transatlantic relationship. Rather than brandishing the retaliatory tools that Europe possesses, the leaders declined to task the Commission with preparing the Anti-Coercion instrument against the United States in case Trump changes his mind. They could find no united position on whether or not to join Trump’s “Board of Peace”. The only action they took was cancelling the scheduled imposition of retaliatory tariffs against the US that would have taken effect on 6 February, and demanding that the European Parliament unfreeze its ratification of the EU-US “surrender deal” from last July.

It was, in short, embarrassing.

Fearful of provoking the US president into retracting his retraction, the EU leaders felt they could not make any sudden moves to even prepare retaliation. Entering the summit, which had been hastily rebranded as 'a broad discussion of transatlantic relations’ yesterday morning after Trump’s about-face, many leaders felt compelled to praise the United States. Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nauseda said it would be “inappropriate” for the EU to be preparing any retaliatory measures against the US. “Why did we pull out the heaviest weapon, the bazooka, and start threatening our partner with it?” he asked. He said instead Europe should be ingratiating itself to Trump by “offering a positive agenda” and he wanted the summit to be focused on increased cooperation with America, not “how to trip each other up.” Romania’s President Nicosur Dan was asked whether the EU-US relationship is broken, and he seemed flummoxed by the question, saying it absolutely isn’t. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni also came in praising the restraint.

It was clear from the leaders’ statements as they entered last night’s summit that, as I wrote yesterday, they are not on the same page about the lessons to be drawn from the past week. One on side, leaders like France’s Macron, Spain’s Sanchez, Denmark’s Frederiksen and Austria’s Stocker think that it was Europe’s firmness and its show of strength in sending troops to Greenland that made Trump back down. On the other, leaders like Italy’s Meloni, Lithuania’s Nauseda, Greece’s Mitsotakis and (it seems) Germany’s Merz believe it was Europe’s continued appeasement strategy and offers of negotiation that bought us peace in our time.

And so, at her closing press conference, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tried to please both sides by saying over and over that it was Europe’s “firm and non-escalatory” response that had gotten Trump to change his mind. But it was clear she leans more toward the latter when she didn’t even want to mention the Anti-Coercion Instrument by name. Von der Leyen and Costa looked anything but firm standing on that podium.

In this Substack Live with Luke Johnson from the Public Sphere Substack, I discussed what went wrong at this summit and why it probably would have been better if Costa had never called it in the first place.

Posts mentioned in this video:

Hey subscribers, thanks so much for all your support and the enthusiastic response to the book! It’s already sold many more copies than I was expecting since the soft launch on 8 December.

I’m now in preparations for the hard launch at the event in Brussels on 26 January. We’ve been overwhelmed by the number of registrations and unfortunately had to cut it off at 200, as that’s the max the venue can hold. But you can still register for the waitlist, you should be cleared to attend a few days before once others indicate they can’t make it. Alternatively (or additionally) you can register to attend the book reading the following week on 5 February at the Brussels Press Club. And stay tuned for an announcement about an event in March with The Bridge theatre company about English as the lingua franca of Europe’s common culture.

To watch the full Substack Live video, subscribe below:

Maybe I was a bit too tired and cranky in my 6am Substack dispatch this morning. Yes, the optics of yesterday’s European Council are quite bad for the EU. President von der Leyen said the EU was going to deliver help to Ukraine, and in the end they couldn’t muster the political will to do it.

But as I explained in this Substack Live with Luke Johnson from Public Sphere this afternoon (following a well-deserved nap), they did agree to something very major: blasting through Northern Europe’s taboo against joint EU debt and agreeing a ‘Eurobonds for Ukraine’ plan that we had been told as recently as the day before the summit was impossible because of both German opposition to eurobonds and Hungarian opposition to aid for Ukraine. For some reason, both Merz and Orban easily caved last night. Why? We still don’t know the answer.

For European federalists, this is a major victory. No longer can we say that the EU doesn’t do Eurobonds. They’ve now done it for the second time, following their use for the Covid recovery fund in 2021. Back then Berlin insisted it was a one-off for an emergency situation that will never happen again. Well guess what Mimi, it did. After we suffered for years of the Eurozone crisis dragging on longer than it had to because of German intransigence on this issue, the Germans have finally accepted the principle of joint EU debt. And in the end, Ukraine will get the same amount over the next two years (€90 billion) that it would have gotten under the latest draft of the reparations loan which would have staggered payments.

As Luke and I discussed, this will make a huge difference to Ukraine in being able to stand up to Russia in the

Thanks to everyone who tuned in and asked their questions. As I mentioned, there will be the big book launch event in Brussels on 26 January (register here) and a book reading at the Brussels Press Club on 5 February (register here).

Click here to be directed to your national Amazon page to buy the book, or you can buy it at Bol.com or Genialokal.de if you’d rather not use Amazon. You can buy the eBook on Bol.com (Belgium and Netherlands) or at Kobo.com (Ireland and RoW).

In this Substack Live, Dave Keating from Gulf Stream Blues asks Julien Hoez from The French Dispatch to break down what’s happening and why.

Posts mentioned during this Substack Live:

This week was tough to take for Britain’s left. The sight of Labour Prime Minister grovelling to President Trump on his unprecedented second state visit, even as the news reached London about MAGA’s launch of the most prolific crackdown on American free speech in history following the assassination of Charlie Kirk, was difficult. It was clear that Starmer will never show solidarity with the American left, he is intent on his strategy of Trump supplication.

You got the impression that if Trump had shown up naked wearing clothes someone had told him very invisible, the British royals and politicians would have been falling over themselves to tell him that his clothes were beautiful.

In this Substack Live with Dave Keating from Gulf Stream Blues and Julien Hoez from The French Dispatch, we analysed why Europe is still so intent on subservience to Trump even with everything they can see happening across the Atlantic. We also gave our report card on President von der Leyen’s State of the European Union speech and analysed what might be next for EU-Israel relations as they are changing rapidly at the moment.

Posts mentioned during this Substack Live:

In this Substack Live, I analysed President von der Leyen’s State of the European Union address to the EU Parliament and discussed whether it really heralds any change in strategy toward the US after the surrender summer we just witnessed.

Substack posts mentioned in this video:

The leaders had rushed to Washington to prevent another Oval Office ambush of the Ukrainian president. Their flattery bought them warm words from Trump and a suggestion from him that the US could participate in security guarantees for Ukraine after the war. The leaders know there is almost no prospect of Putin accepting Trump’s invitation for a trilateral summit with Zelenskyy. But they are hoping that when he refuses, it will turn Trump against the Russian president.

Dave Keating from Gulf Stream Blues and Luke Johnson from Public Sphere discuss the implications and what’s next.

Previous posts mentioned in this video:

In this Substack Live, Dave Keating from Gulf Stream Blues and Julien Hoez from The French Dispatch discussed why this is such a bad deal for Europe, how it moves this continents vassal status from being implicit to explicit, and why EU citizens will not accept the argument that they must increase their vassalage to America in order to prevent Ukraine from being a vassal to Russia.

Then, is von der Leyen already a lame duck? Dave and Julien talked about the loss of confidence in the EU president and why she isn’t rising to the moment at this critical time for Europe. One day ahead of the no-confidence vote scheduled against her in the European Parliament, is there anything von der Leyen can do reverse her increasing irrelevance?

Finally, Dave and Julien talked about today’s raids by French Police of the headquarters of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party, and why people in both Europe and America don’t understand the seriousness of what Le Pen is being charged with - effectively stealing from taxpayers all across Europe.

Some of the pieces mentioned in today’s live video:

Thank you Roberto Artellini, Arturo Macias, and many others for tuning into my live video with Julien Hoez! Join us for our next live video in the app.

A Substack Live video from the European Council summit in Brussels immediately following the NATO summit in the Hague.

Read more about some of the issues I discussed here in the analysis article I posted last night:

This week was a week of ‘no’s. No to Trump’s “retaliatory” tariffs, no to Catalan becoming an official EU language, and no to President von der Leyen’s commissioners attending the illegal Budapest Pride on 28 June.

Dave Keating from Gulf Stream Blues (in Barcelona) and Julien Hoez from The French Dispatch (in Brussels) talked about the week that was, and what’s coming next (including Sunday’s presidential election in Poland). Here are some of the Substack posts that were mentioned during the broadcast:

In today’s Substack video I react to the nothing burger that was the UK-EU summit in London yesterday, and talk about why it was the subject of vitriol that seemed to come out of a time machine from 2019. Some of the posts referenced in the video:

Previous posts mentioned in this episode:

I’m at the European Parliament plenary today, and I’ve been speaking with MEPs about the shock news on Tuesday out of Berlin - when incoming chancellor Friedrich Merz was rejected in the first round of the Bundestag vote to appoint him. It is the first time in German history that has happened, and it means that 18 MPs in his own governing coalition voted against him. But because it was a secret ballot, we don’t know whether the dissenters came from the left wing in the SPD or the right wing in the CDU/CSU. In either case, MEPs here in Strasbourg are interpreting this as a signal that Merz will be too distracted with managing his slim-majority coalition at home to become the leader Europe needs right now to defend the continent from Donald Trump.

Meanwhile, this morning MEPs were abuzz with the news that Donald Trump is going to announce a trade deal with a “big country” this afternoon - and that country is reportedly the UK. This will have big implications for the EU-UK summit on 19 May, which I discuss in the video.

Finally, I also discuss today’s vote in Strasbourg to delay car CO2 targets - the latest move to water down the Fit for 55 package of climate laws passed during President von der Leyen’s first term. EU politicians have taken the signal from last June’s EU election, where the Greens and left were decimated and the right made major gains, that voters no longer care about climate change amid the security concerns the world currently faces.

As promised, here are the links which I reference in the video (in the order referenced).

Transport & Environment press release on EP vote to delay car CO2 targets

The media, particularly in the United States, has a tendency to exaggerate the political importance of the papal conclaves. The three that have happened in my lifetime are a media fascination because of their rarity, intrigue and pomp. Nevertheless, at this critical flashpoint in human history, who is chosen as the next pope in the next days, weeks or m…

The shock election victory for Canada’s Liberals can only be explained by one thing: anti-American sentiment. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has shown strength and candour in defending his citizens against American aggression, two things which have not been shown by leaders here in Europe. The lesson for European politicians is clear: embrace Trump…

Happy Liberation Day. Today at 4pm US time (10pm our time) Donald Trump will declare a trade war on the world - with an expected double-digit flat tax on all imports. The world is preparing, With Japan, South Korea and China signing a pact to jointly respond in an announcement from these traditional enemies that shocked the world.

Yesterday President von…

Dave Keating from Gulf Stream Blues and Julien Hoez from The French Dispatch discuss France’s '“I told you so” moment and ask whether there is fault on both sides.

Did arrogance from French politicians over the past decades make France an imperfect messenger for the argument that Europe should free itself from American dominance?

Gulf Stream Blues is a re…

EU prime ministers and presidents are meeting for yet another summit in Brussels to deal with the collapse of the transatlantic alliance - their third in a month. On the table is the massive Rearm Europe plan put forward by President Ursula von der Leyen, which was fully spelled out in a white paper put forward yesterday. Controversially, the €150 billi…

Join me for my next live video in the app

As we close out the week, I wanted to give some analysis of the high-level meetings in Washington this week - and the high-level meeting that didn't happen after EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas was ghosted by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The intention behind the Trump administration’s strategy of freezing out the EU in favor of setting Europe…

Brussels is digesting the first exit poll results which showed both the center right and the far right doing very slightly worse than polls predicted and the liberal FDP doing very slightly better. Those slight amounts, if born out overnight in the actual vote count, would mean another unwieldy three-way coalition.

Here’s my live take as the night is unf…

It’s been a week that’s felt like a year in Europe, with the developments at the NBATO defence ministers summit and Munich Security Conference leading many to declare that this was the week the transatlantic alliance officially collapsed.

In this video I spoke about Macron’s emergency summit in which it became clear that EU leaders are still living with …

European defence ministers are still staggering from the double-whammy at this NATO summit in Brussels following the US announcement that bilateral “peace” talks between Trump and Putin have already started and the US has already conceded that Ukraine will not join NATO and will have to cede territory.