The networks now face a genuine dilemma. Trump’s claims are newsworthy because he’s president, and may use them to justify future government action, but broadcasting demonstrably false allegations also carries legal and journalistic risks. Fox News already paid nearly $800 million after amplifying false claims involving voting machines. How do you cover a president’s speech when you know he may (surely will) manufacture another conspiracy theory in real time?

Meanwhile, Trump is finding new ways to monetize the presidency. Truth Social plans to sell Wall Street early access to posts from Trump and other influential accounts—even though Trump routinely uses the platform to announce decisions that can move financial markets. People who pay will learn what the president has decided before the rest of the country. That is not normal presidential communication. It is selling privileged access to the presidency. Every day, Trump does something 100x worse than all of Hunter Biden’s alleged scandals combined.

The corruption doesn’t end there. A White House teleprompter operator allegedly made around $100,000 placing Kalshi bets on which words Trump would use in speeches he’d already seen. Meanwhile, Donald Trump Jr. and his partners reportedly acquired a 20 percent interest connected to a mining company only six days before the administration announced a Kazakhstan deal involving the company. The White House’s explanation is apparently that Trump knew nothing about it—because extraordinary lucrative coincidences just keep happening around this family.

And finally, the Washington Post had experts examine photos of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, and found that the damage Trump blamed on vandals lined up with seams created during the installation process. The sealant appears to have failed because adjoining sections were allowed to dry too much before being joined. In other words, Trump blamed Antifa, but the evidence points to a botched installation. Yet more incompetence from the “world’s greatest builder.”

I’ll also show you the new tarp Trump put around the drained Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool after reporters couldn’t find the enormous gash his administration claimed was there. Even worse for Trump, attorneys for David Hearn say the photograph of the damaged liner was taken before Hearn ever touched the water -- meaning the damage was already there.

Then there’s Trump reversing restrictions on ICE vehicle stops after MAGA complained; Pete Hegseth turning the Pentagon into a testosterone infomercial while blocking women from becoming Navy admirals; Trump spending $3 billion to keep the National Guard wandering around Washington through 2029; E. Jean Carroll’s devastating description of Trump; and the new Trump gold coin, which joins the ever-growing list of government buildings, programs, ships, passports and public institutions Trump has plastered with his own name and face.

Finally, some genuinely encouraging polling: Democrats, Republicans and even MAGA voters overwhelmingly view Russia as unfriendly or an enemy. Americans sympathize with Ukraine by an enormous margin, and even MAGA voters are narrowly supportive of continued military aid. It has also now been 500 days since Trump told Volodymyr Zelensky that Ukraine had “no cards.”

And during the aftershow, breaking news dropped that JD Vance tried to use Marine Two -- at as much as $24,000 an hour -- to fly his elementary-school-age son to a golf lesson. His own Secret Service detail was apparently so fed up that agents leaked the story.

Donald Trump finally had to pay one of his victims. E. Jean Carroll received $5.6 million in cash after Trump exhausted his appeals in the sexual-abuse and defamation case. That is only the first installment. Juries have ordered Trump to pay Carroll roughly $88 million altogether.

Then we turn to Iran, where Trump’s supposed ceasefire has collapsed, the heavy bombing has resumed, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted. Trump announced that he would charge ships a fee equal to 20% of their cargo for American protection -- then abandoned the idea one day later after claiming that Persian Gulf “kings and emirs” called him. Oil prices are rising again, the nuclear material Trump supposedly started this war over has practically disappeared from the conversation, and America appears to be right back where it started.

We also discuss former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad denying reports that he was secretly an Israeli asset, along with the ten-foot “Iran War Participation Trophy” placed on the National Mall to mock Trump for losing his own war. And Mike Johnson now says Trump needs another $350 billion for the Pentagon, in part to fight “communism” here at home -- while Republicans allow health-insurance subsidies for ordinary Americans to disappear.

ICE has reportedly been ordered to curtail vehicle stops after agents shot and killed two more people. We examine ICE’s justification for one shooting -- that the man might have endangered the public had he escaped -- and why that sounds less like self-defense than an admission that agents killed someone over what he might theoretically do later. These are heavily armed, masked agents being thrown into tense confrontations without the training or judgment necessary to handle them.

Trump is also promising a major Thursday speech about “free and fair elections.” The latest theory is that he will release intelligence about foreign attempts to influence the 2020 election, even though the intelligence community found that no foreign government changed votes or manipulated voting machines. We also look at the Heritage Foundation’s own research showing only ten cases of in-person voter impersonation among billions of ballots and just 41 instances of noncitizens registering, voting or attempting to vote over approximately 50 years. The fraud they claim to be fixing essentially does not exist -- which raises the obvious question of what their election legislation is really designed to accomplish.

Then there are the extraordinary new details surrounding Lindsey Graham’s death. While experiencing chest pains, Graham reportedly called his scheduler and asked her to contact emergency services rather than calling 911 himself. By the time she reached his home, emergency responders had broken down the door and were working on him.

We also revisit Trump’s mysterious Reflecting Pool “gash,” which grew from 250 feet to 300 feet, then 350 feet and finally 300 yards -- even though photographers and reporters examining the drained pool cannot find the supposed gash at all.

Finally, Ukraine’s drone campaign is bringing the war home to Russia. Ukrainian attacks have hit Russia’s largest refineries and helped create a fuel crisis affecting tens of millions of people. Some regions are rationing gasoline, drivers are waiting days in line, and officials are providing food to people stuck at filling stations. Ukraine may not have defeated Russia, but it is inflicting economic pain on a scale ordinary Russians can no longer ignore.

After the news, we discuss TikTok’s live-stream verification system, water-leak alarms, my latest Greek citizenship and passport update, a remarkable old Chicago chart ranking ethnic groups according to their supposed effect on property values, and why families need to identify, preserve and print their old photographs before nobody remembers who is in them.

Then we’ll get into Trump’s new Air Force One debacle. The plane he rushed, the plane he loves, the plane tied to that ridiculous Qatar bribe story, reportedly was not safe enough for him to fly because the Secret Service had concerns about whether it was secure enough. Which is both hilarious and terrifying, because this is exactly what happens every time Trump rushes one of his vanity projects: it breaks, it leaks, or it turns into a national embarrassment.

I’ll also discuss the latest charges over the damaged Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool, and why the legal case may not be as simple as Trump’s people want it to sound. Plus Marco Rubio is now warning more than 60 countries about “transnational far-left terrorism,” because apparently the administration needs a new scary phrase to justify going after the left.

And finally, we’ll talk Ukraine: Kyiv reportedly hit 14 Russian ships in the Sea of Azov, Trump is now suddenly backing Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia, and Ukraine may finally be getting more Patriot missiles -- though, as always, the question is when.

On tonight’s show I’ll be discussing Trump’s Fourth of July debacle — from his late-night speech and delayed fireworks to the horrible air quality that followed — and how his America 250 celebration compared to the massive Bicentennial turnout in 1976.I’ll also be talking about Stephen Miller’s racist Independence Day rant about “third world” immigrants supposedly not inventing anything — when, in fact, the wheel came from Mesopotamia — plus the white supremacists who descended on DC, Trump’s latest attack on Muslim American children, and his disgusting comments about Ilhan Omar and Somali immigrants.Then we’ll look at Trump’s strange new attacks on Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, the controversy over a World Cup red card being overturned for the U.S., Trump loosening gun restrictions for some people previously barred over mental illness, his latest vanity project putting his name on the $100 bill, and his move against the Smithsonian.And finally, we’ll get into the growing split inside MAGA over Ukraine — including Laura Loomer suddenly declaring herself pro-Ukraine — as the U.S. warns Russia could move against Poland and Ukraine urgently asks for more Patriot missiles to stop Russian ballistic attacks.

On tonight’s show I’ll be discussing the continuing Trump Reflecting Pool debacle, and how the story keeps getting more absurd: the supposed 300-foot gash, the box cutter claim, tire damage, hydrogen peroxide, a dead duckling, runaway algae, Trump insisting the pool lining is “so strong” you couldn’t cut it with a knife, and now taxpayers potentially being on the hook because Trump says it wasn’t the contractor’s fault. We’ll also talk about the bizarre new security around the pool, CCTV, police roaming the area, people reportedly being arrested for touching the water, and the National Guard yelling at a Swedish TV crew.Then I’ll get into the latest on Iran: the Strait of Hormuz threat, Iran agreeing again to IAEA inspections, the temporary lifting of 40-year-old oil sanctions worth around $10 billion, Qatar snubbing JD Vance, and warnings that oil could spike as high as $135 a barrel if there isn’t a lasting deal. And of course, the cost to Americans keeps rising, with Moody’s putting the taxpayer and consumer hit from the war at at least $132 billion.I’ll also be talking about Trump attacking Giorgia Meloni again, and Meloni firing back that being Trump’s friend has only hurt her popularity -- and maybe he should worry about his own polls. Plus, the Air Force flu outbreak after mandatory vaccinations were ended, the Justice Department quietly deleting thousands of January 6 press releases, Lawfare restoring them, and Trump’s Arctic people apparently wanting Greenland so they can bring back all-you-can-eat shrimp at Red Lobster.We’ll cover Trump’s latest nonsense about renaming ICE “NICE,” the Trump administration paying hundreds of millions of dollars to cancel more wind projects, and the Qatar “gift” Air Force One that taxpayers still had to spend a billion dollars on -- only for Trump to use it briefly and then apparently hand it off to his library.And finally, I’ll be discussing the latest Ukraine news: the new book alleging Scott Bessent called Zelensky vile names and told Trump not to host him, Zelensky warning Belarus to remove Russian missile guidance systems or Ukraine will do it for them, Ukraine putting pressure on Crimea and the Kerch Bridge, and a Ukrainian drone hitting a target more than 2,000 kilometers from the front. Plus, the Washington Post’s deep dive into Tulsi Gabbard’s cult ties, including documents allegedly showing cult leaders directing her political messaging and boosting her online with fake accounts.

On tonight’s show, I’ll be discussing the latest escalation with Iran, after a U.S. Apache helicopter was shot down near the Strait of Hormuz by an Iranian Shahed drone. The two pilots were rescued and are safe, but Trump first vowed revenge, then said it wasn’t a big deal, while U.S. officials said they still weren’t sure whether Iran actually intended to hit the helicopter.Then we’ll get into the fact that the U.S. launched retaliatory strikes on Iran on Tuesday — and the rather amazing timeline from Ron Filipkowski: CENTCOM says the pilots were rescued at 7:33 PM ET, within two hours of being shot down, while Trump boarded his helicopter from Bedminster to go to the Knicks game at 6:57 PM ET. In other words, he was on his way to the game after the Apache was shot down and before the pilots were rescued.We’ll also talk about Trump claiming yet again that there’s a good chance of a peace deal with Iran in “2 to 3 days” — now supposedly the 37th time he’s claimed this in three months — while JD Vance says it could be a few days or a few months. Trump also admitted he really doesn’t want to go back to bombing Iran, because the Strait of Hormuz could be closed for months and a lot of people could be killed.Then I’ll get into Trump claiming oil and gas prices are not very high right now and are lower than under Biden — which is not true. Gas was around $3 when Biden handed the presidency over to Trump, and now it’s around $4.12.We’ll also cover Trump getting booed at the basketball game and then claiming there was cheering, the report that David Ellison and Paramount intend to have Bari Weiss oversee editorial at CNN if the Paramount-Warner Bros. merger goes through, and former Border Patrol chief Greg Bovino reportedly launching an exploratory committee for a 2028 presidential run.And finally, we’ll look at growing Republican threats against Social Security and Medicare, after Speaker Mike Johnson said Republicans have a plan next year to “adjust and fix” Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, because he says more than 74% of federal spending is on autopilot.Plus, the latest from Ukraine and Russia: Ukraine appears to have set off a car bomb outside Moscow, possibly killing Col. Damir Davydov, Russia’s head of missile procurement; a major Russian gas pipeline blew up in Dagestan; and the EU is now proposing its first-ever entry ban on anyone who has served in the Russian military since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.0:00 Launching the show and getting Instagram, Substack and YouTube set up4:05 Breaking news: the U.S. strikes Iran again4:40 Iranian Shahed drone reportedly takes down a U.S. Apache near the Strait of Hormuz5:20 Trump vows revenge, then suddenly says the helicopter incident is not a big deal7:10 Trump has reportedly claimed a deal was close 37 times in three months9:00 Why saying that publicly is such a dangerous negotiating mistake9:55 Ron Filipkowski’s timeline: Trump leaves for the Knicks game during the pilot rescue10:35 Trump skips his son’s wedding because of “war,” but goes to a basketball game during a rescue mission12:15 Trump gets booed at the basketball game during the national anthem13:20 Video appears to show Trump falling asleep at the game15:00 Trump lies that gas and oil prices are lower than under Biden19:35 Why Trump’s lies mean he will not fix inflation or prices20:00 Trump claims he has already saved people thousands in taxes21:05 Paramount, David Ellison, CBS News and Bari Weiss26:25 Former Border Patrol chief Greg Bovino reportedly eyes a 2028 presidential run27:35 Republicans escalate threats against Social Security and Medicare33:05 Speaker Mike Johnson says Republicans have a plan to “adjust and fix” entitlements next year33:55 Ukraine appears to set off a car bomb outside Moscow37:40 Major Russian gas pipeline explosion in Dagestan38:00 EU proposes entry ban on anyone who served in Russia’s military since the 2022 invasion38:35 Trump’s Beverly Hillbillies-style UFC fight ring at the White House40:10 Trump-backed super PAC schedules a $1 million-per-person fundraiser before the UFC event41:30 Questions about whether fighters could drop out and Trump’s latest merch grift42:30 Live chat break: DC weather, balcony, hydrangeas and plants45:15 Snake plants, mother-in-law’s tongue and a Greek garden shop story50:00 Snake plants can flower — and the smell can be overwhelming52:00 Sasha starts going after the balcony plants and dirt58:00 Sasha begging for food and her evil alter ego, Emmanuel66:00 Sasha gets caught eating the Christmas cactus68:00 Lawsuit seeks to block Trump’s UFC fight at the White House70:00 Legal analysis: temporary event structure versus permanent White House changes72:00 Why the UFC event is tacky, but not as outrageous as destroying the East Wing74:00 Closing thoughts, Crimea gas joke and sign-off

On tonight's show I'll be discussing Trump's latest budget maneuver, including how a controversial $1.8 billion fund may be gone while protections for Trump family business interests remain -- along with reports that Trump himself could personally benefit to the tune of $100 million.We'll also look at Trump's surprising choice to serve as Director of National Intelligence, despite a federal law requiring extensive national security expertise for the position. The nominee is simultaneously serving in multiple other high-level roles, raising questions about qualifications and conflicts. And Dr. Oz has a rather unusual explanation for why Trump keeps undergoing so many medical exams.I'll also cover the growing problems with Trump's much-publicized peace initiative, which appears to be billions of dollars short of what was promised, along with the administration's decision to dismantle a major deep-ocean scientific monitoring system used to track climate change, fisheries, ocean temperatures, and coastal flooding.We'll discuss new data showing that Trump's deployment of the National Guard in Washington, DC failed to reduce violent crime despite costing taxpayers roughly $1.5 million a day, yet the administration is reportedly expanding the deployment anyway.And overseas, I'll cover a massive new Russian assault on Ukraine involving hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles, warnings of an even larger attack to come, and the strange story of several prominent MAGA influencers currently enjoying an all-expenses-paid trip to Russia.00:00 Pre-show tech issues and opening chat02:46 Sasha update and vet visit discussion06:13 Trump's $1.8 billion slush fund collapses but Trump keeps the benefits10:54 Trump's controversial DNI pick Bill Pulte18:34 Dr. Oz explains Trump's repeated medical exams20:00 Trump's "Board of Peace" runs into funding trouble22:10 Trump, foreign money, and Board of Peace questions22:19 Trump administration dismantles ocean monitoring system26:07 National Guard deployment fails to reduce DC violent crime28:11 Massive Russian attack on Ukraine28:24 MAGA influencers accept Russia's all-expenses-paid trip30:00 Russia, propaganda, and conservative influencers35:00 Sasha health update and audience Q&A40:00 Brownie disaster and cooking discussion45:00 Viewer questions and open discussion50:00 Brownie recipe troubleshooting and food talk55:00 Politics and audience discussion60:00 Domestic terrorism and political extremism discussion65:00 Audience Q&A and current events discussion70:00 Final questions, ChatGPT discussion, and wrap-up72:20 Closing remarks

On tonight’s show, I’ll discuss reports that the US and Iran quietly exchanged fire over a 24-hour period, including claims that Iran laid mines in the Gulf and that Iranian air defenses locked onto US fighters after American forces tried to stop them. We’ll also look at signs that Trump may already be softening his position on Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile after Tehran rejected the original US demand. And that matters, because Trump spent weeks insisting Iran would never be allowed to keep enriched uranium under any deal.I’ll also cover a major new corruption story involving a Trump-family-linked Kazakh mining company that reportedly received a $900 million taxpayer-backed credit line from a federal agency. Then we’ll get into explosive new reporting about Kremlin propaganda operations after hackers breached the internal chats of a Russian PR firm allegedly tied to Moscow’s disinformation campaigns. The leaked messages reportedly show Russian operatives celebrating fake stories about Ukraine, fake scandals targeting foreign leaders, and even vandalism operations in France designed to inflame tensions and manipulate public opinion.And finally, we’ll talk about Ukraine and the growing fear that Russia may be preparing a massive strike on Kyiv -- and whether Ukraine could retaliate with a major attack on Moscow itself. Plus audience questions, discussion about the show, and some updates on Sasha.0:00 -- Getting the livestream started / delayed show tonight1:00 -- Update on Sasha and her walk today3:15 -- US and Iran reportedly exchanged fire over 24 hours6:40 -- Iran laying mines / US response / SAMs reportedly locking onto US aircraft13:08 -- Trump appears to soften position on Iran enriched uranium17:50 -- Why Trump’s uranium comments matter politically and diplomatically23:47 -- Trump corruption watch -- Trump-linked Kazakh mining company and $900 million taxpayer-backed credit line24:12 -- New hacked files reveal Kremlin propaganda operations25:20 -- Russian disinformation campaigns targeting Ukraine and Europe26:15 -- Fake Zelensky luxury apartment story pushed by Russian operatives27:10 -- Armenian prime minister disinformation operation27:55 -- Discussion of retired US General Paul Vallely and alleged Russian media influence efforts28:34 -- Russian-linked vandalism targeting mosques and Islamic cultural centers in France30:05 -- Ukraine war escalation concerns31:10 -- Could Ukraine launch a major retaliatory strike on Moscow?33:00 -- Audience questions and broader discussion

On tonight’s show, I’ll be discussing Trump’s incoherent new claims about Iran and the Strait of Hormuz -- one minute saying we have “total control,” the next minute basically admitting we don’t -- as Iran hardens its position on near-weapons-grade uranium and reportedly looks for ways to formalize its control over maritime traffic through the Strait. And while Trump keeps trying to sell strength, US intelligence reportedly says Iran is already rebuilding parts of its drone program faster than expected after the US-Israeli strikes.I’ll also get into the truly obscene effort to create a taxpayer-funded payday for January 6 rioters and Trump allies -- including Enrique Tarrio, other convicted rioters demanding millions, and Mike Lindell claiming he lost $400 million. Even some Republicans are now calling this out, with one GOP senator calling the whole thing “stupid on stilts,” because apparently there are still a few people in Washington who remember that Americans are worried about groceries (such an old word!), rent, mortgages, and gas -- not handing out a billion-dollar slush fund to insurrectionists.And we’ll talk about the broader Trump corruption machine: the so-far failed push for ballroom money, Trump’s arch getting approved even though Congress hasn’t paid for it, the RJ Reynolds vape-regulation payoff story, Trump blurting out that we have CIA operatives in Cuba, Fox’s own polling showing Americans hate his handling of the economy, and the Washington Post’s look at how Trump’s second-term rhetoric has gotten even more vulgar, insulting, and self-obsessed. Plus: CNN debunks Trump’s insane claim that Jesus would have counted California for him, FIFA hotel cancellations, a missing GOP congressman, Don Jr.’s wedding drama, and the ex-gay leader arrested in a horrifying, yet not surprising, underage sex sting.0:00 — Welcome, YouTube and Substack2:22 — Saturday coffee talk reminder3:14 — Trump’s Iran chaos and shifting threats4:15 — Iran hardens its position on near-weapons-grade uranium8:14 — Trump says we have “total control” of the Strait of Hormuz -- then admits we don’t10:43 — Iran, Oman, and the idea of a permanent Strait of Hormuz toll system12:39 — CNN report: Iran rebuilding military capabilities faster than expected14:28 — January 6 rioters line up for taxpayer-funded payouts14:54 — Enrique Tarrio wants millions after seditious conspiracy conviction17:00 — Mike Lindell claims he lost $400 million19:50 — Todd Blanche’s stunning answer on people who hurt police getting taxpayer money24:00 — GOP unease grows over Trump’s January 6 slush fund25:25 — Trump’s ballroom money runs into Republican resistance25:45 — Thom Tillis calls the fund “stupid on stilts”28:07 — Trump’s arch, the ballroom, and the cult-of-personality spending spree30:04 — Bill Cassidy warns Americans care about rent, groceries, gas -- not Trump’s payout fund34:30 — Fox poll: cost of living is the top worry, and Trump’s economy numbers are brutal35:01 — RJ Reynolds, Trump, RFK Jr., and the flavored vape regulation story36:12 — Trump confirms CIA operatives in Cuba36:20 — Washington Post analysis of Trump’s more vulgar, insulting second-term rhetoric36:34 — Trump’s ridiculous Jesus-and-California vote-counting claim38:08 — FIFA hotel cancellations in major US cities38:48 — Missing GOP congressman Tom Kean and 88 missed House votes42:14 — Trump maybe skipping Don Jr.’s wedding47:54 — Ex-gay leader Alan Chambers arrested51:58 — Breaking Reuters update: Trump flip-flops on Poland54:00 — Allergy shot pain, Trump lying, and side discussion58:00 — Ukrainian design and show-and-tell tangent62:00 — Cuban arrest story and Homeland Security press release confusion72:00 — Using ChatGPT to rewrite a terrible government press release76:00 — Why the DHS/ICE release is written so badly80:00 — Wrap-up

Take Iran. At the beginning of the war, Trump and his allies kept trying to tell us this wasn’t about regime change. Then it was about regime change. Then it wasn’t. Then maybe it was “liberation.” Or nukes. Then it was back to being something else entirely. And now we have this absolutely bizarre report that the Israeli strike that hit former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was tied to a plan to free him, and potentially use him as part of some larger regime-change play.

Ahmadinejad. Seriously.

This is not some heroic Iranian dissident, waiting in the wings with a Jefferson quote and a clean transition plan. This is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad -- Holocaust denier, anti-American, pro-nuclear, former face of the Iranian regime. A nutjob. And a dangerous one.

And according to the NYT, Ahmadinejad was reportedly consulted about the plan — so whether he officially “agreed” or not, he was allegedly in on it. But then, the Times says, he got injured in the Israeli attack that was attack that was supposed free him from house arrest, and then became disillusioned with the whole thing. Which, if true, raises the obvious question: What exactly was the plan here? Because if your “freedom” strategy for Iran involves bombing a former hardline Iranian president out of house arrest so he can take over the regime, that’s not liberation.

It also means Trump lied. Again. He never intended to free the Iranian people.

Meanwhile, at home, the Senate, for now, stripped the $1 billion for Trump’s White House ballroom project from the Reconciliation bill because Republicans didn’t have the votes. GOP Senator John Kennedy said the votes weren’t there and they would lose if they put it up for a vote today. Good. They should lose. We’re talking about a billion dollars for yet another Trump vanity project, while Americans are still paying more for everything.

Then there’s other piece of this. The IRS settlement. Trump sued the IRS, demanding at least $10 billion over the leak of his tax information. And IRS lawyers, we find out today, thought they could fight the case and win. But somehow, magically, the Justice Department didn’t fight it. They didn’t even show up in court to contest Trump’s bogus claims. Instead, they created an extraordinary $1.8 billion fund that could be used to fund Trump’s political allies, including the insurrectionists who tried to violently overthrow our government on January 6.

And while Trump claims he won’t be eligible for the billion-dollar-bribe, he kinda sorta is. It seems the IRS is — well, was — going after Trump for possibly as high as $100 million in back taxes. Now he’s owes nothing, thanks to the sweetheart deal.

Funny how that works.

Interestingly, some Republicans are saying no. Mike Pence says January 6 defendants shouldn’t receive taxpayer compensation. Considering they were calling for him to be hanged, this isn’t surprising. But Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick now says he’ll oppose the whole settlement agreement. That’s good news. And Democrats are looking at reconciliation amendments to go after the fund.

This isn’t complicated. People who attacked the Capitol shouldn’t get paid by the taxpayers because Trump found a way to launder their grievances into a settlement fund. And that’s the through-line here. Whether it’s Iran, Cuba, the IRS, the ballroom, Greenland, or anything else, Trump keeps using the machinery of government as if it’s his own personal property.

So, yes, tonight had fewer stories than usual. But the stories all point in the same sad direction. Trump’s foreign policy is reckless. His domestic policy is corrupt. His governing style is chaos. His excuses are paper-thin. And every time you pull on one thread -- Iran, the IRS, Cuba, Greenland, USAID and Ebola -- you end up at the same place: Trump treats public power as private property, then acts offended when anyone notices.

And then, because the news apparently wasn’t weird enough, we ended tonight’s show talking about haunted apartments, strange noises, and the old South Side Chicago Mary Worth mirror story (otherwise known as Bloody Mary).

Honestly, at this point, Mary Worth showing up in the mirror might be one of the more positive things coming out of Washington of late. Have a good night, see you all tomorrow for more. JOHN

This new fund would reportedly be run by a tiny group of people appointed by Todd Blanche — Trump’s own loyalist at the Justice Department — and Trump can fire any of them at will. So the man who benefits politically from the payouts also gets a government-controlled process to decide who gets paid. Little transparency. Lots of formal apologies. Cash relief. All for the supposed victims of a “weaponized” justice system.

And who are we talking about? January 6 defendants. Tina Peters. Likely people who assaulted police officers. JD Vance was asked whether people who the cops on January 6 should be ruled out from getting taxpayer money. He wouldn’t say yes. Instead, he started talking about the “kangaroo courts” that convicted the seditionists — which is the tell. It’s not enough that these crooks are running around free. Trump wants to delegitimize the courts that convicted them in the first place.

That’s the authoritarian move. The courts aren’t courts anymore. The convictions aren’t real. The criminals are the victims. And the taxpayers get the bill.

At the same time, this settlement will force the IRS to drop current investigations into Trump, his family, and his businesses — and block future investigations for any crimes committed before the settlement. Which is basically Trump finding a backdoor way to pardon himself on taxes — his government negotiates a settlement that kneecaps the IRS.

And then Trump claimed today that he knows “very little” about the settlement. Please. This was his lawsuit. He sued the government, well, he sued himself. He also agreed to settle it. And now we’re supposed to believe he had no idea what was in the settlement of his own lawsuit? Everything is a lie with this guy, everything.

Meanwhile, Trump is scaling back US military commitments to NATO, which is exactly the kind of signal Vladimir Putin wants to hear. If you tell Russia that America is less likely to defend Europe, you don’t prevent war. You invite it. Dictators do cost-benefit analyses. Trump is lowering the cost of war, in Europe and Asia.

Then there’s Iran. Trump keeps pretending he’s on the verge of a deal, but Iran’s public demands don’t look like surrender. Iran still wants the right to enrich uranium. They want sanctions relief. They want frozen funds released. They want the naval blockade ended. They want compensation. Other than that, total capitulation.

And while this chaos threatens to raise gas prices, Trump’s answer is that the price increases are “peanuts.” Peanuts, he said today. That’s easy to say when you’re Donald Trump. It’s a little different if you’re a normal person trying to afford gas, groceries (an old word no one uses anymore, according to Trump), rent, and everything else that’s gone through the roof since Trump imposed his tariffs, and now the war.

There was also the public-health disaster brewing around Ebola, right as the World Cup is headed to the US. Trump and Musk’s DOGE boys gutted foreign-aid and disease-monitoring programs because they decided keeping people alive overseas was somehow wasteful. Now Ebola is spreading, the US is banning entry from certain affected countries, and one of the teams headed to the World Cup is from the Democratic Republic of Congo, ground zero for the latest outbreak.

In other Trump screw ups today, Trump announced he’s backing Ken Paxton over John Cornyn in Texas, potentially turning a safe Republican Senate seat into a gift for Democrats. Trump lied about the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, called it a “lake,” then suggested that Obama spent $200m on it, which he didn’t. Louisiana’s GOP governor is in Greenland, offering children cookies as part of Trump’s creepy imperial cosplay. And Giorgia Meloni gave a stronger statement on Ukraine than half the American right.

And finally, the Trump phone is back in the news. The long-promised Trump Mobile review unit finally appears, preloaded with Truth Social, labeled “Proudly Assembled in the USA,” and decorated with an American flag that has 11 stripes.

Eleven.

There are 13 stripes on the American flag. For the original 13 colonies. This is not a hard test. If you’re going to wrap your cheap political grift in the flag, maybe count the stripes first.

But that’s the whole thing in miniature. Trumpism sells cheap knockoff patriotism made in China, and it can’t even get the flag right. It screams law and order, then pays the people who attacked the police. It claims to fight corruption, then creates a secretive $1.8 billion payout machine for Trump’s friends. It claims strength abroad, then signals weakness to Putin and Xi, and chaos to Iran.

The brand is nationalism. The product is corruption. And we’re the ones footing the bill.

One day he was threatening to bomb Iran. The next, he was announcing that he’s “holding off” because Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE had supposedly asked him to wait while “serious negotiations” were taking place.

That’s Trump’s usual routine: threaten Armageddon, scare everybody, then climb down and pretend the climbdown was some masterstroke of diplomacy.

And the bigger problem is that everyone else is now supposed to clean up the mess Trump created. There’s an argument out there that NATO should rush navies into the Persian Gulf to help keep the Strait of Hormuz open. Thomas Friedman made it this weekend in the NYT. I get the logic. The Strait matters. Oil matters. Global commerce matters. But the problem is, Trump started this. Trump escalated it. Trump’s the one continuing to make a clusterF of this entire situation. So why exactly should Europe rush in to save him from the consequences of his own chaos?

And that’s the broader theme here: Trump’s weakness is not keeping us out of war. It’s making war more likely. Look at Taiwan. At his China summit, when asked for a concrete win, Trump said his win was that he has a good relationship with Xi. Great. Meanwhile, Trump sure made Xi ecstatic by talking about Taiwan like it’s a small island too far away to defend, blamed previous presidents for the problem, said Taiwan stole our chip industry, and suggested companies should just move chip manufacturing back to the US.

That’s not deterrence. It’s an engraved invitation for China to invade. Trump is telling hostile powers, yet again, that America doesn’t really want to fight for its allies. And the irony is that this kind of weakness doesn’t prevent wars. It encourages them.

Then there’s the corruption. Trump’s financial disclosures show more than 3,700 trades in the first quarter alone -- tens of millions of dollars, more than 40 trades a day, involving companies with business before his administration. The details are breathtaking, and yet not surprising. Trump praises a company publicly, and around the same time there are stock purchases. This isn’t normal. This isn’t “business as usual.” This is a presidency that increasingly looks like a hedge fund with nuclear codes.

And while that’s happening, we’ve got the rest of the Trump circus: an ICE agent charged after allegedly shooting an immigrant in the leg; Trump’s attorney general still pushing election-rigging claims while admitting they’re having a hard time finding proof; the EPA moving to weaken protections against “forever chemicals” in drinking water (yeah!); Kash Patel getting a VIP snorkel near the USS Arizona, where more than 900 US sailors and Marines are entombed; and Trump’s public-health team including a penile implant expert connected to something called “Erection Connection.”

Because of course.

The polling is brutal too. Americans are angry about the economy. Trump’s inflation numbers continue to be terrible. His support among white non-college voters -- the core Trump base -- has dropped sharply. And on Iran, the public is not buying what he’s selling. Most Americans don’t think going to war with Iran was right. And even Republican support for the war is below where it should be.

Meanwhile, Ukraine may finally be seeing sustained territorial gains against Russia for the first time since late 2023. That matters. Putin’s entire strategy depends on grinding Ukraine down and convincing the West that time is on his side. If Russia is losing ground, getting hit at home, and facing new pressure, that theory starts to crack.

And then, because apparently the news wasn’t already stupid enough, Elon Musk melted down over Lupita Nyong’o being cast as Helen of Troy. His argument was that Helen is part of “European literature,” and therefore she simply must be portrayed as white. But Helen’s claim to fame wasn’t that she was white. She was Greek. Mythological, yes, but Greek. The daughter of Zeus, for God’s sake. Elon turned Homer into a white-pride grievance session, because that’s what these guys do. Everything becomes a culture-war tantrum. Everything has to pit us against each other, when sometimes a movie is just a movie.

So tonight’s show was really about one thing: The chaos is not accidental. The weakness, the corruption, the incompetence, the fake victimhood, the religious sycophancy, the endless threats followed by retreats -- that’s Trumpism. And sadly, it’s becoming America.

And Trump’s first big readout was about his ballroom.

Not Iran. Not energy. Not the Strait of Hormuz. His ballroom. “China has a Ballroom, and so should the U.S.A.!” Then he praised Xi Jinping as one of the world’s “great leaders.” So the president of the United States goes to China, supposedly needing leverage over the communist dictator, and his public message is flattery for Xi and a commercial for his own construction project.

And it, of course, then got worse. Trump appeared to repeat the idea that America was in decline — an opinion he attributed to Xi — exactly the kind of propaganda line foreign dictators love hearing from an American president. Then, when a reporter pressed Trump, because Xi apparently had not said what Trump claimed he said, Trump basically admitted it may not have been Xi after all. “It might not have been from him,” he said.

Great. So the president is praising Xi, trashing America, and then can’t even keep straight who supposedly said what.

And while Trump is overseas getting played, the corruption back home is as blatant as ever. According to ABC, Trump is expected to drop his $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS in exchange for the creation of a $1.7 billion fund to compensate his allies who claim they were wrongfully targeted by the Biden administration. And this fund could reportedly include January 6 insurrectionists. The IRS also could be forbidden from auditing Trump, his family, or his companies. Oversight and transparency could be stripped away. Trump could reportedly remove members of the commission running the fund without cause. And the commission would not have to disclose how it decides who gets money.

Right. So, Trump sues the government. Then he becomes the government. Then Trump, as the government, settles with himself in a way that could create a $1.7 billion grievance fund for his political allies (and family and businesses), potentially including January 6 domestic terrorists, while also shielding Trump-world from IRS scrutiny.

This is not normal.

And while one idea under consideration is barring Trump from directly receiving payments tied to those claims, entities associated with Trump are not explicitly barred from filing additional claims. So even the supposed guardrail comes with a giant asterisk that Trump can easily get around — just give Trump Inc. a billion, and they can cut Trump a check from their new-found wealth.

Meanwhile, regular Americans are falling behind. Credit-card delinquencies are at their highest level since 2011. Student-loan delinquencies are at their highest since 2020. Auto-loan delinquencies are at the highest level on record. That’s the real economy for a lot of people right now. Not Trump’s ballroom. Not his arch. Not the golf course (yeah, we found this week he’s also spending federal money on one of those too). Not the billionaire grievance fund. People are missing payments. People are getting crushed.

And the Republican response? Here’s GOP congressman Jim Jordan today, talking to CNN about inflation: “That’s life.”

Yeah, that’s life.

Prices up? That’s life.

Debt delinquencies rising? That’s life.

Mortgage rates jumping? That’s life.

Oil prices threatening gas prices? That’s life.

But somehow there’s always time for Trump’s arch, Trump’s ballroom, Trump’s legal settlement, Trump’s allies, Trump’s revenge machine, and Trump’s protection racket.

Then there’s Iran. Trump wants to claim total victory. He wants the clean TV version: we bombed, we won, everyone clapped. But reality doesn’t work that way. Iran’s enriched uranium problem didn’t magically disappear because Trump needed a victory lap. And when David Sanger of The New York Times pressed him on Iran, Trump lost it and started throwing around “treason” language. Because that’s what authoritarians do. (It’s also what dumb people do.) They don’t answer hard questions. They criminalize them.

That’s the whole Trump story: he flatters dictators, punishes allies, rewards cronies, shrugs at your pain, and calls it leadership.

It isn’t leadership. It’s corruption. Pure and simple.

I also get into the Iran war polling, and it’s brutal. A majority of Americans oppose the war, only 30% support it, and even among Republicans the support isn’t exactly overwhelming. That matters because Trump sold himself as the guy who was going to fix everything -- prices, wars, the economy, the whole mess. Instead, we’re getting higher prices, a new war, farmers who can’t afford fertilizer, and a president obsessed with vanity projects, gold statues, golf courses, and triumphal arches. The man is literally trying to build himself an arch while people are getting crushed by prices.

And then we get into the corruption file, because somehow it keeps getting worse. Kash Patel appears to be gaming the FBI’s Ten Most Wanted list for headlines, and then we learn his Hawaii trip included a “VIP snorkel” session at Pearl Harbor. The Trump Justice Department is dropping charges against billionaire Gautam Adani after one of Trump’s personal lawyers gets involved. Paramount is talking to Katie Miller about a podcast deal while its Warner Bros. merger needs Trump’s approval. More than 100 ambassador posts are sitting empty, troops are being pulled from Europe, and then in the back half of the show we get into the truly disgusting possible settlement scheme to hand taxpayer money to January 6 people. It’s corruption, incompetence, authoritarianism, and grift -- all wrapped into one very expensive disaster.

YouTube timestamps

0:00 -- Opening the show and setting up the night’s topics2:30 -- Trump in China while prices explode back home4:57 -- Trump praises Xi Jinping as a “great leader”6:12 -- Trump’s bizarre Chinese restaurants comment9:33 -- Grocery prices are exploding under Trump11:05 -- Fruits and vegetables spike hard in April12:00 -- Tomatoes, coffee, beef, diesel, and the food supply chain13:54 -- Farmers can’t afford fertilizer for 202615:00 -- Why Trump’s economic mess is starting to look politically dangerous16:12 -- New Iran war polling shows Americans oppose Trump’s war17:38 -- Trump’s proposed triumphal arch and the contract end-run21:50 -- Trump’s DC golf course renovation while people get crushed by prices24:20 -- Kash Patel and the FBI Ten Most Wanted list stunt26:36 -- The Adani case and Trump’s Justice Department reversal28:22 -- Paramount, Katie Miller, and the Warner Bros. merger politics30:50 -- A UN corruption anecdote and how influence really works37:24 -- More than 100 US ambassador posts are empty37:47 -- Pentagon cancels troop deployment to Poland39:00 -- Why Trump keeps making moves that help Russia41:02 -- Generic ballot polling shows independents swinging hard toward Democrats43:41 -- Kash Patel’s Pearl Harbor “VIP snorkel” trip46:50 -- The possible Trump IRS settlement scheme49:56 -- A proposed $1.7 billion fund for Trump allies50:57 -- Taxpayer money for January 6 extremists55:00 -- Trump’s corruption, inflation, fertilizer, and the broader economic damage60:03 -- Egg prices ease, but the larger grocery problem remains61:00 -- Trump, retribution, Comey, and the collapse of rule-of-law norms62:00 -- The larger Trump grift machine65:00 -- Closing chat, dog cameo, and lighter end-of-show conversation73:19 -- Wrapping up and preparing a TikTok follow-up on Trump corruption

I also get into the Iran mess, including Don Jr.’s hilariously badly aged tweet bragging that Trump would keep us out of a “full-blown war with Iran.” Also, Trump was asked about inflation and basically admitted the war is hurting the economy, while still lying about what inflation was before the war.

Then we move through the corruption and chaos parade: Trump’s ballroom costs exploding, the Reflecting Pool contractor mess, the Wall Street Journal saying Trump’s DOJ subpoenaed reporter records over an Iran story, Trump raising doubts about Taiwan arms sales before meeting Xi, and the administration’s dangerous lack of health leadership as hantavirus concerns grow.

And then there’s the full-on Trump meltdown: 55 posts in three hours last night, full of treason accusations, Obama conspiracies, Dominion lies, Jack Smith revenge fantasies, and whatever else was ricocheting around his brain late at night. I also cover the Trump sons’ Kazakhstan mining deal, Sean Duffy’s reality-show access scandal, Ukraine’s new defense-tech deal with the US, Trump’s $1.2 trillion “Golden Dome” fantasy, and Russia attacking US-linked firms in Ukraine while the White House stays silent.

The through-line is simple: Trump promised strength, peace, lower prices, and competence. What we’re getting is inflation, war, corruption, chaos, and Russia-First foreign policy.

Reuters says two out of three Americans don’t think Trump has clearly explained why the US has gone to war with Iran. Every time Trump talks about it, the rationale changes. First it was the nuclear program. Then it was Iran’s uranium. Then it was terrorism. Then it was regime behavior. Then, suddenly, the uranium buried under rubble wasn’t such a big deal because, according to Trump, Space Force is watching it and we’ll just blow people up if they go near it.

And keep in mind the larger absurdity here: Virtually every gram of Iran’s highly enriched uranium was produced after Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal. He tore up the agreement, didn’t replace it with anything, so Iran got back to work being a nuclear baddy. So now we’re supposed to pretend the solution to Trump’s first mistake is Trump starting a war to clean up the mess he helped create. And so far, the war doesn’t appear to be solving anything.

Then there’s the Pentagon side of this. Senator Mark Kelly says the hit to US weapons stockpiles is serious -- Tomahawks, ATACMS, SM-3s, THAAD rounds, Patriot interceptors. These aren’t magic weapons that replenish themselves because Trump says “America First” three times in a mirror. These systems take years to replace. Which means Trump’s Iran war could weaken our ability to respond to a future conflict with China, for example.

Meanwhile, the rest of tonight’s show is basically a guided tour through the Trump corruption-and-crazy machine. The reflecting pool project that started at $1.8 million, then $7 million, and now $13.1 million. Sean Duffy taking a seven-month family vacation, reportedly paid for by companies his department regulates, while still serving as Transportation Secretary. Trump heading to China with Elon Musk and Tim Cook. The US sanctioning an International Criminal Court judge so aggressively that hotel reservations, wire transfers, credit cards, packages, and even insurance become a problem.

And then, because the fever dream never ends, Trump is spreading vaccine misinformation again, talking about babies getting “a vat” of vaccines, which is not how children’s vaccines work. He’s now talking about making Venezuela the 51st state because of oil, and because, in his mind, “Venezuela loves Trump.” He appeared to fall asleep again in the Oval Office, while the White House insisted he was just blinking for 30 seconds. And the IRS is reportedly in talks to settle Trump’s $10 billion lawsuit — meaning, Trump will decide whether, and how much, the US government settles with himself.

So tonight’s show is Iran first, because that’s the real-world crisis. But the larger story is the same one we keep seeing: Trump creates chaos, calls it strength, leaves everyone else to pay the bill, and then moves on to the next scam.

That’s not leadership. That’s just MAGA.

Tonight’s show started with the political map, because Republicans just got a very real gift. The Virginia Supreme Court struck down the Democratic redistricting plan, and combined with the Supreme Court gutting the Voting Rights Act, Republicans may now have a much easier path to holding the House. Democrats can still win. Trump is still unpopular. Republicans still have no message beyond chaos, cruelty, and “please ignore the prices.” But the road just got harder. And that’s the point. When Republicans can’t win the argument, they try to change the map before voters even get a say.

Then there’s Trump’s billion-dollar ballroom. Republicans are reportedly freaking out about having to vote for a billion dollars tied to Trump’s ballroom while Americans are getting crushed by inflation, gas prices, and basic costs. And they should freak out. It’s insane. Trump keeps pretending prices are fine. He says consumer confidence is “way up.” It isn’t. He says gas prices are way down. They’re not. Gas is still way up from January — up 66% on average — and families are looking at summer vacations that cost thousands of dollars and deciding to stay home. That’s not confidence.

And then we got into Iran, where Trump is trying to sell two completely opposite stories at the same time. On the one hand, peace is supposedly right around the corner. Iran could respond to the latest US proposal any minute. A deal could be close. On the other hand, US and Iranian forces are still clashing in the Gulf, the UAE is reportedly under attack again, and US forces just hit two Iranian-flagged oil tankers. So which is it? Are we ending the war, or escalating it?

The worst part is the war’s original justification keeps getting weaker. Joe Kent, Trump’s former counterterrorism official who quit in protest the other week, says the US intelligence community assessed before the war that Iran was not developing a nuclear weapon -- and that attacking Iran would likely lead to exactly what we’re seeing now: retaliation, threats to US bases, and the Strait of Hormuz becoming a global economic choke point. In other words, the experts warned Trump. He did it anyway. Now Trump needs an off-ramp, because the war didn’t deliver the magic victory he promised.

And markets aren’t buying the spin either. Wall Street has moved from TACO to their new phrase for Trump, NACHO -- “Not A Chance Hormuz Opens” -- because investors increasingly don’t believe Trump can just bluster the world’s most important shipping lanes back into normality.

We also talked about the hantavirus outbreak on a cruise ship, which would be alarming enough on its own, except RFK Jr. fired the CDC unit that actually handled cruise ship outbreaks. Trump’s response was basically, “hope it’s under control.” Very reassuring. Nothing says public health leadership like dismantling the fire department and then hoping the smoke clears itself.

And yes, we got UFO files. The administration still hasn’t released all the Epstein files, but hey, here are some unidentified aerial phenomena. I’m pro-UFO transparency, actually. I’m also pro-not using UFOs as a shiny object while everything else burns.

Then we wrapped with the fun stuff: Greek citizenship, language learning, old IDs, bad hair, good hair, alleged celebrity lookalikes, and the fact that by Monday night, I should officially be a European citizen. No passport yet. No maroon EU document to clutch dramatically to my chest. (That’ll come in a few months.) But after fifteen years of fighting with documents, registries, spellings, and bureaucracies, I’m taking the oath at the Greek embassy on Monday. And honestly, after this week’s news, having one foot in Europe doesn’t sound so bad.

That was basically the headline tonight. Right before the show started, we got breaking news that the US had struck Iran again. And the reason was just as insane as everything else in this war: Iran had reportedly attacked US Navy ships again in the Strait of Hormuz, after doing the same thing days earlier. Trump didn’t respond the first time, which was basically an engraved invitation for Iran to try it again. So they did. And now Trump is retaliating days late, in the middle of supposed peace negotiations, while still insisting the ceasefire is somehow intact.

That’s not a ceasefire.

And the timing matters. Because the actual news before the bombs started flying again was that Iran was reportedly considering a one-page proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and stop the fighting for 30 days while the two sides negotiate a bigger settlement. The basic framework is simple: lift the US blockade on Iranian ships and ports, reopen the strait to commercial traffic, stop the fighting, and then spend the next month fighting over the hard stuff. And the hard stuff is still the nuclear program. The US wants Iran to hand over its highly enriched uranium and suspend enrichment for 20 years. Iran is offering less: dilute some uranium, send some to a third country, possibly Russia, and suspend enrichment for maybe 10 to 15 years.

That’s at least a negotiation. It’s not peace. It’s not surrender. But it’s a path away from the cliff.

The problem is Trump keeps pretending he’s already won. And US intelligence is saying the opposite. According to a CIA analysis, Iran can survive the US naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more serious economic pain. US intel also reportedly says Iran still has about 75% of its mobile launchers and about 70% of its prewar missile stockpiles. Trump claimed this week that their missiles were “mostly decimated.” That, we now know, is a lie.

And that’s the problem with having a pathological liar run a war. Americans are supposed to judge whether this war is working based on what the president tells us. Congress is supposed to decide whether to support it based on what the president tells us. But if the president is lying about Iran’s economy, lying about Iran’s missile capacity, lying about the ceasefire, and lying about how much leverage we have, then nobody can make an informed judgment about anything.

Meanwhile, Americans to continue to pay the price. Gas is up. Oil is volatile. Ground beef is at $6.70/pound nationally. And Republicans are suddenly quoting Biden’s energy secretary saying presidents don’t control gas prices. That’s adorable. Under Biden, every penny at the pump was supposedly his fault. Under Trump, after Trump himself brags that he shut down the Strait of Hormuz, suddenly gas prices are just vibes. Except Trump admitted this week that oil could have gone to $200, and he said it would have been worth it. Worth it to whom? Because $200 oil isn’t a strategy. It’s $10 gas and a recession, and a lot of empty American wallets.

And then there’s the corruption circus, because there’s always a corruption circus with this guy. Trump’s ballroom is now looking less like a $400 million vanity project and more like a $1.4 billion taxpayer-funded monument to one man’s ego. The Qatari 747 “gift” keeps getting worse, because experts say the plane can’t possibly be properly secured in a few months, but Trump wants to use it anyway -- meaning the president may conduct sensitive national-security business on an insecure plane. And then, apparently, the plane eventually gets parked at the Trump library, where Trump can use it after leaving office. So we pay billions to secure it, and he gets the toy. Nice scam if you can get it.

We also talked about the DOJ investigating suspicious oil trades made right before Trump’s Iran announcements -- trades that reportedly made more than $2.6 billion. That investigation is either going to be fascinating, or dead after they find out who was making the bets, and whether his last name starts with a T. Meanwhile, FBI Director Kash Patel is reportedly in panic mode, polygraphing staffers to find leakers while also claiming the stories they’re leaking are false. Which is a little awkward, because if the stories are false, what exactly are people leaking?

Then came acting Attorney General Todd Blanche floating the idea of Border Patrol or ICE agents at polling places. Armed agents. Probably masked. At voting locations. In America. And he asks, “What’s the risk?” The risk is voter intimidation. The risk is scaring Latinos and Black voters away from the polls. The risk is turning US elections into a cosplay version of Russia, where Putin “only” wins by 87% or so.

And, because these guys are simply tone deaf about the economic pain people are facing, Trump now has a 20-foot gold statue of himself at his Doral club in Miami. Real gold, apparently. Inflation is raging, people are paying more for food, health premiums are soaring (because Trump refused to renew the ACA subsidies), and Trump is tweeting gold statues of himself. Nero fiddled. Trump gilds.

We closed with Kamala Harris reportedly thinking about another run, which I’m not sold on; Joe Rogan trying to soften Nick Fuentes’ Holocaust denial as merely “debating the numbers,” which is simply vile; Trump’s weird bruised hands and a mystery dentist visit; and Marco Rubio going to see Pope Leo XIV and giving him a crystal football. Yes, the Pope gave Rubio a peace plant. Rubio gave the Pope a State Department paperweight shaped like something you’d buy in an airport gift shop. The pope’s reaction was literally: “Wow. Okay.”

Yeah, Pope, we know.

That’s tonight’s top story. Trump says he’s close to a deal with Iran. He also says if Iran doesn’t agree, the bombing starts again at an even higher level. Which is funny, because usually when someone is close to a deal, they don’t threaten to blow the other side up again five minutes later.

And the reported deal is not some grand, final settlement. It’s a one-page memorandum of understanding. Basically, a concept of a deal. A 30-day negotiating window. Iran agrees not to seek a nuclear weapon. There may be enhanced inspections. The Strait of Hormuz gets reopened. The US gradually lifts sanctions and releases billions in frozen Iranian funds.

Sound familiar?

Trump attacked Obama for years over sanctions relief and frozen Iranian assets. He was still ranting about it to children the other day. And now his own proposed framework reportedly includes sanctions relief and releasing frozen Iranian money. So either Trump doesn’t understand his own deal, doesn’t remember what he said yesterday, or just assumes his supporters won’t notice that this is Obama bis, the deal he threw out years ago.

But the larger question is uglier: What did this war actually accomplish?

US intelligence reportedly says Iran is still 9 to 12 months away from building a nuclear weapon if it chooses to do so. That’s where Iran was a few months ago, before Trump started bombing. So after two months of war, over a dozen American service members dead, countless Iranian civilians killed, tens of billions of US tax dollars spent, gas prices up -- and Iran’s nuclear timeline may not have changed at all.

That’s not “obliteration.”

And that’s not just my view. Former officials are saying the same thing. The regime is still intact. The nuclear program is still intact. The missile program was degraded, not destroyed. Iran’s support for proxies is still alive. The enriched uranium wasn’t removed. The ballistic missile program wasn’t ended. The Iranian people weren’t liberated. So again: what exactly did we buy with all this money, blood, and risk?

Then there’s the rest of the Trump show, because of course there is.

Kash Patel, the FBI director, is angry about The Atlantic reporting on allegations of erratic behavior and drinking. So now there are reports that the FBI is investigating the journalist who embarrassed him, claiming someone inside the FBI leaked her information. Which raises the obvious question: If Patel says the story was fake, how exactly was there a leak? If the story was made up, there was no leak. If FBI sources talked to the reporter, then maybe the story wasn’t made up after all. Pick a lane, Kash.

And then we get the Kash Patel swag bombshell, published a few hours ago by the same reporter: beanies, hoodies, “government gangsters” playing cards, personalized bourbon bottles engraved with “ka$h patel fbi director.” Because apparently nothing says sober, serious federal law enforcement like turning the FBI into a liquor table at CPAC.

Meanwhile, Trump’s ballroom has gone from $200 million to $400 million to now $1 billion — and the Republicans now want US TO PAY FOR IT. This is the same guy who said taxpayers would pay nothing, not a dime, zero. And remember, Trump had the FBI investigate the Fed chair over construction overruns. But when Trump’s vanity ballroom goes five times (and probably more) over the original number, suddenly we’re supposed to call it national security.

And that’s the theme of the whole night: Trump says one thing, does the opposite, then expects everyone to pretend reality didn’t happen the day before. He says Iran respects us while they’re firing on US ships. He says the economy is great while credit-card spending is through the roof because prices are through the roof. He says the ballroom costs taxpayers nothing while Congress prepares to put up a cool billion for it. His administration rebrands ICE as “NICE” because apparently Orwell was too subtle. Melania talks about Trump’s empathy and starts laughing. And the Pope, of all people, basically tells Trump to stop lying.

In Donald Trump’s Washington, it’s just another Wednesday.

US Secretary of State, and many other things, Marco Rubio now says the combat operations launched back in February are finished. Great. Somebody should tell Iran. Since this so-called ceasefire began, Iran has kept attacking commercial vessels, kept seizing ships, kept attacking US forces, and kept pushing around its neighbors in the Gulf. But Trump wants to declare the war over because Trump wants out. He wants the headline. He wants the victory lap. He wants the Nobel Prize fantasy version of foreign policy where the details don’t matter and everyone just claps for Dear Leader.

But Iran can see what’s happening. They can see Trump is desperate. Last week, Trump said he didn’t care how long the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed. Then, a few days later, suddenly he’s panicking and begging for help reopening it. So if you’re Iran, why would you settle now? Why wouldn’t you just drag this out until Trump gives you the best deal possible? Trump’s entire negotiating style is that any deal is a good deal if it lets him claim victory, and move on.

And the nuclear justification is now collapsing too. Trump is now claiming Iran was two weeks away from a nuclear weapon when he bombed them last year. Really? Because that’s the kind of thing you’d think he might have mentioned before. Maybe in the big Iran speech. Maybe in the endless interviews. Maybe every ten seconds if it were actually true.

Instead, US intelligence said Iran was three-to-six-months away from building a nuke (if they wanted to) before last year’s strikes. After those strikes, Iran was 6-to-12-months away from building a nuke (again, if they so choose). Then, Trump bombed them for the past two months, and what happened? Iran is still 6-to-12-months away from building a nuke. Literally nothing changed. In other words, we blew things up, risked and lost US troops, raised energy prices, raised inflation risks, and spent tens of billions of dollars (at least) -- and apparently didn’t set back Iran’s nuclear program by even a day.

And no, that doesn’t mean Iran should ever be allowed to get a nuclear weapon. Absolutely not. Iran is a terrorist state. It cannot be allowed to have nukes. But that’s the point: If you’re going to start a war over a nuclear program, the war should actually do something about the nuclear program. Otherwise, what are we doing?

Meanwhile, the corruption parade at home continues. Senate Republicans now want to give Trump $1 billion for “security” around his ballroom. Remember, this was supposed to be privately funded. Initially we were told it would cost $200 million. Then $400 million. Now it’s a billion dollars of taxpayer money — but don’t worry, they say it’s only for security. Except Trump and Republicans already told us the ballroom itself is a security measure. So Trump will probably use the entire billion on doilies and those gold appliqués from Home Depot.

In other news, Trump also attacked the Pope again, Mark Zandi is warning that Trump’s tariffs have already damaged the economy, RFK Jr.’s FDA is reportedly blocking vaccine safety studies, Russia is threatening Kyiv because Putin wants a nice clean Victory Day parade, and Democrats appear more motivated to vote in November than Republicans (yeah!).

And then, late in the show, Trump announced that “Project Freedom,” the effort to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, is being paused while the blockade stays in place. Which he is somehow presenting as progress. We were escorting some ships. Now we’re escorting none. And Trump wants you to believe that’s a breakthrough.

He’ll lie about anything. And frequently does.

Last week, he was telling us the Strait of Hormuz was closed because he closed it. Not Iran. Him. Iran was supposedly begging him to reopen it, and he said no, because he could keep it shut for weeks or months until Iran was desperate. Very tough. Very strong. Very alpha, as long as you don’t wait four days.

Today, Trump suddenly decided he needed to reopen the strait immediately. First, he told the press that the US Navy would force its way through with military escorts and reopen the shipping lane by force. Then, as usual, Trump flip-flopped again. The actual plan turned into two US-flagged commercial ships following some Navy ships checking for mines. Two ships. In a waterway that normally sees something like 150 ships a day. Congratulations. We’ve invented the world’s most expensive maritime participation trophy.

Then Iran started firing. Missiles and drones at US forces and merchant vessels. Missiles at the UAE. Iran even claimed it hit a US Navy ship, while the US denied it. In normal times, I’d believe the US military. Under Donald Trump, who lies the way other people breathe, who knows. And that’s one of the most dangerous things he’s done to this country: He’s made it harder to trust the US government, even when the government may be telling the truth.

In spite of all this, Trump says the ceasefire isn’t broken. Which is fascinating, because generally when the other side is firing missiles at you, we call that “not a ceasefire.” Silly me.

The economic piece is just as bad. Oil jumped again. Gas is now around $4.47 nationally. Diesel is hitting all-time highs in Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan. And this is the same man who promised gas under $2 a gallon, and said he’d cut energy prices in half within 12 months. We’re now 15 months in, and prices went the other direction. Not only did he fail. He failed big time.

As for Trump officials claiming the past few days that “it was worse under Biden” not really. National gas prices were over $4 during Biden’s term only from March to August 2022. That’s it. Trump is already back over $4. He owns this. He promised to cut energy prices, and he’s raised them. He promised to cut inflation, and he raised it.

Then there’s Ukraine, where the picture is increasingly brutal for Russia. Russia captured only 68 square miles last month, while losing thousands of vehicles and tens of thousands of troops killed and wounded. At that rate, as Frank Luntz noted (citing Forbes), Russia would take the rest of Ukraine sometime around the year 2256, at the cost of roughly 101 million casualties. So yes, Russia is still dangerous. But this is not the triumphant war machine Putin wants everyone to imagine.

And that’s exactly why Europe is worried. Not necessarily that Putin is about to roll tanks into Poland. More likely, he tries something ambiguous. A drone operation. A Baltic Sea incident. Something in the Arctic. A shadow-fleet provocation. Something designed to scare Europe, split NATO, and make everyone argue about whether Article 5 applies.

And Trump is making that more likely. He’s pulling 5,000 US troops out of Germany, including frontline troops we routinely deploy to Eastern Europe. These are exactly the kinds of forces that would matter if Putin tested NATO. So once again, Trump is doing something that helps Vladimir Putin. He can yell “Russia, Russia, Russia” all he wants. But for whatever reason, Trump is always on Putin’s side.

Then, because apparently we don’t have enough wars, Trump also said the US will be taking over Cuba “almost immediately.” Remember when he ran on ending foreign wars? Now he wants to raise defense spending from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion — so he can fight even more wars — while threatening Cuba, Greenland, Panama, Venezuela, Gaza, and who knows who’s next.

Domestically, the authoritarian freak show continues. As you know, former FBI Director Comey posted a picture of seashells on a beach arranged to say “86 47.” The phrase means “get rid of Trump, dump Trump, toss Trump, take him off the menu.” It does not mean “I am personally planning an assassination,” which is what Trump’s Justice Department is now trying to claim.

Trump’s acting AG, Todd Blanche, made the problem worse (for Trump). He was asked whether all the people selling 86 47 merchandise online should also worry about prosecution. He said of course not. Because the phrase is used constantly. Exactly. That’s the point. If the phrase itself isn’t enough to prosecute everyone else, then it isn’t enough to prosecute Comey. Unless the real rule is: it’s legal when random people say it, but illegal when Trump wants revenge.

Blanche also claimed that the indictment is based on something else entirely — some mysterious “other” evidence to prove that James Comey is really Squeaky Fromme. Except the indictment itself is about the seashells. That’s it. That’s the case. It’s not that long an indictment, and the entire thing is about seashells. If they had all this alleged other evidence, why isn’t it in the indictment? Why didn’t they present it? Why is the entire charging document about the seashell post? It’s not law enforcement. Because they’re likely lying again.

Next topic, election theft. Blanche gave us another classic: He said we should require voter ID because you have to show ID every time you walk into a restaurant. What restaurants is this man going to? Unless he’s talking about strip clubs, most adults do not show ID to enter a restaurant. You show ID if you’re young and ordering alcohol. That’s not the same thing as voting.

Meanwhile, Trump’s numbers are cratering. Harry Enten says Trump’s net approval is now the worst ever for him. His support among GOP-leaning independents has collapsed from 91 percent in 2024 to 53 percent job approval now. His $1.5 trillion defense spending plan is opposed by nearly two-thirds of Americans. And more Americans, a solid majority, now say he isn’t physically healthy enough to serve.

Which brings us to Trump bragging again about cognitive tests. He keeps saying he’s taken three of them, and aced them. He doesn’t seem to understand what he’s admitting. Doctors don’t usually give you three cognitive tests for fun. They give them because they’re worried about dementia, Alzheimer’s, cognitive decline — and you don’t get three unless things are getting worse. Also, when Trump says the tests are hard, that’s not the flex he thinks it is. They’re not supposed to be hard, UNLESS YOU HAVE DEMENTIA.

So tonight’s show was Iran, oil, Ukraine, NATO, Cuba, Comey, voter suppression, Trump’s collapsing polls, Hegseth lying about troops at polling places, and Trump bragging about dementia tests. In other words, our foreign policy is dangerous, the economy is getting uglier, the authoritarianism is getting louder, and the people in charge are still somehow dumber than the crisis they created.

The Strait of Hormuz is still the center of this mess, and Trump is now pitching some new coalition to reopen it, after spending days pretending he didn’t need anyone else, and in fact, he WANTED it closed! He even claimed that King Charles privately told him he would’ve been willing to join the war against Iran, which is one of those Trump stories that sounds less like diplomacy and more like a guy at a bar explaining how all the important people secretly agree with him. (Buckingham Palace was forced to publicly deny the story.)

Meanwhile, gas is already at $4.40. Oil is still sitting at crisis levels. And Republicans are doing what Republicans always do when reality becomes inconvenient: lie. Tim Scott said gas prices are coming down. They’re not. Steve Scalise claimed gas is way down from two years ago. It’s not. Pete Hegseth suggested California gas was $8 when the war started. It wasn’t. This is the problem with propaganda. It doesn’t make the price at the pump go down. And people aren’t stupid. They go to the store and they know what things cost. And lately, that’s far too much.

And even if the Strait reopens, some day, prices don’t magically fix themselves the next day. GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan is saying prices may not return to pre-war levels for well over a year after the Strait reopens. So the idea that this is just a temporary inconvenience, that Trump can wave his hand and prices will collapse, is fantasy. This is the cost of war. It’s the cost of instability. It’s the cost of putting a guy in charge who treats global security like a reality show cliffhanger.

Then there’s Trump’s war on the press, which is getting more dangerous by the day. Just days after a gunman entered a dinner hosting thousands of journalists, Trump called CNN “the enemy,” and said the New York Times was “actually seditious.” Sedition is not just “I disagree with this newspaper.” Sedition means trying to violently overthrow the government. So when Trump tells his supporters that journalists are enemies of the country, and literally trying to violently overthrow him, that’s not harmless bluster. That’s the kind of language that can inspire someone unstable to act, violently.

And the hypocrisy is off the charts. Trump and Melania just spent days whining because a comedian told a joke they thought was mean. But Trump can accuse journalists of being enemies of the state, and suddenly everyone is supposed to pretend this is normal. It’s not normal. It’s authoritarian. And it’s dangerous.

The rest of the show is the full Trump collapse in miniature: the Justice Department going after James Comey over “86 47,” revived probes that look a whole lot like political retribution, the Epstein suicide note that was apparently sealed for years, Trump attacking Hakeem Jeffries for criticizing the Supreme Court after Trump himself trashed the Court last week, and Trump’s sons taking a stake in a Kazakh mining company that won a $1.6 billion US government contract. Just normal family business. Nothing to see here, Hunter.

And because no Trump news cycle is complete without some cognitive weirdness, Trump is now bragging that he took cognitive tests three whole times! And never once asked WHY his doctor thought he needed three tests for dementia. Add in Russia claiming Trump and Putin blamed Zelensky for the lack of a peace deal, Ukraine aid only moving after Mitch McConnell had to shame the administration, and Trump apparently gluing his own challenge coins to White House doors, and you’ve got the whole picture. War, corruption, gas prices, authoritarian rhetoric, and a president decorating the White House like it’s a tacky casino gift shop.

That’s tonight’s show, check out the video for more. Otherwise, I’ll check in tomorrow.

Thanks, JOHN

Not the “mission accomplished” phase. Not the “we bombed them and they folded” phase. Not even the “we have a diplomatic off-ramp” phase. No. We’re now in the “let’s keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for months, keep US forces parked in the region, watch oil and gasoline prices explode, and hope Iran blinks before we do something even stupider” phase.

That’s not a strategy. That’s Vietnam with oil futures.

The reporting today is pretty straightforward. Trump reportedly doesn’t want to resume bombing Iran, but he also doesn’t want to back down. So now the plan is an extended blockade. The Strait of Hormuz stays closed. The blockade remains. US forces remain in the region. Iran doesn’t capitulate. Trump doesn’t retreat. And both sides sit there waiting for the other guy to blink -- or fire first.

And the problem is, that’s how wars spread.

This is the thing Trump never understands. Or maybe he understands it and just doesn’t care. You can’t shut down one of the most important oil chokepoints in the world and then act shocked when oil prices spike. Gasoline is already climbing. Oil is already surging. And that feeds directly into inflation, which feeds into bond yields, which feeds into mortgage rates, business borrowing, the cost of servicing the national debt, and eventually recession risk.

So when Trump says he’s being tough, what he’s really saying is: You’re going to pay more at the pump, your mortgage is going to get more expensive, businesses are going to get squeezed, and the Fed may have to keep rates higher because Trump needed to prove he was a big strong man.

And politically, the numbers are brutal. Americans think the economy is on the wrong track. Independents say the economy was better under Biden. Trump’s inflation numbers are historically awful. That’s the part he can’t spin away. You can lie about a war. You can lie about a deal. You can lie about Iran being “in collapse.” But people know what they’re paying for gas. They know what groceries cost. They know what their rent and mortgage cost. Reality has a way of punching through the propaganda.

And then there’s the Comey indictment, which is almost too stupid to be real. James Comey gets indicted over seashells arranged to say “86 47,” while Trump’s own allies have used the exact same “86” language about Biden and members of Congress. Trump himself has posted violent imagery about Biden. But somehow Comey’s beach photo is the national emergency.

This is what authoritarian governments do. It’s Soviet, communist Chinese, and Putinesque. They don’t apply the law equally. They define the law as whatever protects Dear Leader and punishes his enemies. If Trump’s enemies say something ambiguous, it’s a federal case. If Trump’s allies say something worse, suddenly everyone becomes a free speech absolutist. (Remember when JD Vance scolded the UK, and Europe overall, for being soft on free speech?)

The rest of the show is the same theme in different forms: corruption, hypocrisy, decay, and consequences. Israel wants Ukraine’s help against Hezbollah drones while still playing footsie with Putin and refusing to help Ukraine. The Supreme Court just made it easier to dismantle minority voting power. The White House calls Trump a king days after Trump says calling him a king puts his life in danger. And Trump manages to embarrass himself in front of actual royalty, because apparently even the British monarchy isn’t safe from his desperate need to be the center of attention.

The through-line is simple: Trump creates chaos, lies about the chaos, blames everyone else for the chaos, and then asks why everything is on fire.

This weekend’s shooting at the Washington Hilton is one of those stories where the instant hot take -- “security failed” -- may not actually be right.

This was the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, the annual Washington media prom — we call it Nerd Prom — where the press, politicians, and celebrities all gather at the Washington Hilton. The Hilton — o…

On tonight’s show, I’ll discuss the ugly reality that Trump clearly isn’t planning to end this war anytime soon -- and he’s not even being honest about what’s happening. Today he bizarrely claimed the war has only been going on for six weeks, when it’s been eight, then snapped at reporters and started rambling about Vietnam lasting longer, as if that somehow makes this debacle better. At the same time, oil and gas prices are climbing again, jet fuel is getting squeezed, and even airline executives are warning that the economic fallout is likely to get worse in the weeks ahead. I’ll also get into the broader cost of this war -- not just in money, but in strategic damage. Reports say the US has burned through so many munitions in Iran that officials are now worried we may not be fully prepared for a Taiwan contingency in the near term, with years needed to rebuild stockpiles. That’s the part nobody in this administration wants to talk about. They want to posture and bluster, but wars don’t happen in a vacuum, and when you drain military resources into one open-ended conflict, you weaken yourself somewhere else. And then there’s the corruption, the incompetence, and the authoritarian creep wrapped around all of it. Trump’s approval is collapsing, his administration is reportedly ramping up efforts to strip citizenship from naturalized Americans, Fox is cheering on yet another Trump family cash-in tied to government power, and the broader MAGA project just keeps turning into the very swamp it claimed to oppose. So tonight I’m going to pull all of that together -- the war, the rising costs, the hypocrisy, and the bigger question of how much more damage Trump is willing to do because he apparently has no exit plan at all.0:00 Opening — Iran war reality check2:10 Trump claims war is “only 6 weeks” + Vietnam rant6:45 Strait of Hormuz control claims vs reality10:30 Oil spike — Brent, WTI, and gas prices rising again14:20 Jet fuel crunch + airline warning for summer travel18:05 Khamenei health report — what it actually means22:40 US munitions depletion — Taiwan risk27:15 Pentagon planning gaps + timeline to rebuild stockpiles31:50 Strategic consequences — fighting one war, losing leverage elsewhere36:10 Trump approval collapses (new polling)39:20 Denaturalization push — what they’re actually doing43:30 Eric Trump + Pentagon contract controversy47:00 MAGA hypocrisy — “Animal Farm” moment51:10 Spirit Airlines bailout — government ownership angle54:30 RFK Jr math nonsense + Trump reaction58:00 World Cup stunt — Trump, Italy, and Meloni1:01:20 Carter Page settlement1:04:00 Meta layoffs + AI spending1:06:40 Ukraine infiltration story1:09:10 Prince Harry in Ukraine1:11:00 Trump MLK rant1:13:00 Navy sailor incident + wrap-up1:14:30 CBS report — Iran military not as destroyed as claimed1:15:30 Final thoughts

On tonight’s show, I’m going to get into the latest on Iran and this very shaky ceasefire that Trump is now trying to hold together. The reporting makes pretty clear that he’s giving Iran just a few more days to come up with a real counteroffer, because it looks like he thinks the US has gotten about all it can get militarily and he wants out before this war gets even more politically toxic. But the Strait of Hormuz is still the huge issue here. You’ve got ship seizures, competing claims about who’s controlling what, and warnings that it could take months to fully clear the waterway. And that matters because this isn’t just a military story. It’s an oil story, a shipping story, and an inflation story.I’m also going to talk about the economic fallout, because that’s where this starts getting very real for people very fast. Fuel prices go up, then everything else starts moving. Airlines are already cutting flights. Fertilizer prices are rising. Food prices are likely next. And once higher fertilizer costs start hitting corn and feed, that means higher prices for beef, chicken, eggs, dairy -- all of it. That’s how these wars work. People act like it’s some faraway foreign policy fight until it shows up in their grocery bill and at the gas pump.And then I’m going to get into the wider political mess here at home, because the rest of the news is completely nuts too. You’ve got the Virginia redistricting fight and what that could mean for the House, fraud charges against the Southern Poverty Law Center, a giant new Pentagon drone budget while Don Jr. and Eric just happen to be in the drone business, more Epstein files drama, Kash Patel’s latest legal mess, RFK Jr. warning that the US is losing scientists and research to China, and new polling showing Trump’s numbers are now worse than after January 6. So the larger point here is that the chaos is not contained. It’s overseas, it’s here, and it’s all starting to bleed together.0:00 Intro and opening thoughts2:32 CBS undercuts Trump’s claim that Iran’s military was destroyed2:44 Strait of Hormuz chaos and why it still matters3:28 Trump gives Iran a short ceasefire window to make a deal4:43 Trump’s poll numbers are now worse than after January 65:54 What was the point of this war and what counts as “winning”17:48 Fuel prices, fertilizer, and why food inflation may be next20:40 Trump floats financial help for the UAE amid war fallout22:30 Virginia redistricting and what it could mean for the House30:54 Southern Poverty Law Center indictment32:18 Trump’s massive drone budget and the Trump family business angle32:44 MTG says Trump blocked release of the Epstein files33:47 Kash Patel loses his defamation case against Frank Figliuzzi34:17 Report that CDC won’t publish covid-shot hospitalization findings35:57 Kash Patel and the New York Times reporter investigation38:23 RFK Jr. says the US is losing science and research ground to China40:33 The “Trump is losing his mind” argument and what it says about the moment43:17 US begins using Ukraine’s Sky Map system in Saudi Arabia43:30 EU approves major Ukraine loan and sanctions move after Hungary lifts veto45:25 Georgia women’s tennis White House photo48:45 Late-show CBS report -- much of Iran’s military was not destroyed55:14 Military leadership chaos during wartime57:03 Viewer Q&A and additional discussion1:13:29 Sign-off

On tonight’s show, I’ll discuss the widening gap between what Donald Trump is claiming about Iran and what Iran is actually saying. Trump is out there insisting that Tehran agreed to everything -- that the Strait of Hormuz is open, that Iran won’t use it as a weapon, that the US will take Iran’s nuclear material, and that Iran will suspend its nuclear program indefinitely. But the facts on the ground, and Iran’s own public statements, tell a very different story. The strait still appears tightly controlled, ships are still being turned back, Iran is still asserting control over shipping traffic, and the core issues Trump claims to have solved don’t actually appear solved at all. I’ll also look at the deeper hypocrisy here, including Trump now considering a massive cash-for-uranium style arrangement after years of attacking Obama and Hillary Clinton for doing far less. Then I'll get into the broader fallout from this crisis -- military, economic, and political. That includes the continuing US blockade, Iran’s threat to shut the strait entirely if the blockade remains, the return of the USS Gerald R. Ford to the region, and what all of this means for oil markets and the global economy. I’ll talk about the stunning contradictions inside Trump’s own messaging, from gas prices to the economy, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent effectively saying Americans feel good even if they say they don’t. And I’ll cover fresh reporting that Spirit Airlines is now seeking emergency federal help because of soaring fuel costs, which gives you a pretty direct sense of how quickly these Middle East decisions are already hitting the real economy. And then I’ll turn to the political and cultural chaos surrounding Trump himself. That includes backlash from religious conservatives after Trump’s attacks on the Pope, Sean Hannity saying he’s leaving the Catholic Church, and Tucker Carlson openly raising the question of whether Trump fits biblical warnings about the antichrist. I’ll also cover the new House Judiciary Democrats probe into Jared Kushner’s role in Middle East negotiations while he reportedly continues private business dealings in the Gulf, Caitlyn Jenner’s appeal to Trump after her passport gender marker was changed, Trump’s bizarre comments about “corner stores,” his giant self-glorifying arch, and a few other stories that capture just how unhinged and surreal this political moment has become.0:00 Trump claims Iran agreed to everything4:25 Iran says no -- Hormuz still restricted, with tolls and Iranian control6:51 Ships turn back, checkpoints remain, and Trump’s “open strait” claim falls apart10:00 Iran rejects sending enriched uranium abroad10:06 Iran rejects Trump’s claim of an indefinite nuclear freeze11:50 US blockade stays in place, and Iran threatens to shut Hormuz again13:00 Trump’s reported $20 billion cash-for-uranium hypocrisy15:00 Trump attacks the Pope, but his own argument backfires18:13 USS Gerald R. Ford heads back to the region19:08 Traders place a massive bet on falling oil20:58 Sean Hannity says he’s leaving the Catholic Church23:27 Tucker Carlson floats whether Trump is the antichrist27:17 Bessent claims people secretly feel good about the economy28:23 Trump denies gas prices are above $430:15 Spirit Airlines seeks emergency help over fuel costs30:44 House Democrats probe Jared Kushner’s Middle East role31:08 Caitlyn Jenner appeals to Trump over passport gender marker33:09 Trump’s lawsuit against his own IRS gets even weirder35:28 Trump gets confused by the phrase “corner store”41:04 Trump says his giant arch will commemorate himself41:50 UFO-linked scientist death mystery and other unexplained cases

On tonight’s show, I’ll get into a bizarre and ugly convergence of war, politics, and religion. I’ll talk about Trump claiming Iran has agreed to hand back what he called the “nuclear dust” buried underground, while his administration keeps escalating the rhetoric around the war. And I’ll cover the increasingly surreal effort by Trumpworld to cast Trump as a kind of messianic figure -- from Trump’s own Jesus imagery to Pete Hegseth delivering an actual press conference sermon comparing Trump to Christ and the media to the Pharisees. I’ll also dig into Trump’s escalating attacks on Pope Leo, and the broader hypocrisy of all of this. Trump has been attacking the pope for criticizing the war and even framed it as part of his own political mandate, while Speaker Mike Johnson absurdly suggested the pope doesn’t understand just war doctrine. Meanwhile, Pope Leo responded in moral and sweeping terms, condemning those who manipulate religion and the name of God for military, political, and economic ends. (Yeah, wonder who that is?) I’ll also get into the bomb threat against the home of the pope’s brother, and why the climate Trump is helping create matters. Then I’ll widen out to the broader international fallout. I’ll cover the report that Europe has only about six weeks of jet fuel left, the data showing that most ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz since April 13 were affiliated with Iran, and the report that Iran used a Chinese spy satellite to target US bases in the Middle East. I’ll also touch on Trump’s latest vanity-project spectacle -- a gigantic 250-foot arch planned for northern Virginia that even sympathetic architecture voices think is ridiculous. So it’s a show about war, propaganda, religious manipulation, global consequences, and the madness of Trump’s political moment.• 2:41 - Israel-Hezbollah truce and what it means for Lebanon• 3:17 - Trump says Iran will hand back the “nuclear dust”• 4:23 - Trump escalates his attacks on Pope Leo• 5:31 - Hegseth compares Trump to Jesus and the press to Pharisees• 12:19 - Pope Leo’s rebuke of war, tyranny, and weaponized religion• 19:17 - Trump administration cuts Catholic Charities contract for migrant children• 20:45 - Mike Johnson bizarrely lectures the pope on just war doctrine• 24:11 - Bomb threat at Pope Leo’s brother’s home• 28:36 - Europe’s jet fuel warning and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz• 28:59 - Report that Iran used a Chinese spy satellite to target US bases• 29:22 - Trump’s gigantic northern Virginia arch plan• 31:05 - Russia’s latest large-scale strike on Ukraine• 31:51 - Trump makes a surprisingly normal vaccine-related personnel pick• 34:05 - Viewer discussion on AI propaganda, viral Trump memes, and who’s really making them• 53:14 - Viewer Q&A: Pam Bondi, Congress, Epstein fallout, Iran bargaining, and 2028 chatter

On tonight’s show, I’ll discuss the growing confusion -- and possible deception -- around Trump’s war with Iran. Trump is suddenly talking as if the war is already over, even while the US is sending thousands more troops into the region and keeping up a blockade that could still trigger a much wider conflict. I’ll get into Iran’s latest warning about shutting down Persian Gulf transit if the blockade hits its ships, the reports that Tehran may be looking for a limited off-ramp in Hormuz, and the obvious contradiction at the center of all this: if the war is supposedly winding down, why does everything on the ground look like it could be escalating instead? I’ll also walk through Trump’s latest barrage of lies, contradictions, and reckless rhetoric -- from his new claim that Iran was somehow just two weeks away from a nuclear weapon, to his bizarre comments about China, cyberattacks, and the Strait of Hormuz, to the fact that he keeps inventing new justifications for the war after the fact. And it’s not just Iran. We’re seeing signs of broader military instability too, including reports about Pentagon planning around Cuba, fresh concern over North Korea’s nuclear capacity, and more evidence that Trump’s foreign policy is making the US look erratic, untrustworthy, and dangerous even to countries that used to rely on us. And then I’ll broaden it out to the larger political picture -- because this isn’t only about war. It’s also about a president who mocks Jesus, attacks the Pope, shrugs off Chinese cyberattacks, keeps lying about the economy, and treats American promises like they’re meaningless from one day to the next. I’ll get into the fallout abroad, including anger from Saudi Arabia, Italy, Hungary, and beyond, plus the economic consequences here at home -- from weak tax refunds to summer travel fears and World Cup tourism worries. The bigger point is that under Trump, everything is unstable. And the world is reacting accordingly.0:00 Tax Day opener and why the tax system is absurd7:03 Iran -- is the war actually over, or is Trump setting up a new escalation?13:39 Hormuz blockade claims start falling apart17:34 Trump’s new “Iran had a nuke in two weeks” excuse22:04 North Korea’s nuclear buildup22:20 Europe’s postwar mine-clearing plan -- and Trump’s Greenland rant26:47 Trump mocks Jesus again30:31 Trump claims Iran’s neighbors never saw attacks coming31:45 Trump shrugs off China cyberattacks36:36 Trump says Xi sent him a “beautiful letter” on Iran36:54 Saudi Arabia says the era of relying on the US is over37:01 Italy, Meloni, and backlash against Trump40:15 Trump says the UK deal “can always be changed”44:40 JD Vance tells the Pope to “stop lying”47:26 Peter Magyar takes on Orban’s propaganda machine54:30 Jan. 6 pardons and a child exploitation case54:50 Daniel Dale fact-checks Trump’s Fox interview56:05 Meloni on Ukraine as a moral and strategic fight56:14 Vance boasts about cutting off Ukraine57:01 Trump reveals he has no real economic agenda1:00:22 World Cup tourism hit by inflation, war, and anti-American sentiment1:03:52 Tax Day reality -- Trump promised $1,000, people got about $3501:04:09 Russia threatens Europe again, and nobody cares1:04:14 John Eastman gets disbarred1:05:16 Pentagon war planning for Cuba1:11:29 More questions about the Hormuz blockade and the ships that got through1:09:24 Hungary, CPAC, and foreign money into the MAGA world

That same pattern showed up in the Administration’s shifting story about Iran itself. The Pentagon says no Iranian-linked ships have been allowed in or out since the blockade began, yet maritime data shows multiple Iranian or Iranian-linked vessels departing the Strait of Hormuz. So which is it?

And then there’s Trump’s latest justification for the war: Suddenly Trump is claiming that Iran was two weeks away from a nuclear weapon. Sure, Jan. Mind you, Trump had already claimed months earlier that Iran’s nuclear program was “obliterated” and would never come back. So which fantasy are we supposed to believe? That it was destroyed beyond repair, or that it was racing toward a bomb month’s later? The reasons keep changing because six or so weeks into the war, Trump still doesn’t know why we’re there.

Trump also shrugged last night at reported Chinese cyberattacks with an “it is what it is” attitude, while also claiming Xi wrote him a beautiful letter promising not to arm Iran, and then turning around and sounding like he’s threatening China militarily anyway. Yeah, no dementia there. He veers from Iran to Greenland, from geopolitics to religious trolling, posting bizarre Jesus imagery while his own scandals hang over him. JD Vance lectures the Pope about theology, which is exactly as ridiculous as it sounds.

And Trump just warned that even a trade deal with the UK “can always be changed,” effectively admitting that no one should trust the word of this government. Trump’s mendaciousness isn’t just about one war, one lie, or one outburst. It’s about what happens when the United States becomes known as a country whose commitments are temporary, whose explanations are disposable, and whose leaders treats growing instability as a virtue.

A similar pattern is happening on the domestic side: Asked about the economy, Trump boasts about stock indexes, and brushes off rising oil prices, suggesting prices aren’t high at all! Then on tax day, today, Trump’s promised payoff to taxpayers turns out to be a fraction of what Trump promised us.

The lies, the confusion, the downward spiral continue.

On tonight’s show, I’ll walk through the latest escalation in the Iran war, starting with the US blockade of Iranian ports using roughly 10,000 troops, more than a dozen warships, and dozens of aircraft -- and the claim that no ships made it through, with several turned back. I’ll look at the strange contradiction in the US position: the Navy says it isn’t escorting vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, but Washington is still telling commercial shipping that the passage is safe. And I’ll get into Trump claiming new talks with Iran could restart in two days, even as Europe is reportedly discussing a postwar coalition to help reopen shipping lanes -- possibly without the US.I’ll also cover the growing economic fallout. CNN reports wholesale inflation in the US has climbed to 4%, the highest annual rate in three years, driven in part by rising energy costs. The head of the International Energy Agency is warning that oil prices still may not reflect how serious the threat is if the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted. And as Economist reporter Gregg Carlstrom points out, even if Iranian oil stops going to China entirely, China will just buy from somewhere else -- which means tighter global supply and higher prices for everyone else.Then I’ll turn to the political and cultural chaos swirling around the broader story -- from Orban, Serbia, Slovakia, and the Kremlin’s shifting posture, to JD Vance telling the Pope to stay in his lane on morality. I’ll also cover Trump’s new feud with Giorgia Meloni after she defended the Pope, the resignations of Eric Swalwell and Republican congressman Tony Gonzalez amid a new sexual assault allegation against Swalwell, Turkey putting LGBT activists on trial for the supposedly "obscene" behavior of kissing, a USDA Easter email that sounds more like government-sponsored evangelism, Ukraine reportedly capturing an enemy position using only robotic systems and drones, and one of the weirdest stories of the day -- the senior FEMA official who claims he was teleported to a Waffle House.7:45 - I cover the US blockade of Iranian ports and what it means for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz8:56 - I get into the Navy saying it isn’t escorting ships, while also telling vessels the strait is safe10:07 - I discuss Trump claiming Iran talks may restart in two days10:20 - I look at the reported European plan for a postwar coalition to reopen shipping11:43 - I cover rising oil prices, wholesale inflation, and why energy markets may still be underpricing the danger15:13 - I discuss Viktor Orban’s loss in Hungary and the broader regional implications17:13 - I get into the Orban-Serbia-Slovakia axis and the political ties behind it18:24 - I cover the Kremlin saying it and Orban were never really friends21:01 - I dig into the latest Trump-Pope fight and why Vance saying the Pope should stick to morality is absurd38:04 - I cover Meloni criticizing Trump’s attack on the Pope and the backlash in Italy39:49 - I discuss the resignations of Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzalez amid scandal42:00 - I cover Turkey putting LGBT activists on trial over same-sex affection in public43:19 - I discuss Brooke Rollins’ Easter email to USDA staff and the bigger church-state problem49:07 - I cover Zelenskyy’s announcement that Ukrainian robots and drones captured a position without infantry50:11 - I discuss Andrew Harnik’s award-winning photo of Trump while a man collapsed nearby in the Oval Office55:49 - I cover the bizarre story of Trump’s FEMA official who claims he can teleport to Waffle House59:20 - I wrap up the news and shift into audience Q&A and dog update

On tonight’s show, I start with the biggest story of the night -- Trump’s Iran policy is getting more reckless, more chaotic, and more expensive by the hour. The US-Iran talks fell apart, Trump threatened to blockade the entire Strait of Hormuz, then partially backed off after the obvious problem was pointed out: other countries use that route too. But the walk-back doesn’t fix the core issue. Blocking Iranian shipping still means choking off oil flows, spiking prices, and raising the risk of direct confrontation with China or anyone else whose ships get caught in the middle. And then Trump goes on Fox and basically admits gas prices may not even come down by the midterms.

I also get into the political fallout at home and abroad. JD Vance’s numbers are awful and getting worse. Viktor Orban lost in Hungary, which is a big deal not just for Hungary but for the global MAGA right that treat him as a role model. Then I pivot to Trump’s increasingly unhinged culture-war behavior -- attacking the Pope, posting an image of himself as Jesus on Orthodox Easter, and drawing criticism not just from liberals or the press, but from Catholic leaders and even conservative Catholics who normally bend over backward to excuse him.

Then I wrap the show with a flood of smaller but telling stories that all point in the same direction: the White House is flailing. Trump TACO’d again and signed a small business bill after saying he wouldn’t sign anything until Republicans got their voting crackdown bill. His people staged a McDonald’s delivery stunt and tried to use an $11,000 tip-income worker as propaganda, even though someone making that little likely wasn’t paying federal income tax anyway. I also cover the Stonewall Pride flag reversal, bad new polling, worsening consumer pessimism, weak home sales, and the absurd drama around the White House Correspondents’ Dinner and the Wall Street Journal. The throughline is simple -- the administration is trying to project strength, but what it’s really projecting is panic, contradiction, and a total inability to control the consequences of its own actions.

On tonight’s show, I’m covering the complete chaos around Trump’s supposed Iran ceasefire, because at this point it barely qualifies as a ceasefire at all. Iran is still attacking Arab neighbors including Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain, while Israel is still hitting Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Strait of Hormuz also still isn’t really open, despite Trump claiming otherwise. Iran says it won’t reopen it fully yet, may only allow limited passage even after that, and is now talking about controlling access, charging tolls, and forcing ships to register with the Iranian military. Meanwhile, there still appears to be no formal written ceasefire document at all.I’m also getting into the sheer absurdity of Trump’s shifting explanations for what deal even exists. First he claimed Iran sent demands and he agreed to most of them. Then the Iranians publicly floated a brutal ten-point list including reparations, sanctions relief, control of Hormuz, and a full US troop withdrawal from the Middle East. Then the White House said that plan was garbage and never accepted. Then Trump said there’s some other secret ceasefire that only he knows about. JD Vance claimed there were multiple Iranian plans causing confusion. At the same time, Trump is floating bizarre new ideas like a joint US-Iran tolling venture in Hormuz, claiming Iran may have agreed to recover buried uranium with the US, while also threatening giant tariffs on countries that arm Iran and separately hinting at sanctions relief. It’s incoherent, and none of it looks stable.And then beyond Iran, I’m covering a broader pattern of instability and extremism in Trumpworld. There were three big elections last night that showed major swings toward Democrats, even where Republicans still held on. Trump is also reportedly discussing possible steps away from NATO and moving US troops based on which allies he considers “good” or “bad.” On top of that, there’s a stunning report that Trump’s Pentagon threatened the Vatican in a closed-door confrontation, and another report that Trump wants to take money earmarked for the National Endowment for the Humanities and use it for a monument to himself near Arlington. So the larger theme tonight is not just war abroad, but a presidency that looks increasingly erratic, reckless, and completely untethered.0:02:37 - I open with why Trump’s Iran ceasefire is already falling apart0:04:09 - Iran attacks Arab neighbors and a key Saudi oil pipeline even after the ceasefire0:05:11 - Israel and Hezbollah keep fighting, and Lebanon becomes the first big ceasefire dispute0:06:44 - Iran’s alleged 10-point demand list and why it looks like Trump agreed to something awful0:07:46 - Trump melts down at CNN after Iran’s demands go public0:09:49 - Karoline Leavitt tries to walk it back and JD Vance adds a second, conflicting explanation0:11:26 - Trump claims there’s a different secret ceasefire nobody else knows about0:15:05 - Did Trump just hand Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz?0:16:39 - Iran’s reported plan to let only a dozen ships through and charge massive tolls0:18:52 - Whether Iran can legally close or control Hormuz under international law0:22:10 - The $2 million toll idea and Trump floating a joint US-Iran revenue scheme0:24:15 - Even Fox News undercuts Trump’s claim that Iran accepted his 15-point plan0:27:27 - Trump’s new claims about buried uranium and Iran giving up enrichment0:28:58 - Three big elections and why the swings toward Democrats matter0:32:36 - Trump’s latest NATO drama and what it means for Europe0:35:41 - The stunning report that Trump Pentagon officials threatened the Vatican0:38:49 - Trump’s plan to take NEH money and build a monument to himself near Arlington0:44:36 - Off-script: oil prices rebound and why markets may be waking up to how shaky this ceasefire really is.

There is still massive fighting going on. Iran just attacked four Arab neighbors. The Strait of Hormuz is closed for the foreseeable future. And even when it reopens, Iran says maybe it’ll let ten ships through over the next two weeks. Maybe not. Normally, 80 to 100 ships a day go through. Oh, and Iran now says it’ll charge a toll. Can you smell the victory?

As for the ceasefire, it’s a mess. Iran attacked Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain this morning. It also attacked a key Saudi oil pipeline running from the Gulf to the Red Sea, basically Saudi Arabia’s escape hatch around Iran. Israel continues to hit Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran says if Israel keeps hitting Hezbollah, then Iran won’t agree to the ceasefire. Israel says Lebanon was never part of the ceasefire because Hezbollah never agreed to it.

Meanwhile, Trump claimed last night that Iran sent back ten demands, and that he was basically fine with most of them, which is why the ceasefire supposedly went into effect. But he also said Iran had better open the Strait of Hormuz unconditionally. Then Iran released its demands publicly, and said, fine, here’s what Trump just agreed to. They included full US reparations, lifting all sanctions, Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, and a full US troop withdrawal from the Middle East.

Trump’s people then claimed the list was fake. Trump attacked CNN. Brendan Carr, that MAGA troll, threatened CNN too, even though he has no jurisdiction over CNN. But it wasn’t fake. CNN got it from the Iranians, and Iran published the demands. They’re real. They’re horrific. So did Trump agree to most of them? Who knows.

Then Trump put out his own fifteen demands, and claimed, no, no, no, I meant Iran agreed to my demands. Iran said no, it didn’t. Even Fox News walked through Trump’s demands on air and kept saying Iran hadn’t agreed to any of it.

What a mess.

And it gets worse. Iran says it’s not actually reopening the Strait of Hormuz at all, at least not yet. And even then, it’s not exactly an unconditional reopening when it happens, which Trump promised us. To wit: Iran now says it’ll charge a toll, two million dollars a ship or a dollar a barrel. And every ship has to register with the Iranian military, or it will be destroyed. And it may not reopen for another day or two. And when it does, maybe Iran will allow ten ships over two weeks. Usually it’s 80 to 100 a day.

This is a disaster. Before we invaded, the Strait of Hormuz was open to everybody. Nobody got charged. It was free transit through one of the world’s most important waterways.

So ,Trump gets asked about Iran’s outrageous claim that it now controls the strait and will charge tolls. And he says this morning, yeah, yeah, maybe the US and Iran will both charge a toll and split the money! So now the US is partnering with Iran to pirate a global shipping lane and split the profits. Our new BFF, the gay ayatollah.

Trump didn’t just TACO. He caved on everything. This is one of the biggest American military defeats in history.

On tonight’s show, I cover the latest chaos in Trump’s handling of the Iran war, starting with the rescue of a missing US servicemember and the extraordinary amount of sensitive detail Trump and his team are now publicly revealing about the mission. That’s not just loose talk. It potentially exposes methods, capabilities, and vulnerabilities while US pilots are still flying over Iran and similar rescue scenarios could happen again. I also get into Trump threatening the media outlet that reported the missing airman story, demanding the source and suggesting a reporter could be jailed. That’s authoritarian nonsense on its face, and it’s even more disturbing in the middle of an active war.

I also break down Trump’s increasingly unhinged public messaging on Iran. Over the weekend he was threatening to “liberate” the country on one timeline, then another, then posting a profanity-laced Easter message about power plants, bridges, and the Strait of Hormuz, before delivering Iran remarks from the White House while standing next to the Easter Bunny. At the same time, he openly says he’d like to seize Iran’s oil but can’t because Americans want the war to end. He also claims the US sent guns to Iranian protesters through the Kurds, then complains the Kurds kept them. And while Trump insists the war could be over in days, the supposed Iranian concession he’s hinting at sounds suspiciously like a recycled version of the Obama-era nuclear position he spent years attacking.

Beyond Iran, I also cover Trump’s latest attacks on NATO, which he now says he never needed because the alliance was merely being “tested,” along with his bizarre claim that NATO’s problems somehow “began with Greenland.” Then there’s the surreal moment where he tells little kids his autograph is worth $25,000 and segues into an autopen rant about Biden. I also hit several other major stories tonight: the Serbian false-flag allegation that appears to be unraveling, ICE detaining the newlywed wife of a US soldier training to deploy, and Zelenskyy’s highly significant visit to Damascus. And at the end of the show, we shift gears and track Artemis.

On today’s show, I’ll talk first about Trump’s speech last night, and why it seems to have made things worse, not better. Instead of calming markets or reassuring the public, Trump basically hinted that this war could go on for a long time, while offering little real clarity about the endgame. And the fallout was immediate: oil prices jumped, the stock market initially fell, and traders clearly took his comments as a sign that this conflict is getting deeper, more expensive, and more dangerous. I’ll also break down the economic shock that’s now starting to hit. West Texas crude surged, Brent jumped, and the real-world price for physical oil shipments reportedly shot above $140, the highest since 2008. Gas prices were already high, and there are now warnings they could rise sharply in the next two weeks, with diesel climbing even more. Trump’s war is about to become a direct hit on the American economy. Then I’ll get into the broader fallout inside Trumpworld and across the country: the administration changing its story again about why this war is being fought, reports that top officials were caught off guard by how hard Iran hit back, new signs that even Republican voters are getting uneasy, and the larger question of whether Trump and his team actually understood what they were unleashing. After that, I’ll move into the rest of the day’s chaos, but the heart of today’s show is Trump’s speech, the fallout from it, and the rising oil prices that may end up defining this moment politically and economically.Here is today's show:0:00 Intro and setting up the show2:13 Pam Bondi fired and the Epstein fallout4:07 Trump’s speech last night and the immediate market reaction4:45 Hegseth pushes out Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George7:41 Why “dated Brent” matters more than futures right now8:41 Why Trump’s speech spooked the oil market19:06 Trump claims the US won’t need oil through the Strait of Hormuz21:33 Iran’s Hormuz threat and the new toll plan23:17 GasBuddy warns gas and diesel could jump higher25:42 Trump says war costs mean cuts to child care, Medicaid, and Medicare33:18 Trump’s coming budget fight: more defense, less domestic spending34:30 Rubio shifts the war rationale yet again35:14 Susie Wiles worries Trump is getting a sugarcoated view of the war38:00 Report says top Trump officials were caught off guard by Iran’s response41:28 Ground beef prices hit a record high41:49 New CNN poll shows cracks among Republicans on the war42:36 Trump mocks Macron43:15 Trump says he doesn’t have to follow the Presidential Records Act44:10 Alex Jones says Kash Patel may be next44:28 Trump’s presidential library as hotel and Qatar plane monument47:54 FEMA official claims he can teleport48:30 Matt Gaetz and the alien-breeding story49:35 Paula White compares Trump to Jesus50:44 Viewer Q&A on religion, politics, and Trump1:07:23 Hagiography tangent and wrap-up

We start with how he built the channel, how The Great British Bake Off helped pull him into baking, and how that eventually turned into a career recreating recipes from centuries or even millennia ago. From there we get into his trips with fans to Jordan and Egypt, the history he experiences through travel, and why food ends up being one of the best ways to understand how people actually lived.

Then the conversation gets into the really fun part: the food itself. We talk about garum, the ancient fermented fish sauce that sat at the center of Roman cooking, along with some of the grosser things he’s made, including jellyfish and boiled leather. We get into historic pumpkin cheesecake, long pepper, why old recipes are maddeningly vague, and how so much of pre-modern cooking was written by and for people who already knew what they were doing. That leads into a broader discussion of forgotten dishes, early chili, Welsh rarebit, and the challenge of figuring out what people in places like ancient Babylon or even prehistoric Europe were actually eating.

The last part of the interview turns into a really interesting conversation about how taste changes over time. We talk about pastry “coffins” used for preservation, misconceptions people have about ancient food, the infamous Japanese ration balls that clearly did not impress him, and why some cultures treated recipes almost like state secrets. Then we get into something I always love: the way ingredients, technique, flour, sugar, pizza, chocolate, and even measuring cups all evolve over time. It ends up being a smart, funny conversation about history, but also about how much of what we think of as timeless food is actually the product of constant change.

This was a really fun interview. I hope you enjoy it as much as I did. JOHN

On this show, I lead with a judge finally slamming the brakes on Trump’s absurd White House ballroom project and reminding everyone that the White House does not belong to him. Then I turn to the Iran war, where the bigger story is that Trump now seems ready to declare victory and walk away even if the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively in Iran’s hands. That matters because he keeps pretending Hormuz does not affect the US economy, while gas prices jump again, diesel surges, and oil markets keep whipping around based on whatever comes out of his mouth that day.

From there, I get into the international and military fallout. Italy, Spain, and France are increasingly refusing to help, which tells you something about how isolated this operation is becoming. There’s also growing talk of a possible US ground move tied to buried Iranian uranium, and former General Mark Hertling warns that if Trump pushes Marines onto Kharg Island, they could be sitting ducks. I also cover Iran’s threats against major US companies, Karoline Leavitt’s stunning admission that top Iranian officials were killed because they lied in negotiations, and reports that the Pentagon is looking at anti-drone laser deployments in Washington.

Then I pivot to the domestic side of the chaos. New polling shows Trump’s standing with independents is historically awful. NBC reports ICE may station agents outside Marine graduations to identify undocumented relatives. The Army suspends the Kid Rock helicopter aircrew. Trump quietly removes Russians from sanctions lists. Rubio goes after birthright citizenship. A judge backs Trump’s demand for records from Penn, and the show closes with a run through some of the weirder stories surrounding Trumpworld, including the look of his presidential library and the bizarre Kristi Noem report. The through-line is the same everywhere: chaos, overreach, and a government acting like rules are optional.

On tonight’s show, I’m covering how the war in Iran keeps expanding while the stated US goals keep shifting. Trump is now openly threatening to blow up Iran’s desalination plants and other civilian infrastructure, even as reports suggest the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of possible ground operations and a much broader phase of the war. I’ll also get into the latest signals that Washington is still trying to negotiate, while at the same time changing the public rationale for the conflict yet again.I’m also looking at how the war is widening across the region and beyond. That includes the growing threat around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, the Houthis’ formal entry into the conflict, the risks to shipping and energy markets, and the rising economic fallout from oil and jet fuel spikes. I’ll also cover reports that Iran struck US planes in Saudi Arabia, that American service members were wounded, that Russia may have provided satellite help before the attack, and that cracks are now showing inside NATO and among US allies over support for the war.And I’ll finish with the domestic political fallout, which is getting worse for Trump. New polling shows his numbers sinking, including on inflation, jobs, tariffs, immigration, and the Iran war itself, while Republicans are reportedly still considering cutting health care spending to help cover the costs. I’ll also touch on the humanitarian toll, including reports that a new US missile killed civilians in Iran, and then wrap with several other major stories in the news tonight, from immigration and tariffs to a strange Army helicopter incident and Trump officials rushing to dig up old FBI files on political enemies.

Tonight’s show focused on reports that the Pentagon is considering a much bigger escalation against Iran, including a possible “final blow” involving ground troops, bombing, and strategic islands, and why that looks less like an endgame than a recipe for wider war. I also covered Trump’s contradictory claims about the war and negotiations, rising gas and oil prices, inflation risk, attacks on NATO, possible diversion of Ukraine weapons to the Middle East, sinking poll numbers, and a long list of other Trump scandals and side stories, from TSA funding and Venezuela trading questions to Michael Flynn, Ukraine, private deportation jets, and the gold bust at Mar-a-Lago.

Main show

* 0:06:18 Trump postpones his Iran bombing deadline again, this time to April 6, and I break down why the “open the Strait or we bomb power plants” line is so dangerous.

* 0:11:18 Trump’s tanker claim starts falling apart as Bloomberg reports there’s no evidence the ships he referenced even transited the Strait.

* 0:11:53 The stock market drops 1.7%, its biggest fall since the war began, while oil starts rising again.

* 0:12:20 Axios reports the Pentagon is weighing a “final blow” against Iran, including ground troops, bombing, and possibly Kharg Island.

* 0:19:17 Reports that Russia may be sending drones to Iran, and why trusting Moscow here is absurd.

* 0:19:53 Trump claims the war is “way ahead of schedule,” even though his own timeline doesn’t support it.

* 0:22:42 Republicans look at cutting health care spending, including Obamacare, to help pay for the war.

* 0:23:16 A Republican senator reportedly tells Semafor the operation is a predictable clusterf*ck and may require ground troops plus diplomacy.

* 0:24:01 Gas, oil, and inflation all move higher as the economic hit from the war grows.

* 0:26:00 Trump puts his signature on US currency while the country is at war and the economy is under pressure.

* 0:29:00 Trump attacks NATO again and lies that NATO never came to America’s aid.

* 0:32:00 The Pentagon reportedly considers diverting Europe-paid Ukraine aid to the Middle East.

* 0:33:00 New Fox poll shows Trump’s approval falling to 41%.

* 0:34:01 Gulf states may pull back promised investments as the regional economic fallout worsens.

* 0:35:17 In other news: Senate Republicans push emergency action to keep TSA funded.

* 0:35:35 Senate Democrats raise questions about possible Trump-related insider trading around Venezuelan bonds.

* 0:39:01 The Justice Department payout to Michael Flynn and what it says about Trump-era corruption.

* 0:43:00 Trump reportedly demands Ukraine give up eastern Ukraine in exchange for security guarantees.

* 0:45:00 Why Russia is losing badly, despite Trump pressuring Ukraine to concede territory.

* 0:47:00 Why America’s allies need to stop pretending Trump would really defend them.

* 0:49:15 New report says Trump is deporting migrants on private jets at enormous cost.

* 0:49:22 A gold bust of Trump appears at Mar-a-Lago.

Post-show / hang / Q&A

* 0:49:35 TikTok AI glitches and starts auto-generating “give them a shout out” prompts.

* 0:52:14 Greek embassy event, meeting people there, and spotting Alex Marquardt.

* 0:54:45 Back pain update and steroid injection.

* 0:55:07 “No Kings” rally and DC crowd concerns during cherry blossom season.

* 0:56:58 Trump’s “Ireland/island” confusion and Diego Garcia.

* 1:00:29 More on Trump’s vanity projects, including the currency signature issue.

* 1:03:54 TSA funding follow-up and what it says about Trump’s motives.

* 1:09:34 Brief embassy food talk.

* 1:10:13 Mention of the Iran AI baby video about Trump.

Trump’s Iran war keeps getting sold to the public like it’s some kind of clean, controlled operation that’s moving “ahead of schedule.” That’s bull. The latest reporting says the Pentagon is looking at a so-called final crushing blow against Iran that could include ground troops, a massive bombing campaign, blocking Iranian oil exports, or even taking Kharg Island and other strategic islands.

Okay, then what? If we go after Iran’s oil, they’ll go after everyone else’s oil. Saudi fields, Gulf infrastructure, shipping lanes, all of it. We already know how this works. And if the US tries to seize islands, what exactly is the plan after that? Are we permanently occupying them? Are our troops just sitting there as targets while Iran pounds them? And when we leave, what stops Tehran from going right back to choking the Strait of Hormuz? This is the same problem again and again with Trump’s wars: no serious endgame, just vibes, slogans, and the hope that brute force somehow solves the political problem it usually makes worse.

And while that’s happening, Trump can’t even keep his own story straight. He says the war is “way ahead of schedule,” but his own timeline doesn’t show that at all. He says the Iranians are begging for a deal, then in the same breath says they’re blowing our negotiators off, and need to be threatened into seriousness. Pick one. Either they’re desperate to negotiate or they’re not.

Meanwhile, the actual real-world consequences are piling up. Gas is now brushing up against four dollars a gallon nationally. Oil is surging. Inflation forecasts are rising. Iran is reportedly moving toward imposing new fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which is basically a war-created toll booth on one of the most important waterways on earth. But Trump, in his usual fashion, says he’s surprised prices didn’t go up even more, because apparently he thinks the market is showing confidence in him. No, what the market is showing is stress. And the people paying for it are ordinary consumers.

Then there’s the broader strategic mess. Trump is attacking NATO, again, absurdly claiming the alliance never came to America’s aid, when the one time Article 5 was invoked was after 9/11, on our behalf. And NATO came running to help us. He’s also diverting weapons that European countries bought for Ukraine, and redirecting them to the Middle East. That should tell you two things. First, he’s undercutting Ukraine, again. Second, this Iran operation is not going nearly as smoothly as he wants people to think, or they wouldn’t be scrambling for munitions. Even Republicans are describing the current situation as a predictable clusterf.

And politically, the numbers are catching up with him. Even Fox has his approval at 41 percent, with independents and Latinos turning sharply against him. So this isn’t just a military gamble. It’s an economic gamble, a strategic gamble, and increasingly a political one too. And the bill, as usual, is getting handed to everybody else.

On tonight’s show:

The Trump administration is reportedly already shrinking its Iran war aims, and that tells you everything. They started out talking about regime change and ending Iran’s nuclear program. Now the goal is apparently just reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which could’ve been avoided by not attacking Iran in the first place. Worse, Iran may now have more leverage over the Strait than before, and Trump is reportedly even floating some kind of joint control arrangement over waterways that aren’t supposed to belong to anyone.At the same time, the White House is looking for off-ramps while still pouring more troops and aircraft into the region, with Gulf allies reportedly pushing Trump to go bigger. But that likely means ground war. And Americans want the opposite: new polling says they want this conflict ended fast. Then there’s the corruption angle. Suspiciously timed oil trades and Iran bets are piling up around Trump’s announcements, while gas prices are rising again after a major Texas refinery explosion.And the rest of the news is no less absurd. Trump reportedly killed a TSA funding deal because he didn’t want a deal with Democrats, so enjoy the airport lines. The administration may host Lukashenko. Hungary is openly briefing Russia after EU meetings. Ukraine hit a major Russian oil hub, and Russia reportedly lost more than 6,000 troops in four days. And because hypocrisy is the only constant, Trump called mail-in voting cheating, then voted by mail himself. That’s where we are: smaller war aims, bigger risks, public opposition, insiders cashing in, and Trump still all over the place.

Remember what the administration originally claimed it wanted. Regime change. Permanent destruction of Iran’s nuclear program. Now the goal is reportedly just reopening the Strait of Hormuz. That’s where we were before the invasion. So after all this, after the chaos, the deaths, the market panic, and the spike in gas prices, the new objective is basically to get back to the status quo ante. Which means, yes, this could have been achieved by not attacking Iran in the first place.

And even that reduced goal may be slipping away. Former Trump officials are now openly saying Iran effectively controls the strait. If the US declared victory right now, Iran could turn around and act like it owns passage through one of the most important waterways on earth, reportedly even charging ships millions to pass through waters that are supposed to be international. That tells you how badly this has gone already.

What makes it even crazier is that Trump is now reportedly talking about some kind of joint control of the Strait of Hormuz with Iran. Think about how absurd that is. Before the war, nobody controlled it. It was an international waterway. Now, after launching a war, Trump may be preparing to reward Iran with partial control over a route that carries enormous shares of the world’s oil, natural gas, and other critical goods. That isn’t victory. That’s a huge concession. I thought we were winning. I thought a week ago nothing less than unconditional surrender would be accepted. So why are we now talking about giving half the Strait to Iran?

At the same time, there are growing reports of major US troop and equipment movements into the region, while Gulf states like Saudi Arabia are reportedly urging Trump to finish the job and overthrow the Iranian government. But “finish the job” is doing a lot of work there. It means something much bigger. It means a ground invasion, not just more airstrikes. So on one side the White House appears to be testing a diplomatic endgame, even reportedly considering Iran’s parliamentary speaker as some kind of future partner or leader. On the other side, it’s still building up militarily. Trump is, as usual, all over the place. And probably lying, or just confused. Thus forever the TACO.

The American public, meanwhile, seems a lot clearer than the White House. Polling shows the overwhelming priority for voters is ending the war as quickly as possible. Not open-ended escalation. End it.

Then there’s the part that really stinks, but really isn’t a surprise. The Financial Times reports that traders placed about half a billion dollars in oil bets just minutes before Trump’s announcement about “productive” talks with Iran sent crude prices tumbling. CNN found similarly suspicious betting patterns on Polymarket, including a near-perfect win rate on large Iran-related bets. At some point, when we get our government and our country back, we are going to need such a massive investigation of all of this corruption.

And the economic fallout is already here. Gas prices are still rising, oil is climbing again, and Americans are paying more because of this war. Add in a huge refinery explosion in Texas, which at minimum came at a deeply unnerving moment, and the whole picture gets uglier fast.

Then there’s the rest of the day’s news, which somehow is its own separate parade of corruption and hypocrisy. Republicans had a deal with Democrats to fund TSA, and Trump killed it because he didn’t want a deal with Democrats, ever. The administration is reportedly considering inviting Belarus dictator Alexander Lukashenko to meet Trump. Hungary’s foreign minister casually admits he updates Russia after EU meetings. Ukraine blew apart a major Russian oil export hub, and Russia reportedly took more than 6,000 casualties in just four days of a failed offensive. Ukraine also says it has irrefutable evidence Russia is still feeding intelligence to Iran to help target US troops, even thought Trump said Putin promised he they didn’t and wouldn’t. Yeah, well they did.

And because there is apparently no limit to the hypocrisy, Trump is publicly attacking mail voting this week while voting by mail himself this week.

That’s where things stand. The war aims are shrinking. The danger is growing. The insiders may be cashing in. And the administration still has no coherent plan beyond improvisation, contradiction, and spin.

Join me at 6pm ET for my regular nightly live show, covering Iran and the rest of the day’s new. Thanks for subscribing, JOHN

Tonight’s Iran war update focuses on Trump’s increasingly incoherent Iran strategy, as he appears to swing back and forth between suggesting the war may be ending and signaling support for a possible land operation centered on Kharg Island. I walk through the military and political signs pointing toward escalation, including more Marines in the region, “boots on the ground” rhetoric, British base access, and warnings about a longer war. I also connect the conflict to its economic fallout at home, from rising gas and oil prices to inflation, fertilizer, and food costs, while also hitting Trump’s contradictions on ammo, Ukraine, Russia, and his growing fixation on personal vanity projects.

Here are the topics covered:6:23 — More Marines are headed to the Middle East, raising fears that the US is moving closer to a ground war.9:38 — I explain the Strait of Hormuz on the map and why it matters for global oil and shipping.10:31 — Trump’s reported options: blockade Kharg Island or land Marines and take it.11:24 — Trump appears to flip-flop between preparing a ground invasion and suddenly claiming the war may be winding down.13:22 — Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will “open itself,” and I break down why that comment makes no sense.14:30 — Trump says he doesn’t want a ceasefire because you don’t do a ceasefire while “obliterating the other side.”15:00 — Trump reportedly says an amphibious landing on Kharg Island would be “simple” and relatively safe.15:25 — Axios reports the White House thinking: weaken Iran for a month, take Kharg Island, then use it as leverage in negotiations.18:56 — I explain why attacking Iran’s energy sector keeps leading Iran to retaliate against Gulf oil and gas infrastructure.20:52 — A Trump official starts laying the rhetorical groundwork for “boots on the ground,” despite Trump running against endless wars.22:22 — Britain agrees to let the US use British bases to strike Iranian targets tied to Hormuz.24:42 — Lindsey Graham wants to punish NATO countries that won’t help Trump’s Iran war.31:34 — Trump and Hegseth send mixed messages on ammunition shortages, while blaming Ukraine.33:02 — Gas prices hit $3.92, West Texas crude nears $98, and Brent climbs even higher.36:24 — I argue Trump is gaslighting the public about the economic damage, with oil up sharply since the invasion.39:24 — Markets are now pricing in higher inflation because of the war.41:35 — Goldman Sachs predicts $150 oil, while Saudi officials reportedly warn oil could hit $180 if Hormuz stays disrupted.44:54 — Iran threatens to target US and Israeli officials and military personnel in resorts and tourist centers.45:03 — Michele Tafoya tells Americans upset over gas prices to skip Starbucks and be patriots.45:28 — The US eases more Russia sanctions, Trump invites Lukashenko to Mar-a-Lago, and I connect oil, ammonia, fertilizer, and food prices.46:34 — Politico reports Moscow floated a quid pro quo: less Russian intel for Iran if the US cuts intel help to Ukraine.47:21 — Stephanie Ruhle says Trump trusts Putin more than Zelensky and more than America’s European allies.47:46 — I push back on Trump’s false claim that Ukraine has done nothing to help stop Iranian drones in the Middle East.50:00 — German Chancellor Merz says MAGA’s values are not Germany’s understanding of democracy.50:49 — Treasury reportedly moves ahead with Trump coins, despite legal questions.51:38 — Trump reportedly wants his face on Mount Rushmore, his birthday made a federal holiday, and a monument to himself in Washington.1:03:15 — I reflect on why so many Americans still support Trump and the broader pull of authoritarian politics.1:13:40 — In the closing discussion, I return to the possibility that Trump is still preparing some kind of land invasion.1:14:42 — Russian propaganda now includes children singing about not needing the internet after shutdowns.

Have a great finally-warmer weekend, everybody. JOHN

Trump keeps drifting toward a wider war with Iran, and the pattern is getting harder to ignore. Axios reports he’s considering either a blockade of, or even a land move against, Kharg Island, which handles most of Iran’s oil exports. That matters because we already know what happens when Trump or Israel hits Iran’s energy infrastructure. Iran retaliates by going after Gulf energy infrastructure, and US prices skyrocket. Trump approved an attack on Iran’s gas sector, Iran answered by hitting major facilities in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and now the world is staring at years of disruption, higher energy prices, and more instability. So the question isn’t whether Iran would respond. The question is why Trump keeps acting shocked when it does.

And the White House rhetoric is getting uglier. One source described the plan as weakening Iran for another month, taking the island, and then using that leverage in negotiations. Fine. But leverage cuts both ways. If Iran answers by blowing up more Saudi oil, more Qatari gas, or wider Gulf infrastructure, then suddenly America isn’t squeezing Iran. Iran is squeezing the global economy. That’s the part these people keep pretending not to understand. You don’t casually play games with the energy arteries of the Middle East and expect no military, and then economic, blowback.

Next up, boots on the ground…

Trump and his allies keep pretending this Iran war is controlled and strategic. It isn’t. Israel killed Iran’s intelligence minister and hit the South Pars gas field, shared with Qatar. That’s not a narrow strike. It’s a hit on Gulf energy infrastructure, and once you start playing with Gulf oil and gas, you’re gambling with the global economy.Iran’s threats against energy sites in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE show how serious this is. If Gulf energy production gets hit, this becomes a worldwide energy shock. Oil spikes. Gas spikes. Shipping, fertilizer, plastics, airfare, and store prices all rise. That’s how inflation comes roaring back in the US.The military escalation is worsening too, with US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and even foreign conservatives warning Trump has no clear endgame. Meanwhile Russia benefits, Kushner is raising money in the region, and Republicans are still obsessing over virtually nonexistent undocumented voting while the real crisis spreads.

Tonight’s show:00:00 Intro / housekeeping04:30 Israel kills Iran’s intelligence minister04:56 Israel strikes Iran’s South Pars natural gas facility05:28 Why hitting Gulf energy infrastructure is so dangerous06:00 Trump says maybe leave the Strait of Hormuz closed06:28 Why global oil prices still hit the US07:33 US gas prices surge as oil jumps08:12 Trump reportedly approved the Israeli strike on Iran’s energy sector08:55 Why Iran could retaliate by hitting Saudi, Qatari, Emirati, Kuwaiti, Omani, and Gulf energy sites10:00 The risk of a worldwide energy disaster10:49 Iraq loses major Iranian natural gas supply11:32 Why Qatar’s LNG exports are one of the biggest global vulnerabilities13:16 The war could end, but energy prices may stay high anyway14:02 Wall Street Journal reporting on Trump wavering over more strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure15:34 Why this war could trigger long-term inflation, not just an oil spike16:33 The political argument over opposing the war21:02 US bunker-buster strikes on Iranian missile sites near the Strait of Hormuz21:33 Trump’s “straight of Hormuz” comment22:13 How higher oil and gas prices would hit gasoline, fertilizer, plastics, flights, shipping, and consumer prices22:48 US global standing drops in international polling23:06 Germany’s far-right AfD leader criticizes Trump’s Iran strategy23:37 Russia expands intelligence-sharing and military cooperation with Iran24:39 Trump says he’s not afraid of Vietnam-style ground combat in Iran24:54 Jared Kushner conflict-of-interest questions while fundraising in the Middle East26:58 Belgium deploys troops to protect synagogues and Jewish schools27:32 The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates where they are28:03 Kim Jong-un wins 99.93% of the vote in North Korea28:35 CNN poll: 100% of MAGA supporters approve of Trump29:05 Cuban dictator Miguel Díaz-Canel threatens Trump and Marco Rubio29:45 Politico: Trump world wants to pull Russia away from China30:22 JD Vance heads to Hungary to help Viktor Orbán30:50 Federal judge says dismantling Voice of America was unlawful31:18 WSJ warns the SAVE Act could hurt Republicans politically32:05 Heritage voter fraud database shows only 10 undocumented voting cases in 40 years33:45 Q&A / open discussion begins38:39 Tulsi Gabbard, congressional testimony, and whether Iran posed an imminent threat41:08 Netanyahu death rumor debunked / nuclear war odds discussion42:10 Minesweepers, military readiness, and naval escalation questions45:08 Desalination plants as another possible target in a broader Gulf war47:37 Quick reaction to Illinois elections / Durbin seat chatter48:00 Theater review: As You Like It at the Folger / frustration with modernized Shakespeare50:27 Shakespeare authorship debate / Christopher Marlowe51:33 WHO preparing for a possible nuclear catastrophe in the Middle East53:09 Hamnet discussion55:48 Audience reactions to the movie Hamnet57:15 Rotten Tomatoes, movie reviews, and Roger Ebert58:23 Paul Mescal vs Pedro Pascal confusion59:55 Pedro Pascal background / Mandalorian discussion61:06 Italian language tangent / Q, C, and spelling63:05 Speaking Spanish in DC / translating for someone at the store63:55 Maltese language discussion67:12 US vs Europe time differences / daylight saving time confusion70:31 Working from home in Israel because of the war71:08 “Knock on wood” vs “touch wood” in English and French73:11 French grammar tangent on body parts and possessives75:30 Sign-off starts / tomorrow’s show time77:08 French Canadian / New Brunswick accent discussion79:00 Final goodbye

Iran’s response tells you exactly how serious this is. Tehran reportedly issued evacuation warnings tied to oil facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The White House reportedly approved Israel’s attack on Iran’s energy as a way to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Fine. But let’s think this through like adults. If Iran starts hitting Saudi, Qatari, Emirati, Kuwaiti, Omani, or broader Gulf energy infrastructure, this does not stay contained. This becomes a worldwide energy shock. The Wall Street Journal is already warning oil could head toward $110 a barrel after the South Pars strike. The real nightmare is not just a spike. It is a sustained disruption, especially if Qatar’s LNG exports get caught in the crossfire and energy production cannot return to prewar levels any time soon.

And yes, Americans will feel it. We already are. Average US gas prices are now reportedly around $3.58 a gallon, up 31 percent in the last month, and US crude has jumped sharply as well. If the Strait of Hormuz stays under threat, then this goes far beyond what you pay at the pump. Oil goes up. Natural gas goes up. Fertilizer goes up. Plastics go up. Airfare goes up. Shipping costs go up. Then the price of nearly every product in the store goes up. That is how inflation comes roaring back. So when Trump muses a few hours ago about maybe just leaving the “straight” of Hormuz closed, as though this is some clever bit of tough talk, what he is really talking about is detonating prices across the US economy.

The military side is escalating too. US Central Command says American forces used multiple 5,000-pound deep penetrator munitions on hardened Iranian missile sites near the Strait, targeting anti-ship cruise missiles that threatened international shipping. And now even some foreign conservatives are noticing. Germany’s far-right AfD leader Alice Weidel is warning that Trump appears to have entered this mission without a clear concept and without thinking through how it ends. When even Europe’s far-right is saying the war planning looks reckless, maybe that should set off a few alarms.

Meanwhile, Russia is reportedly expanding intelligence-sharing and military cooperation with Iran, including satellite imagery and drone support, because of course it is. A prolonged US-Iran conflict benefits Moscow both militarily and economically. It drains American attention, destabilizes Western allies, and pushes energy prices higher. At the same time, the New York Times reports that Jared Kushner is trying to raise billions from Middle Eastern governments for his private firm while also serving as a kind of freelance regional negotiator for Trump. That is not just sleazy. It raises obvious questions about whether policy and private money are getting mixed together yet again.

And while all of this is happening, Republicans are still obsessing over imaginary hordes of undocumented immigrants voting. The Wall Street Journal editorial board is warning that the SAVE Act could actually hurt Republicans by burdening exactly the kinds of voters in Trump’s coalition who may not have easy access to passports or birth certificates. And after more than 40 years and roughly 3 to 5 billion votes cast, Heritage’s own voter fraud database reportedly shows just 10 cases of undocumented immigrants voting. Ten. That is the scale of the “crisis.” So that is the broader picture right now: a reckless war strategy, rising global energy risk, mounting inflation danger at home, America’s standing abroad in decline, and a political movement still chasing fantasies while the real fire spreads.

Tonight’s show is about the Iran war getting messier by the hour, and Trump looking less like he has a plan than like he has a problem. Israel reportedly killed Ali Larijani, a major Iranian security figure who, not long ago, was on the short list of people the US supposedly thought could help lead Iran one day. At the same time, Trump is again begging Europe to join his war, even after spending the past year insulting Europe, threatening allies, freezing them out of decision-making, and even rejecting British help when it was offered. Now Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis says Europe will not enter the war. So after boasting that Iran was already beaten, Trump is suddenly desperate for backup.We’re also learning more about how shaky and dishonest this whole thing looks behind the scenes. Reuters says Trump was briefed before the US strikes that Iran could retaliate against America’s Gulf allies, even though Trump later claimed nobody warned him. NBC reports the Pentagon has already prepared options for Trump to end the war if he chooses, but so far he has not. Trump’s National Counterterrorism Center director has now resigned in protest, blaming Israel for pressuring the US into the conflict, while NOTUS reports that the State Department had already fired its oil and gas experts months before the bombing started. Meanwhile, Trump keeps making things up, from threatening “treason” charges over media reports that did not even come from American outlets, to claiming some former president secretly backed his Iran bombing, which his own team is now scrambling to explain.And the costs are starting to show. Oil is up again, gas prices in the US keep climbing, and one of Trump’s top economic advisers basically admitted that consumer pain is not the administration’s priority. That matters because this war could hit everything from shipping to medicine, especially since India supplies nearly half of America’s generic drugs and depends on the Strait of Hormuz for critical materials. Iran is already allowing safe passage only for countries it considers friendly, and Iranian-backed militias are getting bolder, with a drone reportedly flying unchallenged through the US Embassy compound in Baghdad. Add in Trump postponing his China trip, Mike Johnson offering yet another incoherent excuse for the war, and Zelensky revealing that hundreds of Ukrainian air defense specialists are now in the Middle East helping counter Iranian drones, and the picture is clear: this is spreading, it is getting more dangerous, and the White House still does not seem willing to level with the public about any of it.

Trump’s Iran war keeps getting more reckless, more incoherent, and more dangerous.

Israel says it killed Ali Larijani, one of the most senior Iranian officials still standing, even though Larijani had until recently been seen by some in Washington as a possible acceptable face for a post-regime Iran. Oops.

Trump is also again begging Europe to join his war, which is amazing given that he spent the past year insulting Europe, threatening allies, mocking their militaries, and refusing to treat them like actual partners. Now that the war is not going according to plan, suddenly he wants help. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis made clear today that Europe is not getting into this war. Trump bragged days ago that Iran was finished. Now he is looking around for somebody else to come clean up his mess. That is not “America First.” That is panic with a flag wrapped in the flag.

The lying is getting worse too. Reuters reports Trump was briefed before the US strikes that Iran could retaliate against Gulf allies, then Trump went out and claimed yesterday that nobody could possibly have foreseen that risk. Please. That has been one of the most obvious dangers in this region for decades. NBC, meanwhile, reports military planners have already built regular off-ramps into the war planning in case Trump decides he wants out. And Iran is now selectively allowing safe passage for ships from countries it considers friendly, which is its way of reminding the world that it still has leverage, and can raise or lower the temperature whenever it wants.

And yes, Americans are already paying for this war. Oil prices were up again this morning, US gasoline prices keep rising, and Trump’s own economic adviser Kevin Hassett actually said that a prolonged war would not disrupt the US economy much, aside from hurting consumers. Aside from hurting consumers! We are the consumers. That is the whole point. And it gets worse: nearly half of the generic prescriptions used in the US come from India, which relies on the Strait of Hormuz for critical imports and shipping. Since about 90% of prescriptions filled in the US are generics, this war does not just threaten your gas tank. It can hit your medicine cabinet too.

In other news… A militia drone reportedly flew a reconnaissance mission through the US Embassy compound in Baghdad for nearly two minutes, unchallenged. Trump has now postponed his China trip because he does not want to be away during the war. Joe Kent, Trump’s MAGA-aligned director of the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned in protest, blaming Israeli pressure for pushing the US into this war. And the administration is still threatening “treason” over media coverage it does not like while Trump spins bizarre stories about some former president secretly backing him. Bush says no. Clinton says no. Obama says no. So now Trump’s people are claiming it was Biden! Yeah, right — Trump called Biden for advice. Add in Mike Johnson’s latest word salad about “imminent threats,” and the pattern is obvious: this war was sold with spin, launched with ego, and is now being sustained with denial.

Here is tonight’s show, by time-stamp:

12:05 US Troops Wounded in Iran Conflict Now Exceed 20014:34 Trump Claims Nobody Expected Iran Retaliation24:34 Trump Threatens NATO if Allies Refuse to Join War26:19 Trump Pushes for Coalition to Reopen Strait of Hormuz30:12 Can Trump Legally Withdraw the US from NATO?34:15 Trump Threatens China Over Strait of Hormuz Crisis34:21 Trump Admits US Gets Little Oil From the Persian Gulf40:12 Trump Threatens Iran’s Kharg Island and Oil Exports43:30 Axios: Iran War Could Drag On Until September44:16 Could Iran Force the US to Stay in the War?48:18 Senior Trump Aides Reportedly Doubt the War Strategy48:56 Axios: Trump Was “High on His Own Supply”49:28 Israel Running Critically Low on Missile Interceptors50:25 Trump Adviser David Sacks Calls for Iran War Off-Ramp51:15 Zelensky Says Russia Gave Iran Drones Used Against US Targets53:03 White House Pressed on Sending 5,000 Marines and Sailors54:15 US Pushes Disinformation About Iran’s New Leader58:21 Gas Prices Jump After Trump’s Iran Escalation58:40 Trump Energy Secretary Says Higher Oil Prices Are Good1:01:47 JD Vance Reverses Himself on Foreign Intervention1:02:51 Trump Says Taking Cuba Would Be “An Honor”1:03:23 FCC Threatens Broadcasters Over War Coverage1:04:43 Trump Reportedly Removes Olive Branch From US Coin Design1:05:42 Trump Claims Zelensky Is Harder to Deal With Than Putin1:05:49 Ukraine Launches Massive Drone Attack on Moscow1:05:52 Netanyahu Seeks Talks With Zelensky on Drone Defense1:06:34 Trump Publicly Reveals Rep. Neil Dunn’s Grim Prognosis1:09:22 What Is Trump’s Actual Endgame in the Iran War?1:12:54 Post-Show Chat: Tomorrow’s Show, Max Miller, and TikTok Plans

Tonight’s show:

* 05:50 — 6 US servicemembers killed in Iraq refueling plane crash; Operation Epic Fury death toll rises

* 06:33 — Trump claims 1,700 Iranian sleeper cells are inside the US

* 11:12 — Michigan synagogue truck attack suspect reportedly lost family in a Lebanon airstrike

* 12:12 — JD Vance reportedly distancing himself from the war as 2028 politics kick in

* 14:53 — Pentagon sends more warships and a Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East

* 16:27 — Hegseth’s absurd claim that the Strait of Hormuz is “safe”

* 19:15 — Trump says the US doesn’t need Ukraine’s help on drone defense

* 20:16 — US sends 10,000 Ukraine-developed interceptor drones to the Middle East

* 22:51 — Vance tries blaming Biden for gas prices caused by Trump’s war

* 28:35 — Trump says he’ll “feel it in my bones” when the Iran war should end

* 29:42 — Report that Iran’s supreme leader was wounded / possibly disfigured

* 30:02 — Hegseth says Iran’s leaders are “hiding” and “cowering,” despite public appearances

* 30:20 — Trump loosens Russian oil sanctions to calm markets

* 30:32 — CNN: Trump officials reportedly failed to plan for Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz

* 32:38 — NATO intercepts another Iranian ballistic missile over Turkey

* 32:47 — Trump tells G7 leaders Iran is about to surrender; Iran says the opposite

* 33:52 — Trump’s “deranged scumbags” tweet about killing Iranians

* 36:17 — Bloomberg: oil could rise another $3 to $6 a barrel for every day the war continues

* 38:56 — Airline ticket prices spike as oil prices rise

* 39:40 — Trump uses a dead US servicemember’s coffin in a fundraising email

Additional topics from the extended discussion / last 45 minutes:

* 57:17 — Could US troops be headed to Lebanon?

* 57:57 — What happens to gas prices if oil hits $200 or $300 a barrel

* 1:00:39 — Why “we dropped more bombs” is not proof the war is going well

* 1:01:49 — What is the actual mission in Iran, and why does the goal keep changing?

* 1:03:58 — Kharg Island / Karg Island: what it is, why it matters, and whether the US could seize or strike it

* 1:10:22 — Why Trump is bluffing about going after Iran’s oil infrastructure

* 1:17:23 — CNN panel reaction to Trump’s threat tied to Iran’s oil exports

* 1:18:20 — Why attacking Iran’s oil could trigger Iranian retaliation against Saudi and regional oil facilities

* 1:20:56 — Risk of Houthi escalation

* 1:21:00 — How the war likely ends: Trump declares victory and walks away while the wider threat remains

This war is not calming down. It is getting bigger, more dangerous, and more expensive by the day. A US military refueling plane crashed over Iraq, killing six more American service members and bringing the number of Americans killed in action during this operation to thirteen. At the same time, the Pentagon is now moving more warships and a Marine Expeditionary Unit into the region, which sure looks like the administration is preparing for something larger around the Strait of Hormuz, possibly even a ground role if they think that is what it will take to secure shipping.

And what is especially damning is that CNN reports Trump officials admitted in classified briefings that they did not plan for Iran possibly closing the strait. That is insane. This is one of the most obvious risks in the entire conflict. If you attack Iran, of course one of the first things they may do is threaten global oil and gas flows. That is not some obscure possibility. That is basic, obvious, first-week-of-class geopolitics. And yet apparently the people running this war did not think it through.

Meanwhile, Trump is still talking like a man making this up by instinct, not strategy. He says he will “feel it in my bones” when the war should end. He is also telling G7 leaders Iran is about to surrender, then twenty-four hours later Iran’s new supreme leader is out publicly vowing to keep fighting. Hegseth is claiming the regime is desperate and hiding while Iran’s leadership is literally appearing in public. So once again, the administration’s public claims do not line up with reality.

And the cost keeps rising. Oil analysts now say the war could add three to six dollars a barrel for every single day it continues. Airline prices are already jumping hard. The administration is again loosening Russian oil sanctions to calm markets, which means Trump is effectively helping fund Putin’s war in Ukraine while trying to manage the fallout from his own war with Iran. That is the deeper theme here: chaos, contradiction, and no clear end in sight.

Tonight’s show covers two apparent terrorist attacks in the US, escalating fallout from Trump’s Iran war, Iran’s threat to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut, rising oil and gas prices, warnings of a possible US ground war to reopen shipping lanes, and the growing economic damage at home. I also cover Trump’s false claims about Iranian sleeper cells and Iran’s collapsing leadership, the soaring cost of the war, the school strike controversy, his attacks on CBS and the press, and then take audience questions on the war, the economy, media, and more.On tonight's show:* 0:00 Opening / going live across platforms* 2:10 Intro: two terrorist attacks in the US, then Iran and economy update* 5:05 Terrorist attack on synagogue in Detroit area* 6:08 Terrorist attack at Old Dominion University / ROTC classroom shooting* 8:14 Gulf Arab governments furious with Trump* 10:38 Trump claims there are many Iranian sleeper cells in the US* 13:36 Reuters: Iran’s leadership still largely intact* 14:06 Iran says Strait of Hormuz will stay effectively closed* 16:00 More vessels hit in the Strait of Hormuz / oil around $95* 16:28 Bloomberg forecast: oil could hit $140 or $164 if Hormuz stays closed* 17:42 Trump says he’s fine with higher oil prices* 19:06 Russia making an extra $150 million a day from rising oil prices* 19:19 US gas prices rising again* 20:21 Trump demands the Fed cut interest rates* 21:08 Mortgage rates rising again on inflation fears* 21:40 Reopening Hormuz may require a ground operation / possible US ground war* 23:25 Trump threatens the Iranian national soccer team* 24:17 NBC: first six days of war cost more than $11.3 billion* 24:39 Wash Post: Iranian school strike was approved after building was identified as a factory* 25:16 CBS hiring controversy / Trump furious over ex-Liz Cheney aide* 27:32 Corey Lewandowski under investigation at DHS* 29:34 Trump embarrassed by PBS NewsHour reporter Liz Landers* 32:04 White South Africans returning home after finding the US too dangerous* 33:05 Sasha cameo / dog break* 35:05 Main news update ends / Q&A beginsTopics from the last half hour / hangout:* 35:41 Return to the two terrorist attacks / ROTC clarification* 36:31 Morning show schedule and how you prep the morning updates* 37:26 Whether to be worried about the Iran war / concern about Trump having no clear objective* 38:40 Possible Iranian Epstein-themed propaganda post discussed, but not confirmed* 39:29 Gas prices, airlines, and companies keeping prices high even after oil falls* 40:18 Risks to the Navy if the US escorts ships through Hormuz* 40:55 Chicago River dyed green for St. Patrick’s Day* 43:27 Where you get your news / using X, reporters, experts, and live blogs* 45:12 Report of US military refueling plane crash in Iraq* 47:26 French soldiers injured in drone attack in Iraq* 49:46 Possible pro-Iran militia responsibility discussed* 50:19 Don Lemon as a possible guest* 51:28 TV interviews, Bill Maher, Fox/CNN, and missing a PBS NewsHour booking years ago* 53:29 Canada talk: Ottawa, Gatineau, Montreal, Toronto, Quebec City, French and poutine* 57:43 Belgium / Ghent story, travel memories, waffles, and local coverage of your visit* 1:05:58 Belgian language discussion: Flemish, French, Dutch, Ghent/Gand naming* 1:09:37 WWI/Belgium and eastern France/Germany border talk* 1:11:29 Wrap-up / Ashley’s dog in surgery / Saturday subscriber show reminder* 1:13:14 Sign-off

Trump is now claiming there are lots of Iranian sleeper cells in the US, and that we supposedly know where most of them are and are watching them. Which, of course, raises the obvious question: if that’s true, why aren’t we arresting them? Because it’s nonsense. It’s Trump doing what he always does, throwing out scary-sounding garbage and hoping nobody notices it doesn’t make any sense.

At the same time, Reuters reports that US intelligence believes Iran’s leadership is still largely intact and not close to collapsing, despite nearly two weeks of US and Israeli bombardment. That directly contradicts Trump’s claim that Iran’s leadership is basically gone. It isn’t. He lied about that too.

Meanwhile, Iran says it plans to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed indefinitely. More vessels were hit overnight, oil is back over $100 a barrel, and there is no end in sight. Bloomberg estimates that if Hormuz stays closed another month, oil could hit $140 a barrel, and if it stays shut longer, it could go even higher. And the bad news is that even after the strait reopens, prices are not expected to go back to where they were before.

Trump, in his usual brilliant fashion, says he’s fine with higher oil prices. He actually says stopping Iran matters more to him than oil prices, and even argues that the US makes a lot of money when oil goes up. No. His friends in the oil industry make a lot of money. The rest of us pay more for gas, more for food, more for shipping, more for airfare, more for literally everything. Oil touches everything.

Gasoline in the US is already up to about $3.59 a gallon, compared to $2.94 before the war started. And the US is now holding off on military escorts for civilian ships in the Strait of Hormuz because officials say it is too dangerous. Well, if it is too dangerous for the US military, then civilian shipping is not exactly going to rush in there either. That means this bottleneck is not ending anytime soon.

And the Wall Street Journal reports that reopening the strait may require a ground operation to seize part of Iran’s coastline. In other words, this could get much bigger, much bloodier, and much more expensive very quickly. NBC says the first six days of this war already cost more than $11.3 billion.

And finally, the Washington Post reports that the Iranian school building where all those girls were killed by a Tomahawk missile had been identified as a factory and approved as a US target. So now the question is whether bad intelligence did this, or whether AI did. Either way, this war keeps getting uglier.

The New York Times reports there’s an ongoing military investigation that has determined the US is responsible for a deadly Tomahawk missile strike on an Iranian elementary school. And instead of accountability, what do we get? A brand new justification for the war.

Yesterday, Witkoff, Trump’s top negotiator, who is not exactly Mr. Foreign Policy Experience, claimed Iran would have had thirty to forty nuclear bombs within a year if we hadn’t invaded. That is absolute b******t. Iran wasn’t even close to one bomb, let alone thirty or forty. And remember, this is the same crowd that told us last year that Iran’s nuclear program had been obliterated and was never coming back. So which is it? And, if Iran was about to build 40 nuclear bombs, why is today the first time we’re hearing about this? That’s the best justification, ever, for going to war, and they didn’t tell us? That’s because it isn’t real.

Meanwhile, the war is spreading in exactly the ways people warned it would. Oman says it downed a drone north of Duqm. There’s video of a huge fire at an oil storage tank there. The UAE says its air defenses were engaging missiles and drones. Qatar says it intercepted an Iranian missile attack. Iran also attacked three cargo ships in or near the Strait of Hormuz, which, just as a reminder, is one of the most critical energy shipping chokepoints in the world. And Iran is estimated to have five thousand to six thousand naval mines. Meanwhile, Iran is now two hundred dollar oil, though the experts don’t think that’s the likely outcome right now, but this is not nothing. Oil is back to the eighty-dollar range, though gasoline is up a smidge to $3.58 a gallon, and the International Energy Agency is planning to release four hundred million barrels from emergency reserves, the biggest release in history, just to try to keep prices under control. That should tell you how serious this is.

And the human cost is getting worse, while the administration keeps slow-walking the truth. CBS reports that an Iranian drone attack in Kuwait that killed US service members early in the war was more severe than previously known. Yeah, what a surprise. They didn’t tell us how bad it was for our troops. More than thirty service members are still in hospitals with brain trauma, shrapnel injuries, and burns. You’ve got wounded at Brook Army Medical Center in San Antonio, at Walter Reed, at Landstuhl in Germany. Again, this administration keeps acting like if they hide the facts, the reality somehow changes. It doesn’t. Our troops are paying the price for a war sold with lies, managed with lies, and now constantly re-justified with fresh lies every day.

Then there’s Russia, because of course. CNN reports Russia is still helping Iran, this time with advanced drone tactics. This comes right after Trump assured us Putin promised he wasn’t helping Iran. We can trust him, they said. Sure. And now we find out the Russians are still helping kill US troops. Keep in mind, at the same time, the Trump administration is lifting oil sanctions on Russia and planning to lift more, helping the Russians make even more money while they’re aiding the people attacking us. Also, according to the New York Times, Iran may still retain as much as fifty percent of its missiles and launchers. So after all this destruction, after all this chest-thumping, they still have a huge amount of capability left. Brilliant work, guys. (Interestingly, Trump claims the war is almost over, in an interview with Axios today, because, he says, there’s nothing left to hit. Does the blazing oil field in Oman, and the three tankers on fire, get a vote?)

And finally, the American people are not buying this. Public support for the war is consistently around forty-one percent. That is historically low compared to other major US conflicts. The 1991 Gulf War had support in the eighties. Afghanistan was in the nineties. Iraq in 2003 was in the seventies. Even Libya polled better than this. So when you hear the White House and its cheerleaders trying to act like the country is united behind this mess, that’s simply not true. Americans understand when they’re being manipulated. They understand when the story keeps changing. And they understand that when a government has to invent a new rationale for war every twenty-four hours, it’s because the original rationale never held up in the first place.

That’s it for this morning. Make sure to join my live show at 6pm ET.

JOHN

Tonight’s show is about an Iran war that’s getting uglier, more expensive, and somehow even more incoherent by the day. We now know more than 140 US servicemembers have been injured, but the White House only admitted it after Reuters got the story. They were not going to tell us. At the same time, Iran is reportedly laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, oil is still volatile, gas prices are climbing again, and Trump is doing his usual routine of saying five contradictory things before lunch.Here's the show:* 3:40 — 140+ US servicemembers injured, and the White House only admitted it after Reuters got the leak* 5:34 — Reports that Iran has started laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz* 7:03 — Trump’s contradictory claims about mine-laying boats and whether the US even knows what Iran has done* 9:28 — Trump “TACO’d” again, signaling the war was winding down, then immediately escalating his rhetoric* 11:20 — Trump says the war is both “very complete” and “just the beginning”* 12:25 — Iran hints at a threat against Trump* 12:36 — Axios scoop: Zelensky pitched Trump an anti-drone plan for the Middle East, and Trump blew it off* 15:07 — Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, now moving toward Ukrainian anti-drone and air-defense systems* 16:08 — Oil prices fall back from weekend highs, but gas prices are still rising* 16:52 — Trump falsely claims a Strait of Hormuz shutdown would not really affect the US* 17:41 — Trump suggests the US might use its military to keep the strait open as a favor to China* 17:58 — The White House rolls out yet another new set of war goals* 19:08 — Regime change disappears from the official goal list, though it may not really be off the table* 19:22 — Karoline Leavitt defends Trump’s shifting war justifications with “a feeling based on facts”* 23:17 — Pentagon reportedly burning through nearly $3 billion a day in munitions* 23:42 — Trump team asks Israel not to hit more Iranian energy infrastructure* 24:37 — Trump keeps trying to dodge blame for the strike on a girls’ school in Iran* 25:09 — Why Trump’s Tomahawk missile excuse makes no sense* 27:25 — NYT reporter presses Trump on why he is the only one pushing the Tomahawk theory* 29:55 — Hegseth under fire for lavish Pentagon spending on furniture, food, electronics, and more* 34:14 — Trump negotiator says Russia can be taken “at its word” on helping Iran target US assets* 36:31 — Trump says Putin “wants to be helpful”* 36:57 — Trump says he is surprised Iran retaliated against Gulf neighbors* 39:04 — Trump’s comments about sinking Iranian ships and the war-crime criticism* 39:46 — New Quinnipiac polling shows majority opposition to the war* 40:31 — How support for this war compares with past US wars* 42:22 — Zelensky says Ukrainian intelligence obtained Russian battlefield-loss documents* 45:50 — Ukraine expected to get 35 Patriot interceptors in the coming weeks* 46:12 — Hundreds of strangers attend the funeral of a Tennessee veteran with no known relativesOpen discussion / extra topics after the prepared portion:* 48:20 — Iranian “sleeper cell” fears and why Trump created the current danger* 49:05 — Sasha update and a bit about her activity today* 50:31 — Weather in DC and balcony / plant talk* 50:46 — You talk about writing as a stringer for The Economist* 51:11 — More discussion of the Hegseth spending story, including whether some of the seafood may have been for troops* 55:00 — Seafood boil, Cajun food, and seafood preferences* 56:00 — French / Italian / Spanish tangent about “fruits de mer”* 57:08 — Pentagon pizza-order tracking as a sign of possible military activity* 58:42 — Possibility of ending the show early because you were tired* 59:18 — Joe Rogan turns on Trump over the Iran war* 62:19 — Joe Rogan’s reach and why his criticism matters politically* 65:10 — Quick live check for breaking news* 66:30 — More CNN reporting on Iran’s mine-laying and why clearing the strait would be dangerous* 69:10 — Sign-off

That’s it for now. Make sure to check out my live show here at 6pm ET.

A week into this war, the one thing the Trump administration still cannot tell us is what it thinks it is doing. On one hand, Trump is suddenly hinting that the war may be nearly over, that we’re “very far” ahead of schedule, and that he already has someone in mind to replace Khamenei. On the other hand, we’re also hearing reports that he’s considering taking over the Strait of Hormuz and killing Iran’s new leader. Hegseth goes on 60 Minutes and says the war is “just beginning,” while the Pentagon posts that “we have only begun to fight.” So which is it? Are we winding down, or are we escalating into a larger regional war? On tonight’s show, I cover:0:03 Trump’s press event turns out to be mostly nonsense after reports he might be about to end the war8:08 Trump says the war may be “pretty much over,” even as his own team says the opposite8:31 Trump claims the US is “very far” ahead of the war’s original timeline9:30 Trump talks about killing Iran’s new leader and taking over the Strait of Hormuz10:09 The administration’s war goals change again: missiles, missile factories, and Iran’s navy11:46 A seventh US servicemember dies: Sgt. Benjamin N. Pennington of Kentucky12:38 Trump says he may take over the Strait of Hormuz and may kill Iran’s new leader13:00 Iran picks Khamenei’s son as successor, raising fears the regime could become even more radical14:36 New reports say Delta Force may be needed to secure Iran’s nuclear fuel15:37 Oil briefly spikes to $130 a barrel, and Trump appears to have tried calming markets16:48 JPMorgan’s blunt assessment of how the war ends: munitions, markets, and midterms17:20 New NPR/PBS/Marist polling shows weak public support for the war18:42 Lindsey Graham criticism, Israel’s strikes on Iranian oil facilities, and widening regional fallout19:56 Trump reportedly considers lifting more oil sanctions on Russia20:39 New evidence points to the US strike on the girls’ school in Iran, despite Trump’s denials22:45 Trump’s mixed messaging on the school strike and whether he is backing off the war23:45 Trump shows up to the transfer of fallen US troops wearing a baseball cap and merch28:23 Explosion damages the entrance to the US Embassy in Oslo29:06 Anthropic sues the Pentagon after refusing to help build mass-surveillance and autonomous weapons systems29:10 Major Havana Syndrome revelations after reports of a possible microwave weapon tied to Russia38:59 Trump’s bogus claim that the war is ahead of schedule gets even harder to defend42:56 More on Iran’s new leadership and why regime change could make things worseLater viewer Q&A / bonus topics:50:23 No, there is not going to be a military draft, and the boots-on-the-ground rumor got distorted53:30 Why Democrats are favored to retake the House, and why the Senate is suddenly more competitive55:17 Gas prices, oil shock fallout, and what Americans may see next at the pump1:05:56 A weird but funny detour into Canadian gallons, imperial measurements, and why metric never fully took over in the US

On tonight’s show, I cover:

* 05:24 — Russia is reportedly giving Iran intelligence to help target US forces, and Leavitt says it “does not really matter”

* 06:22 — Trump eases Russia oil sanctions while Moscow is helping Iran

* 06:41 — Bessent says the US may unsanction even more Russian oil

* 08:15 — Ground troop fears grow as Hegseth and Rubio reportedly clash

* 09:03 — Washington Post report: 82nd Airborne training exercise canceled, fueling invasion speculation

* 09:24 — CNN poll: only 12% support sending US ground troops to Iran

* 10:16 — Leavitt’s shifting definition of Trump’s “unconditional surrender” demand

* 11:41 — Trump gives his own different definition of “unconditional surrender”

* 12:16 — Regime change is suddenly back on the table

* 13:09 — Rubio tells Arab foreign ministers the US goal is supposedly not regime change

* 14:00 — The war’s goals keep changing: nukes, missiles, “imminent threat,” Israel, regime change

* 16:20 — New economic numbers: jobs were expected to rise, but the economy lost 92,000 jobs instead

* 17:17 — Stagflation fears: unemployment and inflation rising at the same time

* 20:24 — Why energy prices are rising: the Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut

* 22:13 — About 20% of the world’s oil and major natural gas flows are at risk

* 23:23 — Kuwait begins cutting production because it cannot move enough crude

* 23:31 — US crude jumps above $90 a barrel

* 23:46 — Oil is up 36% for the week

* 23:53 — Qatar warns oil could hit $150 a barrel

* 24:12 — Energy experts warn markets are near a panic moment

* 24:35 — US gas prices jump 11% in five days

* 25:01 — Some experts warn average gas prices could hit $4 soon

* 25:25 — Pentagon says the war could last through September

* 26:13 — Jet fuel spike means airfare is about to get more expensive

* 27:17 — Trump says if prices rise, they rise

* 28:27 — Reports say the administration waited days to start thinking about calming oil markets

* 30:03 — Trump’s Hormuz tanker insurance idea reportedly falls apart

* 31:28 — Trump on possible retaliation at home: “some people will die”

* 33:34 — US military reportedly believes US forces may have hit the girls’ school in Iran, possibly due to an AI targeting error

* 34:08 — Trump starts closing embassies before Americans in the region are fully evacuated

* 35:45 — DOJ reportedly looks at charges against Cuban leaders as Trump again threatens Cuba

* 36:50 — Estimated cost of the Iran war: roughly $200 billion to $400 billion if it runs through September

* 37:34 — War polling is awful for Trump

* 39:10 — Fox poll: Trump approval 32%, disapproval 67%

* 39:51 — Generic ballot: Democrats 48, Republicans 42

Later in the show, I also cover:

* 44:27 — A nightmare United Nations workplace story and toxic-boss tangent

* 51:51 — Viewer Q&A: whether pipelines or alternate routes could bypass the Strait of Hormuz

* 53:12 — Why Turkey is in NATO, and whether that still makes strategic sense

* 55:55 — Cuba’s fuel crisis and what that could mean militarily

* 57:18 — Russia looks overstretched, and what happens if China moves on Taiwan

* 58:07 — Viewer question on China-Iran military ties and whether China is helping Iran directly

* 60:04 — Return to Russia helping Iran target US assets, and Trump’s refusal to seriously confront Moscow

* 61:59 — Brief end-of-show hangout: new mattress, pricing weirdness, and home setup talk

* 66:09 — Daylight saving time, dogs, sleep disruption, and why changing the clocks is stupid

* 67:11 — Sasha update: aging, mobility, and dog-years discussion

* 72:05 — Weekend show plans and war-update schedule

Tonight’s show is a snapshot of a White House and a war effort that are both spiraling — and the through-line is incompetence dressed up as confidence. Domestically, the Kristi Noem mess keeps getting uglier: she’s reportedly out not because of the “murder” scandal, but because the TV coverage was too toxic, so she gets parked in a fake new job while Corey Lewandowski also heads for the exits. And in peak Trump-world logic, Sen. Markwayne Mullin is reportedly being tapped as the replacement because Trump likes how he looks on television. That’s the hiring rubric. We’re all just living inside it.On the battlefield side, the war’s toll keeps rising and the information space is getting even dirtier. The Pentagon has now released the names of two additional US servicemembers killed in Kuwait by an Iranian drone: Major Jeffrey O’Brien and Chief Warrant Officer 3 Robert Marzan. At the same time, rumors flew that Iran shot down two US planes — US officials deny it, though one was reportedly said to be over southern Iraq. And the region looks like it’s becoming a target map: Azerbaijan reportedly hit as Iran tries to disrupt rerouted Europe–Asia flight paths, Qatari fighter jets reportedly intercepted Iranian bombers that came within minutes of striking al-Udeid, a tanker was hit by a large explosion off Kuwait causing an oil spill, and a key refinery in Bahrain was reportedly hit by Iranian missiles and drones.Then comes the part that hits everybody’s wallet — the war is now an energy crisis on a countdown clock. US crude jumped 8.5% to just over $81, Brent climbed to about $85, and both benchmarks have been ripping higher this week. White House aides are reportedly panicking over gas prices, with the national average up about 27 cents since the war began, and reports of sharp spikes in places like DC and parts of the country — while jet fuel prices have doubled. Trump’s response to Reuters on rising gas prices is basically: I don’t care, it’s more important, and “if they rise, they rise.” Meanwhile Europe is getting hammered too: natural gas prices reportedly jumped 53% in just days, tied to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and strikes hitting Qatari LNG production. And the Strait itself is flashing red — roughly 80 oil and gas tankers normally pass through daily, but CNN cited S&P Global data showing zero transits on Wednesday, after only a few the day before, compared to dozens right before the war began.Finally, we’re going to connect the political incentives to the escalation — because the messaging is getting as reckless as the operations. Trump is claiming Iran reached out to “make a deal” and that the war is “ahead of schedule,” even as the stated goals keep changing by the hour. He’s also reportedly saying Iran has to “approve” their next leader with him — which tells you a lot about how he thinks the world works. Inside the administration, Stephen Miller is out here arguing Trump can sell a new war as “anti-war” because the military is “no longer woke,” while polling shows MAGA Republicans overwhelmingly back the strikes even as non-MAGA Republicans are more split. And there’s reportedly an internal fight over whether to send US troops into Iran — Rubio warning against a long entanglement, Hegseth pushing the other direction. We’ll also dig into the machinery of this war: reports of talks to buy Ukrainian-made drone interceptors, the sheer burn rate of Patriot missiles, and the unnerving detail that an AI pairing (“Maven, powered by Claude”) is reportedly accelerating targeting decisions. Plus the side shows — like Jeanne Pirro claiming she’s still investigating Biden over an autopen — and the broader geopolitical tremors, including reports about Poland discussing nukes and Finland weighing changes to nuclear-weapons transit rules.

The Senate voted down a War Powers resolution that would have blocked Trump from ordering further strikes on Iran, so the war continues. Trump’s team is still selling the decision with shifting rationales: claims Iran was “two weeks” from nuclear material or a bomb, warnings about longer-term ICBM capability, and broader talk of “cumulative threats.” Karoline Leavitt added that Trump had a “feeling” Iran was about to strike US assets, and Trump again repeated the “two weeks” nuclear line today. In the same briefing, Leavitt attacked Biden as “stupid and incompetent” for supporting Ukraine — even as Ukraine is now being asked to help with US air defense.The practical problem is cost and capability. Hegseth said he didn’t anticipate Iranian drones would be this difficult to defeat cheaply, with the US using expensive Patriot interceptors against low-cost drones, and reports say US stocks of Patriot and other interceptors are running low. The Washington Post reports the US may be “days away” from having to prioritize which targets to intercept and which to let through. Trump has called defense contractor executives to the White House Friday to accelerate weapons production, raising the obvious question of why that wasn’t done before the fighting began.I’m also covering the widening fallout: the Pentagon’s estimated cost of about $1 billion per day and Trump asking Congress for $50 billion more; the deaths of six US service members in Kuwait in a suspected Iranian drone attack and Hegseth blaming media coverage for trying to make Trump look bad, contrasted with the Joint Chiefs chair opening by naming the fallen. There are also reports of a US submarine attack on an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka with at least 101 missing and 78 wounded, and Iran launching a ballistic missile at NATO ally Turkey that was intercepted. The White House says ground troops aren’t part of the plan “for now,” while reports suggest CIA-backed Kurdish forces in western Iran are escalating. And on the civilian side, Trump admits there was no evacuation plan for Americans in the region because it “happened all very quickly,” even though US military personnel were moved out earlier; the US has now closed embassies in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Lebanon, and gas prices are spiking sharply.

The US–Iran war is accelerating fast — and it’s starting to look less like a “contained strike campaign” and more like a rolling crisis.Reports now claim a US submarine hit an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka, with at least 101 missing and 78 wounded. Iran also reportedly launched a ballistic missile toward NATO ally Turkey, intercepted over the eastern Mediterranean. If missiles are flying toward a NATO country, this is no longer a neat US–Iran box. That’s escalation with alliance risk baked in.The operational problem is just as scary: US air defenses aren’t infinite. Stockpiles get chewed up when you’re shooting down waves of cheap drones with multi-million-dollar interceptors. Reporting suggests the US may soon have to prioritize what it intercepts — and what it lets through. That’s not strategy. That’s triage.Trump is reportedly calling in major defense contractors to surge weapons production while asking Congress for at least $50B in special war funding. Embassies have closed in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Lebanon as the civilian evacuation story lags behind reality.And the justification keeps shifting — nukes, ICBMs, “Iran was about to attack” — even as the IAEA says there’s “no evidence” Iran is building a nuclear weapon.Bottom line: escalation is outrunning planning, and nobody is offering a credible endpoint.Here are the topics we discussed:* 4:21 US submarine reportedly attacks an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka; 101 missing, 78 wounded.* 4:52 Iran reportedly launches a ballistic missile at NATO ally Turkey; intercepted over the eastern Mediterranean.* 5:48 US reportedly running low on Patriot/interceptors — $4M missiles vs $20K drones; Ukraine offers help.* 6:51 Washington Post: US is “days away” from triaging what to intercept — and what to let through.* 7:13 Trump calls in top US defense contractors Friday to accelerate weapons production.* 7:52 War cost now at least $50B; Trump seeks special emergency funding from Congress.* 8:27 Report: CIA arming Kurdish forces in western Iran to spark internal conflict/civil war.* 10:37 Trump admits no plan to evacuate Americans from the Middle East; thousands stranded.* 13:40 Trump’s rationale shifts again: now claims Iran was going to attack first.* 17:14 US closes embassies in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Lebanon.* 18:02 Nuclear-justification whiplash: claims about nukes/ICBMs vs watchdog pushback; what changed and why?* 21:51 Friendly fire report: Kuwaiti FA-18 downed three USAF F-15Es over Kuwait; coalition info-sharing breakdown.* 22:20 Hegseth attacks the media for making the six US deaths in Kuwait “front page news.”* 25:30 CBS/YouGov: 69% say Trump needs Congressional approval to continue military action; 31% say he doesn’t.* 25:38 Report: Iran was willing to give up enriched uranium — a key US demand — when Trump attacked.* 25:50 After calling Claude a “risk,” Defense Dept reportedly uses Claude for targeting and battlefield simulation.* 25:55 Trump attacks Spain over airbase access, floats embargo; Spain’s PM calls the Iran attack a “catastrophe.”* 28:32 US gasoline prices surge at the fastest two-day pace since 2005.* 28:40 Trump opens another front: Ecuador operation targeting terrorist drug lords/traffickers.Off-script / last ~15 minutes:* 42:31 Prediction markets shift on who controls the Senate; Harry Enten flags it as meaningful.* 43:28 Trump’s poll numbers crater; even parts of his base reportedly furious about the war.* 43:42 “Little elections” signal: Texas turnout and unexpected Democratic strength.* 51:08 Q&A: China’s energy dependence and Middle East oil flows — where Iran/Saudi exports end up.* 51:48 “Kraken” / House-seat tangent: primaries, gerrymandering, and what a “loss” actually means.* 52:31 Dan Crenshaw shocker: loses Texas primary; what it says about GOP/MAGA dynamics.

Here is tonight’s show:

* 00:00 — Going live / getting set up (comments, platforms)

* 01:30 — IG/TikTok/Substack housekeeping + audience hello

* 03:00 — Framing the night: things are getting worse fast (and what “winning” even means)

* 04:30 — Quick background/context for why you’re reading this the way you are

* 05:00 — Sen. Roger Wicker: after a classified briefing, admin “not ruling out” boots on the ground

* 06:00 — What “boots on the ground” actually means (and how it escalates)

* 06:30 — Rubio’s “imminent threat” story + the Israel angle

* 07:30 — Admin backtracking / “out of context” excuse — you replay the clip and call BS

* 09:00 — The logic pretzel: “Israel would strike, Iran would hit us, so we had to invade”

* 10:30 — Rubio’s posture shift + why the narrative keeps changing

* 11:30 — Rubio “lunatics” video / his simplistic pitch for why this is “the right decision”

* 12:30 — The nukes/missiles/drones rationale — and why you think it’s reckless framing

* 13:30 — Your rule of thumb: when the reasons keep changing, something’s wrong

* 14:30 — Goalposts moving: yesterday it was 8 goals, today it’s 4

* 15:30 — Regime change language vs denial — what “regime change” actually implies

* 16:30 — The “arm the rebels” problem (and how that can blow up in your face)

* 18:00 — Trump asked “worst case?” → “someone just as bad takes over” (you unpack the insanity of that)

* 19:00 — Trump: “it was my opinion” they were about to attack us / then it becomes “about to attack Israel”

* 20:00 — “Opinion” vs intelligence vs justification — you hammer the contradiction

* 21:30 — Trump: “virtually unlimited” munitions — then simultaneous whining about stocks

* 22:30 — “No plan” for Americans because it “happened so quickly” — you call it negligence

* 23:30 — Embassy closures + evacuation chaos (Saudi/Kuwait/Lebanon) + scale of Americans at risk

* 25:00 — Americans calling State: long holds, then canned scripts; you compare it to other countries organizing airlifts

* 26:00 — Saudi embassy hit in a multi-drone attack (roof collapse/smoke) + personnel sheltering

* 26:40 — Dubai consulate parking lot drone hit

* 27:30 — Kuwait strike kills 6 US service members: “fortified facility” vs what it actually was

* 29:00 — CBS details: requests for better drone defenses / warning not to use the makeshift TOC

* 30:00 — Vance positioning: “didn’t want to go in” vs “go in hard” vs Trump claiming Vance was on board

* 31:30 — Assembly of Experts hit / Iran succession politics (why that matters)

* 33:00 — Allies/Europe: how this war is already colliding with broader alliance management

* 34:00 — Trump attacks Spain (and the “what the hell is he even mad about?” angle)

* 35:00 — The UK rant / cross-pressure with allies while you’re asking them for support

* 36:00 — Diego Garcia mention — basing/access implications and Trump’s threats

* 37:30 — The pattern: trash allies for years → demand loyalty the moment you go to war

* 38:30 — Gas spike (big single-day jump) and the domestic blowback starting

* 40:00 — CNN poll: support vs opposition numbers (and what that signals)

* 40:30 — Reuters supply warning: prolonged conflict risks disrupting US-made air-defense deliveries to Europe/Ukraine

* 41:30 — Quick detour: language nerd moment / audience chat while you scroll and verify items

* 43:30 — Pakistan/Karachi thread: you flag uncertainty + the “don’t trust viral claims instantly” warning

* 45:00 — AI/misinformation problem: why you’re skeptical of circulating photos/posts

* 46:30 — Reports about strikes/casualties: what’s confirmed vs what’s still fog-of-war

* 48:00 — Civilian casualties argument: you walk through the moral/strategic trap people fall into

* 49:30 — “This isn’t Gaza” — why you separate contexts and still worry about mission creep

* 51:00 — Audience Q&A / your “I’m getting worried” shift as the scope expands

* 52:30 — War language: officials calling it a “war” — what that implies politically and legally

* 54:00 — War powers / Congress / “who authorized what?” — your frustration with the framing

* 55:30 — You explicitly park other domestic news so the Iran story doesn’t get diluted

* 56:30 — Platform/stream hiccups (Facebook/tech weirdness) + housekeeping

* 57:00 — Pentagon identifies Army Reserve deaths; reacting to names/ages and what it says about escalation

* 59:30 — Continuing on Reserve casualties + why this is already becoming “real war” for Americans

* 61:30 — Back to the Kurdish opposition/CIA reporting: “jumpstart uprising” talk and how dangerous it is

* 63:00 — Why “arming opposition groups” is a high-risk play (blowback, fragmentation, unintended outcomes)

* 65:00 — More on Iranian succession dynamics / clerics / who could emerge next

* 67:30 — Wrap-up + sign-off across platforms

In today’s update, I walk through how quickly this war is sliding from “regional conflict” into a full-on crisis for Americans on the ground. The US is now closing embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and ordering evacuations across 14 countries — days late — with airspace shut and no clear way out for the roughly 300,000 Americans stuck in the region. I cover the chaos and incompetence: Marines opening fire after protesters storm the US consulate in Karachi, Americans calling State’s emergency line and sitting on hold only to get a canned script that they can’t help, while other countries like Italy are already organizing airlifts. I also get into the direct threats: the US embassy in Saudi Arabia hit in a multi-drone attack, the roof collapsing, the interior contaminated with smoke, and personnel still sheltering in place.Then I connect the dots on why this war keeps getting more dangerous — because the policy story and the operational reality don’t match. Trump is flip-flopping on regime change, now openly talking about supporting armed groups in Iran, while more Republicans admit out loud that Israel effectively forced Trump’s hand (including Speaker Johnson and Tom Cotton echoing Rubio’s line that Israel was the “imminent threat” factor). I walk through the deadly Kuwait strike that killed six US service members — a so-called “fortified facility” that was actually a makeshift operations center in a trailer with weak defenses, where troops had asked for more anti-drone capability and didn’t get it. I cover Israel reportedly blowing up a meeting of Iran’s Assembly of Experts that may have been selecting a new Supreme Leader, and the insanity of Kash Patel firing a counter-espionage team focused on Iran threats at the worst possible moment. And I close with the political and economic blowback already hitting home: Trump contradicting himself on weapons stockpiles, gas prices jumping 12 cents in a day, and new polling showing the public isn’t rallying — 41% support, 59% oppose.

* 00:00:02 — Show opens / going live across platforms

* 00:03:15 — Kuwait: “two more U.S. service members are dead,” toll up to six; drone attack on a US base

* 00:04:09 — Rubio/Israel: “we’re in this war for Israel” / Israel forced Trump’s hand

* 00:11:15 — Casualties/politics framing: Hillary-era hearings vs deaths piling up now

* 00:16:21 — Matt Walsh: MAGA unease at the shifting justification / messaging is a mess

* 00:18:48 — Regime-change/not-regime-change contradictions start piling up

* 00:18:51 — “We obliterated their nuclear program” messaging thread

* 00:20:27 — Hezbollah/Lebanon spillover discussion

* 00:26:02 — Trump escalation rhetoric: “the big wave is coming”

* 00:28:27 — “We took out Iran’s air defenses” → what that changes

* 00:28:29 — Bombers/strike-profile shift and what becomes possible next

* 00:29:30 — CNN poll: approve vs disapprove + “does Trump have a plan?”

* 00:31:30 — Strait of Hormuz: the real global tripwire (shipping/energy)

* 00:32:42 — Shipping under attack / wider economic fallout

* 00:33:35 — Hegseth clip: what he’s signaling / refusing to rule out

* 00:39:01 — Qatar: power plant/LNG facility targeting talk

* 00:39:08 — Europe shock: “natural gas prices jumped” after LNG disruption reports

* 00:39:21 — Cyprus: attacks where British troops are stationed (reporting thread)

* 00:39:30 — RAF Akrotiri: drone/runway reporting and what it signals

* 00:39:48 — Der Spiegel: strikes near Jordan/Iraq bases; German troops mentioned

* 00:39:56 — France moving naval assets closer

* 00:40:47 — Air-defense strain: interceptor stockpiles + burn rate reality

* 00:41:10 — Whiplash claim: Iran “two weeks away” from nukes

* 00:41:33 — Target set broadening: intelligence/security infrastructure framing

* 00:43:51 — Melania / UN Security Council optics moment

* 00:45:03 — School strike story: “blowing up a school of little girls” thread

* 00:45:35 — Axios datapoint: Trump strikes spanning multiple countries

* 00:45:55 — Hypocrisy/callbacks: Vance + Tulsi prior “no war in Iran” posture

* 00:48:48 — Iron Dome cost-per-interceptor reality check

* 00:48:49 — Iron Beam contrast (cost disparity / defensive economics)

* 00:52:47 — “Wall” lineup controversy setup (Charlie Kirk mention begins)

* 00:53:21 — Booker T. Washington invoked in the “wall” comparison

* 00:53:29 — Catherine Beecher mention + you asking who she is

* 00:58:21 — Live lookup: Wikipedia dive on Booker T. Washington legacy/controversy

* 01:06:09 — Regime-change chatter: the “Venezuela model” idea and why it’s dangerous

* 01:06:39 — Ayatollah killing framed personally; escalation psychology

In today’s show, I walk through why this Iran war is no longer even pretending to be “contained.” The battlefield is expanding in real time, and the US is already paying in blood and hardware. We’ve now got a fourth US service member dead after an Iranian drone attack on a US base in Kuwait — three killed initially, then one of the injured dying afterward. And in the same breath, we’re dealing with a surreal friendly-fire fiasco: three US F-15E fighters shot down over Kuwait by the Kuwaitis — our allies — forcing the crews to eject. This is what escalation looks like when everyone’s finger is on the trigger and nobody’s in control.

Then I get into Trump, because Trump is always the accelerant. His story keeps changing, his goals keep shifting, and the contradictions aren’t “messaging problems” — they’re the tell. He’s out here claiming Iran was “two weeks away” from a nuclear weapon, while he also spent last June boasting he “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program and it was “never coming back.” Both can’t be true. And even inside MAGA world, you’ve got major voices openly asking what the hell the plan is, because the administration can’t decide whether this is regime change, a nukes mission, a missile mission, or some fantasy liberation storyline that magically ends well.

I also focus hard on the global economic tripwire: the Strait of Hormuz. I literally map it out, because people don’t grasp how small the choke point is — and how catastrophic it is when it closes. Iran is effectively shutting it down, hitting shipping and warning traffic off, and the numbers are insane: roughly 20% of the world’s oil moves through that lane, and we’re also talking a massive chunk of LNG — with Qatar as the key player. In the show, I walk through how Qatar shutting down exports turns this from a regional war into a global price shock. Oil spikes. Gas spikes. Supply chains seize up. It doesn’t take a nuclear weapon to blow up the world economy — it just takes Hormuz going dark.

Finally, I tie it together with the regional spread and the ugly math the Pentagon doesn’t want to talk about. We’re dragging more players into the blast radius — Hezbollah opening another front by hitting Israel, the Cyprus problem and the British base at Akrotiri looming over the eastern Med, and the broader reality that this war is now intersecting with allied basing and regional escalation dynamics whether anyone “wants” it to or not. And then there’s the sustainability problem: the Pentagon anxiety about this lasting weeks, limited US defense stockpiles, and the cost asymmetry that should terrify you — you can burn through two or three multimillion-dollar Patriot interceptors to stop one cheap incoming drone or a comparatively inexpensive missile. That’s how wars grind on: not just with explosions, but with depletion. And once you’re in that cycle, the exit ramps disappear fast.

On today’s breaking live show, I broke down the US attack on Iran — and why Trump calling it “war” matters. He didn’t sell this as a limited strike. He framed it like an open-ended conflict, and if the goal is regime change (which is what his rhetoric keeps pointing to), then we’re not talking about a quick “in and out” mission. We’re talking about the Iraq playbook: toppling a government is not easy; but even then, it doesn't get easier. Everything that comes after is where you bleed money, lives, and credibility — and where “what replaces them?” can be just as bad (or worse) than what you started with.I also dug into the contradictions and propaganda swirling around this: Trump claiming Iran’s nuclear program was already “obliterated,” while simultaneously using nukes-and-missiles talking points to justify a brand-new war; the very real risk of escalation through proxy forces and terror attacks (because Iran can’t hit the US mainland with conventional weapons, but it can absolutely try to make the world hurt in other ways); and the nightmare scenario where this spirals into an economic shock — oil, shipping lanes, the Strait of Hormuz — the kind of “consequences” everyone pretends don’t exist until your grocery bill spikes overnight.And yes, I said the quiet part out loud: this is what it looks like when Congress (especially Republicans) refuses to use the brakes it actually has. A president gets to “declare war” on camera, and the system just shrugs. That’s not strength. That’s dysfunction — and it’s how you stumble into a bigger regional war while everyone argues over the spin.

Run of show (talking points)

* 0:00 — Housekeeping / going live / setup

* 4:46 — Coffee tok opener

* 6:24 — Trump orders government to cut ties with Claude / Anthropic

* 7:14 — “Mass surveillance / autonomous weapons” angle

* 15:45 — Pentagon cuts tuition assistance at top universities

* 18:26 — Paramount/WBD/CNN deal; Netflix bows out; regulators next

* 21:03 — Trump says he won’t return tariff money

* 22:10 — FAA flight restrictions after DOD shoots down CBP drone

* 23:22 — Blind Rohingya man dies after ICE/DHS actions

* 26:39 — Flynn + Lindell: draft EO / election “emergency” + third-term talk

* 32:37 — Hillary Clinton/Epstein: UFOs + Pizzagate mention

* 39:13 — Melania Trump to lead a UN Security Council meeting

* 39:54 — FCC/media pressure: Bartiromo + Brendan Carr remarks

* 44:28 — Politico.eu: AfD asks about NATO vulnerabilities (Hedgehog 2025)

* 46:26 — Spectator: intercepted calls/messages; Russians mocking Trump

* 47:07 — Netherlands train sabotage / Gen. Ben Hodges mention

Topics pulled from the last ~30 minutes (after ~51:48)

* 51:53 — Chat: Hillary as campaigner; 2016 rally anecdote

* 54:28 — Chat: streaming setup (phone vs iPad), Twitch multi-stream, video quality

* 58:00 — Chat: moving to Europe after citizenship; DC; shipping/downsizing

* 58:19 — Chat: Veep / HBO Max tangent

* 1:00:23 — Chat: retirement/tax talk (Greece vs France vs Italy)

* 1:01:47 — Chat: Sasha updates (walk, bed frame, ramp)

* 1:08:27 — Chat: Sicily cheap-home/residency program tangent

* 1:15:02 — Late update: Pentagon conditions to use OpenAI (per “Oxygen” mention)

* 1:18:31 — Return to Anthropic: “trust your military” quote riff

* 1:21:21 — Final wrap / goodnights

Start with the big one: media consolidation. The Ellison family (huge MAGA) already controls TikTok and CBS. And now they’re buying Warner Bros., which means CNN. So picture the board: Republicans have Fox sewn up. They’ve got pressure points with the Washington Post because Jeff Bezos is forever trying to get on Trump’s good side. And now the same political network controls TikTok and CBS looks now like they’re gonna get CNN too. In any functional country, antitrust would tackle this like a five-alarm fire. In Trump’s America, the people who are supposed to stop it are the same people who benefit from it. The only real question is timing: Does it get done before November? If Democrats take the House — and potentially even the Senate — that changes the terrain. Not because Congress can magically “undo” a merger with vibes, but because oversight becomes real again. Hearings become real. Pressure becomes real. And the public narrative stops being whatever the billionaire owners want it to be. Also, if Dems take the entire Congress, maybe they can stop the merger entirely, if it hasn’t happened already. (Also, Europe is a wild card — they have to approve the merger too.)

Then there was Hillary Clinton’s US House testimony about Jeffrey Epstein, which was a master class in: “Why am I even here?” She said she’d never met Epstein, never went to his island, never traveled with him, and isn’t aware of any crimes. And she also made the point that if you want to talk about Epstein and powerful men, you might want to drag in the guy who’s actually been accused of horrific conduct — Donald Trump — instead of using me (Hillary) as a partisan prop. Bill Clinton testifies Friday, so we’ll see what that adds. But Hillary? She walked in, shut it down, and walked out.

Now, let’s talk about ICE, because this is getting genuinely dangerous. ICE entered a Columbia University dorm to arrest a student — and the way they got in is the part that should make your skin crawl. They reportedly used a phony “missing persons” bulletin for a five-year-old child, fake badges, and posed as New York City cops to talk their way past security. That’s not “immigration enforcement.” That’s police-state behavior. And it’s also how you get people hurt, because if the government is normalizing agents lying about who they are, faking credentials, and barging into places under false pretenses, you are training the public to distrust any legitimate emergency response too. This is what authoritarianism looks like in practice: it’s sloppy, it’s cruel, and it dares you to stop it.

And the cruelty isn’t abstract. There was this horrifying story out of Buffalo: immigration officials picked up a blind Rohingya refugee, then realized they had no legal basis to deport him — so they dumped him miles from home, late at night, in freezing weather, outside a closed Tim Hortons. Then he died. A blind man. With a walking stick. They later tweeted they left him in a “warm safe location.” Video says otherwise — the Tim Hortons was closed. They left him in the parking lot, then lied about it. This administration lies as easily as it breathes, and the lies aren’t cosmetic — they’re lying about being responsible for the deaths of innocent people.

Then there’s Kash Patel and the FBI. Between 7 and 10 FBI agents who worked on Trump’s classified documents just got fired. You remember that case: Trump stole classified documents and then obstructed justice to try to stop the investigation. And now the people who investigated it are being purged — allegedly because Patel wants to impress Trump… and possibly because Trump is furious at Patel for his own antics. Including, yes, the Learjet joyride: Patel used an FBI jet to fly to the Olympics to watch a hockey final, running up an enormous taxpayer tab, then getting visibly trashed with players on camera like a frat boy who accidentally got handed federal power. So the solution is: Fire agents who did their jobs. Very normal. Very “rule of law.”

Foreign policy isn’t looking any saner. The Iran news is jaw-dropping: Some senior officials are worried the American public won’t support a full-on war with Iran — so the “idea” floating around is to have Israel attack Iran first, provoke retaliation, and basically engineer a scenario where US troops get killed to force public opinion to support war. Let that sink in. If that’s even being discussed, it’s beyond reckless. It’s monstrous.

And because nothing is too stupid to exist alongside the monstrous: Kristi Noem’s blanket saga. She reportedly was furious that when her plane recently got switched, her blankie didn’t make it onto the new aircraft, so the pilot gets fired mid-flight — with Corey Lewandowski reportedly storming into the cockpit during takeoff to do it. The Daily Mail now claims that it may not have been a blanket at all, but a private bag — and nobody’s saying what was in it. Add in the reports about Noem and Lewandowski’s “relationship” — they’re both married to other people — and the Atlantic noting she was dropped from VP consideration after the dog-shooting story, but it’s actually why Trump hired her at Homeland Security, and you start to see the theme: unserious people, cruelty as a personality trait, and power as a toy.

A quick pivot to the Wall Street Journal’s data on Americans moving abroad. More Americans are pursuing dual citizenship. Renunciations of US citizenship are backlogged. And Gallup found something bleak: A huge chunk of American women, especially younger women, say they’d permanently move overseas if they could — a proportion that rivals or even exceeds the number in parts of sub-Saharan Africa who say they’d leave if they could. That’s… not a “vibes” problem. That’s a country telling you, in polling, it no longer feels livable.

And to cap it off: Hungary. Viktor Orbán is facing an election in about six weeks, and polling suggests he’s in real trouble — his party is down big. So what does a wannabe dictator at the prospect of losing a democratic election? He starts manufacturing a crisis. Orbán is now putting troops on the Ukrainian border. Talking of a Ukrainian invasion. The opposition fear is obvious: create an “emergency,” justify cracking down, canceling elections, banning parties — the classic autocrat playbook.

That’s the through-line today: power consolidating, institutions being bent, lies being weaponized, and cruelty being normalized. None of this gets better by ignoring it. It gets better by dragging it into the light and refusing to treat it as normal. Make sure to join me for my live show tonight at 6pm ET, and tomorrow’s special show for paid subscribers at 11am ET.

Have a great weekend. JOHN

Tonight’s show is a tour of what “institutional rot” looks like in real time: the Epstein political food fight spreading upward into the Clintons and elite institutions, federal law enforcement getting bent into a loyalty tool, and immigration enforcement behaving like it’s above the law — with human beings as collateral damage. Layer in the White House’s reported appetite for election power-grabs and a potential Iran war being gamed for domestic politics, and you’ve got a pretty clear through-line: a government acting less like a democracy with rules, and more like a faction with enforcement powers.We’ll also zoom out to the social indicators people usually ignore until it’s too late: Americans leaving the country in historically notable numbers, citizenship renunciations piling up, and international students turning away from the US. And overseas, Hungary looks like it’s entering the classic “authoritarian panic phase” — border theatrics, talk of crackdowns, and a leader staring at the prospect of losing.On tonight’s show we discuss:* 2:08 — Epstein fallout: Hillary Clinton’s closed-door deposition, her denial of knowledge/contacts, and why she says Trump should testify (WSJ)* 14:52 — ICE at Columbia: agents allegedly entered a Columbia University dorm under false pretenses and detained a student* 19:18 — Buffalo tragedy: blind Rohingya refugee detained, then released far from home, dies trying to get back* 20:46 — Elections: report on activists urging Trump to declare a national emergency to take over elections (ban mail-in ballots, mass re-registration, federal “poll patrols”) (WP)* 24:32 — Kash Patel leak: outrage over the leaked (marked unclassified) schedule / “criminal act” freakout* 25:54 — FBI purge: at least 10 agents tied to the Trump classified-documents case reportedly fired* 27:11 — SOTU optics: who got honored (and who didn’t) — and the women’s sports/hockey gripe* 29:52 — More Epstein fallout: prominent resignations/step-downs over ties (Summers / WEF / Kerrey)* 30:11 — Iran: reporting on war politics and the idea of Israel striking first to force US entry* 31:23 — Kristi Noem “blanket” saga: Daily Mail reporting, the “bag” theory, and cockpit/Lewandowski drama* 34:21 — The Atlantic on Noem: why Trump dropped her from VP chatter (dog story) but hired her anyway* 35:44 — Americans leaving for Europe: WSJ on the expat surge, renunciations, passports, and what it says about America* 40:25 — Hungary: Orbán, Ukraine-border posture, and fears of election crackdownsAfter-show / bonus:

* 56:10 — Reese’s peanut butter cups: the “Europe discovers peanut butter” story time* 1:03:24 — Q&A: easiest foreign language to learn (Spanish vs French vs German, etc.)* 1:29:39 — Language tangent: Spanish “tengo calor” vs “estoy caliente,” plus the Greek “malako/malaka” confusion.

Same with inflation. Trump claimed he inherited record inflation and “tamed” it. Actually, he inherited roughly 3% inflation from Biden. and it hovered around that level for most of the year, only dropping last month to about 2.4%. Again, he lied.

Then there’s Iran—the lie that keeps on lying. Trump, oddly, repeated the “we obliterated Iran’s nuclear program” line. Thus, the obvious question: If it was “obliterated” and “never coming back,” why are we still preparing to attack again only months later? Trump also claimed last June that we had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, and it was never coming back. But now he says it has. Just lie after lie after lie. And this time, it’s going to cost us a lot of money and, likely, American lives.

Even the SOTU viewership tells you something: The speech drew about 28 million viewers, down from the 36–47 million range of previous Trump SOTUs. That’s not a small dip. That’s people tuning out. Because they’re exhausted, bored, or both. Trump’s act is repetitive. Even his supporters have only so many hours in the day to watch him recite the same self-mythology.

And the lies weren’t just macro. He bragged that he “lifted” 2.4 million Americans off food stamps. No, he cut them off, and called it a hunger graduation ceremony.

He also floated this shiny idea about expanding access to government-style retirement accounts. Except, Joe Biden already did this.

Then there was the optics carnival. Trump handed out awards—and, of course, the living recipients were all men. The Olympics men’s hockey goalie, for example, got a medal, and, I mean, congrats on the gold, but the Presidential Medal of Freedom for being a goalie? Not to mention, the women’s hockey team got the gold too — no medal of freedom for them? Oh that’s right, they’re girls. The only woman Trump awarded that night got it posthumously—she had to be dead to qualify. The men just had to show up.

Then there’s the Epstein story. In today’s video, I talk about reporting—originally flagged by Roger Sollenberger, then later confirmed by NPR and the The New York Times— that there’s an allegation from a woman interviewed multiple times by the FBI describing a horrific alleged encounter involving Trump when she was between the ages of 13 and 15. One interview surfaced, the others—and dozens of supporting documents—appear to be missing. Whether that ends in prosecutions or not, the larger scandal is the same: You don’t get to selectively comply with legal disclosure requirements and call it transparency.

I also talk about a WIRED report about a “Johnny MAGA” Twitter account—an allegedly pro-Trump influencer operation that isn’t some organic patriot but is instead a White House employee running propaganda while pretending to be an outsider—and you see the pattern. It’s not persuasion. It’s manufacturing consent.

Meanwhile, there’s the consequences of politicizing government: a federal gun case in Minnesota got dismissed with prejudice because prosecutors can’t meet deadlines. A defendant with a serious record walks—not because the system found him innocent, but because the system is understaffed and breaking. Why? All the US attorney quit when Trump politicized the Dept of Justice, ordering them to prosecute his political enemies.

And then we end with the public health clown show: Trump’s surgeon general nominee, Casey Means, won’t straightforwardly endorse the measles vaccine—hiding behind the “talk to your doctor” dodge. Fine sentiment in the abstract, absurd in the job interview for the nation’s top health communicator.

Oh—and yes, Trump’s hand! More makeup. More cover-up. More questions. If Biden had that exact visual, the right — hell, all the media — would be running 24/7 breaking news chyrons. With Trump, it’s silence and concealer.

That’s the morning in America: a fact-checkable speech full of spin, a document trail that keeps vanishing, and institutions strained to the point where even routine justice starts failing. Not normal. Not fine. And definitely not something we should get used to.

Here’s what I talk about on tonight’s live show:

* 01:56 — SOTU recap: long, economy-heavy, packed with lies

* 10:02 — CNN’s Daniel Dale fact-check: still lots of lying; economy was the biggest category

* 10:49 — Navigator Research dial test: support dipped on “winning,” prices dropping, and tariffs

* 08:19 — “Economy is roaring” claim vs “two point two percent” growth claim

* 08:50 — Inflation claim: “record inflation” vs “three percent” when he took office

* 13:04 — “$18 trillion” investment claim

* 13:41 — Gas prices claim

* 14:18 — Social Security: “no tax for seniors” claim vs reality

* 15:55 — Iran: “obliterated” nuclear program / “Operation Midnight Hammer”

* 18:08 — Immigration: Somali immigrants; victims’ families highlighted

* 18:44 — Food stamps: “lifted 2.4 million off” claim vs cuts

* 19:19 — Democrats’ response: Gov. Abigail Spanberger

* 20:06 — Dems skipping the speech (about 56)

* 20:22 — Rep. Al Green protest sign: “Black people aren’t apes.”

* 21:10 — Middle East buildup / Iran negotiations: brief mention, no detailed case

* 22:49 — Retirement savings accounts / $1,000 match pitch

* 23:35 — JD Vance “war on fraud” claim vs deficit reality

* 25:12 — Wash Post: medals/honors segment

* 30:57 — Epstein/NYT: FBI interview memos missing from public release

* 40:27 — WSJ: Tulsi Gabbard / executive privilege over classified intel

* 41:28 — WIRED: “Johnny MAGA” tied to White House staffer Garrett Wade

* 43:49 — KARE11: federal judge dismisses gun case after speedy-trial failure

* 46:18 — Larry Summers leaving Harvard amid Epstein-related revelations

* 47:54 — WSJ: Dr. Casey Means (surgeon general nominee) / MAHA vaccines

After the show (post-stream):

* 49:59 — Post-show Q&A begins

* 54:46 — Housekeeping: pinned comment / like & follow

* 54:54 — Dog update: Sasha’s limp improving; meds/bloodwork update

* 01:00:02 — Toll “fast pass” / listener chat

* 01:00:16 — YouTube comments not showing (tech glitch)

* 01:00:28 — Goat filter / on-screen effects chatter

* 01:05:00 — Four shot dead on a US-registered speedboat in Cuban waters; CIA speculation

* 01:10:45 — Belgium travel talk

* 01:11:23 — Belgium food: waffles

* 01:20:03 — Food tangent: crepes (and related food talk)

* 01:23:54 — Wrap-up

I started with Trump’s State of the Union, which I hate on principle, even when it’s “my team” giving it. It’s always a weird North Korean pageant, and Trump’s was no exception—except it was longer, louder, and somehow even more empty. Two hours of chest-thumping, victory laps, and that familiar Trump move: insisting the problem you’re living through isn’t real. Inflation is still the issue voters care about. And Trump’s answer is basically, “Everything’s fine, you’re just not seeing it correctly.” Joe Biden tried that. Joe Biden is not president anymore. That should be a clue.

And then there’s immigration—Trump’s supposed signature issue, the one he thinks is pure political gold. But it’s turning toxic in real time, because the enforcement isn’t staying in the neat little box people were promised. When you’ve got ICE agents roughing people up, targeting families, and the stories start landing that American citizens are getting caught up in this machinery—manhandled, abused, even killed—suddenly “the worst of the worst” slogan starts sounding like what it always was: marketing.

That connects to the political picture that’s starting to take shape: Trump’s approval is slipping even more, independents are bailing, and Republicans are suddenly having conversations they were not having a few weeks ago—like “are we about to lose the House?” and even, longshot, “could the Senate be in play?” It’s early, but the direction matters. If your governing philosophy is “act like the country is your personal expense account” — talking about you, Kash and Kristi! — eventually the customers cancel the subscription.

Then we hit the story that refuses to go away: Epstein. The New York Times has now amplified reporting that tracks with what NPR and Roger Sollenberger have been digging into—this question of what the government has, what it’s sitting on, and why pieces of this keep disappearing into a black hole. The key point: the allegation NPR & Roger reported on does not appear to be the “Katie Johnson” case people keep attaching to it. This seems to be a different woman—someone who says Epstein brought her to Trump in the early 1980s, roughly 1983 to 1985. And Trump, allegedly, tried to force her, as a 13 to 15 year old girl, to perform a sex act on him. Now, none of this is a conviction. It’s an allegation. But here’s what I said on the show and I’ll say it again: When institutions start acting like they’re trying to hide accusations rather than transparently debunk them, it makes the whole thing look worse. If it’s false, say it and disclose it. If it’s true, we’ve got a different problem—one that involves power, protection, and the kind of elite impunity that makes people lose faith in the system.

And that Epstein cloud now intersects with something straight-up surreal: the Mar-a-Lago shooter story. The guy who showed up this weekend with a gun and got killed wasn’t some left-wing villain out of central casting. By the reporting we have, he was a Christian Trump supporter, a hardcore MAGA type—furious about Epstein and what he believed was a cover-up. That’s what it looks like when a movement is built on conspiracies and betrayal narratives: eventually, the betrayal gets pointed inward.

From there we zoomed out to the broader global mess. Yesterday marked four years since Russia invaded Ukraine—supposedly a three-day operation that’s now a four-year grind. And it’s not just a battlefield story; it’s an entire country being turned into a war machine. The New York Times laid out numbers that should make your jaw drop: an enormous chunk of Russia’s federal budget now goes to military and security, plus a growing slice to interest payments as Putin borrows to fund the war. Russia’s National Wealth Fund—the rainy-day stash built on oil and gas—is being burned down fast; liquid reserves are way down from prewar levels. That’s the hidden cost of this conflict: the war doesn’t just destroy cities and lives, it eats the future. It corrodes investment, scares off capital, drives inflation, and deepens Russia’s demographic crisis. Even if Putin could “win” on a map, he’s turning his country into a poorer, older, more isolated state for decades.

Then came Iran—because apparently we can’t do one catastrophe at a time. The Financial Times reporting is…not comforting. Trump’s rationale for striking Iran has been a revolving door: first it’s nukes (even though he’s claimed he already “obliterated” the program), then it’s proxies, then it’s missiles, then it’s “help is on the way” to protesters. When your reasons for war change every week, that’s not strategy—that’s impulse. And the operational reality matters too: Israeli intelligence, per FT, believes even with the USS Gerald R. Ford arriving, the US can sustain only a short intense assault—four or five days—or about a week at lower intensity. Translation: if you start this, you’d better have a plan for what comes after Day Five.

And finally, one of the strangest—and most revealing—stories: the Pentagon’s fight with Anthropic, the company behind Claude, which is used in sensitive defense and intelligence contexts. The reporting suggests the conflict is about guardrails: Anthropic doesn’t want its AI used for mass surveillance of Americans or for autonomous weapons that can fire without a human in the loop. And the response from Hegseth’s Pentagon world is basically: do it anyway, or we’ll crush you, replace you, or compel it. That’s the whole theme of the morning in one story: power demanding fewer limits, less accountability, and more tools to watch and control people—while insisting you’re the crazy one for noticing.

So that’s the show: a State of the Union that’s really a State of Denial, an Epstein scandal that keeps expanding, a war in Ukraine that’s hollowing out Russia, a potential war with Iran being sold with a “merry-go-round” of excuses, and a US government increasingly comfortable threatening private companies to get the surveillance and weapons capabilities it wants. If you’re feeling like everything is getting more extreme, you’re not imagining it.

Here’s the main-topic chapter list, with timestamps, and with a few additional end-of-show topics:

* Opening / tech issues / getting live on all platforms — 00:00:02

* Ukraine: 4-year anniversary — 00:03:27

* Trump State of the Union tonight — 00:11:27

* Reuters/Ipsos poll: Trump “more erratic with age” — 00:16:10

* Joe Rogan + statins misinformation — 00:16:27

* Epstein files: DOJ withholding/removing material (NPR/Roger Sollenberger reporting) — 00:21:01

* Mar-a-Lago shooter — 00:27:50

* Iran: Rubio/CIA briefing + strike talk — 00:30:33

* ICE facility in New Hampshire canceled after protests — 00:39:32

* Greenland: Trump claim vs Pentagon/WSJ reporting — 00:35:33

* Hegseth vs Anthropic/Claude + Pentagon AI dispute — 00:43:23

* Banks checking citizenship / “show papers” idea — 00:47:05

* MAGA deportation story (NJ.com) — 00:49:52

* DJI robovac hack / camera access risk — 00:57:03

* Ukraine wrap: Canada aid / peace-deal reporting — 01:01:36

Additional end-of-show topics:

* Dog health update / mobility — 01:04:50

* State of the Union runtime chatter — 01:05:14

* White House blaming Biden for the economy (“Trump’s economy” framing) — 01:06:34

* Stock market talk: US vs rest-of-world performance under Trump — 01:13:14

* Personal finance Q&A: index funds vs individual stocks — 01:19:05

* Bogleheads-style investing resource + expat taxes / moving to Europe angle — 01:23:30

The story that really crystallized it was the NPR reporting on missing material in a public database that was legally supposed to be complete — including horrific allegations connected to Trump and Epstein.

Per NPR:

The woman who directly named Trump in her abuse allegation claimed that around 1983, when she was around 13 years old, Epstein introduced her to Trump "who subsequently forced her head down to his exposed penis which she subsequently bit. In response, Trump punched her in the head and kicked her out."

….

The FBI interviewed this Trump and Epstein accuser four times. That is according to an FBI “Serial Report” and a list of Non-Testifying Witness Material in the Maxwell case that were also released under the Epstein Files Transparency Act.

Only the first interview, conducted July 24, 2019, is in the public database. That interview does not mention Trump.

How is this man still president?

Which brings me to the second thread you can’t ignore: the deliberate flirtation with European far-right politics — and doing it like it’s some clever geopolitical chess move instead of playing with fire.

You can hear the contempt for norms in how these appointments and alignments are handled. A convicted criminal gets pardoned and then handed a glamorous diplomatic post — ambassador to France — because, why not? The job becomes a reward. A trophy. Something you toss to friends and donors and family ecosystems, like government service is a loyalty program.

And then, on top of that, you’ve got the US government cozying up to far-right activists in Europe — the kind of “far right” that isn’t just “tough on immigration,” but veers into explicitly fascist territory. And they do it wrapped in the kind of paranoid propaganda that always shows up right before things go sideways: “left-wing conspiracies,” “they’re killing everyone,” “the world is out to get us,” so obviously the answer is to embrace the extremists because at least they hate the same enemies.

That’s not strategy. That’s ideology. And it’s toxic.

And then you widen the lens to national security — because while all of this moral and institutional decay is happening, we’re also drifting toward potentially catastrophic decisions abroad.

The Iran segment was the warning flare. Multiple outlets confirming that America’s top uniformed general is raising concerns about a potential attack — and the concerns are blunt: the US has amassed forces, yes, but there are real questions about munitions, readiness, allied buy-in, and what happens when you start something you can’t neatly finish. That is the adult conversation that should be happening out loud.

And when the allies aren’t on board — the US is carrying the load alone or close to it — that doesn’t just affect “winning.” It affects casualties. It affects whether Americans are put in avoidable danger because somebody wanted a headline or a legacy moment.

Which is why the political numbers I read out, in the video above, matter. People sometimes hear “approval rating” and tune out. But net approval is the real tell — approval minus disapproval — and if you’re looking at that kind of collapse, that’s not a normal dip. That’s a signal that the public is seeing something fundamentally unstable.

And here’s what makes it darker: when leaders are losing public support, there are two paths. You correct course — or you double down on narrative control. You crank up the propaganda. You lean into fear. You pick scapegoats. You start treating institutions like shields and clubs instead of guardrails.

That’s why the first story and the polling story connect. If you can hide records, scrub names, and manipulate what people can see — and if you can do it while staying politically alive — then accountability becomes optional. (Hell, Fox has built an entire network, and the GOP a political party, on this.) The truth becomes negotiable. And we slide into a world where “what happened” is less important than “what we can get away with.”

And looming over it all is the reminder that the world doesn’t pause while we play these games. Ukraine is now four years into what was supposed to be a “three-day” conquest by Russia. The suffering is real. The stakes are real. And the US is making choices — about arms, about posture, about priorities — at the exact moment our own political culture is getting more reckless and unserious.

So that’s the through-line of the morning show: impunity at home breeds chaos abroad. When institutions are hollowed out and truth is treated like a PR product, you don’t just get corruption. You get risk. You get escalation. You get leaders who think the rules are for other people — Kash Patel’s $75,000 bender at the Olympics comes to mind — and then they start believing the laws of physics are for other countries, too.

And history has a pretty consistent lesson there: eventually, reality kicks in, and there’s always a price.

Here are today’s topics:

* 4-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — 00:05:39.874

* Iran (Wash Post / JCS Chair Gen. Dan Caine warning re munitions + allies) — 00:06:17.071

* US force posture: 40–50% of deployable US airpower in Middle East — 00:09:39.509

* Kash Patel’s $75K jet joyride / hypocrisy — 00:10:52.744

* Iran nukes: Trump “obliterated” vs Witkoff “a week away” — 00:10:18.138

* Peter Mandelson reportedly arrested/questioned — 00:22:36.263

* Polling (CNN / Harry Enten: net approval drop, independents) — 00:27:53.832

* Greenland: Denmark evacuates US crew member; “hospital ship” claim — 00:33:36.463

* Politico: DHS surveillance on Maine activists / watchlist threats — 00:35:54.521

* 404 Media: ICE apps enabling warrantless phone tracking + follow targets — 00:37:01.992

* Ex-ICE instructor whistleblower (rushed crackdown, unlawful enforcement risk) — 00:37:16.271

* France fallout: US ambassador reportedly frozen out — 00:37:48.204

* Judge Cannon blocks release of Jack Smith report — 00:42:01.072

* Tom Nichols: GOP has a Nazi problem — 00:42:24.668

* NYT: Russia return to global sports / Paralympics + Trump-world support — 00:47:25.456

* Ukraine signals possible talks Feb. 26–27; Kremlin hasn’t confirmed — 00:47:51.449

* Russian oil to Slovakia/Hungary cut off since Jan. 27 (pipeline hit/repairs) — 00:47:56.172

* Hungary blocks EU €90B loan until Druzhba resumes — begins 00:48:08.824 and “blocking aid” is explicit at 00:49:27.525.

* Slovak PM Robert Fico: no emergency electricity until Druzhba resumes — Not stated verbatim in the VTT. 00:48:52.858

* Ukrainian drones hit refinery ~1,000 km inside Russia; major fire — 00:49:56.186

* Ukraine claims 400 sq km + 8 settlements liberated since Jan (Syrskyi) — 00:50:03.373

* NYT (Hanna Notte): Trump hasn’t delivered real normalization wins; retreats when pushed — 00:50:21.148

* RUSI (Jack Watling): Russia fight into 2027; talks to split alliance; Europe fears bad terms — 00:51:32.994

This morning’s show basically boils down to one theme: The people running the country are acting like the country is a corporate expense account, and we’re all supposed to pretend it’s normal. It’s not normal. It’s embarrassing. And it’s expensive.

Start with Kash Patel. The FBI director. The guy who’s supposed to embody “serious federal law enforcement professional,” not “frat boy who found the VIP wristbands.” He hopped on the private FBI jet and flies to the Olympics. Not eight months before the Olympics to do actual security work — like Robert Mueller did back in the day when Athens was hosting. No, Patel goes at the end, after most of it’s already done, and then we see him — on camera — getting drunk with the men’s hockey team after the match. Like seriously drinking. Frat boy style. And the best part is the lying. His people insisted it was “business meetings,” not a fun trip. Sure. And I’m a ballerina. But don’t take my word for it, check out my video, we got the goods.

We know the jet alone was about $75,000. That’s just the plane. Add staff. Add security. Add hotels. Add meals. You’re easily talking north of $100,000 — maybe a lot more — so the FBI director can go “check on security” while watching hockey, and partying like he’s a donor at Mar-a-Lago. And then there’s the reimbursement scam: he’s “supposed to reimburse” for the personal part of his travel, but only up to the cost of a commercial ticket. So what, a couple grand? Taxpayers eat the rest so he can live like a Russian oligarch, or a Trump.

And here’s the part that really tells you everything you need to know about these people: Patel has complained about this exact thing when it was somebody else. He went after Chris Wray for using government aircraft, saying basically, why should we be funding fancy jets for the FBI director? “Maybe we ground that plane,” etc. Right. When it’s someone else, it’s a scandal. When it’s him, it’s “national security,” plus a kegger and a front-row seat.

Then we get to the Trump phone call moment — because of course there’s a Trump phone call moment. Trump’s talking about bringing the men’s team to the State of the Union, and when the women come up — they won the gold too — he does the whole I-guess-we-have-to-bring-the-girls-too routine. That’s who he is. It’s not even subtle.

Which brings us to Kristi Noem, who apparently wants her own Learjet with a big, beautiful queen-size bed in it. Because nothing screams “public servant” like ordering a flying bedroom on the taxpayer’s dime. And the cherry on top: the rumors that she and Corey Lewandowski — both married, not to each other — have been having an affair for years. Now, I’m not in their bedroom, I don’t know what’s true — though a reporter asked Trump about it a week or so again. But I do know this: if you’re a cabinet-level official swimming in public scandal rumors, maybe you don’t announce you’re shopping for a jet that comes with a mattress. Read the room.

Now let’s talk about something that actually makes me smile for once: the polling. CNN’s Harry Enten lays it out, and the headline is brutal for Trump. His net approval going into the State of the Union is sitting around negative twenty-seven. That’s not “a little soft.” That’s “weak, weak, weak,” to borrow Tony Blair’s old phrasing, says Enten. Even more important: independents. Trump has always needed them because the bases are baked in — Republicans will vote for Trump, Democrats won’t. The swing voters matter. And on independents, Trump’s underwater by something like forty-seven points. Forty-seven. That’s not a wobble. That’s a collapse. And going into a fall election year? Fugetaboutit. Democrats should be paying attention, organizing, and pouncing — because these numbers say Trump is bleeding in the exact place you can’t bleed politically and survive.

And why is he bleeding? Because people can’t afford things. Which takes us to tariffs. Even Fox News is airing segments acknowledging what anyone with a functioning brain already knows: tariffs raise prices, and prices are too high. Period. There was talk about a Federal Reserve study saying ninety percent of tariffs get passed along to consumers as higher prices. Trump adviser Kevin Hassett can huff and puff and call it “faulty” all he likes, but you can’t magic away price increases by yelling at data. Fox is literally saying we’ve got goods inflation, and tariffs are part of it. When Fox News is telling viewers Trump’s policies are making their lives more expensive, that’s not just bad news — that’s a delicious disaster.

Now, the darkest story of the morning: the UK grandmother detained by US border police for six weeks like a common criminal. Karen Newton, British citizen, traveling the US with her retired husband, doing the “trip of a lifetime,” sees the Grand Canyon, drives toward Canada. At the Canadian border, they’re told they don’t have the right paperwork to bring the rental car across. Canada turns them back — but once you’re on the Canadian side, you’ve already exited the US, so they have to re-enter America.

Here’s where the nightmare starts. The husband’s visa had expired. Hers hadn’t. She’s legal. She’s thinking: okay, they’ll deal with him, and I’m fine. Wrong. They “detain” them both — because “arrest” would mean giving them actual civil rights, lawyers, due process — and she gets swept up too. Why? Because, they tell her, she packed his luggage, so she’s “an accomplice.” I’m not kidding. That’s the alleged logic. They hold them for six weeks. Shackles. Prison transfers. Sleeping on the floor. Not being told what “crime” she committed. It’s grotesque.

And the British government? Useless. She couldn’t even reach the embassy for weeks, and when she finally did, the response was basically, “Yeah, not sure we can do anything.” Meanwhile, the Americans reportedly told the Brits that a government shutdown meant they couldn’t release people — which, if true, is insane, and if false, is worse.

And then the final gut-punch: Iran. The White House put out a statement in June 2025 bragging that Iran’s nuclear facilities had been “obliterated” by Trump’s bombing campaign, and that anyone suggesting otherwise was “fake news.” Okay. So why are we now hearing we’re days away from bombing Iran again because they’re supposedly one week away from getting nuclear capability? Either Trump lied then, or he’s lying now, or — my personal favorite — lying both times. And meanwhile, we’re moving massive military resources into the region, and Congress is sleepwalking. Republicans control Congress. If this spirals into another forever war costing trillions of dollars, that’s on them.

So yeah. Patel is partying on the taxpayer’s expense. Noem wants the airborne bedroom. Trump is hemorrhaging with independents. Tariffs are making prices worse. ICE is turning the US into a country where even a British grandma can get disappeared like an Argentine dissident. And now we’re rattling sabers toward yet another Middle East catastrophe after telling everyone the last one “obliterated” the problem.

This isn’t “politics as usual.” It’s rot — and it only keeps spreading if we keep letting them tell us it’s normal.

That’s what tariffs are. They are taxes. Not taxes on foreigners. Not taxes on China. Taxes on you.

For years, Trump has lied about this, claiming tariffs would punish other countries and enrich America. In reality, study after study — including Federal Reserve research — showed that roughly 90 to 95 percent of tariff costs were passed directly on to American consumers in the form of higher prices. Higher grocery bills. Higher prices for electronics. Higher costs across the board. Trump wasn’t making China pay. He was making you pay.

And he did it by abusing emergency powers he never should have had.

Under US law, Congress controls tariffs. The president can only impose tariffs unilaterally in a genuine national emergency — war, national security threats, things like that. Trump simply declared whatever he wanted an “emergency.” Trade deficits? Emergency. Swiss lady was mean to me? Emergency. Brazil prosecuted my fascist buddy? Emergency. It was a transparent power grab designed to bypass Congress and give Trump unilateral control over a massive economic weapon.

The Supreme Court just said no.

What makes this ruling especially significant is the margin. Six to three. And critically, three Republican-appointed justices joined the Court’s Democratic appointees. This wasn’t a close call. It was a clear rebuke. Even conservative justices weren’t willing to accept Trump’s claim that he could invent emergencies to justify taxing Americans at will.

This decision strips Trump of one of his favorite tools for bullying allies, manipulating markets, and projecting power. He used tariffs as a blunt instrument — threatening countries, destabilizing trade relationships, and pretending he was protecting American workers while quietly raising costs on American families.

What happens next is still uncertain. The Court did not address whether Americans and companies who paid these illegal tariffs will get their money back. That question could trigger another round of legal battles. And knowing Trump, he will fight tooth and nail to avoid refunding money he never had the legal right to take in the first place. Also, it’s a given that Trump will continue to find other illegal ways to put tariffs on our imports. And we’ll take him to court again. But this means other countries, when negotiating with the US, will know that Trump doesn’t have as much leverage as he thinks he has going forward. And that’s huge.

The core reality is clear. The Supreme Court just reaffirmed a basic constitutional principle: the president is not a king. He does not have unlimited authority to tax Americans simply because he feels like it.

For once, the system worked.

That’s it for tonight. Make sure to check out my morning show, and my Saturday show for all of the paid subscribers (11am ET on Saturday). Thanks! JOHN

Donald Trump has ordered a nationwide ramp-up in the production of Roundup. Yes, that Roundup. The chemical herbicide linked in thousands of lawsuits to lymphoma. The same product that juries across the country have found caused cancer in ordinary Americans. The same product that has already resulted in multi-billion-dollar settlements. And now the President of the United States is pushing to expand its production and use.

This is not abstract. This is not theoretical. This is poison. And it’s being promoted by a government that is supposed to protect us.

What makes this even more grotesque is the hypocrisy. Trump’s own health secretary, RFK Jr., built part of his career suing over the dangers of Roundup. Now he’s part of an administration expanding its use. It tells you everything you need to know. Public health is no longer the priority. Loyalty to Trump is.

And the pattern repeats itself everywhere you look.

Trump just announced he’s giving $10 billion of taxpayer money to his own private organization, the so-called “Board of Peace.” Let’s be clear what this is. It’s not a government entity accountable to voters. It’s Trump’s personal geopolitical vanity project. He’s the chairman. He will remain chairman even after he leaves office. Governments can reportedly buy permanent membership for $1 billion. And now he’s funneling billions of our dollars into it.

This is not normal. This is the behavior of authoritarian regimes, where the leader creates parallel institutions that answer only to him.

Meanwhile, right here in Washington, Trump is plastering government buildings with giant propaganda-style posters—creepy, Orwellian displays that feel less like a democracy and more like a personality cult. It’s taxpayer money being used to glorify power. Not to serve the public.

And while all this is happening domestically, we are on the brink of something even more catastrophic internationally.

According to multiple reports, the United States may be days away from launching a massive war against Iran. Not a symbolic strike. Not a limited operation. A full-scale military campaign on the scale of Iraq in 2003 or the Gulf War in 1991. Potentially regime change.

Here’s the kicker: Trump claimed just months ago that Iran’s nuclear program had been “obliterated.” His word. Obliterated. Yet now his administration is demanding Iran dismantle nuclear capabilities he previously insisted no longer existed. Which is it? Either he lied then, or he’s lying now. Either way, the result could be war.

This is the danger of pathological dishonesty in leadership. Lies don’t just distort reality. They get people killed.

And while preparing for war abroad, Trump is consolidating power at home—especially over the media.

His administration reportedly intervened to block a potential deal involving CNN’s parent company and Netflix. Why? Because Trump prefers another buyer: Paramount, run by allies of his longtime friend Larry Ellison. The goal is obvious. Control the press. He already exerts influence over Fox News. He has allies controlling major newspapers. Now CNN may be next.

Democracy cannot function when political leaders manipulate media ownership to silence criticism.

The cruelty doesn’t stop there.

Trump has ordered federal officials to stop visiting disaster areas across the country—wildfires, hurricanes, emergencies. Not because they can’t. But because he wants to punish political opponents during a funding dispute. Disaster victims are being turned into hostages in a political game.

At the same time, his immigration policies continue to produce human tragedies. A two-month-old infant was detained in an ICE facility, became seriously ill with bronchitis, was hospitalized, and then—after being discharged—was dumped across the border with his mother. A baby. Fresh out of the hospital. Abandoned.

If that doesn’t shock your conscience, nothing will.

And now, in what may be one of the most quietly dangerous developments of all, Trump is piloting a program using artificial intelligence to deny Medicare claims. Let that sink in. AI will decide whether seniors get treatments. And the private companies running the AI get paid when they deny care. They profit from rejection.

That is not healthcare. That is automated cruelty driven by financial incentives.

Even Trump’s foreign policy rhetoric has taken a dark turn. His press secretary recently expressed sympathy not just for Ukrainians dying in Russia’s invasion—but for the Russian invaders themselves. This from an administration that should be defending democracy against authoritarian aggression.

There is a pattern here. Health policies that endanger Americans. Financial schemes that enrich insiders. Media manipulation. Propaganda. War brinkmanship. Punishment of civilians. Dehumanization of the vulnerable.

This is not governance in the traditional sense. It is power exercised without restraint, without accountability, and without regard for consequences.

The most dangerous aspect of all may be how quickly this is becoming normalized. Each individual story is shocking enough. Together, they paint a picture of a country drifting away from democratic norms into something far more dangerous.

And it’s happening in real time.

* 00:02:58 — Trump preparing for major war with Iran that could begin within days

* 00:19:11 — Trump moves to block Warner Bros.–Netflix merger and influence CNN ownership

* 00:22:34 — Trump officials briefed on election messaging strategy ahead of upcoming election

* 00:27:28 — Google searches surge for Rep. James Talarico after Trump allies target him

* 00:28:53 — White House pushes claims of non-citizen voting despite lack of evidence

* 00:30:34 — Trump restricts FEMA officials during DHS shutdown confrontation with Democrats

* 00:34:14 — Vatican refuses to participate in Trump’s proposed “Board of Peace” initiative

* 00:38:06 — FDA reverses course and agrees to review Moderna flu vaccine

* 00:38:59 — Two-month-old baby deported and abandoned at U.S.–Mexico border despite illness

* 00:39:35 — Trump administration uses AI systems to deny Medicare claims to seniors

* 00:43:05 — Radio Free Europe resumes broadcasting into China after shutdown

* 00:44:27 — White House defends Russia and claims sympathy for Russian war casualties

* 00:46:01 — Nigeria warns citizens Russia is deceiving Africans into fighting in Ukraine

* 00:46:37 — Kenya, Uganda, and South Africa report similar Russian military recruitment schemes

* 00:47:18 — New Getty image shows worsening swelling and discoloration on Trump’s hand

Viewer Q&A, Additional Commentary, and Political Discussion

* 00:47:51 — Transition to live viewer discussion and informal Q&A

* 00:49:45 — Discussion of ICE detention conditions and confiscation of children’s drawings

* 00:50:37 — Discussion of tariffs, Canada trade tensions, and economic impacts

* 01:04:46 — Discussion begins on Kamala Harris and potential Democratic nominee for 2028

What makes this moment different from previous flare-ups is the scale of what is being discussed. This is not about a limited strike, a symbolic bombing campaign, or a narrowly targeted military response. The planning being described points toward something much larger: a sustained military campaign designed to cripple the Iranian regime itself. This means not simply weakening Iran’s military infrastructure, but actively attempting to overthrow its government and reshape the country’s political leadership. That transforms the conflict from a tactical operation into a strategic war of regime change.

Regime change wars are fundamentally different from short-term military engagements. They require overwhelming force, long-term commitment, and a willingness to deal with the aftermath. Removing a government is only the beginning. The real challenge is what comes next: stabilizing the country, preventing civil collapse, and ensuring that something functional replaces what was destroyed. History has shown repeatedly that this phase is far more difficult than the initial invasion.

Iran presents even greater challenges than previous conflicts. It is geographically large, heavily populated, and militarily experienced. Its leadership has spent decades preparing for exactly this scenario. Iranian command structures are designed to survive bombing campaigns. Leadership can operate underground, in hardened facilities, and through decentralized networks. Even if major infrastructure were destroyed, the regime could continue functioning. This makes the idea of a quick, decisive victory highly unrealistic.

Beyond the battlefield itself, the regional and global consequences would be immediate. Iran sits beside the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most strategically important waterways on Earth. Roughly twenty percent of the world’s oil supply passes through that narrow corridor. Iran has already practiced shutting it down. If war breaks out, blocking or disrupting that passage would be one of Iran’s most powerful retaliatory options. The result would be an immediate shock to global energy markets. Oil prices would surge. Energy costs would spike. Inflation would rise. Economic disruption would spread far beyond the Middle East.

Another critical factor is the military buildup that is already underway. It’s being used as leverage to pressure Iran to agree to our terms, and give up its nuclear program. War, however, once initiated, takes on its own momentum. Military escalation can trigger retaliation, counter-retaliation, and widening conflict. Iran has regional allies and proxy forces capable of attacking U.S. interests across the Middle East. American military bases, naval vessels, and allied infrastructure would all become potential targets. What begins as a bilateral war could rapidly expand into a regional confrontation.

The United States must also confront the lessons of recent history. Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were expected to be relatively quick and decisive. Instead, they stretched on for decades and cost trillions of dollars. Removing a regime proved easier than stabilizing the country afterward. Military victory did not automatically translate into political success. The same risks exist here, but on an even larger scale.

Iran is not Iraq. It has had more time to prepare. Its geography favors defense. Its leadership understands American military doctrine. Any attempt to occupy or control the country would face enormous logistical and political obstacles. Even if the initial invasion succeeded, maintaining control would be extraordinarily difficult.

This is why the decision to go to war must be based on clear objectives and realistic expectations. War cannot be entered impulsively or emotionally. It must have defined goals, achievable outcomes, and a clear plan for what happens afterward. Without that clarity, military action risks creating chaos rather than stability.

At this moment, the trajectory is uncertain but unmistakably dangerous. Military preparations are real. Diplomatic demands are escalating. Strategic positioning is underway. The possibility of war is no longer abstract. It is a present and active risk.

Check out my video for more analysis on this, and be sure to come back at 6pm ET tonight for my daily live news show for all my Substack subscribers.

Thanks, JOHN

Major breaking news and political analysis covering Iran war tensions, Trump Epstein allegations, ICE immigration controversies, Ukraine war developments, inflation, and global conflict.In this livestream, I cover escalating geopolitical tensions, major Trump-related Epstein developments, immigration enforcement controversies, and the latest battlefield and negotiation realities in the Russia-Ukraine war.Chapters:00:04:00 – U.S. and Iran tensions escalate toward possible war00:16:38 – Trump’s FCC targets CBS over Texas State Rep. James Talarico's Colbert appearance00:23:09 – Trump’s outrageous reaction following Jesse Jackson’s death00:27:42 – Hillary Clinton accuses Trump of Epstein cover-up00:29:36 – New Epstein revelations involving Trump's staff00:36:05 – Rep. claims Epstein file review shows Trump never removed Epstein from Mar-a-Lago00:37:03 – DHS spokeswoman Tricia McLaughlin exits position amid controversy00:45:55 – Texas property owner refuses to sell or lease building to ICE00:47:06 – Two-month-old baby becomes severely ill at ICE detention facility00:52:30 – Wall Street Journal confirms inflation continues as companies raise prices00:53:01 – Russia’s invasion collapses into prolonged four-year military conflict00:53:22 – Trump attacks Ukraine and pressures peace negotiations00:54:25 – Russia’s military and economic position weakens significantly00:54:48 – Russia loses leverage as Ukraine war negotiations deteriorate00:55:24 – Ukraine regains territory and shifts battlefield momentumSubscribe for daily breaking political news, livestreams, and uncensored analysis.

Let’s start with Iran.

There is growing evidence, including analysis from credible open-source military intelligence observers, that Trump has moved significant military assets into position in the Middle East. When you look at the scale and type of deployments — aircraft, ships, logistical support — this isn’t routine positioning. This is preparation for an imminent invasion. Historically, when the US moves this much hardware into place, it’s because something is about to happen. Perhaps within days.

At the same time, Trump is engaged in negotiations with Iran — negotiations that are based on demands that contradict his own prior claims. Trump previously insisted that he had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program. That was his word. Obliterated. Gone. Never coming back. But now he’s demanding Iran dismantle that same nuclear program — which, apparently, exists after all. US defense intelligence assessments at the time said Trump’s strikes set the program back months, not years. In other words, Trump lied. And now he’s negotiating based on the reality he previously denied. (Trump also claimed, right after the strike, that Iran’s nuclear material was buried in rubble and never coming back. Now, he’s demanding Iran get rid of its nuclear material that he already told us Iran doesn’t even have! Yeah, he lied, again.)

Iran, for its part, is escalating tensions as well. They temporarily shut down the Strait of Hormuz for military maneuvers — a thinly veiled threat. Roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply flows through that narrow corridor. Any sustained disruption there would spike oil prices globally and destabilize markets. Iran is essentially signaling that if Trump attacks, they will retaliate economically — and potentially militarily.

This is how wars start. Not with a formal declaration, but with escalating threats, posturing, and miscalculations.

Now let’s turn to what may be the more dangerous development, because it’s happening here, inside the United States.

Trump is now openly pressuring media organizations in ways that have already resulted in censorship.Stephen Colbert recently recorded an interview with Texas state representative James Talarico, a Democratic candidate running for the US Senate. The interview happened. It was completed. But CBS refused to air it last night, after pressure from Trump’s FCC and legal threats against the network.

Let’s be clear about what this means.

A sitting president used government power to intimidate a television network into suppressing political speech. Not misinformation. Not incitement. Just political speech. Colbert himself explained that network lawyers explicitly instructed him not only to avoid airing the interview — but not even to mention that the interview had been blocked.

That is censorship. Period.

And the chilling effect is the point. Authoritarians don’t need to shut down every critic directly. They just need to create enough fear that institutions censor themselves. That’s exactly what’s happening now. CBS backed down. The interview only saw the light of day because Colbert redid it independently online.

This is happening alongside investigations and threats targeting other programs, including The View, simply for hosting political voices Trump doesn’t like. Not to mention, Trump’s earlier attacks on Jimmy Kimmel and others.

Meanwhile, Trump and his allies continue to lecture Europe about “free speech.” The hypocrisy is staggering.

And while all this unfolds, there are broader warning signs across the political landscape. Economic indicators are beginning to reflect the consequences of Trump’s policies. According to the Wall Street Journal, companies are raising prices again, in part due to Trump’s tariffs and economic instability. Consumers will feel this directly.

Trump is also continuing to side with Russia in negotiations involving Ukraine, further alienating US allies and raising serious questions about American foreign policy alignment.

And politically, something important is shifting. This is important. For months, conventional wisdom held that Democrats had a good shot at retaking the US House, but zero chance in the Senate. That assumption is now being challenged. Independent analysts, including Cook Political Report and CNN’s polling experts, are warning that the Senate might just be in play.

States once assumed safe for Republicans are becoming competitive. Working-class voters in key battleground states are showing signs of political movement. The political environment is volatile, and Trump’s own behavior appears to be driving some of that volatility.

None of this guarantees anything. Elections are unpredictable. But the fact that credible analysts are now openly discussing the possibility of Democrats taking both chambers of Congress should be a wake-up call.

Because what we’re witnessing isn’t normal political conflict. We’re witnessing a president escalating toward war abroad while simultaneously escalating pressure against dissent at home. We’re witnessing economic instability driven by political decisions. And we’re witnessing a political system entering one of the most unpredictable periods in modern American history.

The stakes couldn’t be higher.

Stay informed. Stay engaged. And don’t assume anything is inevitable.

Because it isn’t.

PS Make sure to join me tonight at 6pm ET for my live daily news update, thanks!

Join me Monday to Friday, 6pm ET for the latest news from Washington.

Buried inside a Politico analysis is a devastating reality for Trump and Republicans. Their aggressive redistricting effort in Texas—designed specifically to wipe out Democratic seats and secure Republican ones—may backfire completely. Republicans believed they could flip four Democratic seats and lock down two of their own. Instead, they could lose all six.

Why? Latino voters.

Trump’s attacks on immigrants and Latinos weren’t just morally repugnant—they may also have been politically catastrophic. Republicans assumed Latino voters were trending toward them permanently. That assumption now looks dangerously naïve. When you openly demonize communities, eventually they notice. Who knew? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This isn’t just about Texas. It’s about the limits of authoritarian political engineering. You can redraw lines, manipulate districts, and stack the deck—but you can’t force voters to love you.

And Trump’s overreach doesn’t stop there.

Kristi Noem, now running Homeland Security, released a deeply disturbing statement suggesting her agency has a role in ensuring “the right people vote” and “elect the right leaders.” That is not just inappropriate—it’s chilling. Government officials have no business ensuring voters elect “the right leaders.” That’s the language of authoritarian regimes, not democracies. And let’s be clear: Homeland Security has no authority over elections. None. Elections are run by states and localities. When federal law enforcement officials start talking about influencing who votes and what outcomes occur, the alarm bells should be deafening. This is exactly how democratic erosion happens—not all at once, but through normalization of rhetoric and gradual expansion of power.

Meanwhile, Trump’s reckless foreign policy is producing another unintended consequence: the collapse of America’s global economic dominance. The European Union and major Indo-Pacific nations—including Canada—are now exploring the formation of what could become the largest economic alliance in world history. Why? Because they no longer trust the United States as a stable trading partner.

Think about that. For nearly a century, America was the center of the global economic system. Now our closest allies are building an alternative system designed specifically to bypass us. Trump’s tariffs, threats, and hostility toward allies didn’t make America stronger. They made America unreliable. And isolated.

And the damage is already measurable. Canadian travel to the United States alone dropped so significantly that it cost the US economy $4.5 billion last year.

At the same time, Trump’s tax cuts are fueling a fiscal time bomb. The Congressional Budget Office now projects US national debt will explode to $64 trillion within a decade, driven largely by the revenue losses created by those very tax cuts.

Trump promised economic strength. Instead, he delivered weakness.

And while America’s global standing declines, the Republican Party itself continues its descent into extremism. Florida Republican Congressman Randy Fine recently posted a grotesque comment comparing Muslims to dogs. This is no longer fringe rhetoric—it’s increasingly mainstream within Republican politics. This is what happens when political movements abandon governing in favor of grievance and fear. They radicalize.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton offered a stark contrast in seriousness and strategic thinking. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, she argued that the West must help Ukraine inflict maximum pain on Russia. Her logic was straightforward: Russia negotiates only when it feels real pressure. And the data backs her up. Russia has already suffered catastrophic losses—hundreds of thousands dead and over a million wounded. Yet Vladimir Putin continues the war because he believes he can outlast Western resolve. Clinton’s message was clear: Weakness prolongs war. Strength ends it.

Even culturally, the contrast between political figures remains stark. Barack Obama’s recent appearance at the NBA All-Star Game drew a massive standing ovation. The crowd’s reaction wasn’t just about nostalgia—it reflected something deeper. Obama still represents competence, calm, and legitimacy. Trump represents chaos, fear and incompetence.

Finally, in lighter—but still revealing—news, Obama clarified recent comments about extraterrestrial life. While acknowledging the statistical likelihood that life exists elsewhere in the vast universe, he emphasized there is no evidence aliens have contacted Earth.

In a time dominated by conspiracy theories, authoritarian rhetoric, and political manipulation, simply acknowledging facts has become radical. And that’s where we are now. Trump’s attempt to manipulate elections may fail not because of institutional safeguards, but because voters themselves refuse to cooperate. His effort to intimidate allies has driven them into each other’s arms. His tax cuts have weakened America’s financial future. And his political movement has grown increasingly extreme.

Authoritarianism thrives on the illusion of inevitability—the idea that resistance is futile. But inevitability is a myth. Voters still decide elections. (So far.) Allies still choose their partners. Reality still asserts itself. And increasingly, reality is not on Trump’s side.

Make sure to join me tonight at 6pm ET for my live daily news round-up.

Trump Threatens Nationwide Voter ID, DHS Shutdown Looms, $38B ICE Expansion & Military Moves Toward Iran | Nightly NewsTonight’s show covers explosive developments on voting rights, immigration crackdowns, ICE expansion, military positioning near Iran, economic warning signs, Republican voting scandals, and new Russia-Ukraine peace talks.Here are the full story breakdowns:## ⏱️ TIMESTAMPS / CHAPTERS00:05:00 – Trump says he will impose nationwide voter ID for the fall election00:06:01 – New economic polls show Trump in trouble00:19:22 – DHS shutdown begins at midnight if no deal is reached00:21:21 – ICE plans $38 billion expansion into mass detention centers00:21:49 – Massive military movement into Europe & Middle East raises Iran strike concerns00:27:11 – ICE Director Todd Lyons says officers lied in January 4 shooting00:28:04 – Minneapolis mayor says immigration crackdown cost city $203 million00:28:36 – Moderna CEO says no new late-stage vaccine trials amid anti-vaccine pressure00:33:07 – Report: Kristi Noem fired pilot over blanket incident00:35:39 – Trump accused of punishing Colorado over refusal to pardon election felon00:36:45 – Trump visits military base, attacks Biden, promotes GOP Senate candidate00:38:32 – Financial Times: Trump quietly softening on tariffs amid inflation concerns00:40:51 – House Republicans caught illegally sharing voting cards00:42:21 – White House using former AID funds for Russell Vogt security00:43:04 – New poll: Americans prefer Bad Bunny or Trump?00:43:26 – Next round of Russia-Ukraine-U.S. peace talks set for Switzerland---If you value independent political news analysis without corporate spin:👍 Like the video💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments🔔 Subscribe and turn on notifications📤 Share to help grow independent media---#politics #trump #immigration #voterID #ICE #Ukraine #Iran #economy #DHS #congress #breakingnews

The Trump administration is bleeding public support at the exact moment it’s doubling down on some of its most extreme instincts.

Let’s start with Minnesota. Trump is reportedly ending the paramilitary occupation of that state, and it’s hard not to see the timing as political. The polling for Republicans is deteriorating across the board — on immigration, on the economy, and on the Epstein scandal. Immigration was supposed to be Trump’s strongest issue. Instead, his aggressive tactics and high-profile abuses have backfired, alienating independents and even some Republicans (especially GOP members of Congress) who once, at least publicly, gave him the benefit of the doubt.

CNN polling analyst Harry Enten put it bluntly: Republicans can no longer treat the Senate as a lock in the November midterm elections. That alone is a political earthquake. Sure, Republican control of the House was always in doubt, but the Senate?! Among independents, Trump’s economic approval has cratered. During his first term, he was ten points above water on the economy with independents. Now he’s roughly forty points underwater. You don’t survive midterms with numbers like that, especially when the economy is voters’ top concern.

The broader economic picture is just as grim for Trump and congressional Republicans. A majority of Americans now say Trump has made the economy worse, not better. Inflation and cost of living dominate public priorities, yet only a quarter of Americans believe Republicans are focused on those issues. That disconnect is lethal. Even among young men — a group that helped power Trump’s return — approval has collapsed. Recent polling shows a strong majority believe his presidency has hurt their finances, and his approval rating with them has fallen into the low thirties. That’s a dramatic reversal from the coalition that carried him back to office.

At the same time, the administration is making sweeping policy moves that put all of us at risk. Trump announced he is erasing the federal government’s scientific finding that climate change endangers human health and the environment. In practical terms, that guts the government’s legal authority to regulate pollution tied to climate change. It’s an extraordinary attempt to sidestep decades of environmental law, supported by both Democratic and Republican presidents.

The courts are pushing back on other fronts. A federal judge has again ordered the administration to facilitate the return of Venezuelan migrants who were deported to El Salvador in violation of a prior court order. The original deportations already triggered contempt charges. The renewed order sets up a direct test of whether the administration will comply with judicial authority or continue to defy it.

Layered over all of this is the continuing fallout from the Epstein scandal. In Europe, a number of officials are facing real consequences: just this week, a former Norwegian prime minister has been charged with corruption over his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, and multiple figures across European governments, from the UK to Slovakia, have lost their positions as investigations unfold. In the United States, by contrast, accountability has been conspicuously absent. When Attorney General Pam Bondi was pressed about ongoing investigations, her defensive response raised fresh doubts about whether the Justice Department is pursuing the matter with any urgency.

Public opinion is reflecting that unease. Several new polls show Americans rating Joe Biden as the better president compared to Trump — a striking result given Biden’s own lukewarm standing at the end of his term. Politico reports that Trump’s popularity is sliding even among key demographic groups that once anchored his support (see our discussion of young men above).

There are also growing questions about credibility and governance. Trump recently claimed he slashed prescription drug prices by five-hundred to seven-hundred percent — a mathematical impossibility. A one-hundred-percent price cut would make drugs free; anything beyond that would mean companies paying consumers to take medication. Exaggerations on that scale don’t just stretch the truth, a Trump staple, they suggest that Trump hasn’t lowered drug prices at all. After all, if truly did lower drug prices, he wouldn’t have to lie about it.

Finally, back to science policy. A promising new mRNA-based flu vaccine from Moderna has reportedly been sidelined by federal officials reluctant to engage with mRNA research because MAGA doesn’t like it. Billions of dollars in related research funding are being cut amid lingering political backlash to COVID-era vaccines among the right-wing. The result is a chilling effect on a technology that many researchers view as one of the most important medical breakthroughs in decades.

Taken together, these developments paint a picture of an administration under pressure — politically weakened, legally embattled, and increasingly at odds with public opinion on core issues. The coming months will test whether that pressure produces course correction — doubtful, though I expect some cosmetic changes — or deeper confrontation with the institutions designed to check executive power. And then, the big question: What prices do Republicans pay in November?

See some of you tonight and tomorrow, otherwise have a great weekend. JOHN

PS Here are Trump’s hands that I tried to show in the video, photos from Getty.

I begin with the explosive House hearing featuring Attorney General Pam Bondi, which quickly became dominated by questions about the Jeffrey Epstein investigation. Members of Congress from both parties pressed Bondi on a basic issue: How many alleged Epstein co-conspirators are being investigated or prosecuted, and what is being done for the victims. Instead of offering clear answers, Bondi responded with anger, repeatedly deflecting and attempting to shift the conversation to unrelated topics like the stock market. The exchange mattered less for the theatrics than for what it suggested about Bondi, and Trump. Lawmakers were asking about the status of investigations into the abuse of minors — a core responsibility of the Justice Department. The resistance they encountered fueled concerns that Bondi was covering up for someone — like we can’t guess who.

That concern deepened with revelations about how members of Congress are being allowed to review Epstein-related files. Lawmakers must travel to the Justice Department, cannot bring staff, and are limited to reviewing millions of pages on a handful of secure computers — an arrangement that makes thorough oversight nearly impossible. Even more troubling, evidence emerged that DOJ officials were tracking what individual members were viewing during their reviews. DOJ seems awfully vested in not letting anyone find out exactly who’s to blame for Epstein’s crimes.

From there I turned to new polling data via CNN’s Harry Enten that points to growing political trouble for Trump and congressional Republicans. On jobs and unemployment, Trump’s net approval has swung dramatically negative over the past year. The shift is especially stark among independent voters, the critical swing bloc in national elections, where confidence in Trump’s handling of the economy has fallen sharply. Broader public sentiment about the job market has darkened as well: More Americans now rate conditions as bad than good, and a rising share expect unemployment to increase in the coming months — levels of pessimism not seen since the Great Recession of 2009.

Economic performance numbers add context to that anxiety. Recent job growth has slowed compared with the pace seen during the Biden years, when monthly gains were substantially higher. At the same time, polling suggests voters increasingly credit Democrats, not Republicans, with being more committed to lowering energy costs. On immigration — traditionally considered a Republican strength — disapproval of Trump’s approach has climbed, with majorities saying enforcement agencies like ICE and Border Patrol have gone too far. Together, these trends suggest a widening gap between the administration’s messaging and public perception on a key issue, immigration.

I also examined the real-world impact of Trump’s tariff policies. Analyses from the Tax Foundation estimate that existing tariffs have already cost the average US household about $1,000 per year in higher prices, with projections rising to roughly $1,300. Findings from the Congressional Budget Office reinforce that burden, concluding that the overwhelming majority of tariff costs — 95%! — are passed directly to consumers. In practical terms, tariffs function as taxes on imported goods that, as CBO shows, businesses largely transfer to shoppers. That means higher inflation for us all.

Another fascinating developed: Trump’s recent criticism of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the Elon Musk-backed initiative that aggressively downsized federal agencies. Trump now describes the cuts as overly haphazard, and suggests he preferred a more selective approach. That shift reads as political panic in the face of bad polling as we come up on the November midterms. After months of sweeping reductions that affected education, foreign aid, and other core functions, Trump is suddenly NOW worried about DOGE? Someone got to Trump. (Also, let me add, the notion that Trump had no say over what DOGE cut? Come on.)

Finally, I touched on the international reaction to Trump’s proposed “Board of Peace,” an organization that Trump clearly intends as an alternative to the UN. Key European countries such as Poland and Italy have just declined to participate, signaling skepticism about a structure that concentrates ultimate veto power in the Trump’s hands, and requires substantial financial buy-ins — to the tune of $1 billion — from member states.

Taken together, the stories in this morning’s update trace a common thread: intensifying friction between power and accountability. From congressional oversight battles and economic unease to shifting political strategies and international pushback, the administration is operating in an environment where scrutiny is rising, and public patience appears to be thinning. All of that is bad news for Trump, but good news for America, as we quickly head towards the November congressional elections.

And that is today’s update. Come back this evening at 6pm ET for my live show about the day’s news.

JOHN

Thanks for reading The Aravosis Report - by John Aravosis! This post is public so feel free to share it.

I opened with reporting from Miami Herald journalist Julie Brown, who has covered the Jeffrey Epstein case for years. Brown reports that in 2006, as Epstein’s criminal investigation was becoming public, Donald Trump called the Palm Beach police chief to say that Epstein’s activities with underage girls were widely known. That account sharply contrasts with Trump’s later public claim that he had no knowledge Epstein had molested girls. The tension here isn’t just historical trivia. It raises questions about credibility and consistency. Trump allies may try to frame the 2006 call as evidence he was sounding the alarm early. But it also highlights a clear discrepancy between what he privately acknowledged and what he later told the public. To put a finer point on it: If Trump did nothing wrong, why did he lie about it?

From there I turned to a story suggesting possible favoritism in US-Canada infrastructure politics. Reporting indicates that the billionaire owner of the long-standing Ambassador Bridge met with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick shortly before Trump publicly attacked a competing bridge project and threatened to block its opening unless Canada made concessions. The sequence of events is troubling, to say the least. When a private business interest appears to gain leverage after a high-level meeting and is followed by presidential pressure on a foreign partner, it raises legitimate concerns about whether public policy is being shaped by private corporate influence. Something we know Trump has done time and again.

Polling offered another notable data point. A Rasmussen survey — a solidly-Republican polling firm — asked Americans who did a better job as president: Joe Biden or Donald Trump. Biden led by a good margin. The significance isn’t just the numbers themselves, but the source. When even a pollster known for results that favor Republicans shows Biden ahead on that question, it suggests broader public dissatisfaction with Trump’s performance than his supporters might expect.

I also focused on Trump’s recent comments about inflation. He claimed Democrats no longer talk about “affordability” because he “fixed” inflation. That assertion collides with economic reality. Inflation remains elevated relative to ideal targets — it should be 2%, it’s currently 3% — and consumers continue to face high prices, particularly in food and household goods. Declaring the problem solved risks signaling that the administration sees no need for further action. For voters still dealing with higher costs, that disconnect between rhetoric and lived experience could become politically significant come the November mid-terms.

Another important, and creepy, topic is a proposed Trump administration rule affecting travelers from countries that currently enjoy visa-free travel to the US. The proposal would require applicants to disclose extensive personal information, including years of social media account identifiers, a decade of email addresses, phone histories, and detailed family data. Supporters may argue this enhances security screening. Critics worry about privacy, data aggregation, and the chilling effect on forcing travelers. Think about it: Do you have a private email address you use for “personal” things? Would you like Donald Trump knowing that email yours?

And finally, one of the most disturbing stories in today’s update involves reports that Donald Trump has pushed to pursue criminal action against several Democratic members of Congress after they publicly reminded US service members that US troops are required by law to refuse unlawful orders. The lawmakers were restating a basic principle of military and constitutional law, not inventing a new rule or encouraging insubordination. What makes this episode significant is the precedent of using the machinery of government to threaten elected officials for accurately describing the law, and more generally, speaking their mind about public policy issues of the day. That matters because democracies depend on open debate about executive power and its limits. If political speech by members of Congress can be framed as criminal simply because it challenges a president, it risks normalizing retaliation against opposition voices and weakening one of the core safeguards of the American system — the ability to question authority without fear of prosecution.

That’s today’s update. Make sure to check out my live show tonight at 6pm ET on TikTok and YouTube. Thanks everyone.

JOHN

The flashpoint this time was Bad Bunny’s big broadcast performance. If you watched it, you probably saw what I saw: a high-energy, visually striking show centered on music, dance, and — ultimately — a message about unity and love. If you only followed conservative media reaction, though, you’d think it was a national scandal.

The Republican critique boiled down to two complaints. First, that the performance was “too sexual.” At one point Bad Bunny grabbed his crotch — heaven forbid! And the dancers were suggestive. In other words, it looked like Latin dance — expressive, rhythmic, and yes, sensual. None of this was outside the norms of modern pop performance. And, if anything, it was TAME compared to most of what’s out there nowadays. It certainly wasn’t more provocative than what American audiences have seen for decades from mainstream artists. (Remember the infamous wardrobe malfunction.) Yet suddenly it was treated as evidence of cultural decline. Because MAGA.

The second complaint was even stranger: that the performance was largely in Spanish. Commentators like Megyn Kelly argued this was somehow a slight against Americans who didn’t understand the lyrics. But Americans consume foreign-language music and film all the time. We celebrate international artists. The idea that hearing Spanish on a major broadcast is an offense says more about the critic than the performance. They’re not saying it because they have a problem with Spanish — their problem is Latinos, and dark-skinned people, of any language.

What made the reaction especially striking was the broader context. We’re in the middle of serious, unresolved questions about the Epstein files and transparency at the highest levels of government. There are credible concerns about accountability, ethics, and the rule of law. And yet a significant slice of conservative media energy was directed at policing dance choreography and language choice in a musical performance, while our Epstein-cavorting commerce secretary still has a job.

The irony is that Bad Bunny didn’t deliver the confrontational political spectacle critics were bracing for. Instead, he framed the show around love and solidarity — the idea that the only effective answer to hate is connection. It was a unifying message. And in a way, that may have been what frustrated his detractors most. They were primed for a fight and got a call for empathy instead.

The same pattern showed up in another story circulating last night about the Olympics. A freestyle skier, Hunter Hess, was accused by MAGA of saying he was “embarrassed” to represent the United States. The claim spread quickly through right-wing channels. The problem is that he never said that. It was a distortion that took on a life of its own because it fit an existing narrative about supposed anti-American sentiment.

This is how modern outrage cycles work. A misleading or exaggerated claim appears. It’s amplified by commentators who benefit from audience anger. Within hours, it becomes a talking point untethered from the underlying facts. By the time corrections arrive, the emotional impact has already done its job. And that’s assuming anyone ever even hears the truth at all.

None of this is accidental. Culture-war flashpoints are politically efficient. They’re emotionally charged, easy to package, and require little policy knowledge to debate. And best of all for Trump and the Republicans, the faux-scandals pull attention away from complex structural issues — economic inequality, governance, institutional accountability — and, oh, I don’t know, inflation? — and redirect it toward symbolic battles over identity and aesthetics.

The Bad Bunny controversy and the Olympic skier misquote are small stories in isolation. Together, they illustrate a larger ecosystem that rewards outrage over accuracy and spectacle over substance. As media consumers, we have more agency than we sometimes think. We can choose to engage with stories proportionally, to verify before amplifying, and to keep our focus on issues that shape people’s actual lives.

That’s part of what I want this Substack to do: step back from the noise, connect the dots, and ask what deserves sustained attention. The daily news cycle will always produce its share of viral moments. Not all of them are equal. The challenge is separating the fleeting from the consequential — and refusing to let the loudest voices dictate what counts as important.

Okay, that’s it for today’s show. Like I said, I will “try” to do this more often, to really get my substack going. If you’re a subscriber of any stripe, thank you for that. And if you want to support me financially, as this is my full-time job — putting myself out there on social media — I would very much appreciate it.

Thanks guys. JOHN

I tend to do more writing than podcasting for you folks here, but if you enjoy this medium, I will do it more often.

Thanks, JOHN

CyberDisobedience - by John Aravosis is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

In Other News

Trump just endorsed the Russian invasion of Ukraine

I tweeted a funny

Former top Trump White House official is mad at me

The Republicans clearly shared a talking point today saying “notice how Putin didn’t invade while Trump was president.” Suggesting that Putin was afraid of Trump. One of the people who tweeted about it was former Trump White House official Ric Grenell. Or as I call him, Dick Grenell.

Speaking of Ric Grenell, apparently Republicans are now pro-Putin and pro-diarrhea

And here’s another response to Hugh Hewitt, who was sharing the same GOP talking point

The US Embassy in Ukraine is (successfully) trolling the Russians

In his speech last night, Putin claimed that Ukraine doesn’t really exist, and Russia created it. Our embassy tweeted this in response.

Meanwhile, Glenn Greenwald is busy defending his boyfriend again

This was my reply:

Biden’s anti-drug policies are going so well, even the GOP is giving him credit for stopping the flow of drugs at the border!

Because art is cool!

This bubbles on this painting look real. They’re not. Zoom in.

Talk to you all again soon.

JOHN

CyberDisobedience - by John Aravosis is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

The WSJ, you’ll be surprised to hear, is the one lying. And, in fact, their editorial proves the need for legislation to stop the GOP from stealing the presidency in 2024.

Rather than write out the rest of my thesis, I decided to record it as a short 15-minute podcast, that you can listen to above.

Enjoy.

JOHN

If you’re a free subscriber, consider upgrading your subscription to only $5 per month to help support my work. Thanks so much, JOHN

In other news

Free Covid tests from the US Government

Go to CovidTests.gov and order them now. Four per household.

Free N-95 masks starting next week

President Biden has ordered 400,000,000 N-95 masks from the US strategic stockpile be provided to pharmacies and community health centers around the country, so that they can be given out for free to you and me. No word yet on how many per person — I assume one — or how pharmacies are going to limit the number. But it’s a good start.

Tucker Carlson continues to do Putin’s bidding

Oh, and he’s lying. Ukraine is not under NATO’s control.

Trump accused of fraud

New York’s attorney general says she’s uncovered “significant evidence indicating that the Trump Organization used fraudulent and misleading asset valuations on multiple properties to obtain economic benefits, including loans, insurance coverage, and tax deductions for years.”

Gorsuch is an awful human being

NPR reports that Chief Justice John Roberts asked all the justices to wear masks, during recent in-person oral arguments, in order to protect Justice Sotomayor, who has diabetes, from the very real risk of dying should she catch Covid. Gorsuch refused. So Sotomayor has been forced to beam in remotely, in order to protect her life. Someone should ask Roberts why Gorsuch isn’t being required to beam in remotely.

Oh, update! Gorsuch and Sotomayor released a statement that only makes things worse:

Matt Gaetz’s ex-gf granted immunity

The ex-girlfriend of GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz, under FBI investigation for possible child sex trafficking and obstruction, was just granted immunity from prosecution in exchange for her grand jury testimony. Ruh roh.

Mr. Meghan McCain no longer wants to visit Australia

They’re all such snowflakes. As Molly Jong-Fast tweeted, imagine caring this much about another country’s vaccine protocols.

Thanks as always for reading. Let me close with a neat photo of Martin Luther King riding a bike.

JOHN

This means that this wasn’t just some deal that OAN got that every company on DirectTV gets. This means that OAN and AT&T appeared to have some kind of quid pro quo for positive coverage. What did AT&T provide OAN in return for its secret promise to cover AT&T in a positive light? And are we to believe that the most senior levels of AT&T knew nothing about their intimate relationship with OAN, after AT&T tried to buy a 5% interest in the company?

It’s starting to appear as if AT&T knew perfectly well what it was doing. It was creating and financing the seeds of an other Insurrection.

And that’s the topic of today’s podcast I’ve created just for you folks.

JOHN

PS Let me just one more time post the video, from earlier this summer, of an OAN host calling for the mass execution of tens of thousands of Americans who “stole” the 2020 election from Donald Trump. Genocide, proudly brought to you by AT&T.

But we’re not. We’re talking about Infrastructure. And Covid. And the economy. And Afghanistan. All good topics. But none of those are going to matter if we lose our Republic. None of those are going to matter if Donald Trump becomes president again in 2024. The kleptocracy, and fascist state, he is going to usher in, in a second term, will be unimaginable. The man inspired, and cheered on, an attempt to violently overthrow our government. Put nothing past him at this point.

I’ve decided to continue this essay as a podcast, recorded exclusively for you folks. (I.e., this isn’t going up on our regular podcast.) I just feel like I can expressive myself better on this topic via audio. So check out the audio at the top of the page for my 15-minute oral essay about Trump’s resurgence and Democratic messaging.

In other news

Honoring the Covid dead on the National Mall

Tens of Trump supporters showed up at the US Capitol protest on Saturday

This was the pro-Trump rally to protest the “political prisoners” who arrested for the January 6th Insurrection:

There were more police and journalists there than protesters:

Mike Pence seems to think he’s going to run for president

It’s not entirely clear who Pence thinks is going to vote for him. Democrats hate him, and Republicans wanted to hang him on January 6th.

An awful move by Apple and Google

Facebook has some explaining to do as well — this is just abominable

Madison Cawthorn is dumb as a brick

The history of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell

Adorbs

Morgan Fairchild is just the nicest person

I continue to be amazed how Morgan Fairchild was so good at playing the nastiest women on the planet, and yet, she’s just the nicest lady ever. Watch this short video.

Finally, I want to be mauled by puppies

Hope you enjoyed this update. I tried something a little different. Let me know how you like the podcast option.

Thanks, JOHN